New York Islanders 2025-2026 FULL Season Preview

New York Islanders 2025-2026 FULL Season Preview

Absolutely. So, yeah, we’ve got a lot to get into because we’re going to like we do every year breakdown of each individual player that was named to the roster um and and then give our our standings for for the the division. So, without much further ado, you want to get right into it? Player number one here. Yeah. So, uh Mitch laid it out pretty good. And the reason we do this is one, it’s fun to go through and give our predictions for every player, but something we also like to do at the end of the year, we go back and see like what our expectations were, who overachieved or underachieved, and kind of go from there, who was right, who was wrong. It’s fun. So, if you want to play along at home, you can do that as well. We’ll start with the forwards, kind of go through. There’s not really a huge rhyme or reason to the order in which these guys are listed out, but we go forwards, defenseman, goalies. We’ll do standings predictions and kind of final predictions and thoughts here. But Anthony Duclair is first up on the list. How many games is the Duke playing? I think we got to start there. Mitch, I put 60. So, a lot of these obviously going to be pretty round numbers. We’re not 81 and a half games. Like, it’s not going to be anything very specific obviously because we’re rounding here. I I’m at 60. Um, we’re still not 100% sure if he’s 100%. Uh, he might be. He looked fine, but you never know. Uh, and there’s so much depth on this roster that I just don’t I don’t predict him playing a full season. So, I I’ve got him at 60 games. What about you? Where you at in terms of games played? I have him at 70. So, a little bit more, but I don’t think he plays a full season. And when I was going through and giving my predictions, Mitch, yeah, it was I had a few guys where I was like, I don’t know what I’m going to predict for for them. And Dlair was one of those guys for me. Yeah. And a lot of that is because I don’t know where he’s going to play in the lineup and there’s a lot of guys like that on this team. Assuming he’s going to start on the fourth line with Sikas and Siplov that could obviously change very quickly, but I landed on 15 goals, 17 assists, and 32 points for Anthony Duclair this year. Okay. Yes, I’m I I did a lot of rounding for for a lot of players. uh some players not because anyways I had more a better idea but I’m assuming he’s relatively healthy and we see a regular Anthony Duclar season at 10 goals 20 assists for 30 points. Okay, maybe someone have it flipped where he scores 20 goals and adds 10 assists. Um but it’s really going to be dependent on who he plays with and so I’m sitting at 10 and 20 for 30 type of thing at the end of the year which you know half point per game you’ll sign up for that Duke. Yeah. Oh, well, yeah, half point for for you because you have him in in 60 games. You would absolutely would sign up for for that. And the reason why and part of the reason why I kind of I think went a little bit lower on what his career averages is one don’t know what he’s going to be like coming off the injury. And number two, he’s starting on the fourth line. And I I know it’s not, you know, Martin Sikas Clutterbuck’s fourth line, but you know, he’s not playing with Barzal, he’s not playing with Horvat. That can, as we mentioned, that could obviously change, but I went a little bit more conservative, I think, with Anthony Duclair on my predictions. Yeah. And like now that I I say it out loud. This is what happens whenever you do a prediction. Like you think of something, you put it down, then you speak it, and you’re going you start poking your own holes in your own thing. And I think we’re going to go through this throughout this entire thing, at least myself anyways, because I have very little confidence in anything that ever comes out of my mouth. um is you’re going well if I don’t predict him to to or predict him to play 60 games because there’s depth on the roster why would you take out a half point per game player out of the roster. That’s where I’m kind of like I can understand anyone who pokes holes on like well why would you take out a half point per game player? Maybe it’s I think it’s like injury but like es and flows. We’ve seen it right like plays really well kind of falls off. Well, we haven’t seen it. We’ve seen it what other teams when he’s played for them on the 65 other teams he’s played on in the league. Yeah. every other team times two. Um, very bow like player is is effectively what I’m predicting from him. When he’s in, he’s in and outstanding, but when he’s not, it’s just really doesn’t like Patty said, doesn’t even belong there type of thing. Streaky. He’s he’s very streaky. And it probably averages out to somewhere in the middle, which I think, you know, we’re we’re pretty close on our predictions. You have him at 30 points. I’m at 32 with a little bit more games played on my end, but I don’t really know too many people who are going into the year with crazy high expectations that he’s going to be a 25 goal guy and 50 plus point player this year. No, I don’t I don’t think so either. Of course, the possibilities there. He’s got the tools in his locker, but it is unlikely. Hopefully, we are proved wrong. Duke, do it. Put the pie in our face, please. Please. All right. Bo Horvat’s up next. Bounceback year for Bo. Where where do you stand on Bo Horbat? I got 80 games played. Obviously not a full because you never know type of thing. 33 goals, 40 assists, 73 points. Uh what I wrote in my notes is returns to career average shooting percentage because he was a little bit lower this year. It was like 11.4 I believe this past season or it was 11.1 maybe and his career average is 13.4 something along those lines. He was 115 and his career average is 134. Right. And so if you put him at a 13-4 career era shooting uh shooting percentage with last year’s numbers, he’s added 30 the 33 30 I think a 30 goal pace. He wasn’t far off of it though to begin with. I think I think he scored like 25 or something. 