FINALLY: The Green Bay Packers are finding success playing their best players!

FINALLY: The Green Bay Packers are finding success playing their best players!

The Green Bay Packers are finding success by just letting the good players play. You are Locked On Packers, your daily Green Bay Packers podcast, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. You were Locked On Packers, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Hey, I’m Peter Bukowski and I cover the Packers for the Leap, a newsletter I would love for you to subscribe to. Follow me on Twitter, peter_bukowski. Follow the podcast on Twitter, locked on Packers. Like us on Facebook. Subscribe to the podcast, iTunes, Spotify, Google. Wherever you find podcasts, you’ll find Locked On Packers, the number one Packers podcast on the internet and the show for fans who know what happened. They want to know why and how. Thanks to everyone who makes Locked on Packers their first listen every day. We hope you like starting your day with us as much as we like starting our day with you. Today’s episode brought to you by our friends at FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if that bet hits, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Sunday’s game against the Minnesota Vikings was an encapsulation of what it’s like when you just let your best players play. And this has been something that we have seen across this roster, whether it’s receiver rotations, whether it’s pass rush rotations, whether it’s trying to make fetch happen with certain players, it wasn’t so on Sunday. And and that was even with all of the issues, the injuries, the conservative approach because of the injuries, etc., etc. And the number that really drove this home for me when I looked at the snap counts was the receiver numbers because Christian Watson played 74% of snaps. He led all receivers. Romeo Dobs played 71% of snaps. That’s how this has to work. Now, if you look on the other side, Jordan played 98%. Justin Jefferson played 100%. But the Packers, I don’t know if you guys know this, they don’t have a Justin Jefferson level player on their team. So, it’s fine with me to have Christian Watson and Rome Doss play 75% of snaps. That seems like the right balance to me. Dantavian Wixs played 48%. Now, they didn’t play a ton of 11 personnel in this game, so that’s part of the issue here. Maybe when Jaden Reed comes back, that will change and this rotation will have to get a little gummier. But what you also see here is that the offensive line rotation with the sixth offensive lineman in there, Darian Canard played uh 32% of snaps played 21 snaps. Luke Musgrave played 25. In fact, he was the third tight end on this roster in terms of snap count. He is not a plus blocker. So having him out there in 11 personnel with three receivers on the field doesn’t make sense because he can’t contribute positively to the run game, but put him out there in two tight end sets where you have a blocker and the blocker can block and then Luke Musgrave can go do the thing. Or put him out there in six offensive lineman sets and now you have the offensive lineman as the blocker and now you really have something. And we’ll we’ll talk more about the six offensive lineman sets in a minute, but that to me is not a compromise. Rather than having Luke Musgrave just try and be Tucker Craft, which doesn’t make sense, you account for the blocking with an offensive lineman, and you account for the receiving by putting Luke Musgrave in a position where he can only contribute. That’s like the only place he can contribute. So for the Packers, that’s a plus. That’s Matt Laflur putting putting his players in the best position to succeed. That’s why they had Anthony Belton out there, too. Jordan Morgan, look, he might become a really good left tackle, might become a, you know, better than Rasheed Walker level left tackle, but he’s probably not the best right guard on this team. the fact that they were willing to do that with Anthony Beltton. And this is something that, you know, I I struggle with the rotation stuff at times and and our guy Jeff Jagazinski over on our squad show, he talks about this, former offensive line coach. He’s like, you know, the rotation stuff is is tough for me. Like he wouldn’t be for that. But this is a great example of you had to try something or you were willing to try something. Not every coach would try something. And so if I’m going to criticize Adam Stenovich or Matt Lafleur for some of these things, they deserve credit for being willing to take a risk and say, “Let’s just see what this looks like.” The Vikings invested a lot of a lot of capital into this defensive tackle group. They do a lot of crazy stuff with their blitzers up the middle of the offensive line. And so to to throw Anthony Balton out there in a position he’s never played, that was a ballsy move that paid off. And he might just be the starting