Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview & Prediction | PFF

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Dallas Cowboys Preview & Prediction | PFF

PFF is running one of their biggest sales ever. 40% off a PFF plus subscription right now using the promo code black Friday. That means that you get everything fully unlocked. You get the grades, you get the stats, you get all the fantasy advice, the betting advice, which our new player prop tool is available on web as well to make you a smarter better. You’ve got all the draft analysis, the free agency analysis, all of that great stuff. Subscribe.pff.com to get 40% off a year-long PFF Plus subscription. get it. Now, the next Thanksgiving Day game that we have, this is a treat, man. Chiefs at Cowboys. Obviously, it’s Thanksgiving, so the Cowboys are going to host one of these games on Thanksgiving, but it being the Kansas City Chiefs is one thing. I think two massive fan bases in in the Cowboys in in Kansas City, but it’s the fact that this almost feels kind of must-win for both teams if they want to have any shot at the playoffs, right? The Chiefs have a little bit better of a record than the Cowboys, but I think they’ve also got the deeper hole that they have to dig themselves out of in order to make the playoffs. I don’t even know if they’re going to contend for the division at this point. It’d have to be a real collapse by the Denver Broncos for that to be the case and it’ have to be an incredible run by Kansas City. But even with them making the wild card, then of course the Cowboys are behind the eightball in the record book in the win loss column as well. So, these are two teams that if there’s ever a do or die game as early as Thanksgiving, it kind of feels like this is one of them. So, you want to talk about the Cowboys or the Chiefs here for this preview? Look, I’m going to talk about Dak Prescott. I think he’s right in the middle, right in the center of attention here. He took down a great defense this past week against Philadelphia, and he’s got another one to deal with here in Kansas City. The secondary especially, he’s outstanding. And I think there’s so much suspense that’s going to go into this game when it comes to Dallas’s passing game, right? When you look at Prescott being one of the best passers in football vertically on 10 plus yard throws, seventh in both passing grade and adjusted completion rate. But the Chiefs are a top three team in the NFL at preventing those vertical passes from being completed. They’ve allowed the second fewest completions on 10 plus yard throws and have the third best coverage grade. When you look at just all of the elements of the passing game in this one, you talk about George Pickins and Sidi Lamb, Terrence, sorry, Jake Ferguson, uh, Cavonte Turpin, right? All the guys in the passing game that can make big plays for the Cowboys. And then you look at Jaylen Watson, Trent McDuffy, how how often is he going to be on CD Lamb and the slaughter? How often is he going to be outside? Brian Cook, Chamari Connor at safety, right? All the depth of corners that the Chiefs have. I I just think it’s just going to be such a great good on good battle in this passing game. And Prescott’s going to be at the top of his game. And then as always, there’s the there’s the battle with the quarterback versus Steve Spagnolo, right? How often is Spagnolo going to blitz him? Dak Prescott’s been great against the Blitz and under pressure this year. Is he going to sit back in coverage and not let those those weapons on the outside, especially George Pickkins, get one-on-one opportunities? I just think there’s so many fascinating elements to this matchup that it really is going to be just so entertaining to watch when you look at Prescott and the way that he’s rolling right now getting back on this hot streak and the Chiefs secondary being arguably the best in football. Yeah. And and look, I I think that the memorable part of that Eagles Cowboys game is the fact that the Dallas Cowboys came back and they won that game. And I I don’t want to take anything away from them in that regard, but let us not forget they were down 21 to nothing in that game as well. So, even though things ended well for the Cowboys, there are still things to work on and get better at. And when you’re facing a team like Kansas City, it’s hard to believe that if you dig yourself a hole like that, you’re going to be able to get out of it. So, we know that the Cowboys have to play better right out of the gate. On the Chief side of things, obviously big win against the Indianapolis Colts, specifically we mentioned on the Monday show, holding the Colts to four straight three and outs on their final four drives of the game. That is Steve Spagnolo in this defense clamping down in the clutch when they needed to. And that’s what this defense