THIS is What a Franchise Savior Looks Like

THIS is What a Franchise Savior Looks Like

Only one team has lost more games since the turn of the century than the Pittsburgh Pirates. There are a few reasons for that, but ultimately it comes down to the lack of good players. Since they last won a World Series in 1979 on the backs of Willie Starel and Dave Parker, there have been two distinct bright spots. Once in the early9s around a guy named Barry Bonds, you may have heard of him. Once Bonds left in 1992, the team would not achieve a winning record for 20 straight years, finally breaking that streak in 2013. This time they were led by MVP Andrew McCuten. I would categorize both of those players as franchise saviors, a small market team’s dream, a homegrown talent that you can pay the league minimum to while they’re simultaneously one of the most valuable players in the league. Since McCutchen has fallen out of his prime, the Pirates are back to where they often find themselves, looking up at the rest of the league. But just maybe, they have another guy waiting in the wings, another guy that looks to be a franchise savior, and that guy is Connor Griffin. Since losing the 2015 one-game wildcard series, it’s been a downhill ride for the Pirates. That downhill ride would hit rock bottom in the coh shortened 2020 season when they won just 31% of their games, 19 of 60. GM Neil Huntington was fired after the 2019 season, leaving the team in one of the worst positions of all time. Not only did they have one of the worst major league rosters in the league, their farm system was also barren. Thanks to seemingly endless draft misses along with a questionable trade, the future was not bright and neither was the present. They subsequently got the first overall pick in the 2021 MLB draft who turned out to be Henry Davis. He hasn’t turned into the franchise savior that they hoped him to be. In 2021, the Pirates won 61 games and lost 101 despite a strong season from Brian Reynolds. In 2022, they again surpassed the 100 loss threshold, winning only 62 games. 2023 finally saw some improvement, winning 76, which would happen again in 2024. But in 2025, they’re on pace for roughly 70 wins, which means they’re going in the wrong direction. You might be thinking, “They got Paul SK. They got one of the best young pitchers that we’ve ever seen. Even though he’s going to win the Sai Young Award in the National League this year, the winning percentage for the Pirates is not really showcasing that. Most of that comes down to the offense. In 2025, the Pirates ranked 29th in WRC Plus with 85, meaning that they’re 15% less productive at the plate than league average. They have only 107 home runs, 28th less than the 29th ranked team. They have scored the least runs in the league. They strike out the fourth most in the league. And to top it all off, they’re the 25th ranked base running team in the league according to base running. They don’t get a lot of runners on base. They don’t get a lot of runners in scoring position. And even when they do, they aren’t cashing them in. Their OPS with runners in scoring position is a whopping 664, which is good for the lowest in the league behind the Twins, White Socks, and Rockies. As you can see, the teams that don’t hit well with runners in scoring position are one, typically teams that aren’t good at hitting, and two, teams that lose a lot of games. So, if a stat is that important, then it needs to be at your fingertips at any time. And with Statad, that is possible. Stathead is a search engine built into baseball reference that lets you slice the data in any way you want. For example, using the split finder, I can find which teams are the worst hitters with runners in scoring position. So, I just choose the RAP split, look at teams in the 2025 season, and sort by ascending ops. And once you hit search, you can see who’s at the top, the Pittsburgh Pirates. So, if you want to use Statad for yourself to find stats like this, use the link in the description and use my code walitics for 20% off. This offense collectively is certainly on the lower end in terms of production. In the past 10 full seasons, hitting has been the element of a team most correlated with winning, well ahead of base running and defense and edging out pitching. When you add on the impact of defense and base running, that reveals the reason why position players are typically more valuable. With the Pirates offensive struggles, they basically give themselves no chance for a playoff birth. But things may change soon, and it all might come down to one player. It’s hard to get hyped up for the MLB draft in comparison to drafts in other sports leagues like the NFL and NBA. In the MLB draft, we know that almost every single player won’t see the majors for at least a year, and most will take multiple years to make an impact on the major league team. Even high school players picked near the top of the draft take years to develop in the minors. Generally, it’s not uncommon to see a highly drafted college player fly through the minor league system, but when a high school player does it, it’s typically someone special. Eight players were selected before the Pirates took Griffin at number nine in the 2024 MLB draft, who was the first high school player taken off the