Buffalo Sabres badly need a win in Utah against the Mammoth

Buffalo Sabres badly need a win in Utah against the Mammoth

Sabres in Mammoth tonight. What to expect, including in goal, coming up here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. [Music] You’re Locked On Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network, your team every day. What is up everybody and welcome in to this Wednesday edition of the Locked On Sabers podcast. Thanks for making us your first listen every day. Part of the number one sports podcast network, the locked on podcast network. Sneaky Jody Bioi here on a Wednesday. You can check us out wherever you get your podcast. You can watch the show on YouTube. You can also reach out, get involved, get text updates along the way as well from our text club. That’s over at jointsubex.comsabers. Coming to you on a game day. Sabres after dark, right? Nine o’clock. I mean, every game is after dark at this point after the clock’s changed. Um, except for those couple of matinea games, but tonight nine o’clock at Utah. Their first trip to Utah playing the Mammoth, of course. Last year, they would have been there to play the Utah Hockey Club. Um, lot to get to on today’s game, what the lineups are going to look like, Utah’s struggles as of late, also my bet of the night, which is coming your way. We are still very much in the positive on the season. So, we’ll get to that coming up a little bit later on as well. Sabres are big underdogs in tonight’s game despite the fact Utah’s been struggling and with all the Saber injuries, um it kind of can make a little bit of sense. So, we go to tonight, we look into tonight’s game and it really starts for me with who is expected to be between the pipes. We did know already that it was likely that Colton Ellis was going to get one game because Lindy Ruff said so going into this trip. Appears as though he is going to get this game against the Utah Mammoth. And I just want to dive in on the goalie situation a little bit before we get to anything else about this game because if Ellis plays tonight, which is only his second game of the year and he has not played obviously in weeks, right? Like that October 22nd game against Detroit was a long time ago now and he played really well in it. But it’s been a minute and he has not gone to Rochester. He can’t, right, and get a conditioning stint. You’re not allowed to do that. Um, if unless you’re coming back from injury, he’s not coming back from injury. He’s coming back from sitting in the press box and on the bench and not being asked to really play. He’s the third string goalender. So when guys are sitting that long, it can be tough, I think, for them to get put into a game when he’s only played one hockey game in the last month, month plus. And I think it would be tough for a guy to build up some rhythm. Eric Comry is somebody who dealt with this a couple of years ago, although I never thought Eric Comry was a very good goalender. I think Colton Elvis might be a very good goalender, and I would love to find out. So, I’m glad he’s getting this game tonight. I’m glad Lindy committed to getting him one game on this trip. And as Lindy has said, there was supposed to be one other game when they were in Toronto a couple of weeks ago, the game they lost late and blew it in overtime. John Tiveres that was supposed to be an Ellis game and he was tight that morning and they decided to go with Lucin and Lucin gave up the soft goal in the third period and it ended up going against the Buffalo Sabres in that one. So, it should have been two starts. And I guess if that is a little bit of a window into their current plan is we’re basically a twogoalie system between Lion and Lucan in and only every once in a while we’re mixing in an Ellis start. Well, it’s kind of closer to a twogoalie system than a three, but you are still working him in. You’re not having him go 2 months, 3 months, four months without ever getting a game in just to hold the asset, which is basically what they are doing right now with Colton Ellis. They are holding the asset. They think he’s an NHL goalender. They might have good reason to believe he’s an NHL goalender. His trajectory points to somebody that could be an NHL goalender, and I’d be curious to find out. They don’t want to give him up, but they also don’t want to put him up above Lucin or Lion off of one game. Well, what about if it’s two games? What about if it’s three games, four? Well, let’s start with tonight. This is game number two. This is a strong opponent on the totality of the season. It’s not, if you only look at the last two weeks, but it’s a strong opponent on the totality of the season. It’s a team that can score a lot of goals, has one of the highest scorers in the league right now and Nick Schmaltz, and you are playing with a lineup that is missing a ton of pieces, including your best player and best defenseman. You’re