Will the Maple Leafs Get It Together?

Will the Maple Leafs Get It Together?

Welcome back. All right, so 18 games into the season, I figure this is a good time to take a look at the Toronto Maple Leafs. We’re about a quarter of the way through the regular season and they’re 88 and two, which is not the kind of record they normally have 18 games into the season. Last year they were 106 and two after 18 games. The previous year 10 5-3, the previous year 95 and 4, and the previous year 125-1. Uh a mediocre October, it happens. But usually in November, they get things rolling. They go on a hot streak and they get above and stay above the playoff line the rest of the year. Now, looking at the numbers from last year and this year, and and this is this year’s numbers. This is last year’s numbers in black. Uh this year, you can see Knander’s off to a fantastic start. 15 games, eight goals, 17 assists, 25 points. Last season, uh at this point, he played 18 games, 12 goals, eight assists, 20 points. So, Knander five points ahead of last year. He’s played three less games than last year. He’s playing pretty well. Tvarez is having a better time of it this year than last year. 18 games, 11 goals, 12 assists, 23 points. Last year at this time, he had 17 games played, nine goals, seven assists, 16 points. So much better start for Tvaris this year than last year. Matthew Ny, much better numbers than last year as well. 18 games, five goals, 17 assists, 22 points this season. Last year, 18 games, seven goals, four assists, 11 points. So he has doubled his point total because Mner’s gone. Mner last year at this time 18 games, five goals, 17 assists, 22 points. The exact same numbers Matthew Ny has produced. So this is where it gets interesting because Marner leaving and I wondered throughout the summer like who’s going to replace him. Nise clearly is playing the exact same role or at the very least he’s got the exact same stats. But then it becomes okay so if NY has taken that place so who’s moved up into that place that NY occupied last year at this time and I do feel like the depth which has always been a conversation with the Toronto Maple Leafs is in focus this year too. Now, Matthews this year, 17 games, nine goals, five assists, 14 points. At this time last year, 13 games, five goals, six assists, 11 points. So, underwhelming starts last year and this year both. Um, in terms of overall points, the goal scoring this year has been fine, but of course, now he’s injured. He’s going to be out for a bit here. Um, and there’s always that secrecy around any injuries that Matthews might be dealing with. But to me, Austin Matthews is not the problem. He’s a good two-way forward. Uh if you look at the goalcoring five on five, they score more with him on the ice than they allow. Um same can be said of Knander. Same can be said of Tavvarz. It’s when you get into that bottom six that things start to kind of go the other way. Uh Riley this year, 17 games, two goals, 12 assists, 14 points. Last year at this time, uh he had played 18 games, four goals, nine assists, 13 points. So Riley is very close to the totals he had last year. Really, really quite similar. Ecman Larson’s doing better. 18 games, two goals, 10 assists, 12 points. This year last year, 18 games, one goal, five assists, six points. So he’s doubled his goals and his assists so far this season. Then you got Robertson. 17 games, four goals, six assists, 10 points. He was not in the top 11 scorers last year at this time. It could be argued then that Robertson is kind of doing what N was last year at this time and so he’s kind of jumped up into that role which is good because I still think Nick Robertson can be a productive forward in the NHL. I’m glad he’s getting a chance to show that this year. McCabe’s numbers have gone up 18 games, two goals, seven assists, nine points. Last year at this time five assists in 18 games. Uh Machelli of course added from Utah 17 games, four goals, four assists, eight points. Machelli’s been up and down the lineup and the question of whether or not it’s been a successful transition to Toronto is definitely one that I can pose to you guys. I would say the numbers have been a little bit underwhelming considering the opportunity that he had when he came here, but he’s maybe still learning the systems in Toronto. There’s still that chance that his numbers get better as the year goes along. McMahon this year, 18 games, five goals, three assists, uh, eight points. Last year, 17 games, four goals, one assists, five points. So McMahon, one extra goal, three extra points. I’ll go ahead and say it’s very similar. Doi this year, 18 games, three goals, three assists, six points. Last year, 18 games and just the six assists. Max Doi is always prominent. You never get as many points out of Max Doi as you think you’re going to. Uh, part of the reason I think that Max Doi has bounced around the league as much as he has is that there is that production that is there, but it’s never quite enough that a team necessarily keeps him around for as long as it looks like Toronto’s going to be keeping him around. Uh, understandable