Should the Miami Heat “go for it” in wide open East? | Five on the Floor

Should the Miami Heat “go for it” in wide open East? | Five on the Floor

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[Applause] Welcome to Five on the Floor, a daily insider show on the Miami Heat and the NBA featuring Ethan Skolnick, Greg Sander, Alex Toledo, Brady Hawk, and others from the Five Reason Sports Network. Also, make sure to subscribe to Off the Floor for the most heat anywhere. All right, welcome back to five on the floor. Here’s today’s floor plan. I’m Ethan Scholic. You can follow me at Ethan J Skolick at five reasons in sports. I got Greg Savander. You can follow me at Greg Savander. Check out the episode that I did with our guy Adele where we went through the Heat’s recent drafts and pretty much they have hit on every pick since 17 that they’ve had. way above and beyond with the exception of Precious who actually was drafted in the proper slot. Uh it’s just that there were two guys drafted after, but he was drafted his production is to the level of in the NBA is to the level that they picked him in that particular draft. And then Yoic, who we’re waiting on, uh and Cass, who we’re waiting on. Uh but Yovic is even ahead of his draft slot even with the recent setbacks. So, and Cass uh Casperis uh Yakonis is uh is lighting it up in uh GLeague now. He’s played better and better with each game and we expect he will come eventually. Okay, so we’re going to talk about something else though. Uh Greg and I uh the Heat are about to play Detroit on Saturday night. We’re recording this on Friday afternoon. The news came in that Haimey Hawkins Jr. mispractice with a groin strain. Um, I’m expecting him to be listed as questionable, likely a game time decision type situation. That may create an opportunity for Yoic. He’s the odd man out right now. He’s the 11th. Simony Fontio seems to be the 10th, but only in the first half, which is something I thought Spo might do. Kind of that nine and a half man rotation. Guy got it going in the first half, he plays him. Second half, if he doesn’t, he doesn’t. Tightens it up a little bit. Uh, but could be more minutes for Fonteo against his former team, Duncan Robinson, going to be making an appearance down here in Miami. He’s been really good, by the way. really good uh for Detroit as we thought he would be and but Fonteo was a little cheaper and they weren’t going to pay Duncan the years going forward and it’s created opportunities for other guys and then again we’ll see what happens with Yoic but Detroit coming here and I know they just lost they were on a 13game winning streak we thought they’d be good right like this is it’s not surprising that they’re good the surprise is as we pivot to the topic today is that they’re this good right for sure I think that we thought Detroit would be among the teams fighting for home court, right? Like that was essentially going into the year we felt like that could be the leap that they take. And instead, now mind you, the Heat are only two and a half games back of them and could gain an entire game by beating them. So, they’re not far ahead of the pack at the East, but at 15 and three, they are at the top of the conference. If you look at win percentage throughout the league other than OKC, they are uh you know the best the best winning percentage so far. It’s you know they’re 18 games in. So we’re almost to this 20 game evaluation mark that Riley has always you know kind of targeted just generally. So if you think about that for all teams it is kind of a moment to look back and and Detroit is better than we thought they’d be. They’ve separated themselves in terms of being one of those teams that’s in that four to nine range to being a qualified top three team in the conference. And right now, obviously, the best team in the conference. We’ll see if that lasts all season because I think the theme of what we’re going to talk about is that it’s wide open, but it’s also still early. Yeah, it is still early. Um, and the way that they’re doing this is they’re riding an MVP candidate in Kate Cunningham. I don’t think he’s going to get that because there’s so many players, whether it’s Joic or Giannis or SGA, they’re playing at this ridic and Luca playing at a ridiculous level. Those four guys in particular who kind of came in as the four primary MVP candidates. They’ve all raised their level this year. So, I don’t know that Kate’s going to get there. But, I said before the season, I thought he could be a top three player in the East. And it appears right now he is. Taking a ton of shots. Um they’re going to him late as we expected they would. They’re young