Commanders vs Chiefs Picks – NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Commanders vs Chiefs Picks – NFL Week 8 Monday Night Football with Kyle Kirms

Yo, what’s up? Welcome back to another episode of the Swiss. Continuing on with NFL week eight, we’re on to Monday night. Washington’s on the road in Arrowhead. Uh had a nice NFL Sunday and a nice college football Saturday as well. So hopefully the positivity continues. Yeah, Monday Night Football. Let’s talk about it. I mean, it’s Cooper Russ two and a half points. I would hope Quinners put up a decent statline against Arizona State. If he didn’t, we have a real problem. You can say the same thing about Kraton. Okay, they have the one good game against Panthers at home. When Toast talks about the kicking market, it’s like some Earth is flat And Candy, true or false, this is going to be a dog walking. Dog walking. This is my dog walking of the day. I think it’s going to be very ugly. I think this is going to be ugly. Hey, get this to us. All right, so we got Patrick Mahomes on Monday Night Football. Uh since the 2021 season, Mahomes has played seven games on Monday Night Football. He’s 4-3 straight up, just one and three against the number. So, betting on Mahomes to cover on Monday Night Football has not been profitable since 2021. Uh, the good news for the Chiefs though, they have not had problems with this Washington franchise. Eight consecutive wins, all eight by a touchdown or more. In fact, Washington has never won a football game at Arrowhead ever. They’ve never won a football game here. Check out this game right here. September 18th, 1983. The final score was 2712. It was the Washington Redskins back then. Obviously, the reason I’m pointing this game out, this was actually the last time Washington beat the Chiefs. September 18th, 1983. So, we’re talking about 42 years since this Washington franchise has beaten the Chiefs. So, uh Chiefs looking to extend it beyond 42 years here. Now, obviously, that doesn’t really mean anything. It’s more just fun stats to make the video cool, but it’s interesting. 42 years. Been a long time since Washington’s beaten the Chiefs. Uh so will the streak extend? Uh well coming into this one, this will be the Chiefs third consecutive home game and this home stand has gone pretty well for the Chiefs. They had the big game against the Lions. I believe that was on Sunday Night Football Final score was 317. They followed up with a big division win that I mean 31 nothing doesn’t even tell that was a destruction. They destroyed the Raiders. So this will be the Chief’s third consecutive home game. They look really strong on this home stand so far. They’re matched up against a Washington team that’s kind of on the opposite trajectory. I mean, you had that heartbreaker against the Bears on Monday Night Football. Probably a game they should have won. Turnovers killed him and then the end of the game, the Bears squeaked it out. So, kind of a heartbreaker there at home on Monday Night Football. But then the following week, he had a big game in Dallas. And honestly, if Washington gets that game, they move to 4 and three with a big road division win. They still play Philadelphia twice on the schedule. So, that would have salvaged everything. Washington would have been in great shape had they won that game in Dallas. That’s obviously not what happened. I mean, not only did Washington get completely dusted, 44-22 was the final score. But in addition to that, to add insult to injury, or to add injury to insult is probably the proper phrase here, Jayen Daniels gets injured in the game. Now, I’m reading it’s not serious. It’s not long-term, but he will not be playing in this game against the Chiefs. He has been ruled out. Um, good news though, Terry McLaren is back, which is huge. He hasn’t played since I want to say midepptember. I think he’s been out since week two. No, I think he’s been out since week three. So obviously missing your quarterback is going to hurt and that’s a big deal. But they do get what’s probably their best playmaker back in Terry McLaren. And we don’t want to just completely write this Washington offense off because Jayen Daniels is out. The offense actually looked pretty good in the two games Marcus Mariota started. In fact, you could probably make an argument it was their two best offensive games of the season against the Raiders and Falcons. They averaged 34 points per game, 7.1 yards per play, over 55% success rate. These are electric offensive numbers. Now, the Raiders game, they were in a very advantageous position. Uh they were coming off Thursday night football at home with four extra days rest. The Raiders played a Monday night football game and had to fly across the country. So, it was a very favorable position, uh the Raiders game. And then the Falcons game, they were playing from behind the whole time. So, they were racking up some nice rushing numbers down two touchdowns late in the third quarter where Atlanta might have been sitting back in coverage. So, these numbers are are definitely a little padded, but the point I’m making here is we can’t just write Washington’s offense off. I mean, Marcus Mariota can definitely play. And it’s not like this Kansas City defense has been elite this year. They’re 15th in success rate, 10th in EPA per play, shaky numbers against the run on the season. The question is, did we just see this Chiefs defense turn the corner last week? Because they played an amazing game in week seven. So, are we seeing the Chiefs defense turn the corner here in these last couple weeks or did they just play a home game against a terrible Raiders offense? Um, but specifically what you like to see if you’re a Chiefs fan, the run defense does seem to be coming around. In the first four games, it was kind of concerning. They