Will Minnesota Vikings SHOCK the Green Bay Packers?!

Will Minnesota Vikings SHOCK the Green Bay Packers?!

Like a dog in the street. Purple Daily is daily Vikings entertainment. We just want the Vikings to win a Super Bowl before we die. I will ride with this group. Seriously, man. Please. And away we go. All right, gentlemen. It’s time to make our official picks here where uh if we uh continue on the path that we’ve been on, we’re probably not going to be right. But that’s okay. We’ll see how the chips fall at Lambo Field on Sunday. We’re going to go through what the markets are saying about this game and who we think is going to win and by how many after we shout out North American Banking Company, which has been Minnesota based since 1998. If you’re looking for a better, more personal, and even local banking experience, North American Banking Company is here to help you with whatever it is that you need financially. Whether it’s just the blocking and the tackling, the checking, the savings, or maybe you’re planning on something bigger like buying a home, financing a new project or a new business, North American Banking Company will help give you peace of mind about where you bank. I’ve been working with them now for uh I don’t know several months and really appreciate again the personal relationships and the cutting edge online tools all with a local experience. nab bankcode.com/mackey to learn more that’s nab bankco.com/mackey member FDIC equal housing lender. Hey guys. Hello. How are we feeling? Um how are we feeling? How are we feeling? Four and six packers coming up. You know what I missed this week? And Phil, I think that you alluded to this at our Thursday appearance at the Buffalo Wild Wings in Roseville. I miss the anticipation of Packer Week. Like we we didn’t get it, you know? It’s a good point. Anyway, it’s like we didn’t get it. And we’re too caught up in our own BS right now with the Vikings to worry about the Packers at this point. It’s that’s always my favorite two weeks because it’s always, you know, buildup and blah blah blah. And I when things aren’t going well, it sort of sucks. Last year was awesome. Both games both games had awesome awesome buildup uh for them. You’re right that uh yeah, I’m trying to remember like this is about I’m sure there’s been other years too. About as flat as I have felt about uh the buildup for a Packer Vikings game. Yeah, you probably have to go back in 2023. Didn’t we get like a we had the Jiren Hall game on Sunday Night Football and we all and I think but and I think we all knew like this is going to be bad and it Yeah. And it was there have been times uh you know going back to like 201 what 12ish or 11ish that the team stunk and it just wasn’t fun. But I love the buildup and I miss it when you don’t get it. Yeah. Well, here’s how we’re going to frame this game up here. Uh, Vikings six and a half point underdogs in most sports books right now. Where’s the money going? Where are the bets going? According to Action Network, 60% of bets are on the Vikings. 58% of money is on the Vikings. So, the the betting public is leaning Vikings with that 6 and 12 point number. Let’s comb through some of what the sharps are saying on the Action Network primer for this game. This is where I’m going to throw a bunch of crazy, possibly conflicting information at you guys and you can sift through it. Oh yeah. So, the Packers have lost two consecutive games straight up against the Vikings. You have to go back to 2005 to find the last time the Packers lost three straight, both straight up and against the spread versus Minnesota. So, I should say they lost both games straight up and against the spread. It’s uh been a long time since that last happened. Uh, let’s see here. Matt Lafleur and Kevin Oonnell have met six times as head coaches. This is the first time Green Bay has entered with a better record than Minnesota in any of those matchups. Mhm. I guess that Jiren Hall matchup was the same record. Were they were the Packers? Well, yeah. Well, yeah, the Well, the Packers that was the year that they they won like six games down the stretch to get in at nine and eight, right? And then they beat the Cowboys on wild card weekend. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, okay. Interesting. Uh JJ McCarthy has had struggles this season, but his play on the late downs has really put Minnesota in a bind. He is seven for 23 passing on third and fourth down with five or less to go. And as we’ve documented, it’s even worse with three or less to go. He’s actually over on the season. We um in the business call those weighty downs. Weighty downs. That’s right. The weighty weighty beefy downs. I don’t think I’ve ever heard them called beefy, but I like it. That’s right. Uh, the Vikings aren’t doing much right this season. They are 4-6 both straight up and against the spread. And here is their against the spread records by quarter this season. 