Bat-Missing CRISIS: Why Cleveland Guardians Struggle to DEVELOP Impact Hitters In Modern MLB Era

Bat-Missing CRISIS: Why Cleveland Guardians Struggle to DEVELOP Impact Hitters In Modern MLB Era

The Cleveland Guardians can’t find bats. Well, today I’m going to crack the code and tell you exactly where it is they’ve been hiding. [Music] You are Locked On Guardian, your daily podcast on the Cleveland Guardians, part of the Locked On Network, your team every day. Hello, I’m Jeff Ellis and welcome to Locked On Guardians, part of the Locked On podcast network, now the number one sports podcast network. Welcome to a solo show. Fingers crossed about the tech. We’ll see. Hopefully this goes well. Uh please let me know how it is looking below in your comments. Uh on today’s want to take a moment and say thank you for joining us here on the show today. Uh for those who do not know this show, Lockdown Guardians, we’re the only daily podcast that covers your Cleveland Guardians from the majors to the minors and everything in between. I am Jeff Ellis, your host here, as I have been since locked on started talking about baseball. Before that, I was a national writer at Scout in 247 focused on prospects in the draft. I want to take a moment and say that today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you’ll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download the app today. I want to thank you for making today’s episode your first listen today and every day wherever it is podcast as well as a big shout out to all of our everydayers. Uh shout out to everyday Scott Howser who inspired the 2016 draft section for segment three. On today’s show we’re going to talk about where it is. Where can we find impact bats? Cleveland can’t sign them in free agency and they seem to not draft or develop them very rarely. So where are they? How do they find them? Well, I dug deep after that. I haven’t had a chance to talk transactions. guys I would like to see Cleveland at least talk about this off seasonason. So, I’m going to talk about two names. Some trade talk Tuesday instead of Thursday on the show today. And lastly, 2016. We’re going to take a look at a draft that is one of the better ones in the last 20 years for the Cleveland Guardians and probably one of their top five drafts in the history of the organization. Now, let’s dive into a very awkward transition. I apologize there. Let’s dive into the meat of the show today. Let’s talk about everyone screams for hitters. Everyone screams for right-handed hitters. Even though all the time on the show we try to explain it is a stadium that is built for left-handed hitters. You do need balance. Don’t get me wrong. It is nice to have uh hitters who can hit lefties. But here’s the problem. I’m just going to before I dive into anything else, again, 80 plus% of your uh at bats plate appearances are against right-handed pitching. You have a stadium that’s built for left-handed hitters. You just want a left-handed hitter who can hit anything. It doesn’t really matter. This whole focus on right-handed power. Now, I’m going to talk about right-handed hitter later in the show today. It’s it’s not necessarily the biggest need. They just need hitters. It doesn’t matter if they’re right-handed, left-handed, switch, you know, whatever. Just they need hitters. Full stop. And Cleveland’s mining league system hasn’t produced many of those. We can be really honest about that. They’ve had their struggles. And they’ve also, you know, the question is development versus scouting. But then there’s also the guys like Ernie Clement who left and performed well. Junior Camro, who they traded when he was, you know, too young. Yandi Diaz, who never got an opportunity consistently here, who had some good performances the year they traded him away. Uh, you know, talk Anthony Santandere. We can talk about all of these hitters all around the league. you know, Josh Naylor, they never get enough credit for developing Josh Naylor, who was a, you know, a part-time up and down guy before he got to Cleveland. So, they’re not quite as abyss. Let’s let’s ignore look past the fact that as an organization, yes, I’m not going to sit here and say they’re a top or no, that’s that’s just not the case. They have struggled. This is not a strength of them. Uh they’re also not the worst at it, but I would say I would hazard a guess if we looked at the data. They are definitely bottom five, bottom 10 overall. So what can Cleveland do to develop hitters? And I just decided to be me and to get some data, tear it apart, look into it, and try to figure out exactly where do you find impact hitters? So I went back from uh 2025 to 2021, and I looked at every hitter. First, I was like, “Oh, let’s take top 50.” And I realized that’s that’s too variable. I looked at every hitter who had a 120 W wrc plus or greater. For those who maybe this is your first show, first episode. That 120 means that they are 20% better in league average. WRC plus takes all of your offensive data, boils it down into a nice number. 100 is league average. 110 10% better. 120 20% better. 