Michael Kesselring returns for the Buffalo Sabres

Michael Kesselring returns for the Buffalo Sabres

Sabres host the Blue Jackets, a team that is right there in the standings with Buffalo and might be all season. We’ll preview the matchup and I got my bet of the night coming your way as we keep rolling on that front coming up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. [Music] You’re Locked on Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network. your team every day. What is up everybody and welcome in to this Tuesday edition of the Locked On Sabers podcast. You everydayers, thanks for making us your first listen every day. We’re free and available wherever you listen to your podcast. Watch the show on YouTube. Hit the like and subscribe button if you do. You could also be a part of our lockedown sabers text club, starting goalies there, lineup news, waiverss, trades. If we ever get any stuff during the game, of course, as well, you could hit us up. If you’re not already a texter, you could sign up by going to joinsubex.com/lockedonavers. Today’s episode is presented by FanDuel. Download the FanDuel app right now. Visit fanuel.com and win $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. Sneaky Joe Deiosi here on a game day. We are previewing tonight’s matchup with the Columbus Blue Jackets. It is the Frozen Frenzy in the NHL. So, we have staggered starts, games that start from 6:00 all the way to 11:00. So, if you are a giant hockey fan like I am and you aren’t as into the World Series and you don’t have football tonight and you don’t get into basketball until playoff time, well, you have got hockey from 6:00 today until I mean that 11:00 game is probably not going to end until 1:30 in the morning. So, if you really wanted it, you could have 7 and 1 half hours of hockey at least tonight. So, lot of hockey coming your way. That is the reason for the 6:45 start time instead of a typical 7 or 7:30 for the Sabres and the Blue Jackets. We’ll get to tonight’s lineups. We’ll get to my bet of the night. 71-1 on the season. And I am very confident in my bet again tonight. So, we’ll try to keep that train rolling. But we got to start with the biggest news of the day. And that is that we have a debut tonight for the Buffalo Sabres. and an exciting one and one that I think will make a pretty big dent in the lineup going forward. Not that the Savers have already been struggling defensively, but Michael Kessler I think is going to help them even more. Kessle Ring is going into the lineup tonight. He is ready to return. He is scheduled to play against the Blue Jackets after getting a couple of practices in under his belt. Of course, he did play some preseason games, so we got a little bit to see out of him then. He was a part of training camp, then he got hurt, missed the first nine games of the regular season, and now goes into the lineup. Now, we don’t really know where he goes into the lineup because practice on Monday, he was skating as one of the extra defenseman with Jacob Bryson, who is not going to play tonight. He goes into the top six. And this morning, we had an optional skate. So, we probably will not know exactly who he will play with until we get to warm-ups, which isn’t for, you know, 4 hours now. Well, from the time of recording, 4 hours. Um, right before it, probably 6:00. We’ll have a good idea. The idea that he would play with Owen Power is, I still think going to happen. His long-term partner, I think, is most likely going to be Owen Power, but for tonight, my guess is that is not going to be what happens. Just reading the tea leaves on what we saw yesterday at practice. Matias Samson was with Rasmus Dalene. I expect that to stay the same. Samuelson has earned that opportunity right now. I wouldn’t stick with it forever if it goes poorly. But breaking up Bo Byum and Rasmus Dalene I think has needed to happen. They have not started the season well together and I think splitting those two up is warranted. Owen Power was with Connor Timonss and those two have played a little bit together in the last couple of games while Byum was skating with Zack Mets on what would be your perceived third pair. So when you look at those three pairings, you it’s like my best guess, what I would say for this game that you are most likely going to find is that Mets is the guy that is going to come out. So, for the time being, I’m going to play it as though Michael Kessler is going to be on a pair with Bo Byum today. And that is I guess your third pair because Dene would naturally be on your first pair playing the most minutes. Power would naturally be the next highest defenseman in time on ice. So, Byum and Kessle Ring, while that might sound like a top four pair, I think it probably is the Savers third pair for tonight’s game. Uh, let Kessle get his feet under him, not play him too many minutes. probably around 16 17 