NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Seahawks-Rams, Chiefs-Broncos, Lions-Eagles, Bucs-Bills | 3 & Out

NFL Week 11 Best Bets: Seahawks-Rams, Chiefs-Broncos, Lions-Eagles, Bucs-Bills | 3 & Out

What’s up everybody? I’m John Middlec. You know what I need you to do? Subscribe to our YouTube channel. We got content for days reacting to every NFL game all the time, every single day. Subscribe, like the videos. Let’s go. Before we dive into any football though, my friends own pouches. Product contains nicotine. Nicotine is addictive chemical. Underage sale prohibited. If you’re as competitive as I am, you’re always looking for something to help you stay dialed in. And for me, that thing is zone nicotine pouches. You won’t catch me without one. I just was slamming my mints watching that game. I had one before dinner, had one after dinner. I’ll have one probably before I go to sleep. So, not to mention 20 pouches per can versus 15 the other guys offer. Choose zone and dominate the day. Use the promo code number three and out 20 on niko kick.com for 20% off at checkout. Okay, back at it again. It’s been a rough rough little stretch for your boy here, Stucky. Um, you can find my main man Stucky. Action Network, big bets on campus. You got college basketball in full swing. College football coming down the home stretch. I don’t even know what week it is for the NFL, but we’re headed into the fun time. November, December. It’s when you start turning on the TV and you see, you know, I can’t relate. It’s 80° where I’m at, but watching Wisconsin uh play Washington, I’m like, “That looks so cold.” And then the next day watching the Bears game, I’m like, “No, I I I can’t do but it makes uh it’s it’s football weather. So, Stucky, what is happening? What’s going on?” Yeah. Uh I was I had a good run up until last Sunday. Had a bad Sunday. Um just a couple bad calls, but that’ll happen. Uh it’s on to week 11. Crazy that we’re already at week 11. Uh more some more like at least we have Lions Eagles on Sunday night, but the other prime time games and Island games. O I like I mean we got we’re recording this on Thursday. We have Jets Pats tonight. We have Commanders Dolphins in Mad in Madrid and then Cowboys Raiders on Monday night. And that’s terrible. Yeah, that’s awful. And we haven’t had a like a really compelling exciting prime time game since like midocctober. Like Steelers, Bengals. It’s been that long. I like it’s been it’s been bad. And like I felt overall that the NFL this year has been like the most boring it’s ever been for me. And a lot of that is there’s there’s a lot of bad teams, a lot of bad teams in the NFL. And like right now there’s 14 I think there’s 14 teams. There’s 14 teams that make the playoffs. There’s 14 teams that are like minus 300 or more or better to make the playoffs which just shows you that like there’s a lot and this it’s only a week 11. There’s a lot of drags in the league and the NFL is like now cons and I’m going to watch every NFL game. Uh I mean but they they have me but when you have when they’re when they’re like slowly taking over so many different time slots, right? and they’re just trying to I we’re not even at the like holiday weeks when they be playing on Wednesdays and Fridays, but when they take over so many time slots and the games aren’t compelling because there’s so many bad teams, it it kind of wears on you and it kind of loses its luster a little bit and then it takes away from like the late slate. So on a Sunday, right, you don’t have as many games and then you’re more at risk of just having three blowouts like we did last Sunday. Um, so yeah, we’ve kind of hit the dog days of the season, but this weekend at least we have a couple really compelling games, but uh yeah, without betting uh it would be way less interesting of a season. And uh I’m excited for the playoffs in particular the NFC playoffs, which I think can be are going to be really exciting this year. Well, I want to piggyback off that point because let’s look at the Monday night game. The Green Bay team has three of their loss, I guess their three losses, right? They they scored 13 points, seven points, and like 10 points. So, they’re not an entertaining team to watch of I don’t need 40 points, but Well, neither are the Eagles. The Eagles might be the most boring team in the NFL. They lead the league in three and outs. I didn’t know that till Aman and Buck said that. I was like, Jesus, I I the more and more I hear AJ, I go I kind of side with the guy. I mean, he’s what? He’s not It’s not just like Antonio Brown craziness. Every time he speaks, it’s like he is kind of just saying factual statements here. Like, take me off my fantasy team. Our offense is broken. We have strengths. We don’t use them. It’s like, well, he’s not wrong. He’s not saying like he’s not at least publicly calling out Jaylen or the coach. He’s just saying the facts. And then you look at Denver, who in theory is a dominant, you know, one of the best defenses in recent memory. the Bo Knicks is unwatchable, right? The 49ers who or the Bears, one of those two teams going to make the playoffs. And the Bears can look horrendous in these games. The Niners are playing me and you on defense. So, it’s like, yeah, part of the problem is of the 14 teams, the Chiefs, I mean, they’re going to end up with 10 or 11 wins and they’re just kind of a weird version of themselves this year. So, it’s it’s just a little offkilter. That’s why it’s like, oh, the Bills, they should this is their year. And then you watch him play the Dolphins get [ __ ] curb stomped. It’s like is that is Chanty Bilips coaching him? Yeah. I I mean then you have in the What the hell was the hell was that? I I I I loved him nine and a half cuz I was like okay they can take that momentum and you honestly knew right away especially when it was raining you’re like they’re not going to come storming back and win this game like 40 to 25. That’s not going to happen. Yeah. Yeah, it was one of those weird games in Miami where like they were just hung over from the big win and were just flat and they were in a days humid. I don’t know if they were out in Miami. Who knows? But what about the interception Josh threw? It’s like, bro, he wasn’t even looking at you. What do you fumble on a quarterback sneak? It was just a a sloppy sloppy allaround game. Yeah. Yeah, I mean the one seed in the AFC is the Colts and like they got Daniel Jones at quarterback who over the past couple weeks has reverted to some old bad habits uh with they easily they easily could have lost if the kickoff rule wasn’t changed and give them an advantage. I mean they’re they’re probably losing that game. I I remember I was actually on Twitter right when when Sauce flipped and you were like he got cooked. It’s like God that was not a great look. If anyone you you trade for him to match up against guys like Drake London, can’t cover him. Who can you cover? Yeah. I mean, drop. Yeah. Drop like Jones had a pick three fumbles, was sacked six times. Um and he’s he’s starting to look like old Daniel Jones under pressure, which is worrisome um going in to the playoffs. But yeah, there’s the going back to the Eagles and and Packers points, the Packers have a Super Bowl caliber defense. I don’t think there’s any doubting that. And I mean, like you mentioned, the games that they lo they have three losses where they didn’t give up more than 16 points. Yeah, the the the 16 points for the Panthers, 10 points for the Eagles, and 13 points for the Browns. They lost all those games. Yeah, they I mean they can get pressure. Their co their coverage on the back end has been excellent. They don’t really have any weaknesses on defense. Now, the that’s what was so intriguing to me about the Packers adding Parsons with half another year in Halfley system that this defense could be top five caliber to match an offense which I thought was going to be top five caliber, but it’s it’s simply not right now. And their injuries haven’t helped, right? They have a lot of injuries at wide receiver. Losing Tucker Craft was killer and they have to figure out he was the safety blanket, the red zone guy, the third down guy. They have to figure out life after him. They also just lost their center Elen Jenkins who went on IR. So, the injuries are starting to mount