Cardinals vs Cowboys Monday Night Football Picks | FREE NFL Bets, Predictions, and Player Props!

Cardinals vs Cowboys Monday Night Football Picks | FREE NFL Bets, Predictions, and Player Props!

Before we dive into today’s Monday Night Football breakdown, I wanted to talk to you about the Guy Boston Sports NFL dashboard. You will see a ton of this being used in today’s video. So, I wanted to let you know where you could access it yourself. Guybossonports.com. Head over to the members area. Go to the NFL dashboard. You get each and every game, a bunch of key statistics, all color-coded to help you optimize your research process and make your time more efficient. from quarterback data to pressure and coverage data to offensive running schemes, right? Overall offensive data both for the season, whether you’re home or away or in your last three games. Defensive data, we even have the matchup analyzer to help you know who is starting via injuries and who’s out in terms of skill positions. But we also have the matchup, like I said, analyzer. Very easy, fairly easy, fairly tough to help you kind of go on your way along with DVOA rankings and DVA plus fantasy adjusted points verse position. Really cool stuff, guys. This is some powerful stuff. I could say that. I’ve built it myself. We also have launched the NBA dashboard that is live on the site right now as well. So, head over to guybosawsonports.com. Head to the members area, guys. Sign up today. I promise you this thing will help you out. You just got to give it some time. There’s so much data pumped in and we work really hard on it. Guybosports.com. All right, YouTube. How you doing? Welcome back to the channel. I tell you guys, I’m a dummy all the time. They don’t suck. They’ve just been sucking. get them down to minus three for more juice than Jose can take in his prime. Tell me you’re new without telling me you’re new. So don’t go jumping down my throat in the comments. Right. If you want to fade me or if you do want to ride me, it still leaves a bad taste in my mouth. Right. And remember, more chins, more wins. All right, YouTube. How you doing? Welcome back to the channel. It is time for Monday Night Football week number nine. We got the Dallas Cowboys taking on the Arizona Cardinals. In today’s video, I’m going to dive into this game. I’ll give you my prediction on the side. I’ll give you my prediction on the total. We’ll talk about any other plays like player props that we like within the game as well. But as always, guys, make sure to keep an eye down on the pinned comment of this video. That’s where you’ll find all of my final plays. So, I’m actually rolling with myself if that does interest you. It’s absolutely free down in the pinned comment. I do think that this is going to be a little bit better of a game than people may think. Right. Right now we have the Dallas Cowboys minus three. Total sitting at 53 and a half. Make sure to hit that like button, hit that subscribe button. I want to know what you guys are rolling with and your favorite plays on this game down in the comments. Let me know there. But let’s dive into this one. Dallas coming off of a pretty bad loss right against that Denver squad. They now walk into this game 34 and one. The one was that tie against the Packers. But on the flip side, I mean, we can’t say too too much better about this Cardinals team. They are coming off of a buy, so that might be nice, right? But they now have five losses in a row and they just got beat by Green Bay in their last game. So, not exactly the best situation in terms of the the way that they’re trending for this Cardinal squad. And honestly, things don’t look too up for them, especially from an injury report perspective. Now, Kyler Murray is listed as questionable, but the head coach already said Brassette is going to be starting the Monday Night Football game. I don’t know if that’s like cryptic and Kyler Murray is eligible and able to play, but they’re not going to start him. We’ll keep an eye on that, but as of right now, Jacobe Brassette, yes, the head coach has already said will be starting this game. Will Johnson, cornerback, also questionable. So, a couple things to keep an eye on injury-wise for the Cardinals, but again, neither one of which are that great of a situation, right? Dallas, they say you have a good injury situation. Looks like we have Cooper BB coming back to the lineup here now. Both strong safeties, Clark and Wilson listed as out. Um, free safety Thomas questionable. So, yeah, this is a Dallas team that the injury uh side on on the defense has been really really banged up and a bunch of guys hurt. Maybe that’s why the defense has been so poor. Maybe that’s just kind of the defense we’re dealt. I’m not sure, right? We’ll talk about that in a little bit here. But let’s go ahead and dive into the Dallas offense first and foremost against Arizona. So, this is an Arizona team that plays a lot of zone compared to man, right? And we can even see that in the Guy Boston NFL dashboard that I’ve already talked to you guys about right here. Arizona is going to play a decent amount of zone. Now, Dak Prescott kind of a mixed bag when it comes to zone verse man, right? Yards per attempt go down. His yards in general go down, completion percentage goes up, and interception rate goes down. So, I do think that those are two decent pieces to look at there because obviously, you know, him being able to complete the ball and move the down uh the ball down the field, very, very important. Him not turning it over and doing some dumb throws is very, very important. So, I do think that it helps Dak that this team plays a lot of zone. And honestly, the last two games he’s played, Washington and that Denver team, they they both play a lot of man. The last time we saw Dak really go up against a zone heavy team, it wasn’t a loss against the Panthers, but he played pretty well. 261, he had three Tuddies on 25 of 34 passing, right? So, though they lost that game, Dak Prescott, last time you saw a team kind of with a comparable defense, he actually did pretty well. Now, this is also a Cardinals team that is not that great at drumming up any sort of pressure. 