Time for the Green Bay Packers to do what the best teams around the NFL are doing: separate

Time for the Green Bay Packers to do what the best teams around the NFL are doing: separate

The best teams are starting to separate themselves in the NFL. It’s time for the Green Bay Packers to do the same. You are Locked On Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. You were locked on Packers, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. I’m Peter Bowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, peter_bukowski. Follow the podcast on Twitter, locked on Packers. Like us on Facebook, subscribe to the podcast, iTunes, Spotify, Google Podcasts, wherever you find podcasts, you will find Locked on Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked on Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. Today’s episode of Locked on Packers brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. And oh, by the way, the Locked On Network is now the number one sports podcast network. Yes, you read that right. You heard me right. the number one sports podcast network. Thank you so so much. You guys are the reason that that is true and we’ve been doing this a long time. Uh and I know this show has been a big part of why that is the case. And so that that does not happen without you guys. And so I wanted to to start the show there. The rest of the NFC, meanwhile, did what you’re supposed to do and what we unfortunately have not seen the Packers do enough this season, and that is separate. We’re going to talk more about the irony of last year versus this year in a second. The Lions, they go out, they spank the Commanders. They do what the Packers, frankly, could have done and score 40 points on that Commander defense. The Packers didn’t quite get there. They still won that game handily. And by the way, the Packers played against Jaden Daniels and a much healthier, much different version of that Washington Commanders team. the Seahawks, who are an absolute wagon, they go out and they wax the Arizona Cardinals, defense, offense, everything. Just like 16 guys scored rushing touchdowns in this game. All their running backs, if you were an active running back for the Seahawks, you scored like it was an an onslaught. That is what good teams should be doing to bad teams. the the Rams. The Rams, they handled their business against a 49ers team that beat them once already with M. Jones in LA. That game was was close for a little for for parts for stretches. Ultimately, not that close. And so you look around the league, the Bears come back to win a game that they really had no business winning. They looked they looked like dog you know what for three quarters of that game but then they they came back and and took care of it against you know a backup quarterback after Jackson Dart had that at a two-score game. The Ravens with Lamar Jackson now good thing for the Packers that they took care of the Vikings that that Vikings team frankly not not looking as strong as as at least Vikings fans thought it was going to be coming into the year. The Patriots an actual contender in the AFC. The Buccaneers not so much. the Texans with that defense and that that coaching staff, even with Davis Mills, actual players in the AFC, the Jaguars, not so much. Now, the Broncos, I think the Broncos are a fake 8-2 team. DVOA agrees. Um, but they’ve won a bunch of games that they had no business winning. Kind of like the Bears. And I think the Bears are in for a rude awakening. The Broncos with their schedule in the second half, I think also in for a rude awakening. I I think the Bears are gonna end up winning like eight or nine games. If you look at their schedule, their schedule is brutal to close. Now, one team on Monday night has to lose. So, we can’t just say, “Okay, whoever loses is fake and whoever wins is real.” But if the Packers go out and get beat and beat comfortably, which is, by the way, what the public thinks is going to happen. Almost 80% of bets are on the Eagles. Not just the money line, but to cover. It is still Packers one and a half. And by the way, even as the public was hammering the Eagles, the sharp money came in early and stuck that line at two and a half. It did not move until late late in the week when just an overwhelming amount of money had come in over the course of the week on the Eagles. Everyone in the media is picking the Eagles. So, if the Eagles win, shouldn’t be that surprising, right? Right. Shouldn’t be that surprising. My point is if if you go out and you don’t look like a contender, it is going to be I’m not going to say the the worst loss of the season, but it will be the most troubling in this way. They get up for the week one game against the Detroit Lions. They get up for week two against the Washington Commanders. They get up at least in the second half for Aaron Rogers. They get their heads out