It's obviously been a rough start to the season and I absolutely understand why people are frustrated. Sadly, it's what I anticipated as we entered the season. I think that any lack of quality on the field this season is a direct reflection of the gross mismanagement of this organization in general and especially when they went "all-in" on Aaron Rodgers. It's not the Rodgers move that is devastating itself, but instead the fact that they extended him – creating a $21MM cap hit this year and a $35MM cap hit next year. They also extended CJ Mosley (and pushed his dead money down the road – $8.8MM this year and $7.65MM next year), traded an upcoming 3rd round pick for Haason Reddick, gave up the 92nd pick in this past draft for Davante Adams, signed Mike Williams (dead cap this year), Javon Kinlaw (dead cap this year), Tyron Smith (dead cap this year), Tyler Conklin (surprisingly high dead cap this year).

Douglas let Bryce Huff go (seemingly to make room for players like Williams, Smith, and Kinlaw. As a result he drafted Will McDonald in the 1st round instead of addressing an acute long-term need at WR with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. They were in so much need at tackle because of multiple failures that they needed to grab Olu Fashanu in 2024 instead of taking Brock Bowers or one of a number of excellent edge prospects.

Mougey made no such mistakes in the draft – at least in my opinion. He drafted the best player available in the first round (Membou) and worked to fill positions of dire need after. Mason Taylor looks excellent and there is significant upside in Smith and Moore. Moreover, he didn't sign anyone in free agency to ridiculous contracts. Yes, Stevens was an overpay, but he fits the new scheme and is a two-year lottery ticket (his dead cap would only be $2MM in 2027). Fields is a two year lottery ticket as well (one that doesn't look like it'll cash in, for sure). The money they gave to all other free agents was nominal and doesn't extend significantly into the future. Again, these are lottery tickets. If they hit, fantastic! You have a chance to sign them to an extension. If not…well…good luck.

The draft looks like it will yield a few top QB prospects and the Jets have at least a decent offensive line. They avoided what would likely have been a bad contract extension with AVT and have their best players signed long-term.

So far I give Mougey an A- both for the quality picks at the top of the draft as well as looking for value in free agency. The only thing keeping him from an "A" is that Daniel Jones is looking like he might be the redemption story out of this free agency class and the Jets could have easily had him and that Stevens was an overpay – even if it doesn't come at a significant cap hit down the road.

With respect to the coaching staff, I'm waiting to pass judgement until the Jets have a league average (in practice, not statistics) starting quarterback – let alone a better 2nd WR (I really like Reynolds on the field regularly, but not as WR2) – and a healthy pass rush. Without the former, the offense will always be limited. Without the latter, the entire defense is exposed – especially in a scheme that features more man coverage.

I happen to like the defense that Wilks runs and believe it will play really well – especially with Sauce as a CB1. It's all just about the pass rush from here. I think a flier on Drake Jackson would be ideal in the short term with a long term vision of upgrading in the draft. That being said, if any coach doesn't make it through this season, it should be Wilks. At some point in time, the defense needs to be able to stop the big play OR generate significant pressure. An inability to do either is quite problematic.

Long story short (too late!), this team is – at best – two drafts away. This year they need to address QB and either WR or EDGE at the top of the draft and next year they need to go EDGE/WR and likely fill in holes on the offensive line. I don't think it's terrible business to sign Breece Hall to a reasonable three year extension (in the range of what James Cook or Josh Jacobs received) if they're not confident in what Allen/Davis can provide to a new QB and offer AVT a prove it contract. Outside of that, it's essential that they get Moore, Brownlee, Smith, Thomas, and the other young guys as much playing time as possible this year to see what they have in them.

25 comments

  1. I appreciate the optimism! I agree about drafting a QB. This will arguably be the best situation the jets have provided for a rookie QB since Sanchez. If the jets have a top five pick they gotta pull the trigger

  2. Not bad, I personally think we should flip breece for picks, teams like KC and bengals are in desperate need of a back and are in win now mode. No point paying over the odds for a RB at this stage, draft a QB, get another weapon or new RB cheap and invest the money and picks into shoring up the online even more since avt seems to have injury concerns.

  3. Joe wasn’t going to draft JSN. By all accounts he wasnt on our draft board. Example number 10000 of “Douglas could not evaluate wide receivers to save his life”

  4. i agree with you 100%. if we ever wanna be taken seriously as an organization and a fanbase we need to think logically and show patience. it sucks we have been the laughing stock of the league for ever. but when we finally turn it around and win no body is going to care how long it took. its the fact that we did it thats going to be remembered. especially if we happen to build a dynasty in our quest for a championship.

