Seattle Mariners 2025-26 offseason preview

Seattle Mariners 2025-26 offseason preview

The World Series is over. It’s officially the MLB off seasonason, which means that it’s time for the Mariners 202526 offseason preview. 2025 obviously ended in heartbreak with the Mariners losing to the Blue Jays in the ALCS game 7 up to zero heading back to Seattle and then we all know what happened after that. 2025 was right there within our grasp. It was ours for the taking is what it felt like. 2026, we win it all. And so on the agenda for today, we’re going to go through the Mariners 2025 end of season roster. look at some of the stats, talk through some of the positives and some of the notes of what we saw throughout the season. Then we’ll get into the 2026 payroll analysis for the contracts that are heading into next season and what to expect. Sounds like the estimated payroll for opening day is supposed to be around $166 million give or take. That’s just based off of what Jerry and Justin had said at the the end of season media presser. Then once we understand the payroll, we’re going to get into creating a competitive and sustainable roster for 2026 and beyond. The Mariners have one of, if not the best farm systems in baseball. I believe nine prospects in the top 100, the most out of any franchise. They have a a loaded MLB roster currently. They have the best farm system in baseball. A lot of guys that are going to make an impact this season. They can use some of those guys for for trade chips this off season and at the deadline next year. We’re going to try to figure out how to best utilize the resources that we currently have, the the money that we’re allowed, and we should be able to build a roster that can compete for a World Series next year and the rest of this decade. Then at the end, we’ll get into the opening day roster 2026 if the couch GM is the actual GM of the team. So, starting off, this is the Mariners 2025 end ofear lineup, give or take. It’s not talking the exact playoff roster or the exact end of season roster, but this is just a general of what you saw most days at the end end part of the season. This is the best Mariners offensive team that we’ve seen really ever, especially since the early 2000s at the very least. For a good part of the season, the entire 1 through9 was above league average in weighted runs created plus overall value at the plate. 1 through nine was better than league average, which is just unheard of for the Mariners. And in years prior where it was the pitching staff that was the strong part of the Mariners roster, this year it really was the offense. The Mariners went 90 and 72 this season, which is a 55.6 winning percentage. They have a had a plus 72 run differential. And this is actually the third time over the past five seasons that the Mariners have won 90 games. This is the third time over the past five seasons that the Mariners have won 90 games. And the Mariners are actually one of just four teams in MLB to win 85 plus games each of the last five years with the Dodgers, the Astros, and the Brewers. And as we know, the Mariners won the AL West division for the first time since 2001 this year. So while even though the Mariners got 90 wins two other times the past five seasons, 90 wins this year was able to get the job done. Part of that is the decline of the Astros we saw this year, but that just gives more fuel to the fire of why the Mariners need to go all in right now. The Mariners 113 weighted runs created plus was third in all of baseball. So their team as a whole was 13% above the league average team. Their 238 home runs this season was third in baseball. 161 stolen bases was also third in baseball. One of the best power speed combos in all of baseball. Their 766 runs was ninth in baseball. Their 244 average was 20th in baseball. And kind of surprising, the Mariners had the third overall weighted runs created. us. However, their 234 doubles was 29th in baseball and their nine triples were also 29th in baseball. So, while they had a ton of value at the plate, a lot of it came from the home runs and hardly any came from the doubles or triples. And going down the list, Randy Rosarena had yet again another 2020 season. He actually had a 2530 season, a 120 weighted runs created plus. Cal Raleigh MVP season a 161 weighted runs created plus on top of catching every day 60 home runs 125 RBI’s to go with 14 stolen bases. Now moving forward we can’t expect MVP Kyle to come out every year but with this type of season we can expect a certain level of production moving forward. I would say 30 to 35 home runs is more realistic. But if if he’s a 40 plus guy then that would be huge. The improvement that he made this offseason from the right side of the plate is incredible. Just for an example, last season versus left-handed pitching. So, as a right-handed hitter, he had a 183 average, a 696 OPS versus right-handed pitchers, his batting average was 50 points higher. His OPS was 70 points higher. However, this season, as a right-handed hitter, his batting average was 281, whereas his batting average from the left side of the plate was 231. His righty batting average was 50 points higher. And his OPS was 123 points higher from the right side of the plate than than the left. He had 205 plate appearances from the right side of the plate compared to 500 from the left side. And yet he hit 22 home runs as a righty hitter compared to 38 from the left side of the plate. He had a higher home run rate from the right side of the plate this season