has really been all about. But on the offensive side of things, Rasheed Rice obviously played a massive role in what they did last week. 141 yards on 12 targets, eight receptions. Travis Kelce got four catches for 43 yards. But as I was sort of looking at their offense and I I was trying to find some numbers to to say like, okay, well, what outside of Rasheed Rice? cuz I’m kind of tired of just saying like, “Oh, Rasheed Rice, he’s got to have a big game.” Because that’s basically what the Chiefs offense is at this point. If Rasheed Rice doesn’t have a big game, I I don’t really think the Chiefs can can win many ball games. And so, when I looked at some of the stats that they had from last week and that win, obviously them giving Kareem Hunt 30 carries was a big deal there. And I think when we took a look at this Chiefs team a couple of weeks ago and we were looking at that very topic, how anemic it felt like they were rushing the football. They just didn’t have any explosiveness. They didn’t have a ton of explosiveness last week. Although Kareem Hunt looked like he had a little bit more juice to him. Brashard Smith is the player that I look at and we’ve been clamoring for him to get more work in this Chief’s offense and I wonder if it’s coming because even though he doesn’t get a ton of snaps still, Dalton, when he’s on the field, he’s a factor. 2.38 yards per route run when they put him out there as a receiver or as a a running back out of the back field as a as a receiving running back. 96 QBR when he is targeted. that was I think best on the team if I remember correctly of guys who have played as many snaps as him or more over the last month. And then last week he had a 30.8 threat percentage that was second only to Rashi Rice who had I believe it was a 31.5% threat percentage which threat percentage is basically wide receiver usage how often you are targeted per route that you are running out there. So yards per route run, threat percentage, you can use those two numbers to basically say, “Hey, the offense very much prioritizes this player when they are out there on the field.” So Smith hasn’t gotten a ton of snaps. When he’s out there, they’re targeting him. I wonder if the workload is coming for him if they are going to increase his snaps and increase his ability to get the ball and be a differencemaker because they just don’t have a lot of reliable explosiveness in this offense. And I think Bashard Smith is one of those players who actually gives it to you. Now, against this Cowboys defense, they have struggled at linebacker throughout this entire season. Now, they’re playing a little bit better with Demarian Overshell in there and Logan after trading for Logan Wilson. So, it’s been a little bit le of late, but still a player who is as athletic as Smith going up against those linebackers. I mean, oversh, you know, he’s just coming back to form and he’s getting his feet wet after coming back from that major knee injury. Logan Wilson. I think the lack of athleticism right now in his career is why Cincinnati moved on from him when they did. So, I think this is an area for them to exploit. So, look for Bashard Smith to get more involved. I know we’ve said that a couple of times over the last few weeks, but it really the numbers point to him being a very positive return on investment type of a player when they’ve got him out on the field. I do think the Chiefs win this one. I think the Chiefs win 28 to 24. I think this is going to be a really fun game, but ultimately I’m gonna go with Kansas City because with their back against the wall, um I’m I’m just not going to bet against Patrick Mahomes until he shows me that I should. And I don’t think the C the the Chiefs are at that point, especially with everything on the line right now. I I’m still and I know it’s Patrick Mahomes and I know you had one of his classic comebacks last week, but I’m still not entirely sure that their offense, if they get if they do get into a shootout here with Dallas, if they have enough to get it done, right? I know Isaiah Pacheco’s coming back. Hopefully the run game will look better than it’s looked recently. But the Cowboys run defense has been a lot better. And I I do think Dak Prescott, if you don’t get enough pressure on him, he can take advantage even with even going against I should say a good secondary with Kansas City. It’s going to be a fun battle. I think it’s going down to the wire. I’m actually going to go with the home team. I’m taking Dallas 31 to 27. Okay. We actually disagree. I just noticed this. We disagree on the first three games that we’re talking about. We’re on the opposite side of the coin on all three games that we have for Thanksgiving

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The Kansas City Chiefs and The Dallas Cowboys.

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