Yankees Have STAR Free Agents Falling Into Their Lap

Yankees Have STAR Free Agents Falling Into Their Lap

What is up everyone? This is Fireside Yankees and we’ve got an action-packed show for you guys today. A lot of rumors flying around the rumor mill. The winter meetings are just a week away, which is the perfect time for the hot stove to start heating up. Kyle Tucker, is he running out of suitors? Are the Yankees just going to have him fall right into their laps? Tatu Emi, we’re seeing his his suitors just fly off the board. Giants, they don’t got the money. Blue Jays, they signed Dylan CE. Cam Schlitler could add a secret weapon to make him one of the best pitchers in the game. And Baseball America dropped their top 10 prospects for the Yankees. We’re going to talk about all of that and more right here on Fireside Yankees. Make sure you like, subscribe, and turn on that notification bell. We’re trying to reach 30,000 subscribers. Help us reach that goal by doing those things and we’d really appreciate it. And without further ado, let’s just jump right into this. Uh let’s start with Ann That’s Baseball. How you doing today, my man? How’s your Thanksgiving? I’m doing well, man. I had a great Thanksgiving. A lot of eating, a lot of drinking, not much work getting done. That’s perfect 4-day weekend for me. And Chris, how we doing, my man? Big weekend. Big weekend, dude. You know me, man. Huge weekend. Obviously, as an Ohio State, you know, creator, it’s been a a thrilling, I guess, 48 hours, 72 hours, whatever you want to call it. But no, it’s been exciting. I’m good though. Everything was good. How about you? It’s great, man. Look, I one of my uh newfound sports fan bases as of late has been whatever makes Dave Portoy unhappy. And so when Ohio State started just taking the belt off in the snow in Michigan and just snapped the belt, started just bending over and just smack after smack after smack. It was great. It was great seeing the tweet from Point saying, “I’m not going to do the Big 10 Championship game.” That was It was chef’s kiss, man. I mean, it was beautiful. I’m I’m a true hate watcher in that regard. Uh it’s one of the few areas where I really dedicate myself to the hate watch. I don’t actually watch a lot of college football. I was seated for that game. I I was seated for that football game. Um, and I got the outcome I was looking for. And, you know, for for the Yankees, I think, you know, as we kind of switched gears here, uh, they’ve got a lot they’re going to be looking forward to this upcoming week in the upcoming weeks because the free agent market is, I think their top three guys on their board are all guys who don’t really have known markets right now. And I think it starts with Kyle Tucker, who, you know, has been linked to the Yankees, isn’t really linked to the degree where you’d expect them to have a full-on pursuit at a $400 million price range. But that $400 million price range kind of coming into doubt. You see guys like Jeff Passin, uh, instead of saying, “Hey, this is a $400 million player,” it’s, “Hey, this guy could get $300 million over 10 years, maybe more than that.” Um, the known suitors for him don’t come off as strong suitors. Blue Jays, are they going to sign him and Bashette? I really doubt that. Are the Phillies going to go away from Schwarber to Tucker before Schwarber signs? I also am not sure about that. Mets, are they going to trade? Did they trade Nimble to sign Tucker? That’s also kind of a weird fit. there just isn’t an obvious fit out there on the free agent market. And Chris, I’ll start with you here. Kyle Tucker, what what is going on with that market? I mean, if you’re kind of evaluating this from an outside perspective, do you feel like this is a player who’s going to have their market crash to the point where yeah, the Yankees can swoop in and get him on a deal that I don’t think any of us would have imagined him getting at the start of the offseason? Yeah, man. It’s really weird because like obviously like near the end of the year you and I were doing the playoff shows and one of the things that I was worried about was the Kyle Tucker market being hyper hyper competitive and then obviously like we’ll talk about Ballinger but like Binger being like okay like this market’s too competitive. We’re not going to go above and beyond. We’ll get Bellinger. Right now it feels like they could kind of fall closer AAV wise than I ever would have imagined because it does feel like the market I once felt like would be there for Tucker isn’t quite there. Um, I had a I had a a pretty strong indication or feeling early that like Kyle Tucker at least, you know, was really intrigued by the Yankees and intrigued by the bidding war that the Yankees could help him with. But I mean, honestly, there’s been not really a huge market. So, um, for me, it it’s kind of shocking and it it feels like one of the situations where him and obviously we’re going to talk about him later where two guys who were high up on the priority list that I thought were going to have pretty competitive markets might not be nearly as competitive as I once thought. and and so it’s kind of a a bizarre feeling and it makes you wonder it’s okay like there’s the used car lot that car is for a great deal what’s wrong with it is kind of where my head naturally starts to go but you know the the the market has not been nearly as as hot as I thought it would be for Kyle Tucker and there’s no obvious front runner there’s no obvious suitor so um it’s kind of a uh a weird a weird standstill right now for me and then also you hear that like the Yankees are going to prioritize Bellinger anyway so but that’s it own separate discussion which I think is more rhetoric based and more agent based but I’ll let I’ll let uh I’ll let all and that’s baseball game. Yeah, I think this is definitely we’re in the calm before the storm right now. Winter meeting starts in one week. Uh I think we could be in a totally different place this time next week. Who knows? Who knows what’s going to come out right now. The reports are still indicating that uh Bellinger is the priority. But based on Tucker’s market, I guess there’s probably a decent ch. I think everyone’s kind of staring each other down right now, seeing who’s going to break first. Yeah, exactly. Everyone everyone’s pointing at each other. Everyone’s staring each other in the eyes. It’s a [ __ ] wild west staredown. And until someone cracks that, that’s when we’re going to figure out who’s going where. Cuz right now, I think it’s still more likely we pursue Bellinger. But if Tucker’s price starts falling into that range, if it’s not that much more per year to sign Tucker, who’s a better player than Ballinger, I think it becomes more and more likely. And one thing I want to note with Kyle Tucker here is that it’s not as if there was it’s it’s not as if you feel like this is a Blake Snell uh back when he signed his three-year dealer or Matt Chapman where this was a player who you expected to get between 100 to $200 million, but there weren’t a lot of teams who were going to be willing to swim in those waters. The big market teams weren’t really in and then you know you don’t expect these medium market or small market teams to bite at that number and that’s how they end up falling to that price range. No, Kyle Tucker was a guy who was expecting to get $400 million before the 2025 season. There were conversations of, hey, if he has a big enough year, is he going to get $500 million? Is that’s is that in play for Kyle Tucker? He is someone who I I’m just stunned there isn’t a bigger market for him. If you look at, let’s say, the Blue Jays, if I was the Blue Jays front office, I would not sign Bob Bashette to a big deal instead of signing Kyle Tucker. I would just sign Kyle Tucker if I’m going to sign a big deal uh to a position player. know, even knowing that I know that Andre Semenz and Ernie Clement isn’t the most sexy middle infield, but they’re good defenders and Kyle Tucker will more than make up for that with his bat. Um, and then for the Yankees here, I mean, the fit is perfect offensively. Defensively, there was a concern there. And I remember when we did our free agency kind of preview or offseason preview, we talked about, well, it’s really hard for the Yankees to get both a center fielder and a left fielder. They’ve got the center fielder. Trent Gisham’s back and he’s back on a one-year deal. It’s kind of the ideal circumstance for them to bring in Kyle Tucker and then not worry about the payroll long-term where you’ve got Gisham coming off the books. I think I I did the math yesterday. They’ve got about $67 million coming off the books for 2027. I was wondering who was going to do it. I was going I I was almost going to say over 65 million just to avoid it, but I kind of have to do it. Um I’m getting too old for this stuff, man. I shouldn’t be doing that, dude. the day the like the first week that was the thing I couldn’t keep a straight face when we did podcast and I think it was Chris’s first episode here and he said 67 and I just kind of stared at Sam and I started doing this over and over again um so it’s it’s a problem uh of mine and I I think but we’re you know what I’m a grown ass man I got this uh but anyh who when it comes to dude have fun I think you’re the youngest out of the three of us have your fun by far is it actually damn by that I’m 24 I’m mid20s now it’s over for Am I Am I Am I uncorrect? I’m 28, dude. Hey, man. Uh, we’re all under 30. We’re all young. We’re all young. Every single Kyle Tucker is even young. He’s 29. So, hey, Ben Rice just finished his rookie year. He’s older than both you guys. Yeah, that’s a good point. Actually, I think he’s Sam’s age from if I’m not mistaken. I could be wrong there. Um, but yeah, I mean, speaking of age, like Kyle Tucker’s 29. I I really don’t understand the lack of interest in Kyle Tucker um in terms of player performance now. And I’m I’m going to say I’m I’m treading very lightly