28 28. Sorry. I get him and Lee confused. Lee had 25 and he had 28 something like that. Um I think he’s gonna have a pretty good year and I think he’s going to get a lot of shots with Barzy. I know where we’re not seeing them together right now. I just can’t see that continuing long term. Oh, okay. That’s uh in a way hot. It is, but it isn’t because it isn’t because we’ve seen it and it’s worked well together. But it is because they’re not starting the year together. Yeah. I I that’s where I’m at. I just don’t see going to give him 20 10 games maybe and it’s just going to be like we can’t do this anymore. We have to together because we know the Islanders are are in not inept but like lack offense. So I I can’t see them doing for too long. But that’s mine. What about you? What’s your What’s your Bo Horvat situation? So, I had him playing a full season, 82 games, 71 points, 31 goals, 40 assists. Okay. All right. We’re not far at all. Not far off, but he gets over 30 goals again. And uh not to play spoiler here because there’s a lot of names left, but I think he’ll lead the team in goals this year. Yeah, I want I want to find the person who says that it’s definitely not going to be Bohov leading the team in goals. I I want to find that person. I want to sit down with them and pick their brain because I want I want to understand the level of dulu they’re sitting in. Why are you the way that you are? Yeah. And I’ve tried to do doesn’t mean I’m going to crack the code. Like I’m friends with Spizz. I have not cracked the code in terms of the way he is. Um love him to death, but medical professionals can’t love him to death, but um it’s going to be the same thing for anyone who thinks that Bo Horvat is not going to lead the team in terms of goals this year. That seems like a lock. I would think so. Yeah. I want to I want to see if you’re going to do it. Matthew Barzal, are you predicting it for the fifth year in a row? No, I’m not. Um, for those wondering, it’s every year and like this is going to be his 30 goal season. I don’t think so. I think he’s going to be asked to do a lot more and play setup, man, for two too many other people. I still got him at 25 goals playing a full season, you know, fingers crossed. Yeah, but I’ve got him putting up a big year. 90 points, 25 goals, 65 assists, 90 points for Matthew Barcel. It’s a, you know, a vengeance tour almost. Not over anyone in specific, but just over the fact that he couldn’t play most of the season last year. Okay. I have him also playing a full season, 82 games, which I think that’s honestly most important because he’s missed a lot of time to the last three years. Um, 82 games. I had him 23 goals, 57 assists for a flat 80 points. Yeah. Point per game, Matthew Barzal. Like, yeah, right. I think that’s the floor. Maybe not the Yeah, the floor is obviously 60 points, but it would be wild to expect anything less than points per game from Ma Matthew Barzal, even though, you know, he didn’t really do that last year in the very limited sample sizes we we saw. Yeah, he he didn’t again, he didn’t play most of the year, unfortunately. So, uh the last time he did play a full year, I believe it was 80 points in 80 games. So, he was a perfect one, you know, uh, point per game guy. I think he’s around that. May I could see a world where it’s closer to 90. 90 feels a touch optimistic for for me. Not saying that he can’t get there, but I don’t feel comfortable with that as my official prediction. Can he do it? Yes. I’m going to go again a little bit more on the conservative side and say 80. Yeah. Watch. This is the year that he actually does 30 goals because they need more shooters. Yeah. Oh, agree. Please. But the one year I’m like, I’m going to back away from this. And he freaking does it. God damn it. That would make almost too much sense. Stupid piece of crap. What a dick doing this to me all the time. Um, okay. Next on the licks licks list. There we go. Is Maxim Tiplov. Where you got Maxim at? Okay. This was another tougher one for me. Um, I have him at 80 games, 12 goals, 24 assists, 36 points. Okay, I’m a little bit lower in terms of the points, but not by far. Like it it’s it’s not super close, but it’s not super far away. I have him at 75 games. And I think that that um identifies my kind of apprehension with what he’s going to be this year. Um it’s not to say that I don’t believe he can be a top six player. I think he could very well be at least a middle six player. They don’t have him there, right? They’re starting him on the fourth line. He’s got so many tools. If the conditioning is better this year, I think he could be better. I think I’m going to be wrong in terms of my prediction for for Big Max here. I got him again 75 games, seven goals, 20 assists for 27 points on the year. It’s not a lot. It’s not a lot of production. I think that’s just reflective of he’s going to play fourth line minutes on a lineup that that the fourth lineup’s probably going to be all over the place. Yeah. Um it’s he was one of the guys that I had a harder time with because his role and there’s a few duclair um I thought Heinaman was tough for me to predict and Shabanov was tough for me to predict. Those were probably the four toughest for me and that’s about what he did last year. 10 goals 35 points I think. And like I know it’s essentially the same season. A couple more goals and one more point. Yeah. I think that could be fine from him though. I I think he settles in somewhere in the bottom six. I could see him jumping up to the third line. Maybe he goes up higher than that into the top six. That there’s definitely talent there, but I think he ends up settling in as a bottom six guy. And if you have a bottom six guy, giving you 30, you know, 35 point, 35 to 40 points in a season. I think that’s okay. Oh, it’s absolutely okay. And it justifies his payday as well. Obviously, he would like more and we would like to give him more if he could do more. There’s there is the potential there. I think contextually we might see him bump up the lineup. You know, you play a big heavy team, you’re going to need a big heavy body up there perhaps. And so may maybe we see that, but he’s going to have to earn it. And so we’ll see if he does it this year. Again, potential is there, but I I’m I’m sure I’m going to be wrong. And I’m hoping to well I’m hoping to be wrong by anyone here in terms of at least being positive uh positively wrong. I think this is the one where I’m like I think I went too low on him. Okay. Janet Dang. Jonathan Druin. Godamn it. It sounds so stupid for me to say that. It doesn’t It doesn’t flow out of my dumb mouth that way. Oh, that that felt good to me. I liked I liked when you said it all Americanized and best. It was great. For the YouTube crowd, that one is seven. I have him at 75 games, 13 goals, 32 assists for 45 points. Okay. Yeah, we’re not far off at all. I have him at 60 games because you can’t predict he’s