30th in pressure rate, 31st in blitz rate, 28th in adjusted sack rate, third cleanest pocket allowed, 25th in quarterback hit rate, third fewest in scramble, so they’re not even really making the quarterback have to get out there and do anything. And then 21st, so what is that? Uh 10th worst, 11th worst in checkdown rate. So quarterbacks are able to sit back there, go through option A, option B, read one, read two, and find something against this Arizona team with passing yards per game. 25th, right, allowing 23 20 234.9 in terms of passing yards per game. So not exactly the best. Um, what I will say though is I kind of like them when the field gets shorter in terms of them defending the end zone and everything like that, but that’s such a fraction I feel like of the puzzle here that Yeah, this is still not a very good pass defense, right? And the pressure alone, think about it, with guys like Sidi, with guys like George Pickkins, Dak Prescott may be able to sit back there behind an offensive line that’s potentially getting healthier and go through those two reads and just drum up so much success there. So, let’s actually talk about a couple player props then cuz I do think that these are relevant to bring up. So, we’ll just bring it up now instead of the after uh the the video here. CD Lamb over 24 and a half, longest reception, as well as George Pickkins over 23 and a half. With the fact that we’re gonna have a lack thereof of pressure on the Arizona side of things, I really like Dak Prescott to be able to have some big plays here. And if he’s going to have a big play, odds are literally that it’s going to go to George Pickkins or to CD Lamb. I like both of them to have like a 25 plus yard catch here. So yeah, 23 and a half that’d be good enough for Pickkins there. 24 and a half for Cidi. I also don’t mind either of these guys for a touchdown. I wish we were getting some better prices here, but plus 105. CD only has the one touchdown on the season, but obviously has a lot of injuries. George Pickkins, I think it’s going to be like around plus 140, plus 135. You could see he actually had a really good stretch when CD was out, but the last couple games, not so much there. So, those are two player props that I would consider kind of related to the passing game of the Dallas side of things. But, they’re not only going to pass the ball, right? They have a running back, they have a run game. Maybe it’s not the best, but let’s dive into that a little bit because I do think there’s a few things that are certainly worth noting there. So, in terms of this run game, it is really interesting how this Dallas team is operated because they have been such a pass heavy team, like by far and away number one in terms of passing percentage plays and all that, right? But this is a team that’s top 10 in yards per carry in terms of running the ball. They’re sixth in EPA per attempt, eighth in success rate, and first in yards after contact. Like that’s weird, right? Because you don’t think of this Dallas team as a good running team at all. But maybe it’s because it’s so suppressed by how good Dak has been and the offense and the electricity when they pass the ball. But yeah, just like keep that in mind that this actually is a team that efficiency wise not exactly the worst, right? I mean, I talked about EPA per attempt, success rate after contact, yards per carry, the volume may not be there, but the quality you could almost argue is. Now, the eye test, that doesn’t pass it whatsoever. We’re talking advanced numbers here. the eye test. Yeah, you could probably be like, I don’t know about this run, Dean. Now, how about the Arizona run defense? I don’t think that this is all that great of a defense, even just overall. I mean, you could see here defensively, I guess, 12th in yards per game, fourth in rushing yards per carry, but there’s been a few spots this season in which guys have just absolutely torched them, right? But overall, yeah, eighth in EPA per attempt, 14th in yards per attempt, 14th in DVOA, 18th in success rate, fewest yards before contact. That’s pretty interesting. Um, but fourth most yards after contact. And we just talked about how Dallas actually has the number one run game in terms of yards after contact. And that also explains why Arizona has the eighth highest expo explosive run rate against. But good news for Arizona is that Dallas is like I think bottom three in terms of explosive run rate offensively. So overall, yeah, it looks like this Dallas team may be able to run on Arizona. But, and it’s a big butt, how does Dallas like to run it? Dallas likes to run the inside zone. Now, they will mix it up. You can even see via the dashboard. It’s not like over here, which we’ll talk about in a little bit, where there’s like an alarming swing in terms of a scheme, but the inside zone, yes, looks like that’s Dallas’s preferred run choice. And yeah, you guessed it right. Arizona not exactly the best run defense like we’ve talked about, but they actually get really good against the inside zone. Some more numbers here. Ready? Against the inside zone, seventh best yards per carry. Um, excuse me, not seventh best. What do we just have? Uh, sixth best yards per carry. third