Which NHL teams are competition for the Colorado Avalanche and which are frauds?

Which NHL teams are competition for the Colorado Avalanche and which are frauds?

They have a funny story. It’s too long a story. We’ll do after. Yeah. [Music] [Applause] [Music] Welcome in to the BMVR Avalanche podcast live from the Toyota Lounge powered by your Front Range Toyota dealerships and presented by Bet 365. We’ve got AJ and Rudo coming to you on an Avalanche off day and we’re doing a little bit of hate maxing today on the show talking about the teams who might be a little bit fraudulent in the NHL. We’ll talk about the teams at the top who we think are legit too today, but you know, we’re essentially a month into the season. There is now, I don’t want to say enough data to really get a perfect feel for every team, but there’s enough data where you can start reading into things some a little bit. Most teams 12, 13, 14 games into their season. So, there’s some extrapolation to be done here and we’re going to take a look at some of that. Starting off with the Avalanche who after their win last night are at the top of the NHL as far as points percentage is concerned and and and sit at the top. AJ, how legit is this run for the Colorado Avalanche? Obviously, you don’t get to the top of the league by accident, but with leading points, five overtime losses, how legitimate are the ABS? I think they’re really legitimate because um you you look at the underlyings, you look at uh their process for it, and there have been enough poor games from your goalending that uh you can’t just look at it and say, “Oh, well, their goalies are bailing them out in every way. their goalies. And when I say goalies, it’s basically like Wedgewood. Yeah. You’ve had two starts from Trent Miner and Mackenzie Blackwood. Um, so I I I think that it’s really like Wedgewood has done the job that you would want him to do. Has he like has he seriously threatened McKenzie Blackwood as number one? No man. But when if you if you would have told us that through 14 games the ABS would have got one start out of Mackenzie Blackwood during preseason, I would have been like go 500. Not that Wedgewood is bad, but like you’re trying to mitigate that loss for sure. You’re trying to you’re trying to minimize that damage. I would have said go 500. Maybe like have a 600 point percentage if you’re really feeling good about yourself. 750. Pretty outrageous. Number one in the NHL. Like number one in the NHL. And yeah, like have they have they been a little OT kingy? Yeah. But through 14 games, they’ve lost one time in regulation. And that was a game that they kind of dominated in Boston possession wise. Certainly. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. That was a that was certainly a fun litmus test of eyes versus analytics. Um, but I I I think that what my big question to anybody that that’s quote unquote hating uh or I guess doubting is what about the Avalanche start do you think would be fake or or unre repeatable? I don’t think anything Well, they’re not going to end the season with 25 overtime losses. Uh, I’ll put it to you that way. Um, right. So, the thing that immediately jumps to your mind as unre repeatable is the games that they’ve lost. Yeah, it’s a fair question of how many of those are games they got to overtime that they shouldn’t have. Um, how many of How many do you think that is? Two, maybe three. Which one? Which ones? Uh, the Carolina game for sure. Okay. And then maybe the Dallas game. Not that not that they don’t deserve the credit of like getting the comeback and getting there, but there have been a couple games where they put themselves in bad spots that you can’t consistently expect to perform that comeback. I was I was I would have said the other one would have been the first New Jersey game that I that felt a little like I think that’s fair. Might have stolen this one just a touch. But like all the others, even though they might have been outplayed for stretches, like the Carolina game was an interesting one because again, you look at all the numbers for it, they dominate that game. Yeah, but they were just in such a bad hole early on that it especially against a really good team like that. Now, with caveats, they were missing half their def their normal defense defenders. Yeah. So, that’s not like the normal Carolina. That was a Carolina that they were able to take advantage of. But frankly, if Freddy Anderson doesn’t play great in that game, they win that game. So I Anyway, I think there’s a handful of games that you feel that way about this year for sure. Oh, their one regulation loss. If Jeremy Swayman isn’t awesome that day, the regulation score six. Yeah. Yeah. That’s That’s not even like, oh, they snuck into overtime and found a way to lose that one. That’s a They win that game. Yeah. Um, I would say the other thing that I don’t know that it’s unsustainable in the sense of I do think the ABS are a very very good 5v5 team this year, but you’re looking at the the some of the possession numbers, some of the positive flow rate that you’re seeing from them at 5v5 and you’re like, it’s probably not this good for the entire season. Yeah, I mean you look at their expected goals percentage right now, um 59.61 at 5v5 is comically high. Yeah. Uh that just for context is four whole percentage points higher than third place Tampa Bay. Outrageous. who they did outshoot last night. And to in my opinion, outside of the first five minutes of the game, outplayed pretty I’d say first 10, but yeah, for sure. Okay, I’m good with first 10. When I rewatched it this morning, it was the first couple where I was like, “Oh my god.” Yeah. And like the the Lightning had four high danger chances in the first period, and they all came in the first few minutes. It was like seven shifts in and you’re like, “Oh no, this is going to be a disaster. This is going to be the game in Tampa Bay last year where they scored eight and then the ABS completely locked it down, tilted the ice, and won that game.” Yeah. Weirdly, the power play bailed them out of that period. Not a feeling we’re used to this year. So, but also that’s the system working. It is. I have no problem. How can it be games? Yeah, there are going to be games where your 5v5 is a little lackluster. You need your special teams to be able to pick up the slack for you. Special teams number one reason in my opinion they won the game last night. Fantastic special teams performance. Agree. Their second period they also popped off. But it they were so good. It’s impressive how good the ABS have been at five on five. And I think the right mindset that you’re talking about Colorado with their five on five play is that it’s been so good that when it takes a step back, it’s still going to be really good, but it’s also not going to be this good for the entire year. It’s not um but also they are not playing a cupcake