compared to the left. Whereas he used to be a heavy lefty power guy. Julio Rodriguez put together another 3030 season, a 267 average, 32 home runs, 30 stolen bases with 95 RBI’s. Year after year in April, May were asking, you know, why can’t Julio just play like an MVP every season, but what he has done so far in his career is on a Hall of Fame pace and it’s exactly what we’re paying him and what we could the the most that we could expect from him. Julio Rodriguez was the first player in MLB history with four straight 2028 seasons to begin his career and also the only player in MLB history with 110 plus home runs and 110 plus steals across the player’s first four seasons. He is the best center fielder in all of baseball and he is an incredible guy to build your roster around for the next decade. Josh Naylor, what an acquisition at the deadline by the Mariners and he is going to be their number one signing target as a free agent heading into this offseason. He had a 128 weighted runs created plus as a whole. With the Mariners specifically, he had a 137 weighted runs created plus. On the year, he had a 295 batting average, 20 home runs, 92 RBI’s, and 30 stolen bases. For a guy that has one of the slowest sprint speeds in all of baseball, he is a baseball IQ guy, is always locked into the games, and is a massive plus on your roster as a whole. Jorge Palano, what a season he put together after the year prior. He had a down year. He was injured after the Mariners had traded for him in January of 24. This season for the span of about a month and I think it was May and then also to end the season and into the playoffs. Jorge Blanco was one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He finished with a 265 average, 26 home runs, 78 RBI’s, 32% above league average at the plate as a switch hitter. He played a lot of DH this year, but we also saw a lot of second base in the later part of the year and heading into the playoffs. Jorge is another guy that you want to target in free agency to bring back for relatively cheap to really build the depth in your lineup. Aho Suarez brought in at the deadline. He was the biggest bat moved at the deadline. So good on the Mariners for going out and pushing in their chips and getting this guy. He did underperform severely with the Mariners throughout the the rest of the regular season with a 91 weighted runs created plus. He’s never an average guy. He had a 228. He finished with 49 home runs on the year, 118 RBI’s. Obviously some huge moments in the postseason from Gino, but the time with the Mariners has come to an end. Dominic Kzone was a good part of that lower third of the lineup for for a decent amount of time. He actually led the Mariners with batting average, a 300 batting average. He had a 141 weighted runs created plus. He played in just over half of the Mariners regular season games, 82. And he should be in the mix next year for that right field position along with Victor Robles. Victor Robas got injured very early on in San Francisco. He flew into that net and I expected him to be out for the rest of the season. Dislocated shoulder that looked bad, but he came back to do what he can the the rest of the regular season and into the playoffs. He had just a 75 weighted runs created plus, but he was signed to an extension which we’ll get into later, but I expect a big bounceback from Victor Robles next year and again somewhat of a platoon in right field with Dominic Kenzone and Victor Robas. In the ninth spot, JP Crawford, the most tenured Mariner currently, had a 113 weighted runs created. Plus, 265 average, 12 home runs, about par for the course of what to expect from JP in a season. Then on the bench, we had rookies Cole Young and Ben Williamson come up and get their cups of coffee. They’re going to be a big part of next year and and the future. Mitch Garver, backup catcher, Lukeley, Miles Master Bone, and then Leo Rivos with such a big moment in the postseason. Then we get to the rotation for the Mariners. It’s not 1 through five, it was 1 through seven essentially for the Mariners due to a down year that the rotation saw due to injuries. George Kirby ended up missing the team’s first 48 games due to shoulder inflammation which popped up late in spring training. That was unfortunate, but he came back strong and was able to finish finish out the season. Logan Gilbert missed 44 team games due to right forearm tightness. That was a big scare. Bryce Miller missed half of the Mariners season, 81 team games, over two separate stints due to a bone spur in his right elbow. Reports this off seasonason so far have noted that he won’t have to get surgery to repair that. Brian Woo ended up missing the team’s final eight regular season games due to pec tightness, but he had an absolute breakout year. And then Luis Castillo missed zero games. He was the only starting pitcher to not miss any starts. Now, speaking to Brian Woo, he made 30 starts, 186 in two-thirds innings. This this list right here is sorted by the amount of innings pitched. Brian Woo led the rotation innings pitched, which you would not have expected heading into this year. A 2.94 erra. His 0.93 whip was third in all of Major League Baseball. He had a 9.55 strikeouts per nine, a 1.74 walks per nine. His 5.5 strikeout to walk ratio was also third in baseball. His 200 batting average allowed was seventh in baseball. His 21 quality starts was tied for fourth. And Brian was one of the most efficient pitchers in all of baseball. He required just 14.54 pitches per inning pitch, which