though with the name DOI being as famous as it is in Toronto and everything. It’s just I don’t think with Max Doi we’re ever going to get like fantastic offensive numbers. The goalending has not been at the same level as last year. Stolars last year 63 and2 for a 930 safe percentage. This year 65 and1 884 safe percentage. So huge difference in the safe percentage for Stallars. Wool has not debuted yet this year. Last year at this time he’d played uh enough to have a 3-2 record with a 902 safe percentage. This year they they brought in Primo via the waiver wire before waving him and sending him out. Primo went two and one. So, the record was fine, but that safe percentage 838. Uh, Hillbe shows up on both of last season and this season. Last season, he was 1-1 with an 869 safe percentage. This year so far, 02-1 with a 904 safe percentage. So, the overall numbers amongst the goalenders have dropped off from where they were last year. Although Hilde’s numbers are better, but Toronto’s performance not as much. So, they are scoring goals this year, 3.61 61 goals per game. Last year at this time, an even three. Goals against, on the other hand, last year it was 2.61 goals against per game. Toronto’s defense and goalending have been good for years. It’s just it’s not talked about as much because there’s an assumption that their defense probably isn’t very good. Um whether that’s that they they don’t have like a huge big star on the blue line or whatever it is, that’s the reputation. But this year, uh 3.83 goals against per game just doesn’t get it done. The weird thing is the power plays actually dropped this year from where it was last year. Last year was 20.3% at this point in the year, 17% this year. So, it has dropped off. It was ice cold of course. It seems like it’s started picking up its game recently. Uh their penalty kill has dropped off a little bit predictable with the goals against going up going up as much as it has. 84.9% last year at this time and this year 78.2%. Their upcoming schedule is not easy. The tonight they’re at Chicago. Chicago is a team with no pressure. Chicago is a team that’s playing for fun. Can be tough when you’re feeling that pressure going up against a team that’s not. Uh then they come home for two. Uh Tuesday they’re at home against St. Louis. Thursday they’re at home against Columbus. Winnable games, right? Their road record has been poor. Uh their home record’s been much better. So two games at home against teams that are below the playoff line currently should help them. But then the road trip, the road trip, I think is going to define the season. I think if this six-game road trip goes poorly for them, things could change very quickly uh in terms of what the team’s plans are going forward, etc., etc. So, next Saturday, uh they’re at Montreal. Then on Wednesday, they’re at Columbus, so that’s the 26th. Then on the Friday, the 28th, they’re at Washington. Keep in mind that that spans across uh America and Thanksgiving. So that week, the Wednesday and the Friday have 15 games each. Then on the Saturday, so the next day, they’re playing in Pittsburgh. So they play in Washington, they play in Pittsburgh. That’s not going to be an easy backto-back there. Uh then on Tuesday they’re at Florida and that’s December 2nd and December 4th to Thursday they’re at Carolina. So Montreal, Columbus, Washington, Pittsburgh, Florida, Carolina. There are a lot of long road trips for teams this year and a six-game road trip is it can be a lot. And that six-game road trip could tell us exactly what the Leafs are. they need to bring their goals against down. Um, considering some of their opponents and the firepower they have in these games coming up. That’s going to be a challenge. Um, I also wanted to cover their salary structure a bit because it gets talked about a lot, but I I don’t think there’s a problem here. Matthews 13.25 million until 2028. The there is an issue with Matthews in terms of his production justifying that cap hit. I would say over the last couple years, you could have that discussion. Although the overall numbers, the fi the the way he plays at five on five, the way he plays defensively, I think kind of balances it out. Knander 11 12 million till 2032. I don’t think there’s anybody who has a problem with Neander’s cap hit at this point in time. He’s uh he’s on pace for a lot of points this year. Uh NY 7.75 million till 2031. Perfectly fine. Tvarz 4.39 million till 2029. Huge bargain at this point in time when it comes to Tvarez. Uh, then you got Riley on the blue line, 7.5 million till 2030. So, every time I see somebody talking about how much he sucks, how terrible he is, blah blah blah. And in regards to Riley, I think, okay, so other GMs would see that, too. So, why would they call? Why would anybody make a trade for him if he’s as bad as fans say he is, then GMs would get the call from Toronto and go, we’re not really all that interested. Uh, McCabe 4.51 million till 2030 is his cap hit. Tanf, four and a half million till 2030. Now, Tanv currently out with an injury. We don’t know how long he’s going to be out, but