right guard moving forward. When you look at the the snap counts, like he way out snapped Jordan Morgan. Jordan Morgan played 21 snaps. It was really like two drives in this game. Again, I’d like to see, you know, Morgan potentially get worked in as a left tackle, but we’ll see if that’s something that they’re willing to do. But they weren’t willing to just say this is good enough. That good enough is in fact good enough. Now this will be put to the test when Nate Hobbs ends up getting healthy. But the way Carrington Valentine has played, he played every single rep. Every single rep. And then Keshan Nixon goes out with injury. Khan Nixon might not be ready for Thursday. It might be Kamal Haden who played really well, really physically, acquitted himself more than nicely. I thought he he impressed Matt Laflur said no player or he has improved as much as any player that they have and and Jeff Hapley said he’s been so good had and has been in practice that they were looking for ways to get him on the field. Well, here’s your opportunity. I told you I thought Rashan Gary was definitely going to be above 70% of the reps. 73%. And look, I had this conversation with with a with a friend of mine the other day that, you know, look, fans, I think that asking tough questions of coaches or raising things in the media will affect the way players play. And I do think that is a thing. Certainly in other markets, fan sentiment can add pressure. Am I really gonna going to believe that it’s a coincidence that the week that we had multiple conversations on this show, it was a big talking point on social media that Matt Laflur was asked about it that it’s a coincidence that all of a sudden Rashan Garry’s back to playing 70% of snaps and oh by the way the pass rush had its best game since September. That doesn’t seem like a coincidence to me. Let your best players play. And if you want to tell me this was a rotation because uh you know they want him fresh for December January. Okay. But that’s not by the way not not what Matt Lafler said. So I would I would probably say that’s probably not true. The Packers have been experimenting taking Javon Bullard off the field or excuse me taking Evan Williams off the field letting Javon Bullard play some safety. That hasn’t gone great. So Evan Williams in this game plays 100% of snaps. I think Javon Bullard has grown into a very useful player. He’s become a quality starter for this team. He only played 55% of snaps. Now, part of that is they played a ton of base. Didn’t play a lot of nickel. There are going to be games, I don’t think this is this week is one of them, but there are going to be games the the Bear game might be one of them where you’re going to see more receivers on the field. You’re going to need someone like Javon Bullard. And you know, it’s crazy to think, but like Carl Brooks has has fallen off the map. Warren Brinson played really well in this game. They rode the hot hand. He played 21 snaps. Carl Brooks only played four. Warren Brinson led the team in pressures in a game where Micah Parsons had two sacks. Worm Brinson led the team in pressures according to Pro Football Focus. Let the best players play. And again, this is going to get convoluted when Matthew Golden comes back from injury, a different injury. Now, he’s listed with a with a upper body injury versus the shoulder injury, you know, a wrist injury. Maybe he’s over the shoulder, maybe he’s not. I don’t know. So, Matt Laflur is going to have to figure this out a little bit more. It’s going to be a little bit more complicated. When you don’t have Matthew Golden, you don’t have Jaden Reed, it becomes easier to play your best players. When you don’t have Nate Hobbs, it becomes easier to just say, “Well, these are the guys I trust. But Rashan Garry, Anthony Beltton, these other examples are are evidence of a team saying we just have to ride these players. We have to we have to trust the the best players on our team and and go from there. Now, I want to dig more into this six offensive lineman thing because it’s working. We’ll talk about it next on Locked on Packers. The NBA is back and there’s no better place to get in on the action than at FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Don’t ask about the Bucks right now with Giannis Hurt. Even if you missed the start of the game or want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who’s going to score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your bets into a same game parlay for a shot at bigger payouts. It keeps every game exciting, especially with your team making that late push. the Packers underdogs heading into Detroit. So potentially an opportunity here. If you don’t trust the Lions or you just want to bet the Packers, here’s your chance. You’re going to get nice odds. You’re going to get nice plus odds on the money line. All that good stuff. Right now, FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets. If your first $5 bet or more wins, head to fanduel.com to sign up and play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. So, Darien Canard plays 21 snaps on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings, and this was a continuation of what we saw against the New York Giants. There’s a there’s a nice theory there, right? We talked about it at the open. Can you get the blocking? Probably better blocking from someone like Darian Canard than you would get from a tight end. And you’re not losing anything because chances are uh you’re not going to throw the ball to Josh Wy or to um John Fitzpatrick. Maybe you throw the ball to Luke Musgrave, but he’s not a yards after catch guy anyway. So, like you’re trading better protection and the chance to get the ball down the field for the two to six yards or so that you’re getting from a backup tight end. Also, the Packers were willing to play some snaps. They played two snaps according to our pal Dusty Eively who charted all of this with two tight ends and six offensive linemen. And guess what? A 100% success rate on those plays. It worked. By far their best success rate of the game was when they played with six offensive linemen. They played 17 snaps with six offensive linemen and just one tight end. So it becomes basically big 12 personnel, big two tight end sets. They averaged almost six yards per play and they had a nearly 59% success rate. Just to put that into perspective, out of 11 personnel, they had a 40% success rate. And out of traditional 12 personnel, it was 43 1.5%. I don’t want to overload you with all the numbers, but 59% success rate in any personnel grouping that you’re playing at volume is really, really good. This works and it’s working against a team that’s run defense is fine. It’s fine. Now, this week, you go up against the Detroit Lions team who they’ve got defensive tackles along the interior. They’ve got linebackers that want to come downhill. Well, okay. You give yourself a better chance to run the ball out of these heavy sets because it’s an offensive lineman instead of a tight end and you don’t have like even with Tucker Craft. Tucker Craft is not going to be as effective against the defensive end or a linebacker as Darren Canard. You lose the Tucker Craft’s catch ability, but maybe you gain a little bit in pass protection. Maybe you if you’re gaining enough in the run game in the aggregate, you can get something approximating Tucker Craft’s value in all of this. And what the Packers have been able to do is, okay, you run the ball. You want to get into your two high shells. You run the ball. Run the ball. Run them out of those two high shells. And then when they start getting a little worried about it, when those safeties start crashing, that’s when you hit them with the play action. They Christian Watson on the over. They did that against the Giants as well. The Packers love to use that little insert play. They motion the receiver in. They say, “Hey, you block that guy. He’s going to insert block through the C gap.” And instead of blocking, he runs a little crosser. They’ve also done it. So they they actually run the corner. So it’s a counter like, “Oh, they’re ready for that insert. Here’s the play action into the cross.” You could do that from any personnel grouping you wanted to. Frankly, you wouldn’t have to do it from a heavy personnel. But when you get into heavy, now the guys having to make those decisions are linebackers because you force defenses to account for your linebackers or for your offensive lineman being on the field because you can’t play nickel against six offensive linemen. Like teams may start saying to the Packers, hey, you want to run the ball, knock yourself out. But even on that drive where the Packers ran the ball seven straight times, that drive started with three chunk runs. So, you can’t you can’t live as a as a defense giving up 10, 11, 12 yard runs. You look at what the Lions gave up on Sunday. They give up explosive after explosive to the New York Giants. If if I’m the Packers looking at that, I’m going, “Hey, we got an opportunity here. We got an opportunity to attack this team down the field.” And so if they’re going to blitz, if they’re going to try and attack like Brian Flores did, Brian Flores sent five or more bodies on 20 of 24 dropbacks from Jordan Love. Now, part of that is they play a penny front a lot of the time. They’re going to play five down. So, they’re going to try and get a fiveman surface. This is what Joe Barry like a couple years ago it was the Joe Barry he had a he had a blitz rate heavy scare quotes that was high but it was because he would play a fiveman front and then bring everybody it’s not like I think that’s disingenuous to call that a blitz though technically it’s true it’s you’re bringing an extra body still you got to protect five against five and when you have good