Red Sox Will NOT Have A Big Offseason

Red Sox Will NOT Have A Big Offseason

I got to tell you, Maz Murray, I smell some horse crap. I smell horse crap. Uh uh and and when he he says they’re in a position to do all those things, it’s absolutely true. They do have prospects to that teams would want and there’s no question that they could pull off a big deal. They could trade for trick school. There’s no question about it. They have the prospect capital to do that. Uh but to think that they are going to do it is another thing. And I’m sorry, I’m not taking the cheese. I don’t think they’re going to have a big off seasonason. I think they’re sending out a bunch of horse crap smoke signals once again to get people excited and they’re going to pull the rug out from under anyone that thinks they’re going to do anything substantial. I don’t buy it. And I’ll read the the Alex Spear column saying in the Globe that gives you that get that gets my antenna up even a little bit more. But first of all, Murray, are you buying on them having a big offseason? No. No. And look, they were they were a little bit more aggressive last year, you know, in bring in and making a trade and bringing in in someone like Garrick Crochet and sign signing Alex Bregman. But you could have done more and I just don’t think they’re going to do anything beyond anything like those kind of moves if there’s any even like that this off season that they like you said like this is what makes it even more frustrating this time because they actually have a good prospect pool. They have a way. Do they have the will? Probably not. I just don’t and it all comes back to the owner because I don’t think John Henry really cares whether or not they truly win or lose anymore. So, and what I mean by this, let me define it. Um, I don’t think they’re going to add a tremendous amount of payroll. Okay? I I don’t think they’re really going to leverage their ability to spend and be a big tax team. I I think they’re going to maintain that financial plan that they’ve had now for five or six years. That’s not changing. The bigger sample sizes, those days are over. Again, it’s five or six years now. They just don’t do that kind of thing anymore. Murray, can they trade for Joe Ryan who’s under team control and keep them below that second luxury tax threshold? Yep, they’ll they could do something like that. If there’s three or four free agents, will they take the third or fourth of the three? That is a more reasonable deal that keeps them under that second threshold. Yeah. Yeah, they might do something like that. But they’re not returning to the days that you remember. And any sort of hint otherwise is bull crap. Is a bait and switch. is just to get you to buy a ticket, uh, buy an app service, get a little bit excited to string. It’s meant to string you along. And that’s what I think. And if they do it, I’ll I’ll say I’m wrong and I’ll I’ll be pleasantly surprised and I’ll be wrong. But until that point, I think anything that comes out, you know, that says they’re going to be something that they haven’t been the last five or six years and go back to the old days is just stringing you along. It’s not going to happen. Maz, your thoughts. So, I don’t I don’t think uh you’re going to see any sort of blockbuster off season either. And and I I mean, to me, I’d be shocked if it happened at this point. I think they’re married to their uh financial and philosophical approach. So, what I I’m I’m still stuck on where I was yesterday. To me, they need three players. They’re going to get two. That’s what I think. And you can define that however you want. I I mean, I think they’re going to try to get the starter in the rotation, and they’re going to try to get a bat for the middle of the batting order. Since Bregman has left, they actually need two bats and a pitcher, and they’re going to be short of that. All right, I’ll make a prediction. If they need three things, there’s only going to be one thing that you like. There’s only one thing that you’re going to say that’s bonafide. That’s legit. That fills that need. There is a number two starter. There’s a middle- of the order bat. What’s the third thing? I think they need two bats. Okay. You’ll get one of two bats and a number two starter. You’ll get one you you’ll you’ll get those things. You’ll like one of them and the other one will be just to say that you did it. That’s my prediction. Could be something like that. One out of three. Especially because I read Alex Spear and I start to part I I I I can just feel the massaging going on here in the Alex Spear column in the Globe. How much can the Red Sox spend this off seasonason? I the headline even bothers me. How much can the Red Sox spend this off season? They can spend as much as they want. About $200 million if they want to. They can. They can spend as much as is needed. So what do you mean how much can they spend? Even the headline bothers me. Of course, they could spend as much as they want. Spear writes, “It can sound like I’m yelling at Alex, but I guess I am a little bit because I think this echoes what he’s being told and what the organization philosophy is.” And also sort of massaging the numbers. I’ll give you some examples. You’re yelling through Alex. I’m going to yell through Alex. I love Alex, but I just think there’s bull crap already emanating from Jersey Street. He said at the GM meetings last week, chief baseball officer Craig Brelo said the socks want to add a middle of the order power hitter and a number two starter. Those are big ticket items, writes Alex. But the Red Sox