Is the best yet to come? Some data suggests the Red Wings are UNDERPERFORMING despite the hot start

Is the best yet to come? Some data suggests the Red Wings are UNDERPERFORMING despite the hot start

Today on lockdown Red Wings, Detroit is nine and4 and tied for first in the Atlantic Division. But is the best still yet to come? You’re Locked on Red Wings, your daily podcast on the Detroit Red Wings, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Welcome back to the Locked On Red Wings podcast. We are your hosts, Brian Fischer and Scotty Bentley, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. And you can find us wherever you get your podcasts. Scotty, we got an off day today and we’ll of course wrap up the episode by talking about the Golden Knights, the final episode or the final game of this long road trip. Today with the extra time, I want to kind of take a look at the quick snapshot that has been the Red Wings season so far, 13 games, nine wins, four losses, and talk about why while they’re winning and they’re playing hot, they’re actually not they may not even be playing to their fullest potential yet still. So, they’re underperforming what some data suggests, which is a good thing when you’re a nine and four hockey team because that means the best could be yet to come. Uh, we’ll talk about that on today’s episode. Before we can get to that though, got to let you guys know today’s episode is brought to you by Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code locked on NHL for $20 off your first purchase. Scotty, the Detroit Red Wings are tied top the Atlantic Division. Technically, they’re I they’re second place by points percentage because the Montreal Canadians has played one fewer games and lost one fewer game by consequence. But the Red Wings sit there with 18 points right at top the division, right at top the Eastern Conference. Of course, every single team in the Eastern Conference has a points percentage above 500 right now because it is an insane We were worried about the Atlantic Division. The whole conference apparently wants to uh make it difficult this season, but the Redskins are playing well, right? in some games better than others, but you like you look to the game on Sunday where they won three to2 in a shootout and I think that game’s almost a perfect example of kind of what I want to get at with this conversation in which the Red Wings pretty much dominated that game by shot attempts, by actual shots, by expected goals, right? The winnow meter said they would have won 75% if those that game had been played a thousand times and they had like 65% of the total shots, expected goals, blah blah blah blah blah, but they only won 3 to2 in a shootout. And it’s kind of the perfect point I want to make when I talk about the data and that the Red Wings at 9 and four could still be playing better and there is some information and analytics that suggest that that is possible. And now, okay, unless you want to add anything in here before I begin, I can lay it out here for you. No, please. I I I mean, this is, you know, the main event of the evening. So, you uh you you take it away and and lay out everything. I It is It is interesting. I think it’s an interesting conversation to have because I think that there are there are I don’t want to say pros and cons, but like there’s stuff to take away from it and there’s stuff maybe not to. I I think it’s a it’s an interesting outlook on the season so far. For sure. Well, and it’s funny because I’m going to lay all this out and when I wrap it up, I’m going to say something that we have said before and you’re going to go that makes sense. So, the Detroit Red Wings at five on five and I want to I want to make this aware. This is all at five on five. So take that data with that in mind. They are 10th in the NHL at shot attempt share. That is Corsy for percentage. But shot attempt share I think is a more easily consumable way of understanding it. It is the amount of times it is the amount of shot attempts your team takes versus the shot attempts against your team faces at five on five. And the Red Wings have a percentage of what is it here? 52%. With that number, you want to be over 50% in general. The Red Wings have the 10th best at 52%. Their expected goals, which then takes those shot attempts and tries to weight them based on where they occurred on the ice. And this data is all pulled by natural static. So sometimes expected goals, especially is a little different from sight to sight. But in according to natural static at five on five, the Red Wings expected goals percentage is seventh in the NHL at five on five, which gives them an expected uh which is a 53.6% amongst the top 10 in the NHL in expected goals for verse against. That is an incredible number that the Red Wings have been able to continually kind of have the advantage in that. It that showcases again that they’re not just getting the quantity, but they are getting high quality number of chances as well. There is a little bit of a a cumulative factor with that as well because every single shot attempt is assigned an expected goal number. So, if you vastly out attempt your opponent, of course, you’ll have a higher number of expected goals. But of course, the grade A chances attribute more to it than you know your shots from along the board. But the Red Wings are seventh where their shot attempts are 10th when it comes to expected goals. They’re nine and four. You would think, okay, 9 and four. That makes sense that those numbers are very high. their actual goals percentage, not shot attempts, not expected goals, their actual goal share, goals for