was second in all of baseball. Luis Castillo had a business as usual type of year. 32 games started, just Mr. Consistent, 180 and 2/3 innings pitched a 354 RA, 1.18 whip, 8.07 strikeouts per nine, 2.29 walks per nine, a 243 average allowed, 18 quality starts. Then Logan Gilbert, the most tenured guy in this rotation outside of Luis Castillo, had 25 games started, 131 innings pitched at 344 RA, 1.03 whip. His 11.89 strikeouts per nine, was first in all of baseball among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings logged. He also had a 2.13 walks per nine, 209 average allowed, and eight quality starts. Then George Kirby, 23 games, 126 innings pitched, a 421 RA, 119 whip, 9.79 strikeouts per nine, his 2.07 07 walks per nine. Of course, one of the lowest in baseball. He had a 248 average allowed and 12 quality starts. Brian Woo started 18 games. He logged 90 and a third innings, a 568 RA, a bit inflated, a 1.41 whip, 7.37 strikeouts per nine, 3.39 walks per nine, a 262 average allowed, and one quality start. Then the two guys that stepped in to fill in spots in the rotation when the rest of the guys were on the injured list, we’re talking Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans. Emerson Hancock pitched in 22 games in the regular season for the Mariners. 16 games started. He then came out of the bullpin later on in the year. 90 innings pitched, a 4.9 RA, 1.38 whip, 6.4 strikeouts per nine, 3.1 walks per nine, 266 average allowed, and five quality starts. And then the rookie Logan Evans came up, got his cup of coffee. 16 games started, 81 in a third innings pitch, 432 RA, 1.39 whip, a 6.53 strikeouts per nine, 3.43 43 walks per nine, 260 batting average allowed, and two quality starts. And shout out to Logan Evans because he was really called up and down, up and down, making starts here and there, just inconsistency with his schedule. So, I mean, I could only imagine how tough it is to be called up to the big leagues to make a start and sent back down to Tacoma. Then, talking about the Mariners bullpen, of course, Andres Munoz, best closer in baseball, arguably 64 games that he pitched in. He was the true closer this year. Instead of being the 7, eight or nine guy just against the best of the order, he was the ninth inning consistent guy. With that consistency, you’re able to get some solid production. 64 games that he pitched in, 62 and a third innings pitched, a 1.73 RA, which was fifth in all baseball among relief pitchers. A 1.03 whip, 11.98 strikeouts per nine, 4.04 walks per nine, a 162 average allowed, and his 38 saves were were third in all of baseball. who saw Edward Bazardo coming out and doing what he did this season and into the postseason. I don’t care how obviously the postseason ended. Yeah, some some a sore subject with with where he was put in there, but he was stellar throughout the regular season. And he was stellar throughout all of the postseason outside of one pitch. He led the bullpin in innings pitched this year with 78 and two/3s innings pitched over 73 outings, 2.52 RA, just over a one whip, 9.83 83 strikeouts per nine, just over a three walks per nine, and a 187 average allowed. And Gabe Spy had an incredible year as well. He’s the only lefty in the Mariners bullpin, which at some of our solution later in this video, we’ll be adding another lefty, but he pitched in 76 games, 62 innings, 261 RA, a sub one whip, a 0.87, 11.9 strikeouts per nine, a 1.6 walks per nine, and a 189 batting average allowed. And what is absolutely wild is that into October, Gabe Spy was rocking a 58 strikeouts to two walk ratio over 36 and a third innings pitched when pitching at T-Mobile Park that year, which is a 14.46 strikeouts per nine and 29 strikeout to walk ratio when pitching in T-Mobile Park. Carlos Vargas logged the second most innings out of the Mariners bullpin this season. He was acquired back in 2023 when the Mariners first sent Auhaneo Suarez to to the Diamondbacks. He’s a guy with electric stuff. I mean, sometimes I don’t understand how guys are able to piece him up when they do. He’s got a 98 mph sinker. He’s got wipeout stuff. He’s got this crazy follow through with his delivery. His numbers from his production this year, I think, are a bit inflated of where they will be in the future if he continues to dial in his stuff. A 3.97 RA, 1.35 whip, just a 6.31 strikeouts per nine, a 2.69 69 walks per nine and then a 269 batting average allowed. And then Matt Brash doing his thing. He pitched in 53 games this year. 247 erra, 1.25 whip, 11.03 strikeouts per nine, 3.42 walks per nine with a 229 opponent batting average allowed. So, now that we’ve recaped the current roster and what they did in 2025, let’s look at the plan of attack for this off seasonason. We’re going to free up capital to sign free agent bats by trading Luis Castillo and JP Crawford. I know that can be controversial. JB Crawford the most tendered Mariner right now with the team for over seven years. Luis Castillo one of the veterans in the rotation. But at the end of the day, the Mariners are limited in payroll. They have to do what they can with the resources that they have. Luis Castillo is the highest paid player on the team. JP Crawford is heading into the final season of his contract. That is money that you could free up. His his defense has been declining. His bat is just league average. But more importantly, the future is now. shortstop. Colt Emerson, one of the best prospects in all of baseball, is waiting for his opportunity. I mean, you’re hearing it