90 10% worse. You get the drift. You’re smart people. I know you can handle it. So I looked at those numbers and you know when I was going through I wanted to figure out exactly so since 2021 the 2021 season there’s been 248 hitter seasons where qualifying players had 500 plate appearances and a 120 WRC plus or greater. The most interesting thing is the shift overall in data because if we look at it just over those years, it comes out to 36% college hitters, 31% high school hitters, 37% international. Now, I say it’s interesting because if you go back to 2021, that year it was 57% college hitters and then we’ve seen and then it was 39% in 2022 and if we just looked at the last three years, 20% 30% 28%. College hitters have fallen off quite a bit. I think some of that is some of those players aging out and teams have gotten better than ever at high school talent, less great high school talent. There’s so much data out there right now. It’s harder for guys to fall through the cracks. There are guys, you know, like Rock Chalowski, who is the odds on favorite to be the number one overall pick next year, who choose to go to college, but in general, less great college talent is getting there. Uh high school hitters were 26 and 27 those first two years jumped to 37 30 37. So high school hitters are we’re seeing some increased overall average but still on the whole are the lowest of the group and I think to me this is probably the most darning thing. The worst the international field has been on here is last year at 34%. They have been pretty solid between 34 twice and upwards of 42. Cleveland’s international. Yeah, they got Jose Ramirez, which is great. You know, Rokio, you’re hoping he’s gonna be league average, but they have taken an approach, and I don’t disagree with their approach. I don’t disagree with spreading the money around and getting a lot of lottery tickets. You’re talking about players as young as they’ve gotten from the international market. But the problem in general is that they just haven’t had much to show internationally at all. We’re going to talk about pitchers here in a second just to give a counterpoint, but like Cleveland going all hitters in the international market is a 100% the right approach. I think that they are definitely taking the right approach. We talked about on the show, you can go back and listen to our show from last Monday, I believe, where we talk about like what they need to do, maybe how to change the scouting. I think they need to take a few more swings on on tools and talent and see if they can develop those guys because the one problem I have always had when you take a safe hitter and this is in college this is even with a young kid is safe players aren’t really safe and I know that doesn’t make any sense but just follow with me. When you take a guy who’s got oh he’s he’s going to be fast moving he’s like a 50 55 across the board. If one thing goes wrong you’re not going to make it. If that hit tool is only a 40 guess what that’s a AAA player. that is not a major league player and that’s kind of one of the problems. They’ve taken safe hitters across the board without a lot of standout tools and that’s kind of gotten them to where they are. So what we’re seeing recently is a shift towards the international market and you know part of this is guys like Otani, right? Like he’s up there every year. Same way that Aaron Judge is up there for college guys every year and helps bring that aside up. But we are seeing high school players and international players become a bigger part of the pie. And I think going forward I you know I’m king conservative so I don’t know if it’s going to be hard to change my draft board. Uh I always kind of like the safer talent. So but maybe I have to take this into account. Maybe we have to start looking at that college hitters are not necessarily uh the safe investment we thought they once were. Now the other side of it when we look at you know pitcher data is like 51%. So this is I went for um pitchers who had a FIP which is fielding independent uh pitching year. It’s the best indicator for future success. FIP of four or lower 160 total players 51% college. Uh 31% high school and just 19% international which is why again I’m sure Cleveland has done even deeper dives than I’ve done with this and they’ve seen that it’s like it’s that gamble. Sure, you can get a good international arm, but that data is also like booied by, you know, some of the Japanese players who’ve come over and been more accomplished. Guys like Darvish, guys like Otani, um blanking on the Y name pitcher for the Dodgers right now, and I don’t want to say the the wrong name. So, but you know what I’m talking about. That’s helped buying bring up those numbers. So, Cleveland 100% is right to just go all bats internationally hitting is what I see with this data. Um, you know, the prep data is still kind of scary, but here’s the thing. Prep arms retain trade value. So, Cleveland, we talked about that before on the show. I think there’s some value in that. But if you want to find a solid to ace level pitcher, you got to go