going to play a full season. He never almost never does, right? So, I’ve got him 60 point 60 games, 50 points. So, it’s not quite the uh hot take that I had at the beginning of the year where he’s got to be a point. He could very well be a point- per game player, which I said with like the most lack of conviction pos like the least the hottake with the least amount of conviction behind it ever on the face of the earth. That’s not good for sports talk. You’re supposed to come on and give your opinions and say that they are 100% factual and there’s no nuance ever. I’m right all the time. Yeah. I just there’s a there’s a potential there that I just can’t ignore. And so that’s where I’m going here with the 50 points. It’s probably a bit high. the 15 goals might be a bit high because he has not looked great at least in terms of shooting through the preseason. I say he figures it out. I say he figures it out. And 15 isn’t, you know, too far off from what he usually does. No, he had the one year over 20 goals, but in other seasons where he played close to full season, he had uh 13, 18, 19. He had 11 and 43 and 37 points. So, really productive, but in Colorado, much different situation than what he’s coming into here. Yeah, it’s going to be a Josh Bailey season, guys. Um that’s what I tried to do with my prediction. Yeah. So, we’re on the same wavelength and I think that’s going to be reflected through most of this here. But, it’s good to to say like, well, at least I’m not myself in Dulu land like coming up with these crazy predictions for these players because, you know, someone else independent of me, right? We did our lists independently came up with relatively the same thing. Feels good. Where you at with Kyle Pomeary? [Music] I’ve got him. I think it’s a 30 goal pace is what I wrote, but can’t play a full year. Mainly because we we we and I I was going to say trade him, but I’m thinking of someone else here. Um just doesn’t play a full year. It’s entirely possible he does. He did it last year, but I just a year older there. He’s carrying more weight because of the the beard isn’t going to be that heavy, Mitch. Come on now. Yeah. Now, maybe that brings him back to life because he’s got the beard. Perhaps I got him 65 games, 20 goals, 23 assists for 43 points. So like 20 over 65 isn’t quite 30. I think 20 over 65 times 82 is 25. Oh, okay. 25. Yeah. So I wrote 30 goal pace, but obviously my math isn’t mathing here. Uh I may have had the number higher earlier, but then as I looked at because you did a good thing here. You have the totals for the number of goals. I did that for a reason. Yeah. Yeah. It made me kind of like, okay, we I’ went way too high here in terms of number of goals scored. I don’t think that this offense could be that good. So, I had to bump a few players down, he being one of them, obviously. So, for me with Pomeary, I have him at 74 games. So, not a full season, but playing a little bit more than than you had him. Yeah, I have him at 47 points, 21 goals, 26 assists. I think the goal scoring comes down a touch and he gets it, you know, he’s another year older. Um, I I would love to see him be a 25 plus goal guy. He’s done that a few times for the Islanders. He’s gone over 30, you know, before, too, which is awesome. Um, I just think he comes slightly under goals-wise. Yeah. And I think that kind of speaks to us almost, not almost, but kind of believing that Matthew Barzal and Bo Horvette may be reunited at some point, which would be a detriment to Kyle Palmary, who is at this point slotted to play on on Matthew Barzal’s line. Um, if Kyle Pal has a setup guy like Matthew Barczal, that could help him a lot. And and if that works, that combination works, then maybe they don’t have to put Bo and Barzy together. But it’s it’s something you have to juggle in terms of, you know, the math here. Yeah, without a doubt. So, we’ll see there on Pal Mary. How about Anders Lee? He had a good year last year. Does he replicate that or does we see the some of the regression? I think we see some age regression, but he still plays well. I got him at 75 games, 20 goals, 25 assists, 45 points. Okay. So, it’s pretty classic Lee season. In terms of like pace-wise, I have him at a full 82 grinder. Still doing it at 35. There you go. And a pretty standard Anders League season. 28 goals, 22 assists, 50 points. Yeah. Okay. Um, it’s going to be a weird year for Lee, right? Contract year, 35 years old as you mentioned. We may have said this before, I think, because someone one of the patrons put in the comments. What is your where are you at now in terms of Andersly staying versus leaving in any way, shape, or form? Either not ressigned or traded. Um, I would say maybe like 30% he stays. Yeah. Okay, that seems fair, right? And then like maybe another 30% he walks and 40% he’s traded. Yeah. Okay, that’s fair. I think it’s slightly less than 50% that he’s traded. Yeah, because you think about like the the legacy of the player, the what they’re trying to do with the team. And of course, you don’t want to keep a guy who’s 35 going on 36. But if he’s still giving you, as you’re mentioning, like 25. You had him with 25 or 28 goals. 28. You can’t just let 28 goals walk out the door with the baggage that he’s got. Like the positive baggage that he Right. As your your captain and your leader. It Exactly. It’s hard. I I think it’s a it’s that to me is a tougher conver conversation. And like I totally get it. This team needs to get younger. We’ve said it for a long time. That kind of goes against the grain. Mhm. But if you’re getting Anders Lee on a cheap deal and he’s still productive, I don’t know. May maybe you think about it. Not obvious. Not obviously at the 7 million, but if you get him at two years for four million a pop, maybe you think about it. Yeah, you have to. You have to, man. Like, and it doesn’t have to cost you a ton of money and it’s not going to. like he’s at the end of his contract. He’s at the end of his career really. And he knows he knows like what am I going to do here? I’m going I’m going to hold him over a barrel for a buttload of money. You got your big payday, man. He got $49 million contract. Like he cashed in already. Exactly. Now, of course, the salaries have gone up. So like what would have been maybe a $2 million deal is probably like a $4 million deal for two years. Like it’s not $8 million, dude. And you don’t have to move your family at all. That’s huge. Of course, like I’m not moving costs or nothing in the NHL. The teams pay for that anyways. It’s you don’t have to uproot your life, which you’ve firmly established here on Long Island by not here physically, but here you listening probably. Yeah. He’s been here since what was he 2009 draft? 