After a tough season, where does Cade Povich fit in with the Orioles moving forward?

After a tough season, where does Cade Povich fit in with the Orioles moving forward?

The curious case of Cade Povich. What does his future look like on this Orioles team? We’ll try to answer that coming up on this episode of the Locked on Orioles podcast. [Music] You are Locked on Orioles, your daily Baltimore Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. Hey there, Orioles fans. Today is Tuesday, October 21st, 2025, and welcome back in to the Locked On Orioles podcast, part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day. As always, I’m your host, Connor Nukem. And coming up on today’s episode, we are going to continue our Orioles 2025 player season review series. We’re going in order from best to worst in terms of FOR this season. And today we get to the left-handed starting pitcher, Cade Povich. We’ll talk about what went right from his season with kind of mixing up a new grip to his change up to get a little better. We’ll talk about what went wrong with the hip injury and some issues under the hood. And finally, we’ll chat about his biggest storyline heading into 2026, which is probably will he even be a big part of this pitching staff. But that’s all coming up on this episode of the Locked on Orioles podcast, which is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on MLB for $20 off your first purchase. So, we’re continuing our series, reviewing every season from guys on this Orioles 40man roster. And today it is Cade Povich because yes, despite some stats that weren’t great, which we’ll get to, he still posted a 1.4 fan graphs war, which isn’t a lot for a guy who made 20 starts and threw over 112 innings, but because the Orioles were so bad this year and won 75 games, he ended up being a lot higher than you would have wanted it to be. Yes, he was fifth on the Orioles fan graph war rankings in terms of players who ended the season in the organization. So, let’s begin with Kade Povich. What went right for his season? Final stats for him this year, 22 appearances for the Orioles, 20 starts. He threw a 112 and a3 innings pitched. It was a 5.21 ERA with a 4.18 fip for Kate Povich. This year, he went ahead and posted a 24.2% 2% strikeout rate which was up from last year and an 8.8% walk rate down from last year as well. Povich who ended the season in the oral six-man rotation and began the year in the fiveman rotation. And that is where we begin with what went right is that Kate Povich I think more than anyone else in spring training this year legitimately won a spot on the opening day roster because of his spring training performance. Generally no more than two players every year really win a spot on the roster because of spring training and for and performance. Most of spring training is just getting guys ready for the season. I think fans want to think more often than it actually happens that guys win their spots. It only happens a couple of times a year. For example, I think Colton Cowser in 2024 like won his spot over H Kirststad. I think this year K. Povich won his spot in the rotation because of how well he pitched in spring. It wasn’t just the stats, although he did four starts, 14 and two/3s innings, good RA, 15ks to four walks. His stuff looked better. He was throwing strikes. It was also that he was coming off a great September in a 2-6 erra in five starts to close out the 2024 season. But we were down to basically a fifth spot in the rotation because Grayson Rodriguez had sustained an injury in spring training. We knew it was an arm issue. We didn’t know the extent of it, but we knew he was going to be starting the year on the IIL. He was not going to be part of that top five. So, it opened up a spot. It basically came down to either Cade Povich or Albert Suarez for that final spot in the rotation to go along with Zack Efflin, Charlie Morton, Dean Kramer, and Tommyuki Sugado. And Povich did have the great September, but Suarez was coming off that breakout year for the Orioles where he pitched in relief and as a starter. And even though he had shown he could pitch well in relief, which maybe had most people kind of pushing him towards the bullpen because he became pretty clear it was going to be one of the two was going to be the long reliever and the other one was going to be the fifth starter. I would say that even though it made more sense for Suarez to go to the bullpen, if you would have said at the beginning of spring training, hey, we’re going to be down to these two guys, I think most Orioles fans would have picked Suarez over Povich just because of how important he was and because Suarez was out of options. Povich was not and could have easily just gone down to triple AAA. But Povich, I think, impressed more than anybody in spring training 2025. He had added that new kick change and kind of changed up the grip and the movement of his change up to get more drop on it to hopefully get some more swing and miss, which he did get and we’ll talk about in a moment. And while Albert Suarez