Was The Kyle Tucker Trade A BUST For Chicago Cubs?

Was The Kyle Tucker Trade A BUST For Chicago Cubs?

I know the season just ended, but it’s not too early to ask. Was the Kyle Tucker trade a win, loss, or bust for the Chicago Cubs. You are Locked on Cubs, your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are locked on Cubs for the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. I’m Sam Ober. I’m a lifelong fan taking my passion into a discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the app today. All right. you knew it was coming early in the off seasonason and it’s probably gonna uh be another show here later on and then the next one. The Kyle Tucker stuff, it is the biggest story of the off season. And and you know, we preface this episode by saying, look, if Kyle Tucker resigns with the Cubs, which you guys know I think is very unlikely. If that happens, then this episode becomes a moot point. We’re kind of doing this episode in assumption that he ends up somewhere else and just judging the trade off this one-year vacuum. Um before we get into was the trade a bust, was it uh um you know, did the Cubs get what they needed? How far do they need to go? If they don’t bring him back, how bad could this look? Before we get into all that stuff, um let’s just discuss his season first. Let’s talk about just Kyle Tucker’s 2025. Let’s grade it first and then we could dive into well, you know, was that what the Cubs needed, etc., etc. Okay, so I start by just reading you off some numbers. Kyle Tucker’s 2025. He had 266 with a 377 on base, 464 slugging, 841 OPS, 22 home runs. He just drove in 73 in 136 games. Now, that 80 841 OPS number is very much in line with what he did in Houston. Uh, you got a pretty typical uh uh pretty typical Kyle Tucker season. What you pay for a typical Houston Astro Kyle Tucker season. Now, were we hoping for a little bit more? Absolutely. Um, do you do I think Jed and company thought that you were going to get more of the Kyle Tucker the first half of 2024 where he was putting up Juan Sodto numbers? Um, were you hoping to get more of that for what you traded for? Absolutely. But in a vacuum, as Jed talked about in his press conference, when Kyle Tucker was great, at his best, the offense was at its best. And and there were a lot of times this year where Kyle Tucker was at its best. And it was really fun to watch. And in in in that aspect of things kind of defended the trade because that version of Kyle Tucker combined with this version of the Cubs looked like a World Series contender. Now, the caveat there was it was also uh combining with Pete having an MVP caliber season, and we know that that didn’t last. But let me tell you where the season goes down for me. And this is where Jed uh has a different perspective. I don’t look at just the final numbers. I look at how you got there. How consistent were you? Um, in March, and I know March the Cubs didn’t play a ton of games, but it’s worth mentioning because in March, Kyle Tucker had a 1.142 OPS. April, outstanding 865 OPS. May outstanding 8.82 OPS. June, the month he’s believed to get hurt, incredible. 982 OPS. March, April, May, and June, you had a dude who was a top five hitter in all of the sport. Now, we know the story. The injuries uh the injury might have piled up or maybe in in June he was getting into some bad habits to, you know, overcompensate for that injury mechanically because July he goes down to a 675 OPS. That’s okay. You could have one bad month. August 735 ops. Not terrible when you grade it out like that. Um, September barely played, not really fair. 516 OPS and then the playoffs a 745 OPS. Here’s where I think it’s it’s worth noting. July, August, September, and October, Kyle Tucker had six home runs. I’m going to say that again. The full month of July, the full month of August. Now, he missed a lot of time in September and October. Just six home runs from Kyle Tucker. And that’s where the season went downhill. And I don’t think it’s a coincidence. That’s when this offense started to struggle. That’s when the Brewers started to run away with this division. Now, this isn’t a knock on Kyle Tucker. And I’m not sitting here like I like Kyle Tucker. Um I think he’s really good. I I’ve compar compared him a lot on this show to Chris Bryant when Chris Bryant was really good. They they seem very similar to me. Um, and Chris Bryant’s one of the most important players to ever uh, put on a Cubs uniform. So, I I think that’s pretty high praise. Uh, I just think with Tucker, when I look at his grade, because I want to grade him first and then I want to get into how this trade worked and and and do the Cubs are the Cubs going to have these huge regrets if he leaves, do they have to resign him? What you’re looking