college. So, it looks like college hitter, go all bats internationally. And I would argue still because high school hitters are still the lowest percentage over the last five years of those impact bats, a 31 compared to a 36 for college. I think you almost want to go 50/50 on those. You want to split your hitters amongst the college and high school ranks. I would have to dive into individual positions to give you more data there. Go allin internationally and then go heavy on college pitchers when available and then take the high school guys that have crazy upside. So you can potentially flip them for assets at the deadline because teams always like big hardth throwing arms. Everyone falls in love with a fast ball. So if you get a guy, you know, Alex Clem, great example. Big lefty throws hard. They’re able to use that as a trade asset. We’re going to come back from the break and I got two trade targets I want to talk about. I don’t know if either of them are plausible, but I think they are fun and Cleveland certainly needs to upgrade this outfield. The NBA is back and there’s no better time to get on the action with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. I sometimes feel like someone should tell the Cavs that the NBA is back. Um, it feels that way sometimes, right? That they are sleepwalking a bit early in this season. And even if you miss the start of the game and want to ride the hot hand, FanDuel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay. First shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team’s making that late push. I would not recommend betting on the Cavs right now. I feel like same thing. Blue Jackets lost again tonight. I my you know, can you if you can bet on them having like a negative goal differential in the third period, go for that. Go hard on that one right now because if you follow that team at all, you know that the third period is an area where the Blue Jackets just die. Uh, right now FanDuel is giving new customers $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet win. So head to fanduel.com to sign up. Play your game with FanDuel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Thank you all for coming back, for joining us, for making us your first listen on the number one sports podcasting network. So as promised, I wanted to talk some trade talk. I missed trade I I’m not haven’t been here on uh trade talk Thursday last week. Uh we had the great Jeff Pon on so I didn’t have an opportunity to discuss that then. And then Justin, you know, he talked about Tyler O’Neal who’s been one of my guys. You can go back. Uh you can’t because the scout data boards don’t exist. Uh when he was a guy in the Mariners system, I was a big fan. Had a lot of debates about Tyler O’Neal with my buddy Taylor Blake Ward. Uh you know, who covers the Angels. He was not so much a fan. And I’m going to talk about another guy who I’ve been on for many, many a year here. And if you are a longtime listener of the show, you know, if you’re a recent listener, you might be surprised by this because you’ve heard me basically throw cold water on every international free agent over the last few years. And that’s because I don’t I’m looking for a really clean profile. If you’re going to commit to a player, I want to see a a clean profile. You know, there’s been too many guys like Yoshida with the Red Sox where it’s like gh that that’s an anchor contract. There’s, you know, uh the center fielder with the Giants. I’m not sure that’s a good contract. I’m leerary about both of the imports this year. And but there’s one guy that I I banged the drum for that I went out and talked about. That say Suzuki has been with the Cubs for the last three years. When he was coming over, I looked at that profile. I go, he’s going to it’s going to work. That is a profile that transitions well and I don’t know if the Cubs are in interested in trading say a Suzuki but and this is the big butt of this whole situation you know if they want to play Owen Cassie their young outfielder and they also maybe want to go out in free agency I I I think Kyle Tucker is gone. I I don’t think they’re going to be in on Kyle Tucker, but if they maybe want to try to get, you know, a Schwarber back in town who’s gonna, you know, DH, if they’re going to maybe try to go out and get one of the lesser bats, there’s there’s not much in that outfield free agent market. I I don’t think you’re going to see him chase Cody Bellinger again. But, you know, if they are looking for other ways, because right now you have Pico Armstrong set in center field. Ian Hap has that long-term contract in left field. Sea Suzuki’s initial contract, he’s got two years left. He’s in a Steven Quan situation. He makes 17 million a year and he wasn’t very happy that they mostly played him as a DH a year ago. And frankly, going to his Savant Page, you know, he had uh, you know, over 100 games at DH, but his his arm strength was actually pretty solid. His range was okay. Like he was not that bad of a defender. He runs pretty well. His Savant Page is all red. He just doesn’t square up. He