just, you know, kind of did Albert Suarez things, Povich looked really, really good. And again, I think some of the factor was Suarez had shown the ability to have success in the bullpen, so he felt better just putting him in a relief role, which the Orioles did on the opening day roster. Povich did enough in spring to get that opening day rotation spot. Unfortunately for him, it didn’t go super well throughout the year, which we will talk about, but it’s big to come off a year where, you know, you were part of the team. He made 16 starts for the Orioles in 2024. He was really good in September. He was on the wild card roster and was maybe even going to start game three of the wild card against the Royals if the Orioles had gotten there, but that didn’t guarantee anything for Kate Povich. There was still a lot that he certainly had to earn coming into 2025. And I think it was good for him that he showed off the changes he made the offseason and kind of put them to play in spring training. Now, the other thing that went right for him is that that new change up that really put him on the scene, I think certainly helped him out this year. I mean, he increased the the drop, vertical drop on that pitch with the new kick change grip. That was kind of the the sexy new pitch in Major League Baseball this year. And he even changed the grip a couple more times as the 2025 season went on. And while other things didn’t go so well for Povich this year, the change up almost got better and better as he made little tweaks and adjustments and started to move more and more as the season went on. And this here opponents hit just 197 with a 34% swing and miss rate against Povitz as change up. That was a lot better than the 250 average and the 24% whiff against his old kind of basic change up he threw in 2024. And he did still pretty exclusively use it against right-handed hitters. He only threw four total change ups against left-handed batters this season. But that’s what a lefty has a change up for. It is to attack right-handed hitters. And it was a really effective pitch for him. was his top pitch in terms of strikeout percentage in terms of swing and miss rate. And when he pairs it with his four seam fast that has that good ride, that kind of rising action out of the hand, 17.4 in of induced vertical break on that povage fastball, which isn’t elite, but is really, really good. And a curveball that I think has some good shape. That’s a really good package to attack right-handed hitters. Lefties generally throw four seamers, change ups, curve balls to get him. And I would argue those are Povich’s three best pitches that he throws. Now, he was not incredible against either sided hitters, righties or lefties this year, but he was distinctively better against right-handed hitters. Lower WOBA allowed against them, and he was able to kind of knock off any splits issues that he might have, which is good for a left-handed pitcher because you’re generally going to see more right-handed hitters than lefties. And if you can be better against righties, it allows you to stay in, especially as a starting pitcher, for a longer time in the major leagues. Unfortunately for Povich, even though he was better against righties, it didn’t mean he was really good this year. And yeah, it was great that he began the year in the rotation, but I mean, you know, his first start was four and a third innings of three-run ball, and it was fine. And the next one was six innings of one-run ball, and he was just kind of solid early and then was very up and down for the rest of the year. He never really found his footing this season. I mean, at the end of the day, when you give a team 112 innings and you post a 5.21 ERA, there are issues there. And that’s what we’re getting into next. What went wrong in Kate Povich’s 2025 season with the O’s? We’ll break that down right after this. But first, this episode of the Locked Orioles podcast is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL season is here and FanDuel has an offer you don’t want to miss. Right now, new customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That’s right. 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So, that’s why I started using Monarch, an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or phone. Monarch can help me organize my accounts, track my spending, and get a better handle on my investments without having to touch a spreadsheet. and I can review everything financially with my partner, see shared goals, and make better financial decisions. So, don’t let financial opportunities slip through the cracks. Use code locked on MLB at monarch.com for 50% off your first year. That’s monarch.com code lockedMLB for half off your first year. So for Kade Povich, there were certainly some pluses in his season, but I would say the negatives outweighed the positives for him in 2025. So we move to what went wrong for Cade Povich this year. And let’s start with the fact that like pretty much everyone else on this Orioles roster this season, there was an injury for Povich. He