  5. This defense is the biggest worry. Listening to NFL Daily, Jordan Rodrigue, she pointed out the defense is a Frankenstein of Aaron Glenn’s defense and Wilk’s scheme…creating an awful combo and one that Sauce doesn’t fit for having to pass off coverage in man.

    That inability to self assess how bad that (defense) is being implemented and not adjusted is hugely worrisome for a new staff.

    The penalties can happen when implementing a new system, specifically this offense.

    Penalties and turnovers can lose you games, but so does bad scheme/bad coaching and it certainly doesn’t help you overcome a bad call or fumble…

  7. $58M in QB contracts for Rodgers and Fields in 2026.

    The defense is so far behind the offense right now and needs talent and depth. No QB is going to be good with the worst defense the league has seen in years.

  11. I’m pretty sure we’re two owners away from competence, not two drafts. Sell the team to Gary Vee and they might win.

  12. I stopped reading when you gave Moug an A-… is that you Moug? That’s absolutely ridiculous given the state of this team right now.

  13. So do you keep Quinnen? You think we’re at least 2 drafts away. He’ll be 30 in three years.

  17. I just don’t have any optimism anymore. The last two seasons broke me. I have been a jets fan a long time and I just don’t evaluate their chances anymore. I don’t let them anger me anymore

  20. I appreciate the zoomed out view, and generally agree.

    Defense:
    I know people reference the 0-8 Dan Campbell start but I continually turn to the 32nd rank pass defense that Saleh had in his first year. Year 1 was filled with stubborn cover 3 defense that felt 5 years obsolete and I was legitimately concerned about Jeff Ulbrich and the defensive minded HC.

    Similarly, Glenn runs a very different defense than Saleh, and it’s an ongoing study to see how he blends the existing personnel with the personnel he prefers. He values versatile LBs and Safeties, and big bodies at CB and EDGE. He’s allowed to miss on guys like Stephen’s and Cisco but those are positions where I expect him to create excess value the way Saleh did with Huff, JFM, and Quincy Williams.

    WM4 is not a typical Glenn type player but he’s too talented to waste so I expect Glenn needs to find a way to maximize him in way that he hasn’t shown in the past.

    I don’t know if Wilks should be fired or not, and truthfully it’s hard to know what the target is this year in a transition year, but he certainly can’t be untouchable. Progress needs to be made beyond what is currently being shown. Even something as simple as AZ Thomas and/or Malachi Moore showing they can be contributors or running unorthodox schemes that maximize this Edge group and LB group are signs of positive progress I can support.

    OFFENSE:
    I think the offensive woes are overstated. Yes Fields has gotten off to slow starts the last few weeks, he also has been able to use his athleticism to uncork the offense in ways only he can.

    Last year it felt like the offense was just 2 options: GW and a banged up Breece. This year it feel like it’s GW, a better looking Breece, a running fields, and possibly an emerging Mason Taylor.

    In my opinion most functional offenses have 3-4 options on any given play.

    If Mason Taylor continues to progress to become a legitimate 2nd/3rd option like he has the last couple of weeks, it will be a major step forward for the offensive architecture. It will allow a fair evaluation of fields (TBH I think I want to see a few weeks of Tyrod atleast as a baselining exercise to evaluate an Engrstrand offense with a pocket passer who plays more on time), and it will expose the actual areas where this team needs to improve. Fields’ playstyle is both exciting and limiting – it can highlight problems and mask problems. I’m curious to see what this turns into.

    PENALTIES:
    I’m not as concerned with the PIs, I think those will get sorted out. What I am concerned with is th operational penalties on offense. I feel like there are so many False starts, illegal procedures. Similarly we saw Chop Robinson run right past Membou because Fields telegraphed the snap count. I don’t know if this is an issue with Fields, Engstrand, or Glenn. But this is without a doubt the number one thing that needs to be fixed, and does yesterday. If it means benching fields and losing that explosive QB run dimension then I think it’s worth it, because these plays ruin all momentum and has them consistently behind the sticks in a way that takes them out of their own game script.

  21. Giving Mougey an A- is insanity. the fifth round looks like a disaster so far. Two of the picks look unplayable (one was traded up for)

    Before you say “it’s a fifth round pick…”. Well, when you give such a high grade, the raises the expectation. There are fifth round picks contributing positively right now across the league

    You could give him credit for not tying up to the team to bad contracts but can’t just catapult him. I could see the logic in giving him an Incomplete and wait to see how things pan out, but an A-?? For this team??

    Absurd

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