I wanted to write about why the Leafs now are so difficult to watch, and frankly so bad. I started to write, but I felt background on how we got to this point mattered, although I tried to keep it brief. In the end, it was not as brief as I had planned, so if anyone would like to read my whole thoughts, I have them here:

https://medium.com/@liamgut/the-2025-toronto-maple-leafs-a-moratorium-f91b4afda154

If you would like to see what got us to this point, I have added everything I wrote from the start of the season to now below, and why I feel that both his roste construction and Berube's coaching have share of the blame, although the quicker fix would likely be in coaching, wholesale roster changes amongst the bottom six and parts of the defense are necessary:

EDIT: I took out the 2023 & 2024 seasons from below as people were just commenting too long and not engaging

The 2025 season started and Toronto fell flat. The league leading goaltending collapsed to bottom 5, largely due to a massive increase in rush chances against. While Toronto was surrendering the shot and chance share in 2024–2025, goaltending was doing its job, and the defense did their best to limit high danger opportunities. This season, high danger chances were even more regular, and the shot share and chance share declined even further. Toronto now had the tallest team in hockey, and the 3rd heaviest team in hockey, and they were bleeding chances, and not getting shots themselves. When the PP was scoring at will last season, you could forget how few shots Toronto was averaging. When Stolarz and Woll were saving 28/30 shots regularly, you could forget how many shots Toronto was giving up.

In Sheldon Keefe’s final season, the Leafs were 11th in shot attempt share, 10th in expected goal share, and 3rd in actual goal share. In Craig Berube’s first season, the Leafs were 25th in shot attempt share, 23rd in expected goal share, but 4th in actual goal share, largely due to being 10th in shooting percentage and 2nd in save percentage. The Leafs talent level allowed them to remain around the top 10 in shooting percentage every year, but needing to be top 2 in save percentage every year requires goaltenders to remain elite year-in, year-out, which is highly unreliable, and the defensive structure and performance to remain static as well despite other teams adapting.

Toronto now sits 3rd in shooting percentage, but is 30th in save percantage, a drop from 0.926 to 0.880, leading to a drop from 1st in the Atlantic to being tied with Buffalo for last in the Atlantic. The team has become taller, heavier, slower, and older under Brad Treliving, and under Craig Berube, they have become a team that is outshot and outchanced regularly, and as of this season, is no longer getting near league-leading goaltending to carry those deficiencies.

Anecdotally, Berube’s style of dumping the puck out and dumping the puck in requires players who are fast enough to get to pucks off the boards with or before defensemen, and able to win those puck battles to start a cycle. Instead, this teams bottom six are all in the bottom half of the NHL in speed bursts and top speed, with the exception of Max Domi, which means nobody in the bottom six is retreiving pucks. This ultimately has the effect that pucks are dumped into the offensive zone, recovered by the opposing team, and they counter up the ice, often with a numbers advantage due to the players still skating and getting into offensive position, and giving up more chances. Either the strategy on zone entries needs to change, as well as the strategy for breakouts as the Leafs are routinely unable to escape the zone with possession, which would be a coaching decision, or the personnel need to change.

I would argue both need to occur. It’s very clear from the immediate shift in underlying numbers that Berube’s style is not conducive to this roster, which was completely papered over by the incredible goaltending from Stolarz and Woll in the prior season. Treliving has also been unable to add players that would assist in this manner, preferring veteran players whom he is familiar and larger players rather than focusing on roster fit, talent, and ability to contribute to winning hockey games regardless of size. Even looking at Keefe’s final season, the Leafs fell from being top 6 in the prior 3 seasons straight in expected goal share to being 10th under Keefe with Treliving as the GM, to now 23rd in both years under Treliving and Berube.

My conclusion based on all that has occurred is that Berube needs to be replaced by a coach who will prioritize a possession-based approach that fits this roster, and if that is failing as well, that the roster is fundamentally flawed and Treliving should also be relieved as he has made a roster that is unable to compete. It is a pessimistic take, yes, but the results and eye-test back it up, and I believe the progression from the young, fun skilled team, to bringing in veteran leaders and defensive defensemen, to focusing on just defensive-oriented players and size, to now just prioritizing size at all positions has led to a team that no longer is able to defend or offend.

The biggest example to me is in players who tilt the ice positively. Pontus Holmberg was on the ice for just 18 goals against in 68 games in 2024–2025. He was a restricted free agent, and Toronto chose not to qualify him. He signed with the division rival Tampa Bay Lightning for 1.55 Million by 2 years. Holmberg started on the 4th line briefly before joining Yanni Gourde on the 3rd line, and being used reliably for defensive zone matchups to win the minutes and get the puck to the offensive zone. Instead of prioritizing players who can win their minutes like Holmberg, or Kampf before him or even Kerfoot before him, we have prioritized players who are large, not necessarily physical, but large, and that has led to a bottom six being crushed.

With Matthews or Tavares on the ice, the Leafs are still finding ways to win their minutes and outscore opponents consistently. Without either on the ice, Toronto has been outscored 33 to 18 this season. This is both a personnel and coaching issue, and both the roster builder and coach need to be held accountable for the rapid decline of this team.

If you made it all the way here, thank you for reading! I hope you enjoyed everything I wrote, and whether you agree or disagree, I hope this has been informative for you on how Toronto got to this point, and why I feel that Berube and Treliving have been more problematic than helpful for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Thanks!

14 comments

  6. Zero attention span weirdos are gonna think they’re funny, but this is a great post. I’ve primarily thought this is a pure coaching issue for the bottom six and that had a lot of potential. It’s interesting to hear a bit about the idea that maybe the mix actually isn’t good compared to losing the chemistry and ability of guys who could win their minutes like Holmberg or Kampf. Holmberg is someone I notice a lot when watching Lightning games.

  9. But now we can be like Tyson Fury and lean on other teams in the playoffs and weigh and wear them down and out. 

    It’s like putting on a Hulk Buster suit to take on the rest of the leagues Hulks.

    Give it time. We just need to make the playoffs.

  11. The Jays world series run was a reminder to jaded & disenfranchised Leafs fans, of what it’s supposed to be like when a city and its athletes come together to form one. The unity, the togetherness, the bond, etc.

    I’m not a big Jays fan, but I was gripped by this season of theirs. So much so that when they eventually lost in game 7, I was more devastated than any Leafs result over the past 30 years.

    I tried quantifying why – it felt obvious at first: game 7, world series, so many opportunities to win. Snatching defeat from the jays of victory = quintessential Toronto.

    But then it donned on me that the reason why the loss was so devastating, was because that Jays team is just so damn likeable. It wasnt just about wanting the Jays to win, but THOSE Jays, because they seem to tight knit and embracing of the city and its people.

    And thats exactly why I just cant find any emotional connection to this Leafs team. I want to like Knies & get excited about Cowan. But it’s so damn hard to really connect with this team, that so often feels abrasive with their own market and fans. Its that lethargy & complacency that makes it a real struggle to watch their games now.

    They are miles away from being a genuine cup contender – and if there’s one takeaway from it, its that this city and its fans are way too smart to be treated like idiots.

  12. Here’s an upvote and comment. Great read. I don’t have time to contribute to the conversation at this time.

  14. You just simply can’t keep firing coaches. It’s on the players to figure it out. And luckily it’s November. Lots of time to turn this ship around. Best built Leafs team I’ve seen in the last 10 years. Easily.

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