ended up going on the injury list on June 16th with left hip inflammation. Now, initially the Orioles thought it was going to be a pretty short-term injury. You know, 15-day IIL, they figured there’d be a chance it wouldn’t be much more than those minimum 15 days that he would have to miss. And the timeline of his rehab start kind of tked with that. 10 days later, June 26th, he made a rehab start in Triple A Norfol, which would have set him up to potentially return to the big leagues after the minimum 15 days. And he did make that start, but something was not right. He suffered another setback in the hip. The Orioles kind of shut down his rehab and gave a TBD. They waited a few weeks and on July 13th, he began his rehab assignment again, but this time in high Aberdeene instead of AAA. He made one start in Aberdine, then went up to AAA and made three more rehab starts there. So, four in total before he was activated off the injured list on August 4th to return back to the big league. certainly ended up being a longer rehab than the Orioles thought because of the setback. But when he came back, he was basically the same pitcher. I mean, he had a 5.2 something erra in the final two months when he came back and it’s basically the same exact thing he was doing in the first couple months and change before the hip injury. I mean, he did he had dropped his cutter and then he started throwing it again some in September, but that was really the only big kind of change. And then we saw a little bit different movement profile and the change up, changing up the grip a little bit more. Otherwise, he was he was pretty much the same pitcher in those final two months, having the the same kinds of struggles at times in his starts. And under the hood, it um it was not pretty for Kate Povich this year. And not that it was incredibly pretty when you look at the under the hood data from last year, but if you’re watching here on the locked on Orioles YouTube channel, you can see this screenshot from Statcast and Baseball Savant. This is from Kate Povich’s baseball. Zavant page, those sliders. That is way too much blue and dark blue on the page from Povich this year. Like you dig a little deep. Not good stuff. Now, strikeouts went up, walks went down from last year. Two positive things. Certainly things that he can take away and feel good about this year. I mean, he got his strikeout rate to well over league average. 24.2% is pretty good. But you can see like the hard hit rate 47% that’s bad. Barrel rate up over 11%. That’s bad. You know, the average exit velocity was in the fifth percentile over 91 miles an hour. That’s not good. Wasn’t getting a lot of chase. You know, walks were down, but they still weren’t great. Not um not where Povich wanted to be under the hood. And again, he did raise his ground ball rate. So, that helps you with all the hard hit balls as we talked about with Trevor Rogers. But, you know, the force, sweeper, cutter, that all got hit super hard. Now, if you want to talk about luck, there was some bad luck. Like his ERA was basically the same. It was 520. Last year, it was 521 this year. But last year was a 479 FIP fielding independent pitching. This year was a 418 FIP. That’s kind of an ERA type number, but shows you what his RA kind of should have been if you just take into account what Povich can control. Home runs, walk, strikeouts, taking out the way the defense plays. So Povich was certainly a little bit unlucky, but all that hard contact is generally only going to go so far when we’re talking about a guy being unlucky. You still got to limit a little more of that hard contact and he just he was not able to do that. And when you look at the mix for Kade Povich, like that’s one thing that’s always working for him. Like he does have six different pitches. Four seamer, curveball, change up, sinker, sweeper, cutter. He throws them all. And that’s good when you don’t have elite stuff. Kate Povich has, you know, a 97 overall stuff plus, that’s nothing elite. You don’t have elite stuff. Well, if you have five, maybe six pitches like Povich has, it gives you a better chance of being able to keep hitters off balance and attack them. But the issue was for Povich is that although the change up was good, as I talked about, and you know, I like his four seam fast ball and those are his main two pitches, the breaking balls were terrible. And you can only go so far as a major league starting pitcher if you don’t have at least a solid breaking ball. Now he throws a curveball, a cutter, and a sweeper. The cutter had been bad. He went away from it again. As I said, he brought it back in September. I really don’t think that’s a pitch he should stick with. So for me, it’s really sweeper and curveball. I still believe in the curveball. I think it’s a good pitch. It was much better at times last year, but it’s still it’s it’s still gotten hit hard. You know, we’ll see. At times, the 309 average against it, although a 247 expected batting average against that curveball makes you feel a little better. It’s a weapon against