up, but they’re they get too conservative at times and like they were it’s almost and it was a bad like you mentioned it was a huge game for the floor and I thought it was a really bad game from the floor in in the sense that I mean they had a four they had a they probably would have won maybe would have won the game if they completed a long pass to Watson and I think the game was 77 107 at the time or 33 something like that. They completed a long pass to Watson in the red zone but there was an illegal formation. One of the tackles Darian Canard who went to Kentucky he came in and like didn’t report and like it it was the it was the play action play where they hit him kind of coming across the the middle and then they ended up punting on that. Um then you had a fourth and one where they they called the false start on the pushbush and then they had a punt which was ironic against the Eagles. Uh which I they apparently they can’t see false starts on this play. I I don’t understand how they can’t when everyone else can see it. But then you had the fourth and one at the end of the game and like the second to last drive the Eagles are calling out the play and like you’re running an inside zone with your your center just got hurt and the Eagles blew it up and then they they had an illegal formation on that play too. So even if they would have got it, they would have gone back 5 yards formations on two massive plays which the the the play action one to Watson that is clearly like a high-end Shanahan McVey Laflur. They work on that play. They scheme it up. They have it in a perfect spot and the players [ __ ] it up. Like I’m sorry that is on the coach. Yeah. Like everyone has to know what they’re doing to line up. It’s one thing if you trip and fall running around to not line up or report. It’s like that’s embarrassing. That was that was the first moment where I went, “Oh, he’s in trouble.” Yeah. And then he tried like trying a 64 yard outdoors with um I mean I know you’re not going to get a Hail Mary, although you’re the you’re like the that’s the king of Hail Marys. Uh Green Bay. Now Love doesn’t throw like Rogers, but um like you McManis, who’s been horrendous all year, who’s like has a bum leg. I don’t know why they didn’t try. They have another kicker on their roster, Havchek or whatever his name is, who’s hit a 62 yard. I don’t know why they didn’t trot him out there, but he’s not making that from 64. Um, so I thought that was a bizarre decision. I mean, you’re you’re stuck between a rock and a hard place, but I’m a big Leaf Four guy or was coming in the year, but that was it’s been a rough stretch. So, yeah, they have to figure out their offense. Now, this week against the Giants, you can just like turn around and hand it off to Jacobs a bunch because the Giants can’t defend the run. Um but yeah, a couple weeks like they go to Detroit and that was a big swing game for them in the NFC playoff standings and like you don’t want getting the buy in the NFC is going to be so important. Like you you could be matched up with the Rams or you could you could be matched up with the Rams or the Seahawks in the first round. Um the Eagles again like it’s there’s no real easy path in the NFC. And then on the Eagles front too, it’s the same thing. their defense which had been you know around average all year I think is starting to round in the form you saw the addition of Jaylen Phillips to Vic Fangio defense they’re going to get better as the year goes on but that was the offense out of the buy look no different like the offensive line isn’t as good as last year so Barkley can’t get going there’s no creativity in the offense like there’s no motion there’s no play action it’s shot they’ve used like jumbo packages a little bit recently which has led to some more success But as far as like just the overall creativity of the offense, it’s like the Packers, it looked like the Packers had the Eagles playbook the entire game. I mean, there there was basically just like two good plays. Like they had a dump off to Barkley, which was off script. And the long pass to Devonte Smith. Other than that, the offense didn’t do anything the entire game. So, as of right now, I mean, it doesn’t look like neither one of these offenses are capable of getting through the NFC, but that could change by the end of the season. And uh we shall see. We’ll get another good good data point on uh the Eagles offense this week against Detroit. Today’s show is brought to you by our new presenting sponsor, Hard Rock Bet. We talk a lot of football here on 3 and Out, but there’s so much more to bet on. The NBA is obviously in full swing. I was watching Michigan State and Arkansas play basketball. College hoops is back. Even the NHL is rock and rolling. So, if you haven’t tried your first bet yet on Hard Rock Bet, there’s still time for you to get a 150 in bonus bets. If you win, just place a $5 bet, and if it hits, you not only get your winnings, but an extra 150 in bonus bets. The Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook app is the only legal sports book for whenever you’re in Florida. And it’s also live in Arizona, Ohio, Jersey, Indiana, Tennessee, Virginia, Illinois, and Colorado. So download the Hard Rock Bet app today and make your first deposit. All these lines are presented to you by my friends at Hard Rock Bet. Let’s dive into uh another team that’s pretty I would say polarizing right now because a month ago you’d be like this could be a Super Bowl. Tampa going to Buffalo. Obviously Tampa’s had a bunch of injuries so it’s hard to judge them. I I think we all believe when they’re fully healthy they’re really good. Buffalo I’m not so sure. Uh, and I I think for the first time like with Laflur, I went this McDermott thing like you you can only have so many runs before people because you become a product of your own success. Like, yeah, you’ve you’ve won this division. Well, now it looks like you might not win the division. It’s like, well, your offense dominated. Well, now it’s struggling. And then you go to Miami, everyone’s making fun of their franchise, their coach, and not only do they clown you, you got the head coach driving by your team’s bar like laughing at you guys. Those are the type moments that as cheesy as it might sound like start owners pay attention to this [ __ ] and all of a sudden you don’t win the division. You something weird happens depending on the matchup. Wildcard weekend. Now I I would like Buffalo like at Indie probably like I’m not betting against Josh Allen against Daniel Jones, but who knows what if they’re just they just have way better team. We saw with Baltimore the last two times you guys have played like Baltimore has no business losing the Bills. They have better players, but Josh and and turnovers. I I’m tempted to take Tampa in this spot, but I I just I don’t trust what Buffalo team I’m getting. You’d think they’re going to be motivated because coming off this loss at home, but what if this thing just starts getting weird? What if this just that time where this was the pivot point and this ends up costing kind of the uh you know, Shawn McDerman who’s done a really good job? I mean, he helped resurrect this franchise with Josh, but it does feel like they’ve kind of petered out now. Well, the over like the the favorite the matchup to that were most likely to get cuz now the Patriots have a decent lead in the division with a game in hand with a win in Buffalo and they have a really easy schedule the rest of the way. So, the most likely end point for the Bills, if they make the playoffs, I’m assuming they do, is the five seed. And that means they are most likely going to Baltimore. Uh, who’s now who’s favored, a decent favorite to win the AFC North. And the Ravens are probably going to get if they do, they’ll get like nine or 10 wins, which means they’ll probably be the four seed. So yeah, Buffalo instead of with this really easy schedule that they had the favorite to get the one seed going into the season, instead of having a buy in home field advantage throughout, it looks like as of right now, just based on how it looks, they might have to go to Baltimore in the first round, which uh is not ideal. So yeah, I mean I I do expect a game effort from the Bills. It looks like a lot of their defenders are were practicing