schedule. No, not by any You look at the top 15 teams. You look at the top 15 teams in the NHL right now in points and they’ve played two against Boston, one against LA, one against Carolina, one against Dallas, one against Vegas, two against Utah, two against New Jersey. That’s a lot of playoff teams. That’s most of their schedule. Yeah, you have a couple of Boston games and a San Jose game basically. Yeah, but Boston’s 14th in the NHL in points right now. Sure. Boston’s off to a good start. Like, we don’t think they’ll be there by the end of it, but they’re off to a good start. They’re 14th in the NHL. Yep. So, you’re you’re you’re talking about the only true bottom feeder that they’ve had has been San Jose, and it was a scheduled loss. Yeah. But they lost in overtime. Indeed. So it I don’t there are some I forget which website it was but if you go look up strength of schedule the ABS have one of the easiest strengths of schedule left in the season of of any team. That’s because their strength of schedule going into the through 14 games has been very high. Yeah. So worth noting on that front that the ABS have done some heavy lifting early in the year here. Um yeah, and it it’s also noting just on the I know it’s not like the point of what we’re talking about today, but um about their schedule is that they’ve I think they’ve had four one game home stands in a row. Yeah. And then they like come home for a game and then go play it back toback. It’s weird, right? And they’re doing it again right now. They’re in the midst of another one. And we’ve talked about this in the past. Uh when we had Eric on the show, he would talk about this where when you play one game at home, it’s essentially a de facto road game. It’s a different bed again because it’s just just a different bed, different building, and then you’re in and you’re out and you’re you’re off again. Yep. And it’s not the same as like, oh, hey, we’ve got a we’ve got a fiveame home stand, you know, and you’re just you’re just at home. You get into that rhythm and you rock and roll. But they have Yeah, it’s they came home, they played the game against Boston, then they hit the road. Game against Carolina, then they hit the road. The game against New Jersey, then they hit the road, and then last night and they hit the road. And then this month, for the rest of this month, they have five road games. Four of them are in are part of a backtoback. Their schedule is a bit silly. Yeah. Uh, sorry. How many did I say? They had five road games. Yep. Yeah. Five road games. All of them are Yeah, I believe it’s a back toback. Three of the next four weekends they have a backtoback. So, yeah, it is. Um, it all five of those games are part of a backtoback. Four of the five are all on the are like road backtobacks. One of them is they play in Minnesota then come home and play Montreal the next day. So like a lot of backtobacks, but they actually do the middle of this month they have a four-ame home stand. Anaheim, Buffalo, the Islanders, and New York. Three in one minimum. Yeah, you got to make on that. Absolutely. Yeah. Should really be 4 and0. Smoke all those all those teams. They all suck. Although I it’s been an interesting start to the season for Anaheim. You know, I don’t know that I Yeah. Oh, yeah. I bet we are. Uh, did want to wrap up this ABS conversation a little bit with you, AJ. Uh, I talked about it in my review, which by the way, go watch it. Go read AJ’s studs and duds from last night. Bunch of content on the game if that’s what you’re interested in. Yeah. How settled are we with the Colorado Avalanche depth? Obviously, your fourth line is Gavin Brinley’s injured. LOC is not back yet, but the ABS top nine of their forward core feels like you’re pretty set and forget at this point. And then your defense, yeah, you’re still needing Gerard back, but it certainly feels like a lot of stuff has fallen into place for Colorado. No, I feel good about it because your your fourth line, you’re right, it’s been a little they’re now doing the we’re rotating a guy out of the AHL just to see what he looks like. For my money, I thought Tristan Nielsen was bad last night. He had one decent forch check and that was it. I liked, you know, he led the ABS in hits last night with four. I thought that was awesome. Hits aren’t a real stat. Um especially in ball arena. Yeah. Uh they are a tough like you want to talk about rink factors with stat keeping uh the ads with hits. Yeah. Is is one of the big ones. But anyway, uh they’re doing that. They’re doing that like rotating that I I liked Taylor Macar a lot more than I liked Tristan Nielsen. This is a temporary problem. Uh Logan Oconor is going to be back at some point. You all Kibby Rona we hope is going to be back at some point. I say hope because truly we’ve heard nothing about Kibby. I mean just he was out indefinitely. Like Kevin Brinley should be back reasonably soon too. So Right. And all of those guys are guys that you really Brinley is of course the least proven of them. Yeah. But boy has he looked really good. We’re still we’re still using this, huh? Oh yeah. Uh and then and then Sam Gerard. Okay. Sam Sam Gerard will be back soon. So I think that some of the defense is going to be is going to settle down a little bit. And I’m really curious how they end up aligning everything. Yeah, it’ll be interesting. Man, Sam Molinsky looks so good. He does. He’s looked so good. Back on the right side, he has looked so good. And And yet the incredible outlet pass that he makes to Ross Coleman is on the left playing the left side. Yeah. Um Yeah, sure. It will be interesting. I I don’t know how it will 100% shake out, but you’re looking at a team that it feels a little bit Homer to say they’re the deepest team in the NHL right now, but I would certainly say top five. Why would that feel Homer? I haven’t done enough research into other teams depth to really like be picking through other teams fourth lines and making that decision. That’s all. That’s that’s man that’s fair. I respect um it does it it feels good. I would want to dig into some of the numbers because I know BICOV has been such a roller coaster. Yeah. Yeah. But you also know that if you get down to it, if they get healthy enough that a Kelly, Kivy, Ront, Loc, Gavin Brinley, whatever combination that they end up with those those guys on your fourth line is going to be really good defensively. And when you think about the ice time that that line can get, I I know Bartikov’s getting five minutes a night, whoever the Macar or Neielson’s getting five minutes a night. Parker Kelly played almost 14 minutes last night and you put LOC on that line and you know, yeah, sure, whatever. You put LC on that line, you know, that’s a guy Bedar is going to trust and play. And of these guys, Gavin Brinley had at least pushed himself up into that 9ishminute area where Bednar is not just straight up zero