pass rushers and by the way the Lions do so if they’re going to bring five you’re going to have Aiden Hutchinson at the very least out there. Marcus Davenport seems like he’s he’s healthy, trending in the right direction. We’ll see. You know, you never know with him, unfortunately for him. Kelvin Shepard has been extremely aggressive. All right, you want to blitz. The Packers watted up the protection in week one. They had answers for everything. Now, Kelvin Joseph is going to have answers for that. He’s going to have punches, counter punches. Matt Laflur is going to have to be ready. But this is one of those things you can you can do all the exotic stuff you want to do. But if the offense can just come downhill and displace you, it kind of doesn’t matter. Like do all the funky stuff you want to do. You want to disguise coverages. You want to play physically. Okay, great. Here’s six offensive linemen. Come handle that. Here’s a double team on Aiden Hutchinson with two offensive linemen. Or you just run away from him. you load the other side and say, “Aidan, come come chase down the play. Let’s see how it goes.” A 59% success rate on 20 plus reps or I guess what was it? 17 reps, 27% of reps. That’s not some like small sample size theater. That’s real. again against a defense that also disguises the hell out of their looks and wants to bring pressure and wants to play with extra bodies in the run game. Now, you can’t have the mistakes. The Packers had a couple missed assignments. Those third and short runs, the third and three play missed assignment. They had a third and one play missed assignment. Matt Lafleur talked about that after the game. You have offensive linemen that are just missing who they’re supposed to block. Not not, oh, I tried to block him and missed him. Oh, I was supposed to block the linebacker and I block the defensive tackle instead. Those sorts of things can happen. But at the same time, when you do block those correctly, you theoretically should have the advantage. And I think it’s something we’re going to see the Packers continue to lean on here down the stretch, especially against these teams that that can’t control the line of scrimmage. like against the Chicago Bears who the Packers play twice down the stretch here. That front is you you can you can win at the line of scrimmage. The Pittsburgh Steelers manhandled them at the line of scrimmage. Manhandled them at the line of scrimmage by playing big. You’re going to see the Pack I’m telling you right now, the Packers are going to win both those Bears games by 10 plus points. That Bears game, that Bears team is so fake. And we’re going to talk about some of the underlying metric stuff here in a second, but this Packers team, you can have an identity of being a a chasing explosive team and still play with six offensive linemen. The the Bills do it. The Eagles do it. So, this is this is a terrific wrinkle from Matt Laflur. For as much as I have criticized the play calling, look, Baker Mayfield separated his left shoulder and was in a sling after the game. They don’t even know if he’s going to play this week. There was never a question if Jordan Love is going to play. So, a lot of like taking the air out of the ball makes a little bit more sense in retrospect in all this. Well, if you’re going to try and take the air out of the ball against the Detroit Lions, by the way, they can create more explosive runs than you can because Marshon Lloyd’s not going to play in this game. And we’ll see if Josh Jacobs does. Even if he does, he’s not an explosive runner. Emanuel Wilson is a good runner. He’s got some juice, but he’s not going to rip off an 80 yard touchdown run like Jamir Gibbs. So, you got to be efficient. If you want to live in this efficiency world, then you got to be able to get four, five, six yards a run. Well, the six offensive linemen, that gives you an opportunity to do that. The Packers find themselves in the thick of an absolutely brutal NFC North race, NFC conference race. But what’s real and what’s not in all of that? We’ll talk about it next on Locked On Packers. I’m Cody Ror from Lockdown Broncos and this episode is brought to you by Pelaton. Pelaton is shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Pelaton crossraining tread plus powered by Pelaton IQ. This is Pelaton’s most advanced equipment yet, giving you realtime guidance and endless ways to move. Whether you’re running, lifting, or you’re crossing with your favorite instructors like Alex Tousant. It’s training re-imagined to make your workout more personal. Pelaton is built for breakthroughs. With features that help you plan, stay motivated, and hit peak performance. You can let yourself run, lift, flex, and go. While Pelaton handles all the rest. Plus, Pelaton IQ provides real time strength coaching, tracking your progress and suggesting weights that challenge you so you can get stronger. Plus, the