can K. He can whiff, but he doesn’t chase, but he hits the ball hard. party. It’s with authority. And for all of my talk earlier in the show, for people who are focused on this, he is right-handed. If you’re like, well, isn’t Chicago a nice place for, you know, hitters, maybe he wouldn’t translate to Cleveland. He’s had a higher WRC plus, which I already explained, uh, on the road than at home. So, Suzuki is 31. He’ll be 32 next August. So, you’re getting him for his age 31 and 32 seasons. And then you could end up if you decide to like hold on to guys till they walk, you could end up with Quan and Suzuki walking at the same time. You’re hoping by then that a young guy would step up and step in so you could have, you know, players ready to go or she could maybe flip one of them. But hey, um I’ve talked about before there’s worse things than having a year where you get multiple first round picks and you can kind of own and dictate the draft. Like if Quan and Suzuki are both good enough and you trade for them and they both walk at the same time, for all the negativity of losing two players and not trading them for assets, if you give them the qualifying offer and they sign other places, getting those first rounders becomes multiplicative. It’s like an exponential value because of the amount of money and how you can get players to drop to on the board. But that’s far in the future. That’s that’s we don’t even have to worry about that. That’s just me for giving me a chance to talk about something I wanted to talk about. Uh more importantly with this, he is a player that has three years with that WRC plus over 120. Uh 127, 137, 123. His first year was a 118. That’s his worst year. He has been an offensive force who does a bit of everything. He’s been good. Last year he hit 32 home runs, which is part of the reason. I’m like, I don’t know if Chicago would be willing to talk about him. And he also last year did it with one of the lower bat hips of his career. He’s always had a pretty high bip. So, one could argue that like, yeah, his WRC plus was lower because his batting average was 40 points lower, but his BAP hip, which is batting average of balls in play, 300 is about average. People can run a little higher with that. Uh, he’s been 330 for his career, and he was at 282 last year. So, you could argue that he’s in, you know, in a position to maybe even play even better in a year, have better offensive numbers. So, in an ideal world, the way you get him is because the Cubs somehow belly to the bar and keep Kyle Tucker. I don’t think that’s going to happen. But then that would cause them to definitely want to shed that contract, shed that money, and you could probably maybe flip and that becomes a question. It’s like you’re going to have to flip, I would think, you know, a Messi, a Cantillo, and and it’s got to be a significant and. That’s part of the problem, right? you know, they they desperately need relief help. The problem is you don’t have a you know, a you can’t offer Cade Smith. You just can’t. You got to keep him. Um especially where he is. It’s like they just went out and paid money for Phil Maidon, someone Justin had talked about. Um but it’s like what, you know, is Hunter Gatis I I just feel like Hunter Gatis and Parker Messik. Is that enough? Is it not enough? I’m terrible at trades. I don’t know. Let me know what you think about say Suzuki. Let me know what you think a trade would look like. I don’t I I have a really hard time. I I feel like with Meth Messics’s control, he’s probably the third most valuable pitcher right now. It’s like, are you willing to do even Gatis is really hard to trade with their bullpen in the state? It is, but it’s like, you know, an upside bet for both sides, you know, it’ be interesting with something like Walters and and Messi. Does that get you there? I don’t know. Cubs fans would have to let me know. They’ll probably tell me no. and Cleveland fans will probably also tell me no. But, you know, if there’s a situation where the were they at an outfielder, all of a sudden, Suzuki, I think, is definitely a player who’s in play. And I think the only question is would he approve a trade to Cleveland. I believe he has a no trade. Cleveland’s a cold weather place. It’s not a big city. It’s not always a place want to go to. So, it could be Nolan Void right there. Uh, the other player, even more unlikely, but I think someone you have to talk about, uh, if you’re going to sell the farm for a guy, I think you got to take a look at Tyler Sodestrom, who has four years of team control left. And these last two years, last year in 61 games and this year in 158 games. Uh, you know, he’s again, I know people like again bad stadium, but he hit well on the road. 125 WRC plus he had 25 home runs. that that was probably helped where he played. Uh look, you know, son of a big leager who was a first round pick, was a catcher when he was drafted. Most people thought he moved the outfield. He’s moved there. A lot of good under the hood data, but this is the type of guy you want to target overall and it’s because he’s got the two good