missing tons and tons of forwards. And it’s a game that you might go into it expecting the Sabres to give up a lot of shots and to be pinned in their own end and really playing in survival mode. So if that’s the case, lot of action for the goalender. I think if Ellis comes through tonight looking good. He gets a lot of action. Maybe he steals one for the Sabres and they get the win and he allows two goals on 37 shots. Then I’m gonna want to see Colton Ellis again. Maybe not necessarily on this trip, but something further along than the two goalie system. Ellis only plays every once in a while, every other week, every third week. Something closer to No, he’s there. He is in a rotation. There is a rotation here where it’s one, two, three or it’s one, two, one, three or it’s one, one, two, two, three. Like it is it is more than he gets one of every he gets a quarter of the starts that Lion and Lucan and do but he almost gets half the starts that Lion and Lucan and do something along those lines. I think if he plays well tonight, he is worthy of being given that opportunity. So that’s tough for him though, right? Because I’m putting a lot for him on one game. I don’t know that Lindy Ruff, by the way, is necessarily treating it this same way. But one game, it’s a lot to put on him because if it goes poorly, I think there will be clamoring, not from me because I’ll want to defend him some and not want to lose him. But I bet you if he has a tough going tonight, he gives up four, five, six, whatever, and the Sabres get beat, then there will be some people that go, “What are we really doing here? Why are we holding on to him?” If you’re not going to play him, cut him loose because playing him once a month is not going to get the best out of him anyway. So, you’re not going to find out anything and you’re only going to get beat when it happens. So, just move on and let somebody else take him. Let the Blues have him back. Or maybe somebody else has had injuries at the position and they want to give him an opportunity to be a a NHL level goalie in the league. I could see him getting claimed by somebody that isn’t St. Louis, but he definitely would get claimed by St. Louis. So, a lot to put on one game cuz it might be over if he has a really bad one. I I wonder what they really think of it. How close would they be to waving him? Is it really only one bad game away? Is it two? Is it four? What’s the number? Because there is a number. And on the flip end, it’s like every time he plays, it feels like he’s really got to play well or he’s not going to get implemented into this goalie rotation that they currently have. I’d love for him to make them push them into a tough decision. That’s my number one outcome right now is Ellis continues to play strong every time he goes in there and it really makes it tough on Kevin Adams to have to do something uncomfortable which is either trade Lukan in a way and admit defeat on that one or I I don’t know what the ore is. It’s always it’s like the only other alternative. I guess that’s really what I’m rooting for is Ellis to make Lucen in expo exposable for them that they could they could dump him and feel like they’re okay with the two guys that they they currently have. So, Colton Ellis expected to start tonight by the way. Uh it’ll be it’ll not feel great for me as a podcast host if uh later on they have practice doesn’t end up playing. But apply all of this to the next start that he’ll make which is in the next couple of days if it isn’t tonight. but it is expected that he will play tonight. Other things about the Savers lineup, everything else is the same. We’ve kind of gone through it, but just to go through it really quickly here for tonight at 9:00, you’re looking at Mloud, Tuck, and Thompson up top, Alen, Roseanne, and Quinn on the second line, Kak, Don, and Greenway on line three. Krebs, Menstein, and Dunn on the fourth, Power and Samuelson top unit, uh, top pairing, I should say. Byum and Timmans on the second pair, Bryson and Kessle Ring expected to be together on the third pair. We don’t know who’s going to be the backup goalender if it matters to you. The power play, I’ll get to this in my betting a little bit later on the betting preview. Bo Byron playing on the number one power play unit. I was curious and looking at him for a point in this game, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it. The only reason I was going to is because well, I’m getting a plus a good plus number on the Saber on the defenseman that’s quarterbacking a number one power play unit. you get a secondary assist all the time from those guys in the NHL, but I just couldn’t bring myself to do it because I just don’t think Byum is all that good. And I don’t want By I don’t I don’t want to have action on Bo Byum right now. Uh not at this moment. When we come back, what’s going on with Utah as of late? Because it’s been a good season for them, but