The 49ers WILL BEAT The Falcons Tonight If…

The 49ers WILL BEAT The Falcons Tonight If…

Welcome into the San Francisco 49ers report. Chase Senior hanging out here with you. Really excited to dive into this here on the program. Niners Falcons big game in the NFC coming up on Sunday Night Football. So, what we’re about to break down and dissect keys to the game, matchups to watch, what the Niners must do to win this game, and of course, my prediction. Let’s set the foundation and set the table by taking a look at how both of these teams fare on both sides of the football. Offensively for Atlanta, that 30 to nothing loss against Carolina has brought down their points per game. But the last two games, they’ve really started to get it together offensively and you see that based upon some of these other numbers here. But they are 27th in points per game at 20. But they’re number two in yards per game offensively in the NFL at 378.8. So they have really moved it. 5.7 yards per play. That’s 10th. They’re good on third downs, converting 41.7% of those third down opportunities. They have struggled to punch the ball into the end zone. Number 27 in red zone touchdown scoring percentage at 43.7%. To the defensive side of the ball, giving up just 20 points per game. That’s seventh. Yards per game. Number one in the NFL defensively there. Yards per play 4.8. That coincides with the yards per game number. Third down efficiency number four. So the fourth best third down defense at getting off the field. But in the red zone, they are a little bit lacking there. 66.6%. That ranks 24th. For the ners offensively, 24th in points per game at 20.8. a lot of instability at the quarterback spot and on offense with all these injuries. Hopefully, they could start to find their groove. The return of George KD should help them running the ball, put up points, and in the red zone and obviously help out and aid this passing attack. Yards per game, the Niners have not struggled there. So, that’ll be a good matchup with Atlanta. 373.7 yards per play, not a ton of explosives because of the injuries. When Kendrick Bourne is your number one, that’s going to happen. You don’t have a lot of field stretchers. 5.4. The Niners the fourth best third down offense in the NFL. But in the red zone, the struggles continue, 28th there at 42.8%. This Niners defense has started to slip a little bit without Nick Bosa. Now they’re without Fred Warner moving forward. 15th in points per game, 15th in yards per game, 18th in yards per play. They are the fifth best third down defense in the NFL. And the red zone defense has started to go down a little bit with all of these injuries. 20th there at 61.1%. With that, my keys to the game for the Niners to pull off a victory here and stop a hot Cardinal or a Falcons team, different bird that’s coming into Levi Stadium on Sunday night. Number one, you got to stop Bejian Robinson. I think right now he’s the best running back in football and he’s one of the best overall all-around offensive players in the game. We’ve been waiting for this breakout to happen at Texas. A star-studded prospect as he’s played for Atlanta as an collective offensive unit. They really haven’t been able to get it together. This is the year though where he’s really started to find his stride and that’s coincided with the Falcons offense playing a lot better and more consistently this season. Look at these numbers running the football. 83 carries for 484 yards, ladies and gentlemen. 484 rushing yards through five games played. He’s also picking up 5.8 yards per carry. That is an absurd number. He has two rushing touchdowns, but he’s not just going to hurt you running the ball. And when he runs it, it’s in between the tackles. It’s getting out to the edge, and he’s a home run threat. He can also excel in catching the ball. This is why when he was coming into the draft out of Texas, he was a top five overall player on my board. Very rarely do I view running backs in that manner, but Bean’s that special. 24 catches, 338 yards, and another touchdown through the air. And not only has the absence of Nick Bosa hurt the Ner’s pass rush, obviously he’s one of the top pass rushers in the game. Funny enough, we’re seeing his value as a run defender come to light without him on the field because the Ner’s rushing defense has struggled mightily without Nick Bosa as well. Before the Bosa injury, the Niners were giving up 3.68 yards per carry. After the BOSA injury, San Francisco is surrendering 4 and a half yards per carry. That is a 23% decline in rush defense efficiency. A big reason for this too is because of the personnel packages that the ners and Robert Salah were able to use when Bosu was healthy. He could play defensive end, he could play defensive tackle. Bryce Huff could play defensive end which could slide Sam Ookuano Yur Gross Matoss and Muel Williams on the inside but without Bosa you can’t do as much of that. So this has been a concerning regression for the ners with the rush defense efficiency going downhill. How’s it going to get any better with Fred Warner now out for the rest of the year? He dislocates and fractures his ankle and he has done such a great job of being an elite run defender putting his defense in a position to make plays and be successful. I will say this about Tatum Beth, seventh round pick out of Florida State. Kind of slow, but he’s instinctual. He plays with good feel. He can read and diagnose plays at Florida State. I liked him in the pre-draft because he’s good against the run. And I think you’ll see a little bit of that early on from him, but in the pass game, how does he hold up? Because he lacks some of that lateral quickness and really that vertical speed to cover the seam. Key to the game number two, can this 49ers offensive line please just give M. Jones a chance on Sunday Night Football against Atlanta? Now, in 2024, the Falcons had one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and they had one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. This year, though, they’re a lot better, and they’re one of the best teams at sacking the quarterback, and they’ve gotten production from everywhere. All of these following players have at least a half sack on your screen. James Pierce, Devine Diablo, Billy Bowman, Sam Roberts, D. Alfred, Jaylen Walker, David Anyada, Rook Auroro, Leonard Floyd, Kaden Ellis, Brandon Dorless, Zack Harrison. And if you look at all the positions listed there, they’re getting sack production because they’re creative and exotic as a defense from all types of different positions. Defensive end, check. Defensive tackle, check. Linebacker, check. Corner, check. Safety, check. So, they will do a couple of things to really try to confuse this Ner’s offense. And up front, this Niners offensive line has been putrid both against pressure looks and even when teams just send three or four because they get bullied, especially along the interior. And this Falcons defense, this is a huge jump from last year when they allowed the highest completion rate in football at 69.9%. They gave up the second most touchdowns at 34. They were last in the NFL in sacks with 31. And they were last in pressure percentage at 28.1%. And Atlanta not going to quite be as aggressive as Todd BS usually is, but we know Todd BS is a very aggressive defensive mind and play caller too, right? And that Bucks pass rush was unrelenting against M. Jones. I mean, he didn’t have an opportunity back there to have success. He was starting to see ghost because he got hit so much. The Buccaneers against the Ners in week six registered 22 total pressures. 