Chicago Cubs DECLINE option on Shota Imanaga | Could he still return for 2026?

Chicago Cubs DECLINE option on Shota Imanaga | Could he still return for 2026?

Matt predicted it. It happened. The Chicago Cubs declined show Managa’s option. What next? You are Locked on Cubs. Your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. You are Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On Network. your team every day. Alongside Sam Olber, I’m Matt Cozy. Sam and I are lifelong fans taking our passion into a discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. Cubs declined their club option on Shota Imanaga on Tuesday and Imanaga declined his player option making him a free agent. The Cubs could make him a qualifying offer but we’ll get you more details on that later. Shota had a sensational first year in 2024 All-Star game, fifth in Sai Young voting. opening day starter this past March and then he missed two months with a hamstring injury and allowed 15 home runs the last two months of the year. Cubs did not only start him in game five of the NLDS, but he didn’t even appear in the game. And after that to pick up a club option of three years and 57 million plus a full no trade, Sam, it it just didn’t seem like a good choice. Well, first of all, I I’d like to commend you um on really covering this sharply. You know, we started talking about this, I think off the air, right around August or or or when he started a struggle. Um and I remember right about September one. Yeah. And I remember floating it out on the show. I think it would have was a solo show right around the postseason of like, you know, it’s no guarantee that he’s going to be back and and then you kind of just went all in and just and just took it beautifully. So, so great job by you on that. Um, yeah, no surprise here. And I think it’s a surprise to a lot of people because his struggles, if you don’t watch every day, were a little bit quieter. and and he is he is such a beloved figure on the team. Um but in terms of in terms of of of the production and what we expected um it’s not a surprise. I think the big question is actually still out there which is will they extend the $22 million qualifying offer. I think it’s a no-brainer that he would accept that. So I’m not even going to entertain the fact that that oh well and then if he would accept it or not. Uh, no, he’s not making any close to that type of money. I I I think he’s looking at some sort of like a, you know, like a three-year 50, three year 45, something like that. Um, at best, maybe even like two two for 40, two for 36. Yeah. So, he’s taken the qualifying offer if the Cubs extend it. The question is is is will they extend it? Um, which we’ll talk about. But, yeah, just just not surprising. I I know a lot of people are up in arms and confused about, well, hey, I don’t think the Cubs are just going to do anything until the collective bargaining stuff gets agreed on and they have a bunch of deals. Yeah, I think that’s I think that’s a fair concern. I think they’ll be very heavily in the one-year market, but I also think just like the Tucker conversation that this was the right decision. Um the only the only counter to it is that with the way Wrigley is played may and and by the way there’s another world here where Shota says I know that I need to play at Wrigley. So even if the Cubs don’t extend the qualifying offer maybe they talk about a lesser deal. Oh that’s that’s true. Yeah. You know because I just can’t picture a place where he would pitch that’s better. May maybe Seattle. Um it’s got to be on the West Coast. That’s what I was thinking cuz somebody mentioned Cincinnati to me today. San Francisco. And if he were to go to Cincinnati and make 30 starts, he could very well he he could give up 45 home runs. Yeah, that’s not that would be a that would be what we call a poor fit. Poor fit. The other thing that I that gives me pause here, Sam, and and you know this the best. This is your number one goal. Win games. Yeah. When he was on the mound the last two years, they went 36 and 18. Yeah, it’s a great point. I just I I’m struggling with that today. Yeah. It doesn’t seem like you’re struggling with it because your face has so much color that it literally looks like you just got back from a vacation. So, I’m wondering if there’s anything you’d like to to to give me like an over over-the-counter suggestion or something to look as as tan as you do uh when it’s dark outside at 5:30. Well, I could do that off the air for sure. Okay. Thank you. I don’t give any free free endorsements. Yeah, because I just, you know, 67% of their games they won when this dude was on the