vers goals against, ranks 28th in the NHL, Scotty, with a goals for percentage of 44%. You’re probably sitting there and wondering now, how is that a good thing if you’re the Detroit Red Wings? What that says to me is the Red Wings are winning despite bad luck. that their expected goal share and some people could interpret this differently but the way I’m interpreting this and I could be an idiot. I am an idiot. But the way I’m interpreting this is that the expected goal share is showing you Red Wings should be performing way better in the goals for verse against category than they currently are. Which means they are winning hockey games with bad luck, which means they are underperforming at a points percentage of 697, which means to me the best is yet to come. And but wait, there’s more. Scotty, give you the old uh the old They’re 31st in PDO, which is essentially the luck statistic. Uh basically takes your shooting percentage and your save percentage. The Red Wings are 31st in PDO at five on five with a PDO that comes in at nine 96% 97%. Now, that is a number that historically has always come back to 100, whether you’re above or you’re below at any point in the season. Some teams break that mold. The Vancouver Conucks of a couple of seasons ago finished the season with a PDO of like 1-1, which is incredible, but most of the time it comes back to level. This is another indicator that while the Red Wings are nine and four, they’re actually getting bad luck throughout the early season here and could have more left in the tank and the best could be yet to come. And they’re 24th in the league at five on five shooting percentage, which means when they’re taking shots, they’re just not finding the back of the net. So, Scotty, when I say all this to you, how how does that come across to you? Like, does that does that not give you a glimmer of hope that they could even still be better yet? So yes and no. So hear me out. I I I think look I I am obviously the host of Locked on Tigers as well. I’m very integrated in uh you know advanced baseball analytics as well as now hockey as it’s become a lot more popular over the last few years. And like nobody loves a good data point like I do, okay? I’m I’m not I’m very very far from uh anti-analytics. I think they’re a fantastic tool. Uh and and it’s all about just knowing what they’re saying. And I think that in this case this is this is something that is a a positive because it means that they are playing a very maybe consistent isn’t the right word because we have seen some games where they’ve just completely yeah but like they are over the course of what 13 games they are nine and4 for and they are playing a good brand of hockey. They are playing the they are executing for the most part the way that they want to. Now, in the same breath, I think it’s important to realize what a lot of those numbers mean. And I think that a lot of the concerns that we have had for the Wings up to this point don’t necessarily uh that they are in line with those numbers and they back those those complaints or worries and there’s not exactly a guarantee that they fix themselves. One of the biggest ones is finishing and that is a a statistic that you know you bring up all these analytics that’s awesome that they’re getting opportunities. Okay, that is step one, right? If if you’re mapping out the road to a successful offense, you start with let’s make sure we are getting opportunities. And the Lone style was not that. It was it was not to create opportunities or consistently create opportunities at least. It was to prevent opportunities for correct team. It was low event hockey, right? This is a lot more aggressive and faster pace and you the Wings in almost every game. There’s only I I think two games I can think of off the top of my head so far this year where I’ve really felt like they were just not getting opportunities the entire game and they still won one of them. So like th that that is awesome that they are in a position where they’re consistently applying pressure, getting the puck in the offensive zone and getting good opportunities to score. However, just because they are getting good opportunities to score doesn’t necessarily guarantee that they are ever going to consistently put the puck in the back of the net with those opportunities and take advantage of set opportunities. That is not a promise. Now, it’s easier to make to to score when you have good opportunities than when you don’t, obviously, but it that’s still not a guarantee. You can have opportunities and not score in the game of hockey. And I think that’s important to remember. There’s another point that I want to bring up as well, but I know we got to get to a break break, and I don’t want to have uh, you know, 18 minute uh into the show first ad break. Well, well, don’t worry. the actual data element for those people who don’t dislike the data. That’s done. We’re now we’re into the full conversation bit. You did mention the finishing too. That was the word. And I I want to add on to that in segment two of lockdown reading. So stay tuned. 