new movement tracking camera. It counts your reps and corrects your form in real time, making sure every rep is safer and smarter. So, let yourself run, lift, flex, push, and go. Explore the new Pelaton crossraining tread plus at oneplaton.com. Thanks for making Locked On Packers your first listen every day. The NFL season is rolling now. For your second listen, go get a double dose of the Locked On NFL podcast. Part of the Locked On podcast network, the number one sports podcast network. Tyler the madman rolling gives you a shot of espresso to start your day while Tony Wiggins takes you into the barber shop for the smoothest breakdowns to end the day. find locked on NFL on YouTube or wherever you get podcasts. I apparently have to have this argument with NFC North fans every year. And it’s it’s funny to me that, you know, I get accused of cherrypicking statistics when I talk about the same statistics every year. Like I care about DVOA every year. I care about EPA Play every year. Or at least I have for a while. I was a I was kind of a I wouldn’t say I was a latecomer to EPA, but I was it took me it took me a second to get there on that. The underlying metrics, say the Green Bay Packers are a really really good team. Some some something like the top six or eight team in the NFL. Now, the problem for the Packers is they’re looking up in the standings at the Rams, the Seahawks, and the Lions. And when it comes to DVOA, they’ve got a chance to change that on Thursday. But take a team like the Bears who have a negative point differential this season and by DVOA are one of the worst eight- win teams in NFL history. And Bears fans can say, “Oh, well, we just know how to win. We’ve got the Iceman, which is apparently a thing they’re calling Caleb Williams, which is just I cringe. Cringe. Oh my god.” But guess what? That’s not a thing. We had the same conversation in 2022 with or 2020. Yeah, 2022. They all run together with with the Vikings. That team was fake as hell and the Packers beat the crap out of them at Lambeau Field and then they got beat by a pretty mediocre Giants team in the playoffs because that team was fake. Last year, the Vikings were not a 14- win team. They were not as stake as 2022, but they were not a 14- win team. And guess what happened in the playoffs? They lost. Now, at a certain point, you bank a number a certain number of wins, winning these games, you know, from the deep pulling them out of the deep recesses of your rectum. Okay, you get to the playoffs, you give yourself a chance. So, you bank those wins. You know, the Bears are probably going to make the playoffs now. Although you look at some of the models, like I think the athletic model gives them less than a 50-50 chance to make the playoffs now. That’s because their schedule to close is ridiculous. And the rest of the NFC is a is a bloodbath. Like the 49ers, the Rams, the Seahawks, they all are probably going to get to 10 plus wins. The Packers and the Lions are going to get to 10 plus wins. We’ll see what happens in the NFC East. the Cowboys like look they’re going to that that would be uh you know a crazy thing but if the Bears are the seven seed the two seed’s not going to want to see that team even if I think they’re they’re fraudulent they’re fake that defense is way too reliant on turnovers that that offense is way too reliant on explosive plays which is the number one reason why I think the Packers will beat them convincingly both times because they just the Packers are the best explosive play defense in the NFL and you’re just not going to get those explosive plays against the Packers. You’re just not. So, 17 points, is that going to be enough to beat Green Bay against that defense? I don’t I don’t think so. I don’t think so. I think the Packers are going to be able to score on them because they don’t turn the ball over. But at a certain point, again, it doesn’t matter. You You get in and you give yourself a chance and and in a oneame playoff, anything can happen. So, are the Bears fake? Yes. But if they get to 10 wins, it kind of doesn’t matter because they’re going to get an opportunity. Do you think the Packers are the sixth or seventh or eighth best team in the NFL right now? Which is what they said according to DVU. I remember they were a top four, five team last year for most of the season. Did it feel like that? No, it didn’t. I kept I kept telling you they’re really good. They’re really close. They’re going to put it together. And they they never did. By the way, it doesn’t mean I was wrong. It just means that in those one game sample sizes they were they were flawed enough and and remember all the injuries all that stuff and they they lost to a team that turns out was an absolute wagon and won the Super Bowl this Packers team despite the fact that I mean what have they grade their season grade their season B minus given expectations given the talent on this