mound. Y, man. and and of course a lot of the show eventually will be what’s next, but that’s that’s um nothing to dismiss. And they they got great value out of him for two years. Their whole marketing plan was basically around him. Uh further proof that this is a business after all. Although you mentioned that he could come back. There’s a number of avenues. Just doesn’t I’m not too optimistic about that right now. uh increased presence and reputation in Japan both with the Japanese player and Japanese fan. But I think at the end of the day, Sam, he he lost touch with some of his pitches, namely the splitter, fast ball vo way down. Uh you know, missing bats was was rare for him to towards the end and even generating any type of soft contact. So I think the Cubs are ready to move on. I am interested in the qualifying offer which is about $22 million. I don’t want to give him that. That’s too much money. Yeah. I just Yeah. I mean, that’s what it’s set at. So, it’s, you know, it’s a static figure, but Right. I’d rather renegotiate. Okay. So, then you wouldn’t offer him the qualifying offer then? No. I I I I would say, “Hey, we’re really interested in having you back. We love you. You’re you’re you’re a great asset. You’re a good pitcher.” Do they? Because they He wasn’t even on the card in game five. Well, he wasn’t pitching well. You know, he wasn’t pitching well at that time. Um, what does their Ivy projection system say? If it’s if it’s bad if it’s bad news, they’re not going to call him. I’d off this is what I’d offer him. Two for 33. Wow. Two for 32. Two for 33. Something like that. Right. That’s a little more than the player option that he declined today. Yeah. I I’d offer him that. say we’d love to have you back and go from there. I just there no there there are no bad one-year deals or at least there aren’t many of them and what should be a win now year that 22M shouldn’t hamper anything. I thought Hosmer was a bad one-year deal. I’d have to look at the finances. Well, I don’t care what they were. He was really If it was one If it was a one-year deal worth $5, he was taking places of other guys. He was thinking about his media company at that point already. I I think he seeks a two or three year deal with the Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, or Padres’s. Sam, I don’t think he’s coming back. Thought Fulmer was a one-year bad deal. Um, say those names again. I don’t think he’s coming back. I think he gets two two or three years from either the Mariners, Giants, Dodgers, or Padres’s. You said the Dodgers. Oh, yeah. I’d like to I’d like to go to break. Coming up next, what’s the current opening day rotation for the Cubs? It’s, you know, without Sha, without Justin Steel, who will likely not be ready for opening day, it’s looking pretty bare. Uh we talk about the rotation and we go over all the options again in the free agency and trade markets coming up next. Today’s episode is brought to you by Prize Picks. You and I make decisions every day. But on Prize Picks, being right can get you paid. Don’t miss any of the excitement of this sports season. Whether you’re following the NFL, the NBA, or both, there’s no better time to jump in on the action. If you haven’t tried it yet, prize picks is the simplest way to play. Just pick more or less on at least two player stats and if you get them right, you win. It takes less than 60 seconds to make your lineup and you can play anywhere prize picks operates including California, Texas and Georgia. You have to try prize picks this Sunday. Bears Giants noon central time. Caleb Williams over under passing yards. Uh Roma Dunay overunder receiving yards. Kyle Manungai over over under rushing yards. It’s all really uh good picks to look at. And you can download the prize picks app today and use code lockdown MLB to get $50 in lineups after you play your first $5 lineup. That’s code lockdown MLB for $50 in lineups after your first $ five lineup. Prize picks. It’s good to be right. Shout out to the everydayers and you can become a lockdown cubs everydayer by joining us for every episode throughout the week. All right, the possibility of no show to Iaga continues to increase and Justin Steel might be ready for opening day. Uh but it’s more likely he gets more time. you know, even uh the the last his last appearance with you, Sam, reading a little bit between the lines, you know, maybe it’s just a couple weeks more, maybe it’s a few, right? Uh you know, who who knows? I I I got no gauge. I I I really didn’t it it didn’t that there was nothing that that stood out to me of, you know, a specific time. Well, let’s say he’s back by by May 1st because