players. Jaylen Duran in particular have popped. These are top 10 talents that they’ve taken. There’s even a couple like Ron Holland who haven’t even really gotten the opportunities yet. But they accumulated a lot of high picks over the years because they were bad. And it looks like they did hit on the majority of them as Orlando did. By the way, Orlando, Houston, and Detroit. I had them in the same mix. They were teams that kind of went the tank direction at around the same time. Houston and Orlando seem to get out of it first, but Detroit now has passed Orlando in some ways. Although the Orlando situation is is more complicated because they seem to play better without Paulo, which I really have not figured out. But that has they’re 500 team with Banker this season and they’re uh they’re above 500 significantly without him. So there’s the all of these teams, they have their own little kind of quirks. Detroit, again, they’re playing with Cunningham as their lead guy. Duncan has fit in perfectly as a catch and shoot guy and and running doing the things he did in Miami. Uh and again, good for him. But it does make the point here. Uh the two the there are only two teams that are going to be playing on Christmas in the East. They scheduled five games, the NBA did. Only one is between East teams, and it was New York and Cleveland. The reason for that is because the expectation was that at the end of the day, to use an Alex phrase, that when the dust settles, to use a bad expression, the uh the the Cavs and the Knicks would be the top two teams in the East. I don’t know that that’s really changed significantly. The Knicks haven’t had Brunson for part of it. They’ve been implementing a new system with Mike Brown. They’re playing faster. Not quite as fast as the Heat, but they’re playing faster. But the Heat have beaten them two out of three. Brunson didn’t play in one of them. Cleveland, the Heat have split with Cleveland. Uh, the Cavs haven’t had Strus back yet. DeAndre Hunter is playing at a higher level than he did last year. Donovan Mitchell also is probably one of the top three players in the East so far. You can count him in that category. He’s raised his level. I don’t think they’re less uh imposing than they were last year. But I think both you and I thought and others thought that the Knicks and Cavs have holes. They’re not they’re not dominant teams that they’re they’re good teams with a lot of good players, but they’re not dominant. So, you take those two, what set them to the side. Okay. The team Indiana that advanced to the finals last year is cooked. The other teams that we thought because of injuries and other things, the other teams that we thought would be bad, you know, Charlotte, Washington, Brooklyn, they’re bad. And so, and Orlando again is is kind of in this weird place where they haven’t really figured themselves out. They were defensive identity last year. They’ve tried to open up under under Jamal Mosley. They’re kind of in this weird space. Philadelphia can’t get everybody healthy. They need to pivot away from Embiid and George. I don’t think they’re a threat. Uh and then so you’re really looking at Detroit and Toronto, which is the shocker to me more than Detroit. uh in terms of teams that have really popped here and I don’t know what Toronto is. Brandon Ingram has emerged as their lead player. They still have Scotty Barnes. They have Quickley. Barnes is playing awesome by the way. Barnes is playing awesome. They have RJ Barrett. But again, they haven’t gone very far. And I’ll just ask you if you look at this in context, Greg, and the fact that the two established teams that we thought New York and Cleveland are good but not dominant. And then these other two teams that have emerged above the Heat so far, Detroit and Toronto, haven’t proven anything in the postseason. I mean, Detroit made it. They lost to been seven to the Knicks last year. Toronto, we didn’t expect to be in the postseason. Does that mean this is the time to go for it? And then we’ll get into the second half of this episode. What exactly does that mean? Nobody in the East is scary, including the Heat, frankly. And I think that the Heat’s style of play and the way that they’ve been so high octane on the offensive end for most of the season so far has made them feel um at times uh like he they’ve look I guess this is what I mean they’ve looked as good as any of the teams in the Eastern Conference inclusive of Detroit in in moments right but obviously Detroit’s to top the conference but I don’t trust Detroit Toronto those are two teams that still have to go through pain. I have this philosophy on the playoffs and I think that teams when you build