4-6, 3-7, 4-6, 4-6. So, even by quarter, they’re below 500 against the spread. Vikings, uh, the Packers are just three and seven against the spread through 10 games. Only the Commanders have a worst a worse against the spread mark this year and they’re three and eight. So, the Packers are not good against the number so far this year. Okay. Uh entering week 12, the Packers have the toughest remaining strength of schedule of any team. Opponents have a 60% win percentage right now. The easiest game on the schedule is against the Vikings. Yes. Record games against the Vikings. Yes. Yeah. How about that? So, did did the Packers replace the the Vikings starting with this week in that category? Because there was a stretch where the Vikings had the hardest remaining schedule like starting with that that gauntlet that went through. Um, I think it was after the first game was I think Commanders losing again and Giants losing again, but I’m saying the NFC North’s up against it. Yeah. And then, let’s see here. The Packers have made a habit of starting slow this season. and they are 3-7 against the first half spread and then they pick it up in the second half. So, you know, there’s not a ton of indicators here. Although, here’s one. The Packers are 0 and6 against the spread this season as a four-point favorite or more. The first team 0 and6 against the spread or worse in this spot through 11 weeks since the 97 Packers at 08 and one against the spread went favored by four points more. So, it’s been bad for them when they are favored by four points or more, which they are 6 and a half against the Vikings on Sunday. The N did the 97 Packers went to the Super Bowl, right? They did. Yeah, they that was they got beat by the Broncos. Yes. Yeah. Yes. Interesting. Pretty sure, right? Yeah, because they won it in 96 and 97. They did. So, okay, with that, what are you guys most confident in on behalf of the Vikings? I am most confident in and this is an overall big picture thing. Uh but I am most confident in that um we are not going to see the takeaways are not going to decide this game. And here is why. Okay. The Vikings are tied for 24th with four teams with nine takeaways this season. Three picks and six fumble recoveries. By the way, five of those turnovers came in the Bengals game. Five of them. They have one interception outside of the Bengals game and that was against the Chargers. That’s crazy. The Packers, conversely, have eight takeaways, less than the Vikings. They have both four uh picks and four fumble recoveries. So, I am confident I am most confident in, you know, you always talk about sudden change takeaways that takeaways are going to play a very small role. The interesting thing about this stat though is the Vikings are 31st in the entire league in turnover differential minus nine. The Packers are plus one. They’ve only given the ball away seven times. Yeah. Yeah. They’ve lost it. So, yeah. So, that is what I am most confident in. We’re not going to see a lot of takeaways in this football game. Interesting. I feel like all of that means that we’re due for a crazy takeaway game. I hope so. On both sides. It’d be more fun. Yeah. Uh but that is that is really interesting. Yeah. The Vikings the that’s one of the the biggest reasons why they are out of the playoffs essentially compared to last year when they were 14 wins is they were one of the best turnover margin teams in the league and now they’re one of the worst turnover margins. The Bears are the best. Yeah. Yep. Yeah. They uh the Bears have forced a takeaway on 20% of opposing offensive drives. literally one in every five offensive drives against the Bears defense results in a turnover. And it’s, you know, there’s some credit to the Bears for for being opportunistic there, but that there’s also a lot of luck and some other smoke built in there where like, okay, a quarterback a ball gets tipped or something or, you know, a ball is thrown errantly into the arms of a of a quarterback that maybe isn’t in most games. Do you guys think that that because you know to go back again to make the comparison I guess to the 22 Vikings and the 25 Bears. Do you guys think part of it it’s not just luck. Do you think part of it is your defense is not great? So teams are like let’s take advantage. Let’s pass on that and and so be because I do feel I do feel like part of the Vikings thing is teams decided that they could run a bit more against them and you’re probably not going to have as many fumbles as potential picks. So, it feels like it might be luck, but like the Bears defense is bad. So, I can see teams saying, “Let’s pass the ball against them.” Well, that leads to more opportunities to pick off the ball. Running the ball against the Bears is the right play. They give up five and a half yards a carry, but you know, wouldn’t want to wouldn’t