it’s not been a good couple of weeks. that when we return here on the Lockdown Sabers podcast. Today’s episode of Locked On Sabers is presented by Drip Drop. When I’m when you’re hydrated, everything just works better. Your focus, your energy, your mood, even your skin. That’s why been using you got to use Drip Drop. It’s doctor developed hydration that keeps you running at full power no matter what your day looks like. Drip Drop isn’t your average sports drink. It delivers three times the electrolytes and half the sugar of leading brands using a sciencebacked formula trusted by medical professionals, firefighters, and over 90% of top college and pro teams. If you use Drip Drop as part of your daily routine, it’s easy. You mix a packet in the morning before the gym or during that midday slump. It tastes amazing. Your go-to flavor, find it. It’s, you know, they have all the options for you. It could be your secret weapon for staying sharp and energized through longer days. Right now, DripDrop is offering podcast listeners to this show 20% off your first order. That’s dripdrop.com. Use promo code locked on NHL. dripdrop.com. Promo code locked on NHL. Help keep your body and mind performing at their best with Drip Drop. Sneaky Joe Debiosi back here on the Locked on Sabres podcast. The Sabres and the Mammoth. The Sabres did not see the Mammoth that long ago. They played them of course only what was it five games ago. Now they saw Utah um on November 4th and that was the game where JJ Purka came back and the Sabres did not play a tribute video to him which I don’t think is the end of the world by the way. um he had not accomplished that much for this team. Very little and I don’t think you have to do it for every single player that used to play for you. So I didn’t care. Uh maybe you did. He did have a lot of fans and he has been having a pretty good year for Utah so far. And in that game he did not put up a point. He was a minus one on the night and he got the hat of the game which whatever eye roll in the locker room from Utah. They only gave it to him because he played his former team. He didn’t necessarily play well in the game and it’s not like he got shipped off against his will from Buffalo. He wanted to go but okay whatever. Uh go ahead Mammoth teammates. um that win that the Mammoth had over the Sabres that by the way they stifled them, right? The Sabres got 18 shots on goal in that game and they played into overtime, but that was kind of a good point because they did not play well in that game. They were doubled up on shots and Utah was the better team pretty much throughout, but the Sabres managed to get a point. that win by the Mammoth are their that’s their only win since October 26th. It’s been more than two weeks and Utah has won only that game. A 4-2 loss to Ottawa most recently on Sunday, a 6-2 loss in Montreal, a 5-3 loss in Toronto. They have played four games in a row against the Atlantic division. Now, all four of those games were on the road, excuse me, excuse me, five games in a row against the Atlantic Division cuz they did host Tampa back on November 2nd, and they lost all of those games except the Buffalo game, including the Tampa game, which they were actually at home. So, when you’re looking at what has been happening there as of late, they’re giving up a lot of goals. Kajel Veg Melka when he is in there and um VTEC Venice when he has been in there the production is starting to fade for those goalenders and listen one consequence of I I respect what Utah did and actually I would rather my team go the route that they did which was yeah we’re going to be willing to give up on a lot of defense here because we want to be fun we want to be exciting we want to be skilled we want to score a lot of goals that I just by the trade they made with Buffalo this off seasonason. They traded away a good depth defenseman in Michael Kessler. They traded away a very good two-way forward in Josh Don and brought back a very skilled offensive player that is a total disaster in his own end. That’s not why he’s there for you. So, is it that surprising that Utah in their last five losses, which is just not including the Buffalo game where the Sabres actually held them to two, where they’ve scored six, they’ve been bet a lot, they’ve allowed, excuse me, six against Edmonton, they’ve allowed four against Tampa, five against Toronto, six against Montreal, and four against Ottawa. They’re allowing a lot of goals as of late. So, defense score on them. That’s their weakness at at least in this last couple of weeks. Nine and seven on the year for Utah. They still have some forwards that can scare you. Clayton Keller is a very good player. Logan Culie, Dylan Gunther, Nick Schmaltz, I mentioned Purka. They have good forwards, fast, young, skilled. That blue line though, Mikuel Sergachev and Dmitri Seichev on that top pairing. Nate Schmidt, John Marino, Ian Cole, Nick