it’s definitely not going to help that goal against in all likelihood, right? Uh Wool 3.67 goals or 3.67 goals against average. Sure, that’s it. 3.67 million cap hit till 2028. Stlars 3.75 million cap hit till 2030. So they’ve got their goalenders both signed through 2028 and Stlars who is the starter till 2030. The numbers they’ve had so far have not been great with their goalenders but once Wall is back and we have that regular rotation between the two. We’ll see if Stallars’s numbers get better as well. Right now one thing I wanted to talk about too is age on the blue line. We’re looking at an age right now in the NHL. age being used two different ways here, but we’re we’re in an age right now in the NHL where young defenseman are coming in and they’re they’re really turning the game on its ear. And the Leafs don’t really have that. And when we look at the Leafs blue line, even guys that you might think are young may not be as young as you might think. Uh Riley’s 31, McCabe’s 32. So that’s another knock on Riley for people who are like, I don’t know why they don’t just trade Riley. Okay, he’s 31. If he’s as bad as everybody says he is and this cap hit runs till 2030, which GM’s going to pick him up and what are they going to give up for him? Um, McCabe 32, Tanv 35. So again, we don’t know his status, how long he’s going to be out, but he is 35 years of age, so it’s probably going to take him a little longer to come back from injury than it used to. Uh, Ecman Larson, 34, Carlos, 28. Uh, and he played a lot of hard minutes in Boston. Uh, Benois 27, Meyers is 28. They just added Troy Stcher on waiverss. I put him on the board. He’s 31. I like Stcher. He’s a good depth defenseman. I think he’s a good good foot soldier for a team, but he’s he’s not going to turn the needle. He’s not going to, you know, all of a sudden make this defense all better. Mermis is 31 and Rafi is 27. I was surprised Rafi was 27. That’s why I said what I said at the start. I thought he was younger than that. And so, what you see is what you get with this defense. What you see is what you get. And in terms of young defensemen that might be on their way up, um, I wanted to look at their first round draft picks in recent years. This is a team that’s been trading firsts a lot. And one thing that I always say when it comes to trading out first round picks is that if if it’s a top team and it’s a team that has a really good chance of winning the Stanley Cup, I get it. There have been years where Toronto’s traded that pick and then people have said to me, “Well, it doesn’t matter that they traded those picks because those picks are like 15th, 20th, 25th. These are not picks that the Leafs are going to regret trading.” The problem is, okay, maybe pick number 20, pick number 25 isn’t going to be a big star, but there’s still that chance it’s going to be a pretty good player, and you’re trading that player out for that rental, for that player at the deadline that you think gets you over the hump. And then when he doesn’t, then that ends up looking like a mistake. So this past year, 2025, no first round pick for Toronto. And I I didn’t I didn’t do the mean thing and put who got drafted in the spot that Toronto would have drafted in. I didn’t do that. Um last year in 2024, they draft 31st. They get Ben Danford, defenseman, who is currently doing all right in the OHL. Um Eastston Cowan was the 28th pick in 2023. I do think at times there are people in media, people in the fandom who might overrate Eastston Cowan a little bit. Uh Eastston Cowan is likely going to be a good top six forward. I don’t know if he’s going to be a top line forward. And if you read through scouting reports, and I have read up a lot on Eastn Cowan over the last 12 months really, it’s a it’s it’s there are people who think he can be an excellent player and a really good puck puck producing point producing puck moving player and there are some who think he’s going to be a very good complimentary player and he’ll have some good seasons here and there, but what his ceiling is, there’s still that debate. 2022, they did not have a first round pick. They didn’t have one in 2021 either, although I had to put on the board. They did draft Matthew Ny 57th overall. That was an astute pick on their part. 2020, they drafted 15th, uh, Rodian Amiro being the draft pick there. And of course, Amiro tragically passed. So, that’s a first round draft pick that they do not currently have in the organization. 