Everyone keeps comparing Nimmo to Semien. Sure, they got traded, but it literally doesn't matter. Semien isn't replacing Nimmo on the field. He's replacing the paycheck Steve was sending to Nimmo. Semien replaces McNeil, who is generally our 2B. Not Brett Baty. Not Ronny. Baty is either going to be our 3B or traded away. McNeil with either be super utility or traded away. Regardless, we didn't get Semien to sit on the bench. Who we replace Nimmo is still yet to be determined, but let's stop comparing Semien to people irrelevant to his positional value and let's talk about Semien vs McNeil.
I added their comps for BBRef (2024-2025), Savant, and Fangraphs.
In general, it seems like the offensive production is/will be about the same. Which is fine for a guy batting 7-9 in the lineup. Semien has the higher floor and they're just 1 year apart in age. We'd have McNeil for 2 more years (team option), and Semien for 3.
The obvious upside for Semien over McNeil and what makes him that much more valuable at 2B is the defense. McNeil is fine defensively, but Semien is elite. He is coming off an injured 2025 season in which he led the league in several defensive metrics still and won a Gold Glove. Over the last 5 years, Semien has been a much better fielder and it isn't particularly close.
So we freed up LF and got better defensively. Our goal now should be improving offensively in LF. Unless we sign Schwarber to play LF, I can't imagine our defense getting any worse there going into next year so that is a non-factor in Nimmo's replacement.
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The analysis is not complete without seeing who they get in LF. If they only get a replacement level player inf LF (which is certainly possible if things go wrong) then we net lose WAR (Nimmo + Mcneill at 4.9 for 2025 and Semien at 3.3). It’s not a slam dunk either way, definitely an interesting beginning to what good be a solid core reshaping but Stearns needs to land the plane. Also I’ve followed Nimmo since I remember Joe and Evan discussing him as Sandy’s first pick and the only first rounder from Wyoming. He’s my favorite all time player and clearly alot of people agree. Let us mourn the loss of God’s child.
I wouldn’t be surprised if McNeil plays a decent amount of first and Pete DHs after he comes back
In theory this is true. But I think it’s a lot more fluid than that.
Daniels has specifically spoken about the need to improve defensively. Schwarber doesn’t really do that. And I don’t see Soto, Alonso, and Schwarber existing in the field together if defense is really a priority.
I think they end up trying to thread the needle and compete while not blocking guys like Williams and Benge long term. So McNeil could absolutely be the starting LF if they end up adding someone like Bellinger to man CF short term.
I also don’t see them trading Nimmo to then turn around and go long term on a player like Tucker either.
I think the team is going to look a lot different, and definitely better defensively. Just won’t really know until it’s built out. I don’t think Pete is coming back though.
No offense, but this is a bit of mental gymnastics to justify the trade. That’s not to say the trade is or will end up being bad, but it was very much a Semien for Nimmo move and Semien’s offense, as of right now, is replacing Nimmo’s 1:1. If we end up getting a legit LF then sure, you can say we massively upgraded at 2B, but as of right now we downgraded offensively and are hoping Semien’s defense doesn’t decline with age (which, despite winning a gold glove last year, already showed signs of happening). Also, the outcome of the trade is highly contingent on what we do at the DH and 1B spots too. If we just go out and get a LF but fail to re-sign Pete and don’t get a high end DH, we massively downgraded our team in part to the Nimmo trade.
McNeil is a useful utility piece. This trade further cements him in that role.
Bro. McNeil didn’t even play half a season at 2b for us last year. Pretty wild then to compare him right off the bat. Also he’s a dramatically better hitter and more versatile fielder because he plays so many positions. Finally he’s younger, makes less money and isn’t coming off of a broken foot. It’s pretty telling that you’re comparing career stats because this guy in his current form can’t hit and is hurt, but if we are comparing career stats, how many batting titles did this guy win?
The gymnastics here is wild
SQUIRREL
What’s the time frame of the comparison? Last two seasons?
This is incredibly misleading. These aren’t single year stats.