Dimone, like these are these are bottom pair defenseman on good teams. They’re second and third pair. I really five of their six. It’s just not a good blue line right now. Um they are missing Shawn Dery at the moment who is actually I think an underrated defenseman. Um and you see Valamaki as well. But the guys you’re going to see on the ice against the Sabres tonight, uh, they don’t really hold up. It It’s tough though cuz I don’t think I don’t know if the Sabres have the forwards to take advantage. Like that might be the weakness of your opponent, but is Noah Osland really ready to just crush a bad blue line like that, Roseanne and Quinn with him? Um, is the Kak Don Greenway line going to produce offense for me against those pairings? like I just don’t really trust anybody other than the Mloud Tuck Thompson line. That line should dominate whatever defense pairing they go up against. So hopefully you get a couple of goals from them. Um because that would be where the mismatch is. The Sabres top line playing against whatever Utah pairing they they throw out there. It probably would be the Sergeev pairing, but Sergeev isn’t that great at this point. I don’t think anymore anyway. Um at least not as good as he used to be. So that’s where we’re at. Sabres and Mammoth. Sabres are uh an underdog in this game. We will get into some of the odds. My bet of the night when we come back looking to get back into our winning ways that when we return here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. Today’s episode of Lockdown Sabres presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We’re going to get to our bet of the night in just a minute, so stay tuned for that. Hockey tonight, tons of league action. College football. How about college basketball rolling a little bit. You got the Bulls uh playing really well last night. And the NBA’s back as well. NFL, no better place to get in on all the action than FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you do miss the start of a game and maybe you want to get in on my bet of the night, but oh crap, it’s 9:09 and I didn’t get it in. Uh FanDuel’s live bets, everything from who will score next to third period comebacks. The odds might change a little bit, but especially early in a game, they’re not going to do all that much. Or maybe you you like how a game is going for a certain team, but they haven’t scored yet. You want to get in on them. Well, that’s another thing that you could do. Live betting makes it so much more fun. Plus, you can combine all these bets, live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a much bigger payout. Right now, FanDuel’s new giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So, head to fanduel.com, sign up, play your game with FanDuel, official sports betting partner of the NBA. Wrapping things up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. I got my bet of the night coming up. Uh I did not make bets of the night in Florida while I was there. One because I couldn’t bet them. And two, I didn’t really love anything in either of those two games. So I accepted the push and stayed at plus 9.4 units on the year, which is the important number. seven and five in our 12 bets that we have given you so far this year. But again, plus 9.4 because a couple of those were anytime gold bets and those can pay out a lot better. Tonight, I don’t have anything crazy for you, but let’s go through what we’re looking at. The Sabres being an underdog in Utah plus 164 on the money line. So, um there’s that. Utah minus 200 at FanDuel. the overunder at 6 1/2 – 105 on the over – 115 on the under. I mentioned earlier was looking around at some of the prop bets. I did look at Bo Byum for a while plus 146 to record a point. He is not putting up many points this year, but he is on the number one power play unit in place of Rasmus Dalene. And those roles can really breed points for players. Now, the problem with and the reason I’m not making him the bet of the night is I don’t know how many power plays Sabre’s going to get tonight. I don’t know what kind of whistles we’re going to get. If you got a lot of power plays, then I would like the Byron bet. But otherwise, I don’t really believe that he’s going to do much for you at five on five. I don’t think he’s a great player. And when he’s not playing with Dene, I think he can really be a liability. So, I’m not going with Byum, but I guess he would be my favorite of those guys that are in here. Ryan Mloud is another possibility. Plus 108 to record a point. Um or to score a goal, plus 360. Um top line centering Tuck and Thompson. Either one of those. He’s around the action. He’s in an offensive role for this game. And his odds are below Jack Quinn who’s playing with two rookies and Josh Don who’s playing on the third line with Jordan Greenway. Now Don’s playing power play, too. Um, but plus 260 for Don, plus 360 for Mloud. I much like