2008. That’s right. Yeah. Long time ago, man. Because we’re going on almost 20 years since the draft. Wild. Yeah, agreed. Okay, so we got Lee. What about PJO? Okay. Yeah, I think so. I’m gonna give a prediction and then my stat prediction. I think JG Pio was traded, so I don’t have a full I know, shocking, right? Uh I don’t have a full year for him. I think he plays like I don’t know. I put 57 games for the Islanders. Okay. 10 10 goals, 18 assists, 28 points. So 28 and 57, which I think is a pace of somewhere in the mid-40s. I’ll do it right now. Okay. 57 times 82 is exactly a 40 point pace. Okay. So, I’m a little bit higher in terms of what he paces out to, but that’s because I I gave him more games played for no particular reason whatsoever. I I didn’t I came to the same conclusion obviously that Jean Gabri Pio is traded by the deadline. Um not because we don’t want him, just because he’s valuable and we need to move on to do something different and he needs a shot a shot at a cup. Um, I have him at 65 games. I couldn’t do the math in terms of the number of games exactly at the deadline. So, I’m like I don’t know. It’s probably gonna be somewhere around that at the moment. Pretty close. It’s pretty close. Yeah. So, I have him at 10 goals, 25 assists, 35 points, which I believe paces out to 44 points. Yeah. I don’t know why I didn’t just add a column here and pace it out. I could just do that right now. It takes two seconds. What a dummy. Um, so yeah, that’s where I’ve got him now at 35 points. And like I if you’ve got him pacing out to 40 or in my case 44 points, is he worth a first round pick at the next at the trade deadline in your mind? I think yes. As crazy as that might sound, right? But people pay for depth all the time. a thirdline center who wins faceoffs. And if the Islanders are willing to retain money on that is very valuable to a team that is making a push towards a playoff spot. Look at what the Islanders paid for him. And I I get it. He was in his 20s is a little bit different, right? But teams get desperate. What does the team I don’t know if Edmonton has their first round pick or not this year that but using a team like that for example, Florida has a million injuries at center. Mhm. I know they don’t have a first round pick, but teams like that, they they push their chips to the table. Yeah. We’ve seen worse players than JG Pou get traded for first round picks. So, first plus, right? Like we’re only asking just a first, a singular first. Or it’s if you want plus, then I would say it’s probably a second plus. I don’t think it would be a first plus. But if you’re saying straight up 2026 first round pick JG Pejo, no no no extra, no notes, no nothing else, I I think that’s there’s a chance of that happening. Yes. Would you take instead of a first round pick, and we’re assuming it’s going to be a late first round pick here, um would you take not a blue chip prospect, but a a good prospect and a mid-round pick instead of a firstrounder, or would you absolutely need that first rounder? I’ll take the first rounder and I’ll tell you why. Okay. Yeah, not necessarily for the draft. I know the the Islanders had three first round picks this past year and they drafted in all three sele in all three spots. They took three players. Yeah, I think I’m trying to make some moves in the offseason, whether it’s packaging the Colorado pick and what you get for Pacio and moving up in the draft or trading for a young RFA. Who that is, I don’t have the answer for you right now. We don’t know who’s going to be available, you know, nine months from now or whatever it is, but I would rather the first round pick. I think that’s a more valuable asset. And I feel like I’m pretty comfortable with where the Islanders prospect situation is. I I want NHL young, not 28-year-olds, but young NHL talent. Yeah. I think the mystery of a first round pick is worth more. Not even just mystery, the giving the team the ability to get their own guy um is worth more for us, right? In terms of, you know, trading something than getting some guy who like is okay or good. We don’t need good prospects. We need we need blue chippers. And you’re not going to get that for for a peso trade first, a late round first. You can take that mystery and offload it for a lot more. So yeah, absolutely. May maybe a right-hand shot defenseman to pair with with uh or our boy who we’ll talk about in a little bit. Yeah, that would be out freaking standing because we don’t have any right hand unless Thomas Mahu which I haven’t watched at Providence just yet. Is that guy the chances of a seventh rounder being that guy or slim? Yeah. Uh that that might be a little generous there. Yeah. Where where you at with Simon Holmstrom? Oh, big year for Homie. Big year. 80 games, 25 goals, 55 points. Oh, okay. I went a little bit more conservative on Homestöm. I have 82 games, so full season, 22 goals, 46 points for for him. And yeah, why? I I was going to say I think part of it is deployment. He’s on the third line now. It doesn’t necessarily mean that he’s going to stay on that third line. I know there’s a lot of people predicting big years for Simon Holmstrom. I I’m I’m going to go on the on the pessimistic side for home. I I like Homestrom. I think he absolutely has the potential for 55 points. Mhm. I just don’t know if we’re going to get every single one of our guys on this list to have that hit reach their potential. If they do, then I think we’re looking at the Islanders as a 90 plus point team and a playoff team. I don’t think they are. So, I say he slightly underwhelms what the elevated expectations are, but still for Holmstrom, who is what, 24? Sounds right. 