MAILBAG: Kyle Tucker’s HOMETOWN Discount Not Enough for Tampa Bay Rays To COMPETE In Free Agency

MAILBAG: Kyle Tucker’s HOMETOWN Discount Not Enough for Tampa Bay Rays To COMPETE In Free Agency

Kyle Tucker could have a slim, very slim chance of becoming a Ray. But if he does, then that means that he agreed on one thing. You are Locked on Rays, your daily Tampa Bay Rays podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome into the Locked on Rays podcast. The Lockdown Race is part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And we are Kevin and Ulissiz, and we are Lifelong Race fans who have been podcasting about the Tampa Bay Rays since 2019. We have a mailbag episode on today’s show, and that includes discussing if the Rays will ever win a World Series. In a few minutes, we’ll look at the possibility of the Trop not being ready for the first home stand in 2026. But to start, everyone wants Kyle Tucker in a Rays uniform, but it’s not that easy at Ray Wilston. And we’re going to talk about all of that thanks to Fan Duel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. Kevin, signing Kyle Tucker is a pipe dream uh for the race, but there’s one way that this could happen, and that’s if he takes a short-term deal. If he takes a short-term deal, uh with I guess the idea or the thought of reestablishing his value, which I mean, he’s got pretty good value as it is. he enters the 2026 off seasonason or this offseason going into 2026 as the top free agent in baseball uh depending on what uh which website or publication you look at but maybe the numbers aren’t you know the tires get kicked around and hey I want $400 million I want big-time money like that but my best offer is 200 to $225 million so maybe he would be willing or amendable to a one-year getright deal to play up his value for the 2027 off seasonason. The issue is that he’s starting to get to the point where he won’t be a spring uh chicken. I think he’s 29 going on 30. Um, and I don’t know, I guess it it will there will be teams out there that will spend gobs of money on a 30-year-old outfielder that has a lot of reps under his belt. But I guess the the way we should put this is the Rays are not giving Kyle Tucker a 10-year, $250 million or $300 million deal. Uh, but maybe they entertain a one-year deal with a lot of money and incentives tied in. Now, can you remind me of the question that that brought this uh this mailbagger? Yes, it was from uh Keon or Kion. I’m not sure how to pronounce this individual’s name, so please correct me uh on that. It is K I and the comment was don’t count the raise out in the Kyle Tucker sweep stakes. Okay, so we’re not counting the raise out by telling you that there’s only one way that this could happen, and that’s a short-term deal because it’s funny how we’re saying like recoup some value. The dude was an all-star this year that put up a four plus war. So again, that’s why we have to preface this segment by saying it’s a pipe dream. It ain’t going to happen. But let’s play around because it’s October 29th. What is there to talk about? All right. Yeah. I mean, I I guess the thing is, so he’s been an all-star for four consecutive years. If you want to go back to 2024, he played basically half the season. And then in 2025, uh there was some vitrial from the Cubs fan base due to some slumps and issues that he was dealing with. There were also some injuries that he was fighting. Um, so I mean I get it from that perspective, but he’s got a pretty lengthy track record of success that would uh make a team like, oh, I don’t know, the the Giants or the Dodgers or the Phillies or the Yankees or even the Cubs say, “Hey, we’ll give you a ninef figure deal, a healthy ninef figure deal to be with our team for the next decade plus.” But definitely, he’s got the the career to to back it up. It’s just, you know, if you look at 2025, yeah, the splits between the first half and second half, you you can definitely see the the the decrease in production, but like you said, that’s really mostly because of the injury. Um the the thing is with with a short-term deal is what are we talking about here? Two, three years. And the issue with that is like, okay, well, you’d have to the only way he’s doing that is if the AAV just surpasses anything that he’s probably going to be getting. He’s probably going to get, again, napkin math, he’s he’s going to get around 25 to $35 million a year. So now you’re thinking, well, the premium is well, you’d have to go 4045 million a year. So you would go twoyear 90 mil, threeyear 110. And the thing is about that, a lot of money. and and and not to even rain more on this parade, but the dude is going to be saying yes to playing the last three years of Tropicana Field. Like that’s his his peak value would be, “Yeah, let me go play at Tropicana Field.” Even though Yeah. where my Yeah. is a very famous tweet, you know, in the heyday of the Rays. Uh I just