best EPA per attempt, fifth best in the DVOA department, middle of the pack from a success rate, but fewest yards before contact, eighth most yards after contact. Again, that’s a little bit better than what we saw them overall, but still not the best. And then same thing with explosive drops down to 11th. A little bit better than what we saw, but all things point towards Arizona, at least against this specific run scheme, actually looking pretty damn good, which is kind of crazy. So overall from a Dallas perspective offensively I do think that the Daks in a good spot I think CD Lamb George Pickins they can do it. I don’t know how much help this Dallas team will get from the run game. The only problem with that if you want to take that in kind of like a player prop side of things like Gvante Williams I don’t mind the idea of looking at his unders right. I really don’t. But what if Dallas does go up? They do have you know the more talented offense. What if they go up early and they’re running the ball for the rest of the game? That’s kind of like out of the schematics realm. That’s just more of like a game script play now. Well, yeah, you could look at his under 49 and a half. But what if he has way more volume than normal? So, I don’t think the run game will be that important to Dallas, but and it’s a big butt. There is a chance that obviously they’re winning in this game. They’re favored. They’re at home. It’s prime time. Jerry’s World. We could see some more volume out of that run game, but I’m not all that much of a buyer in general. But let’s go ahead and talk about the Arizona offense side of things. Before we do that, guys, I do want to talk to you about underdog. If you have not tried underdog yet, now is the time to do so. Right now, you got two amazing deals going on on either side of me. First and foremost, Dak Prescott. They give you a gimme pick, right? 0. Obviously, he’s going to get that one passing or rushing yard, but I honestly think that this deal right here on the right side of your screen, play $5, get $100, is probably the best deal out there right now. Now again, you turn $5 immediately into 100. Now, how do you do that? Might you might ask? You use the link down in the description and you use code Guy Boss. That’s going to be Guy B O S T O N. Spelling be champ. Go ahead and check it out, guys. Again, that is underdog. Play $5, get $100 instantly. You get the Dak Prescott square. It’s unbelievable. Nob-rainer. Go check out Underdog. That link will again be down in the description as well as the pinned comment. Make sure you use code Guy Boston. Now, let’s get back to the video. So, Arizona’s offense is a little tricky here if I if I’m being honest, right? Because we know Jacobe Brassett’s in. He’s obviously a veteran, has played on a bunch of different teams. He’s looked really good in his career. Looked really eh in some points of his career. And again, it’s kind of still weird that, you know, we’re saying that Kyler Murray’s questionable, but they’ve already deemed Britt the starter. But overall, I think it comes down to this. This Dallas defense is bad, right? 31st verse the pass in terms of yards per game, 29th in terms of rushing yards per game against 30th in DVO. And this is all in the dashboard as well. You could see here, right? Um 31st passing yards per game, 29th rushing yards per game. Even DVOA wise, absolutely terrible. So yes, even if Jacobe Brassette may not be in the best situation, which I don’t think he is, I don’t think it’s going to be too difficult for him to navigate this game. And what I mean by situation, you could see here Dallas plays a ton of zone and they’re just kind of middle of the pack in terms of pressure, right? Well, Jacobe Percent just a 63% completion percentage against zone compared to 69 against man. His, you know, the W yards per attempt only goes up.1 compared to man. Interception rate jumps. DVA drops into the negatives and EPA is worse as well. So yeah, I can’t sit here and say that this is a great spot for Jacobe Brassette, but it’s not a bad one either because even though we’re talking about zone and how Jacobe Brassette struggles against zone, this Dallas defense, they play a lot of zone. That’s why we’re talking about it. But they allow the most yards per attempt in the entire league when in zone, the worst EPA per drop back, fifth worst DVU, third worst success rate, third most explosive plays, and eighth highest incomp completion percentage. So even though they’re playing a lot of zone, Jacobe may not be good against zone. This zone is dog. You know what? So I’m not all that worried about Jacobe Brassette. And the run game, as crazy as it is, this may be a spot that this Arizona run game can potentially get things going. And it’s a big potential cuz asking them to do anything on the ground is a a tall task, right? But right now, you do have um a rushing attack that is running a lot of man’s uh man schemes, right? Um, we saw that in the dashboard earlier and it is a defense, you know, in Dallas that isn’t all that great against that whatsoever. And actually, I almost missed this. I do want to bring it up. Speaking of how bad that bad that zone is, right? We got to drum on that a little bit more. Caleb Williams is also a guy that has very similar numbers to Jacobe Brassette in terms of struggling against the zone, right? He played that Dallas zone and went off 19 of 28 for nearly 300 yards and four tuds. So, let’s put into perspective that though zones being played again, it’s probably not the worst situation for Buret. But like I mentioned, this Arizona team obviously able to go out there and probably run that man duo. That is even though we already have a