Jeremiah Fears’ Rookie Year PREDICTIONS | Will He SURPASS or DISAPPOINT Expectations for Pelicans?

Jeremiah Fears’ Rookie Year PREDICTIONS | Will He SURPASS or DISAPPOINT Expectations for Pelicans?

History suggests Jeremiah fears may face a lot of rookie challenges, but I’m going to tell you why that’s no cause for alarm and the Pelicans long-term vision remains intact. It’s the Wednesday episode of Locked On Pelicans. Let’s go. You are Locked On Pelicans. Your daily New Orleans Pelicans podcast, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. Welcome to another edition of Locked On Pelicans, the daily podcast covering your favorite team, the New Orleans Pelicans and NBA. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day, available wherever you get your podcasts and available on YouTube. I’m your host, Pelicans Insider, credential member of the media, JakeMadison, Nola Jake on Twitter, here with y’all on this Wednesday and we are going to do a deep dive on Jeremiah fears and the challenges he may face. I have looked at 48 rookie guards since 2018 drafted in the lottery. So, the top 14 picks. I’ve run all the numbers. I have the average stats. In the second segment, after looking at the struggles here, we’re going to look at what Jeremiah Fears may produce. I’ve got two names in particular to compare him to, and I want to try and find the right numbers of what to expect from his rookie year. And then, by the way, did just did Giannis just screw up the whole trade deadline? We’ll talk about it all in today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. Today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’re going to get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Head to fanduel.com to get started. And of course, thank you for making Locked on Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We are here Monday through Friday, the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So, please subscribe wherever you get your podcast and join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well and become an everyday. That means you listen Monday through Friday to the Lockdown Pelicans podcast. And if you’re an everydayer, let me know in the comments down below. Don’t forget, you can also watch us on the GF Coast Sports and Entertainment Network every weekday at 10:30 a.m. So, let’s get into this one. I ran the numbers, pulled all the stats. I was curious. Rookie guards, it just feels like from covering the league for a long time now that they just don’t make a massive massive impact. So, I wanted to look at every rookie guard taken in the lottery since 2018. So, starting with Luca Donuch and ending with Bub Carrington. So, basically everyone who has more or less played games here. And the numbers aren’t particularly great. They’re not particularly encouraging for Jeremiah here. Now, this data is a little bit skewed. There are some guys that kind of count as wings a little bit in there, but I’m just including everyone that had a guard designation with them. And look, that means two guards are included in this. And Ver is not really a a two guard. He’s more of a lead guard. So, kind of in a hybrid like Jordan Pool. But there are some guys that you look at and you’re like, “Oh, he’s he’s a scoring guard and not a lead guard at all, right? Jordan Hawkins is not kind of a combo guard or anything like that.” So, you look at some of those guys and kind of keep some of this with with a grain of salt when it comes to it, but the numbers are are pretty interesting. And so, I’m just going to read them to you. I hate just reading stats on the show, but this is kind of important. The average number for these 48 players played is 60 games. The average starts is 34. Their average minutes are 24 minutes per game. Their average points are 10 and a half. The average rebounds 3.4. Average assists is three. They get 75 steals per game. They turn the ball over 1.7 times per game. Blocks doesn’t matter for guards, but it’s.3. Field goal percentage is low, 42% shooting on average from the field. Their three-point percentage is worse, 32%. So, not a good number there. They get to the line an average of two times per game. They shoot from the line 75%. their true shooting. So that’s factoring in threes and everything is 50.5. So it’s a little bit better, but that’s not a great true shooting percentage there. When you look at some of the advanced statistics, and some of these are are fluky, flunk, you know, all of that. Like you don’t want to trust them too too much, but I think they give us an idea here over kind of a larger sample size. The player officiate player efficiency rating per not really a widely used stat like it used to be, but there can be something learned from it. The average for every player in the league is 15. 