Fitts had very poor outcome-based metrics in 2025, but his pitch grades were pretty good, suggesting he is likely to see some positive regression in the future, unrelated to any actual improvements the young starter might make.

Pitch grades are created with machine learning models that estimate how good an individual pitch is on average based on the movements of the pitch (velocity, spin rate, how much it breaks, etc) and the pitch location, and similar models can also estimate how good a pitcher’s overall arsenal is. Pitch grades are much more predictive of future ERA than past ERA is.

Fitts also has a sweeper that is significantly better than his normal slider, but he throws the normal slider far more often. The main hole in his arsenal is a weak changeup that he doesn’t throw much, which gets him hit harder by lefties. If he can develop a competitive changeup, he will be significantly better.

I see a lot of people calling him a back-end starter, but I think that’s his absolute FLOOR. I think his ceiling is low-end 2 starter (if he can get the changeup working) with the most likely outcome being a solid 3 starter on a good team.

Pitch grades are from mlbpitchprofiler.com

26 comments

  3. He will be our only starter with a stuff+ over 100 since 2022 Steven Matz. 

    I still think he is a back end starter tho, because he doesnt miss many bats. 

  5. I think it’s more about how we use him than any numbers or metrics, that’s what more important.

  6. A young, cost controlled starter with the chance to improve and a high-ceiling prospect for a 36 year old starter owed a lot of money is quite nice

  8. I think he’s going to be a pleasant surprise.

    We’re also neglecting that he’s going to be pitching half of his games at a pitcher friendly park now, too.

  11. When we have to start with “he was ass last year BUT” you know we’re in for a ride.

  13. It will definitely be interesting to see how his stuff plays in a pitcher’s park instead of Fenway and in the NL Central instead of regularly facing the Rays, Blue Jays, and Yankees.

  14. You had never heard of this guy until today but you’re questioning the other evaluations of him and declaring his new ceiling is low end P2 because his pitch grades were good? Solid take. Back of end rotation guys can still have good pitch grades. They might end up there because they have wild HR/9 rates like homeboy. 

    Hoping he’s the best pitcher in the world but this is a very Cards sub take. 

  19. In a nutshell, he has potential to be one of our starters for at least 3-4 years. He should be better in 2026 than he was in 2025. I’m happy with it.

  20. I’m just excited to see all the blue hair BFIB at the ballpark clutching their pearls while the rest of us chant Dick Fitts all night long.

  21. I don’t know why more people aren’t comparing him to Sonny. Obviously a long way to go but I love the plus sweeper. Throws underrated heat too and has a couple other pitches to mix in as well.

    Watched a few games and I love how much he throws off-speed pitches. Fun guy to watch and I don’t like/understand people limiting him to a 4/5 starter.

  23. im more worried about his health. guy went down lije 4 seperate times last year with ticky tacky injury shit.

  24. Sonny was a great Cardinal. We were lucky to have him. Class act. Looking forward to watching Fitts shove it up the Cubs ass.

Leave a Reply