on a limited fashion yesterday. So, I think they’ll be relatively healthy on that side of the ball. They’re I mean, usually this team loses like at home once every two years. Um, but and they did it this year against the Patriots, but we saw them beat the Chiefs. I The Bucks just are not they’re kind of broken right now. I mean, if you look over the past month, and a lot of that has to do with health, right? Their offensive line isn’t healthy. Bucky Irving remains out. Without Bucky Irving, like the run game goes in the tank, and the run game just isn’t as good without Liam Cohen there. You also have Mike Evans on IR. You say Bucky Irving was a big part of Liam Cohen getting a job. Like his success and his like how they were one of the worst rushing teams for years. He be he gets there, looks awesome, Liam becomes a star. Yep. And then like the Bucks last year were like the best screen team of all time too. Uh if you look at like advanced numbers and Bucky Irving was a huge part of that. So without him like the run game, the screen game isn’t as good. But more importantly, I don’t think Baker’s healthy. And I mean they came out of the buy against New England and then they got a late garbage time touchdown, but they only had 16 points before then. Baker hasn’t scrambled in four weeks like so he was dealing with like a groin and some like and so I figured after the buy he would look a lot fresher more healthy but he didn’t really scramble again last week so I’m not sure he’s and a lot of what the Bucks do is um and I know Baker had good numbers last week but it’s not a great Patriots passive but I I’m just talking about just watching him he wasn’t scrambling at all I mean he no rush attempts and a lot of what keeps their drives going and creates explosive plays is when he’s moving around and he’s going to need to do that against the Bills who can get pressure. So the the Tampa Bay offense right now is just not a well boiled machine and it’s not operating at peak efficiency. I mean like yeah they put up 30 on San Fran but that San Francisco I mean that’s when Warner went down they they got they can’t stop anybody. Then you saw them go to Detroit and Baker just looked off and they were and Detroit was playing a bunch of backups in the secondary against New Orleans the following week. Yeah, they scored 23, but there was like a pick six. Baker was 15 to 24 for 150 yards. They only rushed for three yards a carry. I mean, they only they finished that game with 212 total yards of offense. And then last week it it just didn’t look all the way there. So, um, if I had to bet this game, my I mean, my favorite look at it is probably the under. It’s come down a little bit, but there’s going to be some weather and the way to attack this Bills defense is with the run. They they struggle to defend the run, but Tampa’s rushing offense not there right now. Baker not really running and moving that well. And the Bills want to run the ball a lot, sometimes too much when you have Josh Allen, but the Bucks arguably have the best run defense in the NFL. So, I think there’s a lot of paths to where, you know, both defenses are getting stops. You throw in the weather here as well. Let me look at the updated weather. Yeah, there’s going to be wind, which might dampen some of the downfield shots u that both of these quarterbacks are certainly capable of hitting. uh concade banged up for the Bills as well. So yeah, I mean I wouldn’t blame you for taking the points, but my I think my best look is the under in that game. There’s there’s something off with this Tampa offense right now, but the Bills have been very jackal and hide all year. Well, I got to tell you about my friends, my partners, and the official ticketing app of this podcast game time. If you want to go to a professional football game, if I’m a Patriot fan, I I might taken the last couple years off. I’m back. If you want to go see your team at home, on the road, obviously any college games, game time’s the best. You can get in to one of these games for as low as a $100. There are no hidden fees. The number you see wherever you click on the ticket in the stadium, in the arena, is the price you pay at checkout. So many of these these apps have these hidden fees. You see a price, then you go to checkout, and the number is 20 30% more. That’s not the case. The number you see is the number you pay. They got flash deals. I cannot recommend these guys enough. So, take the guesswork out of buying professional football tickets. Download the Game Time app. Create an account. Use the code John. That’s JHN for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Again, create an account. Redeem the code John for $20 off. Download the Game Time app today. Last minute tickets. Lowest price is guaranteed. The NFC West is doing a little roundroin these last two weeks. Seattle hosted Arizona. The NerS hosted the Rams. Now, the Niners are going to Arizona and Seattle is going to LA. Uh Kyle said yesterday before we dive into the big game, Kyle said yesterday that all signs, unless there’s a setback in the next 24, 48 hours, that party’s probably going to start, which I do think is a little risky in the sense that M. Jones been really good and especially like I mean he has destroyed the Rams, right? If the 49ers had their normal defense, they they would have been right in that game. They just had no chance to slow them down. But offensively, they kind of did whatever they wanted. And you know, Perty coming back, Pearaw might come back. The Cardinals obviously lose. Harrison, they’re kind of in shambles. Uh but I I would imagine I guess that that that final score didn’t kind of hold up of like the 30 or 40 point beat down because Donald kind of fell apart in the second half. So it looked a lot closer than it was. I mean, it was 35 nothing pretty quick. that that feels like one of the faster 35 nothing accomplishments in league history cuz it was 20 to one nothing before you could even blank. And I I guess I I listen if comes back you just better win cuz if you were to lose and he were to play bad obviously when you pay a guy $180 million I’m not acting like there’s a quarterback controversy but the other quarterback was playing well. You bring this guy in off the shelf for basically a month and a half. I I I just now there is going to be a Niner home game in Arizona, especially with how shitty Arizona is. Might be like 95% Niner fans, but I do think there’s some pressure of pretty plays to like look kind of good because the other guys kind of rolling. Yeah. I mean, I’m tempted to I’m taking the Niners minus three, but that defense makes me nervous. I just wonder if the Cardinals are start going to do a little one, two, three, uh Rosarita. Yeah, I’m I’m tempted to take the three, but like it’s the Cardinals are a mess right now. I mean, like it’s how many times can they throw to McBride here, but I mean the 49ers cannot generate any pressure at all now. Their defense can’t stop anybody. I mean like I I don’t care who you have out there. The Cardinals are probably going to move the ball. It’s going to be like Greg Dorch, Michael Jones broke his leg or something something like that. Yeah. No Harrison. They have some offensive line questions. The defense too is also really banged up. They were without two starting corners last week. Mack Wilson, they couldn’t even practice on Wednesday. They had too many injuries. Yeah. Uh their defensive line has injuries. Linebacker, secondary. So, they just might be too decimated to do anything. But it’s hard to trust this 49ers laying like asking them to win by margin with the state of their defense. I mean, it has been they just have no one left. The injuries have been horrifying. And this was a start, we talked about this all year. This was a stars and scrubs built defense that, you know, they had a mass, it was the biggest free agency exodus of defensive players moneywise in the offseason that we’ve ever seen. So, they said, “Okay, well, we we still have Bosa. We still have Warner.” Well, now you don’t. And uh then you even have more injuries after that. So, um yeah, it’s it’s it’s a tough tough scene for that defense. And the other thing that I’ll I’ll mention because it is a bit risky and with Pury because number one I mean I’m sure they wouldn’t put him out there