15 is an average player. All of these rookie guards, and this is just their rookie year, 11.7 peer. When you get into win shares per 48 minutes, win shares basically test or you know, count how many wins are you contributing over the course of a season, you know, no one’s adding a ton here. The average win shares is 04. Let’s call it 04. It’s 0. It’s 038. The average player when it comes to winshares per 48 minutes is 0.1. So you’re you’re well below that average number there. When you get into box score plus minus a stat I genuinely like they’re a negative -2. It’s about a replacement level player. When you get into value over replacement player we’re deep into the advanced stats here. It’s not great. It’s.13. Now a replacement level player is minus two. So it is significantly better than that. But when you look at this and when I sort it by, you know, like largest to smallest, there’s only 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 of the 48 players we said. That’s a positive there. You only have three guys that were three or more and that is these names might not really shock you. Actually, Dyson Daniels, Luca Dodic, and Jaylen Williams. I didn’t expect Dyson Daniels to be there his rookie year when it came down to it. That’s cuz his defense was good, right? you. Basically, what this is saying is rookie guards struggle. Rookie guards struggle and that’s something that the Pelicans are going to need to try and balance here. I I’m not overly worried if someone like Jeremiah Fierce struggles. You look at this list and there’s good players. Luca Donuch, Trey Young, Colin Ston, Shay Gildas Alexander. Shay, by the way, was not good his rookie year. He averaged 10.8 points per game. He shot 40. He shot a little bit better than most. 47.6% from the field, but his advanced stats weren’t great. You know, you look at someone like John Morant, who ends up being a great player, okay, but he was kind of a negative in almost every category here. You know, Darius Garland has been good. Kobe White has been good. Anthony Edwards struggled as a rookie. LaMelo Ball struggled as a rookie. So, you look at some of these players, Tyresese Hallebertton averaged 13 points per game as a rookie and could, you know, at least he shot better than most. Kade Cunningham struggled somewhat as a rookie, right? These are all good players in the league here and they had rocky starts to their career. So, just if because someone struggles a rookie year doesn’t necessarily mean there’s a concern long term. And that’s kind of what I want to stress about this. We’re going to look in the next segment at what the numbers that we think Jeremiah fears could produce and what that would mean for this team. And if they’re not what you’re hoping for, it’s fine. It’s not totally only about next year for Jeremiah Fierce. It’s about his long-term career. And when you look at these players, most of them are pretty good, you know, or you feel good about him. I could run through the list here and of guys that I’m like, that dude, that dude is in it. RJ Barrett’s fine enough, even if he’s overpaid and I wouldn’t want him, right? Romeo Langford is not really anyone you’ve ever heard of. Killian Hayes really struggled and hasn’t been great. Um, but you look at Denny Avija, uh, Devin Bell, Tyrese Hallebert and Kylo Jr.’s out basically out of league. Kate Cunningham’s good. Jaylen Green is fine. He’s in the NBA. Jaylen Suggs, Josh Giddy, Damen Mitchell’s kind of found a little bit of a role. James Book Knight has struggled. Josh Primo is out of league. Chris Dwarte is barely in the league. But you have Jaden Ivy, you know, who looks to come back from injury. Benedict Mattherin, Dyson Daniels, Jeremy Sohan’s a little bit different there. Johnny Davis is struggling, but Jaylen Williams is an all-star level player. Oayabaji, right, he’s fine. Scoot Henderson, Amen Thompson, Assir Thompson, you know, now we’re getting into the more recent players. Jordan Hawkins, Reed Shepard, Stefon Castle, Rob Dillingham. This list is mostly filled with like hits, right? It’s like 60% plus good players, I think. So, even if he struggles long term, he still projects to kind of be what this team is looking for. and you still feel pretty good about the type of player he will blossom into. So, even if he struggles his rookie year, it’s totally fine. Drafting him was about kind of balancing the future along with now and someone that they liked. And that’s what they’ve done with him. And rookie lottery guards just tend to struggle. So, I think he can still be fine of a player even if the rookie year doesn’t go how you want. The Pelicans need to know this, however, right? You need to still give him minutes even if he’s struggling. History does not suggest that he’s going to be an all-star level guy, that he’s going to be anywhere close to that, that he might not even be an average NBA player his rookie year. That’s fine as long as the Pelicans know that and they are um, you know, really looking forward to, you know, his development. Everything will be okay when it comes to Jeremiah Fears. But what are the stats going to be? I’ve got two players that I think he’s going to fall in between. So, let’s look at that. It’s Kobe White and Jaden Ivy. I’ll tell you why. what their stats were the rookie year and why I think you’ll see someone like Jeremiah Fierce kind of fit into that. That’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans. Today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans is brought to you by Monarch Money. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth. So whether it’s 401ks, properties, investments, when you don’t have the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. So that’s why there’s Monarch Money. 