Last year Semien only hit .230 with a .305 OBP and a .669 OPS. But that’s not what you would think looking at this aggregated stat line. You would think he hit over 30 HR when in fact he only hit 3 more than Jeff, it was also his 2nd straight massive declining year in a row, and he’s 35 and making $26M the next 2 years. Jeff hit significantly better playing through injury and is two years younger.
We spent last season frustrated by out lack of offense in Centerfield. Even watched Stearns trade for Mullins.
We basically traded for an older second base version of Tyrone Taylor who ended the season on the IL with a serious foot injury.
This stat line in this screen shot is propped up by his 2023 season.
If Semien is our startingb2B this season we are in trouble because he doesn’t hit well enough anymore to merit playing everyday regardless of his defense.
First, our “long haul” 2B is Acuna, not McNeil. I do think that Semien can be a three year bridge to Acuna.
Second, when we fucking dump McNeil, Mauricio, Bae, Morabito, & Young, move Pete over to DH, and get a quality 1B/LF’er out of the deal, then I will appreciate this 5D chess nonsense. But with the current roster, if nothing changes, we are fucked for 2025.
Now if the get Bregman next then we have turned a big weakness into a big strength
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So im still not really sure is semiens bad on offense or is he still at least like league average. Hes obviously regressed from where he was a few years ago.
For me if hes simply league average offensively, elite defender with 2 less years than nimmo then ill take that.
Ive loved Nimmo but im glad they got out of that contract even if only kind of.
man this makes me realize how far mcneil has receded from his .300+ BA days.
Yes but how good are Semien stats at first, third, left and right field on the fly?
McNeil doesn’t play nearly as much at second base. McNeil is a good keep for us as the new utility guy. He plays everywhere and can fill in where we need him. Comparing him to a full time second baseman isn’t exactly the only comparison that matters.
This trade truly can’t be evaluated until other moves are made. There are pros and cons here, but ultimately the more practical move is to trade Nimmo.
A big unknown with Nimmo is how he will fare in his older age. Semien is older than Nimmo and declining offensively but the guy literally just won a Gold Glove. He has proven that even in his mid 30s, he can be an elite player in an important facet of the game, that is also a current need for the Mets. — basically his contract may age better.
Nimmo has never been elite at any 1 thing. This past year he was solid-streaky offensively but declining defensively. Realistically, the Mets have probably already gotten the best years out of Nimmo, especially relative to his current contract. Nimmo 2022 – 2025 will be better than Nimmo 2026 – 2030.
I can see Nimmo still being solid this year, but there is also a high possibility he becomes a platoon like OF from 2027 – 2030. And in that reality, you are paying $20M/year for a guy who cant play everyday and offers no elite upside when he is out there. This is a possibility with Semien too, but you’d need to do it for less time now
But the trade is really only ‘good’ if the Mets replace Nimmo in OF with a big name and Semien maintains his abilities defensively at 2nd.
There’s no point to compare the two players one is a second base and the other is a leftfielder. The New York Mets should’ve traded for another left left fielder and should’ve acquired from the Texas Rangers left fielder backhanded hitter gold glove cover winner every year Wyatt Langford. If I worked for the New York Mets that definitely would’ve happened with the metal required Wyatt Langford. I’ve tried everything emails letters, phone calls and now I am trying through Reddit. I hope anyone that works in the New York organization sees my comment and takes me seriously because I could help this organization when the World Series in 2026 and beyond yes they need more defense production but then also offense as well with my portfolio of 15 moves I combined both of those things, great offense and great defense, and also an awesome pitching staff not just in the rotation in the bullpen
Best part of the Nimmo trade for me is that we were able to ship him out of the NL East. Otherwise, I’d be getting strong Murphy/Wheeler/d’Arnaud vibes from him.
Great freaking post man.
baty/vientos at 3rd, semien/acuna/mauricio at 2nd but the younger guys can develop more in AAA. tucker in left
I think we’re forgetting just how easy it is to find a 25 homer, 90 rbi, negative DRS corner outfielder with no speed. There’s one in every free agent class and on every trade deadline hot stove. It’s a lot harder to find a 2B with an elite glove and an average bat.
I totally glossed over the fact it wasn’t Nimmonbeijg compared! Now that I’m aware I agree 100%, I said it last night, I didn’t have the stats but that Simmy was a better 2B then we had yesterday! The stats make it clear.