unless he was 100% healthy. But I mean maybe at maybe at home against the Panthers next week would be a good spot. This is a nice runway. like you’re at Arizona, you’re home against the Panthers before you go to Cleveland where you lost last year and that that defense is is going to be good at home, but there’s there’s potential for rust. Like we see this all the time. That’s what I’m saying. That’s my point. Yeah. Who have been off for a while and now you’re taking this offense that has been humming. I mean over the past month and a half. I mean what M. Jones throw for what, seven like 650 combined yards against the Rams uh in a split and the offense has not been the problem. Um and you know against the Texans that’s like the best defense in the league and the defense couldn’t get off the field uh in that game and and and the Texans were playing without all their receivers. So you got to remember that game like Arizona doesn’t have the receivers. The Texans didn’t have any receivers in that game. a really bad offensive line and basically just held the ball the entire game because the 49ers couldn’t get off the field. So, there’s a path where the the Cardinals can do something similar. Um, but that’s what I would worry about. It’s like that first game, is there rust? And then like how long does it take for him to get going and shake it off? Because this def with this defense, you might be in a hole. My logic on this one’s pretty simple. We talked about it last week. I I think the difference between Seattle and LA, and it was on full display with M. Jones throwing with with his eyes closed for 300 yards to random guys, is the LA secondary is just not very good. And I I I think Seattle secondary is really good. Now, I think that the thing you would be nervous of, like obviously Darnold, I I don’t even count the second half, has been remarkable. And Stafford feels like he’s playing. It’s pretty crazy to think back like three months ago that it’s like I might be out on the Rams cuz his back’s [ __ ] And it’s like, well, he looks fine to me level. But it doesn’t even feel like he was rope doping. It’s like his back was legitimately hurt. But unlike Kershaw just like magically went away and he’s fine. And Devonte did get banged up in that game. I I saw this morning that it looks like he’s going to play. He’s got eight touchdowns. I mean, if if you sign a guy and he brings you 12 or 14 touchdowns, a running back or a wide receiver, that’s an incredible signing, you know? So, and Devonte and him look like they have Aaron Rodgers level rapport, but I I just think the difference in this game is Seattle secondary. I mean, LA can’t cover anybody. So, I I’m I I don’t like I love Seattle plus three. I I also think I’m not saying like 49er level, but I do think there’s going to be a lot of Seahawks fans there. And this is the thing with these LA teams, they don’t really have homefield advantages. This is not I would argue it’s like the worst in the league for teams that matter. Yeah. I mean, and Seattle’s traveled really well under McDonald. I mean, they’ve arguably been better on the road than at home in in his tenure. They lost one game. I mean, they they very Yeah, they I think they were like nine and one over the past 10 road games. Um I yeah I mean I made this case I made this case last week when I was talking about the over the 49ers Rams over in that I think that the Rams defense is overrated because over the past month they they played Tyler Shuck in the Saints. They played the Ravens with Cooper Rush pretty good last week though. You watch that you watched Chuck last week looked pretty good. He did. Uh he yeah he had he showed some signs um that at least the Saints fans have something to look forward to at least for the time being in another lost season. But you know they for based on who they played and then you look like remember the first time M. Jones without KD without his receivers carved them up and then he did it again. Their weakness is clearly their secondary. And then I could make the I could also make the case that the Seahawks, their defense is underrated at the moment because they played a they played a large stretch of the season with a lot of injuries in the secondary. They’ve had some guys step up. They’re getting healthier on the back end. And this is a front much like the Rams that can get pressure without blitzing which gives you so much flexibility and allows you to cover so much more efficiently. So yeah, I mean I think that the clear weak unit in this game is the 49ers I mean excuse me the the Rams secondary. So taking the three I I I don’t hate it. We’ll see if now this is a completely different offense for Darn. Can the Rams win the Super Bowl, let alone the division with a secondary that just can’t cover people in a passing league? It’s It’s going to be tough. But like if you look at who like what passing offense really really scares you in the NFC playoffs. So it’s certainly not the Eagles, right? Like they can I mean they should have won in Philly. Um but again their secondary Philly’s offense came to life for it was like the third the only time they they put up like 26 points in the second half but that’s Seattle the the ners if that’s like a 27 let’s say they won the division would just they were just comfortable playing them. Yeah but I just don’t the ners defense is not going to be in a state where they can beat the Rams I don’t think. Um you know so Detroit is probably the team that you’d worry about. May maybe Tampa if they’re healthy. So that there are some teams uh there there are some games where the Rams are probably going to have to outscore just winning a shootout uh I think in the NFC playoffs. Um depending on their path, but they actually match up pretty well against the Eagles then, huh? like the secondary doesn’t kill you if they’re not it’s not like the just I mean they almost won in Philly in the snow last year which with like that was not an ideal situation and road environment in the snow playing Barkley. Um and they had a chance to win that game at the end. Um and then obviously we’re up 267 this year in Philly. So yeah, I I think it’s a decent matchup for the Rams that they they wouldn’t mind having to play the Eagles. Um, but these are two, you know, these are really interesting teams that they’re kind of ahead of the curve and it’s kind of the the new, you know, most efficient way to move the ball in the NFL is using heavy personnel and throwing out of it and just causing and the Ravens have done this for the past couple years which has made their offense such a matchup nightmare because you’ve had years of, you know, 11 personnel spread and defenses have adjusted, right? And then that’s how they built their defenses. Well, now I mean it’s a cyclical league and it’s cat and mouse, you know, robber and and cop, you know, criminal and cop type of just back and forth. And now offenses are starting to adjust and go a little heavier and throwing out of that. That’s what the the the Seahawks have done a lot of. like they don’t run the ball very well, but they use that run to kind of set up the pass, set up their play action out of heavy personnel, create mismatches. And the Rams have really leaned into it over the past month. Over the past month, they’ve used 13 personnel 40% of the time, three tight ends on the field. Uh they’re like, and they’re just ripping defenses apart with it. That’s a fascinating chess match in this game. Not only do you have McVey vers, which is awesome, but you have these two teams that are, you know, kind of ahead of the rest of the NFL with how they’re moving the ball, but both offenses know, you know, both teams know that they play against it. So, who can make the the better adjustments against these unique offensive formations? Really interesting. But, uh, I I don’t mind taking the points here. I can’t wait for this game. These are two teams that keep winning and keep covering. They’re both, I believe, both seven and two straight up and seven and two against the spread. Two best in the league. Uh so yeah, I mean taking the field goal, uh I I think makes sense. Well, that that’s the Millennial coaching match up with McDonald and McVey. This is the Boomer coaching match up with Andy and Peyton. Uh I looked earlier today that now granted week 18 last