here. Um you you have to wonder if the concerns the market has with Tucker are things we should care about as Yankee fans and if the Yankees should seriously weigh those things. Um I’m going to start with and that’s baseball here. The lack of a market for Tucker. Is that a I I think it it it serves obviously a draw for a lower price, but how much of a deterrent is it for you? Like is what is the new number you’re not willing to go to for Kyle Tucker, if there is one? I mean, I feel the same way about Tucker as I did two weeks ago, three weeks ago, a month ago, six months ago. I think this guy is great. And I think it’s more attractive to me that there’s fewer big market teams in on him to to drive the bidding up. I just think I really think I see this as more of a circumstantial thing. Like the teams that typically would be in on him, they have other priorities right now. like a team like the Dodgers. The Dodgers could go all in on him, but like at at a certain point there’s uh diminishing returns when you have a payroll that high and they paid so much in tax this year and they already just won backto back. So like I don’t know if it’s worth it to them to go spend another $30 $35 million a year contract. And then you look at Toronto, they just signed C’s to that big deal. Now they’re probably prioritizing bringing back Michette just because he’s a homegrown guy. So like who else really is it? Philly, I don’t know if Philly wants to add another uh big-time contract like that who’s not a great defender in the outfield. I don’t know if the Giants I don’t even know if Tucker wants to go to the Giants because they’re big ass right field. He his bat wouldn’t play as well there. So, it just like based on the fit, we are definitely there. We we are up there in terms of fit. So, I don’t like the left field defense maybe would be an issue in Yankee Stadium, especially playing him next to Gisham. That wouldn’t be great. But you’re taking the best offense in baseball and you’re upgrading from Bellinger to Tucker who’s significantly a who’s a significantly better hitter. I’m just looking at his stats right now. This guy I’m going to go through his F4 by season since 2021. We got 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.2 4.5 last five years. And this guy’s only entering his age 29 season. If he does that exact five seasons, the next five years, that’s worth like $200 million of of dollar value. And after that, who knows? He’ll probably be a solid right fielder/DH after Judge retires for a couple of years. And he’s got the short portion right to bat age decently enough there, even if his bat speed declines. I see this as a big-time upside move with a pretty high floor. The issue I have with Bellinger is that I don’t think he he there’s a potential that he ages into someone who’s more of a league average player. Tucker, I think, when he ages will age from a great player all around to a solid player all around and still he’ll still probably be a 120 WRC plus bat in like five, six years. I mean, I’m I’m I’m right there with you, man. It’s it’s kind of bizarre because you’re like looking around like, okay, like if the market has like dried up to some extent, is this like a case where it’s too good to be true? because I think I I think we we still could see like a a career best season from Tucker. In fact, I think you would see it at Yankee Stadium. And I think that his clock lines up so well with Aeron’s clock. The older Aaron gets, you’re still going to have a player in their peak. And it’s like this and and I agree with you like it’s really circumstantial, but even when it’s circumstantial and it is this lead of a player, don’t you think there’d be at least one out there to bid with? Now, with that being said, like I I I want him. I’m I’m here for it. I think that he obviously best player available, best player on the market and obviously like fits a need and I mean him on this team would basically like guarantee that the Yankees will go another year with having the top offense in the sport and that’s what I want. I want the top offense in the sport and his bat is like dream come true um you know with with the right field. I mean we thought the Ballinger’s bat was a a great fit for Yank Stadium and it and it was now it’s Bellinger’s bat but it’s faster with more pop and just a better hitter right now. So, you know, I it it feels too good to be true. And it feels like, you know, he’s falling into the laps of the Yankees, and I’m I’m trying not to get too excited, but like I I’m just shocked that there’s not like one obvious challenger, I guess. And and without the one obvious challenger, I’m I’m still like eyebrows raised that the priority is still Bellinger, I guess. And one thing I also want to point out in regard to Kyle Tucker and and the Yankee situation here, when we talk about what Cody Bellinger produced last year, he was a five- win player. Uh, roughly on Fang Guard, I think it was 4.9, baseball reference 5.1, five war player. The player who provides you the the highest chance of doing that on the free agent market is Kyle Tucker. He’s the guy who will, I think, walk into the ballpark and produce about five wins above replacement. And, um, you talked about like he could play right field. I mean, that could happen in two years. S’s contract is up in two years. You can have Judge play some DH. Um I think Tucker’s frame actually works well for a first base transition if that ever wants to happen. He’s tall. He’s like nimble. He’s not someone who you would need to be fast to play first base either. So I think he could hold his own there. Um I just I don’t know like something about Kyle Tucker and the idea of him playing for the Yankees and this I like this world where they’re able to bring in Kyle Tucker is one where I just can’t find myself being mad at the offseason. If they get Kyle Tucker, how can I be upset? They have this this game-changing offensive player. He’s not a superstar in the capacity of a Juan Sodto, but he is a top 10 hitter the last three years, top 10 hitter the last five years, the top 10 hitter the last two years, whatever sample you want to use, he’s a top 10 hitter, and that’s the kind of player the Yankees should be all over. Now, the final question I kind of want to ask in regard to Kyle Tucker because I do think there these two are kind of at the hip. Is Kyle Tucker’s poor market also an indication of Cody Bellinger’s market or do you believe that Bellinger will have a strong market despite what’s going on with Kyle Tucker? Uh we’ll start with Annance Baseball on this one. The way I see it, like I just said, I think Tucker is a very specific he he’s a very limited fit player because he’s in that 300 plus million dollar price range. So, it’s only the really rich teams that can afford him and he’s also a lot less versatile than Ballinger. So, he can only really play left field or right field. So, I think Bellinger’s market will probably be a little bit more active because he has the center field ability, even the first base ability, and he’s a little bit more athletic at this point. And he’s also going to be probably half the cost total. He’s not going to run you, maybe he’ll run you six, seven years, but he’s probably not going to run you 8 to 10 years the way that Tucker might. So, I could Yeah, I could I could definitely see uh more teams like the more uh higherend mid-market teams will probably be bidding for Ballinger as well. And then who knows, maybe the Mets will be in on him because he’s more athletic and he can play some better defense. And I know that’s definitely a point of emphasis for them based on their off seasonason so far. So, I don’t know like Tucker’s I feel like people might be overthinking this. Tucker’s the better player and I think everyone knows that, but Bellinger is more attainable to more teams and he’s more versatile. Yeah, I mean I agree with everything that’s baseball said. I do. I guess I want to kick a question across instead of like repeating what he said. What do you guys both have to say to the portion of the fan base that would prefer Bellinger over Tucker? It has to because I I wanted to play devil’s advocate here. I I did want to and I but like I I can’t cuz I’ve been such a a Tucker guy. But there is like a large loud portion of the fan base that is kind of like echoing some of the stuff that we’re hearing from you know it’s coming out of New York reporting about you know better fit we want him more the price difference this that and the third like wants to be a Yankee like all like good clubhouse guy like we’re hearing all kind of the uh the Cody Bellinger propaganda. Now I would love Cody Bellinger back but I I want Kyle Tucker more. But what do you guys have to say about to that portion of of kind of the the think space, I guess? So, my first thought when it comes to the conversation about Cody Bellinger or Kyle Tucker, the only way that argument makes sense is if you’re saying, okay, if I’m general manager Brian Kman, I’m proposed a budget where um I need to bring in uh if I bring in Kyle Tucker, I can’t do anything else. That is a argument where yes, you would take Bellinger and you would then use the financial resources you have left over to go do other things. But um if you’re just saying, hey, even if I have the ability to spend over it, I’d rather have Bellinger than Tucker, I think you’re just wrong. Like I I don’t um I don’t think he’s Again, Tucker is not Juan Sodto, but Tucker is clearly better than Cody Bellinger. And I don’t mean to be dismissive of another baseball opinion simply because it’s an opinion and I get that. But like Bellinger is just not there’s just no way you can argue Bellinger is better than Tucker. There’s none. There’s there’s no way you can argue that Bellinger is a better baseball player. Tucker’s a better hitter. He’s a better base runner. The thing that Bellinger has over Tucker is uh defense in left field especially. And he is more versatile. That matters. But for the