that’s my guess. Okay. Okay. I think that’s I think that’s fair. So, first time through the rotation then to open the campaign on March 26th against the Nationals. Nationals and Angels. If the Cubs don’t start 4-2, you could find a new partner. Well, that’s very I I was thinking on my walk today five- one. Yeah. No, I’m already there, but we should be there because you know the Bears are looking good. Boyd, Horton, Tyion, Assad, and Wix is the rotation right now. Well, no, that’s so they’re going to add guys I understand. I’m just trying to trying to put put that in context. Ben Brown and Jackson Wiggins would be next. All right. Dylan CE at the top of the market for for free agent pitchers. I don’t see them going after Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez. We talked about that early last week. And then you have the next tier of free agents which is Michael King, Zack Allen, Brandon Woodruff. although his his status his health status is doubtful uh or just there’s some uncertainty around it and then likely Shane Bieber depending on his option situation in Toronto. Really those names should be the targets in my opinion when you pair that with the the four plus guys in the trade market which is Joe Ryan, Edward Cabrera, McKenzie Gore, Sandy Elcontra. I guess where I’m at, Sam is you need to find impact somewhere. Yeah, I get it. They might reunite with a Savali or someone for for depth, but you need also impacts and and where where do you stand on this? So, here’s how I look at the rotation. When Steel’s back and things are rolling, Horton, Steel, Boyd, Tyion, player X, player Y. Really? Yeah. And player Y could be a Jackson Wiggins. Player Y could be somebody internally, and I’m not saying a sixman rotation. I’m just saying you don’t just have five. It’s just lazy to say five. Yeah. Yeah. and player X is going to be a a guy that they really like. Now, am I going to get all excited and say it’s going to be Dylan CE? Probably not. Is it going to be pro something more along the lines of a Matthew Boyd type where they find a guy, identify a guy they like, and go grab him? Yes. Um, but if Steel comes back healthy and and is pitching really well, the combination of him, Horton, Boyd, JO, and and this guy we’re talking about, it’s going to be a good rotation. Uh the question is is can it be great? You know, can it be can it be a rotation like Yamamoto and Otani and these guys where you could just you could win World Series off of it. Yeah, I that that’s the question. And and by the way, you know what I think of of Steel? You know what I think of of Horton? I if if they go you know what I think of Boyd. if they do go out and get some monster like like think about if they got a guy that produced like Boyd did last year, right? You know, and and my respect for Jameson Tyion is it’s through the roof. And I don’t care if he gives up seven home runs his first start. I don’t care what that man did in back-to back starts with our season against the wall. I don’t forget things like that. No. And and we shouldn’t. Um, I I just You could have went even deeper. No, I I like what you’re dishing out. I just really want to commit to what the tiers are and the fact that the Cubs need to get from the so-called upper tier. Yeah, but Matt, we keep saying this. These two rotations look different. Like, where do you stand on Edward Cabrera? Like, look at this rotation. Steel, Cabrera, Boyd, Horton, Tyion. And then how about this one? Steel, gallon, void, Horton, Tyion, major difference. Yes. And that would obviously be a big trade, which is very possible. But when it comes to finances, I don’t trust them to go hand out 200 million. So the Cabrera piece. So you don’t trust the Cubs to add an impact starter. They could slap between Steel and Horton. Is that what you’re saying? It’s not what I’m saying. Okay. Cabrera is what would Cabrera be? Please. Please go. Could Cabrera be a trade? Yes. Yeah. I So that that is something that I expect them to do. I don’t expect them to do it with 200 150 $175 million in free agency. I just don’t see this organization. And that doesn’t mean that I’m accepting it. That doesn’t mean I’m I’m I’m making it okay. I’m just saying it it’s it’s just the reality of the situation. It’s It’s no different than when I go to the gym and I I I get ready to play pickup and I look around and I want to I want to get the ball on the wing, take a couple jab steps, take two dribbles, and dunk in traffic. I can’t do that, right? And and and and and it frustrates me that I can’t do that. But I’ve never been able to do that. The Cubs, it’s different. They can do it, but they’re not doing it. And I can’t