Likelihood for St. Louis Cardinals to trade veteran stars: Arenado, Sonny Gray & Contreras?

Likelihood for St. Louis Cardinals to trade veteran stars: Arenado, Sonny Gray & Contreras?

With the Major League Baseball general managers meetings going on this week in Las Vegas, are the Cardinals any closer to swinging a big-time trade that could see a big name leave town this winter? We’ll talk about it coming up on Bshave Daily. [Music] What’s going on everyone and welcome in to this edition of B Shave Daily. Brendan Schaefer with you Wednesday, November 12th, 2025. Major League Baseball general managers meetings going on this week in Las Vegas. And we’re going to talk about a couple of the or really three of the key veterans for the St. Louis Cardinals that could be moved this off season and the temperature on all three. Jeff Jones of the Belleville News Democrat had a really insightful article for the BND on this exact topic titled Hot Stove Heats Up as Cardinals weigh trade options for Aronado Gray and Contraras. And I think the way that Jeff lined this up in his article for the Belleville News Democrat makes a lot of sense in terms of kind of the the likelihood, you know, getting a gauge for what Cardinals fans should really expect when it comes to these three players because we know the Cardinals are looking to take kind of more of a step back still, get rid of some payroll, find that foundation with some younger players, and then see what they have in house and be able to to see how quickly they can restock the cupboard in the draft in making moves, free agency trades, etc. at the appropriate time. But to do that first, I think this off season is going to involve continuing to kind of trim down what the current roster looks like. So Jeff talks about the uh the three bears of the off season. You know the story, the three bears, too big, too small, just right. He describes it that the list for Nolan Aronado, it’s a big one. he’s expecting to be moved and the Cardinals are expecting to be able to facilitate that for him and there’s a lot of potential places that he would be willing to go. I think it’s again, as I’ve said, the what Jeff is reporting here certainly matches the feeling that I have had about this since standing at Nolan Aronado’s locker on the final home game of the regular season in 2025 and hearing him talk about his time with the Cardinals in the uh very much the past tense. So, my full expectation is and I’m telling you, he will not be at spring training. I just I know Hein Bloom has said, “Look, if we can’t get anything done, he’s a future Hall of Fame player where we’d be more than happy to have him back in camp and and and have him on the team next year.” I see no path toward Aronado still being a Cardinal next year. It would shock me. I I don’t know if I said it quite in those um that strong of terminology last year. At this time, I certainly thought he would be gone. I see literally no path this time around. he’s going to go to any team that is even a quasi contender because I think when you get to the regular season and you look at what the expected win totals are going to be for this Cardinals roster, it’s going to be lower than what it was last year. 76 and a half I think was the preseason number and uh I think you’re going to get get a lower preseason expectation than that this time around. So Aronado knows this is not just like a kind of half halfway in halfway out retool. It’s you know we’re going to be demonstrabably worse in the way that we’re making moves. Now, that doesn’t mean the Cardinals can’t exceed expectations with young players and players that don’t have contracts u rising above their station and putting together a good 2026, but if you’re Aronado and where he is at this stage in his career, I I think the the writing is on the wall for him to be moved and for him to be pretty open to it. And the Cardinals uh for their part of it where Jeff says the team is in a committed lock step with Aronado when it comes to making that happen, that part of it means they’re going to have to eat some money. And I think they kind of realize that. Next on the list is Sunny Gray, who Jeff describes as being more in the middle. The player and the team would be happy to find a deal if one materializes, Jeff writes. Um, but it’s not a guarantee, and they’re not committing to that having to be the case in Sunny Gay’s situation with him having just one year remaining on the deal. It’s a lot of money. I think 35 million is the the price tag. And there’s a buyout on an option as well. And so, you’re talking about a nice chunk of change, but it’s only over the course of one year. In that case, I think you look at the season for Aronado last year and the season for Sunny Gray, uh, both disappointing in in their own ways, but I think Sunny Gray certainly given the position he plays and the performance that he put together, more likely to find some suitors in terms of teams maybe being willing to eat some of the money and or I should say not eat as much as pay for Sunny Gray to be part of their team. It is interesting though, Aronado was a 1.3 wins above replacement on baseball reference last year and Sunny Gray was a 1.4. So, not all too dissimilar, but when you look underlying for Gray, uh the the 180 innings, the 200 strikeouts for the second year in a row, had 14 wins. Uh those are some good stats. 