Jim Bowden on the Offseason Market for Tarik Skubal, Kyle Tucker & High-End Closers

Jim Bowden on the Offseason Market for Tarik Skubal, Kyle Tucker & High-End Closers

Let’s talk about Skins and Scooble for a moment. Do the Tigers have a chance in heck, Jim, of signing Scooble to a longterm deal. Alana, that’s a Chris Illich question, right? It’s not a Scott Harris question. It’s not a Seth Greenberg question. It’s Chris Illich. Look, I think we pretty much know where this thing has to land, right? Uh Yashova Yamamoto makes 325 million. And we’re talking about Scooble who’s won back-to-back Sai Young awards and he’s 28 years old and he’s got the competitiveness, the makeup, he’s a great teammate. He’s the full package. He and Paul SK are the two best pitchers in the sport, period. So, you know, how badly does Chris Ilich want him? I mean, I think, you know, the next offer they need to make has to start at 350 million. Uh, you have to come out right away and show Scott Boris that you’re going to respect him and you’re going to make him the highest paid pitcher in Major League history. That’s where the offer starts. Then you have to see where Scott goes with that. Does he counter at 500? Does he counter at 450? You know, if you can get him done between 350 and 400, I think Scott Harris is going to tell Chris Illich, “Let’s do it.” It’s hard to get an ace. Um, he’s got everything we want in a superstar player. And then it’s up to Chris. And if Chris sits there and tells Scott Harris, I’m not paying 400 million for a singular player. I just don’t think it makes sense. I’m not going to approve doing that. Then Scott Harris to me has no choice, Alana, but to trade the player because I’m not gonna wait for the trade deadline and get two months rental return on him. And I’m certainly not going to do what the Angels did with Otani and let him get the free agency and get draft pick compensation. No. So, look, this is really a Chris Ilich question more than anything else. I do think Scooble would stay there if he was made that type of offer and I think it’s going to be fascinating to see how it plays out. Jim, the Tigers when Mike Ilich was alive were not afraid to go out and spend the money. Why? Why is the Sun not acting the same? Why is Chris Ilich not doing the same? Is it because he doesn’t love baseball as much? Is it because I know he was in Seattle for game five? He flew out there. He was on the field. So, does he not love baseball the way does he not desire a championship the way his dad did? Because to me, that was one of the great things about Detroit is once Mike Ilich said, “Hey, we’re turning it on.” I mean, they went fielder. They signed Miggy. Now, the Miggy deal at the end was bad, but they made some moves to to get guys there and to try to be a competitive team. They’re competitive. They’re on the brink of being able to possibly win a series that they haven’t done in in in 40 plus years. Why is he not doing what his dad did? Yeah, that’s a great question. I guess we should ask the same thing about how Steinbrunner. How come he doesn’t act like George does, right? Well, he does though. He does it he does it more though. He’s closer to his dad than than George than the Illich are. He’ll still go spend. I mean, he he’ll spend the money. He will, but he’s more reserved than his dad. His dad would go get Tucker and Bashette right now. Like, come on. That’s what Jordan and they probably they’d probably be the favorites for the World Series, Jim. Yep. You’re absolutely right. And so, the answer to your question is a lot of times the Suns want to be more responsible than their dads because their dads didn’t look at it from a business perspective. Their dads looked at I want to win. This was a hobby for them. They loved it. I mean, you know, George made his money in the ship building and Mike made his with with Little Caesar’s pizza and the other things that he was involved in and the sons come along, the next generation who inherited a lot of the resources and they tend to, you know, not be their dads and they’re going to be more responsible. I think Scooble is that exception though. And I look, if you can afford Miguel Cabrera in his prime like they did, then you certainly can afford Scooble in the prime. I mean, you look at their roster, AJ, Eric, and Alana for a minute. There’s a lot of payroll flexibility there. They’re not loaded with stars. Sure, Riley Green is going to make a lot of money at some point, but look, your next best player is going to be Kevin McGonagal, who’s going to be rookie of the year in 2026, and you’re not going to have to pay him for three years. So, to to pay Scooble 40 million a year for 10 years, the budget has to scream, “I can afford it.” So, you know, we’re going to find out. I I think we’re going to find out without a doubt. Uh but Chris, as you pointed out, yep. Not his dad. He operates differently. And so I think this is going to be the biggest decision that Chris Ilich has made since he took over as the control person, the Detroit Tigers. And I’m fascinated to see