Yankees, they have a center fielder. They have a first baseman. Bellinger’s ability to play first base means not a lot to me for the Yankees at least. Like, if they want to have a backup first baseman, you can go acquire one and you can acquire one for not a lot of money. If you want to even bring back Paul Goldman, like a $3 million contract, I don’t care. I’d rather do that and have Tucker than um bring in Bellinger. And part of it being, well, if Ben Rice goes down, if he goes down, we’re not like that’s a hit regardless. You get what I’m saying? Like that’s that’s going to hurt you regardless. Who’s playing left over in that scenario? We’re just hearing a lot of the I’d rather have Bellinger, right? Like I’m not making that. I’m just I’m just hearing a lot of it. And like for my stance, I’m like, “Okay, I’m okay with Bellinger if it’s Bellinger and but. But if you tell Chris Drew like, hey, look, we can get get into a situation where it could be Tucker and I’m like, oh my god, let’s go.” Yeah. I I really don’t think based on how the markets are looking, I don’t know how much more flexibility financially uh it’ll give us to sign Baler over Tucker. If it ends up being a situation where they’re within like 5 to7 million of AAV, I’m definitely picking Tucker 10 out of 10 times. If it’s a ch if it’s a situation where Ballinger’s getting 23 a year and Tucker’s getting 35, then maybe there’s an argument to be made. Okay. So, ask about the question then. What is what is the numbers gap? Not to cut you off, but like what is the numbers gap that you’re okay with? I think if it’s within 8 mill 7 and a half, eight million a year, I think you have to go pursue Tucker hard. Okay. I think it’s whatever the evaluation for the league is on one win essentially because I think Tucker is one win better than Cody Bellinger. And you people might go, well, you care about one win that much? That’s in this scenario, four wins to five wins, let’s say, that’s 80% of the player. I’m getting 20% more production. That does matter to me. That that matters a lot. That’s the difference between winning the World Series and getting knocked down the LCS. That is Well, think about the one win thing. We were I mean one win we don’t play in a wild card game like the the wild card set. I mean we can even go as far like the impact of Roman Anthony on the series or the lack of Roman Anthony in that series was very loud. If the Red Sox have Roman Anthony, I don’t want to play hypothetical game, but I don’t know how that series goes and I don’t want to think about how that series goes. Um and that works in the inverse. Imagine if the Yankees went for uh a different pitcher instead of Max Freed. How does the 2025 season go? How does the postseason go? I know that they didn’t win his game one start, but he also ensured they wouldn’t have to use more of their bullpen than they needed to in that game. Um there like there you just you don’t want to you cannot put a price I think sometimes on just acquiring a guy who will change your offense like completely changes your offense. changes the way that you you can’t even like how do you pitch to Tucker and judge? You can’t throw a lefty in there. You’re not going to throw a righty in there to try to counter judge with a righty. Tucker’s a high contact, high power, high on base guy. It’s not like there’s some crippling flaw where you can expose it. It’s it’s a nightmare because he’s going to be disciplined enough to take his walks and if you decide to be an idiot and throw a fast ball down the middle middle, he’ll hit it 340 to right field and hit a home run. Well, and like hitters that hit in front of judge historically see way more fast balls than anybody else. Yeah, if if you care about fastball run value, I mean, Kucker’s at nine and Cody Bellinger’s at one. Like, that’s what we’re talking about. Like someone who against the fastball 500 slug like the and the X slug is like 585 against a four team. And again, like you would think that if he was here, he’d be hitting in front of Judge and so we’d see a lot of those. So, I believe I believe in protection as well. So, I I I just want to put that out there. Like, always believe in protection. Always always need protection. Always. Always in the lineup. Yeah. Always. But my bad. I didn’t mean to hijack your the pop. Go ahead. I mean, I’m also I’m just looking at like what Bellinger just did for us this year was fantastic. He did everything we could have ever asked for him. He put up a 4.9 F4 season. We traded for him. He was basically a salary dump for the for the Cubs to go get Tucker and he put up a 4.9 F4 season. That was fantastic. That’s we we all love that. That’s why Yankees fans want to keep this guy. He was great for us this year. But you look at Kyle Tucker, that’s his floor over the last five years. his his worst years, his only two years under 4.9 Fore in the last two seasons, he’s been on the IIL for a certain amount of time. So over the last 5 years, he’s done what Ballinger did this year or better on a rate basis. And if you put him in Yankee Stadium, you take him out of Wrigley. Wrigley was a terrible part for him to hit in. You put him in Yankee Stadium with that short porch, you could be looking at 35, maybe 40 homers. This guy could be a 150 WRC plus player. This could be a 5,67 player in Yankee Stadium. So, we know for a fact what Bellinger just did is probably his ceiling at this point. He’s not going to return to the form he was early with the Dodgers. He doesn’t have that type of power that he did during the Juice Ball years. So, what he just did is the absolute ceiling that we’re going to get. If we sign him, if we sign him longterm now, hopefully he has a year like he just did. If we sign Tucker long term, we know we’re getting at least a few of those seasons. And again, it comes back to the same reason why you brought in Cody Bellinger initially was the ballpark. And that’s the same reason why you should be willing to go out and get Kyle Tucker. Again, it’s a matter of price. I think I think we all agree that if it’s $45 million for Kyle Tucker and 27 for Cody Bellinger, yeah, I think we’d all just sign Cody Bellinger and go with that because we understand the budget’s not going to be unlimited. Despite what we would want it to be, that’s not going to be the case. You can’t spend over 20 extra million dollars in additional payroll for a player. But if it’s close enough, ah, I’m sorry. You got to go after Tucker. if you don’t like if Tucker signs for 35 mil AV and Bellinger 28 and we sign Bellinger, I’m going to have a hard time not being pretty upset about it because yeah, I also want to say I think uh something interesting I saw what we did with Freed uh in his contract. He made I think 11.5 million last year. He’s making 11.5 million this year and then next year he gets a big he’s making like 30 million. I think if we signed Tucker, obviously the tax hit would be the average of of every year, but he’d probably get a similarly like deep like uh structured contract here because our our payroll opens up a lot next uh the following season, 2027. So, he’d probably make something like 15 to 20 million next year and then really start making the real money the year after. So, I do think there’s ways that this uh front office can work around signing Tucker for a few uh if it’s like 8 to10 million more per year. So, I I really don’t think if if this is a real possibility and he’s really falling into our laps like this, I don’t think we should let a few million dollars uh per year deter us from going after him. And I will say, I think Hal is genuine about the opportunistic thing. I don’t think they just say that to say that. I think they genuinely believe, hey, if the right opportunity opens up, we will spend $330 million on a team because if the right situation calls for it, we’ll do it. But they’re not going to do it for, let’s say, like they’re not going to go to 3:30 for Blake Snell during the the year that they traded for Sodto. That wasn’t going to happen. They didn’t feel like that was worth it. They weren’t going to go for to 330 to bring in Alex Bregman on a six-year deal. That wasn’t going to happen. Um, and I don’t, you know, I understand them not doing it for even $40 million a year, even though I think Bregman on a short-term deal would have been fun. Um, I get it. I I I get it. I get it. Uh, but this is, I think, a little bit different. Now, another player who is kind of seeing their suitors dwindle down and I think is a more realistic fit uh or realistic opportunity for him to become a Yankee, it’s Tatsuya MI. It was reported earlier today by um both the athletic and NBC sports and it’s that the Giants are not going to be spending the money that’s needed in order to get Tatsuya MI. I guess it also works as like a Kyle Tucker suitor killer because they’re not looking into long-term deals. So, uh if you wanted to say for Tucker 2, Tucker is also off their board. Um, the Blue Jays just signed Dylan CE. I imagine that takes them out of the MI sweep stakes because they just committed a $200 million contract to a starting pitcher. Maybe that’s premature, but I would consider that at least a pretty sizable hit to those odds. Uh, Chris, we’ll start with you here because I know you’re a big Amay guy. Do you do you feel like Amay is just kind of falling into their lap as well? I think it’s more there’s a better chance that they’re going to be aggressive there. Um, what what are you what are you kind of feeling with this market and your confidence level with the Yankees and their chances of getting MI? Yeah, I mean you and I obviously like talked um off microphone a little while ago about this whole thing. I mean this feels like the most obvious yank in the offseason, right? Like this this feels super super obvious. We know that cash wants to get into that market. We know that kind of the Japanese ad revenue is really important to them. Um we know that they want to reestablish himself back with with players from