The big question

At 28 years old, Luis Arráez is one of the youngest players available. Coming into the 2025 season, he won three consecutive batting titles. And this year, he led the NL in hits. It sounds like the résumé of someone primed to cash in.

Instead, teams can't help but see Arráez for everything he isn't. Like, a passable defender. Or a source of any power. Or even a halfway decent baserunner.

Arráez is perhaps the greatest litmus test yet for the power of batting average in the modern game. He is an absolute contact savant, striking out only 21 times in 675 plate appearances this season, the lowest strikeout rate since Tony Gwynn was fanned 15 times in 577 plate appearances 30 years ago. And in a game in which offense has been poisoned by the punchout, Arráez's ability is worth a lot.

Just not enough, in the minds of executives, to warrant a big-money deal. Arráez won't be begging for a job, by any means, but because poor defense pushed him from second to first base — where he was not particularly adept, either — and his .292 batting average was barely better than a league-average hitter, his contract offers won't be bustling.

Arráez is genuinely great at what he does. What he does so great just happens not to be valued the way it used to be.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/46999006/mlb-2025-26-offseason-passan-predictions-free-agency-kyle-tucker-schwarber-alex-bregman

41 comments

  2. That’s honestly great news for us. Allows us to get a better deal and not overpay, so something like 16 for 2 is realistic

  4. I think we shouldn’t bid either. We don’t need his skills right now. He’s a cutie pie don’t get me wrong but we need power and good defense at first.

  5. And that’s one of the reasons why baseball just isn’t as fun as it used to be, to much emphasis on knocking a ball out.

  6. I would not mind him, but only if he comes on like a 3 year deal and very friendly team contract

  8. I’m sort of done on the Arraez experiment. Having super high batting avg, while still having a lower OBP that half the team really isn’t much use.

  9. One of the most polarizing players in the league, will be interesting to see where he ends up and for how much

  10. The market for Arráez really shows how the game has changed in recent years. That a 28 year old guy seven years into his career with a lifetime average of .317 and OPS and OBP numbers similar to hall famer Rod Carew at this point has trouble getting a long term deal. Arráez averages 198 hits a season over a 162 game mark. Needless to say, I hope Luis stays in SD.

  11. I know he had a down year last year but having someone like Arraez on a roster is more valuable than numbers will tell you, as long as you put him in a reasonable lineup spot. A guy like Arraez allows players (especially bottom half guys) to really focus on plate appearances more than power. The game is so focused on power now that even guys like Jake were trying to hit bombs. Bottom half guys should not be aiming for that most of the time and should focus on getting on base and turning over the lineup. Guys like Arraez are a catalyst to allow this type of baseball.

  12. Give him a contract that pays him per walk minus strike outs so he’s not incentivized to look at strikes.

  13. I am conflicted with Arraez. I like him as a person and see his potential as a hitter, but he is a risky signing and we need more power.

  15. Ill get hate for this but he is a bench bat. Cant have a 1st baseman with no pop, and cant have him at dh. On a non contender obviously not but I really dont see where a playoff team has him starting everyday.

  16. The problem is that when the sluggers slump, they still slug. When a contact guy slumps, he’s not doing anything.

  18. I think he will get less than 10m per season.  

    The dude clearly has excellent bat to ball skills which means he can see.  Yet he can’t stop swinging at balls.

    Dude should walk a ton and doesn’t at all

  20. Would be down for 2/15 or 3/20… **IF stammen is ok with putting Luisito in the leadoff spot, and is amenable to moving him down the order if needed.

  21. He’s only 28? Wow. While I’m not necessarily defending him. I think he was a solid defender

  22. Here’s my hot take, and I’m ready to get downvoted and discuss. One of the questions in bringing Arraez back is about the room for him, and how it limits the 1B power potential. My thought is, Cronenworth should be looked at too. He wouldn’t be a bad bench piece, but he’d be on the expensive side for that role, still being owed $12 million/year for the next 5 seasons. *IF* Arraez could come back for cheap, might it be worth it to trade Jake for a bullpen pitcher who could be converted to a starter? His contract isn’t so crazy where teams won’t take it on.

    Arraez can play 2B, and it could save some money for a power 1B. I think Arraez’s batting ceiling is higher than Jake’s. Arraez had more hits, more RBIs, more doubles, more triples, more stolen bases, more runs scored, more SLG, and less strikeouts than Jake in 2025. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy, but he hasn’t really had a season like 2021, hasn’t cracked 20 homers since, hasn’t had an average north of .250 since, or an OPS north of .750 since either. He walks, but doesn’t provide power to compromise. He also didn’t get *ONE* hit in the wildcard this year. I think it’s safe to say that last year might be an outlier for Arraez, considering the 3 consecutive batting titles before.

  24. I’m fine bringing him back on a cheap deal as long as they aren’t stubborn enough to slap him in the 2 hole all season again.

    He’s a very good bottom of the order bat.

  25. I’d love to have him back because I think his career bad year last year was a fluke, but I think we need him back at a team friendly discount

  26. Yeah, sounds about right. Honestly if Arraez isnt hitting .320+ he doesn’t have much value. He’s one small step above a pinch-hitter

  27. He tanked his stats this season trying to not to strike out. That rate went down, but so did walk rate a lot. As well batting average, OBP, and swings out of the zone skyrocketed. A guy who hits .340 and singles is great. A guy hitting singles at .270…..is not valuable

  28. His Elie bat-to-ball skills are more valuable when he is battling above .300. I want his bat in our lineup, but not to break the bank, add some incentives as well.

  29. They see him for what he is. No power, slow, gives pitchers free strikes, and refuses a walk. Nobody likes that. 👍

  30. If this team had significantly above average slugging production at most of “non-traditional” power positions; i.e. 2B, SS, C; I could see a case for having Arraez on the team playing 1B. You could sacrifice the lack of power at 1B because you would have other spots on the field to make up for the deficit. Unfortunately, the team needs more slugging and they only have one spot thats open right now in 1B/DH, depending on where Sheets slots in.

  31. Guy needs to use his keen eyesight to learn how to take more BBs. The swing-at-everything approach isnt going to age well.

  32. Remember when this dipshit walked back to the dugout after hitting towards the shortstop in a do or die playoff game? Yeah, we’ll be okay without him…

  35. Bringing back Arraez doesn’t allow us to upgrade the major issue plaguing this team, which is a lack of slug.

    This is the position where the team needs to add power. That’s it. Power, power and more fucking power. I don’t care about defense, I don’t care about his ability to run. I care if he can hit fucking home runs. An empty average isn’t helping this team in any way.

  38. He’s probably a couple of years away from accepting this but Arraez’s best role is pinch hitter. A guy who can come off the bench with runners in scoring position and just push the ball through a hole is valuable, but not financially valuable enough that he’d consider taking that role.

  39. Arraez will get a 1 year prove-it deal for around $12M. Doubt Padres would bring him back at that price.

  40. The guy didn’t have a great year but he’s a 3x in a row batting champ!!! Take advantage of the opportunity to get him on the cheap and spend that money on a starting pitcher!!! He’s not going to win a golden glove but his D looked fine to me.

  41. it’s almost like we have a hundred years of statistics that made this abundantly clear to anyone with a brain before they traded an actual first base prospect for him

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