like a a core group, a core group has to go through some pain before they break through. It’s just the way it goes. It’s my been my experience as a heat observer for so much time. And I just think that that’s kind of the the right of passage. And so that’s why it to me it felt like Cleveland or New York had they felt enough pain lately that maybe they could break through. I had New York actually coming out of the East when we did our predictions as a network. But it does beg the question when none of these teams are scary like that reeks of an environment where if the Heat have anything that resembles a shot and so far they definitely have a shot. It’s definitely the type of climate where historically the Heat have looked to pounce in these scenarios where there’s not like a guy at top the conference that you’re like, how the hell am I going to get through LeBron James? And even in those circumstances, Ethan, they’ve still tried to go for it. Like that hasn’t stopped them. But this is particularly a year where there’s like Joker’s not in the East and that’s helpful. Well, the best player in the East has a garbage team around him. Correct. and Giannis and we saw that garbage team push the Heat to the buzzer but again the heat are working through some things right now. Um and we’ll see if Giannis plays tonight actually because that impacts the Heat. That’s that NBA and you may be listening to this on Saturday so it might have already happened but if if Milwaukee beats New York then the Heat advances in the NBA Cup but Giannis is still questionable and don’t know if he’s going to play yet. It feels like no. Uh but we’ll see. But that’s the biggest thing is that the player who is the up top the conference in terms of I don’t think anybody would argue that Giannis is is not the best player in the conference. He doesn’t have anything around him and and so that does make things more open uh than when you were looking at LeBron who never had a team as bad as Giannis has had here. I I I this the 07 I know people talk about he took that 07 team to the finals and that team was Booby Gibson and all the rest of this but this is a a categorically bad team. Ryan Rollins might be their second best player actually and he’s emerged out of nowhere. So I I just don’t buy the Bucks and that’s why I think ultimately things are going to go south with Giannis in Milwaukee which is one of the reasons and we’ll get to this on the other side. I would not jump at certain things right now. There’s a second reason that I would not jump at other things right now and that’s a team uh that’s in the Western Conference. But we’ll touch on that in a second. Before we do, you know what? You should jump on this phone number. uh particularly, you know, get it in your pocket on your phone in case you have a car accident. It’s our friends over at 305800 PIN. That’s 305800 PAIN. The brand is the number. The number is the brand based in Dorado. Car accident slip and fall. Anything else, they will get you to the right attorney. Again, good folks down there. Uh speak Spanish. So, if that is your primary language, they can work through you work through it uh that way. And again, they’re available 24/7. They’ll get you to the right attorney. So, reach out to them. 305800 Payne. That’s 305800 Payne. Again, the phone number is the brand. It’s easy to remember and this is the call that you want to make. Okay, let me get to the first part of this. Okay, it’s one thing to say you can compete in the East and it’s another thing you can say compete for a title. I I don’t know where that goes into the thinking, but OKC is 18-1, I believe, and they are getting their second best player back tonight, who has not played the entire season. They also have potentially three lottery picks that are not their own for this upcoming draft. They own seven other picks I believe in the next three years. I am not saying you throw in the towel, anything can happen. Uh the OKC team with Durant Harden and Westbrook and Ibaka looked inevitable and it was in fact not inevitable to win a championship. So you don’t just pack it in. But before we get into kind of whether or not you’d make any kind of a move here or consolidation trade or push forward because you think you got a chance to win the East, does the fact that you probably can’t win the whole thing against an OKC, a Denver or Houston or one of these other teams that comes out of the Western Conference, I mean, if one of those teams is good enough to beat OKC, then they’re probably good enough to beat you. I know matchups matter, but still, does that impact your thinking at all? It’s an interesting question because I I have always said