how this plays out because if he’s not willing to do it, then again, we’re going to see the biggest trade we’ve seen in a long time this winter. That’s what I want to get to. What’s a comparable return? Because you people are like, “Oh, well, Juan Sto got this and all this stuff.” We’re talking about guy who single-handedly took his team to the playoffs and made his team go as far as they could in the playoffs because if he could hit, he probably would have helped a little bit more, too, because they didn’t get any runs. He did everything possible. Yeah, a great great point, Eric. And I I think when you look at it, there’s not a lot of teams that are going to match. and anyone that’s going to give up a load to get them are going to want to be able to sign them long term and are going to be willing to say, “Hey, I’ll pay the $400 million bill when it comes.” Um, and so, you know, I I kind of identify five teams where I think there’s a possible fit. Let me go through them quickly for you since you asked. Um, the Dodgers. The Dodgers could offer EMTT Shehan, Justin Robleski, Jackson Ferris, Zire Hope. Pretty good package. You get three young starters you control. inexpensive. You get a future all-star outfielder. That’s a pretty strong package. Now, you want to get more creative. What about Tyler Glass now as part of the return? He doesn’t have a no trade clause. That would give the Tigers at least a top of the rotation type starter back. Have him be part of the package. Or you can look at the Red Sox, right? Uh they could do a package of early uh for the rotation, Christian Campbell for the infield, Garcia for the outfield. You could run a package around that. The New York Mets could offer a package led by Brandon Sprro and Jonah Tong, two starters back, throw in their Jet Williams and maybe Ronald Mauricio. That might work. Seattle may want to offer one of their young starters, say a Bryce Miller, and then maybe their best pitching prospect in Sloan. Um, throw in their Ford, one of their top prospects, Ad Morales. That might work. The Yankees with Spencer Jones and Will Warren could start a package, but that’s the type of return that you’re going to get. You’re not going to get a superstar back. You’re not going to get equal value back, but you might get enough quantity where you can compete in the future if you’re not going to spend the money on Scooble. The best move the Tigers can make though, it’s really simple. It’s to sign them long term and try to get it done. But if you can’t, don’t get stuck with draft pick compensation like the Angels did because that will set you back years. You you said not many match up. But I mean, we’re not talking you don’t have to sign this. you don’t have to sign him to extension and if you trade here like you’re giving up a lot. I get that. But you’re getting a guy, like I said, what he can do, but you’re also getting the draft pick compensation at the end of the season if he gets traded now. So, why do other teams not match up? Because they don’t have enough or they don’t have enough big league ready where they’re like, “Okay, well, we get this guy and we can still make the Tigers can still make it to the playoffs.” Yeah. A lot of teams don’t have the young starter that you definitely have to have back if you’re going to trade school. They a lot of teams don’t have those guys that are on the doorstep to get to the big leagues. So, you know, when I when I looked at it, and I’m writing an article on this on the athletic that’ll be published later this week. You know, I looked at all 29 teams and kind of put together if I’m the Tigers, what would make sense and where the fits would be and where they wouldn’t be. Um, and I I just found those were the teams that matched up. You know, I I have to start with I need young pitching back or I have to have a rotation guy ready back along with a very strong package. And those were the five teams that I felt matched up best with Detroit. That doesn’t mean other teams can’t match up and can’t make, you know, competitive offers. I just kind of took it from the Tigers perspective. All right. Well, Terble has uh some to say in it, but obviously still under control. Also, we’ll have to see what happens with him in terms of the Tigers, uh, whether they trade him or not. A guy that has a lot of say, Jim, and you wrote about it and talked about it, is Kyle Tucker. I would be very hardressed to say he goes back to the Cubs. What do you think is the market for Kyle Tucker? And who realistically is a good fit for him? You know, you know, I found this kind of fascinating talking to so many different front office executives about what is the value of Tucker, what do you think he’s going to get? You know, I had some guys say between 400 and 500. I had some guys say between 300 and 350. I had some guys say high AAV but shorter term to let him go back on the market. Um, it it’s interesting because it’s it’s a widespread and I don’t know what Kyle, you know, what what he’s going to prioritize. Is it going to be the most years and the most money? Um, or