already with reports that the Mariners are going to look at Colt Emerson getting the Julio treatment in spring trading this next year, meaning that he could play his way onto the opening day roster. I think you trade JB Crawford, give Colt Emerson the keys to shortstop moving forward. Let him grow into it. The future is now. I also think the Mariners number three overall draft pick in the 2025 draft, Lefty Cade Anderson, is going to be in the starting rotation by the end of the season. You also have guys like outfielder or first baseman Lazaro Montes. You’ve got utility infielder Michael Aoyo who might play some outfield. Obviously, Harry Ford is now going to step into that Mitch Garver type role at at catcher. But going through the eight-step plan of the couch GM’s off seasonason, we’re going to first trade Luis Castillo. We’re going to then trade JP Crawford. We’re going to sign Josh Naylor to a free agent contract. We’re going to sign the power guy Kyle Schwarber to a free agent contract. We’ll then resign Jorge Palano. We’re actually going to extend Logan Gilbert, walk through maybe what an extension would look like for him. We’re then going to trade for a couple relievers. First off, righty Ryan Walker as a lockdown closer for the Giants. He had a down year this season. Might be some some opportunity there to move him. He’s actually from Arlington, Washington himself, which is awesome. We’re then going to trade for lefty Camboozer from the White Socks. If you watch the Boston Red Sox documentary that came out this last season, he’s in there. He was in the Red Sox the year prior. He he has an awesome story. He’s actually from F, Washington. He actually retired in 2017, became a carpenter in the Seattle area, and then eventually would get back into baseball and become this lefty that’s throwing 98 with some solid stuff. He’s under the radar guy that shouldn’t cost much. Now, before we get into the finances for the Mariners, let’s talk some finance. I’m actually a mortgage lender when I’m not making the sports videos. This YouTube channel is my side passion and hobby. But if you or someone you know is thinking of buying, selling or refinancing on the West Coast in the next year, Washington, Oregon, California, Idaho, or Arizona, make sure to reach out to myself, Connor Webb, or visit lenderconereweb.com. I’ll have a also a link in the description of this video to reach out and connect. Mortgage interest rates have been on the decline the past year. It could be a great time to refinance or to purchase a property. It’s my goal to assist as many sports fans and athletes get into the home of their dreams. Or if you’re looking to buy your second home in Arizona for spring training, hit me up. Let’s connect, have a conversation, and see if it makes sense. And with that, let’s get into a breakdown of the Mariners’s expected payroll for 2026. So, first off, their expectation on opening days that their total payroll will be around $166 million. As we know, the three free agents from their 2025 roster are Josh Naylor, AU Suarez, and then relief pitcher Caleb Ferguson. The Mariners only have five guaranteed contracts on the books, excluding the Jorge Blanco player option, which you see below. These five guaranteed contracts total $74.12 million for 2026 per spot track. Luis Castillo is due $24.15 million this next year. He is a free agent in 2029. There’s a 2028 vesting option. He signed a 5-year $108 million contract. The thing about Luis Castillo’s contract and why now might be a good time to trade him is that his no trade clause is actually up January 1st of of 2026. There is a $1 million trade assignment which we do factor in on the next slides. Juler Rodriguez, the face of the franchise, is locked down for basically ever. He’s due $20.185 million this next season. Ky Raleigh, signed to an extension during spring training this past year, is due $ 122.66 million this next year. He is locked down through the 2030 season. JP Crawford, as I mentioned, is due $12 million this next season and becomes a free agent in 27. And then Victor Robas was signed to an extension last year. He is due $5.125 million this next season and becomes an unrestricted free agent in 2028. Then there are three options. So the first off is Jorge Blano’s player option which became a player option for $6 million if he exceeded 450 played appearances which he did. It would become an $8 million player option if he were to exceed 550 played appearances. I’m not sure on the actual rules for this because he did not exceed 550 played appearances during the regular season. However, if you add in his postseason at bats, he did exceed 550 played appearances. Online, it’s showing his player option at $6 million. I would assume that it’s going up to 8 million, but even at the one-year $8 million player option, it’s expected that Jorge Blanco is going to decline that player option and hit free agency. Andres Munoz is under contract through the 2028 season. He is due a $7 million club option in 2026, which is an easy yes. There was also a club option for 2027 for $8 million and then for $10 million in 2028. All of those are easy yeses. The last option is Mitch Garver’s $12 million mutual option. I’m sure he will accept his option. The Mariners will say thanks but no thanks and he will hit free agency. The next part of the Mariners’s payroll for 2026 is the estimated arbitration. So what is arbitration? Well, essentially when you first enter the league, there’s three years to where it’s pre-arbitration. essentially your