How Trevor Rogers went from abject failure to one of the best pitchers in baseball

How Trevor Rogers went from abject failure to one of the best pitchers in baseball

One of the most improbable turnarounds we have ever seen. How in the world did Trevor Rogers go from abject failure to one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball? We’ll try to find that out coming up on this episode of the Locked On Orioles podcast. You are Locked On Orioles, your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Hey there, Orioles fans. Today is Tuesday, October 14th, 2025, and welcome back in to the Locked On Orioles podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, I’m your host, Connor Nukem. And coming up on today’s episode, we continue our Orioles 2025 season review series, looking at every player on the 40man roster and how they fared this season, talking about what went right, what went wrong, and their biggest storyline heading into 2026. And for this episode, it’s the first pitcher we’re doing. It is really the high point by far of this oral season, and that was Trevor Rogers. how he did a full turnaround and in the 18 starts we saw was one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. We’ll talk about the health, the changes, the stuff, the command, everything that went into his turnaround. And it’s all coming up on this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast, which is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. So, it’s the season review series and we are diving into how in the world Trevor Rogers did this. Of course, Rogers, 27-year-old left-handed pitcher who the Orioles acquired at the deadline from the Miami Marlins last year. They sent Kyle Sters and Connor Norby over to Miami in the trade. People were already a little upset about that at the time of the trade. Now, he had been fine, okay, in Miami. He had had a 453 erra in 21 starts. He was brought in to at the very least, you know, shore up the back end of the rotation. And we know he had the amazing 2021 rookie season for the Marlins with a 264 RA and 25 starts. But since then, there had been some injuries and just some general poor performance. The Orioles clearly though thought he could turn it around. Now, he came to Baltimore and it was a disaster after the deadline. Four starts, 19 innings, had a 7.11 erra, and Rogers was optioned to AAA Norfol where he remained for the remainder of the 2024 season. Meanwhile, Connor Norby was looking pretty solid in Miami. Sters was struggling, but people um were ready to have Michaelas’s head after that trade. Then, Rogers began this year with an offseason injury. He was on the injured list. Sters turned into an all-star in Miami this season, although Norbies took a large step back as well. And people got even more upset. And then something amazing happened. The Orioles, desperate for starting pitching early in the year, called up Trevor Rogers to start one game of a double header in late May in Boston. And he was awesome. And then he went back down and he came back up a couple of weeks later to rejoin the rotation. And not only did he not lose his spot again, he was essentially the best starting pitcher in Major League Baseball from that point on. The final starts for Rogers this season, he made 18 starts through 109 and 2/3 innings for the Orioles and posted a 1.81 ERA to go along with a 2.82 FIP. Ended up with a 24% strikeout rate to go along with a 7% walk rate and a really strong 46% ground ball rate. He was worth 3.3 wins according to Fan Graphs War. We are doing that in descending order this year in terms of our season review series, which means Rogers the number two player we’re going to look at after Gunnar Henderson’s episode yesterday. Make sure to go back and check that one out if you have not already. Rogers was rewarded in the turnaround by being voted most valuable or by the Baltimore media. So, let’s begin with what went right for Trevor Rogers. Well, I think it’s pretty simple. He turned into the one of the best starting pitchers in Major League Baseball. Only three starters this year made at least 18 starts and had a sub two erra. Trevor Rogers, Nathan Evaldi, and Paul Ske were the only three who did that in the regular season. And before his final start of the year in Yankee Stadium when he allowed six earned runs over three innings pitched to kind of definitely end his season on a sour note, he was on track for one of the best pitching seasons ever before that dud of a start. And it really was one of the great turnarounds in MLB history, going from a 492 RA last year to a 181 this year. Now, a good chunk of what went right was just getting healthy. Two really good stories. I implore you to read. I’m definitely going to link them both in the show notes here. I’m going to mention them multiple times, but Travis Sawic did a story actually on Drive Line’s website about the work