I’m back with another 10-game update using the same comparison method as last time. Instead of looking at last season game-for-game or date-for-date, I reorder last year’s results so they follow this season’s opponent sequence. It lets us compare how the Flames performed against these teams. It helps separate actual performance from the effects of schedule strength.

The chart I attached follows this structure. The dark red line shows last season’s results rearranged into this year’s opponent order. The light red line shows last season as it actually happened. The blue line shows this season so far. The thin diagonal lines are simple trend lines at different point paces so we can see where this year’s team sits relative to past performance.

One thing becomes obvious when you look at the reordered 24-25 data. Last season’s team played very well against the opponents in the middle section of this year’s schedule. When you line up the opponents from Games 28 through 66, Calgary went 24-6-9 against those teams last year. That works out to a 0.731 points percentage, which is the kind of pace you normally only see from playoff locks. It gets even more extreme if you focus on the opponents that fall between Games 42 and 66 in this reordered view: The Flames 0.800 in these games last year and lost only three times in regulation across 25 matchups. In the chart, it appears as a long upward slope in the red line.

Games 11 to 20 Recap

The second block of ten games this season was not good, but it was not out of line with what they did against these same opponents last year either. Calgary went 3-5-2 in this year’s Games 11 to 20, compared to 5-5-0 when facing the same teams last season. That is a difference of only two points, which is only a 16 point pace behind last year over a whole season.

Scoring continues to be a problem for Calgary, even worse than last year. In this segment, the Flames scored 25% fewer goals compared to last year’s results against the same opponents. They also scored three or more goals in four of these ten games this year, compared to six last season. Defence, on the other hand, looks almost exactly the same. Calgary has allowed 62 goals through the season. Against the same opponents last year, they allowed 63. This suggests the decline is coming almost entirely from offensive production, not from defensive collapse.

Next 10 Games

The next ten opponents remain challenging. Last year, against the same opponents, the Flames went 4-5-1. A similar performance would pull them slightly upward. A 3-6-1 stretch would keep them close to the 61 point trend line on the chart. Again, the difference between this season and last season for this specific group of opponents is small, only two points last year versus one win or loss either way this year.

2024-2025 Outcomes

Conclusion

The next ten games may not change the overall picture very much because the schedule is still fairly difficult. What matters more is what happens after that. The softest portion of the schedule, where last year’s team picked up a large chunk of its points, is coming up soon. If this year’s roster performs anywhere close to how last year’s team performed against those same opponents, they could move up the standings.

I think the Flames need to move some vets very soon. I don't want to see the Flames go on a hot streak when the schedule gets light. The Flames clearly need to draft a top end centre, and as much as I like Reschny and Potter, I don't see a dominate 1 C in the system. Every Stanley Cup winning team has one and this year poses a great opportunity to get one.

Who do we need to trade to stay at the bottom of the league?