is he going to be flexible and taking high AAV and going back in the market in in, you know, four or five years or having a bunch of optout clauses? You know, I I don’t know how he’s going to play this out. I think it’s going to be very interesting. Uh but in terms of teams where he fits, I mean, he fits with the Blue Jays. Put him in right field. You know, he fits exactly what they like. 30 homers, 30 steals, plus defense, plus runner, plus arm. Uh it doesn’t have to be the face of the franchise. That’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Um I think it’s a really good fit and I hear that they’re really interested in him. I think he fits with the Yankees. If I’m Brian Cman, I want everything to do with him. I want him over Bellinger. I want him over Gisham. I want to have him and Judge together in that lineup. And again, doesn’t have to be the face of the franchise because Aaron Judge does that. If I’m the Dodgers, I can’t watch Tio in right field anymore. It it makes me sick every time the ball’s hit out there. I love his power and I love the personality, but can we just go hide him in left field and let’s put Tucker in right field with Pahess in center? I feel a lot better. The Dodgers, they got 80 million coming off the books. Why can’t I invest in Kyle Tucker? Complete player, quiet, will fit in nicely. doesn’t have to be the face of the fan franchise because Otani and Betts and Freeman are that. You know, other teams, does he fit? Yeah, Mets in right field, but Sodto DH, I’d feel better about my team defensively. That’s not going to happen. The Phillies would be a great fit in right field instead of Costanos, but Dave Dumbrosski’s focusing on Schwarber and Ranger Suarez first, but I like the fit in Philly. And I love the the the fit in San Francisco, but Buster Posey goes, “No, no, no. I’m spending all my money on pitching, pitching, and pitching. I’m not getting another bat.” So, that’s what he’s going to do. So, uh, I think at the end of the day, Blue Jays, Yankees, Dodgers are the best fits. And I think if you had to pick a favorite right now, it’s probably Toronto. AJ, we’re going to do things a little bit differently here. I am wearing the perfect jean. And I remember seeing ads for the perfect jean. Like, most comfortable fit ever, perfect fit on your body. And I was like, I’m not buying it now. I’m buying it. And we’re showing it off on FT. Please get off my desk, first of all, Scott. Second of all, I was with you. I was skeptical about perfect jean. And then I got a pair and the fitting was perfect. And my body is not hard to fit cuz I got a big old rear and big old legs from years of squatting and they fit perfectly. They’re stretchy. They’re comfortable. They’re fashionable. They’re everything I look for in a jean. And now I have an extra pair and I’m going to wear them all the time. Foul 15 is the code at the perfect gene. CFT listeners get 15% off your first order, plus free shipping, free returns, and free exchanges when you use code FO15 at checkout. That’s 15% off for new customers at the perfect gene.nyc with promo code foul 15. After your purchase, they’ll ask you where you heard about them. Please support the show and tell them foul territory sent you. Can you walk us through the closer market because it’s deep. There’s a lot on the free agency market. Are do you see one do you see any of the teams that are in for a closer currently have a closer and say you know what we can double down or is it a case where it’s like hey because this team X has this closer already they’re they’re not going to be in on this high end when I say high-end Robert Suarez Devin Williams and Edwin Diaz and then obviously you know you have Pete Fairbanks and you have that next level down. Yeah. No, I think if you already have a closure, you go get another one, right? I mean, that’s that’s what I want. I want as many as I can to shorten up that game. You know, if I’m the Padres’s last year, I loved having Mason Miller and Suarez late late in the games. I felt really good about my chances if I had a lead late. You know, if you’re the New York Yankees, I know David Bedar was great for them. Let’s go add Edwin Diaz to that. You know, he could pitch in New York. You know, he can handle it. I absolutely want that to to close if I’m the Yankees. Um, if I’m the Dodgers and I’m Dave Roberts, I’m so sick and tired of of having to mix and match. And look, Sasaki, they want him to start. So, if he’s gonna start, who’s going to close? It’s not going to be Blake Trinan. Uh, I know they went through a lot of injuries and they tried Tanner Scott. Sorry, it didn’t work. It should have, it didn’t. I get it. But, if I’m them, I want Diaz or Suarez or Devin Williams or Fairbanks or a Glacius. Um, so I think both of those teams, the Cubs and Twins have both told me their priority this entire off seasonason is to rebuild their bullpens because they don’t have anybody. Palasios is the only one back with the Cubs. The Twins traded their entire bullpen at the deadline. So, they’re going to be playing. The Tigers