Rogers did this off season. And then Andy Kuska had a good story in the Baltimore banner from September kind of detailing all the work Rogers had did to turn this thing around. So what really started was Rogers was was dealing with injuries. Even when the Orioles went and got him at the deadline last year, he was not fully healthy. There were lingering back issues that have come up multiple times that he was dealing with. Not only were the lingering back issues affecting his pitching, it was pretty clear when you watched him. He wasn’t necessarily bad, but he wasn’t to the level he was in his rookie year in Miami. They also caused him to avoid a lot of lifting and a lot of work in the weight room. He was worried that because he was dealing with back issues. If he did any work with weights, he was going to make it even worse. And he felt healthy enough to at least pitch and he didn’t want to jeopardize that. So, he was avoiding lifting. And because of that, he lost a ton of strength. I mean, his fastball sat 95 in 2022. It was down to 92 miles an hour just two years later in 2024. But it wasn’t just that. It wasn’t just the the fast ball velocity drive line and the Orioles separately used these strength tests, these grip tests to kind of set up a better workout plan for him, but also just measure his strength. And the measurements at both places came back and this good reporting from both of these stories that he had grip strength that was well below that of just a regular big league player. It was, you know, ones they would find in like a high schooler maybe or a college player. He was he was not okay physicalitywise. They, you know, at drive line, they did a lot of motion capture and more strength tests. They wanted to set up a better workout plan for Rogers that allowed him to regain his strength. Actually get him back into the weight room. Show him that, yeah, even if your back is bothering you a little bit. Let’s address that. That wasn’t driveline stuff. That was more Orioles medical staff stuff addressing that. But then also take a look at how you can still regain strength even at that back is bothering you. And that worked out. They also got his arm angle back up. He felt it had dropped too too much last year because of this. And it was it was mentally getting healthy as well. He, you know, according to the stories, he’s questioned multiple times with his wife this past offseason. Was baseball really for him? Because it was such a failure coming over to Baltimore and, you know, adding journaling, listening to mental health podcasts, you know, he was questioning his want and those things helped him get back on track. Again, I definitely read the stories by Travis at Driveline, by Andy at the Baltimore Banner to really fully dive in to that part of the turnaround. But it’s amazing what some of these just like doing that strength test can do and be like, look, you were not utilizing anything that you could with your body and your abilities. And he had to kind of reset himself as if he were a rookie again. And he was able to do that. Now, there were changes in the stuff and the mix as well. Adding his sweeper really helped. It was a new pitch this year. He only threw it 7% of the time. So, it’s not like he brought in the sweeper and it was immediately his number one pitch. But when he tossed it in there, opponents hit us 065 with a 38% swing and miss rate against that sweeper. That’s pretty good. The work at drive line kind of showed that they felt and the Orioles agreed he needed a bigger breaking ball shape. He had that kind of smaller gyro slider that he was throwing, but it didn’t break enough. It didn’t help him enough against left-handed hitters. He needed something better against lefties. But what it’s interesting in when you look at kind of the movement profile of his sweeper, his sweeper has 7 in fewer horizontal movement, that is that strictly left to right movement for a left-handed pitcher than a usual sweeper would for a pitcher with a comparable release point and comparable velocity that Trevor Rogers throws at. So essentially, it’s a unique sweeper, but not in that it moves a lot more. It’s almost in that it moves a lot less. And if you’re watching here on the Lockdown Orioles YouTube page, this is the 2025 pitch movement profile for Trevor Rogers via baseball savant and Statcast. And you can see kind of the five pitches there, the four seamer, change up, sinker, slider, and sweeper. And you see the the kind of darker colored dots. Those are the general pitches Rogers was actually throwing this year and where they fell on the movement profile. And then you see those kind of shaded circles. That’s the average movement profile for pitches around Major League Baseball based on where Rogers kind of throws the ball from and his velocity. So you see his four seamer, it’s pretty online. His sinker, you know, it moves a little more towards