shifting him. He’s at least getting some ice time. And even as is, the ABS forward cores time on ice had been reasonably balanced, and that’s only going to get better as the ABS get healthy. Yeah, I really don’t have a lot of uh time on ice complaints this season. Yep. Kale Mar I would say the two guys that I’m a little uncomfortable with are Kale Mar and Brock Nelson and at times Brent Burns. Burns is one of those ride it when it’s good, but you got to maybe cut that off at times when you you see him struggling with his skating or something like that. But and with with Burns, it’s also the lack of trust in the Jackan, Iliov, all the one goal games. There are some factors that have played into it where it’s like you can understand how they got here. This isn’t stubbornness of just like I’m going to run this guy into the ground because I’ve got him. Yeah. Uh, we do need to take our first break of the show, just like you got to give Brent Burns some breaks sometimes. So, let’s get to our sponsors, including the official craft beer of DNVR, which is Breenriidge Brewery. You can check out their dozens of flavors. They’ve got seasonal ones that they rotate. They’ve got staples like the Avalanche Amber Ale, which I love. No matter what you’re looking for, they’ve got a beer that you’re going to like. So, jump in with them. Uh, you know, we love Bre here. 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AJ, it’s game 14 for the ABS. Obviously, there’s a lot of hockey left to go to really be making complete assumptions on any hockey team. But should the ABS be the president’s trophy winners from here? Yes. Me, too. I agree. I don’t know that they’re actually a 125 point team, but they should they should do the thing. Um, right now I think they’re probably going to be like 114 to 118 depending on how slow they want to take it at the end. Um, I think they’re unreal. I think that this is just them running it back the 2000 2001 apps. They’re they’re mad about Yeah, they’re they’re mad about a postseason loss to Dallas. They’re determined to get home ice advantage so that in case they have a game seven, they don’t have to go to somebody else’s barn to do it. Uh, and uh, they’ve got a 40-year-old defenseman that’s their gipper. So, it all adds up. This is the 01 abs all over again for me. Run it back. Uh, I don’t I don’t have a good meme for ABS 1.0, ABS 2.0 that I could put together there. So, we’ll we’ll call that one a miss for me. We’ll move on. AJ, when you’re looking around the league, you’re looking at competition for the Colorado Avalanche. There are some frauds and there are some gods of the NHL. Which side would you like to start on? Frauds. All right, we’ll start with frauds. We each have three teams we pick. Yeah, we both have Winnipeg. Uh, does Bailey have Winnipeg? Bailey sent in her pics. She’s sick today, so she’s out. But she did choose some pics. Oh, just show the whole stream all of our pics. Sorry. I don’t even I can’t even read those. I don’t know what that is. Yeah. No, I know. I’m just trying to read it and I literally can’t. Too far away. Uh, anyway, AJ has Winnipeg. I have Winnipeg. Uh, does Bailey have Winnipeg, Tiff? I don’t know. All right. So, we all have Winnipeg as frauds. Great. I mean, AJ, you want to take this one away or you want me to jump on it? Uh, do you want to start and then uh, you know? All right. Um, I’ll see if I have anything to add. I look, I’ll start with this. If Winnipeg is not going to be frauds, the one thing that could carry them out of this is absolutely Connor Hella in the regular season. Uh he is a guy that he might just go 40 games worth giving up two goals or less. He is that good a net for them at least in the regular season. That is an absolute option for Winnipeg. But when you look beyond that, uh pretty much everything about their process is bad. There there is very little to look at and go, “Wow, this is a sustainable winning process for Winnipeg.” Their offensive generation is terrible. They’re they’re riding entirely on finishing at a rate higher than they probably should and they’re getting away with it defensively because of Connor Hllabuck and and goalending ability. It’s not like they’re completely locking teams down like they have at times in the past where it’s this symbiotic relationship. It’s just they’re going to need Connor Hellbuck to carry that defense this year. And then you combine on top of that the opposite of the ABS when you look at their depth. when you’re looking at a team that is begging Jonathan Taves to pretend that he’s 25 again and be a 2C on a team in the NHL. And I know some of that is, you know, they’re they’re managing some injury stuff and and getting through that as a team, but they’re just less deep than they were last year in every aspect of their hockey team. And it it’s showing in their process, but it’s not showing in their record so far this year. Yeah. Um, you mentioned the injuries. That’s a really big part of this for me. Uh, Adam Lowry is back now. Yeah, I think he’s back a little bit earlier than was initially expected. Uh, and then Dylan Samberg on defense. Those are both bad losses and the fact that they’ve continued to steal games that they frankly haven’t deserved to win uh is huge for them because that’s them managing their injury issues. And if they get through those cleanly and they come out on the other side of it and then they actually their process is going to improve with Adam Lowry and Dylan Samberg, it’s going to improve. But right now we’re talking about a dot a bottom five process team. Yep. It’s bad. And like is is Adam Lowry and Dylan Samberg going to be enough to make that a 10 process team? It feels really unlikely to me. Uh, so I’m I’m I’m a little I’m skeptical. I’m skeptical on their ability to to improve that much. They have heavily heavily heavily relied on their top line, their power play, and as you mentioned, an unsustainable finishing rate. Yep. And great goalending. Like frankly, it’s it’s a pretty similar formula as last year, except last year their process was good. Yeah. It wasn’t President’s Trophy good, but it was good. It was genuinely they were a top top 10 generously top 10 team. Um, but they are they have not been that so far this year. They have not been that. And if if the central division hasn’t hadn’t been just such a like that that weak middle class hadn’t had such a tough start to the year like it’s been okay, right? Like it hasn’t there hasn’t been a ton of separation there. I think they’d be in more trouble. But I I really do I I’m I’m just waiting. I might die waiting for this to happen. But they’re they have to come back to Earth at some point, right? There’s no way that they’re going to they’re they’re going to go on three straight years of this. Now, again, their process is much worse than it has been the last couple of seasons, but Hella Buck is once again just doing Hellbuck