are going to be playing. The Braves have to play after losing at Glacius. Mike Elias says the Orioles are going to play. Mike Hayesen says they’re going to play. The Giants are going to play. The Rangers are going to play. And the Reds are going to play. They’re all after the and there’s not enough to go around. By the way, I think the closers market I think they’re going to get paid. I’m not saying I’m not saying they’re going to get the Josh hater deal, but I think Diaz wants it. I think he wants that fifth year and I think he wants to beat Hater. And I don’t know, maybe someone’s going to pay it. I don’t know. And I was guessing more like four years 88 million for Diaz and 480 for Suarez. But you know what? I I always try to overshoot and I end up undershooting. I thought Naylor would get 90 million. He’s gonna get close to a hundred million. So, you know, you know how these things work. But yeah, it’s a fun closers market for sure. Closers. One team that doesn’t need a closer with is the Boston Red Sox with what a Raldis Chapman did. What do you see them doing? Are they going to get Bregman back? Are they going to go for another starter? Are they going to find a bat? Is Pete Alonzo maybe in the mix for Boston? What do you see Boston doing? Because they were close, but they still have some big holes. Yeah. So, I I can only tell you exactly what Craig Brezlo says. uh number one goal is to get a number two starter and the second goal is to get a right-handed hitting corner infielder and then add some bullpen depth. So, you know that that’s what he’s telling other GMs. So, 100% believe that that’s what they’re going to do. Now, what does that mean? I think could they play for Scooble? Sure, they’ve got enough to get it done. Could they play for Freddy Peralta if he’s traded? Sure. Again, they have enough to get that done. or do you just go to free agency and try to get Dylan CE or Fran Valdez or one of those top end starters? They certainly have the uh income and the revenue and the payroll flexibility to do that. And then in terms of the corner infielder, you know, I if I were them, and this is not coming from them, this is just me. I would want Bo Bashette to play third base. That’s my that’s my first goal. I I love the bat. I love the hitter. I like the kid. I like him at third base. Um or second base. you could put him at second and Marcelo Meyer at third base with Story at shortstop. Um, and in terms of first base, you know, I think Pete Alonzo would be phenomenal there. Um, I know he doesn’t fit what they want because they want to improve defense, run prevention, very important to Craig Brezlo. Um, but imagine Alonzo because he plays every day, 162 games each of the last two years, 152 games or more, five years in a row, averages 35 home runs a year, great clubhouse guy, can handle the big market. Can you imagine how many dents he’d put in the Green Monster? They’d probably have to replace the Green Monster by the end of the year. And what would he do to Roman Anthony? What would he do for a break? What would he do for the middle of that lineup? Take all the pressure off. I think it would be a great fit for them. I know they don’t love him defensively, but look, even when he ends up being a DH in three or four years, you’re going to have the DH spot open. So, I think that makes a lot of sense. And if not, you you you know, bring Bregman back. So whether it’s Bashette, Alonzo, or Bregman, I love any one of those three choices for them. Uh but they’re they’re going to get that number two starter. That’s the one thing I’m totally convinced of. From Boston to San Diego, Jim, let me ask you this. We have a a fan asking this question. Owl of Manurva wants to ask you, what’s going on in San Diego? They think that they’re going to blow up the team. Obviously, it has been said that the team is looking for new ownership perhaps. What do you think happens there? What does AJ Prello need to focus on? Yeah, they’re not blowing the team up right now. They’re not going to blow it up for 26. They’re going to run back as much as they can. And AJ Pller is going to spend the winner trying to get enough starting pitching that’s affordable um that can allow them to, you know, be in the playoff hunt, make it as a wild card, and see if they can’t run the table in October. So, they’re not trading Tatis. I saw a rumor out there somewhere that’s not happening. Um they’re not trading Machado. They can’t trade Bogarts because no one’s going to ever take that contract. So, you know, this is going to be the team. I think they’d like to get one more bat, but but they need at least two starting pitchers, and they don’t have a lot of money to spend to get those pitchers. So, AJ’s got to be creative. His farm system isn’t what it once was. So, he doesn’t have the trade assets that he used to have to make a lot of the trades that he’s made. Um, but, you know, I trust AJ. He’s a wheeler, a dealer. He never sleeps. He’ll outwork everybody, literally. I I think he gets three hours sleep a night. Um, so I think he’ll figure out a