don’t don’t um like remember when the Warriors were really good and they got KD and we and it was kind of like a moment where everyone said, “Oh gosh, they’re going to be so good. Like what what’s the point of even trying to build?” I don’t think you should have that mentality because the Pacers got to the finals against this Oklahoma City team that does look I mean you’re you’re right in that they look overwhelmingly amazing. They’re 18-1. They’re so good. But the Pacers took him to seven. And had Hallebertton not get injured, they could have stole that series. And it would be a stolen series in that the Indiana was clearly not as talented as SGA and that toptobottom roster that is so talented. Uh, and they’re just as good this year, if not better, because Jaylen Williams hasn’t even really played yet. So, it I understand the sentiment of like, is this OKC’s moment? But to me, once you get to the finals, all bets are off. Hallebertton proved that. The Heat have proved that in the p in the past in terms of like the the Mavericks finals uh in ‘ 06. I just think there’s too many things that can happen and you can steal a championship. So, for me, OKC does not like dissuade me from going after it. That’s just me personal. Yeah, I don’t think it would dissuade them either. I that’s not the way that they operate. I’m with you on that. Um otherwise you’re going to have 29 teams operating that way this year. You know I mean this can’t be understated. Jaylen Williams is their second best player. It’s not Chad Homegrren. And correct and they haven’t had him the entire season. And they are so far ahead of everybody else in defensive rating right now. By the way, who is second? The Heat, which is a whole another episode that needs to be done. And I’m going to do this with Brady because there is a total misconception on social media that the Heat are not playing defense because everybody sees the ping-pong ball scores and that’s not it. Frustrating. Oh, it is. I It’s just people who don’t understand the modern game. I apologize, but we try to educate here as much as we can. Defensive rating is it is basically it’s pace adjusted because it’s it’s based on 100 possessions. And so it’s apples to apples when you’re going team to team. And the Heat are second in defensive rating. Now, they are nowhere near OKC. They’ve also played a tougher schedule than OKC. So, I’m not saying they’re better defensively than OKC, but this idea that the Heat have not defended because they’ve given up 120 or 130 or 117 or is just not accurate. And they’ve gotten to this second overall defensive rating with Bam missing time. And their defensive rating with him on the floor is significantly better. And the reason this bothers me, and I’ll do the episode with Brady, this is going to affect Bam’s chances for defensive awards, if people just look at the scores. If they look at the defensive rating, he’s going to be in contention. If they just look at the scores, he’s going to be out of contention. And that’s So, we’re going to keep harping on this all year because it is it’s just people who don’t understand the game. The Heat have been better defensively than offensively this year. I I know I know it’s hard to process that. Yeah. people don’t they can’t accept that. I I I know it’s hard to process and a lot of their offense has come off their ability to defend. And by the way, if they could grab a damn defensive rebound, which those metrics are better than the eye test also, but if they could grab a defensive rebound, their defensive rating would be even better and their offensive rating would be better because they would be able to get out and run more often. So, I’m just I’ll have Brady on to educate with that on that one. But I but look, here’s where I’m at with it. I’m going to stay in exactly the same place, okay? And so I’m going to be consistent on all this stuff. You do not touch this team unless it is for a top 10, 15 player in the league. I’m I’m laying it out there right now. Okay? I I do not I’m not even really for the Iguadala Crowder trade that we’ve talked about a lot, the one that they made to get to the finals. Yeah, they’re so deep. It’s like, do they really need that trade right now? Like that’s not the pieces they need. They need that the lead guy who’s who’s gone all the way, finished the deal, and knows how to do that, right? Oh, I know a guy, someone who’s gushing about Spolster recently. I saw that clip. I just I can’t help it. The one exception that I would make to going to get a current top 10 player in the league, which to me, I’m I’m holding your assets for Giannis or Anthony Edwards. I’m I’m just standing there, okay? Doesn’t mean