DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates: Falling for this?

DK’s Daily Shot of Pirates: Falling for this?

[Music] [Applause] I’m going to give this another shot. All right. This team is not raising payroll in any significant way. Stop saying it. Stop echoing it. Good morning to you. Good Thursday morning. I’m Dan Kvachovic of DK Pittsburgh Sports. This is Daily Shot of Pirates presented by the Northshore Tavern. Comes your way bright and early every weekday. If you’re into football andor hockey, I also offer daily shots of Steelers and Penguins in the same place that you found this. The headlines have spread. Surprise team set to go on spending spree. pirates to have unprecedented payroll flexibility. They have no payroll flexibility. They never have payroll flexibility. And they’re sure not about to have it the year before all of Major League Baseball comes to a grinding halt in the form of a work stoppage aimed at installing a salary cap system. One would hope that all of these things would be obvious, but the headlines, and I did another search yesterday, don’t stop. And they’re even local. Like, they’ve sold locals on this on social media. There’s people going, “Oh, the pirates are going to spend. Look at this. What do you think of that? They’re going to go get Kyle Schwarber, uh, Josh Naylor, show Otani, Aaron Judge, and, you know, I don’t know, Cal Raleigh for behind the plate. There is voluminous precedent, not to mention as it relates to the stoppage, common sense to support that the payroll is not going up in 2024. And to my knowledge, only in 2024, at least as far as actual evidence goes, the Pirates lost money. We reported that exclusively at DK Pittsburgh Sports. Doesn’t mean they lose it on a regular basis, as some people have tried to twist it. It doesn’t mean that they’re crying poor as others have tried to twist it. Just means that in that particular year, they lost money. We’re not guessing at that. We have the evidence. So, throw that on the pile as well. Let me tell you what’s actually happening here. And feel free to spread the word to the headline writers and to anybody else who brings this up in any forum. This season, the 2025 season, the Pirates ended the year with a major league payroll of 87 million. That’s not what it was on opening day. That’s not this or that. It’s just the amount that was actually spent on major league payroll. 87 million. I’ve been told it’s not going to go dramatically in either direction, up or down. So, when the Pirates do spend more than the norm in free agency this winter, and they will, it won’t be because Bob Nutting or ownership said, “Here’s some more money.” It’ll be because they’ve already cut a ton. And I believe on top of that that Mitch Keller and his $17 million salary for 2026 will be traded. Going to put this in even simpler terms right now. According to Spotrak, the Pirates have a projected payroll, and I’ll explain what that means for 2026 of 62 million. The way they come up with that is they start obviously with signed contracts. They continue on to arbitration projections for guys who are eligible for that and then they stamp a reasonable price on the players who get minimum rock bottom. That figure is 62 million. So between the 87 that was spent last year and the 62 for the current projection, you’ve obviously got a gap of 25 million. Now, trade Mitch and it goes to 42. That’s that’s the space. That’s it. Nobody’s raising payroll. Nobody’s going to be doing anything that’s worth getting a pat on the back any more than the payroll assessment from last year or the year before that or the year before that or the year before that. And I can do that into infinity. So, if you’re going to congratulate the Pirates on anything, don’t be a doofus and fall for, “Oh, look at that. They opened up Bob Nutting’s wallet with a crowbar and got him to spend on a couple of hitters.” when in fact no such thing will have occurred if they actually did sign Schwarber who’s supposed to get 27 or so million per year in his next contract. If they just magically pulled that off, they just said, “We’re going to take all of our money after we trade Mitch and we’re going to give it all to Schwarber.” If they did that, it would not represent nutting suddenly becoming a big spender. Can can can everyone see the difference between these two concepts? How did they open up this space? Easy. They traded David Bedar, who was about to make 9 million in arbitration. They traded Krian Hayes, who was making around 8 million, if memory serves. They traded Bailey Falter before he was going to be eligible for arbitration here. That was probably going to be a three. You’re around 20 million right there. Just like that. Whoosh. There it went. That’s not adding to the payroll. Those are called subtractions. My goodness. I have a feeling I’m going to be on about this a lot this winter. Help me. Please make this clear to people. Nobody’s raising payroll. When we come back, J1Q. If you’re looking for a great dining experience, look no further than Northshore Tavern. Located