Week 11: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – Game Preview + Predictions

Week 11: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos – Game Preview + Predictions

Josh Allen scrambling, moving forward, still trying to get a free and he’s sacked back at the 46 yd line by Leo Chanel. It’s really not a mystery that the Chiefs have won nine straight AFC West titles. And it’s also not a mystery that maybe the biggest challenger to the Chiefs run is this year with the 8-2 Denver Broncos. The Chiefs are 5-4. And now they finally meet in a game that’s not a must game for the Chiefs, but a critical game. Yeah, it’s important. Uh the AFC West is still right there for the Chiefs. That’s the beauty of this. A lot of football to be played and two games against the Broncos, but we need to win these games, right? And uh a big time matchup on the road against a division rival who’s playing very good football. Let’s go win this one. Yeah, the Broncos six and two in one possession games, but their defense has been exceptional. You can argue that this is the NFL’s best defense. Really, a span of 27 games, they’ve had the best scoring defense in the National Football League. And their sack total has been the best after 10 games since the 1989 Vikings. Yeah, they have 46 sacks as a team this year, easily the most in the NFL. It’s 14 more than second place. That 14 sack gap is the same as the gap between second place and 25th place. So, it gives you an idea of how prolific his pass rush has been for Denver. It’s led by Nick Bonito off the edge. He has nine and a half sacks this year. He’s also fourth in the NFL with 48 pressures. But what makes their pass rush special is it comes from everyone. So they have 10 different players with multiple sacks this season. Uh guys like Jonathan Cooper with seven and a half sacks off the edge and Zack Allen up the middle with six sacks. Got to be ready for this pass rush because it comes from everywhere. Yeah, and Zack Allen is number one in quarterback freshers among defensive linemen. One thing I want to ask you about though, Matt, is the fact that this Bronco team is a little bit new school in the fact that they are the best quick pressure team in the league. We talk about guys getting the rid of the ball quick in less than 2.5 seconds. The Broncos quick pressure rate defensively is inside of that 2.5 threshold. They’re number one in the league. Yeah, and you got to be ready for it. Uh look at the Buffalo game a few weeks ago. Mahomes was pressured at a 46% clip in that game. One of the main reasons the Chiefs struggled to move the football overall is the pass rush was getting on Mahomes pretty quickly. That was easily the highest pressure rate Mahomes has faced all season. Actually, according to NextGen stats, going into that game, Mahomes was the least pressured quarterback in the NFL. Let’s get back to that. Easier said than done, but had a week to get healthy, to recharge a little bit. Let’s protect against this Broncos pass rush because again, it comes from everywhere. They have a quick pressure rate like you mentioned and also they blitz quite a bit. They have a 27% blitz rate this year. That’s top 10 in the NFL. They’ve blitzed the opposing quarterback on at least 30% of their drop backs in eight of their 10 games this season. Got to make sure you’re ready for that blitz. And yet the Chiefs from week four to week eight, the week prior to the Buffalo loss, were the best team in the NFL offensively. They were so good in the red zone, so efficient. And it’s really interesting stat when you look at Denver, they’ve had the most possessions of any team in the league. But you take a little bit further and it gets really interesting. Yeah. How about this? So Denver has 119 possessions this year. Like you said, most of any team in football. They have 28 touchdown drives on those 119 possessions. Well, the Chiefs have 84 offensive possessions this year, fewest of any team in the NFL, and they have 28 touchdown drives. So, even though there’s a 35 drive gap between the Chiefs and the Broncos, each team has the same amount of touchdown drives this year. Let’s get some more touchdown drives for the Chiefs here in this game, and not so many for Denver. That’s where it’s peculiar with this Denver team, cuz offensively, it’s gone back and forth here. Really, the story has been the offensive line. This is one of the better offensive lines in the National Football League, number two in the league in pressure rate allowed. They’ve only allowed 10 sacks overall. Um, and that’s the best in the league, but this is an offensive line that’s really grown, led by Quinn Miners, their right guard, and they’ve run the ball effectively. Uh, they’re averaging 129 rushing yards per game this year, near the top of the league. And that’s led by JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey. Dobbins is having a great year. Uh he’s fifth in the NFL in rushing right now with nearly 800 yards averaging over five yards per carry. Doesn’t have a bunch of like big performances in terms of like 150 160 yards, but he’s been consistently productive for them. He’s topped 60 rushing yards in nine of his 10 games and that opens up their play action passing game as well. And yet they just won a game where they had more penalties than they had first downs. Bo Nicks has been good at times, but he’s also had three wins this year and six in his career when he’s been below 70 passer rating. Yeah, very up and down with Nicks. I mean, he has 18 touchdown passes this year. That’s good. Uh, but he’s completing just 60% of his passes this season. That’s tied for 27th in the NFL. He’s also averaging just six yards per attempt. That’s 29th in the NFL. It’s a lot of quick short throws with Knicks, bootlegs, stuff like that. But I’ll give him credit. The Broncos are plus 60 in the point differential in the fourth quarter this year. That leads the NFL by a wide margin. Uh they were losing in the fourth quarter against Philadelphia, the Giants, the Jets, and the Texans. They won all of those games. And Knicks kind of has played his best football when it’s mattered the most for the Chiefs in this game. Don’t let it come down to the final possession. Let’s find a way to make it difficult on this Bronco offense. So, they’re not within striking distance at the very end. to accentuate that point. They are number two to New England in the league in clock killing or game killing drives. Meaning if they do that rally in the fourth quarter, they have the ball. You’re not getting it back. And that’s how Denver is 8 and2. Yeah, they found a way to win these games late. Uh the Chiefs have made a living off doing that kind of thing for almost a decade now, finding ways to win games late. Denver’s been very good about that this season. Again, when the margin comes down to just a couple plays like it has for the Broncos and these games against uh some of these teams that they’ve beaten, uh they’ve found a way in the end. I’ll reiterate for the Chiefs in this game, let’s keep pressure on them offensively. Make them match you drive for drive. Easier said than done against this very talented Denver defense. But don’t let it come down to the final five minutes because Denver, to their credit, has been great in those moments. Again, it’s easy to call this a must-win game for the Chiefs. It’s not. There’ll be seven more games after this, but it is a critical game.

Voice of the Chiefs Mitch Holthus and senior team reporter Matt McMullen preview the upcoming Week 11 NFL matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos on Sunday.

TUNE IN to Week 11 👇
📺: Chiefs vs Broncos at 3:25 p.m. CT | CBS
📻: 96.5 The Fan (eng) & TICO Sports (esp)

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