they’re going to get either of them. Both situations are playing out as you’d want them to play out if you’re a Heat fan. Okay, Giannis has no effing help. We said this before the season. He is in the prime of his career. He’s 30 years old. Okay, he can still carry a team to the finals, particularly in the East. If he has a team, you could you could I’m not saying it’s going to happen. Again, if OKC wants Yiannis, they’re getting Yiannis, okay? They trade all the picks, okay? and just keep their core three. And also, OKC is also benefiting that Jaylen Williams was out. This is how ridiculous this is. He’s missed this time, which means he’s not eligible for AllNBA this year. He move 13 all NBA, which means he’s not eligible for the Supermax Max, which actually saves OKC money under the aprons. So, they’re not even going to go into the aprons. Okay? And they’ve been historically cheap. That’s why they lost Harden. So, like everything is working in their favor. Okay? Take them out of the equation. If they want they want to trade for Giannis, they’ll get Giannis. But if they don’t, okay, the Heat could trade three or four of these rotation players. Get Giannis and picks. Okay, get Giannis. Again, I’m not going to do all the math. Alex and I were playing around with it at the game the other night. And they still would have a far superior supporting cast to Giannis than what he has in Milwaukee. So, I am not I am not trading to for a Trey Young or a John Morant or a Zion Williamson or a Damont Sabonis or what the f is this about Demar De Rozan again? Okay, Brett Seagull, please stop including the Heat in that convers What do the Heat need Demar De Rozan for right now. Yes, if he would have come and taken uh that 5.8 million in a couple years, sure would have been an upgrade. What is Demar D Roza? Demar Dorson slows down the game. This is what you want right now. Okay, I know he had a big dunk the other night, but like he slows down the game. That’s No, stop it. Okay, you’re not you’re not making that kind of trade right now. That’s not where they’re at. Anthony Davis, you are waiting for things to implode. That’s the one we talked about and I but I $62 million a year. It’s a lot. When he’s going to play under 62 games, I I get it. He’s the move that they would make. He’s the I hate to say intermediary move. okay that he would make. He’s not a top 10 player anymore because he doesn’t play enough. I I don’t I mean he can be, but he’s also has not been good in the postseason with the except really since he made every mid-range shot against the Heat in the bubble. I mean, he hasn’t. So, there are two guys you’re you’re waiting for two situations to implode. Minnesota is not coming out of the West. Ant might lose in the first round. I don’t think so, as long as they get to like a four or five seat. But if they’re a six seed, they’re losing in the first round. And they could be a six seed. Right now, they’re kind of right now, right? Only two games above 500 in a really cutthroat Western Conference. And let’s also remind everyone that uh the San Antonio Spurs are coming in the West as well, right? And when and whenever WBY comes back, right? And I mean that conference is split where like the bottom seven teams are not very good. Okay. Uh cuz Memphis is in the spot right now. They’re not very good and yet they’re in a play spot. That the bottom of the West is not good this year. But the the top is elite and I don’t think they’re getting past uh Denver, OKC, Houston, maybe not the Lakers, and you know, the Clippers are bad. Dallas is bad, right? That those are two teams that have sunk to the bottom, but I don’t think they’re getting past those teams. So, if if he loses in the second round, which I think is probably their ceiling. I don’t think it’s the conference finals this year, the volume, that’s what you’re waiting on. Like, do you do you want to give up picks and good young players for for a slight upgrade potentially now and then you can’t get in the game for Giannis or Ant? Like, I I don’t think that’s worth it. Like, I Why get married if Jessica Alba might want you, Greg? I’m I’m sorry I had to throw that one in. Um, I mean it it’s a it’s a rare circumstance where they I guess this is what’s funny about the NBA, Ethan, is that like if if we had this podcast topic in August, we would have thought that the Heat had no depth and that there was so many issues with the roster and that the roster construction was just a hodgepodge of this and that and so many uncertain young players and now we’re talking about like keeping the group together except for a select few players in the in the conference. So, I guess it it also is an exercise