over there. Um and this one just feels like it’s falling another lap. This feels like the most obvious Yankee ever. I mean kind of the the same way we felt the last couple years with with some of the the pitchers that signed with the Dodgers. Like I I don’t know, man. like I I would be stunned, shocked, blown away, and also I’d feel bamboozled and lied to by people I talked to if he did not end up being a Yankee. So, um that that’s that that’s kind of where I’m at. And then like add the additional like kind of fuel that he’s already provided to this fire about like wanting to beat the Dodgers and wanting to beat Yamamoto and like some of the stuff about like, you know, like wanting to be the best and it just it just lines up too perfectly. Um it it it feels like an obvious Yankee. And the more that these suitors kind of like eliminate themselves, I’m like, “Okay, like I I think I think I can see it.” almost like the leadup to signing Max Freed. Now, obviously the Max Freed thing was a little bit quicker given some of the the plan B stuff, but um it it it feels like we’re definitely headed that way. I mean, I don’t know. I don’t know if you guys are as confident as I am, but it feels like get ready to to to learn New York Yankee. Yeah. I think a couple of weeks ago when we talked about this, I gave him my roughly 60% chance. I’m probably up around 80% now because I just look at the other suitors that he has and it’s like if the the teams that have the need for him don’t have the money and the teams that have the money don’t really have the need. Like the Phillies aren’t going to go out and spend money on another starting pitcher this year in all likelihood. But like a team like San Diego who could really use him and he probably would love to go there and compete against the Dodgers. They just don’t have the money. So, and if San Francisco is not willing to pay him, which who really knows for sure, maybe this is a a smoke screen, who knows, whatever. But if they’re really out on him because of the money, I really don’t see anywhere else that’s an obvious fit the way that we are. And Toronto just signed CE and obviously they’re they’re ready to spend, but it seems like they’re probably going to sign one more deal, whether it’s Tucker or Bo. Uh, and it’ll probably be position player. So, the way I see it, obviously, I’ve I’ve voiced my concerns about Emi. like I don’t think he’s going to be as perfect as a lot of people are ringing it out to be once he gets here, but his ceiling is pretty damn high and I think he can work well with our pitching coaches and if he he should want to come here if he wants to win. And I will also say in regards to Amay and I’m at the territory I I don’t I’m not I don’t believe in I don’t I’m not really like a big gambler just cuz I don’t I hate losing uh and like so I I lose a lot when I gamble so I hate that. I’d put money on a my being a Yankee like I’m at that territory. I’ I’d put money on it. Um, and I I’ll also say this with an eye. Um, and this is kind of what I’m hearing and and I I don’t this is not like firm firm solid, which is why I’m just kind of dropping it in here. What I’m kind of getting is that Hal is a big pusher for this, too. That Hal, this is not like Cashman going, “Hal, please, bro, please, bro, please let me get this guy.” It’s more like Cashman’s like, “Hey, our our guys like him. Uh, our front office thinks that this is a pitcher who can really help us.” And Hal’s like, “Dude, I really want to get back in the Japanese market. I want this. I I I think the Yankees there are too many things that they want to do that fit this. There are just so many things they want. They want to improve their pitching staff. I don’t think there’s another starter on the market they’re going to give big money to if it’s not ami. I think they just skip out on the starting pitching market almost entirely. I know that there are some trade opportunities out there potentially, but even then I I I do question like the strength of their farm system in some of these deals just because they did trade a lot of their depth at the deadline. Not sure how aggressive they’re going to be in trading prospects this off seasonason. Uh that would have to be something I have to kind of dig into. But um I just feel like Amay’s their Amay is their guy. No QO. Uh could stretch the AV, which they love doing and and give him like seven years because he’s that contract would expire when he’s 34, I think. Yeah, sure. Whatever. You want to pay a 34 year old 20some million dollars a year in 2030ome? That’s nothing by then. I mean, that’s that’s going to be that’s going to be the going rate for Frankie Montases and Luis Everino reclamation projects by that point in time. So, um, I just think it makes sense. And as you mentioned, the suitors, and I don’t even think this is a matter of the market not liking Emi. It’s more so the Dodgers don’t have a need for starting pitching and MI doesn’t want to be there. Um, the Mets, I I think they’re probably the team I would look at the most right now, just from the standpoint of need, fit, linked to him. Uh, I know Martino said it’s not like a fullcourt press, but still being linked and interested, opportunistic, perhaps opportunistic teams get players. We just talked about the Yankees with Kyle Tucker. Um, the Phillies I think they I mean I don’t really think they’re going to be that in the Red Sox. I would have actually had the Red Sox pretty good on this list if they didn’t just trade for Sunny Gray. Um, and even with the Mets going back to this, they have Sena. And it just came out that Sanga doesn’t want to go. And he approached the Mets and he’s like, “Hey, I I prefer to stay.” If am I serious about not wanting to play with another Japanese player? Kind of hard for me to see him going to the Mets over the Yankees who quite literally have not had a Japanese player in over a decade. Like he or excuse me, I’ve not signed a Japanese player in over a decade. not had one in what is it five years now is his Tanaka was 2020 so dude it’s been a while long that was a long time ago and I also think about the Mets I think Sterns he’s not typically the guy that gives out those long starting pitching contracts in the past but who knows maybe maybe things have changed maybe he’s going to learn how to spend some money which I think he needs to learn to do to become a good executive but uh yeah I definitely don’t think there’s anything obvious maybe the Red Sox if they uh if they really go all in here uh into this rotation because they I think they could use another starting pitcher But again, like I don’t think I don’t know if John Henry is willing to pay another 20 to $25 million per year for another starting pitcher after just moving for Sunny. Maybe they’re going to be pursuing a scubble next off season once he hits the market and that’s why they traded for the one year of Sunny. So, who knows? And it’s interesting uh and Chris, I don’t mean to cut you off here, but I just want to also add with the Red Sox. Do your thing. Um it also came out they don’t really want to go that much further beyond the first threshold. It’s really funny because I think the team getting the most flak in the American League East for spending is the Yankees. And I’m confident they’re going to end up with the highest payroll in that group. The Blue Jays are going to spend. The Blue Jays are going to be aggressive in spending, but like I don’t know if you guys have seen this kind of like stuff on social media where it’s like, yeah, they have more money than the Yankees. Have am I wrong for saying like have the Blue Jays ever had a higher payroll than the Yankees in the franchise’s history? I don’t think so. No, sir. It it may be like in those early 90s years. It’s possible because they were really good. good. The Yankees were not very good. I guess that’s a possibility, but like the the Yankees have never been outspent by the Blue Jays and it’s not like a Met situation either where a new shiny owner came in and has kind of changed the culture. Uh Roger Center and that ownership group there, Rogers in that ownership group, like they have tons of money. They actually have more money than the Yankees in terms of net worth. But I think people need to be very careful with using net worth to determine how much money you actually have. I think that’s very much a you are not very financially literate if that’s how you feel about money or that’s how you think money works. Um that is not your liquidated assets. It’s not the assets. They did not get rich off of the Toronto Blue Jays. They got rich off of things that are not the Toronto Blue Jays and then are spending on the Toronto Blue Jays. So I think it’s a little bit different. Not to say the Blue Jays aren’t going to spend, but like I don’t know. I I I’ve kind of gotten this they’ve inc the Yankees have increased payroll in each of the last five years. I I’m I’m someone who’s critical of how uh and I don’t shy away from like when I think he needs to be criticized, I will say something. It just kind of feels weird that there’s this energy of they’re not going to increase payroll, they’re going to cut payroll. And that has been a thing said for 5 years and has not been true for 5 years. The last time it was true, Masiro Tanaku was a Yankee. The Yankees actually did have a Japanese player on their team. So like Chris, and this is where I wanted to pass it off to you here, like why do you think that’s the case? Why do you think people are so like far gone from what’s actually happened versus what they think will happen financially? Well, I think a lot of it is frustration, right? Like frustration like the lack of titles and then like the I I’ve seen this kind of not to bring my other work into this, but like from the Urban Meyer era, it’s like the further you get away from something and the further you get away from winning, you start to sens sensationalize things and then like kind of like change how the how the past went and