way. But the Padres’s are not going to blow it up. They’re going to go back and win. And yes, uh I think the team at some point’s going to be sold and hopefully someone will come in with enough financial wherewithal to handle all of the financial exposure that they’re going to inherit on the books and hopefully treat it as a hobby and be able to spend more money. You’re in Prowller’s position, exact position that you just explained. You need a starter. Do you go to Mason Miller and say, “Do you want to be our starter?” because we have Jeremiah Jeremiah Estrada already that can could be a closer whether they think that or not I don’t know but do you as a GM make that suggestion or do you need Mason Miller to come to me and say I’d like to be a starter knowing how much value that is for him as a start to be a starter well as a former GM and evaluator I’ll tell you Mason Miller would be a starting pitcher if I had the say to it um I remember talking to Mason Miller uh during the All-Star game not this year, the year before in Texas, and I asked him about starting. And he basically said that he wanted to close. He doesn’t want to start. He said, “I tried that. It didn’t work.” And I said, “Yeah, but you didn’t really give it enough time. You have the stuff. There’s no doubt in my mind you can develop into an ace, a number one starter.” I do believe that. So, I think if I had Mason Miller and I was AJ Prowler and Craig Stamon, I would be doing everything possible to try to convince him to start and develop because I do believe that he could become that ace and that’s what I would try to do. But you have to keep in mind if the pitcher doesn’t want to do it, you know, a lot of times it won’t work. Um, you know, we interviewed Craig Stamon uh the other day on MLB Network Radio and and it sounds like that he’s gonna be his high leverage late inning guy and it doesn’t sound like starting is going to be uh something they’re going to consider, but I’m with you 100% Eric. I I would start him if it were up to me. I love the stuff. One thing you had in your column was about Adley Rutman. Would the Orioles think about trading him for real? And is it because Bayia was there and they signed him to the long-term deal and they’re going to pick the guy who they know has already signed because this would be a large shift for the Orioles to make a move like this? Yeah, I I don’t think he’s going to get moved. I think the reason they’re fielding so many calls is there’s a surprising number of teams that are chasing catchers right now. Uh you usually don’t see this kind of demand. And so those teams that need a catcher, uh they make the call to Baltimore because everyone saw the contract that Bio got. and they also understand the Orioles are not going to be able to extend Rochman long term um and he’s going to get to eventually get to free agency. So, you know, by kicking the tires and calling and trying to get him now, I think makes a lot of sense. I don’t think Rutchman has even touched what he’s capable of doing. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. I think he has a chance to be an MVP caliber uh player in time. I don’t think he’s been developed right and I think he’s still going to get there. And I think there’s a lot of GMs that think the same way. But I I think Michaelas job probably on the line this year. And I would tend to think the only way he would trade him is if he got so much pitching back in a trade that he felt like he had to do it. I think more likely he holds on to his position players um and then just puts all his time and effort into starting pitching and relief help. And I think he’s gonna commit at least one long-term expensive free agent starter this off seasonason. I think he learned his lesson last year as David Sterns did in New York. You can try to outsmart people by these short-term high-risk starters. It normally is not going to work out. So, I think his focus is going to be on that. But, I don’t blame teams for calling him on Rutman. I would too.

Former MLB GM Jim Bowden joins Alanna Rizzo, AJ Pierzynski, and Erik Kratz on Front Office Unfiltered to tackle the biggest offseason questions across MLB. Jim breaks down whether the Detroit Tigers should extend Tarik Skubal or consider a blockbuster trade, how a Kyle Tucker megadeal could reshape the markets for the Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, New York Mets, Philadelphia Phillies, and San Francisco Giants, and why the closer market is about to explode. They also look at the Boston Red Sox’s search for a No. 2 starter, the San Diego Padres’ path forward, and why teams are calling the Baltimore Orioles about star catcher Adley Rutschman

Get 15% off The Perfect Jean with the code FOUL15 at https://theperfectjean.nyc/FOUL15 #theperfectjeanpod

Subscribe to the podcast!
https://apple.co/3KWKFNo

Follow all our social media channels for more content!
Tweets by FoulTerritoryTV
https://www.instagram.com/foulterritoryshow/

@foulterritory

https://www.facebook.com/FoulTerritoryShow
https://www.twitch.tv/foulterritoryshow