want to run the ball 30 times in a football game. Dex, what are you most confident in on behalf of the Vikings? Uh, so I’m most confident in the Packers continuing this amazing stretch of playing down to their competition. And I know Vikings fans are probably a little bit offended by that uh because it is a Vikings Packers game, but the Packers have we just as we as we just outlined uh do not cover spreads very often. Um they have a tough time putting away really bad teams and teams that are worse than them. And even to kind of borrow um an idea from our guy Jason Harmon at our BDubz thing, this is lining up to me with all with all the bad juju that’s around the Vikings to be the most quintessential Vikings W that that happens because you you think, oh, this season is now over. Uh they’re six and a half point dogs in Green Bay. Uh playoffs are a far so like what what’s there left to play for? To me, that that screams, oh, this is gonna be a classic get right game. Uh, so yeah, the Packers do some things well and there are things that do make me nervous. I’ll get to that. But with just the spreads that the Packers always playing down to it and just the vibes likely shifting, I I still actually really like the Vikings chances even on the road in Green Bay for this week. Um, I’ll give you I’ll give you let’s see here. I’m going to give you two things actually most confident in. Positive Phil is going to double up on the the things that he’s most conf. So, number one, actually, you know what? Number uh number two, I could put in the nervous because there’s actually two sides to the second one. So, I’ll I’ll kind of I’ll carry over into both categories here, but the Packers run defense was really stout until November. So the the first seven games of the season for the Packers run defense, they gave up 46 yards to the Lions in week one, 51 yards to the Commanders in week two, 96, Dallas in overtime, they did ding them for 117. And then Cincinnati 55, Arizona Pittsburgh, both road games for the Packers, both under 100. It was maybe the the top or one of the top three rushing defenses in the league until the last three games. But in November, Rico Dowel got him for a buck 30 for Carolina. And last week against the Giants, the combination of Tyrone Tracy and Devin Singleary for a buck 32 against that Packers defense. So again, it’s up to Kevin Oonnell. The Vikings are a very good rushing team when they do it. They’re eighth in yards per attempt. And the Packers run defense has been pretty leaky. They gave up over a hundred to the Eagles who’ve had a hard time getting their run game going too. A lot of that was J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J Jaylen Herz ran around a little bit, but uh you the the la the last month you can run the ball on the Packers defense. So, and then I’ll I’ll lead off the next category because it kind of straddles the thing I’m most confident in and the thing I’m most nervous about. Jordan Love when the pocket is clean versus when he’s pressured is one of the most I would say wide gaps of any quarterback in the NFL. So, the thing I’m most nervous about is when the pocket is clean for Jordan Love. He’s one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Clean pocket. This dude has an 82% completion mark. And actually, if you take away drops and throwaways, 87% adjusted completion percentage for Jordan Love when the pocket’s clean, 15 touchdowns, one interception, and a 127.5 passer rating. So, if if he is operating in a clean pocket on Sunday, you’re losing or at least you’re going to have to score 30ome points. On the flip side, back to the thing I’m most confident in, he’s one of the worst quarterbacks in the league when pressured. So, when he’s pressured, that completion percentage drops to 38%, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer rating of 45 a half. Wow. So, I don’t know that there is a wider gap between the performance of a starting quarterback when kept clean versus when pressured. So, this all comes down to can Brian Flores and company get to Jordan Love. Uh there’s kind of a a funny twist in here, too, because just because you blitz doesn’t mean you’re going to get a pressure. The blitz has to get close to home for it to be a pressure, right? Uh when blitzed, Jordan Love is awesome this season. So, the Packers offensive line has done a really good job picking up blitzes and Jordan Love has done a good job getting the ball out when blitzed because when he’s blitzed, his passer rating is 110.3. So, uh whether you’re blitzing or not, if you get pressure on Jordan Love, he’s not good. It all comes down to that Packers offense versus Viking defense to me. Now, here’s the key thing, too. Um the Packers center Jenkins is out and so Shawn Ryan is going to be making his second career start at center so you need that interior pressure. Jonathan Allen gap Hargrave exactly