GET UP | Box Nix is MVP – Harry Douglas picked Denver Broncos to win AFC West title of 2025 season

GET UP | Box Nix is MVP – Harry Douglas picked Denver Broncos to win AFC West title of 2025 season

Big time machine. Harry Douglas saw this coming all the way back in July. That TIF for the very first time since Patrick Mahomes has has become the starter for the Kansas City Chiefs. They will not win the AFC West. I am going with the Denver Broncos because how fantastic they were on defense a season ago, but how they upgraded this season as well. Look, Harry. How about Harry? not only getting it right, it appears obviously the division race is not over, but it certainly seems to be headed in that direction and it has been their defense that has been dominant. Yeah, it was upgrades on their defense, too. Huang at the safety position, Dre Green Law at the linebacker position. On offense, it was two glaring knees. The running back position, tight end, Evan Ingram comes over. He’s been great for them. And then RJ Harvey, JK Dobbins has lost for the year, but he’s had a solid season, too. And what it leaves is the Kansas City Chiefs who’ve been in five of the last six Super Bowls scrambling for a wild card with a big game against Indie coming up. So Joe Forinball, let’s do more or less brought to you by ESPN Bet Sportsbook. And let’s look ahead to Colts Chiefs Sunday. Probably the most important game of the weekend all things considered. Patrick Mahomes passing yards total is 273 and a half. We go more or less more. The opportunities are going to be their fourth most passing attempts per game this season. Why? Kansas City has been ineffective running the ball and they’re not blowing people out, so they’re throwing for the full four quarters. Colts have been allowing the seventh most passing yards per game this season. So, there’s going to be a lot of opportunity for Mahomes as the Chiefs play from behind in this one. How about Indiana Jones? One and a half passing touchdowns is his total. We go more or less. We’re going to go less here. This number isn’t as easy to eclipse as some people think. Jones has only hit it four of 10 games this year. Kansas City’s only allowed it two of 10 games this season. The path for the Colts is going to be to run the football early and run the football often. If they’re scoring, it’s going to be on the ground. And then how about Jonathan Taylor, who’s been sensational, his rushing total 91 and a half yards. This is where we play the more workhorse running back, number one in the NFL in rushing attempts per game, coming off a buy, rested, in a situation where he’s going to see a ton of workload. Kansas City’s been good against the run, not great, about 18th in the NFL in opponent yards for rushing attempts. So, as long as we get the opportunities, I see a 100redyard day here. All right, if you like Joe’s picks, they’re a parlay. We’re going over on Mahomes, under on Jones, over on JT. If you like them, they’re a parlay at the ESPN Bed Sportsbook app. Look for the more or less featured parlay on the homepage and in the parlay lounge. Meanwhile, let’s dive into this game. Dan, the Colts have been great, but all year long we keep saying, well, wait until he has to face Patrick in the playoffs. As it turns out, here we are before Thanksgiving, and it’s the Chiefs who desperately need to win this game. Are they going to? No, I’m taking Indie. And because Indy’s run game is the Eagles run game of last year. It’s the best big play run game in the NFL in part because it’s the most athletic offensive line in the NFL. And I think that’s going to be a huge challenge. Yesterday we talked about Tyler Warren and how he matches up. Tanner Bordellini is the big deal for me. Okay, Jonathan Taylor in the gun. He’s one of the rare centers that you could pull in the NFL. What that does, it creates angles for your offensive line. It also creates voids in a defense because athletically you got to move move so sideline to sideline. There’s a big chunk run. I mentioned Philly last year cuz Philly consistently had felt like game to game a 60-yard touchdown run where Saquon would make this massive run out of maybe a 5-y defense to overcommit. Something Kin City’s going to do because you have to stop the run. Jonathan Taylor’s strength constantly keeps his feet going and then his ability to win in the open field one-on-one tackling while also running away from defenders has been something we have not talked about enough this this year. their ability or willingness to block downfield is a all 11. This this Kent City defense is good. It’s not what it has been in the past. I think the big play run element of of Indianapolis is a huge deciding factor. Let’s talk about how significant would be if Dan is right. Can we put up B7, please? The Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives. If they lose this game, their chance of making the playoffs fall to 35%. There’s a two in three chance, Bart Scott, that Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Travis Kelce miss the playoffs. Are we seeing the end of what has been an extraordinary historic run in KC? I think we are. We’ve seen this before, right? History kind of repeats itself sometimes. We saw this in New England