things, and they are I I think they’re riding the Lightning a lot more than than the last couple of years. like they are they’re not I think they’re bum I they they are much closer to bum status than contender until they make a move or two. Regular season Winnipeg used to feel like wow they’re just smothering teams. You’re not going to get that many opportunities and the ones you do Hella Buck is going to be a wall against you. This year it feels more like they are barely surviving because Hellabuck is really good. Yeah. So and their power play. Yeah, fair enough. You just can’t you power play. They’re special teams. Yeah, they’re not losing the special teams battle, which makes it a lot easier for them to continue to get getting away with it or whatever you want to call it. Yeah. Yeah. They’re getting rocked at 5v5. Halleluck is bailing them out and their special teams are winning them games. Yep. Fraud number two. AJ, who you got? I don’t remember. Tiff, who do I have? Okay. Tiff has a plan apparently. Okay. We probably shouldn’t be doing this right now. Who what team is this? Okay. I did I have Utah in my frauds? I thought I I have Utah as a god, not as a fraud. I thought I had a different fraud, but obviously I don’t remember my own list because I did it at 4 in the morning. Uh yeah, Utah’s Yeah, I didn’t think so. I didn’t think so. I I will say I had Utah closer to fraud than God, though. Um yeah, I think I was torn on Utah. Uh, and some of this is that I had a hard time coming up with a third god team that I was really comfortable with, which is fair. Um, but I So, what I really like about Utah is that their the top of their lineup is really good and it’s been really good and it’s what’s driving them and their defense is missing Shawn Dery who is a yeah, top three guy for them. Um, I don’t know if he’s really a true top pairing guy. I It doesn’t really matter. It’s an interesting conversation with Simv now there. Like, and Sim and Simishv has been good. Yeah. To the shock of both of us. Simv has handled that job really well. Y and I I like I like so much of what I see out of Utah. And a big thing here is that they are built to play their style really well. We’ve seen that in previous seasons. But with the added if Logan Coulie’s breakout is for real, this Nick Schmaltz one I don’t think necessarily is for real. Yeah, probably not. Some early season sillies. But if the Logan Culie breakout is for real, then they’ve got they’ve got the goods at the top of their roster and a play style and a roster built to for that play style. And I think that’s a good combination for the regular season. Now, I think that they’re going to flame out in the postseason and it’s going to be like a they’re not deep enough to make a good like a big run. They’re gonna they’re going to scare the Jeepers out of somebody in round one. I’m not buying that they’re that team, but for the start of this season, this isn’t who I think is going to be there at the end of the year, right? This is to start this season. Who do I think has been a god? And I love what Utah has done. I think they’re a lot funner than they have been in previous years, but I do think when you go look at their process, some of their offensive scoring rates seem unsustainable. Yeah, if Logan Culie is for real, if some of the stuff from their top guys is for real, maybe you believe a little bit more there, but I don’t know that their scoring is going to continue uh the way that it has. And part of that comes into your depth conversation. I think their depth low-key sucks, at least their forward depth. Um, I agree with you. There’s a lot of guys that are going to struggle to produce at all in their in their bottom six. And then I don’t trust Carell Vamela at all. I Vamela is one where I I trust him. When we say trust, like what’s the expectation? Because I think he’s like the 20th best starter in the NHL where I’m like, he’s okay. Yeah. Like that’s I I don’t think he’s great. I don’t think he’s bad. I think he’s he’s fine. I I find him inoffensive as a as a starting goal. I don’t think he will hold them back, but he’s not going to do like what like if if their process was what Winnipeg’s process would be, they would be terrible. getting smoked and and that’s you combine that, right? Like if I believe their offense might take a bit of a step back and then you have the Milka, you could run into a problem there. That that’s where I’m at with the the fraudulent side of Utah. Um I think that’s fair. But it look honestly the only guy if if Barrett Hatton starts producing though maybe all of a sudden that offense becomes a little bit more sustainable for them. But AJ and I are Barrett Hayden haters. So I I just think that I just think that you’re looking at the teams in in the central. How have they been so far this year? Um, I think Utah and Dallas are interesting. Like, they’ve got their ups. Dallas has been a terrible 5v5. We’re going to have a conversation about Dallas. Yeah. So, okay, good. Um, I didn’t really know how to feel about them in this exercise of frauds versus gods where I’m like, I I don’t think they’re frauds, but yeah, I just I did not know how to feel about them, frankly. Um, but I I like what Utah has done so much more than I like what Winnipeg has done because I think Utah’s process has been Utah’s process has been so much better than what Winnipeg’s has been. I think especially defensively Utah has been quietly quite good. Again, I don’t know how sustainable their offense is, but we do need to take our second break of the show. So, let’s hit up our sponsors, including Monarch. 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So maybe you can hit up a couple of those and and we can enjoy making some money that way. With the bonus bets, it’s like betting with free money. You don’t care if you lose because it was free money. And if you win, cool. You have money. Win either way. Jump in. With the NHL, they do early payout offers. If your team gets up by three goals at any point in the game and you pick them to win, you get paid out. So you don’t have to worry about crazy comebacks hurting your bet. Uh jump in with them again. Bet 365. $200 in bonus bets when you sign up with code DNVR365 and bet $5. Win or lose. Of course, you must be 21 or older, physically located in Colorado, please gamble responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call or text 1800 gambler today. Third period of the DNVR Avalanche podcast. Yeah. Well, who’s who’s next on a fraud list? All right. Seattle. I pick Seattle as a fraud. And this might be a little bit cheating because they’re like third in the Pacific. It’s not like they’re super high up on lists as far as the team start to the season, but I think it’s pretty interesting because you can kind of compare their start to the ABS. The ABS are 81 and five to start the season. Seattle is, I believe, 62 and