how you know, you start to rewrite rewrite history a little bit. And I think that’s kind of what we’re seeing a little bit because I think the the easiest thing to criticize Hal about is oh like won’t spend, won’t spend, won’t spend. And once that’s said enough times and then you compare him to like how George was, it becomes like the easy sticking point. And you hear narratives like this kind of run wild. I mean it’s the same thing with like you know people talk about kind of you know the Yankees playing in a little league ballpark. Like enough people say it and it’ll stick across multiple fan bases. So, it’s really just like basic narrative driving because we’re we’re moving further and f further away from that 09 year and further and further away from like when when George you know was in charge and you know, Daddy Warbucks and like, you know, get give me everybody um type of mentality. So, I I think that’s all it is, Ryan. And and you know, people who I guess cover the sport, I think have a better pulse on it than some of the stuff we hear on social media. Yeah. Based on what I just looked up, uh, the Blue Jays had a higher payroll than us in 1992, 1993, and 1995. And I don’t think they’ve had one higher than us since then. So, never in my life have the Blue Jays spent more more money on payroll than the Yankees. I want to also like that’s an insane shadow. I mean, it’s not really that insane of a shout that it’s pretty logical to assume that when they were good and the Yankees were not good, they spent more. That’s actually I I can’t even give myself really a pat on the back for that one. But no, like no, none of us have been alive for that. It’s not even just like not not a single person doing this podcast has been alive for that. No one who’s in rotation, Alex, Sam, they’ve never been alive for that. So I I mean it’s it’s something where again I just think it’s fear-mongering. It’s kind of like at every deadline it’s the Yankees are going to do nothing and then deadline passes and they’re one of the more active teams or they had one of the better deadlines and you’re like, “Oh wow, okay, they did something.” Um and it just gets wiped away that memory very quickly. It’s very short memory and again with the Dodgers being having more financial firepower than the Yankees and the Mets having more financial firepower than the Yankees that is like frustrating. I I think it is something to be that is something to be upset about. That’s fair. I I think it’s fair to be upset that you’re a Yankee fan, you’ve spent your whole life being the top dogs and now like when Tariq Terrick school hits the market, you’re not even going to feel like you’re the top team financially to get him. And that that sucks. That’s not great. Um but I think there’s a difference between being upset about that and thinking you’re not going to spend, right? I think that’s that’s like there’s like a there’s a big med there’s a big gap between being the Pirates and the Dodgers, guys. You know what I mean? There’s a big gap between Hey, there’s a big gap between being the Red Sox and the Dodgers. You are significantly better at spending at at making sure you spend money than the Red Sox are. It’s not even close. If I was a Red Sox fan, I’d be so furious these past few years. Like trading away mookie bets. Like I I could go on about I know this has been said a million times, but I could go on about that forever. It’s a ridiculous thing to do. And like John Henry is probably just as if not more wealthy than the Steinbrers based on he he owns like Liverpool like everything he owns with Fenway Sports Group. Like he’s he has so much money and like you just said he’s not if he’s not willing to go over the first uh much higher than the first threshold and it’s like he doesn’t he clearly doesn’t want to win as much as we do. So I mean that’s perfect. That’s good for us. Again, it’s one of those things where I think you have to do comparative analysis when it comes to spending. You can’t just you have to compare across the league. And that’s for both. Hey, they’re not the Dodgers and that might not be that that may not be good enough to win to to to win at the rate you want to win at consistently. But in the same vein, you’re you’re you’ve got to criticize does not mean to be inaccurate. Just because you’re critical and you know to be inaccurate the criticism, it just falls flat. That’s how I kind of view it with that. Um, now moving away from free agency and those kinds of conversations. I want to talk about Cam Schlitler because Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News dropped an article where he did an interview with Cam Schlitler. It was a really fun article to read and perhaps the golden gem of the news cycle, you could argue for the last 24 hours is that Cam Schlitler is adding either a change up or a splitter. We’re going to start with and that’s baseball here because um I I know you have you’re very opinionated. I know you and Chris are going to be very opinionated about this. I’m really excited to get into this. Talk to me about Cam Schlitler. What would you think? What do you think of him adding a change up or splitter? I mean, I think that’s like the last pretty much the last bastion that he has to cover. Like I I know he’s only done it for what, like 12, 13 starts so far, but you look at like I’m going to pull up his uh I’m going to pull up his pitch chart right now. There’s a big gaping hole in that bottom right quadrant for him. He does not have anything that dives uh down and away from lefties. And that’s the biggest issue I see from him uh as someone who’s watched all of his starts. He had he can get the righties out. He can go up and in with the with the four seamer and then dive away with the uh the curve and the cutter. But with lefties, it’s it’s really he just jams them in with the cutter, in with the cutter, in with the cutter, up with the fast ball. And there’s really no other option there. If he can develop that pitch that that dies that goes uh like the dead fish change up that flops away from the lefty batters, they’re going to be waving that thing at that thing all day. And I think we all saw it this year. There was definitely times where he got ahead in the counts to lefties and he just couldn’t put them away. If he can add that pitch and start putting the lefties away, this guy can be a top 10 starting pitcher in baseball. I don’t want to get that far ahead of myself because who knows if he could throw it. Like there’s a It’s not like adding a pitch in a video game. You don’t just like spawn in with it one day. Some guys just don’t have the arm motion to be able to throw certain pitches. Maybe he’ll never be able to to throw a good change up. Maybe he’ll never be able to throw a good splitter without it uh without it being an issue for him. But if he can just throw an adequate change up or an adequate splitter and only use it for lefties, then that just adds a whole another dimension that they have to look out for when they’re up at the plate. So, I mean, this guy’s already I’m not he’s not he’s not a complete product and he was already pretty damn good this year. If he can add that pitch, there’s not that much more he needs to do to become an ace. I mean, doesn’t that unlock the unlimited upside? And like isn’t this all also like one of the kind of the least surprising things? I mean, he was a guy that obviously I mean not a lot of people had high on the radar entering last year. Kind of got fasttracked because of how good he was in the minor leagues. Then obviously got the bump up and and pitched really really well. But like when you talk about kind of the one hole like that baseball said it is it is right there. And and for me it’s so funny cuz like beforehand like coming up like in college he was a guy that was more of a pitchable guy. Like pitchability mattered to him. um that kind of like unlocked the velocity which makes me feel good about like where him and Matt Blake could be because I think that like he wants to be a pitcher’s pitcher and like him kind of discovering this velocity it was something that I think it was important for the Yankees okay we’re not going to tinker it with during the season obviously he won’t guy been effective enough as is and we really can’t afford for him not to be good um but if he if he figures it out Doug like like top 10 yeah like we’re talking about someone who you know has as a as a rookie like give G give g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g g given us one of the the all-time great starts in Yankee playoff history. We’re talking about someone who, you know, in in a game against the Red Sox and against Tampa Bay two separate times, we didn’t see a three ball count till the sixth inning. Like like we’re talking about someone who like with this I guess limited repertoire already has been hyper effective at the big league level and now he’s got Matt Blake. I mean not like and that’s baseball said like not a lot of guys like you have to have the feel for it and that’s really important. You have to be able to throw it with your arm motion. got to figure out like, you know, which which way or turnover, but a a splitter in particular for him would be like outrageous. Yo, I think I’m hoping for the splitter, happy with a change up, too. Splitter is because it’s platoon neutral, and his results last year, he’s actually better against lefties and righties results-wise. Um, and I think the reason for that is because of how a force works, riding at the top of the zone, that’s just more effective against lefties as a putaway pitch. Um, but you did see those long counts against both lefties and righties where they could just spoil spoil spoil spoil spoil. And the change up fixes some of that issue. And if it’s a splitter, you can throw it against righties and lefties. And you can you can legit just spam a splitter on two strike counts and just say it’s 02 splitter. And if you don’t swing at it, cool, something else. We’ll