18 minutes in of action tonight is warranted and I think probably most likely for Kessleing off of this injury and Bo Byron’s been struggling. So you get him with a guy that while he’s playing his first game is a solid defenseman that they’re hoping could be a top four guy. I’m very excited to see Karine. I think the Josh Don story over the past couple of weeks, how he has gone from a nice player in Utah who was very good defensively and there was this hope fingers crossed that there was more offensively for Josh Stones. So far is looking good like that is happening. It is coming to fruition. And I think a very similar question can be asked about Michael Kessering, guy who was playing more of a depth role for Utah, only averaging, you know, 17 minutes a night just about during his Utah career. Utah hockey club, they weren’t the mammoth by when he was there. Um, you look at his career, he’s averaged exactly 1652 of ice time in his NHL career. That is about a third pairing defenseman. He has 53 points in 156 games. He has scored a little bit in his NHL career, seven goals last year. The hope for me would be he’s already proven he’s a good defender. He’s a good defender. He’s not the most physical guy in the world, but he is big. He can skate really well. But now I’ve got this wonder about could he be more offensively? He’s got this big cannon of a shot that is, I think, something they could really use on maybe a second power play unit or really just at five on five wiring 100 mile per hour slap shots from the point. Listen, the Sabres don’t have a lot of that. I mean, they have a couple. Dene has developed a great shot over the years and it’s a hard one. I think Bo Byum’s got a nice shot. Other than that, like Owen Power still is not shooting the puck all that hard. Matias Samson, I know, I know he did just score two goals. Um, but for the most part, not a guy who in his NHL career you’ve ever had to worry about his shot. And then beyond that, you are at who? You’re at Connor Timonss. I think Tims actually has a decent shot. Um, a little bit better, but Kessle Ring is going to come right in and have the hardest shot on the blue line. So, more minutes, more shooting opportunities, more offensive zone time. you would hope not being on a third pair. Is there a double-digit goal scorer in there from the blue line? Because I think that that potential exists in Michael Kering. I don’t know if he’ll ever be the big playmaker, but let’s get a look at him. We get a first taste of Castle Ring as a player tonight and that’s exciting because really he was the Sabres biggest offseason acquisition. No, I don’t think he was worth JJ Purka. Uh, but that trade with Josh Don, if he keeps doing what he’s doing and Castle Ring is just a tad better than he was in Utah while playing 20 minutes a night instead of 1652, then that’s how that trade ends up looking really, really strong for the Buffalo Sabres. Now, as to what Kessle brings to the team right now, the team is actually doing well in their own end and on the blue line, the things that Kessler is supposed to help them with. So, I guess, let me put it this way, a strength of the Sabres, I would hope becomes a dominant strength of the Buffalo Sabres. They are right now a good defensive team. They’re they’re even a very good defensive team. Are they one of the best defensive teams in the National Hockey League? Uh, probably not. You want to go, how do you want to do it? You want to go by expected goals on this front? The Sabres in terms of expected goals allowed. So the the amount of goals you’re supposed to allow, the Sabres are the 12th best team in the NHL by that number, 12th best defensive team in the NHL. Good. That’s a good defensive team. Uh, can Kessler get them in the top 10? Can he get them in the top five if he can really play for them? We’ll see. But it’s hard to think they’ll get worse on their back end if if they’ve been able to play this way, play a tough brand of hockey, a team that’s tough to score on with Zack Mets in the lineup and Jacob Bryson in the lineup. I mean, to throw Kessle Ring in the mix, obviously my hopes are pretty high for him. He’ll be wearing number eight, it’s a good defensive number. Number eight, other than Ovetchkin, I usually think of that more of as a defenseman number. So, uh, Byum is the most likely pairing. Stay tuned. Locked on Sabres on our text club. If you want it immediately, if you want it on Twitter, lockdown sabers, stay tuned a little bit later on. We’ll figure out who he is playing with tonight. Tonight against the Blue Jackets. Really quick, we’ll go through the rest of the Sabres lineup. And then what does Columbus have to offer? This is a tricky little team. I do think that they have the reputation as being a bad hockey team, and I don’t think they’re great, but I don’t think they’re that far off from what the Sabres are supposed to be and what the Sabres are this year so far. That’s coming up here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of the Lockdown Savers podcast is presented by Monarch Money. Let’s be honest, most of us cannot even name where all our financial accounts are, what they’re worth between 401ks, savings, and investments. It is easy to lose track, and that can mean leaving money on the table. That’s why I started using Monarch. All-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one clean, easy to use interface on your laptop or on your phone. 