rookie contract where you’re getting paid the the league minimum salary. The next three years are your arbitration years and then once you’ve passed the six years of service time, then you become a free agent. Now, of course, there are exceptions to those rules, but these are the guys that are currently dealing with arbitration. And arbitration is basically the player comes to the table with a certain number of what they feel their value is. The team comes to the table with what they think the player is valued at. They could either come to an agreement on the arbitration number or they can go to an arbitration third-party committee. They argue their case and then the arbiter would actually determine the amount. The total arbitration numbers for the Mariners is at $47.7 million. Of course, with with any of the guys on this list, they could non-tender a contract. So the numbers here are the estimates via spot track of what the player likely will get in arbitration, but the Mariners can decide to just not offer a contract to any of these players, at which case at which point they would automatically enter free agency. The total arbitration estimate for all of these guys totals $47.7 million. Randy Rosarena is getting speculation of potentially the Mariners might shop him because he is the most expensive arbitration contract at $16 million. Some reports have him at $18 million. Logan Gilbert ballpark 11.5 million George Kirby 6 and a half Trenton Thornton 3 million Bryce Miller 2 and a half Matt Brash Luke Gabe Spire Taylor Saledo Jackson Coar and then Gregory Santos due to the $3 million price tag and Trenton Thornton is now 32 years old he obviously is coming off of that Achilles injury this last season. I think it makes sense for the Mariners to non-tender him a contract thus reducing this 47.7 million by 3 million. Then also I think the Mariners non-tender Taylor Saledo. So another $1.25 million comes off the books. So as you see at the top there 43.45 would be the total of estimated arbitration based on non-tendering those two guys. Then the Mariners have 19 players that are pre-arbitration which totals about $15.58 million. So when you look at all of this together, the five guaranteed contracts, the arbitration, the pre-arbitration, that comes to a total of $133.15 million. You then add in Andress Munoz’s $7 million uh club option, and that gets you to $140.15 million, which gives you about $26 million to work with in free agency. Now, the numbers obviously vary. None of the numbers are actually officially public, but there are websites that try to estimate exactly where the payroll is. So, now this brings us to our first trade scenario. Luis Castillo, as I mentioned, is due $24.15 million in 2026. He is due another 48.3 to $73.3 million in the remainder of his contract. As I mentioned, his no trade clause is up January 1st of 26. He is also due a million dollar trade assignment. If you were to trade Castillo, that frees up $23.15 million, which reduces the 2026 payroll for opening day down to $117 million. You then would have a rotation of Logan Gilbert, Brian Woo, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Logan Evans, and the rest of the the farm system for the rotation for opening day. I think it’s very realistic that Kate Anderson gets on the Treya Savage plan or trajectory to where he starts at high A Everett and then by the time the Mariners reach the World Series, he’s pitching it into the playoffs and in the World Series out of the Mariners rotation. Dangelo Sanja, I think, has the same type of potential to be in this type of role. He made it up to DA Arkansas this past year. So, we’ll have to see if the Mariners favor Derangelo or Anderson in in the rotation. I think Dangelo at the very least could come out of the bullpen in the playoffs. And then I think Ryan Sloan in 2027 makes his debut and he’s got the potential to be an ace. Now, I think it makes sense for Castillo to go to the Giants because the Giants do have a need in the starting rotation. They really just have Logan Webb and Robbie Ray as the veterans in the rotation for the next years. Robbie Ray is heading into the final year of his contract. Obviously, the Mariners traded Robbie to the Giants. The Giants are more willing to have a elevated payroll compared to the Mariners. And then also talking to the later Ryan Walker trade, I think it makes sense that Luis Castillo could be in talks to bring Ryan Walker to Seattle. And then like I mentioned at the beginning, this is looking at the present, but then also at the future. Like in your farm system, you have a potential number one ace and Ryan Sloan. You just drafted the best pitcher in college baseball from this last season and Kada Anderson with the number three overall pick that you looked out on. You got Dangelo Sanger, a complete anomaly switch pitcher that’s coming up and ready to go. The Mariners have the most top 100 prospects in baseball for good reason. And it’s time to see some of those guys come to fruition. That brings us to trade number two, which is trading the most tenured Mariner on the team currently, seven seasons. This is JP Crawford. He’s due $12 million in 2026. He has a five team no trade clause. I don’t know what teams those are. He also has a $1 million trade assignment. So, if you trade JP Crawford, that frees up $11 million, which reduces the 2026 payroll now to $106 million total. Adding in Colt Emerson’s league minimum, $820,000 gets you to 106.82 million for 2026. And this isn’t like a dig at JP Crawford. This