righties. I’m fine with this curveball. Maybe just tweak the command of it a little bit and it can be better. But that sweeper just did nothing for him. And and the sweeper was a pretty good pitch. Now, he only threw it 7% of the time in 2024. He also had kind of a harder gyro slider that he would throw as well. He he completely got rid of that gyro slider this year, but the sweeper last year, you know, he got some swing and miss. Opponents said, you know, expected batting average of 170. It was a pretty solid offering. This year, that pitch wasn’t a it was a disaster. He threw it about 12% of the time, more so to lefties, but he did throw a good chunk of sweepers to righties. and opponents hit 358 with a 660 slugging percentage and a 93 mile per hour average exit velocity against Povich Sweeper with not a ton of swing and miss. And the worst part is like he’s better against righties than lefties, but you still need a pitch to get lefties out. And the sweeper should be that pitch for most left-handed starters in the big leagues who throw a sweeper. Again, that’s a a slower slider with more kind of left to right horizontal movement. That’s what the sweeper is. Has more spin on it. It’s generally a pitch to get lefties out when you are a left-handed pitcher. And it was his one number two mostused pitch against lefties. It’s clearly the plan for him to throw the sweeper to get lefties out. But one of the reasons why lefties may have hit him better than righties this year is because his main strikeout pitch against lefties just didn’t work at all. And that’s that’s not good. The the amazing part is lefties hit 333 with a 697 slugging against Povich’s sweeper. This year in Major League Baseball in 2025 in the regular season, left-handed hitters against sweepers from left-handed pitchers across the board hit 180 with a 296 slugging. And yet against Povich, it was 333 with a 697. These are pitches generally the guys can’t get hits and can’t drive for extra bases at all. And for some reason they did it against Povich. I don’t know if it’s VLOO, right? He throws it around 83 miles an hour. Maybe that’s too hard for a sweeper to do all the things it needs to do movementwise. I mean, you look at the break, it it doesn’t break as much as a usual sweeper. It’s got less than 10 inches of horizontal brake. You know, most guys who throw it like that have 12, 13 plus inches of break across the zone. So, that could be another issue. It’s It’s just not a very good pitch and it’s not doing what he wants it to do. He’s going to have to scrap it, I would think, or reimagine it or go back to the gyro slider that he used to throw. I mean, he was ranking essentially almost dead last in Major League Baseball for breaking ball run value. Run value is a statcast component that tries to put a value of runs you either gained or cost your team based on how you fare against certain pitches. So breaking balls for Povich that combined cutter, sweeper, and curveball this year. And I didn’t talk a lot about the cutter, but it was not good either. He just barely threw it this season. The run value combined for those three pitches was a negative 16. That was worst among all starters on their breaking balls this year. Now that’s not a underlying metric stat. That’s more of a performance stat, like what happened once hitters put those breaking balls in play or once they took them for walks or struck out on them or whatever. And the results were awful. Sometimes run value is not a great stat because you can look dive deeper into the hood. You can say, “All right, this is bad luck.” When the underlying stats aren’t good and the run value is not good, it’s telling you that sweeper just change it. Change it. Change the grip. Go back to the regular slider. Whatever it may be, that thing didn’t work at all with what he wanted it to do. So, it wasn’t just the sweeper, though. There were other things in Povich’s game that just didn’t work like he wanted them to in what was supposed to be his first full big league season in 2025. So, the question is, he heads into the offseason, he heads into 2026. What’s the plan for him next year with this Orioles team? We’ll try to sort that out to finish off the show coming up next. But first, this episode of the Lockdown Orioles podcast is also brought to you by Game Time. There is nothing like catching a baseball game live. 