wouldn’t declare those areas as priorities if they didn’t think they could afford the spending or trade commitments needed to acquire them. Has he not did he just start covering the team today? Like I mean how could he write that with a straight face, right? Especially after what? Full throttle a couple of years ago. Thank you. The Red Sox wouldn’t signal they’re going to do something big unless they were prepared to do something big. Alex, did you just did you just get here? You’ve got to be kidding me. How many off seasons have they floated out line after line of complete bull crap? Full throttle. Thank you. Only to only to pull the football back and knowing that they were never ever going to do anything. But they signal it because they want to engage their fans. Maybe you’ll buy a ticket, download an app, just be engaged. It there’s nothing to lose by saying, “Yeah, we’re going to do something big. Yeah, we’re on Juan Sodto.” There’s nothing to lose by giving Juan Sodto offers that he’s never going to take and sit at a table with him and get it out there that you’re in on Juan Sto. What were the chances of them? So that’s like Alex saying, “Well, they never would have sat down with Juan Sto unless they thought they had a real chance to sign him.” Bull crap. They weren’t going to sign him. You know, they weren’t going to sign him. So like that line right there, I’m like, “Oh, here we go.” And that one, by the way, is decades old, too. The Red Sox have done that kind of crap for years. And I know that was different ownership and so you know, but they were always throwing the hat in the ring and then never being able to land the big fish or never wanted to or rarely being able to. Never intending to. M. True, true, true. Never intending to. Sometimes they tried and they failed. Sure. Back in the days, who who’ he turn over the hotel room about? Oh, uh, Contrarus or Tara. Like there were times they wanted guys and just failed in the negotiations. I think we’re in an era now where they have no intention of signing the guy. They don’t they’re terrified of the blockbuster contract. So, how could like how could anyone with a straight face say the Red Sox wouldn’t single or declare those areas as priorities unless they thought they could afford? Like, come on. Come on. So, as soon as I read that, I’m like, oh, here we go. Anyway, based on a Globe analysis, the Red Sox payroll commitments as calculated for luxury tax purposes with about 10 million earmarked for inseason moves sit at roughly 204 million, about 40 million below the luxury tax threshold for 2026. Okay, you know what bothered me about that line? With about 10 million earmarked for inseason moves. So wait a minute, your current payroll doesn’t stand at 204, it’s at 214. It’s at 194. No. Oh, he’s adding in the 10. He’s already adding in 10 that they haven’t spent for this in the Patriots do this all the time. Well, but but I I will say I think that 10 million is pretty standard. I think it it’s there’s always moves you make that add another I’m not giving an owner credit for money he hasn’t spent yet. The Patriots do this all the time. Oh, you’re you you’re this way. You know, not that the cap’s real, but you’re this amount under the cap or you this is your cash bet. Well, we have to keep flexibility for in the season for for when we get in the season. We have to have some roster flexibility. So, we’ve earmarked that 10. So, Alex has already given him credit for the 10 million that they haven’t spent. That’s ownership bull crap. Maz, don’t let him get away with that. Well, no, but look, Mike, it is a reality that if you please, but you have to budget for it. But I don’t give you credit for it before you spend it. Okay, but you have to budget for it. Their current their current payroll commitments are 194, not 204. See, I got you. And that’s just that. All right. So, you don’t like the way it’s said. It’s just typical ownership massaging and selling and obfuscating and I don’t buy I’m not here for it. And it leads me to believe it’s bull crap. They’re they’re counting their nickels and that tightly that they want Alex to already give them credit for the 10 million they need in flexibility before they’ve even spent it. Oh, so we’re playing that game. So, which means they have roughly 40 million below the luxury tax threshold for 2026. It’s really 50, but I have to peel back 10 for the the inseason flexibility. I think it should be more than 50. Of course, it should be more than 50 because there are two layers there to the luxury tax. They just crept over into the luxury tax last year. Now, I’m paraphrasing. They just uh just crept into it. Um last year, uh they spent roughly 5 million on payroll beyond the $241 million tax line, resulting in a penalty of about wait 1 million. 1 million. I know it’s embarrassingly low. GoFundMe, should we start a GoFundMe for that 1 million they had to dip into their pockets there? I’m working on it right now. I promise you. God. Thoughts and prayers. to John Henry and his uh group though you guys. Woo. Thank you. Thank God we have you. I want to do a bake sale. It actually cost him an extra 1 million. Anyway, notably spending 40 million beyond the threshold creates an additional draft pick penalty with the team having its top pick moved back 10 spots. Only once since the introduction of that penalty in 2018 have the Socks broached that level of spending. They’re not going over that second level. They might creep over the first. I would agree. But that second level, which they should be able to will be willing to blow through, give me a break. But to get to that second level, we’re really talking 80 million. And since I’m not giving you the 10 million you haven’t spent yet, it’s really like 90 million. But the way that it’s presented is they have around 40 million to spend. Bulk, I’m I’m being played. I’m being played by the Red Sox. And I don’t think they’re going to do squat. Well, the other thing is why school why can’t they go up to the other item without the other limit without going over exactly that would be around 80 70 or 80 90. Yeah, because I’m not giving you credit for that 10. I’m taking that 10 back which you haven’t spent yet. It’s really 90 million to get to that second threshold which isn’t all that bad either. 