25. Didn’t he turn 25 in May? Is he 25 already? Oh, he was a 2019 draft pick. He might uh No, he’s 24. Yeah. So, a second straight 40point season for him around the same production what he did a year ago. I think that’s a reasonable bet for him. Fair. For me, it’s that I’m gonna blame Burns. Throw him under the bus here. Uh, when you look at that consistent shooting percentage, you’re like, you he just needs more ice time. That’s all he needs. You give him more ice time and you feed him the puck, if he’s shooting at that rate consistently, you why? And this team doesn’t have enough goal scorers as we’re going to see later there. There’s not enough goals in this team. Never is. And so if you’ve got a guy who’s just sitting there going, “Guys, I convert at nearly 20% every year.” Like, well then get him the goddamn puck. Please find a way to just stay there and I will bounce it off of you if I need to because you convert that frequently. That needs to be done right now. I don’t know why we wait on that. Yeah. And that’s fair. I just don’t know if we see it actually happen because there’s some other veterans who I think will be in front of him. I don’t know if I see Lee, Pomei, or Druan moving down. Although, Heinman, who we’ll get to in a little bit, is slotted higher. Maybe you can make the case that Homestrom should be there over Heinaman, but we’ll see. Perhaps. Uh, so let’s get to Case Zika’s first after Simon Holmstrom here. The fall of CC a little uh a little bit. I think he plays 72 games. I have him at 17 points, four goals, three uh 13 assists. Okay. I’ve got him 60 games. So like like you not playing a full year. Uh seven goals, 10 assists for 15. Sorry, seven goals. That is not how that works, Mitch. It was 510 for 15, a pace of 21. And I say the fall of CZ has begun. Yeah. I mean, he’s 34 years old playing a very physical position. It it’s going to happen eventually. So wouldn’t be the most shocking thing. And we’ve just seen him through preseason not like kind of struggle. So, I think I think the writing’s on the wall here. Um, I tend to agree with you there. And then I’ve got Kyle Mlan. I wrote we have new CC in Kyle Mlan. He plays 20 games. I wrote doesn’t score a lot of goals. I got him with two goals, four four assists. Uh, for a pace of 25 points over a full year. I have him at 27 games. So, a little bit more. Yeah. Two goals, eight assists, 10 points for ML. Okay. So, we’re pretty close there. I think that’s we found the new cases. Zeke is there in terms of as I think a crash and bang fourth line center is is where he he slots, which paced if he the 27 uh game pace over a full season is around 30 30 points, which might be generous for fourth line center, but I could see him taking over that role. It at least shows that you have confidence in his upside, his productive upside, that he’s not just a guy who’s going to, you know, battle, which is fine. There’s nothing wrong with that. But he can add some offense as well. Yeah, it depends on who he’s playing with. Like if he’s playing with Ciplov and either Haidaman or Druin, not Druin, excuse me, Dclair, then he’s probably going to rack up some assists, I would think, because they have some a goal scoring touch. Yeah. And they’ve got they’ve got some talent there, so that makes sense. What about Mark Gatkcom? Where this is very 14th forward, right? I had him at 35 games. Wow. More than what you were thinking. Okay. And I 10. Okay. I think uh it’s gonna it’s going to be explained in in a few guesses here or in a few when we get to a few people. Uh I think you have someone else playing significantly more games than than I do. um which I don’t love, but I don’t want to give too much away and spoil it. But I think nine nine points in 35 games. Yeah, I’ve got him um three points in 10 games. So goal and and sorry, two goals and one assist because he scores a little bit more than he provides assists on, which is still a pace of 25, but like the pace doesn’t really matter right now. It’s just like he just does stuff. Um for me, he’s going to get game time because there’s going to be some injuries, but not a ton. Okay. because there’s other guys in the lineup that could take that like Mark Gakh being one or sorry Kyle Mlan being one of them right and it depends on who gets hurt too can play center can’t really play center he can play either wing but he’s not a center where Mlan can play center or wing correctan what about him this is another tough one for me I have him at a full 82 I think he finds a spot and uh is good 15 uh 15 goals 15 assists 30 points Okay, I’m a little bit higher in terms of production and that’s mainly reflected in terms of where he’s slotted right now on the top line. They clearly like his speed. If that speed and we know he can shoot uh if that shot can translate into production, which I believe it can, I got him at 2020. So 40 points over a full 80game season. I think he eventually gets to a 20 goal guy. I don’t think this is the year for it. I think he has one like a positive tangible step forward cuz he was what 10 for 19 points last year I believe and the injury I know played a huge factor in that. Yes. Um I want to pull it up right now. He played uh 62 games uh 10 goals, eight assists, 18 points. Um, so he has 12 more points, plays a full season, scores five more goals, and then when he reaches his mid20s, I think that’s when we could see him start to maybe be a 20 goal guy. Fair. Fair. That’s totally fair. I think it’s going to be a little bit sooner, but you’re absolutely right. It could very well be another year of just kind of getting getting, you know, the games beat kind of with him again. Where you at with Shabonov? I don’t really know, man. I I wrote down Yeah, right. Because we have no idea. We’ve never seen him at the NHL level. We can, you know, postulate whatever we’ve seen from the KHL, but none of us know truly the one for one factor and it’s never applicable one for one. I have I I wrote Dan might be slow to show his true colors, which you know, he’s not been dynamic through preseason, but they’re flashes here and there. I have 70 games played because I don’t know if they’re going to like have to sit him for a sec to just get him refocused or whatever. 10 goals. I just don’t know if he’s going to be a crazy goal scorer at the NHL level. 25 assists for 35 points, a pace of 41 type of thing. Okay, I’m a little higher on Shave. Not much off of pace, but I have him playing more games. I think he plays 80 games, so essentially a full season. I have him at 16 goals, 30 assists, 46 points. Like Drewan, I tried to find a Josh Bailey like comparison. That’s what I think his first year in the NHL is going to be. It’s just when I look I if I remember correctly, his KHL numbers in terms of goals and assists were were pretty healthy. Yeah. Like 25 25 years ago, 23 44 last year. And this is in 63 games or 65 games, sorry. 