were allowing over 5.2 yards per carry, 40.8% 8% success rate per rush, over 128 rushing yards per game. But in their last three games, and by the way, it’s not just the Raiders. They played the Jags, the Lions, some respectable opponents. They’re allowing just 77.3 rushing yards per game, under 3.9 yards per carry, just 26.3% success rate per rush. So, good news if you’re a Chiefs fan. The run defense does seem to be coming around. That’s obviously huge in this matchup because, you know, Washington is not trying to drop Marcus Mariota back to pass 3540 times in this game. Now, Washington does have some efficient rushing numbers on the year. If you look at their game logs, I mean, they have been running the ball efficiently in most of these games, but I got to say, are we looking at a sell high? I mean, are we looking at a an overvalued Washington Commander run game here? Look at this schedule. Where are the tough run defenses here for Washington? They open up the season against the Giants. That’s arguably the worst run defense in the NFL. Then they go to Green Bay. Respectable defense. Couldn’t do anything on the ground. 2.7 yards per carry. They had 51 yards rushing in the game. So, okay, they see one respectable run defense. They couldn’t do anything. Then they play the Raiders. Okay, the Raiders defense is respectable, but it was in that advantageous scheduling position. So, okay, the Raiders is maybe one after that. The Falcons have been struggling to stop the run all year. The Chargers, and that was the injured Chargers defense when they were missing Khalil Mack and Denzel Perryman. If you remember, the Chargers were getting lit up by everybody around this time. Then they played the Bears at home. I mean, the Bears don’t have a good run defense at all, and they were actually struggling to run the ball against the Bears in that game. And then they played Dallas, who’s probably the worst defense in the NFL. So, okay, they have some efficient rushing numbers on the year, but looking at their game logs, I mean, the only time they saw a respectable defense in Green Bay, they were unable to run the ball. You could say the Raiders game and maybe I I’d hear you out, but again, that was a really really favorable position. So, I’m really not sure if we can count on Washington giving Mariota run support in this game. I mean, the Chiefs defense, their front seven seems to be coming around. I think Washington’s rushing numbers might be a little inflated. I’m not sure if Washington can run the ball in this game. Now, we know Spagnola is going to be sending blitz packages because that’s what Spagnola does. I will say Marcus Mariota is not a rookie. He is plenty of starting experience. He’s actually got really uh efficient passing numbers on the year when blitzed. So, look, I’m not implying that Washington’s offense is going to be completely inept. Marcus Mariota can probably make some plays and and I’m sure they’ll be able to move the chains a little bit, but I I I don’t see much on paper here that indicates Washington’s offense is going to go nuts in this one. I think the Chiefs defense should play well. Now, there is an interesting aspect to the matchup on this side of the ball. Cliff Kingsbury, the Commander OC. It’s Kingsbury vers Mahomes. In case you didn’t know, Kingsbury was Mahomes head coach at Texas Tech. and Mahomes has spoken very uh very highly of him several times. So, I’m not that there’s really anything to take. Mahomes doesn’t play defense, so it doesn’t even matter. I just thought that was interesting. We have seen Cliff Kingsbury get a shot at Steve Spagnola’s defense. It was in 2022, his last year with the Cardinals. It did not go well. Spagnola definitely got the best of him. The final score was 44-21. But don’t get it twisted. This final score is misleading. It was 377 in the fourth quarter and the Cardinals scored a couple of garbage times a garbage time touchdowns late in the game. So we have seen Cliff Kingsbury get a shot at Spagnola and Spagnola definitely got the best of them. As a whole on this side of the ball, I’m not sure how much offense we can really rely on Washington to give us in this one. I think the Chiefs defense, it should be a favorable matchup for him. Now on the other side of the ball, Kansas City’s offense playing like it’s 2021. It looks like the the young Mahomes is back. I mean, this offense looks electric. They’re second in the NFL in success rate, fourth in EPA per play. Now, Washington’s defense hasn’t been completely terrible this year. They’re 10th in success rate, 24th in EPA per play. I’m a little worried based on what we saw last week, and there’s some injuries there to the Washington defense. We’ll talk about it in a second, but let’s start with the Chiefs injuries because Kansas City did just take another hit on the offensive line. Starting right guard Trey Smith most likely not playing in this game. He’s listed as doubtful. That’s new. So, the Chiefs take another hit on the offensive line. Josh Josh Simmons has missed I want to say I think he’s missed like three of the last four games or something. So, that one’s not new, but the Chiefs are now missing two starters on the offensive line. The thing is this Kansas City offense has been on such a rampage that I think it’s going to take more than losing one guard to slow this unit down. In their last four games, they’re averaging 31 12 points per game, 6 1/2 yards per play, over 57% success rate. And look at the opponents. It’s not like they played scrubs. The Raiders defense is respectable. The the Lions defense has been great. The Jags defense is even playing pretty well this year. Now, the Ravens at the time were struggling defensively. So, all right, that’s an easier game, but it’s not like they played complete scrubs. This Chief’s offense