don’t see it happening. Even if we go through this route of pipe dream avenue and go, “Oh, well, you know, short-term deal. We’re paying him 40 mil, 45 mil a season.” Then you have to go back. It’s the trap, man. He’s an outfielder. What? So he he capitalizes on his value for three years and then he gets hurt with the knees and then what happens then? Yeah. his his knees and shins are done by that point and he can’t capitalize on that secondary payday, if you will. Um, yeah, look, I know that Kyle Tucker was born and raised in Tampa and went to play in high school and all that, but uh I I don’t know if hometown discounts are necessarily in the cards. Maybe, you know, we’ll shave off $250,000 if if the price is right. But, uh, yeah, it’s going to take a lot of money whether it’s a short-term deal or a or a long-term deal. I’ll tell you what, though. I mean, you talk about ownership getting in the good graces of the fan base. This would be a splash move. This would be an exciting move. This would be a I mean, even if you sign Kyle Tucker, I don’t know if that puts you over the edge to make the playoffs based on what the situation is today, but you talk about filling a need immediately. How much have we harped on the outfield production offensively or the lack of it from this past season? I mean, Chris Morell, goodbye. See you later. we definitely don’t need you anymore. So, it’s fun to talk about. Um, look, I mean, I’m I’m The Rays will do their investigation as it is their due diligence, but um yeah, don’t uh I I would not necessarily putting be putting prop bets on uh Kyle Tucker being in a Ray’s uniform. We we need to scope on down the free agent list uh and and go from there. But, it would be really fun. It would be really fun to see that. I mean, you you plug in a 2530 home run guy, 850, 875 OPS guy, guy who’s been a four-time all-star, four straight all-star appearances, who’s been there, done that. Who knows what the brights the the the bright lights are like? And you know, it’s it would be ch changing the game for the Rays for sure. But the Rays must consider alternatives if the Tropicana Field roof isn’t completed in time for the first home game in 2026. This episode is brought to you by Price Pix. You and I make decisions every day. But on Price Picks, being right can get you paid. Don’t miss any of the excitement of this sports season. Whether you’re following the NFL, NBA, or both, there’s no better time to jump in on the action because if you haven’t tried it yet, prize picks is the simplest way to play. You just pick more or less on at least two player stats and if you get them right, guess what? Green Skittles go your way, you win. It takes less than 60 seconds to make your lineup and you can play anywhere. Price Pix operates. So download the Price Pix app today. Use code locked on MLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That’s code locked on MLB for $50 in lineups after your first $5 lineup price picks. It’s good to be right. Thank you so much for joining us at Lockdown Race, part of the Lockdown podcast network. Your team every day. The race must have a contingency plan if there is unexpected disruptions to the opening of Tropicana Field. Tell us about that second question for this mailbag episode, Kev. Yes, this one comes from John C and the question or comment is what do the Rays do if the trop is not ready for the first home stand? And some background here. Uh the Rays tried to take care of that by starting the season on the road. their first nine games are on the road. Or I guess I should say MLB ensured that uh the first nine games would be on the road and the Rays were probably like, “Yes, uh more time to make sure that the trop is ready.” Now, from everything I’ve seen and heard is that the trop does appear to be on track. Uh roof work is being done. I presume that they are looking at the interior and guts of the building to make sure that is running, make sure the the the water’s running, the the sewer systems good, the video board works, you know, the electric works, all that good stuff. Um, but sometimes there’s delays, sometimes there’s storms, sometimes crazy things happen. Uh Rob Manford in an interview uh earlier this week said he’s he he is hopeful that the trap will be ready for the opening home stand and he also added that it certainly is going to be open very early of the year. So you know somewhat positive that you know the the Ray should be able to play the entirety of their season at Tropicana Field. But say there is some sort of issue say that Murphy’s law does come into play. what will go wrong or what can go wrong will go wrong. I got to look up my Murphy’s law definition uh in the break. Um I I would think that they’ve you know considered alternatives if there’s some sort of issue. I mean lowhanging fruit here. I would presume that, you know, they can make that quick call to the Yankees and say, “Hey, can we use