2019, they didn’t have a first round pick that either that year either. Uh, 2018, they drafted 29th, they drafted Rasmus Sandine. Well, he is gone. He’s in Washington now. Uh 2017 they drafted 17th overall. They got Timothy Ljigrin who is of course now in San Jose and going by Lil Jigrin instead of Lilligrin. Uh and of course 2016 they drafted Austin Matthews first overall. They tanked that year to get that number one draft pick. They got that number one draft pick and since then it really has been Austin Matthews team and it really has been we’ve got this core group that we’ve built around but the depth has always been a question. Um, I would say right now I would say that speed has kind of become a question with this team. Uh, as I mentioned with the defense, there’s not really that youthful, energetic player there yet. Maybe Danford’s the guy. Maybe Danford comes in next year, but it’s not going to be this season. So, I think there is a valid question to be asked when it comes to Toronto and that speed, that youth, because they have not had the draft picks. they’ve been willing to trade draft picks, trade multiple draft picks and it it hasn’t panned out. So, I think that’s eroded the depth in the organization and I do think they missner. I do think that’s part of it. One thing with Mitch Mner, you know, watching Mner protecting the net during uh the the Vegas game the other night, blocking an empty net goal, and I was thinking, you know, the effort defensively that Mner makes is directly related to how long Toronto cultivated that with Mner. They worked really hard with Marner to make him a good two-way forward and to make it so he could play on the point on the power play and play it like a defenseman and now Vegas is reaping those rewards and Toronto doesn’t have a player who I feel like has that skill level. I get that people didn’t like Marner’s playoff appearances and they didn’t like his effort or whatever it was about his playoffs. the production wasn’t there, but you still have to replace him during the regular season where he was very productive, where he had over 100 points. And so, while N is trending in that direction and could very well get there, then you still need somebody else to replace what N was doing further down the lineup. So, it’s still a bit of an erosion in their depth. I I still think there’s the chance, of course, that Toronto’s turn Toronto turns this around. Nobody’s running away with the East right now. Um, but they’re going to have to turn around quickly. And this six-g game road trip, I really think is going to tell us. It’s going to tell us a lot. The fact that seven of their next nine, including tonight’s game against Chicago, are on the road, I think this is going to be a really good litmus test for what Toronto can do. They have to bring the goals against down. Even if that means means bringing down their goals for as well. Maybe they need to play just a little bit differently. Um, I’ve started to see some grumbling online from fans about Craig Barubi and the system that he’s employing with them. I think that he’s trying his best. Uh, clearly the numbers are not getting better other than the goals for which are through the roof, but goals against are too high. Power plays dropped off. The penalty kills dropped off. There are definitely a lot of warning signs here that Toronto’s best days might be behind him, which would be too bad because this is a team that got out of the first round twice, wasn’t able to get out of the second round. And yeah, if they miss the playoffs this year, um I don’t know what you do. I don’t know what you do if this team misses the playoffs. And I’ve heard that the well, they could trade Matthews, they could trade knander, they could, but you’re basically sending the team straight into a rebuild. And I have seen articles asking, do the Leafs need a rebuild? No. But I I do look back and think, you know, if they’d kept some of those first round picks if they’d just kept some more of those younger players, who knows? Like Sandine has been good in Washington. Ligrin’s been good in San Jose. I’m not saying that they change everything or the Toronto Maple Leafs record be a lot better, but I I do think they’ve been a little too quick to abandon young players and draft picks. I do think if there’s a criticism I’d have of the Leafs, that would be it because clearly they weren’t as close to a Stanley Cup uh as they thought they were when they made those trades. So, at any rate, uh let me know your thoughts in the comment section below. What would you do to fix the team? Um no, don’t say move it. Don’t say fold it. Come on now, be nice. And I I honestly um I look at this situation and think, you know, if if Toronto misses the playoffs this year, it just it takes something out of the playoffs. It just does. I I like it when original six teams are in the playoffs. I would love to see Toronto, Montreal, and Boston all in the playoffs at the same time in the Atlantic. That could lead to some crazy playoff matchups. But at this point in time, oddly enough, the one of the three that looks most dodgy in terms of making the playoffs is Toronto. So, I don’t think that necessarily continues. I do think there are some teams that might be overachieving a little bit early in the season, but I’d be interested to know your thoughts. Let me know your thoughts in the comments section below. As always, hit like and subscribe in the event you may not have done so already. Uh, but thank you guys so much for all your support. It’s greatly appreciated. I will talk to you again soon.

Toronto is off to their worst start in a long while. Normally they get on a roll in November, but that has not yet materialized.

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