Understanding Kyler's contract

It looks increasingly clear that Kyler Murray, for better or for worse, will not be our quarterback of the future. Given our shortage of meaningful games in this lost season, I thought it might be a good time to do a deep dive into what Kyler's contract looks like, what that means for our future, and why decision day is coming up sooner than you might think. Spoiler alert: nah we're fucked.

An NFL contract is mostly made up of two parts: base salary and bonuses. This distinction is extremely important in understanding how NFL contracts really work. A base salary is what gets acquired in a trade. Bonuses are paid out in full, in cash, in advance to the player. Signing bonuses can be, and usually are, prorated throughout the duration of the contract. Other bonuses are conditional. If a condition is met, the bonus is paid. The last important piece of Kyler's deal is the prorated option. Kyler's fifth year option was picked up at the end of 2021. We chose to prorate that fully guaranteed $36M salary over five years.

Here it is chart form. Note that we're ignoring the per-game bonus and the workout bonus, as they don't represent significant cap or cash implications. Next, we'll explore what happens to the cap in a cut scenario and in a trade scenario.

Kyler is cut

If Kyler is cut before early-mid March 2026, then this is the money that would hit the cap as dead cap:. In red is the amount we would incur from unpaid guarantees. In black is the prorated money we've already paid Kyler. Add all these numbers up, and that's where you get the $57.7M in 2026 dead cap figure from. Whether traded or cut, the numbers in the black arrow are non-negotiable dead cap. The 14.4M in remaining prorated option, and 3.5M in prorated signing bonus – only the Cardinals can eat that money. No ifs, ands, or buts, the $17.9 sum of the prorated money is the minimum dead cap we eat in 2026. It cannot move in a trade. The red arrows are what an acquiring team would pay against their cap.

If Kyler is cut after mid-March 2026, that 19.5M becomes fully guaranteed as well, which means our dead cap jumps to $77.2M. That money would be coming straight out of Bidwill's pocket and into Kyler's. That's why if Kyler is getting cut, he's getting cut before March. There is no scenario we would let that money guarantee if we don't think he'll be under center in 2027.

To recap:

  • If cut before 03/15/2026: 22.8 (2026 base) + 3.5 (prorated signing) + 17 (roster bonus, became guaranteed 03/17/25) + 7.2 (prorated option 2026) + 7.2 (prorated option 2027) = 57.7M dead cap
  • If cut after 03/15/2026: 22.8 (2026 base) + 3.5 (prorated signing) + 17 (roster bonus, became guaranteed 03/17/25) + 7.2 (prorated option 2026) + 7.2 (prorated option 2027) + 19.5 (2027 base) = 77.2M dead cap

Kyler is traded

This is where things get interesting. As mentioned previously, we can't get out of the $17.7M in prorated money. That hits the dead cap immediately. The rest of it is determined by timing. If March 2026 hits and he's on our roster, we owe Kyler that 17M roster bonus that was guaranteed in March 2026. If we flip him before then, the acquiring team is on the hook for that money. The last piece of the trade puzzle is the 2027 base salary. It becomes guaranteed on March 2026, so the acquiring team would be on the hook for that too.

Thus:

If traded before March 2026:
* Cardinals eat 17.7M in dead cap
* Acquiring team owes Kyler:
* 22.8 (2026 base) + 17 (2026 roster bonus) + 0.85 (per-game bonus) + 1.85 (workout bonus) + 19.5 (2027 base, fully guaranteed March 2026 for acquiring team) = 1-year, $62M or they could keep him for two years, which would mean:
* 22.8 (2026 base) + 17 (2026 roster bonus) + 0.85 (per-game bonus) + 1.85 (workout bonus) + 19.5 (2027 base) + 14.2 (2027 roster bonus) + 0.85 ( 2027 per-game bonus) + 1.8 (2027 workout bonus) = 2-years, 78.85M

That $19.5M that guarantees in March 2026 rears its ugly head here again. Because of this damn guarantee, a trade partner couldn't do a one-year tryout a-la 2024 Sam Darnold or 2025 Daniel Jones with it costing them $62M in cash. Base salaries and roster bonuses are convertible, which means the acquiring team can prorate this money into future years to lessen the cap hit. This scenario is unlikely because of how risky it is. Here's what the cap/cash implication would be for a trade partner in this case:

  • 2026: 13.8M ((22.8 + 17)/3, representing base and roster bonus prorated) + 1.85 + 0.85 = 16.5M against the cap
  • 2027: 13.8 (prorated) + 19.5 (2027 base) +14.2 (roster bonus) + 1.8 (workout) + 0.85(per-game sum) = $50.15M against the cap
  • 2028: 13.8M against the cap

The above is why a cut is ultimately more likely than a trade. If our trade partner does the classic funky NFL accounting, and Kyler sucks in 2026 for his new team, they're looking at about a $47M dead cap hit in 2027, even if they cut him before March 2027. A more likely scenario is that our trade partner doesn't convert everything into a signing bonus, but even that is way more risk than necessary. Realistically, if they converted something, it'd be the roster bonus:

  • 2026: 22.8M + 5.67M (prorated 2026 roster bonus) + 1.85 + 0.85 = 31.17M against the cap
  • 2027: 19.5 + 5.67 + 7.1(2027 roster bonus prorated to the void year) + 1.8 + 0.85 = 34.92M against the cap
    *2028: 5.67 + 7.1 = 12.77M against the cap <- this is a void year and would require a contract re-negotiation for Kyler to actually play

To recap:

If Kyler sucks in 2026, he represents a minimum of a $19.5M dead cap in 2027, and with a realistic the re-structure scenario above, a $30.84M 2027 dead cap (19.5 base + 5.67 x 2 in prorated roster bonus). These are eye-watering numbers for a new team rolling the dice on a year 8 quarterback with 0 playoff wins to his name. Here's the crux of the issue: it's too much guaranteed money. Even best-case scenario, Kyler ends up being awesome, it's a 78.8M fully guaranteed contract. That's 23M more guaranteed money that Sam Darnold got off a 14-win season. That's 28M more guaranteed than Baker Mayfield after he proved it in his 2023 prove-it year where he won the division and a playoff game.

What is Kyler Murray worth in the open market right now? I don't want to turn this post into a subjective exercise in speculation, but it's necesssary to explain why a trade is exceedingly unlikely. OverTheCap values him, injury-adjusted, at 14.5M. Removing the injury consideration, and I'd put him at 2-years, $50M with $25M guaranteed? Your guess here is as good as mine, but I'd be willing to wager that it doesn't even come close to a valuation of 1-year 62M or 2-years 78.8M, both of which are fully guaranteed. A trade would mean a team relieves us of a $40M difference in dead cap hit while also taking on a way overvalued contract with a shit-ton in guarantees, way more than they'd have to give out in free agency.

TL,DR:

  • We're cutting Kyler before March 2026 and eating the $57M dead cap because Bidwill is a cheap bastard
  • A trade is not going to happen because
    • the remaining guaranteed money is way too high and
    • more guaranteed money accrues if Kyler sticks with the acquiring team thus
    • an interested team can simply wait until Kyler hits free agency and offer a contract with way less guaranteed money and way less potential dead cap money in the case that Kyler sucks for them

13 comments

  2. Great thread, have been saying the same for a while. This contract is an albatross and will remain so until the day it comes off the books.

    In the somewhat unlikely event we do find a willing trade partner, the compensation is likely to be peanuts as they’d be doing us a massive favor just to get this money off the Cardinals books.

    There is a non-zero chance we could find a team willing to roll the dice though, that is primarily due to the brutal free agent pool (of which Kyler is really one of one in terms of just no one else of note hitting the market) combined with a ton of teams needing a QB and a thinner than expected QB draft pool. A team may decide they’d rather the assurance of getting him rather than compete with what is likely to be a robust market for his services once he is cut. Desperation can make front offices do some crazy things.

    While I’m not ruling a trade out and a team willing to gamble out of desperation and a thin pool of QB’s, in the end I agree. A cut is probably the most likely scenario.

  3. You forgot many intangibles, but I admire your analysis of the numbers in general. They are factual to an extent, but don’t encompass the entire package of value that a player of that caliber brings. Many seem to think the staff gave up on K1, the reality is, though not public, he likely lost faith in them after realizing the direction the organization was headed. It was clear to those outside of the organization, who really understand football, that the misuse of talent was undeniable, all over the field. The competence by the staff, and many other systematic failures that many others have already pointed out throughout the sub, needless to mention again. The injuries this season, and their timing, were not a coincidence. The effort, decline or lack thereof by the squad on all sides, was not a coincidence. There’s more to athletes than the prints on 8.5 by 11’s.

  5. This doesn’t take into account if the Cardinals are willing to retain some of Kyler’s cap hit. If they retained even 20% of Murray’s contract, he becomes a lot more attractive and we still free up a decent amount of cap space.

  12. The best scenario is cutting in 2027, but is the dead cap even as high as you’re saying at that point? It says 7 mil in your linked screenshot.

    But of course the Cardinals have painted themselves into a corner and it seems like they aren’t going to be able to trot Kyler out there next year. So have fun eating the 50 mil dead cap next year, would be nice to try to compete after you’ve been compiling players for 2-3 years but all good let’s just throw another season away.

    And remember, this is after Kyler played well enough to easily go 4-1 in his games playing somewhere near his floor. Backup came in, went 1-4 while having maybe 1 good game and 1-2 ok ones lol. He has the same espn QBR as Kyler did. Dumbest shit I’ve ever seen from the org and fans.

  13. I went to high school with his agent (who is a shitheel jerk) so it doesn’t surprise me that there is this kind of poison pill situation arising from his contract.

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