four. So, they’re kind of like the mini version of the ABS where they’re getting a bunch of games into overtime that they aren’t necessarily winning and picking up points that way. But then you look at their actual process. They’re scoring at one of the lowest rates in the NHL. They’re really struggling to to actually put the puck in the back of the net on a consistent basis compared to a lot of the other teams towards the top of the NHL. Uh their offensive process is pretty bad. Joey Dord’s been awesome. Almost scored a goal the other day, so they got that going for them. As long as Joey Dord is a top five goalender in the NHL, they’ve got a chance. But for a team that has I I still don’t know that Seattle has really found their identity as who they are and they’re relying on aging veteran depth that they feel fresh at game 12, but what happens when those guys get to game 60 and they’re starting to feel the wear and tear a little bit. I do have concerns about that. Um it it’s just a team that is playing over their head from everything I’ve seen so far this year. Okay. I would agree with you. Um again, their process hasn’t been very good and it just feels like they’re Joey Decord is the only reason that we’re having this conversation at all. Yeah. Um and if if Joey Decord’s game slips even this much, even this much, they’re frauds. Yeah. Yeah. They’re done. It It’s That’s not a good hockey team. A pretty consistent metric across the NHL is a If you have a good goalie or great goalie performance on a bad team, high indicator that they’re frauds, unless the goalie is actually that guy. Yeah. And I think it helps them standingswise just look like looking at the overall standings that they Pacific sucks, dude. Right. The Pacific is just like who do you feel good about there out there? Like I I feel great about Vegas being a a good team. Eventually Edmonton will be a good team. They always start slow. Yeah. Yeah. Like it’s I feel very comfortable with that. But it like Seattle I just Okay, they’re they’re a team bums, dude. Yeah, I think they’re bums. I I think that’s a fair a fair way to say it. And and you mentioned that they’re like a mini version of the ABS with the with all the OTLs, but they’ve played 12 games. They’re six and six. Yeah, true. So, you know, the ABS the ABS have played 14 have played 14 games. They’re eight and six. So, it’s not like the ABS are like, “Oh, they’re so much better.” But they are. Yeah. Go look at the process and tell me they’re not so much better. I’ll put it to you that way. Yeah. Seattle with some of the best goalending in the league is at a zero goal differential. Colorado’s up plus 13. That speaks for itself on that front. Uh you you did bring up with talking about how weak the Pacific is. AJ, is the future bright for Colorado for some of this? When you look at the East versus the West, the Eastern Conference doesn’t have a single team below 500. The West has some Yeah, it’s ridiculous. But the West has I don’t want to call them gimmies cuz you have to go out and win every single night, but maybe some easier opponents for the ABS across the course of the season cuz you play in your own conference in your own division a little bit more. Do I need to put on my shady Rays for for some of this upcoming stuff for the ABS? Yes. Let’s go. Uh go do it. The ABS future this season again mentioned they’re going to have some good scheduling coming their way. I know it’s a little bit crazy at the back to backs right now, but later in the season, they don’t have a on a road trip longer than four games for the rest of the year, I believe. And they have a a couple of five, six, seven game home stands. So, a lot of bright stuff in the future. Make sure you are going and getting your shady rays so you’re not staring into the bright sun as the future comes to you. Uh, of course, you can head to shadyrays.com and use code dnvr to get 35% off any pair of polarized sunglasses with shady rays. That bright future for the ABS though may not be a bright future for some of our frauds on this list. Uh as we can look at the full list there. Uh AJ, you have Anaheim. I’m in I’m in full agreement and I know I I want to get your thoughts on this because you were you were picking Anaheim as a sneaky Darkhorse playoff team in the preseason and I think it that’s still a fair conversation to have, but they’re clearly not as good as they’ve played to start this year. Yeah, they’re such a fascinating team because uh what they’re doing offensively is awesome. They’re they’re playing lights out. Leo Carlson looks awesome. Uh they’re playing at the top of their game. They’re generating a lot of chances. They’re a legitimately dangerous offensive team. They have a great goalender and Lucas Dustall. Defensively, they’re terrible. Yep. It’s a roller coaster, which is crazy when you look at that defense and you’re like, “Oh, all those first round picks, all the talent that they have back there, they’re awful.” Well, defensively, they’re awful, man. Like, they’re not good. And a lot of those forwards that I really like what they’re doing offensively need to get back. They need to back check a little bit because right now there’s not a lot of help going on. It is like like like Andrew brunette and Joel Quimville switched bodies. It so weird to watch to It’s just just so weird to watch a Ducks team coached by Quimville be like a runand gun defensive civ. Just awful. Yep. But offensively they’re making up for it and they have such a great starting goalender that those here they are. And again when you’re when you’re in a bad division Yeah. you know you’re gonna be they’re going to be in contention. Yep. Um, and I I just don’t think that they’re going to be a 700 hockey team. I I think that they’re in for a crash eventually, but they have been a lot more fun than I expected them to be. I thought they were going to be blah. I thought they were going to be really blah, and instead they’re they’re fun. Let me ask you this, cuz you have Anaheim, Bailey has Pittsburgh, and I have Detroit, which are all three teams that have had a better thanex expected start. Which of those three do you think is the most legit? Anaheim. Okay, fair enough. Yeah, I think I think Pittsburgh I I have not understood what is going on there. Me neither. If Ganny Malin turning back the clock has really helped if I’m being honest, I just don’t trust that to continue. Um, so I’m like I’m not even buying that I would consider. I looked at him and I was like, I feel like it’s such an obvious pick for a fraud that I’m glad Bailey did it. So, it’s on the list, but not one that’s super interesting. Sure. Yeah, exactly. Like, it’s it’s like Yep. Fraud. Total fraud. Yep. Uh Detroit. Detroit. I’m I’m worried that all my open hating of Detroit over the years is going to finally come back to burn me because their process has been pretty good. uh they’re getting a lot of they’re