for from a superstar and and that’s what the Cubs needed him. Now, maybe that’s unfair to Kyle Tucker, right? He was surrounded by Yordon Alvarez and Jose Altuve and other guys. Maybe that was unfair to expect him to be a superstar. But what you’re looking for is you can’t have bad consecutive months. You can’t be that quiet the whole second half of the year. And to Kyle Tucker’s credit, when I was doing the the stats for this episode, I thought it was way worse in July and August. I thought it was way worse. uh just shows you how talented he is and how high his floor is because he’s able to get on base. But it was really the slug, the lack of the home run ball, the rolling over the right side where I just can’t give Kyle Tucker any higher than a B. I thought he was a B this year. I I I if you were to tell me these numbers throughout the year or before the year started, I’d probably take it. Um I thought he had a B year. And again, whether this is fair to Kyle Tucker or not, I just think it’s true. The way this team was organized, the way this team was built, they needed him to have an Ayear to get where they wanted to go. They needed him to have an Ayear to get where they wanted to go. They were a 92- win team with him having a B-ear. I think a huge reason they were a 92- win team is guys like Michael Bush and Sea Suzuki at times took step forwards. Pete Crow Armstrong, as we talked about, was an MVP candidate. Now, Kyle Tucker could probably take some credit for that. Jed even said in his uh press conference he made others around him better. So if there’s a case for him to be maybe a B+, maybe just an extra an extra half grade higher is that maybe he made the team a lot better by just being there. But when Kyle Tucker was at his best, that was when this team looked like they could make a deep run in the postseason offensively. And he just wasn’t at his best um throughout the whole season, which is impossible to do. But he he he struggled for a large part of the second half of the season. And I just think for me personally, that’s why I’m going to give him a B. And that B-grade makes a lot of things very interesting because if you knew you were going to get a B, if you knew you were going to get a guy that could lead the team to 92 wins, a playoff appearance, and a first round, excuse me, in a second round exit after winning a playoff series, would you have still made the trade? Do you look at this trade now if Kyle Tucker leaves as one where it’s like, man, Jed made a huge mistake and there’s so many things we got to think about or is it like, hey, you took your shot. Let’s see what happens. Maybe they resign him. Those are the things. Those are the things we are going to talk about and we’re going to talk about them coming up next. 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We are back here on Locked on Cubs. Shout out to the everydayers. And you can become an everyday locked on Cubs everyday by joining us for every episode throughout the week all off season long. This is a great time. you get the chance get the chance to get to know me and Matt a little bit more um you know before uh next season starts. But now’s the question that everybody kind of wants to know the answer to and that is well was the Kyle Tucker trade a win loss or or or even a bust for the Chicago Cubs? And of course the answer is TBD because we don’t know what happens with his contract situation. And so you’re asking yourself, so then why are you talking about this right now? because I think it’s an interesting thing and an interesting episode to take in before uh uh the the off seasonason starts before the, you know, Kyle Tucker free agency uh situation begins. So, you kind of know what we’re working with and and and how important is it to resign him. We’re going to talk about all of that stuff. Um, but but I guess where I would start here is I’m going under the assumption that Kyle Tucker is not back in a Cubs uniform because that’s just how I feel personally right now. Jesse Rogers basically laid it out and said it’s probably not going to happen. Um, it hasn’t felt like it was going to happen. I mean, I said before the season that if it wasn’t done right around June, Matt said the All-Star break. I just didn’t see the Cubs being able to retain him in free agency unless there’s some sort of Cody Bellinger type situation where the market just decides, hey, we’re actually we don’t value Kyle Tucker as a $250 million player and then the Cubs could kind of chime in with some options and and do the things that they do with with those type of deals. But right now, um, when I evaluate this, I am going under the assumption that he will not be back. And so, when I evaluate this trade, I will start out by saying this. If Kyle Tucker