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And you know, you might pick up on some of the clues as to what got me to my bet tonight when I’m talking about the Blue Jackets because this team is a pretty good defensive team and the Sabres are a pretty good defensive team. So, I wonder how many goals we really get tonight. More on that though in a little bit. The Sabres lineup for tonight is uh as expected. The forward lines are entirely the same. So, we don’t even really need to go through those. And we went through the defense pairings already. I guess the number one thing to point to in tonight’s lineup is the goalender. Alex Lion back between the pipes. I have a lot more confidence right now in Lion than of course I do Yukapeka Lukan in and you feel more solid about him than you would Ellis just because he’s played more games than Ellis at this point. Alex Lion I would like to see get a majority of these starts coming up. Glad to see he’s back in the lineup tonight against the Blue Jackets. Now, when we get to Columbus, what we see is a team that I actually think is a pretty wellbalanced group that might be lacking for some star power. And that is probably going to prevent them from being one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference or even being having it be possible that they could be one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference. their group. I mean, some names to know, Dimmitri Baronov, newer player, 23 goals last year, so he’s not like a rookie. Fresh on the scenes. Uh, mid-round pick of the Blue Jackets a couple of years ago. He is their leading goal scorer on the year so far with five goals and eight points. Um, nine points, excuse me. You should expect him on their top line. Kill Mitch Marenko has got a really nice shot. It’s a very dynamic player. Um, he plays the most for them in terms of their forward group, so you’re going to see a lot of him. He’s got five goals on the year as well, but he’s down at eight points. Those are your top offensive talents. Adam Fantilly, who I think is still growing a little bit as a player, but he is going to be their number one center of the future. He’s not necessarily playing in that role right now. They kind of have two top lines, two second lines, however you want to put it. Van Tilly with Boon Jenner and Kent Johnson is got a lot of potential as a line. Not Jenner is an older guy, but Vantillian Johnson. So, he’s another guy to watch as well. They have added a couple of veterans this offseason. They added Charlie Coyle, third line center. Zack Aston Ree on the fourth line. Um, of course they go back, you find Ivan Prov. That was a couple years ago now. And at the very top of their lineup is Zack Winsky. I mean, lack of star power. Winsky is their best player. He is a Norris caliber defenseman. He is a guy that could lead them in points. He’s not doing it right now, but he’s capable of that. He’s the guy to watch. Um, that’s the best player on the Blue Jackets for me for sure. When you look at them as a team overall though and look at these balanced lines, you look at their blue line and the goalending which we’ll get to. Jet Greavves is going to start tonight against the Sabres and he’s put up some good numbers as has Elvis Mer Lickens this year. They’ve gotten good goalending from both guys. Part of that is they’re a good defensive team. They want to play like how the Sabres want to play. They want to be tough. They want to be a tough team to play against. They want to be sound in their own end. They want to be responsible. and they want to be a team that can play a lot of close hockey games and hopefully comes out on the right side of enough one-score games that they find their way to making the playoffs. That is the Blue Jackets formula and it can work that way. Sometimes the lack of star power can can cause you to not make it, but they do the things that they want to do very well. For the Blue Jackets, all the numbers point to they’re very good at limiting chances. When you look at the amount of shot attempts they’ve allowed on the season, they have allowed the sixth fewest shot attempts in the league at five on five so far this season. They have allowed the eighth fewest shots in general. They have allowed the fewest goals at five on five. 11 goals in eight games at five on five