MAILBAG: What If The Miami Marlins DO NOTHING This Offseason?

MAILBAG: What If The Miami Marlins DO NOTHING This Offseason?

I’m opening up the mailbag answering your questions. What will happen if the Marlins don’t add this off season? I’m going to break it all down on today’s Locked on Marlins. You are Locked on Marlins, your daily podcast on the Miami Marlins, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Welcome in to Locked On Marlins. I’m your host Jeremiah Guyger. I’m a diehard Marlins fan and I’ve podcasted about the team for the last four seasons. You can find me on Twitter, Jeremiah Gyer, too. And thank you for making Locked on Marlins your first listen of the day. Part of the Locked On podcast network, which is your team every day. Make sure you subscribe to the YouTube channel or wherever you get your podcast. Today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code lock.mlb for $20 off your first purchase. So, last week guys, I posted on Twitter, drop your questions. I’m going to do a mailbag episode. And then Thursday, we had the Cade Gibson interview. So, if you haven’t watched that or listen to that already. Pretty interesting stuff. Great conversation with Cade Marlin’s relief pitcher. Go listen to that if you haven’t already. And I was going to do I wanted to do a a mailbag episode that Friday, but I had an early flight. I was going to Nashville for the weekend. So, I wasn’t able to record at all on Friday. I think I got to the airport at like 5:30 a.m. something like that. Came back Monday and with the air traffic controller, uh, the delays and all this, it was a whole fiasco. I had to rebook a new flight because I was going to miss a connecting flight. But anyway, I made it back home safe just super late. So there wasn’t any episode on Monday and you know um so we got to go hard. We got to go hard this week. We we have a lot to talk about. We have a lot of work to do here on Locked on Marlins. And that starts by finally doing this mailback episode. So thank you guys for everyone who submitted questions. We’re going to talk about all of them. I have some good topics that you guys brought up. So, let’s get right into it. The first question comes from the founder of Fish on First. Great stuff. He listens to the show a lot. Eli Susman. He’s on the show. He’s made appearances here on Locked on Marlins. Great guy. First off, follow what Fish on First does. They’re working non-stop throughout the season, throughout the offseason. But Eli asked this question. and he said, “How many games do you think the Marlins would win next year if they made zero offseason moves and only used players currently in the organization?” Great topic and I can’t wait to get into this. So, if you or if you’re an everyday listener, if you’ve been around, you’re not a new listener, you know how I feel about the this offseason. I think the Marlins need to take some some serious action. They need to make some moves in order to compete in 2026. Essentially, they can’t run it back next season with the same roster intact and expect to improve upon a 79 win team. I don’t think you can do that. This is a topic for another time, but regression. Will the Marlins regress? Who? what players are in danger of regression there. There’s no guarantee number one that everyone stays healthy, number two that everyone replicates the level of success that they had from this past year. So regression is a possibility. And I think when you’ve established a young core, and I I the Marlins have to a degree, Kyle Sters, Augustine Ramirez, Otto Lopez. Then once you once you’ve done that, there comes a point when you have to decide as an organization, now’s our chance. Now our window has opened. So let’s supplement the roster. You don’t have to to spend money like the like the Angels do, you know, and and just give out huge lucrative contracts to aging veterans and try to spend your way to a championship because unless you’re the LA Dodgers, that doesn’t work. And the Dodgers level of spending is something that the Marlins will never ever conceivably achieve, nor should they. um that that’s just a different organization and very easily they could have lost game seven that game seven between the Blue Jays and the Dodgers all-time classic. Ninth inning, Miguel Rojos, former Marlin, postseason hero. But for the Marlins, when your window opens and your opportunity arises for a competitive chance, you you have an opportunity. You’re not, let’s say, the the Rockies where before the season, I think 99.9% of people are going to tell you the Rockies won’t be good. with the Marlins, how confident are you that if they make a couple moves here and there and address some positions of need, they could be good. But the question is this, what if they don’t do any of that? Do do I think they’re going to have the same level of success or improve on 2025 if they only use players currently or in the organization? No, I don’t. I think if the Marlins, for whatever reason, decided, you know what, we’re going to run it back. We’re gonna keep everybody in our organization. We’re not going to spend in free agency. We’re going to make the second largest weight room in baseball, the first largest weight room in baseball. But we’re not going to spend money. We’re not going to make any trades. We’re going to rock with what we got. That includes guys in the minor leagues, guys currently on the in the major leagues, but nobody from outside the organization. If I had to put a number on how many games the Marlins would win, I would say 71. 