Hargrave it’s time to step up Redmond. Redmond’s been great. He deserves credit. Levi Drake Rodriguez Dervishes in the middle there you because I mean if you can get pressure from the interior like that yeah that’s going to that’s at least going to give you a chance. All right. What What are you most nervous about, Jud? Uh, well, I mean, JJ McCarthy, I said it. Yeah. Yeah. It just has to be like it’s it’s by this point it’s redundant, but JJ McCarthy, I I just don’t know. I don’t know what you’re going to get. I don’t know what you’re going to get. Are are you going to get a guy that uh shows progress, that hits more passes than he misses? Are you going to get a guy that can’t hit the broadside of of a barn? are are you going to get a play calling game that you don’t like that’s not going to run enough that’s going to try to pass the ball? Like there’s just so many variables here that go into to this and and again I am just prioritizing his growth right now. I am not even prioritizing a win. I know wins are nice. I get it. But I am prioritizing his growth. What’s best for the child? That’s my question. I am like an adoption agency for quarterbacks. Okay. And Kevin Oonnell, you’re adopting trying to take them. Are you trying to take him out of this home or are you You am an adoption agency in CPS. Your CPS. I am asking you, can I do a visit? QBPS. You know what I’m going to do? I’m going to do a surprise visit. Impromptu surprise visit to see how the child is being handled. What are your intentions for the child? I’d like to see that. Yeah, it is. I mean, it is the Yeah, like JJ McCarthy is the thing that is the most uncertain 100%. So that is a fair thing to be nervous about. And the Packers defense, you know, they’ve had some blips here and there, but like by and large, it’s a really good defense. So, yes, it’s well coordinated for sure. The thing that makes me the most nervous going into this game, um, the Packers offense just sustaining long drives. So, number one, no one is better on third down than the Packers offense this year. They lead the NFL in third down percentage. Um, in terms of time spent, they’re eighth. In terms of plays ran, they’re eighth. This is just terms of offensive plays run throughout the course of a game. Um, in yards, they’re they’re their yards per drive. They’re also fifth. So, like they can keep their offense on the field for a long time. And and a big problem for the Vikings, and it feels like a seasonl long thing, but especially recently is the Vikings defense can’t even get off the field on third and longs. So, if you’re combining that with a team that’s really good at long sustained drives and converting in those third down situations, I mean, that that would make that would make me the most nervous going into this game is just a time of possession. And the Vikings also, conversely, being really bad, getting three and outs a lot on offense, so they can’t give their defense a break. So, those are the things that will definitely make me the most nervous. Yeah. The way that you would hang on to the ball longer is to either complete a bunch of passes. Like, there’s literally two ways to sustain long drives in the NFL. complete passes at a high rate, which they don’t and they might not until we fix some mechanics, or run the ball. Run the ball. Run, run, run. Didn’t the Bears have a 15play scoring drive where they ran the ball 11 times? Run, run, run. Yes. Yes. The Bear. Yes. And the Bears could have, by the way, run the ball more. Yeah. Like, this is the thing. I know you guys are all geniuses, okay? You’re all football geniuses. your savants when it comes to calling plays. You coaches, you’re unbelievable. But yeah, the little Exactly right. That guy with two legs who with the ball, they give it to him. Run the ball. Okay. All right. Who wins and who covers here in just a moment. Uh but underdog is a great place to Yeah. Yeah. Spend your football weekend. Absolutely. Go download the underdog app in the App Store and the Google Play Store. You can sign up promo code score. Uh get the pick them action on. uh ride higher or lower on so many different categories. You can do crossport entries, too. So, maybe if you want to dabble in a football Sunday and a basketball Sunday, you can do the same thing there on Underdog. Sign up with promo code score. Send me those screenshots, too. I love seeing our audience win up to 25 times their money and even more, which is sweet. So, extra cash in your pocket, especially with the holiday season coming up. So, go download the underdog app and sign up with promo code score. One of the biggest benefits uh for me the last three months of uh of being at Gameday Men’s Health, three locations in the Twin Cities, Edina, Minnotonka, Roseville. My sleep scores, I started tracking sleep scores. I’ve just got like a watch that I wear uh that tracks steps and sleep