of their butts and and they play the best half of football maybe that they played all season. I think you could argue week, you know, the first week against Detroit, probably right in there, the first half. If you lose this game on Monday night at home and it’s 28-27 or 2724 because, you know, Jaylen Herz leads a late field goal drive, something like that, that’s not going to be the end of the world. If it’s a competitive back and forth slugfest where it looks like these are two of the best teams in the NFC, I think you can you can count that as the Packers saying we are here. The problem is the big games they’ve shown up for that’s the other games that they haven’t. And so that has been the excuse so far is well this young team, they’re playing down to their level of competition, but they also play up to the level of competition. Well, if that goes out the window, you start to go, well then they’re just not as good as the Seahawks. They’re just not as good as the Eagles. They’re just not as good as the Rams. They’re just not as good as the Lions. Now, we know that we’ve seen them play capably enough that we know in those games against those teams, they can play with those teams. But the question is, can you be consistent enough? Because in the playoffs, you’re going to have to win three of those games at least, maybe four, and you’re going to have to win at home. This game is at home. This is for the Packers. The Eagles got the bye-week, but the Packers are at home. They They’re staying at home. They played last week at home. They’re coming in pissed off. This is a revenge game spot. They’ve been They’ve had this game circled since the schedule came up. You have to be able to get up and and shake off whatever happened last week. And you can’t be too amped up. Jordan Love can’t come in and sail the first three passes because he’s too amped up. I almost said Matt Laflur can’t come in and throw three bombs off the start, but I kind of I would kind of love that. Like even if you go 0 for three and three and out and punt, if it’s three straight shot plays, fine. Fine. Honestly, fine. Now they’re going to It seems like they’re going to be limited at receiver. Matthew Golden and Savon Williams. Certainly not 100%. If they do play, their three healthy receivers are going to be Romeo Dobs, Dantavian Wix, and Christian Watson. So, this is 2023 all over again. Well, by the way, that version of the offense, Jaden Reed was hurt in there, too. That that version of the offense looks really good. So, this defense has not played well since the the opening really two and a half weeks. They they played well in in Cleveland. And then you you that first half against the Cowboys, like that was a month of excellent football. They played a month of kind of meh football. Let’s see that version of this team. The one that looks like a Super Bowl contender. All the underlying numbers still like the Packers in this game. All of them. Okay, not literally all of them, but the ones that I care about, the efficiency numbers, their net yards, their net value, EPA, DVOA, all the acronyms that I care about and have always cared about. This team is different from last year in that I kept saying but the DVOA but the EPA but all those numbers and then you’d watch them in these big games and they weren’t they weren’t up to the task over and over and I understand fans going look at a certain point whatever like I there and and this is true with Jordan Love to an extent too where I think Packer fans they heard for years oh all the numbers say Aaron Rogers is amazing. Well, in the playoffs, they only got it done one time. And so, I understand Packers fans being a little bit jaded about the Jordan Love numbers and being one of the league leaders in in EPA and all that stuff. All the good numbers, all the numbers you want to be. Like, it’s better to be at the top and for you to go, I don’t know, than for you to be like 10th and you feel like, yeah, that that accurately reflects where he is. No, no, you want the production to be there. You would much rather that this Packers team though, it’s time to show it. Like it’s November now. It’s it’s snowed. The the Giants and the and the Bears played in a snow globe game. Not a snow globe game, but it was a snow game. We could be in for a snow globe game tonight. This is This is your time. Toyota starts in less than a week. Let’s start it a little bit early. Jordan Love, go out when everyone has the Eagles. Everyone has the Eagles. So, I don’t want to hear, “Oh, the Eagles aren’t that good. This is a I’ve said this is a different Eagles team than than last year’s team.” And it is. It’s not as good as last year’s team. At least by the end of the season, that end of the season Eagles team is not what we saw to the start of this season. This is your time. Go take care of it. Now, what’s weird about all of this is last year feels so different from this year in a lot of ways. And if they could just put those two teams together, they’d be the best team in the NFL. But they haven’t and they can’t. So why not? We’ll talk about it next. 