years of performance. He has multiple years of control. If you’re going to pay a heavy cost, you know, if you’re going to pay something that ends up being again like a Messi plus a top prospect, this is the type of guy I want to go after. Four years of control, you can plug, play, and forget about. Provides that power you need. I I don’t even know if he’d be on the block. The one thing you say with Oakland in general is, you know, Denzel Clark, uh, cousin of the Nailers, looks like he’s going to be their center fielder. He’s going to be a Mile Straw type, I think, for them. There’s going to be some offensive issues, but the defense is fantastic. They already have Lawrence Butler who they have that great contract with who’s already one of those outfield spots. You know, they’ve got Rooker is tied to DH. You’ve got catcher on first base taken care of. Um they’ve got short stop taken care of. So it’s like they can afford to maybe shift one bat if it helps him get an AR. Just a name to look at a guide consider send me if I’m insane. If those are not good trade targets, tell me if what you think those trades should look like. Um, those are just the two guys when I was going through the data and looking at, hey, who’s got 25 home runs last year? Who stood out to me? Those two guys. If Cleveland goes all in, those are the guys I’d like to see him chase this year. Let me know what you think. We’re going to come back in a moment, talk about the 2016 draft. One of the worst ones in terms of the first round, but still one that ended up having some really interesting talent. on today’s lockdown guardians. Thank you for tuning in and being with me today on this solo show. We talked targets. We talked where you can find hitters if you’re not going to trade for them. So, you know, how are you going to find hitters? And then if you’re not finding them, some guys you could trade for. Now, let’s look at one of the drafts where they tried to add hitters and it didn’t work out. Um, this was a draft. Gosh, I, you know, somewhere buried or lost, unfortunately, because, uh, Scout deleted all of its stuff when they got rid of baseball. I’d be very curious to see what my shadow draft was for this particular draft class. Uh, looking back in time, it it probably wasn’t all that great because it just was not the strongest draft. Um, I was a little bit surprised back in the day when this draft happened when Cleveland took Will Benson with the 14th overall pick. I was a big Blake Rutherford fan. Shows what I know. Uh he ended up going to the Yankees at 18. I probably actually had Cleveland taking Rutherford and Jones with the top two picks, which is not great. I was a big Will Craig guy. He’s the player who taught me I need to pay more attention to the Cape. It is a bigger deal than you think. Was also interesting because you had two Ohio pitchers going in the first round of this class with Eric Lowour and TJ Zo Zuch. Um, so it was a really interesting draft to cover at the time, but it was one that we knew was not the strongest. Jay Groom for a long time was talked about as a potential, you know, 1-1 guy. He still hasn’t hit the big leagues. Uh, if you’re looking at how the 2016 draft has played out in the first round, Will Smith has blown away the field at a 23 uh, war. And then second highest war in this draft class in the first round, Calantrell is barely beating out Cole Raggins. Gavin Lux at four, Braxton Garrett at five, Eric Lowour at six. Figured I’d go that deep just because it’s interesting that we had one of those Ohio kids. Did it get any better in the second round? It did. So, this is where this draft got a lot better. Pete Alonzo, Brian Reynolds, Bo Bashette, Brandon Marsh, and then the fifth best guy, Lucas Ersig. Um, you know, who has started to turn it on as a reliever, which limits his value, but still has him there. Uh, seventh best, by the way, Nolan Jones in that round. And then you got to at least go three rounds deep. Those are often where he sees our best players because the third round was also a very strong one in this draft with Zack Allen, Shawn Murphy, uh, Jesus Lazardo, and Austin Hayes. Fifth best, Aaron Savali, by the way, just as a fun fact. So, this draft for Cleveland is the one that is known. And then I got to I have to bring up the fourth round because you do get two Sai Young winners with Shane Bieber and Corbin Burns. Interesting class where the first round is a bust and then it had just great depth throughout. Um this draft for Cleveland is known for the college pitchers. You know they took Zavali in the uh third round. You had Shane Bieber in the fourth. Kind of forgotten now. Zack Packac in the 12th and then you know they had some other guys. Raone Bergos made got a cup of coffee was a 16th rounder who got up there. Ryder Ryan was a guy they drafted multiple times in the who they got signed in the 30th round who uh they traded for um Jay Bruce that was the player who got to the big leagues. And then they had other guys Trenton Brooks made it to the big leagues with another organization. I think it was the Giants. I know he played