throw something else or we’ll throw a splitter again. Um, and I think in the case of Cam Schlitler, I mean, I don’t know if people are truly aware of like the upside here. When we look at stuff plus guys who were through at least 70 innings as starting pitchers this past year it’s Hunter Green, Yuri Perez, Garrett Crochet, Trick Scooble. Only four guys with a higher stuff plus than him and those guys are not to call them stuff monsters kind of feels like underelling it. These guys are freaks. These guys are freaks. Hunter Green’s a freak. Yuri Perez is a freak. Garrick Crochet is a freak. TK Scubble’s a freak. He’s in the category with Christopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, Jacob Deg Grom, Spencer Schwelenbach, who I know isn’t like a big SP like big sexy name, but I think he’s really damn good and he’s got a big big mix. Um I I kind of look at like Jack Lighter’s kick change up and think that’s something that Schlitler can implement. It’s actually not a really refined change up, but it had really good results because if you look at his uh pitch chart and pitch plot, same issue. Close the change up and he’s got nothing else that goes down in a way to uh left-handed batters. Um, it’s a pretty hard change up. It doesn’t have a ton of vertical separation off uh or excuse me, it does have a good amount of vertical separation. I apologize. Um, it doesn’t have uh a big velocity separation, but it’s got the movement, it drops, it’s got the action you’re looking for. Um, and because of that, it’s very effective. And I think with Schlitler, um, he just he got so good at not relying on the four seamer by postseason time. It was, hey, I can throw the sinker. He actually threw his four seamer, I think, like 40ish% in the postseason. up up the sinker usage, up the cutter usage. You you throw a change in that mix, you got five pitches you can rely upon if you throw the curveball onto that as well. He also has two cutter shapes. So, it’s five pitches, but really it’s six shapes. That is a pitcher who has the stuff, the mix, and hopefully at some point the command consistently on a start to start basis where yeah, that’s an ace. When we talk about like the the check box for me, raw stuff, um, pitch mix and command, you have you check those three boxes, you’re an ace and and very rare that’s not an ace. Right. Right. And I I want to say he he was working on the splitter last spring. That was something that he was trying to get in there. He said he’s naturally a superator, so he was having a tough time kind of pronating that pitch down on the splitter side. So I think it it could be change up, but I’m I’m with you, Ryan. I’m I’m hoping for splitter. Yeah, I definitely think like I look at his metrics right now and it’s like he’s he’s already really close to being a really good pitcher. Like you saw you saw progression as he pitched throughout this past season. He went from double A to by the postseason he was our best pitcher. Like if that guy if he’s if he’s going to progress continue progressing at this rate next year, he’s probably going to improve the command. he’s probably going to improve the stuff then like this guy’s gonna be really good by next season and this pitch is the key to unlocking that extra level of dominance and I definitely think like and you said he he started he tried to move off the four seamer a little bit in the in the postseason just to to get guys off of it. I think the change up or change up or split or whatever it is is the perfect pitch for that because then he’s got 98 99 and you just can’t sit on it anymore if you have another pitch that can just trick you like that. Yeah. And again, this the the guy has insane outlier velocity and he doesn’t we the sinker kind of proved it. It’s not it’s not a matter of getting elite pitch shapes. It’s just a matter of getting different looks. It’s just about the shapes being different from other pitches in his repertoire. It’s just that it’s just as as Andatball uh mentioned, it’s just looking at that pitch plot and going, “Hey, where are we not right now?” And we just got to find something that gets there. And it doesn’t have to be great. It can be it can be the most mediocre decent not great change up on the planet and it’s going to be an effective pitch because it’s there because it is a weapon. The year of the mix has taught I think a lot of people in the baseball world that an average pitch is still an still an additional pitch to your repertoire. You’d rather have um three great pitches and an average pitch than three great pitches just because at this point the average pitch gives you a little more deception. Mhm. I wouldn’t be surprised if we look back this time next year, if he starts throwing one of these pitches, if he’s comfortable enough to add it full time, uh if we look back this time and we see you look at the change up or split or whatever it is, and you see the results aren’t good with it, but the fast ball results might get better because of it. And that’s all it’s going to come down to. It’s literally about all everything uh being cohesive. It’s going to be one a as one pitcher getting guys off of the fast ball will make him better. He’ll be able to get more whiffs high in the strike zone. He’ll be able to to do more uh move the fast ball around more if he has that that threat. Just the threat of it. Yeah. Show me the show me part of it, right? Like obviously like if like you said like cohesive is like if you can use to throw off the timing and make the fast more more effective. Good. Do it. I also want to kind of wrap up the Schlitler conversation by giving by kind of putting everybody here on the spot. Um, if you were to rank Cam Schlitler among starting pitchers going into 2026, where are your You don’t have to give me an exact number. I think that’s not really particularly a good way to do rankings. You should kind of give a range. I think give me a range where you’re putting Cam Schlitler. Uh, do you want me to start because I can I can kind of buy you guys some time here. Wait, before you start, I have a question. Is this like projecting where we think he’ll end up next year or what? Wait, so by the So we’re projecting what he’ll be at the end of next year, right? because you’re essentially saying like, hey, his value he’s going to end up being this kind of pitcher. So, going into like for the 2026 season essentially, what do you think he’s going to be? Um, so that’s kind of how I viewed it. I don’t know if that is different from what, but I think it’s similar enough. I just want to double check cuz I I I have my answer. I you know, and that’s baseball has his answer, too. So, I think I I mean, I almost want to place odds on who has them at the highest range. You know, who I feel like I’m going to be I don’t know if I’m going to be too low or too or or like right in the middle. Yeah. I I said top 30, top 25, that range for where I think he gets to because the stuff again there like there are just not like the guys they listed Green Perez, Crochet, Scooble, Sanchez, uh Schlitler, Ras Muin’s here, but if he had more volume, he’d be a lock for top 20, top 25 rankings, Wheeler, Freed, Deg Grom. There you cannot argue that any of these guys on a per rate basis are not a top 20 starter in baseball. You cannot make that argument. So I’m going to put Schlitler in that top 25. I’m going to dink him a little bit. Say top 25 to 30. Yeah, I think I’m in the similar range. I I was just like looking at the pitching leaderboards for this past year. I think top 30 uh the 30th ranked starting pitcher was 3.1 F. And I definitely think that’s within Schlitler’s uh like reasonable outcomes for next season. Uh obviously it’s going to depend a lot on volume. Is he able is going to be able to stay healthy? This guy’s added a ton of velocity over the last couple of years. So, if he’s able to stay healthy and he’s able to continue progressing as a pitcher, I definitely think he’s at least a three- war player with a astronomical ceiling. See this? And this is why I asked the question to you guys beforehand because like I think right now I have him like in that top 30 range. I think by the end of next year, I think he’ll he’ll be slightly better than top 25. And I’m tempted like here we go. if he if he figures out his off speed pitch is like I feel like what the projection is cuz like if we if we get the off speed either split it or change him I would say top 20 but I I think price you know I’ll go I’ll go top 20 by the end of next year I’ll go top 20 pitcher and again projecting wise like right now probably closer to top 30 but by the end and next year we’re talking about him as a top 20 pitcher. Yeah, I think it’s I think again, you know, when we talk about kind of looking forward at pitchers. If you if we end up missing on this and he’s worse than that, I’m going to be fine with how I how I looked at this. This guy has outlier stuff. I’m going to put it like if I said Yuri Perez going to be a top 25 starter next year if healthy and he wasn’t and he was healthy. I’m not mad at myself for that at all. I look at that and go, “Oh, well, you know, [ __ ] happens.” Uh is what it is. never gonna I I think stuff looking at stuff and looking at the strikeout stuff that’s way more important than erra or even like pedigree I’d even argue I think pedigree is a little bit overrated in this regard. Um, but as we kind of shift into uh the final topic here, it’s regarding Hang on, hang on, hang on. Can I get one more one more note in on Schlitler? Uh, I want to ask you guys a question. If you could improve, if if you could do one of two things with Schlitler in the next uh for next season, would you improve his command or add that off speed pitch? If you could only choose one, I’m adding the offspe pitch. You’re adding the off speed. You You’d still you take like a What was his walk rate this year? You would take a 10% walk rate again if he has the offsp speed pitch. I’d take it because a good off speed pitch is the