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That’s rippling.com/lockton NFL for 6 months free. Terms and conditions apply. The Packers are the most annoying team in the NFL because we know what the talent is. We know what the what the upside is. And we saw last year they are capable of beating good teams. It is funny to me that last year the knock on the Packers was well they don’t win the big games. They’re just beating up on bad teams. They they you know they blow out the Saints and they blow out the Seahawks and they you know they they won a bunch of games against bad teams. Now, people forget that they went in and beat Matthew Stafford in LA. And that Seahawks team was fighting for the playoffs until the last week and they beat the crap out of that team. They were beating the brakes off Gino Smith before Gino Smith got hurt. So, we can’t just not count those games. And they they played the Lions fought tooth and nail in that game. They just couldn’t get it done at the end. And so, the knock on them was well, they they just beat the bad teams. Well, this year they had the opposite problem. Couldn’t get up to play the Browns. Couldn’t get up to play the Cardinals even though they won that game. Couldn’t couldn’t be bothered against the Cowboys in the second half. Now, again, I I have and will continue to maintain that that was outlier of outliers. And let’s not forget that in three games, it’s been a missed kick in every game that has cost them. We will talk about the kicking situation at the end. I promise. But you would much rather have the team that plays with their food, but in the big games plays like a big boy than the team that was the 2024 version that started the all these big games slowly and had to try and come back. And yeah, they came back in a lot of them, but they didn’t win. They had the bleed in the fourth quarter against the Lions and we can’t pretend like that wasn’t a real thing. And they they fought the Eagles. They fought that Eagles team with with Dantavian Wixs and and a banged up Tucker Craft. No Watson, no Reed, no Jenkins, no Doss. They made that a game well into the the second half of that game. That version of this team is still like they’re scrappy. This is this is what you’d rather be. Now, it makes more sense if you’re say the Chiefs and you’ve won three Super Bowls and you can play with your food and still raise your level in the playoffs and all those things. We don’t know that this team is capable of doing that, but if they go out and take care of the Eagles and win this game, it’s not that I don’t care what happens the rest of the way. They’ve got a lot of big games. They’ve got a lot of division games. They play the Vikings twice. They play the Lions again in Detroit. They play the Bears twice. They got the Ravens coming to Lambo. They’ve got the Broncos. Those are all teams right now today fighting for playoff positioning. They have one game left really against a team that is is not really playing for anything at this point. And it could be the Giants with a backup quarterback. That game is in less than a week. So, they’re going to have to come off an emotional uh huge prime time tilt, go on the road and play a a Giants team that really should have beat the Bears in Chicago in the snow. That team is not going to roll over for the Packers. That being said, if you beat the Eagles, it’s like, okay, you you you know, you handily beat the Lions in week one. Impressive win. still one of the most impressive wins of the season by anybody. And you beat the Eagles if you beat the Eagles. Now, you haven’t played the Seahawks, you’re not gonna. You haven’t played the Rams, you’re not gonna. But the the Lions and the Eagles are as good as anyone in not just the NFC, the NFL. So, if you pass those tests, that’s the version of the team you would much rather be. Now, ideally, you’d take the team that was able to come in and with a B+ effort blow out the Saints. That would have been a really nice team to have last week against Carolina and in Cleveland and in Dallas. Not that I think Dallas is a bad team, but they’ve lost some games and you’re just sort of like, well, yeah, that that’s not the version that the Packers saw. that that Browns defense in week three, not the version of the team that we’ve seen. I mean, the the Jets had no problem getting to 13 would have been plenty. 