Los Angeles Rams vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction | NFL Week 7 Picks | 10/19/25
We roll on to London Sunday morning 9:30 a.m. We have the LA Rams 4 and two at Jacksonville Jaguars 4 and two. Now we have rain showers that turn into light rain. So it’s possible that there’ll be light rain or or no rain. Uh 13 mileph winds though, 61 Fahrenheit 13 mph winds. That’s the situation for Wembley Stadium. 9:30 a.m. Eastern, uh 2:30 p.m. local. Let’s get into the line history here for Rams Jaguars. We have a total of 45. Uh this look ahead was 46 1/2 and it got up to 47 until the game started, got pulled down, reemerged at 46 1/2, and it got down to 44 and a2. This was a 44 yesterday morning at 10:30, back up to 45. So, it’s a point and a half move towards the under, but it’s bounced around from a point spread standpoint. Here we have the Rams minus three plus money. The look ahead was a three, but the look ahead be went to three and a half and came back to three. Then Sunday night, it comes back as a three and that’s where we stand since it reemerged at the three. Uh, that was a minus 105 for the Jags. So, it’s moved 15 cents towards the Jags at the three and we know their comfort level playing across the pond. They are very used to it. They do it every year. Let’s get into the cash flow then for the Wembley Stadium London game. 55% of the tickets, 62% of the cash on the Rams, 50% of tickets on the over, and 86% of cash on the under. We’ll start with the Rams. Their passing offense is ranked second. Their rushing offense is ranked 28th, which is a bit of a surprise for a lot of us. Their red zone offense has been poor. 24th ranked red zone offense scoring touchdowns 50% of the time. Their third down offense is 16th. They’re converting 40.3% of the time. Then we get to this defense that looks spectacular. Pass defense is ranked first. Rush defense is ranked second. Red zone defense is ranked third. Pass rush is ranked sixth. And third down defense is ranked 10th. It’s a very complete defense. Rams come in off the 17-3 win at Baltimore and the noiseancelled score uh which Troy introduced to our show and I’ve I’m I love it. So I’ve got it for all the games that I can. 1714 for the Rams. So it was a much much closer noiseancelled situation. They were outgainained by the Ravens with backup Cooper Rush 296 to 241. Stafford was 17 to 26 for 181 yards and a touchdown. He did fumble twice. He lost one of them. The the the offense just isn’t wasn’t didn’t look good. You know, Higgby caught four passes for 40 yards and a touchdown. Kyro Williams ran 13 times for 50 yards in a touchdown. He caught two for 37. And Puka Nakua left in the second quarter with a foot injury. He came back in the third quarter, but he didn’t catch a pass after the injury. And he’s listed right now as dayto-day. The Rams were just two of five in the red zone. The defense looked very strong, but look who they were playing. Cooper Rush and the Ravens. They held the Ravens to 0 of three in the red zone. Passers had four sacks, 11 quarterback hits. They held the Ravens to nine of 23 on third and fourth down. Quinton Lake had an interception. Rob Havenstein offensive tackle wide receiver two out were inactive and are listed as questionable this week. For the Jaguars, their passing offense ranked 18th, rushing offense 13th, red zone offense 20th, third down offense 25th. It’s not very good. Their defense has been better than I expected. Their pass defense is ranked fifth, rush defense 12th, red zone defense eighth, third down defense 23rd. Their pass rush is not strong. I’ve been saying that. I’ve also think that the turnovers that they got in the first few games of the year are luck based and it’s going to stop and then we just watched it just come to a crashing halt against the Seahawks. They lost 2012 at home to the Seahawks. Noise canceled score was 2518 Seahawks. Jags were out gained 346 to 273. Trevor Lawrence was 27 to 42 for 250 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions. Brian Thomas Jr. caught eight for 90 in a touchdown. But Travis Etchen struggled. I think we’re going to get used to that. I I before the year started he’d had 200 yard games in his past 28. And so can we say that beginning of the year was an outlier? Can we say that maybe he physically breaks down every year but he keeps playing but he’s beat up? um 12 carries for 27 yards. He also caught four for 28 yards. Offense only put up four yards per play, four of 16 on third down and never made a red zone appearance. The Jags couldn’t throw on a Seahawks team that played without three starting defensive backs. No Julian Love at safety. No quarterbacks and Devon Witherspoon and Tariq Woolen. And the Jags could do nothing about it. The defense tried to keep the Jags in it. They held the Seahawks to one of 12 on third down and one of three