1813 three years ago. Like he’s a pretty even split. So I feel like I’m not being fair enough for him in terms of his goal scoring abilities. Um, but I think because of he’s he’s going to take a little bit longer to adapt to the game, that is going to be something that’s going to take longer to figure out. Well, Siplav scored 30 in his last year in the KHL and then only had 10 goals in the NHL. So, right, not not always a one for one comp, so I wouldn’t beat yourself too much up over that one. No. Okay. Final forward. I think this is the guy you were hinting at earlier because it hasn’t come up yet. is Cal Richie. Yeah, I think he plays 39 games. And the reason for that is unfortunately after he is healthy, I think he goes to the AHL. And I want to see him in the NHL, but this is a prediction. This isn’t what it would Matt do. This is what I think is going to happen, what I think the Islanders are going to do. I don’t think we start to see him as a regular in the lineup until after uh JG Pou is traded. So, this is kind of more second half of the season, but I think he does pretty well. I had him at seven goals, 13 assists, 20 points in 39 games. Essentially a half a point per game player. I had him playing 60 games. I think once he comes back, he’s right in. Um they they clearly like what he’s doing there and and they want to develop him. They want him to develop as quickly as humanly possible and so they’re going to give him that NHL time, I believe. But my production is lower than yours. The numbers are are basically the same. I’ve got him at six goals, 15 assists for 21 points, a pace of 29 game, uh 29 points over a full season. I just think that because he’s still learning. Doesn’t mean that he’s not going to score. It’s just not going to be as crazy productive. It might take a little bit longer for his production to really shine at the NHL level, but that’s totally fine. he’s working on on his full 200 foot game and and I think that’s what we’re going to see shine this year as he’s learning the ropes. I think that’s our biggest difference so far is I think he’s going to play more and the production might not be there right away. I think it’s going to take him a little bit to play, but once he does, I think he hits his groove and proves like he’s a regular and going to be like the second line center next year kind of thing. Totally fair. Uh I think we’re ending up at the same place. We’re just taking different roads to get there. Yeah. Inter interesting though. I like that. All right, let’s do the defenseman. Alex Romanov up first. I have him playing 70 games because he’s probably going to get hurt at some point. Four goals. He’s not a big goal scorer. 26 assists for 30 points. Pace of 35, which is high for him. But if you look at this last 35 games played last year, he put up 30 plus a pace of 30 plus points over a full season. I like that. Right. It got me because I remember at the end of the year going like he put up a lot of points and he scored quite a few goals and I went and looked at it like sure enough he was over a 30-point player the last 35 games of the year and that’s a decent chunk of such decent sample size. There we go. I like that. I didn’t I didn’t go as optimistic, but I I like that you’re bullish on him because I also am a big Alex Romanov guy. I had him at 80, so mostly a full season, which on my part maybe a little too optimistic, but 28 points, four goals, 24 assists. So, not crazy off production wise, but I I have him playing closer to a full season and just under 30 points, right? And that makes sense. Like standard Alex Romanov year, maybe even healthier, right? Type of thing. So, yeah, a healthier year. Yeah. How about this guy, Matthew Shafir? I don’t know. How do you pronounce that? I don’t know. Uh I am I’m very excited to watch Matthew Schaefer play this year. I have him at 80 games. I think he plays essentially a full year. Yeah. Eight goals, 36 assists, 44 points. Okay. You have him as being more productive than I. But I fully well realized and I even kind of wrote it in my notes like we have no idea what his output can be. Um because he didn’t play a lot last year, right? He played 17 games. No, he’s the biggest wild card, right? And he was 18 years old go up until like a couple of weeks ago. He was 17 years old up until a couple weeks ago. Sorry. Right. He’s only 18 years old. Yes. Um so he doesn’t have a lot of like he has one full not college. I was going to say one full season of juniors under his belt. We have no idea what this kid can do other than like we’ve seen flashes. We don’t know what the ceiling is. I wrote six goals, 25 assists for a pace of 32 g 32 points over a full year. I haven’t play 80 games as well, but like it could be totally different. He was on pace for 23 to 30 goals in his draft year. I don’t know if he’s going to get the ice time for that, but like he might well as well get the ice time for that with what we’re going to talk about afterwards. You know what I I think yeah I what I think is going to play a big factor in this I know Tony D’Angelo’s the power play defenseman on the first power play right now. I think Matthew Schaefer ends up being the power play defenseman by the end of the year which that’s when we start to see it might be a slow burn. I think he starts slow but he just stride in the second half of the year. I it’s hard to I don’t know I think that first power play might have two defenseman on it. I don’t Schaefer might be a defenseman, but he’s really going to be a forward. I don’t hate that. You just have a guy back there to stop like twoon ones or two on’s type of thing. Yeah, I’m okay with that. Yeah. So, okay, we’re different in terms of the production there, but I I I believe yours would be obviously the most optimal, but like could be likelier. What about Pel? Does he play a full concussion free season? I had him at 55 games. Okay. Yeah. one goal, 18 assists, 19 points. Yeah, I’m not far off. 50 games played, two goals, 22 points. Um, that’s a bit high in terms of the the pace of 36. So, like maybe I could lower that a little bit, but the point here is that we don’t see we don’t expect the full season and we don’t expect Adam P to be very productive this year. No, un poorly productive, but like not like like crazy productive, which is about his standard for production, but I just He’s got to prove that he can play a full season again. I I’m not going to come out here and and predict it because we haven’t seen it in a long time. Yeah. So, I I’m just trying to revise my numbers here just to make the pace numbers work because I I I put that in just now for no particular reason. And so, I put two goals, 10 assists. So, that’s a pace of 20 points over a full season. And that that sounds