is more so just like you have Colt Emerson, one of the best prospects in old baseball, which is a legitimate upgrade defensively at shortstop. and I think he’s going to be an above league average hitter immediately when he comes up. Colt Emerson won’t turn 21 until July 20th, 2026. And in my interactions with Colt, if there’s a guy that you’re calling up to the big leagues at 20 years old, I think this is the guy. He is a baseball guy, a true baller. His maturity is off the charts for his age. I think you bring him up opening day, let him ride the roller coaster of being a rookie in the major leagues. He’s going to be a huge plus at shortstop. Like like Ben Williamson is a huge plus at third base defensively, but the bat has to catch up. I think Colt Emerson is a pure hitter. His batting average should be approaching 300 every year and he’s going to lean into that power as he grows. I’m not scared at all to have Colt Emerson on the opening day roster at shortstop. Third base, you have Ben Williamson who has perennial gold glove upside. He’s 25 years old on a league minimum contract. Colt Emerson is going to be stellar at shortstop. 20 years old on a league minimum contract. Either Cole Young or Jorge Palano deciding on what the what the Mariners do this offseason. Cole Young could be on a league minimum contract as well. 22-year-old. He’s got some solid upside with the bat as well. You then hand Josh Naylor the freaking blank check at first base. You got the platinum dumper at catcher. This is going to be one of, if not the best infields in all of baseball next year and for years to come. They’ve got a ton of flexibility, a ton of upside. So, here are the top unrestricted free agents. And who might we be targeting and why? First off, at the top of the chart, you have Kyle Tucker. Would Kyle Tucker help the Mariners playing a right field for the next decade? Of course. Are the Mariners going to realistically pay Kyle Tucker $40 million for the next potentially 10 years? Absolutely not. I think with some of these big ticket names, you have to really go with a short-term contract. That’s why myself personally, I’m going to target Kyle Schwarber. Spot Track has his market value at about $25 million. I think he’ll get paid more than that in free agency. He’s 32 and a half currently. So, you want a short contract for that. He’s also a DH in a left field. The only real younger guys on this list are Kyle Tucker at the top. He’s right at 29 years old. Bob Bashett is going to be 28. Josh Naylor is 28. Then Luis Arise and Glabber Torres. I think the Mariners number one target obviously is Josh Naylor, but then we’re going to go Kyle Schwarber with what he can bring to the table. Something short short term. Whereas I think the rest of the guys above Kyle Schwarber are going to be looking for five plus year deals. So the first free agent signing, this is the obvious one, is signing first baseman Josh Naylor. I debated on four or five years, you know, 18 to $22 million. I think 5 years, $100 million make him a 9 figure player. If you hand Josh Naylor a $100 million contract, I think it’s very hard for him to say no, especially with the experience that he just had in Seattle. You look at his numbers in Seattle, he had a 137 weighted runs created plus in the regular season, 37% above league average. He then had had a 176 weighted runs created plus in the playoffs with the Mariners. He himself has said that he likes hitting in T-Mobile Park, which is a rarity. You never hear that from hitters. There’s his onfield production, and then there’s all of the behind the scenes in the dugout with his his baseball IQ elevating the rest of the roster. His age plays into this a big part. He won’t turn 29 until June of 2026. And I feel like this is a guy that’s being slept on for, you know, the potential value of what he brings and how much his expected return is. One argument for a lower number is that first baseman are treated differently compared to other positions, but I think you have the rest of the infield kind of slotted out. You you bring in Josh Neer, sign him to a 5-year deal that locks him down through 2030. And his consistency is also to be spoken about. Starting in 2022, he had a 118 weight runs created plus 127, 118, 128 in 2025 in total. And you look at his past three seasons. Another reason why I’m more comfortable signing him to a longer type deal than than another guy is that he is a contact over power type guy. In 2023, batted 308, 17 home runs. He had 10 stolen bases that year. In 2024, he more so is sold out for power, which you can see he had 31 home runs, but his batting average dipped to 243. And then in 2025, he ended up hitting 20 home runs, but his batting average jumped back up to 295. He’s just one of those pesky guys. I did not really care for him, to be honest, before he joined the Mariners. Just with the fire and the passion that he plays with, it’s almost a bit annoying when you’re on the other side of it. And then adding Josh Naylor’s $20 million gets you to 126.82 million for 2026. And this guarantees that Josh Naylor, Cal, Julio will all be in your in your lineup through the 2030 season. This 5-year deal would sign him through his prime, through his age 33 season. Next up, and this one’s a bit out of left field. Literally, he’s a left field/DH, but this is signing Kyle Schwarber to a three-year $84 million contract, which is $28 million a year. As we all know, the Josh Naylor contract will break the record for Jerry Dotto’s largest contract ever to a hitter, which