4.28 RA and he was a slightly below average pitcher according to RRA Plus. His RA plus went from 107 in his first year with the Cardinals down to 96 this past season. So an 11 point drop and would imply that he was 4% below league average in the way that he performed this past season. Now I think kind of an outlier again he had two consecutive seasons where the home runs were an outlier. Is that just what he is going to be at this stage of his career? Gave up 25 homers in 2025. Gave up 21 homers the previous season. And you would think like, well, you’re playing half your games at Bush Stadium. On the road though, he would give up a ton of home runs. I don’t know if it was a case of maybe pitching a certain way because you know at home that you can get away with it versus on the road, it’s hard to just switch up and and change your your way that you’re approaching things and then you pay for it a little bit more on the road. I don’t know for sure if that’s maybe something that happened there, but u certainly, you know, we talked about the the heat of the summer. those types of environments were not always kind to Sunny Gray. But I just think about in terms of his value, even though the war numbers are pretty similar to Aronado and then the money is more significant on an AAV basis because they’re basically owed about the same amount, but Aronadoos is stretched over two years and Grays is just over one. I think when you think about starting pitching and being able to access maybe the the upper echelon of what Sunny Gray could bring just a couple of years ago was was bringing as the runner up for the American League Sai Young award with the Minnesota Twins. I feel like teams are going to be maybe a little bit more willing to take a chance on that and probably pay for that to some extent. Like I don’t know what the number is going to end up being, but if the Cardinals have to eat, you know, 15 million, but they can get out of get out from under the other 25 or whatever it is, is that something that they would be they would have an appetite for? Even if they’re not getting some premium return in a trade, like I don’t know what the scale on how much money the Cardinals eat versus how much they’re going to want a premium piece in return for Sunny Gray. I don’t know what that line’s going to be. With Aronado, I feel pretty confident it’s just get him out of here. whatever the the deal that we can get is the one we can get and we’re going to take it with Sunny. I think there’s going to be a little bit more of a willingness for the Cardinals because you know you need pitching and like I don’t want to see ownership just completely sell out and say oh yeah we’re going to slash the payroll at all costs and the reward for doing so is well there isn’t one we just don’t have to pay as much money to our players. Like that’s not going to help Cardinals fans. It would help Cardinals fans to see the team be just as quasi competitive as it can be. And look, I think Sunny Gay being one of the five next year is probably better than what the alternative would be, but also you would get a look at some of the other candidates within the organization, maybe a little bit sooner. I just don’t know if those candidates like a I mean, when you think about Quinn Matthews and Liam Doyle, those are kind of the big name guys that they certainly won’t want to rush along. But if Sunny’s not here, is there another guy that that was in double A last year or AAA last year that we’re not really thinking of as as being big league ready, but the Cardinals say, “Ah, this guy may not have a, you know, the ceiling anyway, and so we’re not going to put the kid gloves on him. We’re not we’re just going to say, look, if he impresses us in spring camp, maybe he wins a job. Maybe it’s maybe it’s more like Kyle Lehey who gets an opportunity because they’ve got a spot and and they’re, you know, they’re willing to try something.” I don’t know how much that changes with Gray being here versus him not being here. But I I do think the Cardinal’s appetite to hold on to him. Hopefully, if it’s not just a complete payroll dump uh would be a little bit higher and they could pick their spots on to whom they would trade Sunny, which of course he has a say in because of the no trade clause and whether they trade him at all or whether they, you know, what if he’s able to recover some value because he starts off the 2026 season hot and you trade him midsummer. Maybe maybe late June, right before it gets really hot into the dog days and his numbers potentially decline. Maybe the Cardinals look to move Sunny Gray at an opportune time in the middle of the next season where teams are going to be more willing to potentially give some prospects in exchange because once you’re halfway through the year, the money that you would have to pick up on that tab is is less substantial. And maybe he increases his value between now and then. He could always get hurt though and you’re on the hook for the whole 40 million. like there’s there’s risk associated with whatever path you decide to take, but I think that one’s going to be the most interesting because I would think that there are some places he would be willing to go, but it’s also probably limited because he when he signed