first base, has a little more tail. His change up has a little more drop than the average one. All these are things that make good. You know, his slider is pretty similar to sliders from that slot. But then look at the sweeper. There’s not a single pitch he threw that’s even close to that circle of the general sweepers that are thrown from his arm slot and his velocity. It’s staying on plane a lot longer, meaning it’s not dropping. And it’s also it’s just not sweeping as much. So the VO down from the slider, different break from the slider, but it also guys expect it to sweep more and it doesn’t. And that gets in their heads as well and allows it to be effective in kind of a different way. Sometimes being unique is the most important thing and that is what Rogers was able to add with that sweeper. Now also getting the strength back as I mentioned did allow him to get his velocity back and that’s an important part of this too. His four seamer vo went up from 92 to 93. So it’s not back to the 95 we saw but certainly took a step forward and the effectiveness of the four seamer was night and day. Statcast has a run value metric that they put on each pitch that a pitcher throws. You know, zero is league average. How many runs are you helping your team or hurting your team with? It’s positive is good. His four seam fast was at a negative one run value last year. That’s not good. He was up to a plus 16 run value on the four seamer this year. That was one of the best four seamers in baseball. Tied with the run value for a four seamer of Cade Smith, the fireb breathing Guardians reliever who became their closer when class got suspended. who has one of the best rising fast balls in Major League Baseball and throws 98 and Trevor Rogers at 93 had the same run value. That’s how good his fast ball is. Now, nothing changed a lot about the shape or the movement of that fourseam fast, but the VO went up and the command got so much better. And sometimes that’s all you really need. It wasn’t just command of the fourseamer. It was elite command of everything. But really with both fast balls, the fourseamer and the sinker, which he threw less and is not as good of a pitch, gets hit harder than the four seamer does, he was able to throw them for strikes whenever he wanted. He could get ahead. He could hit the corners. And that’s really the biggest part here. Like him just getting ahead on batters is what I feel like changed everything. I mean, he had a 66% first pitch strike rate this year. That is by far the highest of his career since he debuted with the Marlins back in 2020. If you to 2third of batters are getting ahead 0 and one, no matter what your stuff is, you’re going to have a good time. And when you’re throwing the ball as well as Rogers is, you’re going to have a really, really good time. And that’s the thing, he just located so much better with everything, including the change up. That change up was his breadandbut pitch in that awesome rookie season in 2021. But opponents had started to get on it. They hit 293 and 320 against that change up the last couple of years. The command of that pitch was all over the place. It usually a ball below the knees or it was way up in the middle of the zone. This year, every time he faced a right-handed hitter, he was basically going to that change up and was able to dot it on the corner down and away. I got some more charts to show you if you’re watching here on the Locked on Orioles YouTube channel. First, this is kind of the pitch plots for Rogers pitches from the 2024 season. This is from last year. This is the four seamer, the sinker, and the change up. Specifically, look at the change up. Most of them are below the knees for a ball. And even when they’re not, they’re in the middle part of the plate. They’re still mostly down, which is where you want to throw it, but they’re in the middle part of the plate. Much easier for a right-handed hitter to hit that pitch, even if it’s tailing away from him, if it’s tailing away to the middle of the plate instead of tailing away to the outside corner or off the plate. Now, this is the 2025 version of the four seamer and the change up. Still the four seamer kind of up in the zone playing well, but look at how consistent he was with the change up. It’s not spread out across all the bottom part of the strike zone. Look how pinpoint it is. Basically down and away to righties almost every time he’s throwing it. Here’s a a quick switch over to look at the difference again. Change up to you right there again. Kind of spread out all across the bottom part of the zone below the zone. pinpoint and and and a similar amount of change ups that he threw just pinpoint down and away. He basically knew where he could throw that change up to every single time and it was virtually unhittitable for those right-handed batters to get to and they had no shot. And the command it was so good of all five