71 and 91. I think there would be a level of regression because ultimately the Marlins 25 season was very fun. It was a great year to be a fan. They got really really hot for an extended period of time from late June up until a or mid June till August and that kept them in the race and then they fell out of it and then they climbed back into the race before coming up just short. What I’m worried about though is it’s let’s say Kyle Sters has regression at all. He he he he doesn’t replicate that first half of success. Maybe he struggles a little bit. Maybe Augustine Ramirez and his defense just never takes that step forward. Edward Cabrera struggles with command a little bit more. There’s a lot of variables here that could influence the Marlins winning and losing either more or less than a season ago. If everyone is in the organization outperforms their 2025 and Kyle Sour suddenly turns into a legit MVP candidate, which I think he can. He’s got some work to do. We’re going to talk about him later in the show. And Augustine Ramirez is more consistent at the plate. Hits 250 260 and rips 30 bobs. Griffin Conine stays healthy. Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara both stay in the organization and then replicate for Sandy the second half of 2025. That success he found in the back half of last season. Edward Cabrera replicates his 2025 and and establishes himself as a bonafide ace. Let’s see here. Auto Lopez takes a step forward with the bat. Xavier Edwards proves to be more consistent. My point being, if the existing core, if the existing roster all takes a step forward, then this team can win 83 84 games, maybe a little more. I I don’t know. I would say low 80s. If they take a step backward, they’re probably finishing in the low 70s, probably 71 to 75 range. They’re not really taking a step forward. They won 79 when they got when they when they did get lucky. Um when you know some things broke their way at times and they they have the Pythagorean record and and you know they’re scoring one-run games and all this. Ultimately you finish with 79 wins. If you don’t make any other moves and there’s progression then optimistically maybe you replicate that. Maybe you get a few more wins, but chances are you’re not going to get huge jumps in production from everybody. Injuries happen. And that’s why I would say the Marlins would take a step back. I I said 71 wins. I’ll change it. I’ll say 70 75 75 wins. That sounds like, you know, take away four wins from this previous season. That’s why you have to add guys. you you have to add to the roster. Coming up next, we’re going to talk about the play style for the Marlins in 2026. What what were their identity last season? What will their identity be this season? Going to break that down right after this. The NFL season is back and honestly, there’s nothing better than being in the stadium surrounded by fans cheering on your team. But let’s be honest, getting tickets can be a hassle. 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Swipe, tap, ticket, go. Download Game Time today. I appreciate all the Everyday Locked On Marlins listeners. Can’t do this without you guys. Share the podcast with your friends. This off season is now officially in full swing. The World Series has ended. Dodgers over the Blue Jays in seven. I had the Blue Jays over the Dodgers in seven, but we’re continuing this Mailbag episode. Victor, fan of the show. He says, “What play style do you want to see from the Marlins next year?” So, first off, what identity did the Marlins have a season ago? And what I mean by that is, you know, there’s some teams that have a certain identity in the way they win baseball games, in the way they try to win baseball games. For example, small ball. You’re going to have teams that they steal, they bunt, they they they bunt to get runners in scoring position. They don’t have a ton of sluggers, but they’re they’re gritty. They get on base. They create havoc for opposing defenses and when you you put the ball in play, good things happen. They play sound defense and they win a lot of games. Then you have teams like, I don’t know, the Braves from a few years ago. They just hit home run after home run after home run. They got sluggers. That team wins games because of their offense. And it’s very clear and obvious they’re not going to wait around for, you know, a sacrifice bunt, get the runner to third base. No, you get a runner on, maybe you you draw a walk, it’s a three-run jack, you’re up three to nothing. That’s the type of offense, that’s their identity. Then I think you have teams like where offensively it’s kind of whatever, but the strength of their team is that pitching staff. And the whole thing is no matter how how many games you end up winning in the regular season, if you get to the playoffs and you have to deal with them for a fivegame series in the division series, you’re not going to want to face their one, two, three starter cuz those guys are really good. The rotation is the strength of the team. The pitching staff is the strength of the team. So for the Marlins in 2025, it’s kind of hard to say what their identity was, what their play style was. They ultimately finished with 79 wins. Their bullpen was okay. Their pitching staff, their rotation was okay. Okay, their offense didn’t have a ton of power, but it also didn’t have that small ball feel to it. I’m not really sure the