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Find Locked on Fantasy Basketball. Josh Lloyd hosts the number one fantasy basketball podcast, giving you daily tips and helping you win your league, all while making you a smarter NBA fan. Find Locked on Fantasy Basketball on YouTube or wherever you listen to podcast. part of a lockdown podcast network your team every day. So let’s look at what we expect Jeremiah fears to contribute. You know I I have two players that I kind of see in this group. I’m pointing at my spreadsheet over here if you’re watching on YouTube or GF Coast Sports. Two players that I think he kind of falls into, right? We know Jeremiah Fierce isn’t starting. So you can look at someone like Jaden Ivy has a similarish game. Jaden Ivy started 73 games his rookie year played 31.1 minutes. I don’t know if that’s going to be anywhere close to the number of minutes that Jeremiah Fears is playing. He’s one of the first guys off the bench. They certainly feel good about giving him an opportunity, but that was against a non-NBA team. I’ll be curious to see the rotations against, you know, Houston and when they’re playing NBA level guys. Does that maybe change a little bit? So, he’s going to be somewhat limited by just opportunity, even if he ends up being the backup point guard. So, Jaden Ivy starting 73 games, averaged 31.1 minutes per game, 16.3 points per game, 3.9 assists, 5.2 or sorry, 3.9 rebounds, 5.2 assists. All of those are very good numbers if you really think about it, right? But that was also on a very bad Detroit Pistons team that I think was missing Kate Cunningham most of the year. So Ivy was like really kind of thrust in there. But 5.2 assists, you know, from the field he shot 42% 32% from three, but he gets to the line a good bit four times per game and made his free throws at a 75% rate. Those are all pretty good numbers. It leads to him being grading out as kind of more or less a positive rookie here. So, he’s kind of, you know, and he was on the all rookie team. So, he’s a guy that I think could be someone that’s kind of comparable. He has a downhill attacking style while also having a three-point shot that at times has been inconsistent. You know, 16.3 points per game would be great for Jeremiah Fuse. That would probably get him close to rookie of the year numbers, I think, depending on what Cooper Flag does, but I don’t know if he’s going to have exactly that much opportunity. So, I look at someone like Kobe White, who I also think kind of fits into a similar mold to Jaden Ivy. Where did my Kobe White numbers just go? I’m trying to find it all on the spreadsheet. Here he is. Kobe White played 65 games, started one of them. So, he was coming off the bench similar to what Jeremiah Fears is going to be doing. He averaged 25.8 minutes per game, 13.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.7 assists. Um he shot from the field under 40% 39.4% but 35.4% from deep. Got to the line two times per game. Did it it shot it there at 79%. Graded out pretty good and he’s become a very very I really like Kobe White. I think he’s a good NBA player. You know, as a downhill attacking guy, that’s kind of your advantage creator. That’s a phrase I’ve been using. That’s what Jeremiah Fears is as his archetype. I think both those guys kind of are it. I think he kind of fits with them a little bit. You know, Kade Cunningham is a big physical downhill attacking guard. I don’t, you know, you could start to look there a little bit, too. He’s a lead guard. Jeremiah Fears isn’t as strong as him, though he’s certainly quicker. But Kate Cunningham started 64 games, averaged over 32 minutes, so 17.4 points per game. I don’t think there’s just going to be that much opportunity for Jeremiah Fears. So, in more of a bench role, I think he’s somewhere between Kobe White and Jaden Ivy. So, somewhere between 16.3 points per game and 13.2 points per game. It’s a limited window here, but I think that’s probably what we’re going to be expecting from Jeremiah Fierce. I think the shooting numbers similar to Ivy could be correct about 42% from the field. You know, probably closer to 30% from three. But if he’s getting to the line because he’s attacking so much, that’s going to make up for a lot of things. You know, when you looked at players who were drawing free throws their rookie year, you know, it’s Luca Donuch number one, Trey Young number two, Benedict Matan number three, John Morant number four. Um, those are all guys that were 4.5 or more free throw attempts per game. I I’m not going to put I love Jeremiah Fus. I think he’s going to be a great player. I’m not putting him in the buckets of Luca Dantric, Trey Young, or John Morant right now. You know, those were top picks essentially. And while he was seventh overall fears, it’s not quite at the I wouldn’t put him as the same level of prospect as any of those guys that I just mentioned there. Maybe Benedict Mattherin, but you know, Luca, Trey, J, no, probably not. I think he’s closer to a Jaden Ivy, to a Kobe White, or some of the other players here. You know, Colin Ston, you know, played downhill, got to the line 3.1 times per game. I think he could kind of fit into that mold while shooting 42% from the field, 31% from three. That’s probably what you’re expecting as Jeremiah Fears adjusts to the NBA. Even though he’s getting to the rim, you can see he’s not an above the rim finisher, per se. So, he might struggle as he kind of adjusts and adapts to all of that here. Um, so that I think is, you know, what you’re we’re we’re expecting from him. That’s where I think we are looking to try and kind of plug in Jeremiah Fierce for his stats. I think those numbers are fine. I think those numbers are completely fine when it comes to that and I think that he will grow as a player, but just lower the bar, lower the expectations for Jeremiah Fears. The Pelicans are going to need to be patient with him and they’re going to need to keep playing him. For Jeremiah fears this season is process over results. And I think that’s going to