scores every night going back probably seven years. the last three months, the best sleep scores I’ve had, if I got I don’t know, this is a Fitbit, so I don’t know how it translates with other ones, but if I get usually like an 80 sleep score, that’s a huge win for me, but sometimes if I don’t get enough sleep or maybe I had a cocktail the night before or something, I can get sleep scores in the 60s, like low 60s. My low sleep scores the last 3 months are 77,78 up to 90. And I give credit to Gameday Men’s Health for helping me increase energy, decrease mental fog, and help with my sleep scores. Uh, whatever it is that you are looking to reclaim in your life as a guy. Um, Gameday Men’s Health can help you. Testosterone replacement therapy, weight loss solutions, treatment for ED, peptides. They’ll do advanced lab work beyond what your primary may do. So, uh, check them out either in person at one of the three locations or online at gamedaymenealth.com/purpely. If you mention Purple Daily, you get a free vitamin shot at your first visit in addition to your free tea test consultation. gamedaymensalth.com/purpely. All right. Vikings are 6 and 12 point dogs. All of us are 4 and6 just like the Vikings picking Vikings games straight up this year. Against the spread, you guys are both four and six. I’m only five and five, so none of us are profitable. But, uh, Jeb, we’ll start with you. Vikings 6 and a half point dogs. Who wins and by how many? You know what I was going to say? Packers win, Packers cover, but then you gave me the stat that the Packers what have failed to cover all all season long, basically. I mean, that’s Yeah, that’s uh that’s a very interesting trend. So, I’m going to say Packers win uh but they don’t cover. Okay, we’ll thread that needle there. Yeah, that’s a very um that’s a really intriguing intriguing statistic. Yeah, when they Yeah, they’re I think they’re over for when they are four point favorites or more. Co covering the spread. Yep. Covering the spread. They’ll continue. I had the Vikings winning this game. I feel like this is the classic get right situation for Minnesota sports. I just I I really do. Uh if wi with us thinking that this season is completely shot and over. Um regard like regardless even if I picked the Packers to win this game, I don’t think they would have covered the six and a half. I I think that number is just far too big. The trends say they don’t. So I would have picked them not to cover regardless. But I also just think straight up you’re asking my feelings. Give me the Vikings to win this game, man. I I I think this this feels like a classic recipe of hooking us back in. We’ve been doing this. We’ve been doing Vent Line and on this show and Purple Daily for five plus years together. And over the course of a season, we’ve never really had at least in our five years of like continued bad Vikings seasons for long stretches of time, they’ll pop back up and hook us back in. And they’ve done that well more than the first five years of us doing this. So, it just screams to me a Vikings win in Lambo. I agree with Declan. I agree with Declan. I think the cover the cover feels like six and a half is a lot for a division game. the the perception of these teams, you know, the the Packers at one point were like trendy Super Bowl favorites a month month and a half ago and the Vikings have had this kind of disastrous year. So, the perception is wider than the reality. There is not a 6 and a half point gap in my opinion between these two teams. You could argue obviously if McCarthy continues to play the way that he had did against the Bears until the final drive that okay maybe there is a six and a half point gap but uh I I and Kevin Oonnell has kind of had Matt Laflur’s number in some ways some of the big leads that remember they had like a four touchdown lead they almost blew it but um last season and I think Flores is going to find ways to get pressure on Jordan Love and and maybe turn the ball over. So, I think this game gets weird for the Packers and it does feel like, well, everything’s moving in this direction, but in the NFL that means usually something else is going to happen. So, uh, call us homers, whatever you want. I got Don’t call me a homer. I’m picking the straight up. I’m I’m picking the Packers. You are. It’s true. So, let us know in the comments section who wins, what’s the final score, and we’ll see you right after Vikings Packers live on the Purple Daily YouTube channel for Vikings Vent Line tomorrow.

Minnesota Vikings-Green Bay Packers week! Will the Vikings get right against the Packersl Why turnovers likely won’t tell the story for either team; Can the Vikings pressure Jodan Love; Will Vikings QB JJ McCarthy bounce back; Plus, what are the betting markets saying about the Vikings-Packers matchup and more on Purple Daily.

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