right. Yeah. Um Ryan Pollock, what do you got him for? Uh I think he is mostly healthy this year, which is a big win. I have him at 78 games, four goals, 20 assists, 24 points. Okay. I have him at 50 games played. I I don’t see him playing a full year because of injuries. Okay. Four goals, 12 assists, pace of 26 points. Okay. I I hope he stays healthy. I I don’t know if the Islanders can afford to lose Pelican and Pak for for that long this year. I I totally agree like Adam Boowquist is great and all. Although Isaiah George might, you know, he might be ready, man. So maybe this is his key. Maybe this is his Devonte’s moment. Yeah, it it might end up being that. And I don’t have him listed on here, but maybe we we should have done that and put Isaiah George on there, but story for another day, I guess. Yeah, he was sent to Bridgeport, so he’s not on the roster, not part of the requirements that we set for ourselves. How about Tony D? See, I had a hard time here in terms of at least the games played. He’s not played a full year ever, I believe. When I looked at his hockey reference page, I you don’t see a lot of like 80 games or or whatnot. Uh, right. So, I had him playing 60 games, which is just like I don’t know, could be higher, but I I think you maybe injuries factor in. Hopefully not. You don’t want to see anyone get injured, but six goals, 26 assists for a pace of 44 points over a full year, which is a pretty standard Tony D’Angelo season. I think I would tend to agree with you. I’m doing my pay stats right now as I’m about to Okay, I’m a little bit lower production-wise for him. I have him at 55 games, four goals, 17 assists, 21 points. I have the points coming down a little bit because I don’t think he’s going to end up playing as much power play time. Like I know he may start that, but I think that that tails away. I also think he’s traded. I think the Islanders trade him at the deadline. Yeah, that’s totally fair that he might get traded at the deadline because expiring deal, right? like and there’s there’s going to be a market for it as you keep saying like improving defenseman. Yeah, you get second round picks for third pair defenseman some years like he might still be a third pair defenseman but an offensive third pair defenseman that might fetch you a little bit. Yeah, second plus. Yeah, it it it might be you know depth defenseman another valuable thing. So I have Pio and D’Angelo as my two guys who are uh traded at the deadline and both are assets that teams usually tend to look for a third line center who can win faceoffs and score some goals and a defenseman who can can play can be one of your regulars or a seventh defenseman for for your team with offensive upside. Absolutely. Okay, what about Scotty? I don’t know. And I I kind of hate my prediction. I’m just going to be fully honest with you now. 77 games, three goals, 10 assists, 13 points. Oh, that’s kind of low. What was your thought there? I just I I think he’s going to be the stayat-home defenseman with Matthew Schaefer. Yeah. And I just don’t know if we see a ton of points with that. He had nine in 66 games last year. So, I have him playing about 10 more games and adding only a couple more points. But I I know what you’re going to what you’re about to say. So, I’ll let you say it and then we can talk about it. Yeah, I think he’s going to get a lot of derivative points. Like secondary, just a bunch of noise. I have him on pace for 29 points, but I’ve only got him playing 65 games because he he inevitably gets hurt because of the way he plays, which is fine. I want to say fine mainly because I don’t like seeing anyone get hurt obviously, but this natural result of the way he plays, but because he’s playing with Schaefer, you I think he’s going to get some derivative points here. And so like I have him pacing out to 29, which is less than Schaefer because he’s not always going to get on them. That number is probably going to even be a little bit lower. So, we’re looking at this point career year because I think he’s his high is 24 points over his career. Yeah, that would be a pace for for a careerhigh um for him, which if he’s with Schaefer and racking up some secondary assists, I I could see it. I took the different angle on it like he’s not going to touch the puck a lot. He’s going to clear the front of the net, Matthew Schaefer is going to be the one moving it up and down the ice and there might not even be the opportunities for the secondaries for him. I totally fair. There’s one game we were watching through preseason and at one point Scott he’s looking up and he’s going to make an outlet pass. I was like, “God damn it, where’s Schaefer? Why aren’t you giving it to Schaefer?” And he makes the pass and I thought it was icing. I swear to God it was icing. But they didn’t. They waved it off because apparently an Islander stick touched it. And I was like, “That’s an accident. That was pure accident. That should have been icing.” And it would have been exactly what we thought the outcome would have been because Mayfield is an icing machine. Um, so you’re right. He’s probably not going to touch it outside of his own zone very much. No. How about for the the last one here? Mhm. Adam Boowquist. I haven’t played quite a few games because of the injuries. You might have him playing fewer because you don’t have as many injuries. Although you do have Tony D’Angelo getting traded. So it might be similar. So go ahead. Yeah. So I got 30 games played. Uh total points is 10. So pace of 27 over a full season. That might be a tad little a tad high. I just think he gets again a lot of derivative stuff, but he’s a good player going up. Like he he likes to pinch and I think that’ll favor the Islanders. That’ll favor him in terms of production in the Islander system. I have him playing 42 games, so roughly half the season because, you know, Pel misses time. Um D’Angelo gets traded. I don’t have a lot of production for him and I know normally he is more of an offensive defenseman. So it could be slightly oversight on my part, but also don’t think this team’s going to be top 10 in goals. So like, you know, someone had to not score that much. So I had met uh one goal, eight assists for nine points. So pace of essentially 18, which would be lower for him. He’s someone who scored I think he had one year where he had 24 and 46. Wow. That would be fantastic. Yeah, that’s the most amount of games he’s ever played in a season was Oh, no. He had 22 and 52 uh the year before that. Okay. Still. Um, so