be a really important thing to keep in mind. They’re they’re going to be competing for a playoff spot. Again, I know that Joe Dumar is kind of downplayed that it’s playoffs or bust, but it kind of is. And if it’s playoffs or bust and you have a rookie that’s not helping you win, and again, you look at the list and these guys do not help you win games their rookie year for the most part. And maybe Furious is an outlier gonna be different. I hope so. But history doesn’t say that. You’re still gonna need to play him. You’re still going to need to develop him. You’re still going to need to work on all of that and let him grow as a player. And if you do that, you’ll be rewarded further down the line. So, it’s balancing. You know, it’s this two timeline approach. That’s tough. We We need to win now. Does that mean more Jose Alvarado? Does that mean you sign a guard off the street that’s maybe, you know, a Russell Westbrook, a Ben Simmons, as some people have said, that can maybe just give you more than Jeremiah Fierce can right now? But does that stunt his growth? How do you balance those two things? Because Simmons Westbrook likely would put up better numbers and contribute more wins even if it’s a minuscule amount than Jeremiah Fears will, but that’s going to hurt fears long term. That doesn’t benefit the Pelicans long term. And you’ve got to try and find the right balance. I don’t know what that’s going to be. You know, when I went on lockdown fantasy basketball with Josh Lloyd, just told you to listen to his show to do a Pelicans preview over the summer. He thinks that Fears is going to project as one of the worst NBA players this coming season. I I don’t know if it’s going to be that. I trust Josh Lloyd in his projections. The dude is very good at what he does, but you’re still going to have to play that guy. If he is one of the worst players in the league, you’re going to have to play him a bunch. You’re going to need to keep doing all that. And that is, you know, really, really difficult to do when you’re trying when you have kind of an important season where you don’t have next year’s first round pick. What does that mean? you know, this is the challenges for this front office, for this franchise when they kind of went down. You know, if you had next year’s first round pick, cool, play the young guys, go for growth, go for development, all that, and it’s no big deal and you can do all of that stuff. But if you’re not getting that right now, I think that’s kind of a big problem here for all of it here. So, that is going to, you know, really make it difficult. Sorry, there’s an email that came through. make it difficult for for everything. We’re gonna have to they’re going to have to really try and figure it out who they want to be. You will need to make a decision. You have two paths in front of you right now. The everydayers are probably sick of me hearing this, but it’s where the Pelicans are. You’re going to need to choose one to go down. You don’t have to do it right now, but you will eventually. We’ll see which one they pick. If you had your next year’s picked, be bad. Tank, get a good pick. Develop the young guys. Boom. New generation. That’s not the case. We’ll see what ends up happening. So, coming up next, the team does want to try and improve the roster here. Is everything going to be frozen because of the Giannis news? That’s coming up here next in today’s episode of Locked on Pelicans. That was a bombshell on Tuesday morning. Today’s episode of Locked On Pelicans is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Cuz right now, new customers can bet just $5 and you’re going to get $300 in bonus bets if you win. Just pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. You know, I love FanDuel because it gives me so many different ways to play. I’ve built parlays, tried player props, and even followed the live lines during games. So, it makes watching football even more exciting when you’ve got a little something riding on the action. You could have taken the Saints minus one and a half, they won. you would have won as well. So whether you’re a casual fan or you love diving into the stats, FanDuel makes the game day experience so much better. So don’t wait anymore. Visit FanDuel.com, download the FanDuel app today, and get started with potentially $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. The player props are always fun to jump into. Maybe you want to lane being favored big time on a Thursday night. I love that, too. Roll Wave. Whatever it is you’re looking for, they’ve got it over at fanduel.com to download the FanDuel app. If your first $5 bet wins, you’re going to get $300 in bonus bets. It’s a great offer. Go to fanduel.com. And thank you for making Locked on Pelicans your first listen today and every day. We’re here Monday through Friday, the number one Pelicans podcast covering everything you want to know about this Pelicans team. So, please subscribe wherever you get your podcast and join over 11,000 Pelicans fans on YouTube as well. And become an everydayer means you listen Monday through Friday to Locked On Pelicans. If you’re still listening from Australia, let me know in the comments down below. That’s just the the out porn and fan support from there has just blown my mind and been so awesome to see. So, let’s wrap up the show. Well, also go make Locked On Saints your second listen today. Ross Jackson, good friend of mine, covering everything black and gold over at the Locked On Saints podcast. part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Did