is currently at just the 2-year $24 million contract that he signed Mitch Garver to. Naylor’s contract will blow it out of the water, but then Kyle Schwarber, I think, you know, will be the obviously the highest paid guy on the roster. Kyle Schwarber just brings a different element, a different factor. He is a guy that is scary power as a leadoff hitter. I mean, obviously, you know, his batting average is in the 240, 250 range consistently. But he’s a threat to hit 40 to 60 home runs a year. A left field bat in Seattle that you can say, “Hey, Kyle, there’s a cafe above the right field seats that’s called the Hit It Here Cafe. We want to put an additional million dollars per year into repairing that glass every season. If you could just keep peppering the the baseball right there. Dating back to 2022, he had a 129 weighted run plus, then a 118, a 134, a 152. This is a guy, as I mentioned, that has been a seasoned leadoff hitter for the Phillies. You don’t have to try to put Randy Rosarena back into the leadoff spot or to have Julio Rodriguez try to lead off. Just stick Kyle Schwarber up there. He’s going to hit nukes. his bat plays in any ballpark. And if you add Kyle Schwarber’s $28 million a year, that gets you to $154.82 million now for 2026. And this guarantees that Kyle Schwarber, Josh Naylor, Cal Julio will be in your lineup through 2028. And if you are considering shopping Randy Rosena in left field, this allows you to do so even more if you did want to put Kyle Schwarber out there in left field. I also think this gives you more of a solidified DH instead of, you know, having Cal at DH some days. Harry Ford catching or another random guy at DH. You could have Kyle Schwarber as your set DH. You could also put him in left field as I mentioned if you want Randy to be a DH or a day off. But then next up we’re going to be signing Jorge Palano to a 2-year $24 million contract. 12 million per year. Adding in Palano’s $12 million now gets you right to that 166.82 million for 2026. Jorge is fully healthy as we’ve seen. He could be your second baseman moving forward. So, here’s the same layout. You got Ben Williamson at third base. You got Cole Emerson at shortstop, Jorge Palano, then you got Josh Naylor, and then of course Cal Raleigh at catcher. And again, a lot of this thinking of who you’re going to be trading, who you’re going to be signing is thinking about the long term and who you have coming up in the system cuz you have Lazaro Montes who could be playing at in one of the corner outfield spots. He could be at first base or DH at some point later this year. A true power bat that you’re going to want to find a spot for. You also have Michael Aoyo who’s really a utility guy at this point. Really right now a second baseman utility infielder. I believe it was Ryan Dvish that said that he might be playing some left field. Both of these guys could be factors as early as next year. Next up, let’s talk through a potential extension of Logan Gilbert as we saw with Kelli during spring training this last year. Could be the same type of thing heading into next year with Logan Gilbert. He is the next guy that’s going to be approaching a free agency in the rotation. Of course, he is the really the first of this this wave of talent that has come through in in 2021. Drafted, developed, debuted with the Mariners. My potential offer for Logan Gilbert is a 5-year $108 million contract extension, which would be an average of 21.6 million per year. He currently has 2 years of arbitration left and would become a free agent after the 2027 season. So, you technically don’t have to extend him if you don’t want to right now. You could wait, but of course, the sooner the better. And part of it is to give him a little more reassurance upfront. Right now, give him a little more capital upfront. Right now, he’s estimated to receive about 11.5 million in 2026 through through arbitration. So, the extension would be structured with him receiving $15 million in 2026, which would be higher than that projected ARB number. Then, for his final year of potential arbitration, he would receive $18 million. And then in years 2028, 29, and 30, receiving $25 million for each of those se seasons. This would extend him through his age 33 season, essentially through his prime, you would have both Cow Raleigh and Logan Gilbert on the same team through at least the 2030 season. It’s not overcommitting money to him. It’s giving him some upfront. And then likely by the time 2028 to 2030 rolls around, he’s going to be somewhat underpaid compared to the the top-of-the-line pitchers that we expect him to be. I think this type of number would be realistic. Of course, with any extension, you got to have a little bit of a hometown discount type thing. Like, of course, when the Mariners brought in Robbie Ray, they gave him $115 million contract over 5 years. This would be less than that. But it’s the hometown discount. It’s the fact that he has two years of arbitration left on his contract. And then, of course, this would extend him through 2030. So, it would guarantee that Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Miller, etc. would be all in the rotation through at least the 2028 season. and then you trickle in the the Ryan Sloan, the Kate Anderson, Gerangelo Sanchos into the rotation. This is going to be one of the best rotations in baseball for the foreseeable future. Now, a bit of an off the radar trade that you might not have thought about is trading for relief pitcher from the Giants, Ryan Walker. Potentially