allowed. Again, nobody’s allowed fewer in the National Hockey League so far this season. How many shot attempts have the Blue Jackets allowed? the third fewest in the NHL this season. Uh scoring chances, excuse me. They’ve allowed the third fewest scoring chances in the NHL this season. And finally, if I didn’t mention it already, expected goals at five on five. The Blue Jackets are ninth, ninth best. So, they are a top 10 defensive unit at even strength in every single metric. What is interesting though about Columbus is it’s not impossible to score on them. They might all those numbers might make it sound like well they are really stout. They are locked down like you better expect a two to1 hockey game. I think that’s the most likely outcome but there is one path to getting a lot of goals. While all they might be really good at five on five, amazingly they can be so good at even strength and be dead last in the NHL in the penalty kill 60.7%. That is the worst penalty kill in the National Hockey League. You have a battle tonight of the best penalty kill in the league, the Buffalo Sabres, who have killed off 93.9% of their power plays or their penalty kills to Columbus who’s only killed off 60.7. You have a 33% difference between these two hockey teams. They are getable. I can’t tell you why they are getable, but the results so far speak for themselves. The Sabres have been a better power play as of late. So, tonight could be one of those nights where the Sabres don’t even end up scoring a five on five, but they get two or three power play goals and that’s their path to victory. Um, it’s hard to do it that way. probably going to get one at even strength somewhere along the way. But the bad bad penalty kill for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Jet Greavves starting goal as I mentioned earlier and he’s a 9003 save percentage on the season. Three quality starts so far in four games. Um you got a pretty good goalender that you’re going up against tonight. Eight points for Columbus. All of these early on games are four-point hockey games. You don’t know who you’re going to be competing with. It’s why I got so mad that the Sabres gave two points to Toronto over the weekend. How they could have they could have gone they could have been up on Toronto. They could have had four points over the weekend and Toronto zero and ended up being 3 to2. That’s why I got so mad about that. I don’t know who the Sabres going to be competing with down the stretch. Columbus could very likely be one of these teams. I think of them, I probably think Tampa’s more likely, who’s below them in the standings. I think the Rangers are more likely. I even think Toronto is more likely. But it is possible that it’s Columbus that they are one of the teams that you are fighting with down to the very end. So in a game like this, get an advantage. Go up to 11 points, keep them down at eight. Don’t let them get to overtime. Uh that obviously is the best result for tonight’s game. I am already thinking about their opponents and what they get in these hockey games, not making them three-point hockey games. When we come back, along the same lines of both these teams being pretty good defensively, got some of the odds. Got my bet of the night coming your way when we return here. for the Lockdown Savers podcast. When we get to my bet of the night, all odds courtesy of FanDuel sports book. That’s where I’ll be making my bet. I love using FanDuel. I like using it to track games. I when I make a bet, it pops up in my lock screen and on my phone and I don’t even have to open my f I mean just turn hit the power button on my phone and it pops right up with exactly what I’m going to be uh wanting to see from the game, what the score is, how my bet is doing. Um, FanDuel is a great way to track all of these games and it’s hockey, it’s football, basketball is back, the World Series as well. There’s no better place to get on in the action than FanDuel. Uh, even if you miss the start of the game, you want to ride the hot hand. FanDuel’s live bets on everything from who will score next to, you know, a little third period comeback. Plus, combine your live bets. Same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. Keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com. Sign up today. Again, if you’re a new customer, place a $5 bet. If you win it, $300 in bonus bets. Play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. All right, speaking of FanDuel, let’s get to it’s better than Nighttime. It’s my favorite time of the show. And yes, that is most likely because I’ve been winning as of late. Uh so that’s going to make it a little bit more fun, no doubt. Uh so let’s get to it. The Sabres in this game, they are it the odds are actually moving very quickly in this game. Maybe a little bit of money just came in on the Buffalo Sabres because when uh we began the show