in understanding how fast all this stuff can change. But is it really just you’re you’re not going to break this team up or go in for like some of these midtier stars? Is LeBron the only exception then? Okay, I we’ll give this three minutes. Okay, because I know you got to run. Yes, he is. and and and he is he is for a bunch of reasons. Uh do I think it’s going to happen? No. No. U they they like Wiggins. Um obviously Wiggins is not at LeBron’s level. Um Wiggins Yoic and a pick would work by the way I believe. Now again, would they do that? I mean, would they want Haimey? Haime doesn’t Well, oh the other problem is Yovic wouldn’t work now. I’m sorry because the extension is not kicked in yet. So I shouldn’t say that. There’s more stacking that would need to be done. Yeah. Uh and and Hawkins’s contract is not has not blown up. Look, you know, I’m partial LeBron. I’m always going to be. Um he is gushing about the Heat. This is not really new. I I’ve said that his feelings towards the Heat changed a while ago. I was with him the year after he left. It’s changed a lot. He’s been quoting Spo and Riley in a whole bunch of different ways. Uh but it’s the way he talks about him now. Um, that’s that’s even more elevated to this point. I think spending time together in the Olympics probably played into that. And I’m just saying, you could do a hell of a lot worse for a 30 minute a game power forward who sees the floor. You don’t think LeBron would be good in this offense? I mean, I I know he doesn’t run at the same speed he used to and he doesn’t elevate over the rim, but like this offense is literally based on making high IQ reads and reactions and passes. He’s the best who’s ever done it. Okay. Yeah. So, anybody who says he would not make them better is insane. Okay. He’s the one guy that could transcend league rankings in a playoff run and like bring enough players together and then close the deal that I agree with you. It’s like the one unicorn scenario. And I know he’s 40 and people are probably gonna roll their eyes at the idea of like for instance the heat having to Annie up something like hello wear, right? Like that would be tough, but I could still talk myself into it drunk shopping on Black Friday, right? That’s how you pitch this pod and I probably should have started with it. And I look I It’s a longer conversation. I’ll just say that it’s a wideopen East. He always wins the East. And I think he’d get healthy. I do. I knowing him and his team, his team, not not the Lakers, but his team. I think a lot of this stuff would clear up. I think Mike Mancas would get him right. The Heat took on Jimmy, who had was much more problematic for them behind the scenes than LeBron ever was. It’s not even close. The stuff with Pat’s been patched. There really isn’t a problem with the Harrison’s. I just it’s a one year run too, right? It feels like and and look, I’ve said if he’s going to go anywhere else, it should be one of the two places he’s been before. Either close it in Cleveland or close it in Miami if it’s not going to be with the Lakers and put the loop on your career. And winning in Miami, they haven’t won since he left. There would be impact to that, legacy impact to that, right? Like he had to come back for them to win. I don’t know if the Heat would want that. Okay, that that like to talk about that. But yeah, but but but I know what appeals to him. Okay. And I I just give me those views and downloads. That’s all. And and anyway, I still I still I still get along with dude. So, you know, it’s like I I you know, just bring it back. Okay. I’m I’m uh I’m in on it. But he’s the only one. He’s the only one. Otherwise, it’s Giannis or it’s Aunt and that’s it. And stop with the rest of this stuff. They don’t want Trey Young. I don’t want LaMelo Ball. Damonte Sabonis doesn’t defend anybody. Zion Williamson in Miami. Are you freaking kidding me? Stop it. Okay. John Morant is the third least efficient player in the NBA this season. Third least. Well, stop giving away picks for guys who are moderate upgrades. Especially again, listen to the episode that we did with Adele. But LeBron, you can talk me into one last time. Come on, bring him back. All right. Thanks for uh listening. 305 800 pain. Also prize picks. Use the code fiv. Thank you for listening to the five on the floor on the five reason sports network. After all, someone needs to listen to my dad.

Has the calculus changed for the Miami Heat, with their fast start in a conference with unproven teams at the top? Ethan Skolnick and Greg Sylvander discuss how it sets up for them…. and even mix in some LeBron conversation.

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