Mloud in that area. So, that’s some of the individual bets. The bet I like the most tonight, honestly, and it’s I’m going to kind of take Utah out of the equation a little bit, which I know is they’re like, what are you saying? They’re in the game. It’s how I imagine the Sabres are going to try to play a game like tonight. Knowing the bodies they’re missing and how Lindy’s kind of talked about this. Without Dene, without all your forwards, what kind of game are you going to try to coach? What kind of game are you going to try to play when you’re missing half your lineup? It’s a conservative game plan. It’s a don’t get beat, don’t take too many chances, don’t get too fancy, let’s play hard hockey, block shots, and let’s get a point out of this. Take our chances in overtime or the shootout. That’s how I think the Sabres going to play tonight’s game. So despite the fact that Utah has not been able to keep the puck out of the back of their net in recent weeks, I’m going under 6 and a half goals for my bet of the night tonight. Minus 115 under 6 and a half goals. These teams did just go under this total by a lot with only three goals scored in an overtime game on November 4th. Um so easily that one would have covered. Uh, and I like Ellis. I I don’t really see a difference right now between him and Ukapeka Lucin. Um, it I don’t have less confidence, I should say, in Ellis than I would in Lucin. Sure, it’s more unknown, but in the one game he played so far this year, it looked really good. So, I’m going to roll with Colton Ellis. I’m going to roll with the type of game the Sabres are going to want to play. And especially if Al is playing, they might even feel more inclined to play a conservative protective style because they have a goalender behind them that they’re not going to want to get beat and maybe they don’t even know how much they could fully trust him. It’s kind of like how sometimes you see teams play more um you know, they don’t take a lot of chances when they have a backup goalie in. Just when you have an elite starter, how teams will play different with an elite goalie versus a back versus a backup goalie. And that’s kind of how I’m thinking about how the Sabres will play in front of Ellis tonight. under minus 115. That’s what we’re looking for uh in tonight’s game. Boring hockey game. Sorry to say, but I think that’s uh the best case scenario for tonight. By the way, I said this this morning a WGR. Uh I’m calling tonight a must-win. Not really, of course. If they lose this game tonight, then we’ll just talk about what the next game will be. But the reason I say that is the Buffalo Sabres at the moment are three points back, not of the playoffs, although they are only four points back of the playoffs. They are three points back of the next closest team in the East. The Sabres are in dead last with 14 points. Toronto, the next team above them, with 17 points. If you don’t want to feel like the season is over already, what you are going to need is the Sabres to not lose points on this road trip. They can’t go 0 and3. They can’t go 02 and one. They got to find a win somewhere in here just to not make fans feel like it’s over. Because if they go 02 and one in the next three and they come back to Buffalo down five points to anybody else in the conference, it’s going to feel like the season’s over. And I don’t think they’re going to beat Colorado. Don’t think they’re going to beat Colorado on Thursday night. So, they got to win tonight because if they don’t win tonight, and I think they’ll lose on Thursday. Bad vibes going into the weekend. Really bad vibes. Get the win tonight. Relieve some of that pressure to have to win against an elite team like the Avalanche and um go take your chances in Detroit. Must win. Calling it a must-win. That’ll do it for us today here on the Locked On Savers podcast. Be sure to check out Locked On NHL Game Night every night, all the action around the league. Get local analysis on a national scale. You can find it on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcasts. Talk to you after Sabres and Mammoth. You’re on the Lockdown Savers podcast, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

The Buffalo Sabres are in Utah looking for redemption on their early November loss to the Mammoth, and are trying to dig their way out of last place. Colten Ellis is expected to start in goal for just his second start of the season. Why should we be excited about the potential of Ellis? What happens with Ellis if he has a great start? What if he has a terrible start?

Plus, why the Mammoth have been struggling as of late, other than their win in Buffalo earlier this month. Should we expect the Sabres skeleton-squad lineup to score on a team that hasn’t been able to keep the puck out of their net? Tage Thompson, Ryan McLeod, and Alex Tuch will be needed to keep up the scoring.

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