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Code lockdown NHL for half off your first year. Segment two, lockdown Red Wings podcast. Yes, Scotty. big question I was going to ask you after my first question which you know you then flowed very naturally into answering it before I could get there was why did you think that there is such a discrepancy between expected results and the actual results and the actual results are question right same the the the results are they’re up nine and four but it’s a lot closer than the data is saying it should be it was finishing and that was something that we’ve harped on quite a bit wings have been put in so many opportunities early on in the season to score goals that they’ve missed on. And I can think of so many off the top of my head. Again, that’s why I said at the beginning of the show that San Jose game yesterday or Sunday rather is the prime example of what I’m talking about. A game in which the Red Wings dominated the stat sheet all game long, but only one by one goal because EMTT Finny had five shot attempts in that game. All five of them reg registered at scoring chances. He had a 64, I believe, expected goals all by himself, but he didn’t score. You know, how many times has Andrew Cop had a puck come to him in a great A opportunity in the slot and he’s either hit the side of the net where the net was wide open were just fanned on it alto together. The Red Wings are putting themselves in great opportunities or how all the shot attempts that Alex de Brinket took to start the season before he finally found his scoring his scoring stroke. So, that is really where the discrepancy shows to And again, the team’s shooting percentage at five on five was bottom 10 in the league. And that’s because they struggle to finish those shots. So that you got you got to it there. And that’s 100% why I think that these numbers are such a vast discrepancy. You brought up a good point in that expected goals is great. You can see that they should be playing better, but it doesn’t mean a whole heck of a lot until those pucks find the back of the net. And while I do believe the other shoe will drop to some degree, pucks will start finding the back of the net a little bit more consistently, there’s not a guarantee that that happens either. So while player Well, yeah. No, and but like what I’m just trying to say, like cat is not going to shoot 2% this year, but like she’s doing right now, which is crazy. At the same time, you know, I I don’t you know, I I don’t think Larkin was on pace for like 50 goals at one point a few games ago. like I don’t think that’s going to happen either. So like I I I think there’s there there’s yeah water will find its level a little bit with that kind of stuff, but in the same breath there there is no guarantee that Andrew Cop, you know, turns around and and starts putting the puck in the back of the net more consistently. There is no guarantee that JT Comfort is a consistent depth score. There is like there’s a lot of guys in the bottom six that that is very far from a guarantee from. So, I I think that that’s a a very articulate point to bring up when having this conversation. The second one that I wanted to bring up was goalending. And and while I’m not here to like bash the goalending or say that it’s terrible or anything, um the Wings are in the bottom, I believe it’s eight, eight or nine in the entire NHL just in goals against a game, which is very simple and and not a super advanced statistic, and we’ve had certainly some really good performances. Um but in terms of the uh the the production they have received just on a very base simple level of safe percentage and goals against average they find themselves in the bottom third of the league in both of those stats. And so it’s another thing where, you know, obviously we talked about the finishing that is something that it it could end up fixing itself and this could be a really really effective team that gets a lot of opportunities and it’s a really good offense. It’s also just all I’m saying is it’s not a guarantee. Not that it won’t happen, just it’s not promised. And I think that that’s a similar conversation with the goalending, right? It’s I I I would like to think that the goalending will end up grading out better than what it has so far. Talbbit’s I mean season has been pretty respectable. He’s got a save percentage around 900. Gibson I think is is certainly if you include the opening night game like his stats aren’t spectacular and there’s a little bit left to be desired in that regard. We talked about how we didn’t think he looked very good against Anaheim. If you want him to be the true bellcow to the net, then he’s going to have to just straight up, you know, put up better numbers than what he’s done so far. But that’s not uh impossible to fathom, right? Like you you acquired him for a reason. You have expectations that he will do that. Um I just again I I’m not sure I would plant a flag on on November 4th and say that it’s a guarantee either. That’s the the only bit of nuance I want to throw into those numbers is just they’re great. They’re awesome. they tell a story and that’s that the wings are getting more opportunities than we have ever been used to since you and I have started hosting this show uh at five on five. However, it is also not a like guarantee of oh just because these numbers are this definitely means that the wings will get even better than what they’ve already done because I I think there’s just again a lot of nuance in that conversation. Yeah, and there is nuance in that goalending conversation too because the the team save percentage at five on five is 29th in the league uh for the Detroit Red Wings and that is at uh what now 88 and a half% so that you know 888 point85 save percentage for the Detroit Red Wings at five on five but it’s you can’t blame the goalies with just save percentage that’s why goal saved above expected was was invented. Sometimes you give up a ton of great a chances. You look at the game against the Montreal Canadians or, you know, uh, the game against Anaheim or even the two goals against San Jose on Sunday. You know, there were a lot the game against