Stein Brenerfield for the first home stand?” Or if Stein Brenerfield is unavailable for some reason, can we use the park at Deneden or Clearwater if we want to be in Penllis County? Like there are enough ballparks, albeit spring training, minor league ballparks that you can leverage and utilize. is not saying that look I don’t think the Rays have to if it’s just going to be for a couple games a home you know the first home stand or whatever it is I don’t think you need to go through a whole retrofit rebranding to make it look like you’re quote unquote home but I think they they should be able to to squeeze out a couple games in a you know for lack of a better term a rental facility you know use use one of the many spring training ballparks that are in the surrounding Tampa Bay area and deal with that as it may, I think it it’s a slam dunk. I don’t even think uh the Blue Jays and the Phillies are are getting into this conversation because we just went through it and MLB said no, the only one that’s up to MLB standards for to hold MLB games in regular season is the the Yankee spring training. Uh so like it has to be that one. I agree with you. It doesn’t have to be retroactively fitted into your own stadium if it’s going to be for a couple home stands. let’s say it’s not going to be for any home game in April, then I don’t think it needs to be done. However, it it will be done because now we know that Warren Hypes and that amazing team that the Rays have, Warren Hypes, front of the pot. Um, they can do it in three days and it’s probably not great, but they know now they know we can do it for three days in three days. And they But would you do it? Okay, say you can do it in three days, but would you I mean, I guess it depends on the raise ownership. Would you do it knowing that you might only be there for a home stand? Like, is it worth all that effort? Worth it? Is it worth it uh financially? Um and is it worth on on the employees to do it? Maybe not. But but the issue is is that it’s MLB, man. Like, you need to have a standard. And that’s true. And the standard is a team cannot be playing with the other team’s you know home stand. So like should should would it matter ultimately? No. But I think MLB has a standard they would and they would say no you have to that you would have to do it. And again like I said they they know that they can do that exact same stadium in three days time. Is it would it even they would have to go to the depths that they went last time? Yeah. Uh, probably not if it’s just going to be Yeah, you might not need to do the exterior portions that you can see on Dale Mabvery. Maybe it’s just the interior of the park or the clubhouse or like some like you know like certain things around there. Uh, you know, you can probably cut some corners and in every project we know there’s lessons learned the LL’s. So they probably have the lessons learned and what what went wrong, what went right, what worked, what could have been worked better. So, I I do think that that part of the the the the project it would go much smoother than it did last time, even though last time it went so smooth they did it in three bleeping days. Uh but yeah, MLB would put their foot down and and say, “Well, no, let’s just do uh sign Brenerfield.” Now, I’ll ask you this. If it were to to happen where the race need a contingency plan, you would need to know ahead of time like when would th when would those news come out? February, March, January probably a project, right? You’re like, “Okay, we’re getting delays. We’re getting delays.” At some point, you’re going to have to look at April and say like, “Hey, we’re not going to make that deadline.” Yeah. You know, I I think there has to be some sort of deadline. I I mean maybe it’s in February or March, but you you can’t be like totally last minute with the drop uh in case something happens. So, um you know, I’m sure those conversations are being had, but you know, in a way, not saying it’s obviously it’s not good what happened at the Trop, but you know that you do in a sense have the safety net of Steerfield if there’s an issue with the Trop replacement. I know the St. St. Petersburg City Council is spending $22.5 million, but even in a $22.5 million project, there can be issues and delays for one reason or another. And like you said, I mean, there is familiarity there. The most of the players know where the clubhouse is now a day. Now, the the TV and radio guys, they know where to set up. We know that it’s MLB ready, MLB standard. And if you have to run in there 72 hours before to to get some branding uh squeezed in, you know, we we know that Warren Hypes and his team can knock that out. But I I will say here, as of this recording, this won’t be an issue that the Rays will be able to uh play their first game Monday, April 6th, uh against the Cubs. And it it kind of works out key with that. Not just having the first nine games on the road, but the fact that, you know, there’s also an entire weekend. I know the Rays will be playing, but you can have your, you know, work construction crews dealing overtime to to make sure everything is good to go by, I presume the Monday game is in an evening, so you might have a couple little extra hours to make sure everything is ready to go. So, uh, yes, let’s, uh, let’s just cross our fingers that the truck will be good to go. Um, also closing out today’s episode, uh, Chat GPT, they don’t like the Rays or it doesn’t like the race, however we’re referring to ChatGpt, the the platform, the AI platform, web-based platform, doesn’t like the Rays chances to win the World Series anytime soon or in the next 50 years. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or you want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. And you know what? You can always use them as green Skittles on FanDuel. That’s always a lot of fun. And right now, FanDuel is giving you customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. You heard that right. $300 in bonus bets to new customers when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com right now to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Thank you for listening to the Locked on Race podcast and making us your very first listen every day. We appreciate it. We are of course part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. Uh Arjis Rashad, a dedicated listener of the program uh points out the disrespect from Chat GBT to not have the raise as a World Series champion in the next 50 years. There’s a graphic uh on the interwebs uh that shows Chad GPT predicting the next 50 World Series champions. Um, and it’s interesting that uh if you look at 2025 to 2074, uh, the Rays aren’t there, but there’s a team called the Portland Pioneers that evidently will win it in 2048. And a team’s logo that I can’t decipher that’ll win it in 2049. So, uh, we have some team I guess Chad GPT knows something that we don’t know about. uh MLB expansion uh on the four. So, while the Rays aren’t anywhere close to winning a World Series, they can better their chances in a couple ways. And I will go on record and disagree with Chad GPT. I would hope and think and believe that within the next 50 years, at least once the Rays will be able to, you know, get that ultimate championship. I mean, we’ll be in our 80s. uh come come the next 50 years. So, you would think that uh we’d be able to at least have one or two um isn’t that uh to hang on the mantle? Isn’t that what the uh the Cleveland Indian fans have been saying for I don’t know more than 50 years. And isn’t that what the Cubbies fan said for a 100 almost a year and the Red Sox That is true. Very very valid point. Uh, I just think that hey, I don’t want to be Debbie Downer here. I’m just saying like, uh, you know, I think Chad Chad GPT is wrong. I agree with you there. But I don’t know, man. It it can be ugly. And when you look at that, I mean, you’ve got LA for the next couple years. You got the Jays, you got the Yankees, you got the Phil. I mean, you got everybody, man. Even your team, the Marlins win it in 2015. Isn’t that crazy? Isn’t that crazy? So, yeah, it’s it wasn’t I think it’s a funny post. Uh thank you or Jennis for for for sending us that uh you know I I think it’s fun fodder u to to think about what could be in 50 years you know hopefully in 50 years we’ll have a second new stadium you know because at least it’s for 30 years man right yeah well I I think that’s going to be the key is you know once you have the new stadium the idea and the development surrounding it you will hopefully have the fan engagement agement in attendance. Not that that will be the end all be all, but it will certainly help with payroll. And then with the ownership group making money hand over fist with the uh surrounding development of a ballpark and having all the events and venue and concerts and you know having something pretty much going on every night that that would allow you to get the payroll to a threshold of where uh you can get the payroll to nine figures and give yourself a better shot because we have we have the front office brilliance, we have the coaching, we have pretty good roster but we’ve been missing that extra player or two, that veteran player that’s been there, done that, like a Kyle Tucker for example, to just pull you over the hump and carry you to a World Championship. that Freddy Freeman moment of a a a home run in the 18th inning, you know, or a grand slam against the Yankees in game one of last year’s World Series. like those moments, those guys. Uh we we mentioned it the other time in the in both World Series runs, the Rays were being held up by a rookie, Evan Longoria, alongside BJ Upton and some other contributions, but ma mainly longer with his home run barrage with BJ. He was a a rookie in08 and then in 2020, Randy Rosarena was a rookie even. So, he