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Download Game Time today. So, for Kate Kovich, not a great year. 521 ER right questions are biggest storylines for him going into 2026 like what is his role on this Orioles team? I we’ll have to see. I mean a lot of it is we will see depending on what goes on this off seasonason how much pitching they end they add. But it’s a big question I think for Kate Povich in terms of like the offseason question for him. What does he need to work on? He’s got to find a breaking ball that works against lefty. Something needs to change with that sweeper cuz it’s not working. The -10 run value on his sweeper tied it for the worst sweeper in Major League Baseball this year. Will Warren of the Yankees was also on a negative 10. Those were tied for the worst sweepers in the big league. Something’s got to change with that pitch. Go back to the regular slider. Whatever it may be. Maybe it’s just cutting the sweeper entirely. And and he really leans more into his two best pitches, which I think are clearly the four seam fast and the change up. He throws the two of them as his number one and number two pitches already, but he can use them even more. Like there are guys to look at. Matthew Boyd of the Cubs came back from injury, made the All-Star team this year. 70% of his pitches are either a four seamer or a change up. And he’s a lefty who throws 93. Kay Povich is a lefty who throws 92. He could do it. Andrew Abbott, soft tossing lefty, similar thing. Throws a ton of four seamers and change ups. Had a 287 erra this year. Kate Povich was at 58% fast change up. If you can get that more up to like 68% whether it’s a righty and maybe be willing to throw the change up more against lefties. Again, threw four total change ups against left-handed hitters. Lefty lefty change ups can get guys guessing a little too much and can get outs for you. And again, it was, you know, there’s been some good writing about this. This was one of the worst offensive seasons for the entire league when facing left-handed pitching in a long time. This is a chance for Povich, you know, not a dominant lefty, to take advantage of that, and he didn’t do it this year. And a lot of those struggles from the league have come against these fast ball change up guys where they have the high-rise forceamer and that kind of kick change up with the drop and you just kind of never know what’s coming and you can’t sit on one pitch. I think Povich may have to lean into just more fast ball change up. Doesn’t mean he has to fully ditch, you know, the curveball or the sinker or the other pitches, but throw more of them. Again, it’s around 60, get it up to around 70, 75% of those pitches because they are by far his best two. But even if he does that, there is a gigantic question surrounding Povich heading into the next year, which is will he even have a spot in this rotation or on this team? Now, one, you know, he’s he’s here for a while. He’s not a free agent until after the 2030 season. So, you know, he’s 25 years old. He’ll be 26 in April. The Orioles have plenty of team control on him, and he does have minor league options available for next year. So, if he doesn’t make the team, he can just be placed in AAA Norfol to begin the year. That gives him roster flexibility, which is good for the Orioles, but might hurt Povich because if he’s on the bubble, it makes it more likely that he begins the year in Norfol, but he may be down there anyway because is there going to be a spot for him? I mean, right now, if the Orioles make no additions, you would probably say the rotation is Trevor Rogers, Kyle Bradish, Dean Kramer, Tyler Wells, and then if you’re not trusting Grayson Rodriguez, then then probably Kate Povich would be your number five starter going into the season if no moves are made. if Grayson Rodriguez is not fully healthy enough to be in that spot. But we can feel confident the Orioles are going to add at the very least one and I think most likely two starting pitchers this off season. Plus, you’re hoping you do have a healthy Grayson Rodriguez and that’s at least what the plan is at this point. So that pushes Povich to number seven at best and maybe even the number eight starter when the Orioles get to spring training. And and that is good depth to have a guy who’s made, you know, almost 40 big league starts over the past two years. That’s good depth for you to have who still has minor league options. But if he’s not going to find more consistency than he had this year, he’s not going to have a leg up on some of these other guys. You know, when the Orioles do make these moves, Tyler Wells probably gets moved into the bullpen. Maybe even a Dean Kramer gets moved into the bullpen or a Grayson Rodriguez because of injury concerns and other things gets moved into the bullpen. Is that there for Cade Povich? I mean, he’ll need to be there for depth either way. Even if he does begin the year in AAA, you know, he will start games. You always need more than five starters. And if you’re the Orioles the last couple of years, you need at least 10 starters and maybe more. So, as long as Povich stays healthy, he is going to start games for the Baltimore Orioles next year. I can pretty much guarantee that even if he’s not, which I’m planning him not to be, in the opening day starting rotation. But there’s a difference between planning on 10K Povich starts and planning on 25K Povich starts next year. Those are two very different things for the state of this Orioles roster. You should hope it’s going to be more near the 10 number. So maybe I mean is a move to the bullpen a possibility? Could he pitch well enough because there is so many openings right now in that oral bullpen rather than in the rotation that you know if