directly across Federal Street from PNC Park, next door to Mike’s Beer Bar, Northshore Tavern is Pittsburgh’s home for Steak on a Stone. Enjoy your steak finished on a hot lava stone in front of you, where you ensure each piece is cooked to exactly your liking. or try their rotating selection of entre, hot sandwiches, salads, and burgers, all while enjoying the ambiance dedicated to the great players and history of the Pittsburgh Pirates all around you. Come see why everyone’s talking about Northshore Tavern and Steak on a Stone. It’s Gun Storage Check Week. Help prevent unwanted access to your firearms. No one wants their unsecured gun to be used in an accident, a suicide, or a crime. Use lock boxes, safes, and locks to secure your firearms. Learn more at gunstoch checkck.org. That’s gunstorage check.org. Brought to you by NSSF, the firearm industry trade association. [Music] Today’s cube comes from Anson. It’s good stuff. He he’s referencing the close of yesterday’s program that I offered regarding Henry Davis and says, “I really enjoyed your take on Henry. It would be fantastic if he could have a Steve Pierce like career offensively. Pierce was a 772 OPS guy for his career.” Here’s why I have some hope for Henry. his metrics, his exit velocity, his hard hit rate, his line drive percentage, they were all close to league average. And you’re right in noting that his batting average on balls in play was extremely low. My hope is that he might be able to put up Jacob Stallings like numbers offensively. Stalling sat around 700 ops-wise in a Pittsburgh uniform. It’s not what you want out of a 1-1, but he would be useful. And And you want to know something, Anson? part that I I like the best about what you say there isn’t just that there are things about Henry at the plate that show his skill set, his potential, and really just in general what he could be as a complete player if he were just anything above catastrophic level offensively. Because when he does make contact, it tends to be, and by that I mean barreling up contact, it tends to be significant. So what if he were able to find something akin to, this will seem like a strange comparison point, but hear me out. Remember Jared Triolo? Not this past season, but the previous season when he just had the ultimate luck and he would just put the ball in play like anywhere and it just kept finding grass. There has to be some of that that comes into his game. There has to be some real thing that occurs with Henry offensively, a real tangible outcome or result. As much as hitting coaches and everybody love to tell their hitters, don’t worry about the outcome and result, it’s really satisfying for the purposes of getting on base and winning the game and stuff, but you can’t control where the ball goes. You can’t control how well they field it. So, just just worry about the process. Well, if Henry gets some of these some of these bloops and bleeders and, you know, he’s not the slowest catcher in the world. he beats out some bouncers that get slowed down in the weeds, then he’d feel better about himself. I have noticed in Henry’s time in Pittsburgh that he’s a little bit of a different cat when he has some offensive success. He his chin is a little bit higher. He’s smiling more. He’s not taking everything so drop deadad seriously the way he tends to do. But I’m also not going to pretend that luck is going to be his savior. He does have to exhibit a better eye for those mistake pitches that I referenced yesterday. He does have to get deeper into counts. He does have to understand that not every swing has to result in his feet coming out of his shoes. My concern, and this is not a direct shot at Matt Hey, because he’s only been on the job for a year, and and I never think that’s fair for either a hitting coach or a pitching coach to be evaluated. There’s just too much going on. But I will say that I’d feel a whole lot better about Davis if I knew that there had been somebody, anybody who got better at the plate in the 2025 season. didn’t happen. Didn’t happen. What we saw was a whole lot of regression. A reminder here that Daily Shot of Pirates is a 4 day a week event now in the off season. So, we won’t have another one of these until Monday. And you’re going to have to allow me one last time to drop to my knees and plead that people understand what’s happening here. They are telling people that they’re going to be spending money and they’re actually going to spend money. I’m not denying that they’re going to pick up players that you would be surprised that they pick up. I’m not taking issue with any of that. I am taking issue with the now seemingly widespread perception that they’re raising payroll to do it. They’re not. They have whacked the living hell out of payroll. All they’re doing in spending any money that they do this off season is getting right back to where they were in 2025 and the year before and the year before. Appreciate you guys. Let’s hook up again Monday. [Music]

Are there really people falling for this?

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