here, it was minus 110 for the Sabres, minus 110 for the Blue Jackets. As I sit here this very second, and uh you could be listening to this a different time, maybe it’s moved. – 115 for the Sabres, – 104 for Columbus. So the Sabres a very slight favorite in this game. Uh the overunder in this game is 6 and a half goals, -110 on the over, minus 110 on the under. I am 71 and1 on the year, plus 13.4 units. So if you’d start with $10, you’d be 134. I am going with under 6 and a half goals for this game. I think considering I’ve got two goalies that I like. Alex Lion on the Buffalo side, Jet Greavves on the Columbus side. I’ve got two teams that are very good defensively. What Columbus may be a little bit better than Buffalo, but the Sabres might make up for that in their very strong penalty kill. And I got a total that’s up at 6 and a half instead of five and a half. I like the Sabres and the Blue Jackets to score under six and a half goals in this game. That’s my bet of the night. Now, interesting. I’m looking at some of these anytime goal bats. I’m not going to make one of those one of my bets of the night. I’ve got a little bit of advice, though. There’s one one way I’m thinking. I’m looking at anytime goal scorer odds right now. I simply do not understand why the Buffalo Sabres are or why Zack Benson, I should say, is one of the favorites for the Sabres to score a goal. Plus 280. He has the fourth best odds only behind Alex Tuck, Josh Don who has the second best odds and then Tae Thompson. I don’t understand why Zack Benson is number one. I love Zack Benson. I love the player. He’s going to get a lot of assists. He has not scored a goal in six games. Why are his odds going up? I guess it could be the opportunities that he’s getting. I guess it could be the expected goals, but I just am not going to ever I would never bet at plus 280 a guy that has a shot as poor as he currently does. So, love the player, not a criticism of him, just don’t think his odds should be at plus 280. I don’t think his odds should be better than Ryan Mloud who’s at plus 360. I don’t think his odds should be better than Jack Quinn at plus 380. Um, who else? I mean, Dalene plus 390. Oh, I missed the obvious one. Yuri Koulik. Yuri Koulik plus 330. He’s on the same line. He gets power play opportunities. He’s got a far better shot. I would go Koulique 10 times before I would bet Benson, especially when I can get Koolik at plus 330. While Benson, you got to you got to take a little bit of a hit and get him at plus 280. Just doesn’t make any sense to me. It’s a very, very weird line. Um, some other things I was looking at, shots on goal bets for this game. Tage Thompson um to get three plus shots on goal is minus 330. Listen, those Tage shot bets, they’re too juiced up. They’re fun because he gets a lot of them. I don’t necessarily love them because they’re just you’re not really getting much of a payoff. I mean, you four plus shots, you’re still not even getting even money. It’s minus 128 on the odds. If you are looking at anybody on the Columbus side of things, maybe you’re looking at a an emotional hedge of some sort. Um, I mean, right now, I think Veronov is probably the answer. He’s been scoring and he’s got better odds than Marenko. Marenko plus 195 plus 130 for Veronov. I want to bet the number there more than I want to bet the player. Um otherwise I probably wouldn’t go for anything on the Columbus side of things. So Sabres and Blue Jackets tonight, get those two points. Don’t let Columbus get two points and uh let’s get this thing back to a playoff spot for the Buffalo Sabres. I mean, every team is playing tonight, so it’s possible the Sabres are in a playoff spot by tomorrow, but it’s also possible they win and they’re not. So we’ll have to see what the night brings us. That will do it for us today here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. If you want more hockey talk, all the games tonight, check out locked on fantasy hockey with Steel and Flip. They got your preview and then of course locked on NHL game night. That’s available wherever you get your podcast and on YouTube as well. We’ll talk to you tomorrow after Sabres and Blue Jackets here on the Lockdown Savers podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

The Buffalo Sabres are getting back their biggest acquisition of the offseason with Michael Kesselring making his debut after missing nine games with an injury. Sneaky Joe talks what to expect from maybe playing with Bowen Byram, to Kesselring’s slapshot, to his defensive ability. Plus, Alex Lyon is going back in as the team’s starting goaltender.

Columbus, meanwhile, is one of the top defensive teams in the league this year so far, but not when the other team goes to the powerplay. Why the Sabres will need the man-advantage to step up for them in this game.

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