part of the Luis Castillo deal. That’s that’s kind of my thought process. As far as payroll is concerned, Brian Walker is due about $2 and a half million dollars in arbitration this year, which would equal Trenton Thornton’s estimate, which we have already non-tendered Trent Thornton. So, Ryan Walker would step in and take his $2.5 million. And the reason why there might be an opportunity right now for Ryan Walker is that he had a down season. He was the Giants closer for the a good amount of last year. He did get pulled out of that role for an amount of time because he was underperforming in 2024. He worked into being their closer. I mean, you look at 2024, he had a 1.91 ERA and a sub one whip. This past year, he had a 4.11 ERA and a 1.27 whip. But go watch some film of Ryan Walker. I’m not going to play it here, but he’s got this crazy crossbody delivery. He’s got like 96 to 98 with sink. He’s got a wipe out slider. As you can see from his pitch usage, he throws the sinker 62% of the time, the slider 38. But the Mariners need one more high leverage back end of the bullpin type guy to add to the the Muno Spire brash arsenal. And Ryan Walker I think is that guy. And it might just be a cherry on top that he is a Washington State Coug like myself. That’s myself and Dylan. Shout out Dylan on the right side with uh interviewing Ryan Walker this past spring training talking through his story. Again, he’s from Arlington, Washington. I think that would be a huge move for the Mariners. And Ryan Walker is also a 29-year-old with a couple more years of arbitration. Then talking about the other reliever, as I mentioned, this is Cam Boozer from the White Socks. Currently, he was on the Red Sox the year before. With the Red Sox, he had a 3.38 RA over 43 games, a 1.34 whip. His numbers are not impressive with the White Socks, a 5.52 RA, a 1.52 whip. Obviously, there’s some stuff to work on. Cam is a 33-year-old leftyear reliever. Again, his production isn’t super high up there, so his cost shouldn’t be that high as far as trade value is concerned. They might trade him for cash considerations, but he’s a lefty, which you absolutely need to add a lefty in the bullpen. His fast ball gets up to 98.99. He’s got a few other pitches as well, and this is just a lowcost, high upside type of guy type of move that I think the Mariners need to make this off season. Now, getting to the fun part. Let’s say that the Mariners go out and do exactly what I said to do. This is their 2026 opening day lineup with all of these guys involved. You got Kyle Schwarber leading it off a lefty 152 weighted run is created plus in 2025. Then you got Kyle Raleigh batting second as a switch hitter. You got Julio Rodriguez in the three hole, Josh Naylor four, Jorge Blanco five. You got Randy Russain at down at the six spot. Ferson batting seven, Ben Williamson eight, Victor Robles nine. Then on the bench you have Cole Young, Harry Ford, Luke, Miles Master Bony to start. You got Leo Reevos that you can bring up at any time. At some point potentially we see Lazaro Montes, Michael Royo, some of these other guys come up. And I’m especially okay with starting these rookies or these guys with little amounts of experience on opening day because if you build out the top two/3s of your roster like I did here, you can afford a little bit of a learning curve in the lower third of the order. Victor Robas, I think, will be an above average league average hitter. You also have Dominic Kzone there that that I didn’t mention. But then depending on how things are going later on in the year, you can always add at the deadline to the holes that you need to fill. As far as the Mariners rotation at this point, since you’ve traded Luis Castillo away, you now have Logan Gilbert who I think gets another opening day start. Brian Woo, I think jumps up to number two. You got George Kirby three, Bryce Miller, and then I think Logan Evans is going to be the the number five starter to start the year. I think Kada Anderson at some point is going to enter into the rotation. Then I also think Derangelo should be out of the bullpin at some point by the end of the year. Then with the trades for Ryan Walker and Camboozer, you have Andres Munoz as your closer. You got Ryan Walker as one of your setup guys. You got Gabe Spire as the the premier lefty. You got Edward Bazardo right there. You got Cam Boozer as another lefty. You also have Carlos Vargas, Matt Brash, and various other guys. So that sums up my thoughts, my game plan for this offseason for what the Mariners should do. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below. I’m sure you have an opinion for for better or worse on on the moves that I projected. And if you have a guy that you think the Mariners should pursue, let us know in the comments below. Make sure to like and subscribe to the Couch GM for more content like this. Have a great off seasonason and I’ll see you in the next

Previewing the Mariners offseason plans and how they can retool to win in 2026 and beyond.

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0:00- Intro
1:38- 2025 offensive recap
8:26- 2025 rotation recap
11:52- 2025 bullpen recap
14:28- Offseason plan
17:26- Mariners payroll breakdown
22:30- Trading Luis Castillo
24:36- Trading J.P. Crawford/ Colt Emerson opportunity
26:34- Free agents
27:35- Signing Josh Naylor
29:54- Signing Kyle Schwarber
31:55- Signing Jorge Polanco
32:55- Logan Gilbert Extension
35:04- Trading for Ryan Walker
36:37- Trading for Cam Booser
37:23- 2026 Opening day lineup