No lineup addition would be PROBLEMATIC for Chicago Cubs

No lineup addition would be PROBLEMATIC for Chicago Cubs

If what I think Jed Hoyer is hinting at is true, then don’t expect the Cubs to add much offensively this off season. That’s obvious. You are Locked on Cubs, your daily Chicago Cubs podcast, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. You are locked on Cubs, part of the Lockdown podcast network. Now the number one sports podcast network. We are your team every day. I’m Matt Cozy and I’m a lifelong fan taking my passion into discussion with you on all things Cubs. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the FanDuel app today. Later in the show, we go player by player over what would be the current Cubs roster that includes a graphic and we’ll we’ll go player by player on that. Before we do that, we’re going to go over the latest on the payroll with some shocking numbers. Maybe not shocking for 2026, but but definitely the future outlook uh 2027 and beyond, but really breaking down how much wiggle room they have this off season, which Jed Hoyer talked about when he spoke Tuesday at the GM meetings in Las Vegas for his first official comments on the off season. And that’s where we start. We closed our last episode Sam and I did with about a minute long cut that included Hoyer saying it will be an active off season. I think we’re going to have an active offseason. I’m skeptical. Not because I doubt they will make additions, but because I wonder how many additions they will make that are impactful. And to those questions, Hoyer did reveal the Cubs plan for the off seasonason as they build the roster for 2026. Because when we got on the air last time, Marquee had just put out a clip like that that clip that we played and then shortly after we recorded, they released the whole 25 minutes of Hoyer’s availability with the media. Uh so we could react to that in full now. and he revealed their plans as far as I could tell. The the part that we did get to was that they were obviously that’s his his words. I think that’s obvious that they were obviously going to add pitching both in the rotation in the bullpen. But in the Fuller clip, the Fuller media availability, he never gave any indication to adding offensively. In fact, he said there isn’t urgency to add to the starting lineup and that if they had to play a game tomorrow, they could they could do that. They could do that just fine. move Seya to right Bisteros at DH maybe Casey off the bench Alcantra again we’re going to go way more roster stuff later in the show as well but he said there he actually used the word urgency that he wasn’t sure if there was going to be urgency to add to the starting lineup hinting that they will roll with the position players who are currently with the organization I agree that there’s openings on the pitching side, but to not add offensively could be very problematic for the Cubs. Is that redundant? Could be problematic for the Cubs. Kyle Tucker would be a big loss. Uh I don’t I don’t care what you say that it’s just it’s true. Not having one of the best 10 hitters in baseball the last five years would be a big loss anyway. You don’t have to even bring him back though. Also, you don’t even have to add Alex Bregman or Pete Alonzo or Cody Bellinger. What about Kyle Schwarber? He’s going to be in price range in theory for all the projections that we see now. Au Heno Suarez right now. Au Heno Suarez is projected for an eight figure deal. He’s not even a 100 plus million guy after all the home runs he’s hit the last few years and especially in 25 splitting time with Arizona and Seattle. They can’t go high AAV for him in 26. Maybe give him an opt out. What about Kazuma Akamoto who we talked about earlier this week? Sahadev Sharma specifically from the Athletic asked Hoyer at this media availability at the GM meetings, “Hey, what about a right-handed bat?” Hoyer basically shrugged his shoulders and then used the phrase bench bat when asked about adding a right-handed hitter. Maybe that’s something we would do off the bench. Never during the 25 minutes uh in the reporter scrum there was there any formal indication of yeah, you know, we’re going to lose one of the top 10 hitters in baseball the last five years and uh we get it. You know, he’s he’s probably going to get 300 plus million. Uh all the best to Kyle Tucker. But with that being said, you know, we need to replace one of the top 10 hitters in baseball. the last five years. No, nothing. Nothing about that. By the way, why can’t you add Suarez or Schwarber or Okamoto? Matt Shaw, for example, doesn’t have to start on a daily basis. And I’m talking why can’t you add them not just financially speaking, but roles as well and playing time. Matt Shaw doesn’t have to start on a daily basis. Seiya, Hap, Pete, Bush, Swanson, Kelly, they cannot be counted on to have the same season they did in 25. Sorry. By Steros, KCL Contra would basically be brand new. You could