up the Padres. Mad Taylor they traded away. He got to the big leagues. Connor Cable, another guy they traded away who got to the big leagues. Uh unfortunately for this class, Benson and Jones, neither of them quite lived up to it. You’re hope they’re still hoping Jones is going to figure it out. And Benson has just not had consistency because when you don’t have the hit tool, that’s just going to hold you back. And then, you know, like Andrew Landrip, I don’t even think he ever pitched in the miners, just kept getting hurt. And a lot of these other players, Ulyses Cantu, they gave a lot of money to, didn’t work out. Didn’t get very far. When you’re looking at this draft, beyond, you know, the fact that you have the college pitchers that hit, you have the great combo of Bieber, Savale, and, you know, at the top of it really anchoring this class for them. The other thing that kind of stands out is the guys they didn’t sign. The number of players um that they drafted out of high school that they had no chance of signing. Like, this was back in the day when the draft was 40 rounds. If you draft a kid, you can talk to him and it gives you a chance to get to know a player a little bit better. But the the guys they drafted and didn’t sign, Austin Shettton, Blake Sable, Kramer Robertson, Spencer Steer, uh Will Crowe, drafted Will Crow like two or three times. Uh never were able to get him signed. So there was some players they drafted. The other thing that stands out is um you know, their focus on left-handed bats. You know, maybe my word’s going to come back to get me. It was more of a switch hitter. Logan Ice is who they took in the third round. Um I will say I’m pretty sure in my reddraft if I were to dig it out. My first three picks were um Blake Rutherford, then it was Nolan Jones, and my third rounder was Shawn Murphy uh who I was a high man on in that draft class. But I definitely didn’t keep Savali. I can’t remember if I Bieber or not. So again, probably better off with what Cleveland did than what I did. But it’s it’s taking Logan Ice. is ignoring the local player. That year, I remember I was at a game at uh Mahoning Valley Stadium where at the time they had a minor league team and it’s it’s pouring rain. It’s a miserable day. I’m in the tunnel with like two other scouts. One of them I’m pretty was an Oakland scout and we’re watching Shawn Murphy who broke a handmade bone. So, his power is supposed to be zapped playing in terrible conditions. The ball is like dripping and he is just smacking the crap out of it and running better than a catcher supposed to and doing everything. and we’re just kind of watching this game and occasionally looking at each other and just being like, “Huh?” And that was the problem. A lot of people didn’t get chances to see Murphy that much this year, uh, or that year, I should say, because of health. So, you had to go out of your way. And, you know, I I drove specifically because I wanted to see Shawn Murphy when he was facing, uh, Youngsttown that year. And I got to see him just put on an absolute showcase. And that’s where why I had him so elevated on my board. And this team taking Logan Ice is one of those picks that’s kind of come back to haunt them because they tried to trade for Shawn Murphy. They got close multiple times. It didn’t happen. The catching position has been a disaster for years. So, while the 2016 class, I don’t want to go overly negative because bottom line, when you get Savali and Bieber, that makes this class a success. Then you add in, you know, what Packac was able to give them for a bit. You add in, you know, that that’s pretty much it. I mean, you got a little bit with Nolan Jones and if he turns, you know, Juan Bridto Breurto turns into a solid player, then you used a proper trade asset in your system to get another player and that’s going to bring more value. Uh Connor Cable was the flip, I believe, for um why am I blanking on the center fielder, uh Oscar Marcato, who gave you one good season. Um not not probably enough, uh in terms of what you want, but Connor Cable hasn’t put together one strong season, though. It’s interesting for a guy who’s only gotten 59 games in the big leagues. Uh he’s got 758 OPS. Maybe Connor Cable should get another opportunity somewhere. But it was a draft that was interesting because they went with high school hitters. Go back to segment one. You know, the idea of like trying to find um more upside and ceiling that people have been talking about. Will Benson power hitter, questionable hit tool. Nolan Jones, big- time power. Um kind of a bit awkward. Was a short stop at the time. Big kid growing into his body. Uh Connor Cable, another power hitter who kind of pops up late in the process. Ulyses can hit over power as your fourth prep player in the class. But they went for some big swings and then they took the save for college guys. And maybe this approach is something that we uh should see more of. Maybe this is actually a correct approach. Even though Benson and Jones haven’t worked out, you know, haven’t worked out in the degree of stars, right? Or not even