17 would have been more than enough. The Packers couldn’t do it. Is that for for lack of trying? No. But this version of the team is a is a variable team. It’s about the energy that they bring. It’s about the focus that they bring. But I’m sick of this young team stuff. Like, this is how young teams play. They play with their food and then in the big games they get up. Well, this Eagles team is is capable of going punch for punch with you. They’re not just going to roll over. So, you you’ve you’ve got to play a consistent four quarters. Like, you’re gonna you’re going to need four quarters to beat this Eagles team. I asked Brandon Snder on our our squad show, “How many good quarters do you need to play against the Panthers to win that game?” And and Brandon Brandon’s answer was two. They couldn’t even manage two. Two is not going to is not going to cut it against the Eagles. But I fully expect to see the real Packers in this game, at least for a half. And and it would be nice if it’s the first half because if it’s if it’s in the first half now, you have the Eagles offscript. They can’t get into their under center play action and now they’ve got a pass to win. And again, this is this is a team that is going to is going to invite the variance as well. You could, if you’re the Packers, go into this game and try and do to Philly what the Panthers did to the Packers. Run the ball. Run the ball. Try and control the clock. trying to get this into a seven, eight possession game and hope that you can get the one turnover or the one big play that that gets you the win. But you don’t have to do that. You’re good enough to just go win to go play and play to your strengths. Try and hit them over the top. Try and create big plays. Now, I I do think the Packers are going to be able to run the ball in this game. I think we’re going to see six offensive linemen. This is when Matt Laflur has been traditionally at his best. You lose Tucker Craft, you’ve got a full week to prepare now without your best players. Packers didn’t have Christian Watson early in the season. They lose Jaden Reed. They were able to scheme around Jaden Reed not being at 100%. Christian Watson not being in the lineup. Maybe no Matthew Golden in this game. We’ll see. He’s apparently pushing to play but was was not practicing late in the week. Still got a questionable designation which is interesting. Maybe they’re just saving that. I don’t know that like your third or fourth receiver, depending on, you know, how you look at it, being koi about that is really gonna like change the way that the Eagles are going to approach this game. But you’d really like to have Golden and Watson on the field at the same time. We haven’t really seen that, but this Packers team goes into the game with enough firepower, with more than enough firepower. I’ve said it before and I will say it again. Jordan Love and Matt Laflur, that’s enough to win any game that you walk into. I think Jordan Love is that good. I think Matt Laflur is that good. We haven’t seen their best yet. Now is the time to show it. Now is the time to show it. And I think the same is true of Jeff Hafley. I want to see the playoff game playbook. Not that you’re going to deploy the same exact thing because you would hope the Eagles are are prepared for some of that stuff. It’s not like the Packers did anything that crazy. They just played well. It’s time for for Michael Parsons and Rashawn Garry to get back to dominating. It’s time for Edan Cooper. Where is that version of Edin Cooper? We haven’t seen him really this year. This was supposed to be the year that he ascended. Now, remember, progress is not linear most of the time. So, it’s not that I I suddenly think that the world is different and Eden Cooper is not going to be the player that he looked like he could be at the end of his rookie season. That guy’s still in there. This would be a great game to have him because you’re going to need to defend the middle of the field. You’re going to need to defend the run with Saquon Barkley. You’re going to need to chase after Jaylen Herz. If the if the Eagles are going to get under center, they’ve got a backup interior offensive lineman in there at center. Can you create some constrnation in the A gap? Can you can you line up Micah and Edin Cooper in the A gap and actually send somebody? The one time they did that seemingly it worked against Carolina. I want to see the what does the aggressive Jeff Hley game plan look like. It doesn’t always have to be blitz blitz blitz. I think you can play shell coverage against this Eagles team if you can stop the run. The problem is teams don’t try and do that because they don’t think they can stop the run from from two high looks. So do you see Xavier McKini more down in the box? I I would say that I I would say it worked against the Panthers. It did work. the Packers offense, they got into the red zone five times and scored one touchdown. Like if they score, even if they just kicked field goals on a couple of those, you win. But you shouldn’t need that. So to me, the the more I’ve gone over this, the Packers are going to have their opportunities. I think they’re going to move the ball. You