force it. I can’t force myself to be a better athlete. And so I’m just like, yes, it stinks, but Tom Ricketts makes the decisions. And I just I’d be really surprised if you saw a three-digit contract handed out this off season before this uh uh collective bargaining deal. Well, then if they if they’re not going to go nine figures on a pitcher, which is a lot, I’ll admit, they’ll trade they’ll trade for one, right? Then they’re not going to get cease. Maybe they could get Tyler Mey. He had a nice year. Steel, Mey, Void, Horton, Tyion, uh, he and Erra in the twos. Yeah. Look, this is how they’re operating. Well, so if they’re if they’re going to make that trade, that’ll be really exciting. And that would be two off seasons in a row they make a huge splash. By the way, Baseros would be in that deal, probably. Yeah. Also, all all four of those names, I believe, except Schwarber. I think they could do that. Are under control past 26 or is Alcantra might be a free agent after 26 off the Listen, it’s very clear they want to have clean financial books beyond 26. They they they think they’re getting ahead of this new these new rules. Yeah, but Ryan Cabrera and Gore though would be around for at least a couple couple campaigns which would be nice and that’s why they have a higher price which makes sense. Michael King makes me nervous. Yeah. You know, I think you could get him like four for 80. I don’t know. I don’t know if I would do that. Well, four for 80. I do. Four for 80. Four for 80. Absolutely. But okay. I Here’s the thing. I hope the Cubs know what they’re doing because it would be really bad. It’d be great for baseball, but it’d be really bad if after the 26th season, they’re just like, “We’re just going to run it back with everything as normal.” and the Cubs have all these things to to open their books and get ahead of this situation. Um, but we’ll see. It’s going to be a lot of financial talk. Uh, but they’re going to add a pitcher that’s going to be really good. The question is is is is how. Okay. And your your your instinct right now is via trade. Yes. or they go out maybe andor maybe and slash or they make a trade and they go get a Matthew Boyd type that they that they identify as a guy that they think to be really good, you know. Well, that would really be loading up because then Tyion becomes what, like the sixth or seventh guy. Well, no, Tyion’s in this rotation. So, then maybe they do some optionality stuff with Horton or I don’t know what they I I never assume all five guys are going to be healthy at the same time. It just You shouldn’t. That’s No, that’s true. You know, we got in my opinion, our best guy is coming off elbow surgery. So, like you don’t know. I mean, Steel did say on the show he’s going to be on a pitch count when he comes back, of course. So, so you might want to you might want to quarterback him, you know, piggyback him with with one of these guys. So, you know, Steel throws 6065 for a month and then, you know, player X comes in after for for the, you know, 605 pitches, you’re throwing four innings. Well, I’ve always advocated for that type of thing. They just no one’s ever listened to that. But uh because of my lack of trust in the Cubs, that’s why I’m rooting for the qualifying offer with Shota because that guarantees they bring a pitcher who who can’t contribute uh in the fold right away. I’m rooting for just I don’t trust them. I don’t want them to give him a 22 because I know we’re going to hear that excuse. I I want I just don’t I don’t I don’t I don’t mind for one year. I I don’t I I I I want him back, but I think you can get him back for for for two for 30, two for 32, something like that. All right, coming up next, uh the Cubs also have three other option decisions. One of those players was traded on Tuesday, Andrew Kitridge. Also, we’ll talk about Colin Ray and Justin Turner. Coming up next, this episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you missed the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel’s live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. Folks, I hope your team isn’t the Brooklyn Nets. Uh they went into the season with an overunder w total on FanDuel at 19 and a half which seemed high. They’re awful. Um they’re winless this year. Um I I took their under so I’ve caught maybe a few halves of their games. If you want to have a laugh, you’re hanging out with with a spouse or or whatever. You just want to say this is one of the worst basketball teams maybe of of the 2020s. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Make sure you’re subscribed to Locked On Cubs. That way, you don’t miss any of the great Cubs content we’ve got for you either on your preferred audio platform or YouTube. as we close in there to 17,000 subscribers. The Cubs traded Andrew Kitrich to the Orioles on Tuesday for cash, meaning that the Cubs decided Kitridge, at least to them, was not worth the $9 million club option for 26. The Orioles did though, and we’ll send 1 million to the Cubs to cover Kitridge’s buyout if the club club option is officially or unofficially, I’m not really sure, triggered by the Orioles. Kitridge was acquired by the Cubs from those at the trade deadline. He had a blowup outing, his third appearance with the Cubs. And then after that, he allowed only four runs on 11 hits in 20 games. He also had five postseason innings, including the clinching game of the wild card series. This was a uh, you know, interesting note from from that that that came across today. Yeah. Um, I didn’t think it was surprising at all. I also think it might have been a part of the original deal. Um, wow. Really? Yeah. I read that and I think it was Andy Martinez said that and that would make a lot of sense. Like, hey, I wonder if he has a house there and all that. Yeah. Just like, hey, hey, we’re going to send him back and then you you decide what you want to do with him. Um, and we just don’t have to worry about the buyout. The Cubs were never going to give Kitridge the nine million. It’s just not how it works. um with with the way they do business with relievers. Um you could you you could make the argument that he actually is worth that in the reliever market with with how good he was when he was a Cub, but I just I mean we talked about this. They were never going to do that. They want to have flexibility. They’ll figure it out. Um, so they made, you know, they got they got, not only did they not only did they not have to handle the nine million, they got an extra million bucks out of it because if they don’t do that deal, they they don’t do that deal, they have to give them the a million dollar, you know, buyout. So now the Orioles, it really is an interesting deal because I’m actually not sure the And I know they said it’s for cash considerations. I don’t actually think the Cubs get a million dollars, right? They just avoid having to give Kitridge the a million dollars. Isn’t that how that would work? I think I think that’s right. Yeah. Yeah. But they still label it right cash considerations. It’s very I I don’t want to Yeah, maybe they get a What does it matter? Why did I Why Why did I bring that up? Who cares? Well, what a waste of 30 seconds that that was for this program. The point is is Andrew K. He pitched well. He was No, he was better than well. He was excellent. Um I I I trusted him with the with with with our season on the line. Uh I give him tons of credit for the job that he did here. Great trade from Jed. um all good and I and I’m fine not giving him the 9 million. I don’t think it’s a big story. Yeah, for a sixth or seventh inning guy, maybe even earlier in the playoffs, I I didn’t see them investing that. Uh which is why before we get to Ray or Turner, it’s hard to see them bringing back really anybody except maybe Pomerance or or maybe outside chance Theelbar, but I think Keller’s going to get paid after the year he had. So, which eliminates him from the Cubs because we, you know, Right. Well, he might get $10 million for two years. So, 20 total. Yeah. I think a team could go 20 over two. Yeah. That’s that’s that’s bonkers to me. Right. So, then there you go. But, uh, and I’m not trying to be this, you know, people are like, Sam, you’re turning into Jed. Look, you’re you’re you’re you’re counting the the dollars and cents all of a sudden. Yes. Because I know they’re going to. So that’s so I I’m I’m trying to give the the the listeners a No, I I I hear you. Yeah. From that perspective, right? But I will say even even in that case and and Keller was amazing. I I I can’t go two for 20 for Brad Keller. Even I did that that I can’t do. Uh well, in in that department, I trust the Cubs to identify guys one fine, right? But two a two-year relief deal at 10 year. You know, you got to be you you have to have just one more than one really good year on your plate there. It’s almost not even worth going over bullpen targets anymore because they’re going to grab a bunch of guys. Absolutely. I’d be shocked if they got Robert Suarez or something like that. But think about like the Cubs how how many like teamfriendly deals that they have. Like I think Justin Steel is one of the 15 best arms in baseball. If he comes back healthy, he’s going to get get what 7 million. PCA, not even not even PCA is on arbitration. Uh he’s going to make 