Anaheim, I think John Gibson was straight up pretty poor. So, it’s not a great example of what the point I’m trying to get at here is, but you’ve seen where defensive breakdowns can put your goalie in a really crappy situation. But, if you insulate him well enough, he’s able to get you good performances. you know, the game against San Jose, the two goals that Cam Talbot allowed, which had him at a save percentage that was below 900. What did you want him to do? It was an incredible tip and then a a blocked pass caused chaos out front. So, like on both those plays, I don’t blame Talbot. I thought he played fantastic out of that. And to your point there, like Talbot’s been good. Gibson has left some stuff to be desired. of the on evolving hockey of the 67 qualified goalenders, Cam Talba ranks 30th in the NHL for goal saved above expected at 2.09. So that’s a cumulative stat. So across the season, he has saved 2.09 more goals than he should have. While John Gibson comes in at 53rd with.9, almost a full goal extra that he’s allowed. But even that is kind of within that margin of error, less than a goal, less than a negative goal one way or the other where you can say, “Okay, he’s he is going to still rebound.” So the goalending, while it hasn’t been great, it hasn’t been terrible either. It hasn’t been the giant sore that it has been in years past. Cam Talbot’s been good. Yeah, Cam Talbot’s been good and Gibson’s been, you know, he’s been a little bit hit or miss, but when he’s terrible, it’s not 100% his fault either. Um, and then you look at the big thing too is the Red Wings had the worst penalty kill save percentage last year on the penalty kill. They could not buy a save from their goalies. So, let me just take a peek at that. I don’t have this ready, but I can easily fix this, get this fixed up. Let’s see where their penalty kill save percentage is right now. Their penalty kill save percentage, however, comes across seventh in the league. So this year where their biggest mark was getting scored on on the penalty kill, the goalies have been making saves. So goalending while hasn’t been perfect still been an improvement. Now I I at the end of the day at the end of the conversation, right, it comes down to these numbers mean nothing unless they can actually turn it around and turn it into something good. And if they can start finishing, then the the suggested numbers will become the real numbers. But I do think it is not. We haven’t seen five on five numbers look this good in a long time. And I think it’s an indication of improvement for sure. And I I think that that is the overarching theme here is like this is this is a positive like this is not a a bad thing. I’m I’m you know I bring up the points I bring up not to like sour or or rain on the parade. like that. This is a great thing that they are nine and four and look as good as they do at even strength. That is literally something that you and I have not seen in our like four years, whatever doing this now. Like this is this is a a great great sign for this hockey team that these numbers look the way they do. It’s just when it’s worded in the phrase of like, oh, like will they even hit another level and get even better? It’s like, well, I don’t I don’t know about that. Like, they’re nine and four with these numbers. I’m not sure that that guarantees that they’re going to be even better. But there it does show that there is still room for improvement, right? The fact that there is room for improvement when you’re nine and four and tied for first place is absolutely fantastic news. This is all good things. 100%. It’s And I don’t think you’re bad. you’re you’re you know evil for pointing out the flaws in the argument because advanced analytics can only take you so far. If you’re not scoring goals, you’re not scoring goals, right? And like that’s just the the fact of the matter. So while I’m excited at the prospect that they could be better yet to your point, they got to start doing it. That’s why we play the games, right? That’s why they always say that’s why you play the games. Scotty, let’s head to another break. When we return, we’ll talk about the Red Wings playing a game as they play face the Golden Knights in Vegas uh on Tuesday. Stay tuned to segment three of Lockdown Red Wings. Hockey season is officially here and nothing beats being in the arena for those opening games. But let’s be real, getting tickets can be a total headache. Between waiting in cues, surprise fees, and prices that jump right before checkout, it’s easy to get frustrated when all you want to do is cheer on your team. That’s where Game Time comes in. The app that gives fans the advantage. It’s your ultimate life hack for scoring amazing NHL tickets. easy and stressfree. I recently used Game Time to grab seats, you’ve heard me talk about it, to the Sergey Federra retirement night in January, and it couldn’t have been simpler. I had great seats in minutes. I love using Game Time because when I go to pay, there’s no hidden fees at checkout. I pick my seat, and the price they show me is the price I see at checkout because the fees are included when you pick the seat. Plus, you can see exactly what the view is from your seat before you buy with their in-app seat view. Their zone deals are a game changer. You can pick the section. And Game Time will show you the best prices for that section. You can even find NHL tickets for under $25. Take the guesswork out of buying NHL tickets with Game Time. Download the Game Time app, create an account, and use code lockdown NHL for $20 off. Terms apply. That’s code L O C K E D O NHL for $20 off. Swipe, tap, ticket, go. Scotty, the