is not a Cub next year, the trade is still, it’s not a bust. I would not categorize it a bust at all. So, let’s talk about that for a few minutes here. Why is it not a bust? Well, you saw the vision, right? sometimes, you know, it it the process was good. They traded for a guy that had superstar abilities. He didn’t play like a superstar for all the year, but from March through June, he looked like one of the five best hitters in baseball. And when he was one of the five best hitters in baseball, you had the best offense in baseball. Uh um it’s like we talked about in the first segment, yes, Pete was a huge part of that. But in my eyes, if Kyle Tucker was anywhere close to where he was at in April, May, and June in October, the Cubs would probably still be playing baseball right now. And so the idea of the trade of, hey, let’s go get a guy like this. If he’s great, we can be great and really make a deep run. That held true. It’s just when you when you make a trade like that, you’re taking risks. You’re taking injury risk into account, which happened to Kyle Tucker, and you’re taking performance into an account. And he just wasn’t that guy for 6 months. And I don’t think anybody’s that guy for six months. You were hoping he was that guy for about four or five months, and he was really just that guy uh uh for three months. It It was essentially 2023 Cody Bellinger for about a month longer. Remember when Belly went on that huge run in the second half that propelled the Cubs to a 33 and4 record? Um, that’s basically what Tucker was, but it it was longer and the Cubs were better longer and that’s probably why they were, you know, a lot better in 2025 than in prior years. Um, as I talked about earlier, he just you needed him to have an A season and he had a B season. Um, so that doesn’t make the trade a bust. You won 92 games, you were one win away from going to the Final Four. If Kyle Tucker hits a three-run home run against Aaron Ashby on that 3-1 count and the Cubs are still playing, you know, the the trade is definitely uh uh looked at in a much higher regard because as Matt said, and I think it was really appropriate, um you know, the goal was to make the the last four, the goal was to make the LCS and they came within one game of that. It was just frustrating that throughout that time, basically the whole second half of the season, including the playoffs, I looked at Kyle Tucker the same way I looked at Ian Hap. And that’s no disrespect to Ian, but it was like, hey, if Tucker does something good here, great. Um, I know he’s going to give a good at bat, but I’m not expecting much. And that’s just that’s not what you traded for. But you can’t call the trade a bust because you won 92 games. He was really good a lot of the year. And it showed you that this offense and the way it’s constructed isn’t that far away. It’s just it’s it’s looking for a player like Kyle Tucker to bring it all together. And he just wasn’t able to do it for six months. and and like really five out of the six months everyone’s entitled a bad month in baseball. Um and that’s why if I had to say win, loss, or bust, if I had to assume that he’s not going to be back, I would probably grade the trade as a loss just because they didn’t win the division. Now, there’s a big difference between a loss and a bust. And and and that’s what I’m trying to say. Like I I don’t want people if when Tucker signs, let’s say if he signs with the Red Sox, that’s my prediction where he goes. I I don’t know why. I just that’s that’s where I’m predicting. Oh my gosh, the Cubs got fleeced. I can’t believe they gave up Cam Smith. Like I don’t think it’s that, but it’s it would be a wow, the Cubs gave up a lot for Kyle Tucker. They got one year from him. There was a lot of good. You saw why they did it, but eventually it just didn’t work out. And that’s where I am at currently, assuming he’s not brought back. It just didn’t work out. Um, and the reason why I would call it not a win and more a loss is just because of of what I said. The second half of the season, you you trade for a guy, you give up a guy like Cam Smith, who’s a huge part of this equation. How his career unfolds will will be a big story about this trade or or or summarizing this trade. And I, you know, I think Cam Smith’s going to be really good. And so because of that, you just you needed Kyle Tucker to be better than what he was the second half of the season, injury or not. And and that’s the type of risk that you take when you make a trade like that. And I think my biggest frustration with this front office and and more so ownership is nothing to do with Kyle Tucker. I love going for it. I would make that trade 10 times out of 10. gave yourself a chance to be really really good uh in 2025 and you