is on a war path right now. Patrick Mahomes, like I said, he’s playing like the 2021 version of Patrick Mahomes. In the last four games, he’s been essentially perfect. Over 282 passing yards per game, delivering from a clean pocket. The offensive line’s doing a good job keeping him protected. Yeah, it’s tough to poke holes in this Kansas City offense right now. And based on what we just saw Dak Prescott and the Dallas offense due to this Washington defense, how can we possibly count on them to make stops on the road at Arrowhead? Last week, Dallas scored 44 points, 7.1 yards per play, 45.8% success rate in the game. Dallas absolutely lit this defense up. And if you’re worried about the Chief’s offensive line, okay, two starters on the offensive line, that is significant. Well, Washington just took hits on the defensive line. Armstrong’s out for the season. That’s new. Uh Wise Jr., he’s been out for a while. And Don Payne might not even play in this game. He’s listed as questionable. I’m reading that he hasn’t practed for some reason, but I’m reading that he hasn’t practiced all week. So, okay, you could be concerned about the Chiefs offensive line, but Washington’s defensive line might actually be in worse shape. Is this the defensive line that that you think is equipped to exploit Kansas City’s offensive line problems? Not to mention Patrick Mahomes has done a great job handling pressure so far this season. He’s been great against the Blitz. He’s actually got nice numbers from a clean pocket. Again, remember there was like a year and a half where for some reason Mahomes couldn’t deliver from a clean pocket. Now it could have been the receiving targets. They were very injured. Uh but but the point I’m making is Mahomes has been handling pressure well. And even more importantly than that, he’s getting the ball out quickly. An average throw time of 2.43. 43 seconds. So, even if you are a believer in this Washington pass rush, and I don’t think it’s bad. They got Fawn Miller, they’ve got Preston Smith, they’ve got guys, but this this Washington defensive line isn’t in the best shape. They’re struggling against the run. There’s really nothing on paper that indicates Washington can make stops here on the road at Arrowhead. If you’re betting the Commanders, if you’re counting on the Commanders defense, I suppose you can look at the potential quote unquote look ahead spot here. Uh the Chiefs have a huge game on the road in Buffalo right after this on a short week. So maybe if you want to play the look ahead spot angle, but personally there’s just not enough here. I would make this game 13 and a half, maybe even 14. The way the Chiefs are playing right now and and the way Washington’s trending. So it would only be Kansas City for me. I don’t have a bet on the game. And after what happened Thursday night, I’m a little hesitant. I don’t know if you remember Thursday night. So I didn’t really like the Vikings, but I was like, “Ah, screw it. I’ll I’ll play Minnesota plus three and a half.” and I ended up starting off the week down a unit. The last few weeks NFL have been good to me and ended up giving a unit away just because oh no, I don’t want to pass on a prime time game. This is a big number. I do think Kansas City wins comfortably. I actually think they’re going to win the battles pretty comfortably on both sides of the ball. I think the Chiefs defense is going to play well. So, it’s Kansas City minus the big number here. 11 and a half is currently showing. As far as the total, I’d probably lean under to be honest. Uh, but the way the Chiefs are playing, yeah, give me I I’ll say under at a flat 48. Again, I don’t have a bet on the game. I I like Kansas City more than the under. If I was to place a bet, it would be Kansas City minus 11 12. I just realized while I was editing this that I didn’t really even mention why I would lean towards the under. Um, so with Buffalo on deck, Washington’s really been struggling against the run. So, if the Chiefs are able to get out to a lead, I would imagine the second half is going to be long, boring drives where the Chiefs are just handing the ball off, chewing the clock, and I’m not sure able to get off the field. So, maybe early in the game, the Chiefs come out throwing the ball around. But in the second half, if the Chiefs are up double digits, which maybe they’re not up double digits, but at any point if the Chiefs have a lead in in the second half, I would imagine we’ll see a slow drive. So, I would lean towards the under. I’ll probably make the total like 46 and A2 47 though. I not I’m not jumping at the opportunity to bet this under. Thanks for watching and thanks for the comments recently by the way. There’s been a lot of positive I was talking about this on the live show. A lot of positive comments the last few day. I guess that’s could be cuz the picks have been doing well. Uh but yeah, in this industry it’s tough. There’s a lot of people that shouldn’t be gambling that can’t handle losing. So obviously majority of the comments are going to be negative even if things are going fine. Uh so the positive comments appreciate it. Oh, and quick edit. Good news. The Buffalo Bills offensive depth chart has been updated. Amari Cooper is removed. I did it three times. Amari Cooper has been listed as a Bills wide receiver three times on this show this year. And then I see the comment and I’m like, damn it, I got to update that. And then I forget. Just want to confirm Amari Cooper has been taken off the Bills offensive depth chart. So yeah, everyone have a good one. See you on the live show. Bet responsibly.

Kyle Kirms shares his breakdown and picks for the Week 8 Monday Night Football game between the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs.

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