team given what we know they’re capable of doing given how well we’ve we’ve seen them play at times and yet the underlying metrics say this is a really really really good team. So who’s going to be right? Well, until they play the games, we’re not going to know. But but we know what the underlying metrics say. And to me, those are just much better predictions. Like the the whole you are what your record says you are is the biggest lie ever told in sports. records lie all the time, especially in short sample size seasons. Like 17 games, that’s that’s more than, you know, in college football, but it’s not 82. It’s not 162. It’s not, you know, seven game series. It’s a oneame playoff. On the other hand, only one team in modern NFL history has made the has has won a Super Bowl with a negative point differential in the regular season. It was the New York Giants in 2007. One of the alltime Cinderella stories in sports. So like the Bears probably not going to do that, but they’re giving themselves a chance. The Packers have the chance to prevent that from happening. And by the way, they have a chance to prove their Super Bowl worthiness on Thursday. like by the odds, by the metrics, by the the betting markets, the Packers are one of the best teams in in the NFC, but there there’s they have not proven that they can be trusted the way that the Rams have, for example. Now, Packers, Seahawks on a neutral field, I’m picking the Packers like eight times out of 10, assuming relative health. Packers against the Lions. It’s a little It’s a little closer, but like I think six or seven times out of 10 on a neutral field, I’m going to pick the Packers. The Packers are better. I think they’re more consistent. I think the flaws for the Lions are more glaring. I think the Packers defense is better. The Packers quarterback is better. I think the Packers play caller is better. But they’ve got to go win these games, beat the Lions, and it will, I think, remove a lot of doubts that this team is capable of winning the Super Bowl. Go into Detroit, beat that team again, sweep them as at as it has been from time in memorial for the Packers. You give yourself now the inside track of the division because you play the Bears twice and you prove the metrics in a lot of ways, right? The Packers are an elite team. Justice Mscada, our pal, who was recently on talking about Rich Baceia, he he keeps a running tally of um average net yards per attempt, which has become a really nice working heristic for the good teams. The top two teams are the Rams, the Seahawks in a clear tier on on their own, and then the Packers, and then another tier break. I don’t I don’t know if that’s like perfect, but I think that’s that’s pretty close to the way that I see the NFL right now. I don’t think there’s any team in the AFC that I would pick over the Packers, the Rams, or the Seahawks right now. Like the the Chiefs are way too up in the air. I don’t trust I don’t trust anybody in in in the AFC North. I don’t trust anybody in the AFC South. And how can you trust the Bills? I mean, given what we just saw from the Bills, how can you trust the Bills? So, this is the season to go grab it. This feels a little bit like 2021 where it feels wide open. If you’re the Packers, you hope it ends differently than 2021 did, of course, for obvious reasons. All right, back tomorrow. Proud Liy Zhao joins us for a Zhouan Wednesday. We’ll have our normal crossover Thursday with Matt Derry for your Thanksgiving pleasure. And um it’s going to be a fun one. We might get that out a little bit early, maybe late Wednesday night, um or even early Wednesday evening, just to make sure that you guys get that out and and have a chance to to consume it before the Thursday game. Um we’ll figure that out the timing wise as we move forward here. Um subscribe to the podcast wherever you get podcasts. We will have a squad show Wednesday night, seven Lambo time, as we get you ready for Packers Lions on Thanksgiving. And then of course, we’ll be live after the game. Just the postgame locked on Packers. No squad show, just the post locked on Packers for a half an hour live on YouTube. So go subscribe on YouTube so you can stay locked on Packers.

It may seem simple, and it is: against the Minnesota Vikings, the Green Bay Packers focused on getting their best players on the field, and it worked! Plus, the six offensive linemen experiment is here to stay as a replacement for Tucker Kraft.

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Peter Bukowski, co-founder of The Leap, brings you a daily look at the Green Bay Packers year round with Locked On Packers! Go beyond the latest injury news into what you’re seeing on the field, how it works, and how it might change with new players or against a division rival. It’s the podcast for fans who know what happened, they want to know why and how!

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