get better at third. You can get better at DHRightfield. the the bottom of the roster doesn’t have to be Gage Workman, John Birdie, and Justin Turner. Do do you know that? Do we realize that it doesn’t have to be that? That’s how they open the 25 season. Workman DFA, Birdie DFA, Turner 80 games on the brink of retirement. Shaw can be the sixman in 2026 to use basketball phrasing. He could play 120 plus games in that type of role. Shoot, he could he could or should play way more. Maybe he could be a defensive closer, right? You want to put your hipster hat on, council, could he be a defensive closer? every game. Final six outs. Shaw go to third. And then you get back to the hitting side. The Cubs finished fifth in baseball on runs scored this year. Fifth out of 30 teams. Really, really impressive. What player though do you project not to regress? I I count one right now. His name is Nicoer. I hope Michael Bush doesn’t regress. I hope he keeps it humming. Seiya Carson Kelly had a career year. But what are the threats going to be offensively on this roster? Where is it? Where’s it going to happen from if and when Tucker leaves? And by the way, I could possibly be sold a little bit on this lineup. Hap, Horner, Bush, Seiya, Pete, Kelly by Esteros at DH, Swanson, Shaw. I could be sold on that if they absolutely load up on rotation in bullpen. I could maybe. But if the Cubs are 22nd, let’s say, in runs scored after the first 60 games, don’t dial my number because I want Tucker back. If not him, then Schwarber or someone in the upper tier, but no middle class. You’re losing a clear starter in Tucker. Okay. If they trade for Joe Adell from the Angels and they’re 22nd and runs scored after the first two months, then what? And that’s my concern with them potentially not targeting offense, which Hoyer said they’re not going to do. Coming up next, Hoyer says it’s going to be an active off season. By the way, I think we’re going to have an active offseason. K there. I hope hopefully this isn’t symbolic. I think we’re not going to have an active offseason of the offseason they’re going to have coming out of the gates there struggling. I think we’re not going to have I think we’re going to have What was that? Hopefully uh I mean he recovered after that but man. All right, coming up next a payroll update. Stay tuned. Today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than FanDuel, the official sports penny partner of the NBA. Even if you missed the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. He keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. The Bulls made a little bit of a late push on Wednesday night. Uh down 23. They got it within a couple possessions to Detroit. Uh Bulls in a free fall right now, 5-0 to now it will be uh six and five. And uh other local news here, the Bears only plus three at the Vikings on Sunday. Uh overunder points, 47 and a half. Man, that would be a big win on the road for a Bears team that probably needs to win four out of the next eight to make the playoffs. And three out of the next eight might even uh do it. So visit the FanDuel app today. It’s so easy to use. And right now, they’re giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. Head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Thank you for making Locked On Cubs your first listen of the day. And thank you for making Locked On the number one sports podcast network. As of this moment, the Cubs have a luxury tax payroll of $170.2 million for 2026. This is according to fan graphs. Uh for the sake of this discussion, we’ll round up to 171, which means the Cubs are 73 million from the first luxury tax threshold of 244. And so I wasn’t a math major. Uh but that’s 73 million to spend this off season or at the trade deadline as well. However, as we’ve seen prices continue to skyrocket at the deadline, is that not all the more reason to build the best roster you can between now and say March 1st leading up to opening day, which by the way is Thursday, March 26th against the Nationals at Wrigley Field, right? do everything you can to build as good of a roster as you can uh this this winter and the Cubs should be really really close to that threshold. Man, I’m not one to be too convicted about them going over. I really even haven’t given it much thought um in terms of having them to to pay the luxury tax. I I understand why they would stay under and not want to pay the penalty. But they shouldn’t be in the final season of this version of the sport potentially because of the CBA expiring um in in now about 12 and a half months December 1st 2026. They shouldn’t end up like 10 15 million under the threshold like they were this past year in 2025. Why would they do that? So even if you leave like a $510 million buffer for the summertime, okay, I fine. I don’t really agree with it after the last three deadlines. Uh especially the last two where the Cubs were actually no last three, right? Well, no, really last two. 23 and 