year, the Chiefs had already wrapped it up and I don’t know if we’re playing for much. Bo Knicks I think threw for over 300 yards against them, but I do remember him playing like decently well against them in the game that they missed a field goal or had a field goal blocked right at home in the middle of the season. Now the version that we have seen lately is just it’s it’s been tough to watch. I I saw his a little some clips of his press conference kind of trying to downplay, you know, criticism and just trying to have fun and the entertainment value like this just we we make too big a deal. It’s like Bo, you’ve been making millions of dollars playing this sport since college, buddy. Like, this is this isn’t just like fun in games here. Like, this is a huge business. You’re feeling the pressure. You’re clearly not playing well. You lost your confidence, but this isn’t like a uncommon opponent, right, for a for a young player. He has seen these guys a couple times. I would imagine this is the type team that over the off season, uh, you know, in OTAAS or whatever, they put some periods in. This is something that is talked about in that building probably over and over and over, you know, through training camp, right, before the season starts. So, this is a this is a huge spot. I’m I’m tempted to just take the home team with the points. But I I would be kicking myself if all of a sudden, you know, it’s 17-7 and he’s just skipping balls and looking like he’s looked. It’s like, how did I put any money on Bo Knicks? But just out of principle, they have what, 46 sacks this year. The defense is awesome. Uh, you know, Chiefs, I guess they get Simmons back, which is big. So, I I I it’s it’s hard to bet against the Chiefs, even though it’s like, God, you’re they’re a huge home dog and they’re eight and two. It’s pretty crazy with the best defense in the league. Yeah. I mean, you have to they’re a little banged up, the Broncos as well. Um, I mean, I don’t think Certan’s going to play again. uh Singleton at linebacker. Uh they have a couple injuries at linebacker, but Certana is the big one. Like their defense is not the same without him. Now, they’ve won two straight, but they beat the Raiders and they beat the Texans after Straoud got hurt. That’s who they played since Certam went out. Not exactly among, you know, they’re the best offenses in the league. Now you’re going up against Mahomes. This sets up as just a pure Chief spot. like they’re coming off of a buy. It’s close to a must-win. I mean, it’s insane. As of right now, the Chiefs aren’t in the playoffs. The season ended today. They’re not in the playoffs. And if they lose this game, like the division. Well, they if they lose and the Jags beat the Chargers, they would be in some trouble, wouldn’t they? Yes. Yeah. Jags, Chargers, huge game. The biggest leverage game of the weekend. Jags win, they go, I think, 60% to make the playoffs. If they lose, it’s down to like 20. If the Chargers win, it’s up to like 8590. If they lose, it’s a coin flip. Huge game. Uh among teams that are battling each other because you get like the headtohead as well. Who are the Chiefs rooting for in that game? Uh that’s probably the Jags to just go away. That’s a good question. Um they lost to both. So um I looked at the Charger schedule this morning. It actually gets pretty hard. Like I mean they still got a lot of good teams on. It’s not like they have a bunch of like Raiders and Panthers on there. Yeah. And the Chiefs host them. Um that’s a tough one. I mean the Jags schedule at the end gets pretty easy. Um that was a killer loss to the Texans when they blew that lead. But they get they had the Jets, they had the Titans twice, they have the Cardinals after this. So, you know, there’s like four really win Chargers still play the Eagles, they go to Kansas City, they have to go to Dallas, they play the Texans, which is going to be a tough match up for them with their O line and they go to Denver. So, I mean, it’s some of these matchups with their O line are going to be really, really challenging. Yeah. Um, yeah, they might be rooting for the Jags. Um, but that’s a good question. I’ll have to look into that. They just need to win before they can root for anybody. Yes. But like this sets up as a cheap spot. I mean, the the Broncos have been I mean, it’s it they’ve been fool’s gold all year. I mean, the defense is really good, but now it’s it’s not healthy. And I mean, you’re talking about a team that and Bo Nix’s has is playing horrendously, like so many offtarget throws and so many misses downfield. And this is a team, I mean, you look at their their when he’s looked good and Bick’s numbers get into sad territory. If you remove the Cowboys game at home and the Bengals game at home, and those are two defenses that are historically bad, you look at the rest of the schedule, I mean, they beat the Jets by two, who threw forgative -10 passing yards. They beat the Giants by one, they were down, they didn’t score in the first three quarters, and the Giants set to go prevent. They all their secondary guys get hurt and they come back, they win by one. They beat the Texans by three. probably lose that game if Stra doesn’t get hurt. They only put up 18 points and then they only put up 10 against the Raiders defense and it didn’t look great. So yeah, I mean they’re just they’re a ticking time bomb and this is he was he was horrendous on Thursday Night Football. It was bad. Really was. Um they have so many come from I mean I think they’re one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, seven and one seven and two in one score games. like they become the Chiefs and the Chiefs can’t win a close game this year. Now granted, they went 11 and0 last year. That that stuff tends to revert, but the Chiefs are 0 and2 0 and3. The Chiefs are 0 and4 in one possession games this year. So this all this all sets up for like a Chiefs close win. And I but the numbers matter and like this is three and a half. That’s expensive. I mean, you’re paying for the spot and you’re paying for everyone pretty much knowing that the Broncos are a bit of a fraud and banged up and the Chiefs really need this game. So, I would imagine like the sharper side is the Broncos, but I’ll probably have the Chiefs some form or fashion. Maybe like a square moneyline parlay or something. I but I can’t get to the number to like show value in wanting to lay three and a half, four points on the road. Denver’s still a great homefield advantage. Still a really good defense. Um that can get pressure. So, but if Knicks is a disaster, uh they’re going to get blown out. So, he’s going to have to play better. Uh, I’m going Lions Sunday Night Football. Uh looking at the schedule, if you just looked at the Eagles, if they split the Packers Lions game, they were going to be in great shape because they go they got Dallas, they get the Raiders, they get the Commanders, they get the Bears at home, you know, on uh Thanksgiving, Black Friday, they get the Commanders again, you know, they set it up for like thinking Eagles Commanders were going to come down to the wire and now the Eagles get to lick their chops, you know, with playing them two of the last three games. Now, the one really hard game after the Lions is at Buffalo, but I I don’t think this is must win when you kind of look around the NFC, even though obviously you would say going into it, you know, they’re probably more likely to win at home against Detroit outdoors than they would travel to Green Bay. And, you know, they easily could have lost that game if Green Bay just pulls their head out of their ass. But I I don’t know, man. And I I just Dan Campbell hard to judge playing the Dan Quinn just atrocious defense right now. But I think Dan Campbell might have found a little mojo. And and what I think is big is Dan’s really good at understanding his players and I think they started turning on the other guy, right? So it’s like Dan’s been part of the game plan. I’m I’m I’m not comparing him to Ben Johnson as a play caller, but like he works hand in hand. Like he he knew the he’s on the headset. So, it’s like he knows his guys really well. I just think that’s a huge motivational lift of like when players, especially veteran, allpro, Pro Bowl guys, turn on a coach, especially if he’s somewhat of an outsider. I