where, you know, Tom Brady had different iterations of greatness. I think the window was still open whenever he had Patrick Mahomes, but it’s time for a reset. You You talk about guys like Chris Jones. You talk about Travis Kelce, they’re on their last leg and they’re trying to squeeze out another Super Bowl on the way. I think it’s it’s over, but they’ll be back and um I think right now you have a a teams that don’t fear them anymore because they know they’re not a legitimate threat. I think their their their fate was sealed when they decided to hold on to the fourth round draft pick and not give up the third for Bree Hall. This team is onedimensional, too dependent on on Patrick Mahomes and his defense isn’t what it once was. We could put the picks up on the screen because we do have some who are not ready to give up on Kansas City. Even though you picked Denver to win the division, you like KC Sunday. I I do. And and part of it is because Patrick Mahomes, I call that game versus the Diva Broncos. And outside of his first throw, the next three were misses by Mahomes. He missed Xavier Worthy on a post route. He missed Taekquin Thornton on a go route down the sidelines. And then it was a miscommunication between him and Noah Gray in the middle of the football field. And check out this first one. This is Xavier Worthy. How many times have we seen Patrick Mahomes in his career miss a wideopen wide receiver? Xavier Worthy runs a 421 and then check out this one. This is Taekquin Thornton down the sidelines. I’m so accustomed to seeing Mahomes do this in his entire career. You got to make these plays. And then when he got down to the tight quarter, he turned the football over. So for Patrick Mahomes, he has to be on his P’s and Q’s. You get into the dance, you have a chance. I’m not really to put a seal over him yet. I’m not ready to declare this season over AFC West or the AFC in general. They’re 0 and5 in one score games. They were 12-0 in those games last year. You say, “Well, what’s the pro?” It’s very confusing. They have all the same players. They have all the healthy guys they need. They have all the same coaching staff. Little things matter, though, guys. They had 10 penalties last week. They don’t do that usually. They had an extra point blocked last week. That doesn’t happen. They give up an 80 yard punt return to Marvin Mims. That doesn’t happen against that special teams unit. So, the little things are starting to matter. I think they can still tighten up. And I look at this this matchup. I know. We’re ready to crown the Colts and Tanner Borderlin. I know we love a good Tanner Borderline film. I do. I love that. I love it. It’s a great bowl. It is good. That said, like I don’t know, Mahomes with the season on the line at Arrowhead. I I’ll take Mahomes in this game on 1:00 on Sunday. I’m with you. They’re but but they’re chasing Buffalo. They’re chasing Houston. They’re chasing Jacksonville, who all have wins over them, at least two of the three. They’re chasing the Chargers. They’re chasing Baltimore. They’re in a hole right now. If they lose this game, I think they’re going to be done. 10 seconds. Are we talking about the L anorumo effect, too? Remember, he’s a guy that’s been the kryptonite and he got what he needed with sauce. He knows how to play this Kansas City concept offense. I think you know it’s over for a reminder, Lou is now the defense. That action on Monday Night Football at 8:15 Eastern on ESPN. What does it all mean at the window, however? Sports betting analyst Joe Foronball is with us. Joseph, what’s a play you like? I’m going to interrupt you right there. Did you say Did you say decades or decades? Churched it up a little bit. I said decades. I was trying to elevate the level of discourse and then you come on. Thank you. Thank you. So, I did it all for you. Week 12, sir. What’s a play that you enjoy? I do like Dallas plus the three and a half over Philadelphia. Don’t trust the Eagles offense. 17 or fewer points in four of their last six games. What’s the ceiling? If we’re asking you to go on the road and cover three and a half points, can you hang 35 if you need to? This is an improved Dallas defense. Overshon’s back from injury. Quinn and Williams, Logan Wilson were added. They’re not a great defense, but they’re a decent defense. And offensively, they can put some points up on this Philly defense, which looks fantastic. Basic analysis, but I do like the three and a half points. I think it should be inside a field goal. Okay. All right. Where else? If you’re looking at the slate so far, where else can you find value, Joe? New Orleans minus two and a half over Atlanta. The money has been pouring in on the Saints. They opened as a small dog. Now they’re minus two and a half. Atlanta without Drake London, which is what we’re looking at this weekend, is a putrid offense. Take a look at these stats. Yards per play drops off as well from around 5 and a half down to about 4.4. Kurt Cousins is clearly not the guy we remember from a few years ago. He’s not taking shots down the field. He doesn’t have a lot of mobility. Saints are off the buy. They’ll be able to run the

GET UP | Box Nix is MVP – Harry Douglas picked Denver Broncos to win AFC West title of 2025 season