strikers are going to go even higher. So I I I’m I’m okay with the I’m okay with and I know Ryan hates walks. This question was more geared for Ryan than it was for me. I I think I’m taking the command. And it’s not just the walks. Uh so look at his first five MLB starts. Location plus is 91. Uh RA 4.38. FIP 5.93. This was the struggle Schlitler starts. the starts where he’s hanging a cutter and giving up a home run in the first inning every time. Every inning is a battle. You’re shocked he’s only given up two runs through five innings. You’re stunned. You’re stunned at it. Um and then the last nine starts 101 location plus. So slightly above average, not elite, but above average command. Uh erra of 2.23, FIP of 2.62, strikeout to walk percentage, it is a whopping 21.2%. So he was I mean he was an ace once the command when the command was good. Not great, good, he was an ace. Okay. What do what do you think is the real him though? The the the first part with the command is a 91 or the 101 like what what is closer to him? Like I guess I think like the final number was a location plus of 98. I I’d say that’s currently the real him. Um if he can get if he’s a league average locator of his stuff because it’s so good. He’ll get whiffs. He’ll get whiffs. I mean he was a what 50% four seam usage guy for the season and his fast ball had like a 27% whiff. There are not a lot of 50% one fastball shape guys in this league anymore. Garrick Cole when he was, you know, pitching in 24 was no longer that. Even in 23, he stopped doing that. I mean, is there is there a is there a guy is there a guy I’m missing who’s like a he throws this one fastball shape 50% of the time or more and is a dominant starting pitcher in this league? Um, I think the only examples of this are I mean I think Deg Grom was close and it was 46%. Woo was 47%. Ryan was 51%. Peralta is 53.5%. I don’t know if I called Peralta like dominant. Like I wouldn’t consider him do I think he’s good but not dominant if that makes sense. I don’t know if I’m if I’m underrating him. I think he’s more of a number two than ace. Yeah. So like his Grom’s the closest probably No, Woo is the closest thing to it. Woo is the closest thing to this is my one fastball shape that I throw almost 50% of the time. And Brian Woo is that’s an outlier and that’s not even 50% of the time. Cam Schlitler was a 55% fourseam usage guy and his four seamer had a 28 27.8% whiff rate. That is dude that is how freakishly good that fast ball is with reliable command of that pitch on a start to start basis and a repertoire he feels more comfortable throwing even if he doesn’t have the change up. That is I think a number two starter at minimum at right there at minimum. That’s that’s how I view it. I could but I I do think it’ll be interesting to see how that works in 2026. Yeah, I agree. I think I would take the command first and then hopefully add a change up somewhere along along the line. Like I look at him, I’m like, if you get this walk, he’s a 10% walk guy this past year. If you get this walk rate down to 87% and then you also improve his command within the zone slightly, he’s already uh within the top 30 pitchers. Then you add a off p if you add off speed pitch on top of that, that’s top 15 possibly. Like I don’t know, the the the ceiling is limitless with this guy. And and then you brought up Garrett Cole. could be like it’s such an easy comparison to make because he’s already like he’s learning under Garrick Cole right now. He has the young Garrick Cole’s stuff like I I it’s impossible not to get giddy thinking about the possibilities here. It should be noted Garrick Cole never really figured out that change up. He he he actually started to get it in 21 with attack and then lost attack lost it. Started to get it a little bit towards the end of the World Series and then tears his UCL. So anytime Garrett Cole starts to find his change up the baseball gods just realize it’s broken. It’s like no no chance. Can’t let that happen. Got to do something immediately at step in and fix that. Um but with with Cam Schlitler the secondaries because the command thing for me is the secondaries too. It’s like if the cutter is located well the shape’s gross. The curveball good shape. The sinker the shape isn’t good but the results were good cuz it’s 97.5. Like that is stupid. And it the sweeper in this as well. He doesn’t feel comfortable throwing a sweeper. But if he ever felt comfortable throwing it that’s a different shape. It’s a different shape from the rest of his repertoire. moves more laterally than the cutter. I just I I I kind of just look at this and go I think with better command he would be a 50 a 45% fast ball four seam guy and that version of Cam Schlitler is a I’m going to say it’s it’s the best pitcher on the Yankees and it’s a top 10 pitcher on the planet for from August until the end of the the Yankees season. Cam Schlit was the best pitcher on the New York Yankees and that was because he got better doing that. I definitely think when the first month he was up or so like you watch the games he had a lot of games where I don’t know if it was nerves or I don’t know if it was something mechanical but he was missing for Seamer he was missing too high and then the the cutter he was missing everything up and he was hanging it over the plate a lot and you could tell like he has the stuff but he hasn’t put it together but then like within two months he puts everything all together and it’s like get this guy a whole year up here let’s see what he could do. Yeah, for sure. For sure. Is there any final things we want to touch on with Cam Flip before we move on? All righty. So, we’re going to move on. We’re going to talk about I I think we’re just going to kind of keep this to just Dax Kilby for the top 10 prospect rankings because he’s the guy who has the most helium to him. Uh Baseball America dropped their top 10 prospect rankings for the New York Yankees. And Dax Kilby, the 2025, not 2024, 2025 first round pick, so just selected a few months ago out of high school was ranked number three in their system. And because he’s behind uh George Lombard Jr. and Elmer Rodriguez, that is Baseball America essentially telling you, hey, we think he’s a bubble top 100 prospect straight out of the draft as a guy who was selected outside of the top 30. So Dax Kilby had a really strong single A showing. It was only 18 games, but the contact rates were elite. The uh batted ball data, it was really good qu contact quantity and contact quality, which is a rare combination for guys these young uh this young. He’s only 19 years old. Um, I’m going to say this right now. Dax Kilby is a top 100 prospect. Dax Kilby will end up being a top 50 prospect by May, June. He’s that good. He’s that talented. Um, I’ve I I I’ve never kind of been the guy who tries to be like higher on these newer kids and put some some crazy expectation on, and I’m not going to put some star expectation on Kilby, but he’s got all the makings of a star prospect for sure. It is pretty ridiculous that he can do what he does. uh from a contact quantity and quality standpoint. Chris, we’ll start with you. Why do you think Baseball America and the prospect world has started to catch on with Kilby so quickly? I mean, you said it like contact quality and quantity um both check check boxes and like obviously like like coming straight from high school, he’s playing with guys like two, three years older than him already and you know, proven to be really really effective. I think a lot of people didn’t think that the uh the power would play the way it is in terms of like hard hit rate and he’s kind of shown that off. I mean, he’s a guy, Ryan, that you and I have talked about. He’s going to be the top prospect in the Yankees farm at some point, and it’s probably going to be after the graduation of guys like Lombard, but like that’s kind of the direction we’re heading. Um, I’m really excited about him obviously like like excited for him to kind of start his graduation up so we can get like more data on him. But, I mean, he’s checked every box right now and has been far better than you could have hoped for for a kid literally going from facing high school pitching to professional pitching. again, no co no college years, no buffer years, just straight to draft to uh to the minors. So, uh it’s been exciting and I don’t want to put like the crazy expectations on them. I do know that there’s going to be that natural like, you know, middle infielder, contact guy. You’re going to get some of the the ridiculous conversations here over the next like probably like year or two. Um but, you know, he’s he’s coming along much quicker than I even would have thought if they drafted him. And I I’ll kind of leave it at that. I definitely think when you look at an 18-year-old coming right out of high school, the fact that he he hit 350 in an Aball, like obviously it’s bad inflated, but he didn’t strike out very much facing pro guys. He took his walks and it’s very limited sample size. He’s very young. We don’t really know. Next year is going to be a big indicator of where he actually is once we actually get a bigger sample. But the hit tool coming along so quickly in that in that small sample is probably the most important thing that you wanted to see from him cuz this guy he’s 18 years old, just turned 19 uh this past month. Uh he’s listed at 621 190 and hopefully you can grow that into more of a powerful hitter uh in the next few years. So I’m not really his power numbers aren’t there. He had zero homers this year, but that maybe the the Yankees like his frame, how expected to fill out a little bit and maybe that’s something that uh we can look for in the next couple of years as he rises through the uh the minors. And all I know from him, I I haven’t seen him play in person obviously, but the video I’ve seen from him, his followrough looks just like Ben Rice’s. So, if you can turn this guy into a Ben Rice light who can play up the middle, I don’t