saw this with the 49ers when Fred Warner and Nick Bosa were like, “We don’t [ __ ] with this Steve Wes guy. Like, we we just don’t believe he knows what he’s doing.” And when that happens, it’s it’s even high-end guys can kind of just kind of go into a tank. We’re all human beings. And I do wonder if Dan Campbell just gave them a little life putting on those glasses and calling I don’t know, just pretty basic plays to Jameson Williams. Yeah, that I mean, yeah, they finally leaned into the pass more. I talked about this last week. I mean, I I bet the Commanders. What a what an amazing bet last week. But I I talked about how the Lions offense had gone into a tank in into the tank for the past month and they couldn’t run the ball at all. A lot of that had to do with the offensive line not being as good, offensive line injuries, the interior not being as good, but if you look at like pass rush, I mean pass rate over expectation. This is the first game all year that they were positive. Now, so at Morton, I just I I didn’t like the play calling and then they went and changed it and you had Campbell. Where I’m struggling with this game is I mean the Eagles are are also like a ticking timeout. I mean they’ve gone six and one in one possession games. They could have lost. I mean you had Kelsey drop that pass in the end zone. The Rams the blocked field goal. Um you know you had the Vikings who were in the red zone like seven times and only came away with like two two scores. Um they could have easily lost that game. And then the Packers like that was a a coin flip game. They’re six and one in one possession games. And the reason is is that their offense, I mean, almost on, unless they’re playing the Giants who can’t stop the run, their offense on a weekly basis almost like goes, they almost go like a whole half without scoring a point. You agree? Their offensive line is not I mean, it’s a shell of what it was last year. Lane Johnson’s in and out of the lineup with always getting banged up and interior guard, center guard is not as good. Way worse. Miss Beckton, Jurgens’s been out. They’re and Lane Johnson’s clearly just not 100% healthy. So yeah, their offensive line and that’s why if you look at Barkley’s numbers, um they’re they’ve fallen off a cliff as far as like yards before contact. Um and he just doesn’t have the same lanes that he did. And the this offense Yeah. I mean, this offense is is hard to trust right now. But you got to give credit to the Eagles for just finding ways to win games. I I said this yesterday, Sirani has kind of turned into what Tomlin would have been like 12, 13, 14. Like he can handle a lot of [ __ ] If this AJ Brown thing would break a lot of young coaches, like it’s pretty just, you know, how Philly is. It’s just a lot going on. He is 55 and 22. I get he’s got a lot of good players and a great general manager, but like I I listen, I’ve been a hater over the years. You’re 55 and 22. It’s like, and you won a Super Bowl, what are you going to say? Yeah, he I think he’s become he’s underrated in some of the in-game stuff that he does um with like the game management, clock management. Um, I think he’s very underrated in that in that aspect. But where I’m struggling with this game is you I mean you nailed it. How much So the Lions offense, which hasn’t been trending well, Dan Campbell goes to play caller and they did change some things and how they approached the game plan last week and how often they were throwing, but how much of that is okay Dan Campbell and the Lions offensive or was it the Washington defense who looked first of all, they were really bad. Second of all, like you have pain, your only good player like throws a punch and gets thrown out. Like just signs that they didn’t want to be there. So, how much do I like take I I don’t know what to take away from that game. How much was it Washington? How much was it Detroit? Tough to tell. I do think it’s going to be better, but by what magnitude? And then you have the Eagles defense, which for the full season wasn’t great. It was, you know, by some advanced metrics, it was like a league average group. you know, they weren’t bad, but they weren’t great, and they weren’t as good as last year. They just didn’t have the same edge rush. Their secondary wasn’t as good. Um, like after some of the losses that they had in the offseason, but this is a Fangio defense coming out of the buy. You add Jaylen Phillips who looked really good and provided much needed juice off the edge. But how much of that was Green Bay’s offensive being broken and their injuries? cuz I mean at the end they were throwing to like Bo Melton. There’s a reason they were trying to make him a corner. So like how much do I take away from that Eagles defense? Are they back to like being the elite unit? So I don’t know. I don’t have a strong feel on this game. There is some sharp money on the Eagles early in the week. Let me see what that line’s at right now. Uh I mean thing is Mitch the the Lions I I mean Aman Raw is their quote unquote one but he’s kind of a unique it’s not like he’s TD Lamb or Justin Jefferson. They move them all around where Mitchell, right, is like tailor made that you just put them on CD Lamb or, you know, CD Lamb lines up in the same places where the Lions kind of, you know, move their offensive weapons kind of all around, right? So, it’s it’s a little unique that they would rather just have Mitchell Garden, CD Lamb, or Justin Jefferson or whatever, but that’s not really the Lions deal. Yeah. Yeah. That it because he’s because he’s awesome. He’s he’s good. That’s a good pick. He’s he’s amazing. Um, let me see. The the Yeah, you do have golf outdoors. Like I could see the case where it’s just like the you trust the Eagles defense at home uh against golf outdoors, but it’s hard to trust that that Eagles offense right now. Let me see. The weather is I I do think their defense, like watching that Monday night game is like uh uh Jay Hunt, I mean, he looks like he’s got a chance to be a pretty good player. You add Phillips, obviously Jaylen Carter, they have multiple linebackers, right? Yeah, linebackers are really good. And you got Mitchell and Cooper, and then if you just kind of rotate the other guys, like most teams don’t have like seven good corners. I I I never feel that like much sympathy. It’s like, well, we’re missing a corner. It’s like, well, yeah, most teams are rolling out random corners. Like, welcome to the NFL. Yeah. I mean, look. Yeah. Hunt. I mean, Nolan Smith like I mean Dean. Yeah, he he’s back, too. I mean now you have like Campbell coming off like coming off the edge with Phillips. So they’re starting to get some more Vic. Yeah. Now they can’t like if they lose they the one position where they cannot lose anyone is they can’t lose Carter or or Davis like the the Dline their down defensive lineman still has like no depth. It’s like rookies behind them but the rest of the defense is starting to fill out. I’m interested to see they also signed Howie brought in Howie generally makes very smart move sharp moves outside of uh getting um Jier Alexander who’s stepped away. Did you do you get do you get a redo on that one or the Ravens still get their pick? Um but they did they did bring in Michael Carter who’s um the the quarterback Michael Carter. So like does that enable them over time to then play Deene and Williams on the outside and then play Carter in the nickel? That’s an interesting potential wrinkle because their their biggest weakness, one of their biggest weaknesses on defense besides edge rush which looks like to be improving on the upswing is their second corner position has been a real weakness and one that other teams have really attacked because additionally their safeties aren’t great. So that could be an added wrinkle. You also have to keep in mind like Jurgens is banged up. I mean all their offensive linemen like on the all their offensive linemen besides Miata are on the injury report. So how healthy is Lane Johnson? The numbers with and without Lane Johnson are are stunning. And they’ve also been going jumbo a lot which is helped the offense a bit but without Lane Johnson that’s much harder to do and you can’t do that as frequently. But like Steen Dickerson they’re also on the injury report. So there’s some things to watch