10 spots in the draft. Like really? No, they can I mean they can handle that but their system now they can handle that. and you’re drafting the 20s anyway. Like, what are we really talking about? And aren’t some of those penalties contingent upon them signing uh compensation free agents and then there’s compensate? There’s a whole another layer to it. It’s not worth getting into. The penalties aren’t all that great. No. Which they’re not going to do. They’re not going to sign guys that require them to give up draft picks anyway. So, uh he Alex says around 40 million. It’s low. That’s low. That number is low. It should be higher. It’s low. So now look at my I I get and 40 million gets you one real player, not more than that. Especially this has had to put aside all this money for, you know, their inseason flexibility. Yeah, the Patriots have been pulling that crap for years. It’s just such bull crap. Like you we all you know you got to be f and then the Patriots in season all they do is nothing or cut guys and save more money. Like please stop with this. So, I think you’re getting if not a big nothing burger, far less than what what you think or what they’re going to float out there. They’re going to float. They’re gonna be a lot of floaters out here coming this off seasonason. Man, if they do zero though, if they do if they do nothing, they’ll never live it down. So, I have a hard time believing that’s going to happen. But what does that mean? Like, who are they going to get? I told you what I’m worried about is this idea that they’re going to end up with one of the pitchers from Florida, Cabrera or Alcantara, instead of Joe Ryan. I think that’s a step down and put put Bralt on the list too. He’s not as good as Joe Ryan. So you you if you end up with a deal like that and then a secondary, you know, a secondwave free agent, a B-level free agent instead of the guys that are the A-level free agents on the market, that’s a loss. And again, Toronto’s going to get better. These the teams in the division are going to get better. Multiple members of the organization writes, “Alex, expect the team’s offseason pursuits to match its rhetoric that the 2025 season represents a critical step forward, but not an end goal. Multiple members of the organization expect the team’s offseason pursuits to match its rhetoric.” You know what that is? That’s Craig Brezlo saying, “You said we’re full throttle. You said we’re trying to win championships, so we’re gonna do this.” Right, John. I’m sure Brezlo would spend. I’m I’m I’m sure he also gets off on his system rankings as all these nerd, you know, CBOS do, but I think he I I think he wants to win as most guys do. And if the owner says spend whatever you want, most of these GMs, even if they’re nerds and, you know, system guys would spend. No. No. This is about Henry. Of course, there’s baseball people who expect to spend, want to spend, and expect that the organization will live up to its rhetoric that last year was just a step forward. Now, it’s time to really win. They expect it. At the end of the day, what’s Henry going to do? And I’m telling you, not much. Not much. And it’s not mentioned in this story. And I think a big backdrop is the labor negotiation coming up, too. Henry hates the current economics of baseball. He hates having to write revenue sharing checks. He hates supporting small market teams, quote unquote small market teams owned by billionaires. I don’t blame him on this, but he’s I would think going to be one of the hawks. And as we said, not going to be is okay. And as we said yesterday, he’s going to have to walk the walk if he’s going to talk the talk. And the talk is we need to get our finances in order. We need to change the economic system. We got to change how much we spend on players and the way we spend on players. and he can’t do that to his owners with a straight face if he goes out and blows through the second luxury tax and spends hund hundreds of millions of dollars. Not that he wants to anyway. Maybe that gives him the cover to do it, but it is a backdrop. He’s not going to It’s not It’s not happening this off seasonason, Red Sox fans. It’s not. You You’ll get maybe one thing that you like. Maybe the the the Japanese player makes perfect sense because the contract’s not much, right? All you’ve got to do is convince him that this is a place that he wants to be. Correct. and the finances work out. So, I could see that Japanese third baseman, I’m sorry, I forget his name. Uh, I could see Joe Ryan under team control. I could see things like that. But, you’re not going to get what you want in terms of spending. The bull crap’s already starting. Can already feel it. So, that’s my opening thought. Murakami is the third base.

Felger and Mazz preview what they believe will be a lackluster offseason for the Boston #RedSox

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