they do bring in starters and it pushes Povich out that he has the ability to instead start in Triple A begin the year as maybe a long man in the bullpen instead of in the rotation. You you know he’d rather do that than begin the year in Norfolk. I’m not sure how much his pitch mix will play up in the bullpen but it is a possibility. But I think the last thing for his like biggest storylines heading into 2026 is is maybe the bullpen is where he needs to be and not necessarily as like a one ining high leverage guy. More of a multi-ining long relief guy. More of the Albert Suarez, you know, Dietrich ends type role, but you look at the splits for Kate Povich this year. I mean, he had a 2.95 ERA the first time through the order. So against his first nine batters every game, 2.95 RA. That’s really, really good. Second time through the order, 5.66 ERA. Third time through the order, 10.42 ERA. Those last two are not good. So, you can feel good about him that first time through and then it pretty much became a disaster after that. Strikeouts went down, walks up second and third time through the order. It was not good. Now, the Orioles twice this year, because if you noticed, 22 appearances, but 20 starts. Twice this season the Orioles used an opener, you know, to pitch the first inning and then brought Kabe Povich in in the second. The reason teams generally use an opener is for guys like Povich who struggle second and third times through the order, it allows you that when you do get to the third time through the order, you’re not facing the top three or four hitters the third time through. Maybe you come in in the second inning, you face 5, six, seven to begin the inning. The first time you get a third time through, you’re facing 5, six, seven. instead of one, two, three, you’re facing worse hitters generally your third time through. It gives you a better chance to have success the second and third time through the order. That’s why the Orioles did that. And two of Povich’s best outings this year were those two games when he pitched as the bulk guy behind an opener. The first one he gave the Orioles like four scoreless innings. And the second one he allowed three runs, but he struck out 10 batters in five innings against the Astros. It was his best strikeout game of the year. Tied a careerhigh for him. So, you start to think like, okay, maybe it’s not with an opener, but if it’s more in a a two to three inning bulk relief type role, if he can make the team, maybe like the final guy who makes the bullpen into that long relief swingman type role, maybe he could do it. Now, I feel it’s most likely he does begin the year next year in AAA North because the Orioles bring in enough rotation depth, they find enough good relievers that he has the options and he’ll begin the year there. And again, he will pitch for the Orioles next season, just maybe not at the beginning of the year. But because of what we saw in those different kind of roles, if he can make those changes to the breaking ball, change to the sweeper, I think it’s absolutely possible that Kovich could have honestly more possible that he’d have a bullpen spot than a rotation spot to begin the year. How well would that work out? We just kind of have to wait and find out at this point because we never seen him pitch in like true true relief in the major leagues rather than just being the follower to an opener. But that’s maybe a way he could get on this team because right now the way it’s projecting out and the way he’s pitched and as aggressive as the Orioles should be this off seasonason. There’s really nothing close to a guaranteed opening day spot for Kovich. We’ll see what what he can do and what the Orioles do around him on that roster. See how this conversation looks, you know, four or five months from now when it becomes a little more important. But that’ll do it for today’s episode. Thank you so so much for tuning in. Make sure to like, comment, and subscribe to the Lockdown Orioles YouTube channel. Subscribe, follow, leave a fivestar rating and a review wherever you listen, Spotify or Apple Podcast, that really helps out the show. And if you have any mailbag questions, Orioles questions, you want to talk some ball, you want to give critique on the show, I I appe all of it, you can always email me locked on [email protected]. Plan is unless we get managerial news to continue uh this uh chat as we go through these season recaps. Next up on the list, Adley Rutman and Jackson Holiday will be the next two of these season recaps. You’ll certainly want to tune into those beginning on tomorrow’s episode. But until then, I’m Connor Nukem and this has been the Lockdown Orioles podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Cade Povich did not have a lot of success in his first full MLB season, and now he is on the outside of the Baltimore Orioles starting rotation plans for 2026. Host Connor Newcomb recaps Povich’s season and discusses his new changeup, his hip injury, the overall struggles, and more.

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