have to the one thing you have to change. I said in my keys to victory video that they need to play to their identity, which is a team that gets up for big games, by the way. But in then in the red zone, you can’t play to your identity because your identity has been inconsistent in the red zone. They’ve been just an anemic red zone offense at times this season. And that has cost them in these games. Have the best red zone game you’ve had all year. Have the best red zone plan you’ve had all year. And I think the Packers will beat the Eagles. I think they’re going to do it anyway. Now, this kicker situation is weird. Brandon McManus is going to be the kicker, but Matt Laflur opened a kicking competition and then acted like he didn’t. And that’s annoying. Speaking of the most annoying team in the NFL, we’ll talk about it next. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than on FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you missed the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. The Packers, look, the the money line and the over. I’m telling you, if you think the Packers are going to win, I think they’re going to win. They’re going to you’re going to have to score 25 points, 27 points to win this game. So, if they’re going to win, I don’t think they’re going to win 27 to 17. And even that would be right on the cusp of the over. Packers money line in the over. You’re getting nice juicy odds. Go do it. Go do it. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, go to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. I just have to say it again. Lockdown Packers, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Not just your team every day. Now the number one sports podcast network. Very, very cool. Thank you all for being a part of it. Now, two weeks ago, Matt Laflur was asked about making a change at Kicker and said unequivocally, Brandon Mcmanis was going to be the kicker. this past week. He was asked about it and he said, “We’re going to we’re going to give it the week. Both guys are going to compete. It’s a competition and we’ll we’ll play the guy who gives us the best chance to win.” Those are not the same. Those are not the same. Imagine if Imagine if a team was asked about their quarterback and they said, “No, this is our starter.” And then the next week they said, “You know what? We’re going to we’re going to play it out. Guys are going to take reps. Both guys they’re going to split reps because both guys kick this week and we’ll let the week decide. We’ll let the week of practice decide.” And then Lafleur was asked about it again at the end of last week and it was like, “Well, that’s really more of a you guys thing.” Like, you know, Bren McManus is our kicker. I’m I’m sorry. We didn’t make up what happened. We didn’t make up the change in tone about this and we didn’t make up the missed kicks. I continue to believe that both guys will end up being active on game day that they’ll make this work that that the Packers will have enough injuries that they can make some guys inactive who might have otherwise been active had they been healthy and you have both guys active on game day. Ideally, Brandon Mcmanis just kicks great and you know, maybe he kicks the game winner. That would be a cool moment. Like, that might be the best possible outcome is that he goes three for three on field goals, makes all his extra points, and and Jordan Love leads a game-winning drive, and Brand McManis makes the gamewinner, and then all this stuff quiets down. But that’s like, don’t gaslight us. Don’t pretend like what happened didn’t happen. We were there. We watched it. We heard it. We were a part of that week in the reality that we share. So don’t pretend like that didn’t happen. Now maybe it is the case that Brandon McManus was always going to be the kicker. If you listen to Rich Bace at the end of the week, he made it seem like, hey, if it was up to you, he actually said, “If it was up to me, Brandon McManus is going to be the kicker. I have the utmost confidence in him.” which is what you’re supposed to say. I don’t think Matt Laflur was ready early in the week to make that decision. Now, if McManus is getting healthier, feels better, feels more confident. Great. Great. But then tell us that, hey, we think Brandon’s had a great week of practice. He’s going to be our kicker on Monday night. We’ve always believed this is an injury thing. we were ready to to, you know, give Lucas a shot if Brandon wasn’t able to go or didn’t look good, but this is this is where we are and we feel good about it. That could have been what was said. To act like there was some mediadriven thing, it it is is insulting our intelligence. One, and two, it makes it seem like not everyone is on the same page there. like because Baceia said what he said and then Matt Laflur said what he said and it’s sort of like well that’s not