11 hurries, six sacks for a pressure rate of 11.3%. If this happens again to the Ner, they will not beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday night. Key to the game number three, let’s stick with this awful offensive line that might put me in an insane asylum by the time that the season is over. The Sners offensive line needs to run block and they just need to find a way to execute and figure it out. Now, I think it’s because of a lack of personnel. They’re not strong enough physically along the interior. But, can you have some more stretch runs? Can you have some pitches to the outside to give Christian McCaffrey easier running lanes where visibly he can see it? Perhaps. Can you run some ender rounds, some jet sweeps, just do something to try to get this Ner’s non-existent run game going? Because this isn’t sustainable for Kyle Shanahan’s offense. The Niners are dead last in yards per carry at 3.1. We’re talking about a Kyle Shanahan runheavy scheme here, ladies and gentlemen. They’re 16th in rushing attempts per game at 26.8. So clearly, they’re at least trying, but they’re 30th in rushing yards per game at 82.2. And they only have one rushing touchdown all year. I believe they only have one rushing play of 20 plus yards all season long. It’s ridiculous. And so I’ve been trying to figure out what’s going on with this Niners run game. To me, upon looking at the tape, looking at the numbers, it’s the offensive line. It’s not Christian McCaffrey. Now, is Christian McCaffrey as fast and as explosive as he was in 2023? No, he’s an older back and last year he had a couple of really severe injuries. But look at these yards before contact numbers this year compared to 2023 when McCaffrey won offensive player of the year. The first set of numbers from Sumer Sports. I saw this and I’m like, I got to look at a couple of different databases. So in 2023, McAffry’s yards before contact 1.85 yards. This year it is less than a yard. And that makes sense, right? Because how often have we seen McCaffrey get a handoff and immediately he is just coraled and swallowed up by defenders in the backfield for TFLs. Then I look at the Pro Football reference numbers and same two years, right? 2023 2025 yards before contact for CMC 3.1 in 2023, 1.9 here in 2025. It’s bad, man. It’s really bad. Key to the game number four, the Niners have to limit explosive plays. And this has been a constant issue without Nick Bosa. And then once Fred Warner went out, the Buccaneers were able to average seven and a half yards per play and for the game, seven yards per play. Not going to win a lot of football games playing defense like that because every two plays is a first down for the opposition on average. And so you look at the Ner’s problems with explosives. I also dug these numbers up. Before Bosa’s injury, Pursuer Sports, weeks one through three, the Niners gave up 5.3 explosive plays per game. These are plays of 10 plus yards. Four through the air, 1.3 on the ground. After Bose’s injury, it’s gone up to nine explosive plays given up per ball game. six through the air, three on the ground, and the pass play specifically up on average from four to six. This Atlanta offense, they have weapons all over the place. Behan Robinson is their number one. Tyler Algier is one of the top backup backs in the NFL. Michael Pennix can spin it. You have Drake London. Kyle Pittz is a freakishly gifted and athletic tight end who can kind of play hybrid wide receiver. He’s starting to get it going. This is going to be a hard cover for this Niners defense in week seven on Sunday night. And then lastly, is Atlanta ready for this moment? What I mean by this, they just won their biggest regular season game in years, taking down the Buffalo Bills in prime time, Monday Night Football. Nobody thought that Atlanta was going to win that game and take down Josh Allen. What happened the prior week in prime time? The Jacksonville Jaguars had their biggest regular season win in years, beating the Kansas City Chiefs, and I think they had lost to Kansas City like 10 or 11 straight times. What happened the following week for Jacksonville? Letown down spot at home against Seattle and they made a lot of mistakes and that was the classic letdown spot for Jacksonville. Is this going to be the letdown spot for Atlanta? Sometimes human nature factors into results and that is a talking point in this game. I want to see if Atlanta is ready for this moment. The other thing too, the Niners have the rest advantage because the Falcons played on Monday Night Football and they have to travel across the country. So, are the Niners going to be the fresher team? We know they’re the more banged up team, but with the current players who are healthy, could they be the fresher and sharper team? Predict the score. Atlanta, San Francisco, Sunday Night Football. I’m really excited for this matchup. And you know what? I want the Niners to prove me wrong here. I am just really concerned about how this defense is going to fare against this high octane offense that comes into Santa Clara playing confident football. And I think it’s going to take a couple of games for the Niners to adjust for life post Fred Warner. And I’m not sure they can make that adjustment in one week. So you’re without Nick Bosa, you’re without Fred Warner. Now you have to find a way to stop this offense. I think the Niners struggle in that area. Plus, I think the Niners offensive line is going to be killing them. So I think the Niners fall in this game 28-25. I hope I’m wrong, but that’s my prediction.

49ers vs. Falcons preview is coming up on the show as Chase Senior breaks down how the 49ers can beat the Falcons on Sunday Night Football. We’ll go through the latest 49ers news, 49ers rumors, Falcons news, Falcons rumors, 49ers vs. Falcons keys to the game and 49ers vs. Falcons matchups to watch.

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