didn’t even start the 2020 uh 60game season with the team. He wasn’t with the team, by the way. People forget, right? He was a late addition to to the team. So, uh yeah, it would be fun that in the next 50 years, not only do the Rays win, but the new stadium gives a little bit more money, feeds into the payroll, and so you’re no longer thinking, oh, are the Rays going to deal Yandi Diaz for 10.5 million? Can they afford Brendan Laauo for 11 mill? What are they ever going to do with Pete Fairbanks for 11 million? No, you pay those guys. You pay the allstars and then you go get some other allstars and you go out there and get some free agents and you have a hefty payroll that is not 500 million worth but it’s at least 110 115 and you start to you know rub elbows with with some of the other teams that that are doing good things. Yeah, I know that, you know, the postseason there there’s some luck involved and the the strategy is different from, you know, what the Rays traditionally do in the regular season, but you get that extra one or two or three players that can be difference makers that can carry you through the month of October and ultimately get you a title. So, um, yeah, I I’m gonna disagree with Chad GBT and say the Rays win at least one World Series in the next 50 years. God help us if they don’t. I mean, if the Marlins win one before we do, we’ve got problems. If if one of these expansion teams that I don’t even, you know, that don’t exist yet, that Chad GBT must have some inherent knowledge, proprietary knowledge that we’re not privy to, um, then then we’ve got some problems. But I have confidence in this ownership that they will put their money where their mouth is, especially once the new stadium is up and running. And uh we mentioned in the first segment of the distaste of players uh wanting to come to the drop. Well, I think with a new stadium, you might have a little bit of a better shot to lure some of those players, all else being equal and and hopefully I I you know, if it’s a covered stadium, you’re going to have artificial turf, but you know, put in something that you know isn’t so hard on the the knees, ankles, and calves there. and that might go a long way uh towards drawing some of those players and keeping some of those players as well. So, hey, we were close in 2008, we were close in 2020. How many more, you know, shot bites at the apple before we can carry it through? Uh maybe we need to get Blake Snell and Tyler Glass now back on the team. Maybe that’s Don’t open that can of worms. There’s like now a there’s this like growing Twitter uh raise world where everybody that left the Rays by trade, they start to hate. They started with Randy, with Esak, now with Glass now and Snell. It’s kind of like this weird world that these Rays fans are living in where they’re like, “Oh, I don’t like them. Then they wouldn’t have worked out here.” It’s like, “All right, you are drinking way too much front office uh Kool-Aid. We drink a lot of it.” By the way, I’ll say it right here and right now. The race front office is a top three in the league and they ain’t three. That’s how I feel. But I’m not going to just be saying yeah, yes, sir. Yes, sir. Yes, sir. To everything. And I don’t think you should either, people. Well said. Couldn’t have said it better myself. On that note, hope you all have a wonderful day. Stay safe and we will talk to you later this morning.

Tampa Bay Rays fans face a harsh reality: ChatGPT predicts no World Series championship for the next 50 years, while Kyle Tucker’s free agency remains a distant dream. Can the franchise finally break through once their new stadium opens?
Kevin Weiss and Ulises Sambrano tackle three critical questions about the Rays’ future, examining the astronomical odds of signing Tucker to a short-term deal, contingency plans if Tropicana Field isn’t ready for 2026, and whether increased revenue from the new ballpark will finally allow Tampa Bay to retain stars like Brandon Lowe and Pete Fairbanks instead of trading them for salary relief. The hosts debate MLB’s stadium standards, Warren Hypes’ impressive 72-hour transformation of Steinbrenner Field, and why blind loyalty to front office decisions undermines critical thinking about roster moves involving Randy Arozarena, Blake Snell, and Tyler Glasnow.
Discover why the Rays’ championship window depends on more than just brilliant management and player development.
0:00 Intro
0:02 Kyle Tucker to Rays slim chance
1:35 Short term deal only realistic option
3:22 Tucker’s All-Star value and injury concerns
5:45 Tropicana Field’s impact on free agents
9:43 Contingency plans if Trop isn’t ready
13:22 Steinbrenner Field as backup venue option
17:40 Chat GPT predicts no Rays championship
20:25 Comparing to Cubs and Guardians droughts
22:26 New stadium key to future success
24:01 Need difference makers for October success

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