Marlins had a clear identity. So, in 2026, what will it be? Now, the way the Marlins played the game, they played with grit. They played with a lot of heart. This was a team that believed in themselves, that were trying to prove themselves and establish themselves at the major league level. Think of Jacob Marcy, Otto Lopez, his second year after being claimed from the Giants off of waiverss. Augustine Ramirez, his rookie season. Rule five draft pick, Liam Hicks, Edward Cabrera, arguably on his final chance to prove he can be a starter. Sandy coming back off of Tommy John surgery. This was a prove it mode for the Marlins in 25. And I think that’s where you saw that grit and that heart really come into play. But in 2026, I think we I think we’re going to see a a identity take place. And that is the strength of this team lies in the rotation. It lies in the pitching staff. The Marlins are a pitching factory. I’ve said this many times on this show. This is where you look at your depth and you say, “This is a very good problem to have. It’s not a problem at all. In fact, it’s a benefit to this organization.” Braxton Garrett’s back. Jansen Junk coming off of a season in which he walked like 13 batters in over a 100 innings. Robbie Snelling is major league ready. Thomas White is knocking on the door. This is going to be the second season from for for Sandy Alcantara away from Tommy John surgery. Same with Yuri Perez. Edward Cabrera looked like an ace this past season. This starting rotation is deep. It’s talented and it’s going to be the focal point of the Marlins identity in 2026. That’s going to be their play style, Victor. It’s going to be our guys that we’re throwing one through five are better than yours and they’re going to win us games. And then we’re going to take an extended step forward with the offense. That’s the key. Pitch well, do just enough on offense with enough with above average power in order to win games. I’d love that to be the Marlins identity in 2026. If you can get if you can sign a slugger, if you can sign someone that provides some juice at first base, if Kyle Sourers and Augustine Ramirez continue bringing the juice, if Joe Mack comes up and and showcases the power that he has, Conine stays healthy, who I think Griffin Conine can be a 30 home run a year player in the major leagues if everything clicks and he’s on the field. I think the Marlins are going to be in a really good spot because that rotation’s deep. It’s talented. It has it has reinforcements in the minor leagues. And you supplement that with a lineup that can give you some power. Maybe not, you know, three guys over 30 homers, but maybe Sters approaches 30. Maybe Conine approaches 30. Augustine’s at 25. This this team could have some thump to it, this lineup. Who knows? Maybe maybe they do get three guys over 30 homers. You never know. It would take it would take an increased level of production and it would take staying healthy. I think it would take signing a slugger. Looking at you, Josh Naylor. We’ll see what they do. But yeah, that should be the identity of this team. It lies in their pitching and then their lineup supplements the pitching staff. The lineup can’t can’t be in a position anymore to to lose to be the reason why the Marlins are 10 15 games under 500. Can’t be can’t be it. You have enough players that I feel confident about. Now you just supplement the lineup. Now, this doesn’t allow for injuries. Of course, this doesn’t account for injuries. And if injuries happen to this lineup and you haven’t supplemented it, you haven’t signed a guy that can can help take the load off Kyle Sters or Augustine Ramirez, then things could get dicey. And injuries happen. They’re always a part of the game. So hopefully that doesn’t happen. I I can’t wait to see what the Marlins do. Kyle Sters in particular, he was nominated for a Silver Slugger award. We’re going to talk about Kyle Stours, his Silver Slugger nomination, and also just the expectations for him coming off of a great 2025. That’s coming up right after this. This episode is brought to you by Prize Picks. You and I make decisions every day, but on Prize Picks, being right can get you paid. Don’t miss any of the excitement of this sports season. Whether you’re following the NFL, the NBA, or both sports, there’s no better time to jump in on the action. If you haven’t tried it yet, Price Fix is the simplest way to play. Just pick more or less on at least two player stats, and if you get them right, you win. It takes less than 60 seconds to make your lineup and you can play anywhere Price Pix operates, including states like California, Texas, and Georgia. You can pick your favorite players with the NFL, in the NBA, and see how your predictions pay out. And they have a new couple of new features, which I think are awesome. 