getting balanced scoring. Their defense is is but it’s it’s not a roster built for any kind of long-term success because they’ve invested in so many old baddies. But so are you really going to keep Steve Ierman’s just trying to keep his job at this point and this is the type of season that maybe that that happens. I I love that you’re calling them frauds though. I I’m not because I just don’t want to have to eat those words later and admit that they’re good. I mean, shout out to homie Micah, but are you really going to keep getting quality process from a seventh round pick whose name is EMTT Finny and should actually be in a coal mine somewhere? Like, oh my god, somebody in my in my fantasy hockey league picked him up and I was like, who the what? And then I went looked and I was like, what is this? Is this just like one of those like 12, 13 game stretches that a team goes through? you just happen to have it at the beginning of the year and you’re like, “Oh, maybe they’re good.” I I don’t know. We’ll see. I I think they’re a lot more mid than they are good. But I don’t think they’re horrible. I would put it that way. Yeah. I didn’t think they were horrible coming into the year either. Like I didn’t think they were going to bottom out. I think that this is just on the upper end of their of their ability. It’s a good way to put it. And anytime I can call Detroit frauds, I’m taking it. I don’t care if I’m wrong. The You want to talk about a team also that has benefited a lot from where their team uh where their division has gone. Like Tampa Bay such a slow start. Toronto had looked bad. You have a bunch of teams scrapping around 500. Yeah. Florida is LA is in last place. Now, of course, they’re 66 and one. So, it’s not like, oh my god, they’re bad. It’s just such a crazy division right now. Um, and then my other my other fraud, this is the one that I told you I’d win in a different direction with is is Ottawa because I think Ottawa I think Ottawa is a good team that is getting dragged down by horrible goalending and as soon as Lionus Olmark figures it out, they’re going to be good. I still have them making the postseason. I still have them being dangerous. I really like that team. Uh Jake Sanderson, uh Thomas Shabbat, they rock. And I I look at that roster and I go, they’re good. It’s a good team. That’s a good team. They just need Omar to stop a damn puck. They feel so much like last year’s ABS to me where before all the changes. Yep. Last they they look to me like last year’s abs. top end talent, great defense uh at the top, solid some like solid depth pieces. You just need your goalender to stop betraying everything that you’re doing. It’s Look, I’m a filthy American, so I lump all the Canadian teams together, but it did feel like over the last couple of seasons, I kind of put Ottawa and Montreal into the same category. Last year, they’re both teams trying to turn the corner, get back into the playoffs. They made some moves to to make themselves a young quality team. Um, but we watched what Montreal have done this season to start and they’ve been great and you’ll notice we didn’t put Montreal in our frauds at all and then you see what Ottawa has done to start the season and you’re like there’s a difference here. These these do not look like teams in similar spots at this moment. Yeah. Yeah. Which is interesting because I like Ottawa’s I think Ottawa has played better than Montreal. Montreal still has a lot of this late game magic that’s going on that’s carrying them. Demodov and Caulfield have been real fun in overtime. I mean I mean Demidov is just he’s a great rookie and Caulfield’s game has gotten even better. Uh I joked over the summer that I don’t know that he’s ever won one puck battle in his NHL career. He definitely has now. Uh and and Slavoski looks solid. Like they they whole roster I think is just the addition of Doppson has has really and and and the continued maturation of some of their young guys. I think that they’re legit. I don’t think that they’re division winning legit, but I I think that they’re a playoff team. I thought that coming in. I I love what they’re doing and they’ve got that like they believe in themselves thing going for them. They’re never out of a game. Yeah. They they don’t get down. They don’t get punched in the face, right? Like they’re just like, “Okay, great. I’m I’m rolling. I’m all I love what the Canadians are doing.” Um, and I would like for them to continue doing it because I would feel very validated in my entire summer of love for them. Yep. We do need to get into our gods conversation. And, uh, I also do still want to talk about Dallas a little bit, even if they’re not on any of our lists. Yeah. But we do need to take another ad break here uh as we need to shout out the official vehicle of DNVR and that is Toyota. Uh jump in with Toyota. Go get with them. They have a vehicle for everyone, whether it be SUVs, sedans, trucks, or anything in between. They’ve got 17 different models with all-wheel drive or four-wheel drive like the Epic 4Runner. They offer more low and zero emission vehicles combined than any other automaker, even including hybrids like trucks. The Tundra I Force Max. Yeah, you can get a hybrid truck through Toyota. They’ve got SUVs that take command on the road or on the trail so you can explore the road less traveled. Whatever it is, get your next vehicle from Toyota. 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And if something goes wrong and you need to cancel your season rental, you can book with peace of mind. Enjoy risk-f free booking booking with cancellation before your season rental pickup date. I’ve used Christie for my entire life as my family has skied in Colorado forever. The coolest part is you can get 20% off your season rentals when you book online at the link in the comments and use code DNVR20. So get down to that link and use the DNVR20 code. Of course, you must book season rentals online to get the discount and book by November 23rd. Outside is better with expert service and advice in every Christy store. Final period of the DNVR Avalanche podcast here. Uh let’s talk about Dallas before we get into our God conversations cuz yeah, we all have Colorado. Big deal. We talked about them already. Uh Dallas. Exactly. Uh what is Dallas this year? They’re they’re a Yeah, they’re hard for me to figure out right now. Yeah, they’re strange. Uh their 5v5 play is horrible. Yep. Genuinely, it’s not good. Uh yes, they’re missing Rupe Hints, but if you’re talking about a team that was uniquely qualified, like uniquely constructed to lose their topline center, this was it. Yep. And they look bad. They are surviving on goalending and power play. Like Nico Rantin has been almost a complete no-show at even strength. He was great last. Yeah, exactly. Like, oh, he has a he has a multi-point day. Uh great. He had his great game of the week. Expected