Giannis just screw up the NBA this season? Because Giannis might have screwed up the NBA this season and this will have an impact on the Pelicans. It was reported from ESPN Sham Shirania that, you know, the New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks engaged in trade talks, didn’t really go anywhere, weren’t substant substantive, whatever it is, around Giannis to send him to New York, which is really the only team he would want to go play for. it’s kind of maybe enamored of being the guy that delivers the Knicks their first championship, you know, in whatever their championship drought is. There is an allure for better or worse of Madison Square Garden. So, I kind of get it. And all of a sudden, then you’ve heard, well, the Lakers are interested in Giannis. The Heat, if he’s available, would make an offer for Giannis. Literally, everyone wants Giannis, right? I saw the report the other day of like Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, two guys that teams around the league are like coveting and really keeping on their radar. Cool. Everyone’s also keeping Giannis on their radar. The Pelicans would like to trade for Giannis, too. But that’s not realistic. Everyone’s doing that, right? So, here’s what this is going to do. If there is the chance that Giannis becomes available, every team is going to try and go for him. They’re going to make an offer. Pelicans will call and make an offer. Every team will probably literally call and make an offer. Won’t go anywhere, but they’re going to try. Does that mean other trades don’t get done? You know, if this drags out to the trade deadline, till the last minute of the trade deadline, no one’s going to do anything because they’re hoping to land Giannis and they won’t make other trades and move pieces. No one’s going to trade a first round pick away if they think they need that first round pick to go after Giannis. And given that the Knicks don’t really have a ton of picks to offer the Milwaukee Bucks, other teams are going to think they have a chance. Even if Milwaukee, even if Giannis is like, “The only team I want to go to is New York.” Other teams will try and that means they’re not going to make other deals. They’re not going to trade with the Pelicans. They’re not going to make another trade, right? They need those pieces. They need the salary. It’s going to jam the whole thing up. It’s going to freeze the trade market, and that is not an ideal situation. So, if that’s going to be the case, the Pelicans might find themselves in some trouble should they want to try and upgrade the roster. If they go the path of like, we’re contending this year, and maybe things look good, and they want to do that. Zion being healthy can easily skew that. you know, it takes two to make a trade and if you don’t have a partner, you’re kind of stuck. So, that becomes a hindrance to them upgrading their team potentially this season. You know, even teams that might trade with the Pelicans, there’s a player they want, that team knows they realistically don’t have a shot at at uh Giannis. The problem could then become they want to help facilitate a deal. So, do you then trade those picks away or things like that or players? No. Maybe you need those to grease the wheels or get something as a third or fourth or fifth sixth team even when it comes down to it. That can be something that is part of the problem here that’s going to hurt New Orleans. New Orleans also still has, you know, a swap with the Milwaukee Bucks here. So, there’s that factor into it as well that, you know, maybe New Orleans doesn’t want to move anything like that. All of a sudden, that kind of unprotected swap weirdness that went on with the with the Atlanta Hawks in the the Derrick Queen trade. I’m trying to pull up the future draft capital here, you know, is kind of curious, right? The 2027 first round pick for Milwaukee um goes to Atlanta here. So maybe they’ve used all the draft capital. I’m going to have to look at this. Unless it falls into one through four, then it stays to New Orleans. So maybe you want Giannis traded so that they’re bad and get all of that. It’s gonna be really interesting how it impacts things, I think, this year. So, keep an eye on Giannis and all that because it is gonna have an impact on New Orleans. What do you think ends up happening with Giannis? Tell me in the comments down below. So, that’s going to do it for this episode of Locked on Pelicans. As always, I’m your host Jake Madison, Nola Jake on Twitter. This is the Locked On Pelicans podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. I appreciate y’all so much for listening. We’ll be back with y’all tomorrow. Also, go give Lockdown NBA game night a listen. I’m on there today. See y’all next time.

Rookie expectations: Can Jeremiah Fears live up to the hype for the New Orleans Pelicans? Historical data reveals surprising trends for first-year guards in the NBA.

Jake Madison breaks down the numbers, projecting Fears’ potential impact and comparing him to recent standouts. The analysis covers scoring projections, efficiency concerns, and the delicate balance between rookie development and playoff aspirations. Madison also explores how Giannis Antetokounmpo trade rumors could freeze the NBA market, potentially affecting the Pelicans’ roster moves.

Tune in for an in-depth look at Fears’ role in New Orleans’ future and the challenges of integrating a rookie into a win-now team.

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