Can’t wait for people to pretend this is a made up stat, too
We don’t live in our fears because our fears live in us
If Tomlin is the best 1 score game coach in the league is it reasonable to think everyone else is doing it wrong?
I’m surprised Dan Campbell even uses a roster spot for a punter at this point.
Win probability is a made up statistic
Tomlin has no fear and so are our team.
I really find this Will they/wont they Tomlin Love/Hate shit so boring. Worst part of hte bye week/off season is you people getting bored. Jesus fuck. Theres just as many charts that show tomlin as one of the GOAT’s as one of the shitters
Just watch the game, have fun, get mad, but don’t get so dang angry man. jesus
Feels like it used to be the other way, I guess it’s different when you can have Le’Veon dance behind the line for 10 seconds before being tackled half a yard short.
Love how much this sub hates “made up stats” like PFF until it can be used to bash Tomlin lmao
Fire Mike Tomlin
But they only lost one game….how dumb are you??
This is somehow a dumber stat than theoretical sacks.
If I have to read it 3 times to understand what it’s trying to say, it’s definitely some imaginary PFF bullshit. How we get there isn’t important, what truly matters is all the imaginary stats we didn’t pick up along the way.
Anyone who has watched the win probability charts over the course of games knows that they will swing wildly even late in games and don’t seem particularly accurate. This chart is even sillier. Does it assume the team would make every 4th down conversion? A punt is better than a failed 4th down. I’m not even a hater of modern analytics, but for some reason people pretend like every 4th down is a guarantee. There’s obviously different decision making on 4th and short based on confidence in your offense vs the defense. If you’re the Eagles, then 4th and short is almost guaranteed. For other teams that is not true.
This is a weird metric.
Could have easily told you this by the weekly 2nd half heart attack we al experience
So the way they would likely calculate this is to take variables from situations where teams “went for it” and where they punted and then average 1s and 0s, essentially.
But teams that go for it tend to be ones that are very successful. This generally makes them win most games. 1st downs are very good!
Teams that don’t go for it are not doing it because they are not very successful at attempts. Teams that are not successful at it tend to have bad offenses. This also makes them lose more games overall in general.
This means that the samples are not really equal and the wp of going for it overrepresents teams like the eagles and lions who always go for it, *and* are very successful. The avg success rate is heavily determined before the attempt because the eagles coach knows that his teams tush push is almost impossible to stop, and it is.
The Steelers have not had good results in recent history when we go for it on 4th down, so Tomlin doesn’t like to do that, and he’d rather rely on our best players, (who are on defense). This could very well be a *more” successful decision, because the model is not magic. It’s not even really that appropriate or likely that accurate.
17 comments
Can’t wait for people to pretend this is a made up stat, too
We don’t live in our fears because our fears live in us
If Tomlin is the best 1 score game coach in the league is it reasonable to think everyone else is doing it wrong?
I’m surprised Dan Campbell even uses a roster spot for a punter at this point.
Win probability is a made up statistic
Tomlin has no fear and so are our team.
I really find this Will they/wont they Tomlin Love/Hate shit so boring. Worst part of hte bye week/off season is you people getting bored. Jesus fuck. Theres just as many charts that show tomlin as one of the GOAT’s as one of the shitters
Just watch the game, have fun, get mad, but don’t get so dang angry man. jesus
Feels like it used to be the other way, I guess it’s different when you can have Le’Veon dance behind the line for 10 seconds before being tackled half a yard short.
Love how much this sub hates “made up stats” like PFF until it can be used to bash Tomlin lmao
Fire Mike Tomlin
But they only lost one game….how dumb are you??
This is somehow a dumber stat than theoretical sacks.
If I have to read it 3 times to understand what it’s trying to say, it’s definitely some imaginary PFF bullshit. How we get there isn’t important, what truly matters is all the imaginary stats we didn’t pick up along the way.
Anyone who has watched the win probability charts over the course of games knows that they will swing wildly even late in games and don’t seem particularly accurate. This chart is even sillier. Does it assume the team would make every 4th down conversion? A punt is better than a failed 4th down. I’m not even a hater of modern analytics, but for some reason people pretend like every 4th down is a guarantee. There’s obviously different decision making on 4th and short based on confidence in your offense vs the defense. If you’re the Eagles, then 4th and short is almost guaranteed. For other teams that is not true.
This is a weird metric.
Could have easily told you this by the weekly 2nd half heart attack we al experience
So the way they would likely calculate this is to take variables from situations where teams “went for it” and where they punted and then average 1s and 0s, essentially.
But teams that go for it tend to be ones that are very successful. This generally makes them win most games. 1st downs are very good!
Teams that don’t go for it are not doing it because they are not very successful at attempts. Teams that are not successful at it tend to have bad offenses. This also makes them lose more games overall in general.
This means that the samples are not really equal and the wp of going for it overrepresents teams like the eagles and lions who always go for it, *and* are very successful. The avg success rate is heavily determined before the attempt because the eagles coach knows that his teams tush push is almost impossible to stop, and it is.
The Steelers have not had good results in recent history when we go for it on 4th down, so Tomlin doesn’t like to do that, and he’d rather rely on our best players, (who are on defense). This could very well be a *more” successful decision, because the model is not magic. It’s not even really that appropriate or likely that accurate.