goals for a point one in that multi-point day, by the way. Oh, yeah. Of course. Uh and then missed the net and in the shootout. Miko’s such a such a freak of of an experience. Like he’s one of the most fun players to watch every game because you just absolutely do not know what you’re going to get. Yep. Can’t with that guy. Uh and such unbelievable talent on top of all of it. Like I Anyway, love Mo. Anyway, uh Dallas is not Mo. Mo is not Dallas. They they are much more than that. Yeah, they’ve had some injury issues. Uh but uh frankly, they just haven’t played very well. How much of it is Galutes and systems? Some of it. Um yeah, some of it. Yeah, but he’s not new he’s not anywhere near as good a coach as Pete Dbor. I mean, that’s So, there’s some adjustment. There’s some adjustment going on there. There’s uh you know again you’re missing you’re missing rupe hints and uh what uh Niles Lungquist on your back end but like they were missing Miles Lungquist last year too. I mean their decor is running into the predictable issues that you knew they were going to have on the right side. Yeah. And and the Jamie Ben injury is such an interesting one because how good is he anymore coming off of an absolute like he was so bad in the postseason that it was like fair to wonder oh my god is he like done done like is this the end for Jamie Ben? So I don’t know what kind of guy they’re missing there. Yeah. Um, like I don’t know what kind of caliber of player he is anymore, but even if he’s just a 30 to 40 point player, yeah, that hurts. That can’t be a dagger to your lineup, though. Like the ABS the ABS missing Ross Colton suddenly now they’re no good, right? You know, like I it’s it’s an interesting question and we’ve talked about we talked about it all summer that the bottom of their roster is just nowhere near as good. Yes. You mentioned the defensive problems that they have. U half of their defense is unbelievable. Hasten, Lindell, Harley, unimpeachable, they’re exceptional. And the the other half of it is truly at this moment bad. Yep. And I think Liam Bishell’s going to be really good someday. He’s not quite there yet. Uh and and Ilia Leouchkin, um Alexander Petravic, like those are guys that we know. Those are sevens. Those are guys that shouldn’t be in your lineup every day. Those are those are bottom of the lineup at best types of dudes. And and like Niles Lenquist is a guy that just never really lived up to it. Like that’s we’re talking about that as your big injury. Like it’s got to be Ruf Hints is is your big piece that you’re missing on offense. He is your 1C. But again, this was a team that at center, Wyatt Johnston, Tyler Sean, Matt Duchain, they’ve got a couple of guys that they could put in into that spot and be reasonably effective. And Jason Robertson’s been unreal. Yeah, been great. He looks awesome. He’s been their best player uh at forward. But Dallas being a topheavy team is a new look for them. It’s so weird that Colorado and Dallas have flip-flopped. Yeah. Now Dallas is totally reliant on power play to bail them out. It’s their top couple of guys that are doing all the heavy lifting and their depths arguably sucks. Y and now Colorado, you’re looking at it and you’re going, “Yeah, their top end guys are are doing a great job, but their depth is fantastic.” Elite. Yeah. Uh we do need to get into our gods as we are running out of time here. I ped Colorado and then I had New Jersey. I think what we’ve seen out of New Jersey to start this year is yeah, are they playing wicked hot? Is there some questions around Jacob Marstrom? I think so. But this is a team that it’s felt like they’ve been flirting with this conversation for the last couple of years uh of taking that next step into being ah they’re a fringe playoff team. They’ll get in, but they don’t make a lot of noise. It’s time. The way New Jersey has started this season, I think is a statement that they are ready to be a real contender in the East and their offensive process is awesome. They have a ton of amazing offensive talent. Jack Hughes obviously a baller, but Yesper Brat continues to be awesome for them. Uh you go down their lineup and you have so many quality pieces. It’s it’s a fun team to watch. The their brand of hockey is really really fun. Yeah. Uh and defensively they are still trying to sort through it. It’s an adventure sometimes. For sure. Yeah. But when they when their offense is really clicking, they rock. Yep. And I don’t I don’t think I’m as high on them um as both you and Bailey are. Apparently, I’m I’m a little iffier on I I think they’re really good. Yep. But maybe not great. Yeah. Yeah. I I guess I’m just still on the like Jack Hughes and Yesper Brat. Like those guys are the real deal for sure. There’s no like like But are they any better that like Nicoir is great at what he does. What’s different though? And I just I I I just see kind of the same formula for them. Uh I don’t know that there’s a lot different. I don’t think that they’re so much better than they have been in the past. They feel very sy to me, which is a big reason I’m just not buying it. I’m I’m They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re They’re good. I just don’t love them. I would I would say it’s fair to say they are a team that has to do it in the playoffs now, right? Oh, definitely. Yeah. And yeah, I do think there is some syiness there, but I think this is a team that is talented enough to they’re going to be really fun for this entire regular season. And then if they lose in the first round, they’re going to have some serious questions, but if they can take that next step in the playoffs, which version of Jacob Marstrom are they going to get? Because if they get the one that they saw that the ABS saw him, they’re in big trouble thing for sure. Uh if they if they get the guy that has been there quite a bit in his career, they’re going to be fine. They’re gonna be a really hard out. I like them. Uh they’re they’re deep. Like there’s a lot to like about Jersey. I’m just not I guess I guess there’s just something about them that I’m like I it’s tough to put my finger on exactly why I’m not super buying it. You got to make your picks at some point. AJ, who is your last god tier? Great question. Oh, it was Montreal. There you go. We did talk about them a little bit already, but yeah, already mentioned them, so Yep. Which is good because we have very little time. Yeah. Uh, Montreal, a great start to the season. No argument there. Looks like Bailey had Montreal as well. So, that’s actually all of our god tiers because I wasn’t really willing to put a third team down in the god tier. Um, not that Montreal. Yeah, I know. I I broke my own rules. Not that Montreal isn’t fun and had a great start to the season. I do think there’s a little bit of unsustainability there as we talked about with what they’re doing in overtimes and stuff. The same way the ABS