in the red zone. The pass rush was quiet. one sack, four quarterback hits. They traded Tyson Campbell for Greg Nuome. Nuome on his first play on the field was burnt for a 61yard TD reception from Jackson Smith Nigba. It was the first time this year the Jags did not get a takeaway. They led the league when they came into the game with 14. Defensive end Trayvon Walker was active after having wrist surgery two weeks after wrist surgery. So, he’s playing on passing downs with a club on his left hand. their center Robert Hayes missed a game with a hamstring injury list as questionable this week. I do respect this 15 cent move to the Jaguars. I respect it very much. I see that obviously it’s a bet a buy low spot on a team that’s comfortable playing in Europe, but I don’t think they’re a very good football team. I want to fade them badly, but I’m not going to sit here saying, “Oh, the market’s wrong. Why are they giving me the three at at with no vig? It scares me.” Should it scare me? Troy Torrance take it away our London England game and it should be a beauty this, you know, especially they just saw Jets Broncos. They need to see good football game and maybe they get one here. Take it away, Troy. I think this will be a good football game and you make some incredible points. I’m not ready. I’m not ready to stand in the face of this market move. I’m definitely not. Uh, I think there is and I don’t have a market efficiency database to lean on because this game is overseas. There’s no home road dichotomy. Now, my sample of overseas games is very small. So, I don’t even think it’s worth um, you know, referencing to, but I I agree with you in so many ways with how you broke this game down. I want to bet the Rams in this spot. Obviously, I believe in the Rams, but I might just have to let my futures be my action on the Rams in this spot because I think this Jags team is a team that’s clearly overrated. They can’t compete for top tier quarterbacks and I think their quarterback themselves is terrible and they’re looking at a Rams team that hasn’t looked good in two consecutive weeks. You could argue that they’re a by low spot. In my mind, they are because you look at that noise cancelceled score and that’s actually something I have to circle back to. I had no action on that Ravens Rams game. I want to circle back, watch the tape on that game, see what was really happening because Puka Nukua being out, I think that’s why we’re seeing this line movement. Huganaku has eaten up a massive percentage of this team’s offense. So, I would expect that line to react to an injury like that. I think that’s what we’re seeing. And what happened to Trevor Lawrence when the script went dead? I mean, he completely signed off. He was terrible. The plan of attack was sound. Exploit the backup cornerbacks that play a difficult position when they’re trying to play a cover four. And he went back to the well one too many times. Like a lot of these I talk about a lot of these websites talk about cover four so much because I think that’s the best way to play defense and if you have the personnel to play it you’re going to be elite defense but you you know they took advantage of some out and up routes basically to to attack a cover four and know for sure that a team’s a cover four. You run a streak you run a seam you’re twoman combo a seam with a deep out and that puts the cornerback in a bind. They exploited it early in the game and he just that’s all he was looking to all game long was that deep out and you know they have an over out over the over the other side right coming from across the field but he tried to go back to the well one too many times it’s like they could they ran the same play the Seattle Seahawks team just adjusted to it they kept seeing it and he just kept looking it and sure like the Jags did drop two key passes one of them on a critical third down but I thought Trevor Lawrence was clearly abysmal I mean I’ve been talking about this guy being bad for weeks he showed put out with his mobility against the Chiefs, but outside of that, he’s been terrible. He took seven sacks. Most of those were from his own indecision. Like his his spatial awareness is that of a six-year-old. As soon as that pressure any type of pressure at all, as soon as he feels that pocket collapsing on him, I don’t think he even feels that pocket collapsing on him. So, he’s always surprised and they’re out game by 2.44 yards per play. I am not a believer in this Jags team. Obviously, I am a believer in this Rams team, and I see a lot of corlaries between these two defensive styles. Now, you didn’t get a lot of cover three with the Seahawks, but you’re going to get a lot of cover four with the Rams, just like the Seahawks play. They don’t blitz a lot, just like the Seahawks. Seahawks blitz at the lowest rate in the league, 11%. The Rams are right