pitches. He threw all five. Whether it was left-handed hitters or right-handed hitters in the box, he would mix them up. He had the slider and the sweeper when he needed. He only allowed four combined hits against the slider and the sweeper this year because hitters were so focused on the fast ball change up combo that made him so good in 2021 that got him back to what he could be this year that they weren’t even thinking about the breaking balls. And he could, you know, multiple times this year he would drop in a backdoor sweeper to a right-handed hitter to strike him out looking because all they were focused on was the change up with two strikes. They’d see a pitch that started off the outside corner and they’d say, “Oh, that’s a change up. It’s going to fall even further outside. I’m going to lay off.” And it would be a back door sweeper that would take a right turn and be dotted on the outside corner for strike three. He did that multiple times this year. Just incredible pitching because he had nobody has as good a command on all five of pitches seemingly that Trevor Rogers does. It was just it was unbelievable to see what he was able to do this year and just in a season that wasn’t fun to watch, he was incredibly fun to watch. But it was not all sunshine and rainbows for Rogers. There’s some underlying stuff that concerns you just a little bit. We will talk about that coming up next. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is also brought to you by Monarch Money. Most people can’t name all their financial accounts or even what they’re worth, whether it’s 401ks, properties, or investments. And when you don’t know the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. That’s why there is Monarch Money. It’s an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or your phone. Monarch is built for people with busy lives. If you’ve put off organizing your finances, Monarch is for you. Monarch does the heavy lifting for you. 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The top four on that list of hard hit rate allowed among starters. Balden Francis at the Blue Jays, Lance McCullers in Houston, Mitchell Parker in DC, and Jack Kahanowitz for the Angels. All four of those pitchers had an RA of at least 5.6. 6 this season. Rogers was around them in hard hit rate and had an ERA four runs fewer. That’s a little concerning because it was also the highest hard hit rate allowed of Rogers career. So, how do you have an ERA under two with a hard hit rate of 48% against you? Well, you keep the ball on the ground. If you compare a pretty high 48% hard hit rate with an also pretty high 46% ground ball rate and a fairly low barrel rate allowed that’s under 8% that means a lot of that hard contact you’re giving up is on the ground. If you’re giving up mostly hard ground balls, the worst it can usually be is a double down the line. And generally hard hit ground balls, they’re never going to be anything worse than a single. And when you’re not allowing a lot of home runs, which Trevor Rogers only allowed six home runs all year, and three of those were in that final start at Yankee Stadium, you can get away with a bunch of singles. Also, when your walk rate is under 7%, which means you’re not putting free base runners on. You can give up a bunch of singles and still have a really good erra. That is what Rogers did. That is why I talk about so so much on this podcast, not just about hard hit rate, but barrel rate and hitting the ball in the air because you can hit the ball hard on the ground all you want. You’re generally not going to get better than a single. And it takes a lot of singles versus just one home run or two home runs to score a bunch of runs in a game. And Rogers used that to his benefit this year. Hard grounders also are sometimes easy to turn into outs. If you hit hard grounders right at fielders, those are outs more often than soft grounders. And especially, they turn into a lot more double plays than soft grounders do. If you give up a lot of hard contact on the ground, if you give up a leadoff single, it’s a lot easier to erase that with a double play on a hard ground ball. So, that is kind of the flip side of all that hard contact if you keep it on the ground. And he gets a lot of pulled ground balls off opposing bats. And he gets a lot of opposite field fly balls. Those are the two batted balls, pulled grounders and opposite field fly balls that lead to the most outs. And that is what Rogers did. And you look at his his mix. Yeah, he lives up in the zone with the four seamer, but the change up sinker, slider, and sweeper, his other four pitches all generally live down in the zone. That’s going to lead to more grounders. And again, with the lowest home run to fly ball rate of any starting pitcher who made at least 18 starts, you can get away with a hard hit rate like that if the ball is on the ground. Now, some of that is