I ran 5 million Monte Carlo simulations of the season to figure out what the playoff implications of every week 9 game are.

The Jaguars current odds to make the playoffs are 41.7%.

  • If you beat the Raiders, that goes up to 50.8%, but if you lose, it drops down to 27.3%. It's a swing of 23.5%.
  • LAC @ TEN is the second most impactful week 9 game for you guys. If the Titans win, your playoff odds go up by 4.1%. If the Chargers win your playoff odds go down by 0.9%.
  • ATL @ NE is the third most impactful game with a total impact of 3.4%. Your playoff odds go up if the Falcons win.

I also made a website and posted the full results there. I'll update it every week with the upcoming games. Here's the data:

Game Optimal Winner Impact Δ If Win If Lose Game Time
JAX @ LV JAX 23.5% +9.1% -14.4% Sun 11/02 4:05 PM ET
LAC @ TEN TEN 5.0% +4.1% -0.9% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
ATL @ NE ATL 3.4% +2.4% -1.0% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
BAL @ MIA MIA 1.2% +0.9% -0.3% Thu 10/30 8:15 PM ET
KC @ BUF BUF 1.0% +0.5% -0.5% Sun 11/02 4:25 PM ET
IND @ PIT IND 0.6% +0.2% -0.3% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
DEN @ HOU DEN 0.6% +0.3% -0.3% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
CHI @ CIN CHI 0.5% +0.2% -0.3% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
CAR @ GB CAR 0.3% +0.3% -0.1% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
SF @ NYG SF 0.3% +0.1% -0.2% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
ARI @ DAL ARI 0.1% +0.1% -0.1% Mon 11/03 8:15 PM ET
MIN @ DET DET 0.1% +0.0% -0.1% Sun 11/02 1:00 PM ET
NO @ LAR NO 0.0% +0.0% -0.0% Sun 11/02 4:05 PM ET
SEA @ WSH WSH 0.0% +0.0% -0.0% Sun 11/02 8:20 PM ET

I use this data as a rooting guide for the 1-3 games each week where I don't already know who I want to win.

If you want to see the details of my methodology for the Monte Carlo simulations, look here.

You can also see which teams are rooting for and against you this week here.

There's also a What-If Tool where you can pick winners and losers of any games this season and recalculate your odds.

7 comments

  1. I go into more detail on the [Methodology](https://footballsensei.com/methodology) page, but here is a summary of the model:

    I use Elo scores to represent relative team strength. For each game in the season I calculate win/loss odds based on the Elo of the two teams plus an adjustment for home field advantage. I do a Monte Carlo simulation of the season 5 million times and analyze the results.

    To get the start of season Elo ratings I combine 2 approaches. The first approach is taking the Elo score for each team from the end of last season and regressing it slightly towards the mean to account for offseason changes. The second approach is using Vegas total season win odds to infer an Elo.

    Elo updates during the season based on wins and losses in the standard way. To account for mid-season injuries and trades, I do a final adjustment to Elo each week based on the Vegas game lines. If Vegas has different game odds than what results from my Elo calculations, I adjust Elo to better match the Vegas lines, with a bias towards Elo reduction since the biggest changes are usually from injuries.

  3. After starting 8-3 and missing last year, I really dont even care about these stats anymore. JUST WIN. Our schedule for the first half of the year was INSANE. We need to focus on winning our division games and dominating at home, and we’ll be good.

    I rewatched a lot of the games, and Trevor needed to do more of what he did against KC. There were opportunities against Seattle where if he chose to move fast enough, he had an easy 10+ yards. They were begging to get ran on at times. That should be how he plays from here on out. He was fucking dynamic. He’s so athletic, and KC did not know how to deal with his ability to run because he just refuses to do it his entire nfl career.

    If he can tap into that more and trust his own legs, I think he can transform himself and also take out a defender in the secondary just by being that mobile threat.

  5. I was just looking at the schedule and there are easily 5 more wins we can pick up at least 

  6. Why do our odds go up to make the playoffs if another team in our division (Titans) wins? Wouldn’t we have a better chance of winning the division if they lose? Sorry if this is a dumb question. It just seems counter intuitive and I can’t root for the Titans.

  7. Raiders should be an easy win but I’m not getting my hopes up.

    Titans and Falcons win? Doubtful. Titans are a total dumpster fire . Expecting a win with them against Herbert and the Chargers? There are better odds that JFK is playing poker with Abe Lincoln in my basement right now.

    Patriots are on fire this season. I expect them to be at the Falcons.

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