there at 14%. A high pressure rate between the Seahawks and the Rams, they’re backto back. Um, the Rams pass rush grade out at sixth. The Seahawks are 12th. And I feel like the Rams have a scheme which is a derivative of the Eagles, the Fangio scheme. And I think that’s going to be a massive problem when you have a pass rush that’s this capable. And I think the Rams offense, we have to go I have to go back and see what the hell is going on. Um, you know, their their offensive line is grading out incredibly in the run game. They pass to open the run. So maybe that’s why this offensive line because if you look at the the personnel like it’s not like you you watch tape on these guys, it don’t seem like they’re really kicking ass like to be the number one overall graded offensive line. But um yeah, I just I really want to go back and watch this tape before I move on this Rams team. If anything, I’m only moving on the Rams. I’m not buying the Jags. I’m I’m selling I’m a seller of the Jags when they still have a winning record. But TJ pointed it out. I don’t see a lot of points being put up in this game. I think we we see the market moving towards the under and I could I could totally see this being a great play on the under and I think that’s what I’m going to move on in this game pre flop. Yeah, I agree with you guys. I agree with you guys. You know, um I I don’t think Nua plays. I’m sure he’ll try to play. He’s dayto-day right now. You know, if if the line move was predicated just on the Puka injury, I don’t believe it is. Yeah, I don’t think so either. I agree. So, but I’m with you guys. Um, you know, uh, first half, full game under. TJ said he won’t be able to put this out on Pub. Uh, but first half, full game under, I I agree with you guys. I, you know, high winds, uh, two offenses that are not able to move the ball on the ground. uh successfully over the last couple weeks. So, they’re not able to really sustain long drives, you know, smashmouth football and these defenses are the highlight of the teams. I mean, there’s no doubt about it that at this point for both the Rams and the Jags, it’s their defense that’s leading the way. So, I’m right with you guys. Uh I’m absolutely right with you guys. So, yeah, I actually think there was some impressive things on the J. I didn’t talk about the Jags defense, but it’s a defense I I kind of am becoming more of a believer and I I I can get behind the scheme. I can get behind the personnel. Um I think they’re great on third down. They’re well coached. I feel like this is a well coached defense. I This is a great underb. I’m moving on it right now as we speak. I agree with it. I agree with it. Doug Doug says he wants to move on the Rams money line. this I I just if everything if you looked at all of what worked for me yes uh last week it was all selling high and buying low I I really am uncomfortable selling high with or sorry selling low with the Jaguars after that performance I just I it just it just doesn’t work for me and it it never does and I remember you know 15 20 years ago you know being in NFL pools and before we, you know, had gained all this wisdom about watching the market and seeing where the public was and seeing what the lines were doing where I would lose every year and I would say to myself, man, God, I could just take the opposite on these spreads in these spread pools, you know, when you’re betting everyone, you know, now I’m I’m second out of 96 people in my spread pool right now. And it’s it’s just keeping everything really clean. you just you and here I I can’t get on the Rams even though I want to so badly from Max’s notice and I don’t feel like I have to anymore. I can just take the first half in a full game under. Now if Puka Naku is announced out and I start believing that everyone’s hammering the Jaguars because of that, then I may move on the Rams. So that will be uh it here. Uh unders. Troy, did you just move on yours officially? I did. I bet under 45 at minus 110. Under 45 at minus 110. I will be uh first half in full gaming the under myself. Okay, let’s roll. Yeah, but you need a 23. I’m not seeing any 23s. What’s the highest? 22 and a half. Um maybe I was wrong. Maybe I was wrong about that. Yeah, 22 and a half, I guess. I don’t know. All right. Yeah, we can move on. Let’s get it. And Ducky Weiss says the moment Puka is announced that he bets Rams. Hawkins is going to be on both team total unders. I I have no problem like Vince I have no problem with that adding to your investment but for me I I just do the first half under full game under personally but I I get it. Let’s roll on.
Tune in as Jimmy (@JimmyTheBag) and Troy Torrence (@TroyTorrence11) preview and predict the week 7 matchup between the Los Angeles Rams and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
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