board. Griffin profiled as an athletic freak at 6’4, 205 lbs along with 70 grade speed. His power speed combo is something that many teams target high in the draft. Though, why did so many teams pass on him? Well, many scouts were thrown off by an unorthodox swing that raised contact concerns. Griffin possessed elite raw power, but would he even make enough contact for that to matter? A lot of scouts thought his glove would play much better in the outfield rather than shortstop due to his size and speed coming into the draft. And with those uncertainties, even with his high ceiling, eight teams decided to pass on him. The Pirates front office, led by GM Ben Cherington, pulled the trigger on him at nine and would not have him playing any pro games for the remainder of the 2024 season. That would make 2025 his pro debut. And let’s just say it went pretty well. His first 50 games of the season were for the low A Bradenton Marauders. Griffin hit .338, had an OPS of 932, a WRC plus of 156, hit nine home runs, and also went 26 for30 on stolen bases. With that hot start, Griffin was quickly promoted to High Greensboro, where he picked up right where he left off. An average of 325, an OPS of 942, a WRC plus of 170, and 33 stolen bases. At this point, he gave the Pirates front office no choice but to give him a shot in double A. This 19-year-old kid dominated low A and high A, but double A is a different animal. It would be hard for him to keep up the pace he set at the lower levels of the minors. And as it turned out, he would not be at the same pace as he was in those low levels. He was somehow even better. A 337 average, 961 OPS, and a 175 WRC plus. His best offensive line at any level this year. You’re supposed to see prospects struggle a bit when they get promoted, not just flat out get better. Now granted, this double A stint was only 21 games, but a 19-year-old at this level is not supposed to make it look this easy. He’s five to six years younger than the average player at the level. All in all, across three levels, he posted a 333 average, a 941 OPS, a 165 WRC plus, 65 stolen bases, and 21 home runs. Not bad for your first professional season at 19 years old. In fact, it was by far the best 19-year-old we saw in the Miners this year. His only competition amongst players that young and broke into double A are Jesus Mday of the Brewers, Colt Emerson of the Mariners, Leo Deere of the Athletics, and Nelson Rada of the Angels. Mday was the most productive hitter of those players, posting a WRC plus of 128, which is obviously nowhere close to Griffin’s mark. If we gave out a minor league MVP award, it would certainly, in my mind, go to Griffin. Remember those concerns that many scouts and teams had with Griffin during the pre-draft process? Yeah, well, those don’t exist anymore. Griffin ran a 75.7% contact rate in the minors this year, which is closer to average. He struck out 21% of the time, which isn’t mind-blowingly low, but with his profile, that will certainly work well. His swing is noticeably different since the pre-draft process before, as the pitch was being delivered. You can see how far his bat wrapped behind his head. This creates the long swing that led to his hit total concerns. Now, though, the bat is in a much more neutral position, allowing his swing to be shorter and quicker to the ball. This might cut down on his bat speed a little bit, but it’s a trade-off that’s certainly worth it. He’ll be able to make more contact with more pitches. Griffin played most of this season at shortstop, even though most would thought he’d be a better fit in the outfield. The Pirates are giving him a chance to stick at the six, and it’s paying off. Sports Info Solutions tracks minor league defensive runs saved, using the major league out probabilities to determine how well each defender is performing. Because they’re using the major league model, most minor league players find themselves well into the negatives. Other prominent shortstop prospects this year did not grade out all that well. Leo Dere recorded -15. Jesus Mday had -6. JJ Weatherworld had -2. Kevin McGonagal had -2. This is not a knock against these guys. Most minor league players are far from refined players on the defensive side, especially at a premier position like shortstop. Griffin was not only better than all these guys, he was better than every single other shortstop in the minor leagues, but one. He had a positive seven defensive runs saved at the position, second behind Maximo Aosta of the Marlins. A player with this profile just does not come around often. Elite production at the plate, the speed to seal 60 plus bases a year, and elite defense at shortstop. We do see some players generate this kind of hype on occasion, but do they actually work out? Has there been a player like this before? If so, where are they now? Well, I think there is one that we’ve seen recently, and he certainly looks pretty good right now. There have been just seven seasons since 2010 where a 19-year-old or younger recorded at least a 160 WRC plus at any level in the minors. Those seasons are Samuel Basio’s 2023 season, Vlad Guerrero Jr’s 2018 season, Bo Bashette in 2017, Eloy Jimenez in 2016, Byron Buckston in 2013, Mike Trout in 2011, and Will Meyers in 2010. The comparisons that stand