stars, just everyday regulars. This approach though still seems to be more of the correct way looking at the data from the first one. College pitchers, you know, they went with some high ceiling prep guys, they went with some lower ceiling college players and, you know, they got enough value to make it a valuable draft in the end. Uh, yeah, a lot of it is booied by Shane Bieber. Let’s be honest, it’s a it’s a draft class that currently has a total war of 35.7. Half of that is Bieber. Uh, if you combine Bieber and Savale, that is 25 out of 35. And I bet this 35 includes the five for Spencer Steer. So, it’s really more of a draft class. It’s probably about a 30. So, 25 out of 30 is Savali and Bieber. But that’s that’s the Major League Baseball draft. You hit on two solid players, that’s that’s a success in the end. So, 2016 draft, it’s an interesting one from that perspective. This was the period too, I have to laugh, where they took like an outfielder every single year with their first rounder for like four or five years with that top overall pick. 2014 was Brady Aken, so it kind of broke that. But before that, it was Zimmer and Naquin and Papy and all these early uh guys. Quinton Holmes, the next year was the first selection. Very outfield focused. Didn’t end up with too much to show for it, unfortunately. But yeah, I think when you’re looking through the last 20 years of drafts, you’re probably going to sit back and say 2016, they could have done better, they could have done worse, but it’s probably one of their stronger showings because they got, you know, one all-star and one solid one one s young winner and one solid player out of it. Uh, you know, let me know what draft class I should cover next. This was everyday. Scott wanted to know my evaluation on I think it’s a solid B in the end. Um, I was never a Benson guy and missing out on Murphy. He’s the local guy. You had more opportunity than anyone to scout him, but they haven’t always drafted that many Ohio guys. That’s kind of one of those things. Uh, overall they they took big swings. Like Benson, everything was plus on him but hit tool and that’s still the problem for him. Jones, he had big power and great athleticism. You know, they’re still trying to piece him together. They they had a interesting approach. It’s kind of what people have been hoping they would do more recently, I feel like. Um, and they did to a degree with Ralphie Velasquez going, you know, similar to maybe a Will Benson, but without some of the athleticism, um, and the chance to be, you know, a stalward outfielder. Ralphie is probably first base only, but, you know, looking for that big power. Thank you all for joining me. I hope you enjoyed today’s episode. Remember to rate and review, comment, let me know your trade ideas. Let me know, was I foolish with those. Let me know what else you’d like to know in draft comparisons like this. Yes, in the end the best catcher in this class was Will Smith. It was not John Murphy, but it’s also just an interesting uh catcher class for this grouping. But uh yeah, let me know what you think. As always, appreciate the feedback. Appreciate the positivity. Thank you all for being every go- Guardians. Go.

Cleveland Guardians’ search for impactful bats prompts a new strategy—can ramping up international signings and targeting under-the-radar power hitters like Seiya Suzuki finally solve their offensive drought? Jeff Ellis analyzes the latest trends in MLB hitter development, comparing the effectiveness of college, high school, and international prospects, and exposes why safe draft picks haven’t delivered for Cleveland.

Trade talk heats up as Jeff Ellis explores Suzuki and Tyler Soderstrom as potential upgrades, weighing trade scenarios and their potential fit in the Guardians’ outfield. The episode also revisits the pivotal 2016 MLB Draft, spotlighting Cleveland’s successes with arms like Shane Bieber and Aaron Savalli while questioning missed opportunities, including the decision to pass on local talent Sean Murphy. Is it time for the Guardians to rethink their formula for building a contender?

0:00 – Guardians’ Hitting Problem
Opening thoughts on Cleveland’s inability to find or develop impact bats. Jeff Ellis introduces the core dilemma and provides background context on the organization’s struggles and approach with hitters from the majors to the minors.

10:24 – Finding Impact Bats: Data and Strategy
Deep dive into where impact hitters come from (college, high school, international), analysis of development versus scouting, and how the Guardians can adjust their draft and international strategies for position players and pitching.

17:20 – Trade Targets for Guardians
Potential offseason trade targets for the Guardians’ outfield (focus on Seiya Suzuki and Tyler Soderstrom), analysis of fit and trade packages, and a brief discussion of free agency options.

21:00 – 2016 Draft Retrospective
Evaluation of the 2016 MLB draft for the Guardians, including successes, misses, and lessons for the organization’s draft philosophy.

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