know if he projects. I I don’t think he’s going to play shortstop for us, right? He’s going to play short. They don’t think he has the athleticism or the arm talent, too. I’m holding off on it just cuz like he’s still 18 like 19 now. So, like I don’t I don’t know how he’s going to like develop athletically, but no, a lot of people think he’ll he’ll end up moving off of of short. Now, obviously there’s conversations, can he even play second? Maybe maybe a corner guy rather than middle guy. I mean, he’s incredibly fast, so maybe there’s a a route to him to play center field in the future. If this guy’s a center field, like if he’s if he’s like 50 50 to 60% of Ben Rice’s power, uh, and has a good hit tool and plays center field and has that speed, that’s an incredible player. So, I’m excited for the ceiling. I definitely want to see more. I don’t want to get too ahead of myself here. He’s still very young. He has 81 played appearances at Aball. I definitely think uh we need to calm down. But if the evaluators, the guys who do this for a living are already putting him up into that top three prospect on the Yankees range, they’re seeing something they like. So, I definitely think it’s worth keeping an eye on this next season. You mentioned the ceiling. Um, I’m also intrigued by the floor. I think the hit tool also raises the floor a little bit and that I think also excites me. I mean, we’ve seen so many of these Yankee prospects, it’s been so much like like boom or bust, right? It’s like, you know, you hear years of like, oh, Spencer Jones, he could be great or he could be unplayable. And it’s nice to to to you know for in their farm for you know a couple of the the next group to be guys who have pretty decent floors too as as well as the ceiling. So just to just to add to it I also want to kind of note here Dax Kilby when I spoke to mentioned Christian Yelich is someone that he’s modeled his game after and um Yellish 63 203. Uh Kilby listed I think at 6’2 uh under 200 lb but 19 years old. There is time for him to fill out that frame. Yelich is very much that, you know, throughout his career, he was pretty good contact quality in terms of average exit velocity, but had to learn how to at least get the ball in the air a little bit more. But even with high ground ball rates, he was a really damn good hitter. Um I I think we could see I think like Miami Christian is kind of what I I I kind of hope for uh here. Uh that is that good not dominant hitter. Not the Brewers version where he was winning MVPs and probably could have gone back to should have gone back to back if he stayed healthy. Um in that 19 year I think it was. Yes. 19. Yes. Yes. Yes. Um those Miami years though like Yelich was a beast offensively. He wasn’t a star but he was a beast. He was he was pretty good. High average, high on base, low strikeout rate. Uh, I think that’s kind of what Dax Kilby’s kind of that’s like what the ideal MLB like if things go right it’s a 120ish WRC plus hitter who’s more centered on average on base with good enough power. Yeah. Hey, maybe even play him in left field be like another our our generation’s version of Gardner. That’d be pretty sick. But like I’m looking at his batted ball right now. He’s high ground ball. He is very comparable in Yelich. He does he pulls a little bit more in Yelich. He’s high ground ball, highline drive, low fly ball. So, I don’t expect the uh the home runs to just come in out of nowhere. But if he could be a gap to gap, doubles, triples guy, then that’s enough power production as long as he keeps the hit tool up and he gets on base. It’s another kind of example I’d like to throw out is like if DJ Lehey was left-handed where DJ LaHu also had good exit velocity numbers, but the other contact quality metrics lagged behind because he didn’t hit the ball in the air enough um for it to translate into uh high home run totals year in and year out. But the uh if he I think if LaMu stayed healthy, I think 2022 showed that if he stayed healthy throughout his contract, he would have been a better player for the Yankees. Um I don’t believe that the juice balls were the only reason why he was good at baseball. I do think that he’s down with the Rockies. Uh that 22-year that kind of approach of I hit the ball hard. I don’t hit the ball in the air a lot, but I still hit the ball hard can work. Especially when you’re talking about Kilby, who’s a much better athlete than I think you ever was as well. Yeah, that’s what I was going to bring up. I mean like that. I think Baseball America in their article said like he’s the best athlete in the Yankees organization speedwise. So I mean you if you get a fast DJ Lameu like that’s that’s a hell of a player right there. So yeah and we’ll see. I mean again very far away from the big leagues not really close but I would put him in high A. He started in single A. I know it was 18 games but I would put him in high A. I would challenge him. Single A was a joke to him and he’s facing a lot of guys who played in four years of college. Uh but single A was a joke to him. Go put him in high A. Even if even if you have to spend the whole year there struggling and learning how to play there, that’s fine with me. Um I don’t think this has to be a scenario where you’re trying to find the next um 20-year-old rookie phenom. I think you just have to make sure you produce a good ball player. And you know, I I think that’s got to be the Yankees priority. That’s always I I don’t really believe in um you’ve got to push guys while they’re young only and try and like find you’re not going to find a superstar in the draft most likely, especially with the Yankees draft. It’s very hard to find the next Hall of Famer with the 34th, fifth something overall pick, but you can find some pretty good players and the Yankees have done a good job at that. Hopefully, Kilby is another uh name on that list of better draft picks for the Yankees over the last few years. Guys, any final notes on Kilby or just anything we talked about in general? I mean, I would love to see Kilby in the spring breakout game this year. I would too. I would too. I I do I will say Spencer Jones in that spring breakout game in 24 was probably the biggest fake out of all time. I thought that was the start of just oh he’s gonna be a big leager by the end of the year. He was he played all throughout that spring, didn’t he? And then he had he had that string he had the string of like I think it was like 80 pitches in a row without a like 80 swings without a whiff or something ridiculous. And everyone was like, “Oh my god, he fixed the whiff problem. This is going to be so great.” And he struck out 38% of the time that season. So I was like, “Ah, that was an all time.” That spring breakout game was was insane, man. That was awesome. I I I’m so upset they didn’t have it with Statcast this past year. The Yankees have played a two pretty good games. They lost the second one against the Orioles, but they got walked off. It was a good baseball game and that was secretly the breakout of Lraange. Like that was when Lraange kind of pronounced or announced himself on the scene. I was there. He hit 104 on the stadium gun. It was pretty crazy. Um but yeah, man. Chris, is any final thoughts you have? No, sir. All righty. Well, uh look, we appreciate you guys sticking through to the end of this podcast. If you like this video, make sure you like and subscribe again. Turn on that notification bell to get notifications on our next uploads. You guys can also check out our social media pages. Uh that’s Fireside Yankees on Instagram, Tik Tok, Twitter, Facebook, and again this YouTube page. Uh links to our personal work will be in the descriptions below. And that’s baseball. Chris obviously I mean if you’re a college football fan, you you kind of need to know what’s going on with Chris and what he’s doing because uh Chris is on an alltime run right. He’s on his 2018 LeBron run right now with uh the uh Ohio and Michigan rivalry. And uh I know it’s not baseball season in terms of act regular season action, but I think the offseason is where you can get creative with a lot of video content cuz you don’t have to worry about it aging poorly. I don’t know how and that baseball if that’s accurate, but I kind of always feel like that’s a good time to do that. Yeah, I’ve got a I’ve got a big Angels project coming out probably after probably sometime next week. So yeah, I’m excited for that and and the people should be ready ready for that. Yeah, I can’t wait. It’s Oh, I got I get so mad in that video. I hate Arty Marino. I hate him with a passion. The Angels, I think, are the most frustrating franchise in baseball because they actually have money. And like the Pirates, they’ve been the top half of the pay of the league in payroll in the last like 15 years every single year. And they have they have the longest playoff drought. They have the longest playoff drought in MLB. They had Mike Trout, Show Otani, and Albert Puh Holes on one team and they won like 76 games. This team is oh my it’s it’s so incompetent top to bottom everything. You can make a real argument that three of the four best players of the 21st century played for the Angels. Yeah, it could have been Judge if he if he got the offer out of four. It would be really funny if Aaron Yeah, that would have been really funny. But they’ve ended up they’ve they’ve they’ve drafted one of them, signed the other out of Japan and then signed the other in in free agency and that wasn’t a good contract, but is what it is. Anywh who, uh yeah, we but if you guys want to check out our personal work again, that’ll be in the link in the description below. We appreciate you guys so much for tuning in. We’ll see you guys in the next one. Peace out everybody.

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Intro: (00:00)
Kyle Tucker Has NO SUITORS? (02:00)
Tatsuya Imai Feels Like a Yankee (23:42)
Cam Schlittler’s NEW Weapon (36:12)
Yankees Have a SURGING Prospect (54:25)
Outro: (1:04:23)