were for a lot of the season. I just don’t understand why then when you go and get a one-year rental why you don’t just go all in a little bit more. There removes you. You had a payroll of $228 million with a one-year rental of Kyle Tucker. Why not increase that to 240, 245, 250 and worry about the rest next year and not have such a tight budget knowing you might lose a player like that so you can go get that extra pitcher that you needed in the offseason to combat what happened with Steel and and and you know take some weight off a Boyd so you could get that extra reliever so you could get that extra bat and the Cubs tried they tried to get Bregman or or whatever it is. My point is is when you look at this trade, it’s not just about Kyle Tucker. It’s hey, we went out um you know to go get a guy like Kyle Tucker. And I remember watching my episode back, excuse me, our episode back when when the Cubs um got Kyle Tucker and my biggest reaction was not only am I excited that we’re going to get Tucker, but I’m really excited because now the Cubs are going to make so many more moves, right? They’re going to trade Bellinger. What are they going to do with all that money? They didn’t do anything about it. And that’s what makes the trade as much of a loss as anything is because you were one game away from going to the NLCS. You were nine games away from being a World Series champion, which sounds crazy to say, and you kind of just sat on your hands when you knew you only had Kyle Tucker most likely for one year and you knew you had other holes on the team. And that that brings the question of like were the Cubs actually all in this year or did they look at Kyle Tucker as an asset to say hey giving up Ky uh Cam Smith and Weski and whatever and Pareedes is worth it for a $17 million a year player that we know we’re going to get a a great bang for our buck for this year. It’s going to help us be a 90 plus win team and let’s see what happens after that. And that’s why I just I don’t think the trade was this massive bust. I don’t think it was a huge win. It’s just kind of like whatever. Like because I I I think when you listen to this organization, they don’t go all in. That’s not in their mentality. And I think that’s where discussing this trade can get really confusing because you’d think one-year rental Kyle Tucker, you’re all in. I don’t think the Cubs think like that. I think they just looked at him as like a, you know, hey, a 2025 asset. Let’s see what happens beyond. Um, and if they did, if they did go allin, that’s where it just would have made no sense because why wouldn’t you make more moves? Um, a lot there. I’m all over the place. Matt, actually, Matt will talk about this, I’m sure, at some point. Um, he’s going to be solo um, a lot this offseason, too. We’re each going to be solo probably once a week. And Matt has a much more, I think, clear sort of black and white uh, outlook on this. I’m all over the place because it’s really confusing. Um, but the point of this segment is is I I don’t think this trade was a bust by any means if Kyle Tucker doesn’t return um uh to the Cubs. I I I would have made the trade 10 out of 10 times. Um but because of his performance in the second half and because the Cubs didn’t win the division and they came up a a game short from ultimately what I think was their uh was their goal, I would say, you know, you can’t call it a win either. Um, and that’s and that’s difficult because what if Kyle Tucker had 40 home runs and the Cubs finished in the same spot, right? It’s it’s a very hard exercise to do. But the biggest question is is, you know, if the Cubs resign him, we know that the trade looks better, but in a vacuum after what you saw in 2025 from Kyle Tucker, would you resign him at a large price? Let’s talk about that and more coming up next. This episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get 300 bonus bets if you win. That’s right. Pick a bet, put down five bucks, and if it hits, you’ll unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. I’ve been rolling. I have a I have a bet out there tonight that I gave away with the uh with the Bengals. Hopefully, they cover um this Sunday. Bears only four and a half against the Saints. That’s a stay away for me. Um, I I I think the Bears will win that game, but it’s that’s it’s that’s a weird line. One bet that I’ve been staring at that I just I think I’m going to have to make is is the New York Jets home dogs to win their first game of the year. Can’t believe I’m saying that. Uh, but they’re going to have to win a game some sometime. What’s a better situation than playing the Panthers uh at home? So, what are you waiting for? Visit fanuel.com to download the FanDuel app today and get started. All right, we’re back here