sustainable and some of it is not. It is sustainable to keep the ball down in the zone with really good command. Rogers did that for basically 17 of his 18 starts this year. He was able to keep the ball down, good command, put it on the corners. You can keep doing that. That is something that Rogers himself controls, but there’s other stuff you can’t control. And sometimes the home run luck or the ground ball hit to a fielder luck is not on your side. Sometimes more ground balls are going to sneak through. More of those ground balls are going to get down the line for doubles and generally more of his fly balls are just probably going to turn into home runs because of how the law of averages work. Now again, it was a 1.81 ERA, but none of his underlying metrics showed that he should have really had a 181 RA. To be fair, nobody’s really posting 181 RAS unless you are Paul Ske at this point in Major League Baseball. The fifth, the fielding independent pitching was 2.82. That’s a number that’s, you know, take out everything the pitcher can’t control. Look at walks and homers and strikeouts. 2.82 is still a great season. Even if you look at expected ERA, that’s based on more statcast factors. 3.35 for Rogers this year. I would take a full season of a 3.35 erra. That’s one of your best starting pitchers. And the underlying numbers for Rogers, they were very similar to the great season in Miami in 2021 and much, much better than any other year. So, while he probably won’t post a 1.81 ERA again, his true talent was still a three erra or below this year, that’s on one hand saying, “Okay, he’s never going to probably be this good and there was some smoke and mirrors.” But on the other hand, saying maybe if he doesn’t repeat this, that’s fine. He can still be a really good starting pitcher for years and years to come and is still only 27 years old. I think really the final thing in the what went wrong category is just we didn’t see a full season, right? We found out he had that knee injury in the off seasonason. So, he didn’t really even throw in games until late April. Didn’t return to the Orioles until May because they, you know, they needed that start in Boston. Then he went back down, came back up and only was able to make 18 starts. We could have seen 30 plus starts had he been healthy. 30 plus starts in pitching like this. he might have just like won the Ali Young Award even if he had like six or seven more starts than he did, but also we’d have a larger sample size to get more data. At the end of the day, this was amazing, but at the end of the day, it was also only 18 starts and it was fewer than 110 innings pitched. You want to see some more data like that in the 2026 season to know that this is for real and a guy in Rogers who struggled with injuries and different things. We explained why he was bad, but was bad for a while in Miami before turning it around. So there’s a little bit of that small sample size worry. So that’s really the question like what is the biggest storyline for Trevor Rogers heading into next year. It’s can he repeat it? But it’s also what does this look like long term? And we’ll discuss that to finish off the show coming up next. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is also brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Just pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And FanDuel’s great because it gives you so many ways to play parlays, player props, you can even follow live lines during games. It makes watching football even more exciting when you got a little something riding on the action. So whether you’re a casual fan or love diving into the stats or you just want to avoid the Ravens at all costs and watch other games, FanDuel makes the game day experience so much better. So what are you waiting for? Visit fan.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. So, after the amazing, incredible, unbelievable 2025 Trevor Rogers season in Baltimore, we turn to his biggest storylines heading into the offseason and heading into 2026. Kind of starting with to what degree can Trevor Rogers really repeat this. As I talked about, I think we all understand if if you believe that Trevor Rogers will post a 1.81 ERA again next year, you’re kidding yourself. I I think we’re all in understanding that his ERA is at least going to start with a two next season. And that’s okay. If he’s right around what his FIP was of 282, that’s amazing. Even if we get 30 starts and it’s closer to his Statcast expected RA, which again was 3.35. If we got 30 starts of 3.35 RA from Trevor Rogers in 2026, that would be outstanding. Even despite it would be an RA going up by a run and a half from this year. There’s really almost no way for Rogers to get better. So, I think the bigger question is, and this is a weird way to put it, but like how much worse will it be? We know the RA is going to get worse again. I mean, it would