The other part of this is the comparison of Nimmo to whomever is our LF the next ~2 years and whomever is our DH ~3 years after that. I feel confident that we will be looking at a borderline “all-star” in LF AND we have several guys on the roster, and Alonso possibly who may need that DH on occasion.
I see this very simply; We’re better at 2B today, we will almost certainly.be better in LF and I guarantee we will have a better DH, whether it be one guy (Likely to be signed or called up) or be a place to let Alonso, Baty and/or Soto to get breaks or move fully if we get a solid 1B or a GG in RF.
We also free up some money sooner than later and that could directly affect who is in Left and who is at 1st and possibly our Pitchers. I know we are happy with a fan owning the team but even if there aren’t “literal” limits to what he can pay I do believe he is not going to spend frivolously or pay obscene amounts in penalties.
I see this as a win both today and each of the 4 years that follow, it may be a win for Texas as well, don’t follow them and frankly don’t care! Im as happy with a win/win as I am with winning the trade outright.
Sidenote, does McNeil play LF? I’m hopeful we get a fast GG caliber guy out there to let CF ‘cheat’ to right and help Soto, who from what I saw is average with what he can get to and above average with his arm. Keeping him in RF as long as possible is optimal imho, and that means speed in left as well as center unless we’re talking about someone that hits like Alonso or Soto in the XBH department. Best case is we get a GG with a plus bat and speed.
I think you need to view it as Semien replacing the combination of McNeil/Baty/Acuña/mauricio. Semien gives the Mets that baseline of all 4 of them with the upside of his bat scaling higher in Citi and everyday gold glove defense. Right now, McNeil is an ultra utility glove. It also places Baty firmly at 3B.
There’s a whole lot more creativity to play with. The offseason doesn’t have to be perfect but it does have to be a damn, good one.
It is good trade for 2B but I’ll miss nimmo dearly.
Exactly!!!!
I’ll bet more Nimmo jerseys are worn at Citifield than Semien in Tx.
We have a ton of young infielders to also package up very nicely. Acuna, Baty, Mauricio, McNeil, Jett Williams.
McNeil is on the trade block.
We have to much to offer and we wouldn’t have traded Nimmo if we weren’t going to improve @ LF. We traded a fan favorite and a solid producer at the plate. The LF position WILL BE filled with a big name, and if we are going to base this theory off of statements made by Sterns, we will be focusing on RUN PREVENTION, which to me sounds like Cody Bellinger. I would rather have Tucker, for the record.
But the team still lost all of Nimmo’s 2025 offensive numbers, which were somewhat productive. I don’t know how they can be so easily forgotten.
This is only true if they replace Nimmo’s offensive numbers.
yikes. this is embarrassing. for his avg, obp, and ops to all be worse than Jeff McNeil…over 2 seasons (i assume) no less…is a travesty.
This trade is looking worse and worse and more like the Mets are buying a name instead of a player trending in the right direction.
Semien in serious offensive decline which at his age will get worse fast.
I’m blown away there are people on here, potentially most of the people, who didn’t like this trade.
300 more plate appearances. Bullshit stats.
So what’s the consensus here? Nimmo was traded to save a few bucks? Cause they have a FA OF in mind?
Yes, I’m aware this swap improves the infield defense. I absolutely see the logic but I guess I’m wondering if people think this is the first domino to fall that might lead to, say, Kyle Tucker.
honestly, this makes me feel better about the trade in terms of answering my question of “how does this make us better???”, which was my immediate gut reaction, so thank you.
but the fact that he’s gonna take Jeff off the field as well is like kicking me in both balls! lol!
Love Nimmo but he doesn’t get on base like he used to and he doesn’t move well in the outfield anymore and my 3 year old might have a better arm at this point
I have no idea why this franchise is in love with .230 hitters.
Might as well just start Acuna WITHOUT LOSING YOUR STARTING LEFT FIELDER if the whole point was good defense with below average hitting
And everyone would say that’s stupid why start Acuna
Now you see why we all think Nimmo for semien is even stupider
Glove first 2B can be had for a small fraction of what they’re going to be paying him if that’s what they wanted.