on Locked on Cubs. I’m going to give you guys a little bit of a league championship series update here in a bit, but I just wanted to close out the Tucker stuff by just saying this, and this is where it gets very confusing to talk about. For this trade to really feel good now, you need to resign Kyle Tucker, right? There’s no question about that. But after what you saw from him in the second half of the season, banged up with some injuries, his second consecutive year now uh with injuries and and knowing how much he struggled and and and watching the mechanical things, would you be comfortable giving him a seven, eightyear contract at $30 million a year? Um I don’t know. And I think that’s where I I’ll leave it because it’s just, you know, that’s that’s going to be great conversation as we head into this this free agency because what you want to do, and Jed talks about it all the time, you want to make sound decisions as an organization. And you don’t want to just make a decision to go, hey, that might look really bad if we don’t resign resign him, so let’s just resign him so it looks good. even though deep down we don’t feel like after what we saw he might be a great fit long term now that doesn’t excuse the Cubs not to make other moves right you want them to give out big contracts but you want them to give out big contracts to the right guys and I’m just going to be honest with you I I was all in on Kyle Tucker I want them to extend them early in the year I have serious questions about Kyle Tucker his fit at Wrigley Field how his game is going to age his athleticism um the decline this year in right field um I just it’s no I’m not trying to be disrespectful. I still think he’s a great player and I think if you can get him on now obviously he’s a better player than Bellinger I believe. So I’m not saying the exact terms but if there’s a Bellinger type situation where you wait it out and then resign him absolutely. But you got to get value and I just think teams are going to are going to be lining up to sign him and give him big money. I’m just not sure he’s the guy um you know with with the way he performed in the second half and then that right there automatically makes it kind of a loss of a trade because you only got him for a year and you didn’t even win the division. Whatever. We just talked about all that. But sometimes you can’t compile losses. You can’t just try and oh well we’re going to we’re going to we’re going to create a new problem by fixing this problem. Sometimes you just have to you know say hey we gave it a shot. It didn’t work out. Move on. And maybe that’s what the Cubs end up doing. Or maybe Kyle Tucker was just injured in the second half and he wasn’t, you know, he wasn’t himself and he’s still an elite elite player that has 35 40 home run potential and will always be in the mid8s, high eights of an OPS. You saw how high his floor was last year. He struggled for so much of the year and still ended up putting together a productive B-level season. So, you feel safe doing that? I don’t know. I’m really curious your guys’ feel, right? Do you consider the trade as of now a a win, loss, or bust? I personally think bust is out of the question. I put that in the title because I do I have talked to some people that do feel like it is. I don’t at all. Um, and then despite all that, forgetting the fact for what you gave up for him, Cam Smith and Pedes and Weski, after what you saw from Kyle Tucker in 25, even though we want the Cubs to spend big money, would you feel comfortable giving him that type of contract? It’s it’s a really fair question. It was a a gimme when we had this conversation in mid June, early July. It was a gimme. All-star break, it was a gimme. But when you go the whole second half with with five, six home runs and and and you just kind of you see what what could happen, you know, it gives you a little bit of cold feet. And um I’m really curious. Now, that doesn’t excuse the Cubs for not replacing him if they don’t, but you know, the question of is this was this a good trade or bad trade for the Cubs is so dependent on if they resign him. But then the question is is do you actually want to resign him with everything that you saw? It’s a very complicated thing and and that’s why um we’re going to be talking about it a lot. We’ll probably repeat it a lot because it’s it’s the biggest story of the off seasonason, but it’s it’s hard. It’s hard to figure out. It’s hard to digest and I think we live in this world where it’s like the second he signs with somebody else, it’s like the Cubs got fleeced. Look at what they gave up. It’s like they didn’t get fleeced. Um they they they took a calculated risk to go get a really good player and they came really close uh um to to making a deep