25. uh two out of the last three I should say where they were actually in in playoff position or in striking distance uh 24 they were they were out of it already at that point but so let’s say they leave let’s split the difference they say they leave a a $8 million buffer for opening day well okay as it’s currently constructed they’d have 65 million to spend this off season. This is the year to go for it. I’m going to keep saying it becau not only because of the CBA and potentially a shortened year in 27 and a payroll and a floor uh cap and a floor. But do you know that they only have one guaranteed contract right now for 2027 in Danby Swanson? This is potentially troubling to you. The 2027 luxury tax payroll per fan fang graphs is only 48 million or 196 million below the first threshold. How is 2026 not the season to go for it? And by going for it, when I say that, I mean getting the NL Central locked up, finally winning the division, and ideally being one of the top two seeds in the playoffs, obviously. Uh I think that’s obvious. Obviously easier said than done, but that’s going for it. giving yourself the best shot would be to have that buy, that wildcard buy in my opinion. Also, here are the players after 26 who are either unrestricted free agents. They’re just free to go or they have some type of optionality in their contract. Hap, Seiya, Tyion, her Boyd, Ray, and Kelly. Who’s going to replace them? Who are the internal options as you line up someone new for each of those people internally? I’m saying is the farm system actually going to absorb all those guys? Not to mention, we don’t even know how many games there’ll be in 2027. Actually, I did mention that already like two two minutes ago. Let’s take a look at the projected roster right now. Let me read it off left to right. Rotation and I was kind and put steel in because he’s probably not going to be ready on March 26th. Steel, Horton, Boyd, Tyion, and Ray. Bullpen, Palencia, Hodgej, Morgan, Little Roberts, Brown, Wix, Assad. I put Bayeros in the catching column to clear some of the clutter on the other position column. So catcher Kelly Amaya and Bayisteros infield BCH her Swanson Shaw and Johnny Long outfield DH by Steros would be a DH candidate here and then outfielders Hap Pete Seya Casey Alcantra that’s what it looks like as of this moment is this right now this is an 82 win team right 82 and 80 81 and 81 about 10 less wins at the moment than what just really happened in in really real life. 92 wins in 2025. I see as many as three bench spots open here because the only bench spots right now would be by a steros would be a lock and maybe a Casey or Alcantra. So then you got three more spots. Uh really well actually no it I don’t think Bisteros is technically a lock. Yeah as as many as three spots. That that’s a fair way to put it because backup catcher would be the only lock and then Beros. Um right now I see zero or one uh positional starter spot. It should be one, but Jed Hoyer hinted that it was going to be zero. I see one starting rotation spot, and this is really the key here that even transfers over to the rotation convo. I see six plus bullpen spots. That plus could include a depth starter like a Ray, like an Assad, or someone they sign. But Palencia is the only true lock in the bullpen right now. And I I understand I’m recording on November 12th, but they have a lot to do in the bullpen. And uh am I being harsh? I mean, that just looks like 82 wins to me. I And I I’m just I’m taking stock right now. I know there’s going to be changes and additions. Um, but I think it’s a reminder for myself, reminder for you. What is what does it look like internally right now? Okay. Uh, well, what does it look like internally? Let’s go player by player right there. Right after this, shout out to the everydayers. You can become a locked on cubs every day by joining us for every episode throughout the week. Some key date information here that I I wanted to go over uh before I go player by player on the roster. I think was in a previous version of my rundown. Where did that where did that go? I know the uh qualifying offer deadline is this Tuesday. Uh here it is. Deadline to accept or decline the qualifying offer is 400 p.m. Central on November 18th. That’s this Tuesday. Uh the non-tender deadline is at 700 p.m. Central on November 21st. Uh that’s next Friday about 10 days from now. Uh Tucker got the qualifying offer. So did Imanaga. Tucker. That will just be procedural. That’s a real decision though for Shota. Although John Heymon of the New York Post, NLB Network dropped a nugget on Tuesday or Wednesday that Sha will likely decline that. though there is some local reporting now that maybe they try to work out a two-year deal with him. Uh that would that would have been less costly than the original club option. So uh those are some key dates right there. Then that non-tender deadline next Friday the 21st because there’s so few players on the 40man. There’s only 