what’s your goal total there? Mine’s at 237. Okay. So, I’m higher than than yours. I’m at 249, which I think they’re roughly middle of the pack. 239’s maybe closer to like 20th in the league, which would still be an improvement. I think the offense is actually okay this year. like 16th in the league, fairly average offensively. Yeah, I at one point my numbers were up there. I was at like two almost 250 and I’m going that’s too goddamn high for these. I don’t believe that their offense can be that good. So I brought it down. So these this is an artificial low. I think 237 is the floor for the Islanders and the ceiling is what you’ve got. So I think we fall somewhere within that range here ultimately. But I think that that is perfect encapsulation of where we think the Islanders are going to be, right? I don’t think they get over 250. Uh that if they do, then that’s maybe how they end up sneaking in and being a playoff team, but I I don’t spoiler I don’t have them as a playoff team. I think they’re on the outside looking in. So they probably finish between 235 and 250. And I went a little bit more on the goal scoring side. Yeah, if they’re scoring 250, it’s because the entire NHL is scoring 300. But also, they just have more depth this like scoring depth I feel like this year. Yeah, they’re they are deeper offensively, so that might work out for them perhaps. Yes. All right, let’s talk goalies. Ilas Aroken up first. For me, I have him playing uh 62 games. Yeah, I have him at a 294 and 10 record, 916 save percentage, 264 goals against. Okay, that makes a lot of sense. I have him at a 915 save percentage and a 2.6. And now that I look at my record here, I’m a little bit high. So, I’m going to The numbers don’t don’t math there. Um I I had 30 25 and five, but also playing 62 games. And I’m like, that’s not 62, man. No. No. So, I got him 30 25 and three is their overall record. Okay. So, I think that brings him down to Yeah. 81 points. Sorry, spoiler. doing the math over my head, but 8:15 260 is a decent season for Sroken, but I think they still that defense is so bad that they’re going to let in some goals. That’s what I was going to say. So, he’s not back to 925 and 230 goals against. I think he still gives you a better season, but isn’t like the elite top of the top. Still a above average year, right? 916 and 264 is better than where his numbers were the last two years, but I I think they’re going to give in some goals here. So, I didn’t want to go, oh, he’s gonna go n a 920 guy again. Yeah, hopefully. But I don’t I I just don’t think so with the defense they’ve got in front of him. You know, Schaefer is going to be out there making mistakes. That’s totally fine. Uh and then the other guys are going to be just hoping and prayer sometimes. Yeah. What about big save Dave? You got him as a big save Dave or not? I think he struggles a little bit. I have been uh 20 games. So 712 and one 902 save percentage so just over 900 but a 297 goals against almost three goals a game. Yeah. So it kind of did the same 20 games. Uh 810 and two of course we don’t know exactly how this split is going to work for goalies. We don’t know what’s the the Vley situation is. Uh so 810 and two for him and save percentage 8.95 with a 301 goals against average. I wanted to emphasize the 01. It’s not going to be at three, maybe a little bit under. It’s going to be more than three per game with the big save, Dave. O over three. I I could unfortunately I I could see that. Yeah. So, you kind you kind of spoiled that. You have him at uh 81. So, that that’s just under NHL 500, right? 8. Yes. Yeah. 82 would be NHL 500. That’s right. I have them just above. I have them at 83 points, but we’re in a very, very similar tier here. So, where does that slot them in the Metropolitan Division with 83 points for you? For me, they’re fifth in the Metro. Okay. I have them sixth. So, I have uh Carolina in first at 104, New Jersey in second at 101. I ended up going the Rangers in third, but I don’t love it, honestly. I I I think it was a coin flip between the Rangers and Caps. I don’t really like either team, but I went Rangers 97, Caps 92, Blue Jackets 86, Islanders 83, Flyers 78 points, and Pittsburgh in last at 76. So I it’s close for me as well. It’s close to what I did. Carolina first 105, New Jersey 102, Capitals 98, Rangers 95. So kind of like what you’re seeing to coin toss between those two, whatever. us at 81 and then I had the Flyers at 78 because I don’t think they’re going to be too far off from where we’re at. Uh it really depends on how good Matt Fekov is. And then I really couldn’t decipher between Pittsburgh and Columbus. I I don’t think the Columbus team we saw last year is going to be the Columbus team of this year. I really don’t see it. I have them both at 70 points. Of course, it’s not going to end up that way. It’s just I I don’t know how much tanking Pittsburgh’s honestly going to do. Well, I had them a little bit higher than than you. I had them at 76, which is still last. But yeah, I don’t think and that’s maybe the problem with the Metro. I don’t think any of the teams are like Chicago level where they’re going to come in like 58 points. I think the bad teams, which in my mind is the Flyers and Penguins, and you’re a little bit lower on Columbus than I am. I think they’re going to be in like the mid to high 70s. Okay. Yeah. So, we’ll see that. That’s our our our our prediction right there. Was there any final predictions you want to get out there? I just my final note was just 83 points sellers at the deadline. I would sign up for that in a second. I know that’s not a playoff team. That’s just a fairly average team. I think that’s what they’re going to be this year average. But if they’re about middle of the pack offensively and they’re they put up 83 points this year, I think with some, you know, some of the young guys taking another step and maybe some changes to the roster, I think in the following year, 26 27 is where they can maybe push for a playoff spot again. Yeah. So, I’ve got sellers for sure. Better year than we thought, worse year than we want, still let up a ton of goals, and don’t score enough. I think it’s the overall notes with my final prediction for the Islanders this year. That’s fair. I think they’ll score more, but I think they’ll give in more goals, too. Especially with big save Dave. I I I struggles and you had that

Matt and Mitch discuss the New York Islanders 2025-2026 season

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