run. If you want to criticize the Cubs for anything, just criticize them for what we always do, which is not being more aggressive and just saying, “Hey, look, if we’re going to have one year of Kyle Tucker, we might as well be really aggressive and spend more money this year and maybe spend some less next year so we could really maximize that one year.” And that’s where I think you could be critical of the Cubs and their $228 million payroll in 2025. Really curious to hear your guys’ thoughts. I’ll read them. Um, it’s a it’s a it’s a really interesting situation. uh transitioning into unfortunately the teams that are still playing uh which which we thought the Cubs had a great chance to do going into Saturday night. As of recording time right now, uh the Los Angeles Dodgers are convincingly 20 up on the Milwaukee Brewers in that series. Game three starts Thursday night. I’m recording before that. Uh right now, pretty much a must-win for the Brewers to save their season. Uh my analysis of that series, I thought I like I thought the Dodgers would win the series, but I thought the Brewers would really really compete and so far that has not happened. That has not happened because Blake Snell and Yoshobu Yamamoto have been just unhitably good. And it’s kind of a great lesson. It’s a lesson for me, too, because I I praise the Brewers all the time with their bat-to ball skills, their ability to work counts. When you run into pitchers like that, it doesn’t matter who you have, doesn’t matter how you approach it, because the Brewers just they haven’t even competed offensively. uh in the first two games of that series. And it shows you the Dodgers, the luxury that the Dodgers have of kind of just making sure guys are fully healthy in the regular season, not pushing everybody, and just making sure they’re at their very best in October. That’s kind of how they’ve taken advantage of their payroll. Not in so much of wins in the regular season, but depth, getting what they need to do to get done, and now peing at the right time. We’ll see if the Brewers show some fight in game three in LA. And uh over in the American League, I haven’t watched that series as much as the NL, but Seattle’s up 2-1 uh on Toronto. Toronto uh uh made that a series by winning convincingly in Seattle in game three. So far um all road victories uh in that series uh um in the American League, which is just uh a really interesting series. Seattle. Seattle was a team that I was really critical of in the offseason because of just the lack of money that they spent that they built the really good team. And Toronto was a team that a lot of people did not see, including me, uh, uh, to be this far in the playoffs. They’re really good with their bat-to- ball skills, too, by the way. They they’re really fun to watch hit. Uh, so it’s fun. It’s a fun final four. It feels like, you know, the Dodgers are in real control right now, and we’ll see if the Brewers uh, could do anything about that. But the Kyle Tucker situation remains fluid. Uh it will be fascinating going into the offseason. Hopefully this episode you guys just got kind of a picture of where we’re at right now going into the off seasonason if Kyle Tucker doesn’t come back. Think he had a B season. Nothing wrong with that. Just wasn’t exactly what the Cubs needed. And as of now, I wouldn’t call the trade a win. It’s probably more of a loss. Definitely not a bust. Um but then the third part of this is do you want Kyle Tucker back? Do you want to resign him after what you saw in the second half of the season? Um, I’m I’m 5050 there. I need Matt to convince me on air. We need to talk about that because I think Matt’s much more all-in than I am and he has a really good perspective on that. And um, you know, we’re going to talk about it all offseason long. There’s so many fun interesting storylines about this Cubs team. I’m not just saying that so you guys watch. I think the Cubs are one of the most interesting teams uh, in the off season after a really good 2025. So uh, keep it here with us. This is Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On podcast. network your team every day. For your second listen, check out the allnew Lock MLB game night. They only got a few to go with the postseason going every game, every night, all season long. Get local analysis on a national scale. Find MLB Game Night on the Lock MLB channel on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. Have a great weekend, guys.

Sam discusses the Kyle Tucker trade as it stands today. He discusses why it may not have been a win for the Cubs but it also wasn’t a total bust. He then debates whether the Cubs should resign Tucker and gives a playoff update around the league

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