28 players. You know, they have several non-tender candidates. Mine would be Maguire, Morgan, Hollowell, Little, Neely, and Roberts, but probably the only one they would need to act with urgency on by next Friday is Maguire because they have three catchers on the roster already with Kelly, Amaya, and Bisteros. Even if Biasos could maybe catch just, you know, 10 games in 26, that’s still three catchers. So, I think Maguire is going to be a free agent by next Friday. And then Morgan, Hollowell, Little Neely, and Roberts would be the next in line as they make additions this off season to maybe go or maybe those guys are a part of trades. But even then, let’s say they non-tender Maguire, you know, that’s 27 guys on the 40man, that’s still 13 people as a buffer to get to. So th all those pitchers that I mentioned, they might even they might make it all the way to Sloan in February. Uh we’ll have to have to wait and see. All right, let’s go player by player for a couple minutes here. Uh yeah, just really looking forward to the the return of Justin Steel. Um anchoring the top of the rotation there. Horton and Boyd were were excellent in in 2025. Matthew Boyd just won our pitcher of the year award. Kate Horton was second rookie of the year. He almost won our pitcher of the year award. But again, visualize somewhat of impact in between one of those three guys, Steel, Horton, and Boyd. Can you imagine? Steel, am I Horton, Boyd? Steel, am I Boyd, Horton? That’s why it’s so imperative that they add someone, right? And again, active off season. I think we have gonna have an active off seasonason, but that’s not Lucas Gilo, right? That’s going to be someone in the top tier, trade or free agency, right? I think we’re going to have an active offseason. Hope so. Uh Jameson Tyion, playoff hero, coffee connoisseur somewhere in there. And that’s what’s great about I say somewhere in there. He’s in there. But if they get Dylan CE Boyd or Horton might be your four and Tyone your five. That’s just that’s just a different You’re playing with different pieces at that point. Uh Colin Ray is back. They reworked his contract last week. bullpen a rotation option there. Javier Assad, same thing. I think the next two names, Wix and Brown, they’re on the trade market this off season. I think they would be add-ons to a bigger deal. Um, I’m not sure how much value they have. Roberts, little Morgan, man. I mean, that just shows how much work they got they got to do. Uh, you know, that would be surprising if they were in the bullpen if all three of them were. Uh, Haj is by no means a lock. Of course, Valencia is. And then you have Kelly Amaya Bayister. Good catching group. Um, you know, you’re excited about the ceiling potential of Bayisteros and his bat-to- ball skills. Um, if he sticks around is not part of a larger deal. Bush, her Swanson Shaw, right? Um, lot of uh gold either finalist or actual winners right there. Michael Bush with a lot of gold glove plays despite not being a finalist. uh they they need to add to the bench there unless they they gave it to a Jonathan Long. And you know what are Alcantra and Casey’s roles? Are they sixth or seventh guys to use the B basketball basketball terminology again? Um are they with another team? And then of course Sea Pete and and Ian Hav. So yeah, I wanted to show that here and it’s really early to do that. Um but it shows how much openings they have and to flip that you know framing around uh into optimism which I think it should be it’s really should be framed as flexibility both in the payroll 73 million to the first threshold to the luxury tax and roster flexibility. uh 12 40man spots right now, probably 13 if Maguire goes by next Friday. So, a lot to be done here, but a lot of room to do it and and very little restriction on what they could do um based on those two factors. So, uh, you know, the off seasonason will really get going next week after the qualifying offer deadline and, uh, Cubs Cubs have work to do, uh, to take advantage of this window and and go, uh, really go all in, uh, for 2026. All right, Sam is back tomorrow with uh, some more followup on Jed Hoyer’s comments and really Hoyer in general. uh tribute to Kyle Hendris who retired earlier this week and uh and more. So excited about that. Then we’ll both be together on Monday uh as we’re here five days a week in the off season uh through the through the winter meetings uh at least. And uh but yeah, so so grateful for you to join us and uh keep keep uh keep it here with us all off season long. and beyond. I’m Matt Cozy and this is Locked On Cubs, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. I think we’re gonna have Yeah, I really enjoy that. Um,

Jed Hoyer did not indicate the Cubs would add offensively this offseason. Find out why that would be problematic, how much the Cubs have in payroll to the first luxury tax threshold, a rundown of the current roster, and more.

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