bad bad defensive running, you know, team in a sense for the Cowboys. That is actually their worst run game defense against in terms of the man duo scheme. So, yeah, I do think that we could see some running out of Arizona. The problem is, you know, Michael Carter, you have um Bam Knight as your RB12. Uh the guy that tossed the ball demarcard or whatever his name is that toss the ball at the one yard line. It’s still a really tall task like I mentioned to ask them to run the ball. Well, so where do we come out on this game, right? This is a tough one. I could see most of the things I said leaning in one way and then a few of the other pieces I said kind of leaning in the direction. So, you’re probably thinking, “What the hell are you talking about? What are you looking at in this game?” I will say this. I still think that Dak Prescott is by far and away the biggest piece and biggest key to this game. Right, Dak Prescott, Jacobe Brassette, massively offset. Now, this is not a very good Arizona defense. If it was, maybe that kind of is his kryptonite achily seal it a little bit, but it’s not. I think that Dak, Sidi, Pickkins can all have a phenomenal game. They arguably have the top three offensive players in this game, right? So, I’m going to lean towards Dallas and I do think that the points could come in. I’m not going to sit here and tell you that Purset may not play well or that the running game that’s been absent may not do anything, right? Like I think that this may be a spot in which Dallas says, “Whoa, this team’s offensively a little better than we thought and we’re just as bad defensively as we think, but we’re going to try and do a little bit better, but trying doesn’t count, right? It’s still a pretty damn bad defense.” So, I expect Arizona to be able to score. I just can’t see a spot in which, you know, you need third and, you know, short to go and the ball’s in Dak Prescott’s hand with no pressure and nothing to worry about. he’s going to be able to find those guys, right? Especially now that that offense is getting healthier, the offensive line as well. So, I’m going to lean Dallas here. I like them on the money line if he can get a good number behind that. I also don’t mind the idea of, you know, buying the half to get it down to two and a half. Um, cuz I do think it’s going to be a close enough game and back and forth. This is not a full boore. I think Dallas is the far better team. I do think they’re the better team, but they have some of the biggest, you know, red flags in this game as well. Now, from a total perspective, man, this is tough because that 53 and a half is so fair, right? Dallas, you could easily see going out here and putting up 27 points, doing their job, but it wouldn’t be shocking to me if Arizona did something like that as well. So, I’m gonna lean towards the over. It just kind of stinks that is such a high line and and and it really is. You know what I mean? So, I do lean Dallas in the over. Maybe there’s some sort of potential teaser or same game parlay there because I would love this total if it was lower because I do think we’re going to have plenty of successful drives that end in touchdowns on both sides of things. Now, we talked about a couple player props, right? We talked about CD Lamb, George Pickkins. Um, I kind of mentioned obviously Javvante Williams potentially looking at his unders. A couple other spots that I would consider would be Jacobe Brassette. Now, I don’t mind the idea of him in the running game. This is a Dallas team that allowed plenty of scrambles to their opposing quarterbacks. And you can see here, Jacob Brassette last couple games here, right? Boom. 19th and 20, 19 and 26 in terms of rushing yards. Dallas second in rushing yards allowed specifically to the quarterback. Now, are they going to get pressure or anything like that? No. But again, I think that Brassette will be able to tuck and run if he needs to. I also don’t mind him over 21 and a half completions. Again, he did this in his last two games. It shouldn’t be shocking to anyone. And this is a run game that even though I’ve said that there is such potential and some potential that they may be able to establish it against Dallas. There’s no guarantee there whatsoever. Right. What I can assume is that if this is as bad of a secondary as I think it is in the zones as bad as it is, Jooko Jacobe Brassette will probably be able to even if they are finding some success on the ground be able to complete 22 balls and 22 passes. So those are a couple more that I like on the Jacobe Brassette side of things. But guys, that’s all I have for you in today’s video. Um, just a little recap, I guess, to be concise for everyone because I feel like we’re kind of all over the place. But hey, I love talking about sports. Sometimes we just get the motors running, right? I do like Dallas minus the three, minus the two and a half, whatever you can get. I don’t mind the over even though it is a high number, but it totally makes sense to me as to why. George Pickkins, CD Lamb, I like both of them to score a touchdown. I also like their longest receptions each. And then I like Jacobe Brassette rushing yards as well as his pass completions. And then probably on the bottom of the list is that Javvante Williams look for an under in rushing yards from him. Guys, keep an eye on the pinned comment for all of my final plays. I knew I threw a lot at you there, but obviously we whittle it down. and what we actually roll with. If that does matter to you, if you do want to fade me, that is all absolutely free down in the pin comment. We’ll catch you guys in the next one. All right, peace out.

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