out the most here are Buckton and Trout. They’re the only two that also had the defensive upside that Griffin does. They aren’t exact comps, though. Trout had much better play discipline, and Buckton was a generational defensive center field prospect. Griffin doesn’t quite have those traits, but nonetheless, this is great company to be in. And if you want to be in great company, go ahead and subscribe to the channel because most of you aren’t and you’re missing out on some really great company. There really is only one comp that I can make with Griffin and it’s none of those players that I just mentioned. This player is a guy that most of you probably know, and his name is Bobby Wit Jr. These two players are almost too similar. Wit also flew through the minor league system. He did have to deal with COVID which slowed him down as the 2020 season was cancelled but his first full season at 21 years old was just as impressive as Griffins. Wit was two years older though he played in double A and AAA exclusively so it balances out the age difference. Their walk rates are nearly identical. Their strikeout rates are within one and a half percentage points. Their contact rates are in the same tier. The overall production is high. They both hit for power. They both steal a ton of bases. They of course both play shorts stop and are elite defenders. They’re also a similar build. They’re north of 6 foot and over 200 lb, which is abnormal for the shortstop position, but they make it work just fine. If we can take a look where Wit has gone since then, we can get an idea of what the future for Griffin might look like. Remember I said there’s only one team that lost more games since 2000 than the Pirates. That team is the Kansas City Royals. Going into the 2024 season, they were regarded as one of the worst teams in the league. coming off a 106 loss season and seven seasons of losing before that. But somehow they made a huge jump and even made the postseason in 2024. A lot of that had to do with one player, Bobby Wit Jr. Even though he didn’t win the MVP award, Whit put up one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen that year, posting over 10 F-word. With the extension that the Royals signed with Wit, they’ll be in at least contention for the playoffs for years to come. I bring this comparison up to really show what a franchise saving player looks like. And so far, Griffin is checking every box that he can. And when we overlay the Pirates success with the Royals, it looks relatively similar. The Royals got their guy, and the Pirates might be next up. And it’s actually not only because of Griffin. Remember how bad I said the Pirates offense was? Well, when we look at the pitching, it’s a different story. The Pirates have the sixth most valuable pitching staff according to F4, only behind five teams in playoff contention. Not only that, they have the eighth youngest pitching staff in the league as well. This graph shows this relationship where the x-axis is the average pitcher age and the y-axis is pitching value. The Pirates are in the quadrant where you want to be in, both youthful and valuable. A lot of that has to do with the way the front office has decided to use its resources. The majority of the early round picks have gone to pitchers and a lot of them have developed to be major league contributors. They have five pitchers that are under 27 years old and had an X-fip of under four this season. Of course, you have Paul Skins. We don’t need to talk about him. They have one of the top pitching prospects, Bubba Chandler, who’ll be in the rotation at the start of the next season. They have Carmen Majinsky, Braxton Ashcraft, and Mike Burroughs as well. XFIP is one of the best predictors of future erra, which means the future is pretty bright on the pitching side at least. All of these guys strike out to walk numbers are great, and none of them struggle with giving up a ton of fly balls. This just might be the Pirates rotation for the next four to 5 years, which is about as good as it’s going to get for a small market team. This team is set up to be saved. Everything is in place except the offense, except the star hitter in the middle of the lineup. The only thing really left to do is to make sure to lock Griffin into an extension early, much like the Royals did with Bobby Wood Jr., the Diamondbacks did with Corbin Carroll, and the Brewers did with Jackson Churio. It doesn’t have to be as lengthy as Wits. But even with the Pirates ownership, they did it with their previous savior, Andrew McCutchen. If they’re smart, they’ll do it again because players like Connor Griffin don’t just change the lineup, they change the entire franchise. And for a team that’s been waiting nearly half a century for their next Barry Bonds, this might finally be their chance. Thank you for watching. Subscribe if you enjoyed and I will see you next time. Goodbye.

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The Pittsburgh Pirates have been bad for a long time. They are in need of a savior, and they just might have one in Konnor Griffin.

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0:00 Intro
0:58 The Pirates Struggles
4:05 The Savior
7:22 No more concerns…
9:18 Searching for a Comp
12:04 The Pirates Future

#mlb #baseball #pittsburghpirates