Red Wings play the Vegas Golden Knights here on Tuesday. By the time people are listening to this, it will be Tuesday, the final 10:30 p.m. start of the road trip. It’s going to be another late one. probably won’t be getting to bed till 3:00 a.m. for us personally cuz we’ll have to record right after. But the Red Wings are 3 and one on the road trip thus far. Look to end on a positive note. Playing a very good a very good Vegas Golden Knights team. Probably one of the favorites to win the Stanley Cup. They’re 62 and three, tied for first in the Pacific Division with Edmonton. And don’t look now, the Anaheim Ducks. Young and fun. You got to love that for them. Um, and they’re led up front by Jack Eel with 19 points in 11 games and Mitch Mner with 14 in 11 games. Yeah. I mean, when it comes to the Golden Knights, Scotty, how are the Red Wings going to have to tackle beating them on the road? I mean, this is a good team. It’s it’s a it’s a good team that’s been a good team and for a few years now and has a very very deep lineup and that’s kind of how they beat teams. They’re 62 and three at the time of this recording. I don’t know if they play Monday night. Um if if this is a back-to-back situation or not, but they’re 62 and three as we record this. They’re going to be the heavy favorites because it’s in Vegas. Um still no update on Patrick Kane as far as I’m concerned. So, we’ll see what happens in that regard. But yeah, this is just the the kind of the epitome of jack-of alltrades. Like they they have a good offense. They have a really effective defense. They have I mean over the last three four years like on and off effective goalending like they they are good on the uh special teams like really both ends of it. Like they’re just kind of in the top half in the league in literally everything. And so uh it’s a team that you always have to bring your agame against. I think and I I say master of all. It’s not to say like Jack Eel already has a 10 and 10 season and we’re like 13 games in like he already has I think it’s 10 goals and 12 assists. Um you know before the 15 game mark so like they still have obviously high-end very very good players. It’s just they continue to be a deep unit on top of that and we will see what they have to offer here for the Wings on Tuesday night. And you know what’s interesting about them too is like they’re pretty middle of the pack in every statistical I mean every statistical category. We were just talking about the discrep and 17 at least in the one that I have pulled up. They’re all the like basic team stats they’re literally either they’re somewhere between eth and 17th in literally all of them. Yeah, they’re they’re 14th in Corsy. They’re what’s what did I see? Uh in expected goals for percentage. They’re 15th in actual goal share. They’re 13th. Their PDO is I think middle of the pack as well. It’s their penalty kill that I think is Let me go back over here. I have these other ones pulled up. Their their penalty kill is 16th in the league. And their power play, this is where they’re a little bit better. They’re ninth in the league in the power play. So literally every statistical category suggests they’re middle of the pack. But again, going back to the conversation we were just h having, none of that matters, right? If at the end of the day, you walk out of the rink and you’re a winner. And that has been the case for the Vegas Golden Knights early in the the year here. They got six wins, two losses, three overtime losses. And that’s the thing, too, about them and Colorado is they don’t go down easy. If you beat them, you’re probably gonna beat them in overtime as they have more overtime losses than they have regulation losses. Colorado, Scotty, and we’re not talking about the Avalanche, by the way. I don’t know if you saw this. They have one regulation loss and I think five overtime losses. Yeah. And they don’t have any overtime wins. So, if they get take them to overtime, they’re going to lose. I I thought I saw that earlier. I thought that was fascinating. You’re right. We haven’t got an update on Patrick Kane as of yet when we’re recording this because the Red Wings probably, you know, flying to Vegas, probably got an off day because there’s been so many games in a short period of time. If there is an update, they won’t they wouldn’t announce it until, you know, a couple hours before the day of. Anyway, we didn’t talk about it though yesterday. We kind of neglected it with the two games to recap, but the Red Wings did recall Austin Watson. He’s been with the team now for two games. Uh that was in part because of the Patrick Kane injury and then signing sending MBN down. They had the extra roster spot available. I don’t think he’ll play in this game though. I don’t I think he is kind of a if this team gets absolutely pumped then he’ll get a game or if somebody else gets hurt, he’ll get a game. Yeah, it’s a break glass in case of emergency thing for sure. Right. He is that this is his role. This is Austin Watson’s role. You call him up when you have a guy out for a short period of time and you don’t want to burn games on any of do this. Yeah. Like why they keep him around. Yeah. Right. So yeah. Any final thoughts? We ball, baby. We do ball. We’ll be back with a new episode tomorrow. Same time, same place. Your team every day.

The Detroit Red Wings are 9-4 to start the season, atop the Eastern Conference. Yet, despite this, some date suggests they are UNDERPFERFOMING and winning anyway. Where is Detroit still due for more growth? Previewing the Vegas Golden Knights. #LGRW

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