be put him in the Hall of Fame if he has another full season and gets below a 1.8 RA. So, can you keep it to the the high twos, low threes, or do we see a bigger balloon? And even if it is like a 37 38, it’s still a helpful pitcher, but he certainly wouldn’t be pitching the level that we saw this season. I think from what we saw, the adjustments we made if he’s healthy, 30 starts of a three RA completely in the cards and and he’s a postseason starter for you next year and helps you get back there. Now, the other big question and big storyline for Rogers is what does the future hold? Because for Trevor Rogers, the Orioles got him with some team control. When they traded for him at the deadline, it wasn’t just for a rental. It wasn’t just for 25, but he’s also under contract for next year. But then that is it. Rogers is due to be a free agent after the 2026 season. So, the Orioles know they have him for all of next year, and then it’s a question. The O’s have extended just one player, that’s Samuel Bisayio, and they still have not given out a multi-year contract to any starting pitcher in either free agency or extensions in the Michaelas era. Now, hopefully that changes this off season, and through free agency, they add to their rotation with a big name or two through multi-year deals, but I also think they should be talking with Trevor Rogers this off season. He seems like a good extension candidate. I understand they’ve only seen 18 starts of him being good. That is a risky small sample size, but I would consider it worth the risk if you can get him for a four-year extension that keeps him signed through 2030 instead of 2026. He’s still only 27 years old. If he’s anything close to this, he’s got a lot of good years ahead of him as a starting pitcher. And I know there’s injury risk and I know there’s fall back to earth risk because at the end of the day 18 starts in one season even if it is a 181 RA is a small sample size for a starting pitcher especially for a guy who had a much larger sample size of being bad for a few years there in Miami before this season. I get all that. I still think it’s worth it if he’s willing and he might not be willing. He might be saying, “Hey, I think I can repeat this and get myself a huge payday if I hit free agency next off seasonason.” Totally understandable. On the flip side, he seems to be very appreciative of how the Orioles helped him turn his entire career around and maybe that makes it easier to get an extension done on a little bit of a discounted rate to get that multipleyear security and keep him in Baltimore. That would be a huge move for David Rubenstein and Michael Elias to put together this offseason even with the risks that it’ll come with. That’s the big question. We shall see. It wouldn’t be shocking if we get to opening day and he’s still not under contract beyond 2026, but they should still be working to do that and he was a really important part of this team this year. And the hope is that again he’s he’s not going to post a 181 RA. It’s just not going to happen. But again, if he can make 30 starts, stay healthy RA that puts this Orioles team in such such a better spot rotation wise next year than they were this year. And you just you have to clap it up for Trevor Rogers in a season full of disappointments and just making it hard to watch this team. It was exciting every five days when Rogers would take them out for the Orioles this year. Some of the only excitement they had, especially in those final two months after they sold off the team at the trade deadline. Let’s get him in. Let’s hope that here’s the other thing. Let’s hope that he’s the number three starter going into next season. Let’s hope it’s Kyle Bradish, big free agent acquisition, Rogers starts game three. If he’s starting game three next year, the Orioles rotation is certainly going to be in a good spot. And that is all thanks to the work of Driveline, the work of the Orioles, and most importantly, the work of Trevor Rogers himself. It cannot be overstated, one of the most unbelievable turnarounds we have seen. Hopefully, it will continue. That’ll do it for today’s episode. Thank you so so much for tuning in. Unless we get more Orioles news. Going to be back to the season review series. Continuing to go down the war ladder from this season. We will move on to another pitcher who a little more sneaky but had a good season. Dean Kramer after April was pretty great for the Orioles. We’ll recap his year coming up on tomorrow’s episode. But until then, I’m Connor Nukem and this has been the Locked Orioles podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day.

The best story of the 2025 Baltimore Orioles season was the Trevor Rogers turnaround. Host Connor Newcomb recaps Rogers’ season and discusses his better health, better command, and the new sweeper that led to success.

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