can’t lose every overtime, Montreal can’t win every overtime that they end themselves up in, which I guess they lost literally last night in overtime. So, um, I I One team for your consideration would should be Carolina. They’re missing half of their defense and they are still awesome. I thought about putting Carolina in there, but I was like, let’s not. Let’s wait till their defense gets healthy and then we can talk about how good they are. Um, also Carolina’s playing all their games on the road. True. They’ve had a big long bunch of road games actually. Yeah, they’re eight to four. Yep. Road versus home. Uh, the other team that I thought about putting in here that I I would get roasted for if I did, but the Florida Panthers, I understand they are presently last by points in the East, but for a team that’s missing multiple major pieces. Their underlying process has actually been quite good this year, and they’re kind of doing what the ABS did last year where it’s like, let’s just survive the first half of the season, we get Kachchuck back, and then we can start figuring things out on the year. I think they’re better than their record. Yeah, I’m with you. Okay, I’m glad you agree. Don’t let them off the mat. Everybody else out east, don’t let them off the mat. They’re going to come for you if you do. If they get back up, you’re in trouble out there. So, yep. Uh we are headed into overtime. Conversation continues online at the dnvr.com. Uh join us over there. Also, you know, great times to support us. We’ve been having lots of fun on the watch alongs this year. If you want to become a supporters club member, get access to those emojis in the YouTube chat and and be part of the fun, you can do that. It also gets you access to behind the scenes stuff on YouTube if you want to check out that stuff. Uh yeah, it’s I’ve been having a lot of fun this NHL season. I don’t know if that’s just me and my mental state this year, but it’s been fun. It it really helps though that the the ABS are really fun every single day. They’re really good and like five overtime losses. Like you and I have spent years they lose a game in overtime and we both just go, “All right, okay.” Just kind of like shrug it off, you know? We’re like, “Whatever, dude.” Yep. Whatever. We don’t care much about those. Those are coin flips right now. They don’t feel like 50/50 coin flips. It feels like a Nathan McKinnon face off. Double-sided coin for sure. Yeah. Like it’s it’s it’s fine, but like the way that they’ve played these games, how good their depth has been, and like you look at individual point paces and you’re like, “Oh, this guy’s not good. That guy’s not good.” But some of them are pretty good. The whole of the process for their depth is so good. Yeah. You look at you look at what the the lines as constructed are doing. And like Colorado’s best line last night was Brock Nelson’s line. I pretty much picks up kind of an anonymous assist and nobody’s going to talk about it, but like getting it going. He’s got three points in his last what, four games, five games. Like it’s Yep. Three in his last five. Same with Ross. Three in his last five. Like Yeah. Like that stuff has to continue. Absolutely. But Nushkin’s gone a little bit dark for a couple games production-wise. Yeah. He’s played quite well in my opinion. He’s been a monster on the ball. But like but but then okay, now Victor Olivesson has 12 points in 14 games. like you just looked up and you’re like, “Oh,” and so that guy’s on a 70 point pace still. All right, that’s something. Particularly since they made that swap and dropped Landy to the third line, your middle six has been so good. Yeah. Everything. Even on nights where it’s like, well, you didn’t get the production, but oh, they had a 70% Corsy4 tonight. Like they they were working the other team over in that regard. for it. You get some mixed lines at times, but everyone is finding ways to produce and your third line is arguably the best third line in the league right now. Like they’re fantastic and like you want to see some production out of Landy for sure. You want to see another drop, but yeah. But yeah, I mean Jack Drury’s on point uh on on pace right now for a 30point season. It’s a little lower than you want out of a 3C, but it’s not far off. We’re talking like a good week here. bumps that up. Yep. Victor Olivesson will slow down. Although him being on the top power play unit will help that but V even so Victor Olivesson seven of his 14 points are at even strength. Yep. So even if you take away that power play production like he’s he’s still doing what you want to see. Uh Ross Colton as you mentioned he now six points in 14 games. Like he’s rolling right along. 40point guy. Ross Cole’s a 40point guy. Just finds his way. Doesn’t matter. Doesn’t matter his role. doesn’t matter his linemates. He just honest just just who he is. He’s so reliable, so good. And you know, defensively, Brent Burns, Sam Bolinsky, each have six points. Yep. It’s It’s So, you’ve got It’s good. You’ve got three defenseman right now that are on 40 point paces. Seems good. You also have Taves has three points in his last four games. And I Right. It I don’t know. I sometimes he’s going to finish with 40 points. He just He’ll just find his way to it. He’s He plays with the best players. He’ll get there. He’s too good. He makes too many good plays with the puck. Like, he’s he’ll get there. It’s It’s remarkable. You You talk about it’s been a fun season. It has been a fun start to the year, but how much of that is just because there’s there’s no like major abs drama here. Yeah, it was like a lot. The one like jinned up thing was like the Natches contract stuff and it’s over. Done. Yep. Done. finished is is we’re done with it. And the like like injuries have been a small part of it because they’re always going to be a part of it, but it hasn’t been season derailing. It hasn’t been every single day this is the story. Yep. It’s it’s been solid. Yeah. And the team is just genuinely fun to watch. Truly, it’s been really fun hockey. Uh hopefully it continues. We do got to wrap up the show. We appreciate everyone hanging out. We’ll have another off day show for you tomorrow. Maybe we’ll dig a little bit more into some of the ABS things. But that’s going to do it for today. This has been the DNVR Avalanche podcast presented by Bet 365. And we will talk to you tomorrow. [Music] [Applause] [Music]

One month into the NHL season the Colorado Avalanche are the number one team in the league. Which NHL teams can keep up? Whose success is legit and who are the frauds of the NHL?

Intro – 0:00
Are the Avs legit? – 1:00
Is the depth settled in? – 12:00
Running it back? – 18:45
Winnipeg – 20:20
Utah – 25:49
Seattle – 34:25
Anaheim – 39:31
Detroit – 42:15
Ottawa – 44:16
What is Dallas? – 49:19
New Jersey – 54:22
Montreal – 57:29

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