Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS Preview: The North goes at it for a shot at the World Series

Mariners-Blue Jays ALCS Preview: The North goes at it for a shot at the World Series

Maybe we should call this one the North American League Championship Series. Between the Toronto Blue Jays involvement and the Seattle Mariners close proximity to the Great White North, there will be a metric ton of Canadian eyes from British Columbia to Ontario and points beyond upon this best of seven ALCS that begins Sunday night at Roger Center. And of course, you don’t have to be a kuck to be captivated by the first ALCS to not feature the Yankees or Astros or both since 2016 when the Jays lost to Cleveland. Toronto hasn’t reached and won the World Series since 1993. Now the two well hit way back in touch. You’ll never hit a bigger home run in your life. And the Mariners are the only MLB team to have never appeared in the series. So after this matchup of 1977 expansion squads, the AL will be sending some fresh meat, and we don’t mean Canadian bacon, to the Fall Classic, one way or another. The Blue Jays have the home field advantage earned from their superior regular season record. and they have a major rest advantage from their tidy ALDS triumph over the Yankees versus Seattle’s 15ining marathon win in game five over the Tigers. These two clubs did have similar run differentials in the regular season though, plus 77 for the Jays, plus 72 for the M. And the Mariners were a much different team after the trade deadline with a 680 winning percentage in September. Some of the biggest names in baseball will have a big impact on this ALCS. Blue Jays franchise face Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has owned this October so far. Swinging a deep drive left field. That ball is soaring out of here. A grand slam. Junior strikes again with nine hits, three homers, and nine RBI in the four ALDS games against the Yankees. Toronto also has one of this postseason’s most captivating curiosities in rookie starter Treya Savage who tossed five and one-3 scoreless hitless innings in game two of the ALDS striking out 11 of the 18 batters he faced thanks in part to his nasty overhand splitter. As usual, the Mariners will be riding their big dumper Cal Raleigh and fellow all-star Julio Rodriguez in the middle of the order. They can mash splitters, the pitch of prominence in the Blue Jays bullpen. And thanks to a mid-season trade, the Mariners even have their own Canadian-born first baseman in Missaga native Josh Naylor, who is of course no Guerrero, but has emerged as a delightful hell- on wheels hero on the base pass to go with his power and patience. The Blue Jays will be the more rested ball club here, allowing them to line up their pitching how they see fit. We’ve seen that work for and against teams in October’s past. But the buy in the wildard series round obviously did nothing to slow the Jay’s offense, which banged out nine home runs in the four games against the Yankees in the division series and benefits from an extreme high contact low strikeout approach. The Blue Jays actually struck out only 66% as much as the average postseason team this year. Rest is the biggest advantage the Jays take into this series because the Mariners just expended a ton of energy, emotion, innings, and arms to defeat Detroit in that amazing game five of the ALDS. The 3-2 pitch on the way. Swing out line drive base right field for a Banco for the walk-off single and the Mariners are going to play for the American League Championship. The Mariners win the battle in Seattle in 15 innings. The Mariners win it 3-2. George Kirby started the game for Seattle and by the time it was over, fellow starters Logan Gilbert and Luis Castillo had both delivered multiple relief innings in the 3 to2 win, which was followed by a happy but lengthy flight across the continent. So, this will be one of the best tests we’ve seen of the values of rest versus momentum. This is also a series in which two of the biggest storylines revolve around injury. As of this recording, we were flying blind, not knowing whether the Blue Jays would be ready to roster Bo Bashette, who dealt with a late season knee issue, and whether the Mariners would be able to give the ball to Brian Woo, who had a late season pectoral problem. Bette is one of the Jays best hitters, while Woo was Seattle’s best starter this season. So, there’s no overstating their importance. When the Jays clinched the ALDS, Bashette told reporters he had made a lot of progress and was optimistic he could be ready to play. But being ready to hit as a DH and being ready to play as a shortstop are two very different things. And either scenario would obviously affect the Blue Jays lineup. If Bashette is only available as a DH, then you can probably expect to see George Springer in right field where he’s played just nine times since the beginning of August. So, that’s a strong offensive lineup, but an iffy defensive picture in the outfield. You would also continue to see Andre Jimenez at shortstop instead of second base, where Ernie Clement can again fill in after his monster offensive performance against the Yankees. As for Woo, he was at a point in his progression that would ordinarily lead to a minor league rehab assignment, not a high-profile start such as this. but tis the season for accelerated timetables and the M’s might need Woo more than ever after that exhausting division series round. Woo was simply fantastic this season with a 2.94 erra in 30 starts, 20 of which saw him go at least five innings with two earned runs allowed or fewer. Let’s talk about some other players who could be X factors in this matchup. For the Blue Jays, it’s Shane Bieber. The trade deadline acquisition came back from Tommy John and put up a 3.57 erra in seven starts and his stuff was better than the numbers. But in the ALDS, Bieber was pulled from the third inning of a game in which he was staked to a 6 to1 lead. The Jays need him to quiet a Mariners lineup that can be a force but can also be exploited via the strikeout. The Mariners have two important arms who had two very different outcomes in the division series. The first is Logan Gilbert, who was not only terrific in that rare relief turn in game five, but also met the moment in his game three start in Detroit. Gilbert struggled with elbow issues at the start of the year and never quite reached his peak in the regular season. But with one run allowed in eight innings in the DS, he might be peaking at just the right time now. The opposite was true of Gabe Spire in that round. The lefty is a vital high leverage option for manager Dan Wilson’s bullpen, but Spire sprung a leak in games four and five, suffering the loss in game four and the blown save in game five. They need him to get back on track. Offensively, both teams are hoping past postseason heroes can again step up on this stage. It was a quiet division series for both Randy Aros Arena and George Springer, both of whom entered the month with some of the best playoff stats in MLB history. All right, prediction time. The only thing I can confidently predict is that these are going to be electric atmospheres at Rogers Center and T-Mobile Park because these fervent fan bases have both been waiting a very long time for a World Series opportunity this earnest. If both of these clubs were rolling into this series fresh as daisies, I might be inclined to go with the Mariners here. But given the nature of what it took to get to this point for the Mariners and the way Guerrero looks locked in, I’m taking Toronto in six games. And if they want to go seven, you’ll get no complaints from me. Enjoy the ALCS or the NALCS. [Applause]

The Seattle Mariners and the Toronto Blue Jays face off in the American League Championship Series in 2025! Who will be crowned the winner of the AL?

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