it’s not that’s not what happened. So look maybe there never really was a competition but then you didn’t have to say that there was a competition. I think there was and it’s possible that Rich Baceio put his foot down and was like look this is the guy he’s our guy. I think to keep his confidence up, we have to we have to treat him a certain way. We have to stand by him here. Let give him one more shot. And Lafleur said, “Okay, the team has invested in him. The team has, you know, gave him the contract. They brought him in. He’s been a reliable kicker until this season, but he’s also been hurt. Now, he wasn’t hurt when they had the field goal blocked. Wasn’t hurt when when the Dallas kick was blocked.” So, those are different, but that also not his fault. Now, the first the the Browns kick probably would have been blocked no matter what, but it was a pretty low kick. Like, it was not a good kick. He was I think he was just trying to like baby it over. And that’s fine. Like the get me over drive, if you can do it in golf or the get me over serve in tennis, if you’re can if if that’s like if that’s a thing where you can be more accurate and just kind of baby one up there, great. Great. Your line can’t get blown up like that. I don’t think that was Brand McMadison’s fault. He does kind of do that like on extra points. He clearly does not give it everything. It’s very much a second serve in tennis when he’s just like, “Let me just get this through.” Which I’m again, I have no problem with that. Kicking has cost this team now three games. In every game, kicking has cost them. If you didn’t have a real competition, that would be that would be bad. That would be institutional mismanagement. So, I would rather you have said, “Hey, we have this competition. You know, we gave it the week like we said we were going to. We feel confident in Brandon McManis.” Not, “Well, you guys were really the ones that that caused this.” Like to to blame the media in the in for a situation you created, Matt Laflur. Give me a break. It looks small. It looks petty. And it looks like you don’t have a strong grasp on what’s going on there. It looks bad to handle it this way. Maybe it means nothing. But I tell you what, if if Brandon McManus goes out and misses some more kicks, it’s going to make you and Rich Baceia and everyone else look even worse because it will look like you didn’t really have a kicking competition and then you just gave the veteran the job and he was bad again. That can’t happen. That can’t happen. Not in a season where you are chasing a Super Bowl. Absolutely not. Let’s hope that that’s not what happens. I still think the Packers are going to win. I I I have to believe that that version they didn’t just not learn how to play football or stop figuring out how to play football. And I believe in the underlying metrics. I believe in the numbers that say the Packers are the better team. I believe in the matchups that say the Packers have key advantages in places where they are good and where the the Eagles have some issues. I don’t think this is going to be what happened last week. I think the Packers are coming in pissed off. And if you can’t get up for this game, if you can’t play well in this game, then you don’t deserve to be Super Bowl contenders. Period. End of story. But I think the Packers do. I think they are a good team. And good teams win these games at home. By the way, uh the thank you Buffalo and Josh Allen for proving that number one, good quarterbacks can have bad games, inexplicably bad games. He was terrible against the Dolphins and that team was terrible against the Dolphins. They’re supposed to be Super Bowl contenders. They just beat the Chiefs. Josh Allen was like the MVP favorite and played like dog poop. So, that’s just a good reminder. This is a week- toeek league. The Packers can remind everyone again on Monday night and say, “Hey, look, don’t forget about us. We’re still we’re still that team.” Because they are. All right. We will be live Monday night after the game. A half an hour on our Locked on Packers feed on YouTube. Go subscribe on YouTube. Then another 60 minutes on the same feed, the Lockdown Packer Squad Show, which will then be in your feed on the number one sports podcast network, the Locked On podcast network. Follow me on all the socials. Follow the podcast on all the socials. Subscribe wherever you get podcasts so you can stay locked on Packers.

Week 10 has been all about the best teams showing why they’re the best teams. It’s time for the Green Bay Packers to add their names to that shortlist. Plus, the difference between last year’s “only beat up on bad teams” Packers, and is Matt LaFleur playing games with the kicking competition?

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Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

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