with St. Louis, part of that conversation was geography. And Jeff writes about that in his article, which I really do recommend from the Belleville News Democrat. I’ll try to link that below here on YouTube so you can give it a look and get the full context of some of the topics we’re talking about here. But the the Nashville native uh is obviously relatively close to home in St. Louis when you think about u what the options are in this part of the country. There’s just not that many teams in the you know the the radius that you could draw around Nashville, Tennessee. Atlanta Braves would obviously be another one and the Braves you know had a very disappointing season but if they’re just looking to say hey the core of our roster and our organization is still strong. we should have expectations to go right in and and contend again in 2026 and we should have, you know, a willingness to spend some money to be able to facilitate that. Then maybe uh the Braves bringing in Walt Weiss as their new manager. So, they’re making a change at that spot uh from Brian Snicker. Maybe the the Braves are are ready to to run by, you know, run right back to the top of the NL East and uh maybe Sunny Gray would be an option there if they’re willing to to pick up a decent chunk of the tab and and maybe throw the Cardinals a prospect or something of that ilk, maybe that would be a fit. And Jeff writes about that. He also mentions the Washington Nationals. I’m not sure if I quite see the Nationals being a team as willing to uh to pick up the tab, but you know, that’s a bigger market and, you know, they could be closer to thinking they’re in a contending window than we’ve seen in recent years because their young core, all the guys they got from that Juan Sto trade are are really starting to contribute and um you know, maybe they could also flip McKenzie Gore. That’s something that’s a considered a possibility, too. So, if they would need a starter, I just don’t know how much they’re really looking to to add a one-year guy. But, uh, stranger things have happened. So, Sunny Gray, I think his limitation could definitely be related to geography in addition to just the desire to win. Like, I thought maybe the Giants would be an option. Um, I don’t know as far as the the managerial change there, whether that impacts it. Jeff had some some thoughts in the article about that maybe not being as plausible of a scenario because of the change in manager, but we’ll see with that one. That one’s an interesting one. Sunny Gray, whether or not he is around. I think if he’s not like it opens up the possibilities where we go, hey, do the Cardinals do something fun like sign an extra pitcher? Do they make a trade for somebody that they plug into a spot? Or do we get to see an internal candidate um maybe that in years past would not have gotten an opportunity so quickly. But you know what? Other organizations operate that way all the time and and sometimes those guys pan out and sometimes they don’t and and then you know you know that that guy’s not somebody you should be waiting around because I think when you have these pitchers that are prospects and you take you know two to three years and they kind of wallow around in AAA and we will they won’t they with his status and whether or not they’re going to consider somebody ready and then a guy comes up like you’ve you’ve spent the last couple of years maybe there’s a little bit more of an element of he’s got it or he Sometimes it’s about development, but sometimes it’s about throwing a guy out there and seeing what he does and and adjusting to see if you can’t bring the best out of that player. So, we’ll see what the Cardinals do with that and if they uh get an opportunity to uh to move Sunny Gray for fair value. Wilson Contreras is the other and uh Jeff writes that his interest in being moved is not particularly high at this point. Wants to be in St. Louis. We’ve known that. Um, it’s interesting too because he’s got the no trade clause and and I think some value as a as a bat who has consistently performed since he has been with the St. Louis Cardinals. His numbers last year a little bit lower, but still very productive. Uh 791 OPS. He’s gone 826, 848, and 791 in his three years with the Cardinals. Uh really solid numbers. Got another 20 home run season under his belt this past year. Ended the year with 80 RBI. That’s the highest that he has had in the three years with St. Louis. So, yeah, I think Wilson Contrarus certainly, you know, would have some value. Maybe a team would do something crazy and put him back at catcher, but I think the league had already sort of decided they didn’t they weren’t sold on him as a catcher when he went into free agency and the Cardinals were the team he ended up with. Like, I don’t know what the other options were going to be for Wilson Contrarus. Um, and and any team signing him probably was doing so more because of the bat. The Cardinals had the obvious opening at catcher and so they tried to to make it work. And I’m not saying that Wilson was even really ever given a fair shake of of what he was behind the plate. Um, but certainly at this point after not catching this past year would would be maybe more difficult to imagine him at at his age 34 season coming up uh as he turns 34 in May. Maybe more difficult to see him