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I mean, he was left for dead essentially after 2024. came over from Baltimore, just looked completely overmatched at the plate, and there were no expectations involving Sters to be productive for the Marlins in any meaningful way last season. And he came in and from opening day defied the odds, defied the expectations, and proved that you know what, this guy, he’s really, really good. Out of nowhere. came absolutely out of nowhere. Hit 288, slug 544, an OPS of 912, 25 bombs, and he was injured the last month and a half of the season. So for Kyle Sters, he was nominated to a silver slug slugger award. Um, will he win it necessarily? You know, of course, I’d love I’d I’d love to see Kyle Sters win the Silver Slugger, and that’s going to be coming up in just a couple of days, November 6 to no November 7th. The competition he has, he’s going to have Corbin Carroll, Pete Crow Armstrong, Juan Sodto, Kyle Tucker, and James Wood. I think it’s it’s three of those guys will win it. I I look at the silver sluggers sometimes as a popularity. I look at all awards as a popularity contest to a to an extent. Um what hurts Stardw’s chances is that he was injured the second part of the second half. You know, there was a chance he would come back and then he never did. He got reinjured in his rehab assignment. So to answer Will and his question because he said, “What are Kyle Sour’s chances at winning the Silver Slugger?” I’m going to say they’re minimal. I don’t expect Sour to win it. I’m glad he was named a finalist, but there’s some other names on there that had really good years. You look at Corbin Carroll, you Kyle Tucker, and then even Pete Crow Armstrong, um, who’s a very popular player in his own right. the Marlins, Kyle Sters, it’s gonna be hard. It’s going to be an uphill battle for him to to actually secure the hardware. But I’m I’m looking at at Sters and what he did last season, and it was great, but it’s got me excited because I think there’s more room for him to improve as a baseball player, especially as a hitter. And the main thing that I look at is yes, he hits the ball hard. Yes, he’s got elite bat speed. Pretty much all of his numbers across the board are really good to elite. There’s one not flaw, but part of his game that he can improve on, and part of that is this is built into his offensive profile, but also I think he can lower these numbers and become even more efficient. And that’s his whiff rate, his chase rate, and ultimately his strikeout rate. So, a season ago, he was in the sixth percentile in whiff percentage. whiffed 32 and a half% of the time. Chased 28% of the time. So that’s right about average. So he’s not chasing a ton, but it could get better. You know, you’d like to see him be a little more selective at the plate. And then you have the strikeout rate. Struck out 27% of the time. That was in the 10th percentile. So he sees a pitch, he’s going to take a big old hack at it. And sometimes he comes up empty. Sometimes that leads to strikeouts. Sometimes it leads to five for five days like he did in Baltimore where he homered three times against his former team, his former organization. And that’s great if Sters can can do the same thing and you know he stays healthy and in 26 he finishes with a 910 OPS again. I will take that 10 days out of seven days out of seven every day of the week. Whatever you want to say. twice on Sunday. I think that’s going to be a great production we’re going to get from from Kyle Sters if he has n a 910 ops, 30 30 bombs, 25 bombs, whatever it is. But my point being, if he can look at that that that strikeout rate, that whiff rate, and just be a little bit more selective, if he can get a little bit better at fouling off a tough two strike pitch, being more bat-toball oriented instead of just taking these mighty hacks. and he can bring that that whiff rate to, you know, 25 26%. Then he’s going to be a better player overall. And that’s my point with this. There’s room to improve with Kyle Sters. As good as he’s been, and as as great as his offensive profile is, imagine how much more better he would be if he didn’t whiff over 30% of the time. That’s got me excited. And I know he knows that. I know that’s something that the organization can work on in this off season. So, I’m excited for what Sters is is going to do for an encore to this remarkable 2025 season. It’s it’s going to be exciting. We have the winter meetings coming up. Dominicus asks, “What, if anything, can we expect the Marlins to do during the upcoming winter baseball meetings?” I think the Marlins are going to Oh, man. I think they’re going to make a trade. I don’t I I don’t know who, but I I know Peter Bendix likes to be active in the trade market. So, to answer your question, I think we’re going to see a trade, maybe two, at the winter meetings. I could be wrong, but I do think this team’s going to be active in some capacity this off season. You know, the the World Series just ended, but the grind never stops. I I think this team’s window is open now. They have to supplement the roster. They can’t they can’t stand Pat because you risk players regression. I’m not saying that’s my expectation, but it’s a possibility. And very rarely do thing do does everything break right for a team. 162 games is a long, long season. Guys get hurt. Guys, guys hit cold spells. You lose one run games. That’s why once you have your core, you start supplementing the roster. We’re going to wrap it up here. I appreciate you guys tuning in today. Until next time, stay safe, stay locked on. For your next watch or listen, go check out Locked on MLB over on the Locked On MLB YouTube channel or wherever you get your pods as well. Shout out to Soleie over there who’s the host of Locked On MLB. So stay safe, stay locked on, and let’s go fish.

Answering YOUR mailbag questions! How will the Marlins do if they don’t add any players this offseason? Is there a certain playstyle or identity of this team heading into next season? Kyle Stowers was great in 2025 but can be even better.

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