850K next year. Bush is on arbitration. Um you know, Shaw is on arbitration. Kelly’s on a good deal. Like they don’t have any bad contracts. You know, they’re in a very financially healthy place. You just wish they would just go, you know, go, you know, go go spend it. Boyd’s a great deal. Tyion. Tyion at one point looked like he was overpaid. That’s a fine deal. Well, the all the young guys are pre-arbitration. They just say, “Hey, here’s your number.” Yeah. Yeah. That’s what I meant. Prearb. Horton’s pre-arb. PCA’s prearb. Right. Right. You can make the case those are your two best players. Right. Right. Right. Suzuki’s being very fairly compensated. I’m waiting for the Ray and Turner news, but Sam, I think they’re gonna have Haps not overpaid. I I I don’t want to tweet this yet or break this news. I feel like I’ll be first. And if you’re this far deep into it, you know, I really appreciate it, but I think they’re going to have about 75 million to the first threshold. Mancini was a bad deal. Seven. That was a bad one-year deal. You’re right. Uh, also they could bring back Michael Sarroka as a reliever. So, does that 75 million include your arbitration projections? Yes, it does. All right. Well, then they better go sign Schwarber or something like that. 75 mill though. Well, let’s just think about it. 75 million just for next year. So that means you could pro you’d probably allocate 20 to the bullpen, 15 20 to the bullpen, 30 for an impact bat, and that still leaves you with 25 if you wanted another starter. So what I don’t understand, but we’re going to sit here and do this all off season like position though. You have to go all in. This is it. It’s not This is it. It’s not like that movie with uh with that movie, what was it? James Franco, this is the end where there it’s you know there’s still going to be a season. I I know. I just Yeah, I hear you. I hear you. You know what what do you think Castro is going to get in No, the joke’s getting Well, I think he’s going to get he’ll get actually probably more than you think. What does that mean? I think he’ll get a oneyear like56 million dollar deal. That’s about exactly what I think. Oh, okay. Yeah. Well, what in some of the team with socks getting him three for 30? I hope the Cubs pick up Colin Ray’s option this week and uh how much is that decline? Justin Turner’s mutual option. Yeah. And and just say again how much each of those were. I know you said it already. Yeah. So Ray Club option six, Turner Mutual 10. Yeah, it’s a no-brainer on both. You bring you bring you bring Ray back and Turner Turner goes. Uh qualifying uh that that deadline is Thursday. Okay. So, is the qualifying offer deadline for Imanaga and Tucker if they do if they do those? Well, they’re going to do Tucker. Yeah. Then players have until the afternoon of November 18. So, still a couple weeks to uh either accept or decline that really. Then the day after that, the 19th of November, that’s when things will really start to begin. If Tucker got a four-week period, if Tucker accepts the qualifying offer, I’ll do every single show from here to opening day with some sort of Iowa gear on. Wouldn’t that be amazing if he accepted that? It would also be amazing if I woke up tomorrow 65 225 pounds and I could, you know, maybe slam dunk you and I could enter the draft, right? All right, that’s the show, man. Really good shows this week. So, all right. Anything else? Uh, the Bulls host the Sixers tonight. Wait, so is there really winless teams in basketball from earlier? You mentioned Well, it’s just the Nets. The Nets are Oh, wow. No, you and Kira. One night I I’ll give you my league pass where just watch the Nets play. I’m not doing that. Well, Bennett will be sleeping. He’ll be sleeping midway through the first quarter. I’d like to watch the Bulls, but I don’t I don’t get the channel. So, no. No, I don’t have CHSN either. I Yeah, it’s it’s really challenging. He’s Sam Olber. I’m Matt. I just want to watch TV. Locked on Cubs. Part of the lockdown podcast. YouTube TV and ESPN now have a problem. Your team every day. Yeah.

Find out why the Cubs decided to decline their club option on Shota Imanaga and whether or not they could still bring him back. Plus: Will the Cubs make a big move for a starting pitcher this offseason? + Andrew Kittredge gets traded to the Orioles with option decisions still looming on Colin Rea and Justin Turner.

Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms…
🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/podcasts/locked-on-cubs/

Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More
🎧 https://lockedonpodcasts.com/leagues/mlb/

#Cubs #ChicagoCubs