here. Um, I just don’t have a great feel. I think we’ll But I mean, it’s just hard. Like, the Lions are probably going to score. They score on mostly everyone. And if the Eagles offense goes into a tank for half, like it’s eventually going to burn them. And if this Campbell bump is real, then I can see the Eagles getting upset. But I I just don’t have a strong feel. like I really want another data point where of this Eagles defense out of the buy after some of the additions and uh what this Lions offense looks with a new play caller. One game that’s tough because a little bit like uh you know playing the Washington Commanders, the Giants defense is pretty horrendous and Caleb made some awesome plays with his feet. They obviously had a bunch of drops, but you know it’s freezing cold. You’re going to drop the ball sometimes outdoors. But the Vikings, I mean, there was that one play, I think, was it the Humphrey pick? I think it was the Humphrey pick, not the Starks pick where where Jefferson just quit. He’s like, I’m I’m not even chasing him. And sometimes I’ll defend like it’s like I I look at the quarterback I have to play with right now. What are we doing? So, it’s I sometimes I will defend like obviously Antonio Brown. There’s a level of like, yeah, Terrell Owens, but like I I don’t mind Jefferson being like, “Hey guys, what the hell did you you just signed me up for?” because this is a joke. This is not a two- win team developing a quarterback here. We were tailor made ready to win. And this guy, he can have a good play and then he can just make a play like he’s the worst quarterback in the NFL. But the Bears have stretches where one, their defense is horrendous. And their defense is not Jackson Dart was destroying them. And if Brian Dball just didn’t hate Russell Wilson with the power of a thousand Suns and accepts a penalty and scores instead of kicking the field goal, uh I I would imagine they they they win that game and that probably led to Dayball getting fired. But I don’t have a feel for this thing. I I guess I would just lean the Bears, but again, you have to take the Bears record with a grain of salt with how they look throughout most of these games. They’re pulling games out of their ass with Caleb running around, but I have there’s no way, and I mean no way, I could put money on JJ McCarthy. Well, I did. Uh, you could have guessed that. I because you like Flores against Caleb. He’s I mean, McCarthy’s looked really bad. Uh, there’s no doubt about that. in his defense. I mean, my my defense is he gets to play the Bears defense. The Bears defense, which has been a B. Like, if you remove turnovers, I mean, this is a team they’re plus 14 on the season on turnover margin. Like, they have eight fumbles, they’ve only lost two. Their opponents have nine fumbles, they’ve recovered seven. They’ve also played the easiest strength of schedule in the league. I mean they their wins are the Cowboys, the Commanders by one because of fumbles. The Raiders by one because of Gino Turnovers. They were out game by like 300 yards in that game. The Bengals, the Saints, and the Giants. They needed miraculous comebacks against the Raiders, the Commanders, uh the Bengals, and the Giants. I mean, they lose that game if Dart doesn’t get hurt. And they that’s like you could argue those are the six worst defenses in the league. And like if you so if you remove turnovers the Bears are 30th in EPA per play on defense basically right with the Bengals and Cowboys. If you look at early downs so first and second down without turnovers which are more predictive than third downs more variance they’re dead last in EPI worse than the Bengals and the Cowboys. It’s like this defense can’t get pressure. They can’t stop the run. They the Kyler Gordon and Jaylen Johnson, two of their best players are on IR at the corner position. So, I think that even the Vikings and McCarthy can move the ball even if they want to run it. The Bears can’t cover the receivers. Hopefully McCarthy can get them the ball. And I will say in fairness, the Eagles the Vikings past five games have been against the Eagles, Ravens, Chargers, Lions, and Packers. A lot of good defenses in there, a lot of good teams. Meanwhile, the Bears have been playing nothing but clowns. They even got to play the Ravens with uh with Snoop Puntley who went up and down the field on them. So yeah, I mean the Bears have four crazy comebacks with an easiest schedule in the league. They could easily be a three and six team and Vikings I with their defense their defense is going to be the best unit on the field. Their run’s improved since they’ve gotten healthier with Van Ginkle and G and Cashman. And look, Caleb’s playing better this year and the run game’s been really good, but you got to remember, he’s played horrendous defenses all year. And you watch him, he’s still bailing from the pocket. He’s still not efficient. He’s making some really nice plays downfield and they’re explosive, but he’s bailing from the pocket almost immediately. Like you’ll see him just like 180 out and then running around. I don’t think that can work against a Flores defense. This is still a huge home field advantage for the Vikings and like a must-win. I I McCarthy’s hard to trust as a favorite, but this this Bears team and and Caleb hasn’t been good as good on the road. This Bears team is is is due to not have some bounces go their way. And I think even with McCarthy, this Vikings offense can move the ball uh pretty much at will against the Bears. Okonnell gets a little pass happy, you know? I mean, that’s he he likes he’s got a little Andy Reed McVey. He he he would rather pass it every single play than never run it. Yes. And I do I do think that is very difficult on a quarterback who was trained and I would say, you know, probably got a graduate level degree playing at Michigan for Harbaugh and Crew. He learned playing football the complete opposite. So this is a stark contrast of like, hey man, you got u Jerry Rice over here and you got uh you know Joey Galloway over here and we’re going bombs away. It’s like that’s not how this kid learned how to play. So, in fairness to JJ, they’re asking him to do something that and he’s barely played in the NFL. He’s coming off an injury. His the the the pre he’s playing good opponents. It’s it’s not going well. Once I saw Jefferson just like I was like, this is there’s a lot going on there. It was a bad It was bad last week, but it should be much easier. It’s not like the Ravens even played that great. Would you agree with that? Yeah. No. Uh I Lamar like their their defense still can’t stop the runs. Like the Vikings were able to run it. I think they averaged like six yards per carry. McCarthy just run and and McCarthy just missed a bunch of throws. It was it was not a good look. But I will say the the Raiden secondary has legit elite talent. The Bears have one of the worst in their 31st in EPA per drop back. It’s it’s a bad bad secondary and they don’t get pressure. So if there’s ever an opportunity for McCarthy to move the ball and his only like he had one his one good quarter did come against the Bears in his first game when they came back to win that game which I think just says more about the Bears defense. Um so yeah this is like this will be a much easier test for him. You got any uh upset alert on uh Oklahoma going into title town? Do you think that defense cuz Alabama can’t run the ball? Can’t run the ball. Their defense isn’t great. Like they you can run on them. Oklahoma’s found a bit of a rushing attack. Mobile quarterbacks can give Alabama problems. It’s an interesting spot in that Alabama’s revenge from last year. Like Oklahoma Yeah. beat the [ __ ] out of them, didn’t they? Dominated them. But this game is much more important for Oklahoma in that like Alabama’s probably going to the college playoff regardless. even if they lose this game, they’re still okay. Oklahoma needs this game. I mean, maybe Oklahoma still gets in with losses, but it gets dice here. Um, and they’re coming off of a buy. One of their best defensive players is questionable are Mason Thomas, but this defense is nasty. Bama can’t run it. One dimensed one-dimensional against Oklahoma is a tough tough task for for Tai Simpson who’s played really well. I will say like the Oklahoma defense is one of the