getting back into that type of role somewhere. Uh, so I think anybody looking to trade for him would be doing so for the bat, but you’d be getting a very productive one. Like I think Wilson Contrus is still a middle order bat when you think about somewhere two through six in in a contending lineup. I I absolutely think he fits that bill. And uh who knows, you know, if you you take him out of Bush Stadium where I don’t know offhand what the splits are, but I can take a look and see kind of where he was home versus road. But in theory, you know, you might have an easier time hitting in some other ballparks. And that was indeed the case for Wilson this past season. Uh 752 home ops, 824 on the road. It’s just a difficult place. It suppresses home runs. It uh suppresses runs and and offense. And so uh that was the case as well for Wilson in 2024. 781 OPS at home. 9007 on the road. I think you take Wilson Contrarus and put him into more of a a netneutral uh home ballpark. I think his numbers probably actually increase all three years checking out 2023. Less of a significant difference there that year, but he was an 804 at home and an 847 on the road. So all three years with the Cardinals, most of Cajaras has been a demonstrabably better hitter on the road. And I think uh that’s fair because it’s difficult to hit a bush. Difficult to to hit the way that he hits uh by by hitting home runs and uh you know being a power bat. I I think you can do that more easily in other ballparks and Bush Stadium is one of the toughest places to do it. So I think any team that would be getting him would be getting a good one. The question is going to be whether or not the Cardinals are uh well I guess there’s two questions. whether or not the Cardinals are, you know, what are they willing to take for him with a couple years remaining on that contract? Do do you accept him as a middle order bat in your lineup knowing that it’s more of a a first base DH conglomeration? And that’s kind of what Alec Berles can serve as as well. Or, you know, do the Cardinals say, “Hey, if we can get a piece that is cheaper and maybe a bat that can can give us a chance to replace Wilson Contreras down the road, whatever the position may be, or do you you try to get an arm because you need to use whatever you have at your disposal to get better in the pitching department.” And the other question is where is Wilson willing to go? And that could be a more difficult question to answer because he is happy to be in St. and and I think sees himself as a guy that could be, you know, a veteran presence on a young team and and and help kind of uh give back in that way and and be kind of a a stability element for the Cardinal, but also continue to be his fiery self and kind of show, you know, young guys that that could be a way to do things as well. So, I’ll be very curious to see what happens with all three of these guys. If I had to guess, as of today, I think Aronata will be gone. I think they will find a fit for Sunny Gray and trade him more likely than not. I’m 6040 on that one. I’m less of the belief that Wilson will be traded, but I it’s not I’m not going to rule it out entirely. I’ll go like 3070. 30 that he’s traded, uh 70 that he’s still here, but that certainly still uh leaves room for I think the Cardinals to quietly look for deals and then bring it to Wilson’s front door and say, “Hey, there this would be on the table for you. We know what you have said, but if this is something that works for you, um it works for us.” Now, how much time does he bloom spend like working on those deals knowing that it could happen the same way that it did with Aronado and and heck, in that case, John Mo had a list and Houston was on it and spent resources and time and energy trying to put together the deal and then still to be told no. I don’t know exactly how hard the Cardinals will work for a a a deal without knowing, you know, that Wilson may have sort of an appetite for it. Look, if there’s some preliminary talks with the team, could they easily go to him and say, “Hey, we might have a framework here with with XYZ, would that be a place you’re willing to go?” And if if you if you think it is, then we’ll continue down this path. If not, totally get it. And, you know, we’ll be happy to have you, but you know the circumstances as well as we do, and so we’re going to at least bring this to you and let you decide. I think that would be a a more than appropriate way to handle it. We’ll see the way that the Cardinal do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it do it but let me know who do you think of these three bigname stars will be traded by the Cardinals this off seasonason and and who do you think might still be around when we get to Jupiter in February of 2026. That’ll do it for this edition of the show. Appreciate you guys for tuning in and we will talk to you next time on Bshave Daily. Peace.

Brenden Schaeffer discusses a recent report from Jeff Jones detailing the landscape for the Cardinals entering trade possibilities for each of their big three veteran players with no-trade clauses and hefty contracts.

For full context for this conversation, read the article in the BND here: https://www.bnd.com/sports/mlb/st-louis-cardinals/article312863194.html

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