top maybe two or three in the country, but they’ve been a little vulnerable against the teams that can throw it. Like we saw Miss move it. We saw Tennessee throw it. The rest of the teams they played, Texas, South Carolina, Kent State, Auburn, Temple, Michigan, Illinois State can’t really throw it. So, can Oklahoma get enough hits on Simpson and cause some mistakes here? That’ll probably be the difference. Alabama is also really, really good early on in games. Oklahoma can’t get too far behind here. Um, I would like a seven. I I think Oklahoma’s going to have a shot. Their special teams are also much better. They have a really good kicker. One of the best kickers in the country. Alabama special teams. Little the guy that wears no pants. Yeah. And he uh wears a slow arm sleeve. Uh they he’s a really really good kicker. That could get them some hidden points. Alabama struggled on special teams this year. The start is important. I would like a seven here. Be honest. The Lions come down off of seven, which I think does make sense, but I might look to back Oklahoma live if Bama goes up, which they often do. And I I anticipate Venables will have a good game plan. This is on defense. This will be a great chess match, especially coming off the buy, but I assume that so will uh Dbor and Gro offensively in the in the script and I’m sure they’ve been itching to uh get their get back on Oklahoma. So, yeah, really good game. It’s a really boring college slate other than this game and two similar games. Then you have Texas Georgia. Georgia can afford the loss. Texas really needs the win. Coming in with some momentum. Arch just had the best game of his career. They beat the crap I mean the final score is 34 to 31, but didn’t Vandy score like 24th quarter points? They I watched they they beat the crap out of Vandy in that game. Arch was awesome. Yeah, Arch has look much better, but the two teams he’s faced is like Vandy who look gass and then Mississippi State. So, how much of it is Arch improving? Now, I will say the Texas offensive line has been a lot to blame for some of their offensive struggles, but Georgia can’t get pressure. I mean, they’re their defense outside the top 100 in pressure rate, bottom 10 sack rate, so that should help Arch here. The Texas defense is really good. This was of 2024, I remember probably the most intense just sitting down for a game and buckling up for this matchup last year. But Mike Williams and obviously Javon Walker are gone. And Walker, what do you have like three and a half sacks in that regular season game? Well, they had Georgia had 13 sacks in two games against Texas. They swept Texas last year. Once in the regular season, once in the SC championship game. Georgia has 11 total sacks this year. That’s crazy. Total. They had 13 against Texas. And Texas had an elite offensive line. So, the pressure’s way down. So, it should be easier on Arch. Walker in those games looked like I don’t know, Lawrence Taylor. Yeah, he got was dominant. Um, so what what like is you have Arch coming off of a buy too. Um, so I Jaylen, I keep calling him Javon like the Raiders wers. Yes. Yes. Uh, so yeah, I mean I think Arch has looked better. He’s settled in, but he did get to play Vandy and Mississippi State. This is a team that still couldn’t move the ball at all at Kentucky. Should have lost that game. Um, and then you got to remember Mississippi State, they were down 17 in the fourth quarter before he turned it on. And then Georgia just went into Mississippi State and dominated them. Would like to get a seven here. I will say though, Georgia’s games all go the same way. Like they go down in the first quarter of every game. All SEC games except Kentucky. They’ve been down. They’ve been outscored in the first quarter, I think, by 20 on the season uh in their SEC games. So, they they come out flat. Their defense is just not it’s not a national title contend caliber defense. I like they would still win it offshore, but it’s going to have to be on the backs of their offense. The defense is just nowhere close to like your older brothers Georgia elite defenses, but they go down almost every game. And then Kirby has like carried them to like Georgia and Alabama are very similar to me. Their defenses are down a bit for different reasons. Their offenses, Georgia can at least run it. Alabama can’t, but they’ve won a number of games they easily could have lost. Um, and a lot of that goes back to coaching. There were two very well coached teams, but Kirby in particular is the best in-game adjuster in college football. So, if you see Georgia down early, usually a good live bet. I mean, they’ve been incredible in the fourth quarters, in the second half. You saw them shut out Alabama. Uh, so yeah, I would lean taking the points looking for Georgia live, but would like to get a seven there again. And, uh, last one I’ll mention, I did fade my Ravens. Browns, Browns at home. Brown’s home defense with weather. Like, I don’t know who’s scoring in this game. Lamar, I don’t think is 100. He doesn’t have the same burst. So, you take away his legs and mobility against that defensive line. You also can’t run it on Cleveland. And if there’s a ton of wind, that only hurts the Ravens. The Browns can’t throw it downfield. You can run a little bit on the Ravens. The Browns have been incredible at home. Crazy stat. I’ll finish with last three years. Browns Browns at home 13-8 against the spread, 62% on the road, 5-7 against the spread, 22%. That’s worse than league. Worse than the Titans who never cover. They’ve been they’ve caught a touchdown or more at home three times over the past three years. Not only have they covered all three, they won all three outright. They beat the Ravens last year. The 49ers, remember that game last year? And the Packers earlier this year, they shut down everyone at home. No, I mean, I don’t think the Are the Ravens going to get more than 17 with a not 100% Lamar? I don’t think so. Can the Browns get the 10? Sure. Uh, so I did I bet the Browns plus uh plus the points there getting over a touchdown and and what should the total’s down to like 39. Dylan Gabriel might not be good though. He’s terrible. Back I I’m backing Gabriel and McCarthy. What could go wrong? Uh it this could have to be in the back. Like this has to be a Browns. Yeah. 1713 1310 type of game. Uh because 1513 something weird. Yeah. Gabriel is they’re going to have to do it how they they should have beat Burrow. They did beat Love and the Packers and they held the Dolphins at three points. But yeah, they’re you’re going to have they’re just going to have to run it. Rely on their D. The weather should help a ton though. Okay, Stucky, thank you and um enjoy the weekend. I’m sure you got a lot going on. College basketball, college football, NFL. Good time of year. So, uh I will talk to you. I’ll talk to you in a week. Absolutely. Have it going, brother.

John Middlekauff is joined by ⁨@TheActionNetwork⁩’s Stuckey to discuss the best bets for Week 11 in the NFL and Week 12 in college football. John and Stuckey kick off by recapping a tough NFL Week 10 weekend. Then they dive into the NFL games: Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals, Sam Darnold and the Seattle Seahawks vs. Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs vs. Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions vs. Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday Night Football, and Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears vs. J.J. McCarthy and the Minnesota Vikings. John and Stuckey then dive into the two biggest college football games in Week 12: Oklahoma at Alabama and Texas at Georgia. Finally, they wrap up with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens vs. the Cleveland Browns, with Stuckey explaining why he will be fading the Ravens on the road this week.

00:00 // Start
00:19 // ZONE Pouches
00:56 // 3FTM
04:08 // Week 10 Recap
12:43 // Hard Rock Bet
13:34 // Buccaneers-Bills
20:26 // GameTime
21:29 // 49ers-Cardinals
26:19 // Seahawks-Rams
33:08 // Chiefs-Broncos
35:59 // Chargers-Jaguars
37:40 // Chiefs-Broncos
40:07 // Lions-Eagles
50:14 // Bears-Vikings
56:57 // Oklahoma-Alabama
59:30 // Texas-Georgia
02:51 // Ravens-Browns

All lines provided by @hardrockbet

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