Buffalo Sabres are in the playoff race because of how bad the Atlantic Division is

Buffalo Sabres are in the playoff race because of how bad the Atlantic Division is

Diving in on the NHL standings, the Sabres have actually made up some ground in the last couple of weeks. We’ll tell you how much and how close they can get in the next couple of days coming up here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. Your Locked On Sabres, your daily podcast on the Buffalo Sabres, part of the Locked On podcast network. Your team every day. What is up everybody and welcome in to this edition of the Locked On Sabers podcast. Thanks for making us your first listen every day here on the Locked on Podcast Network, the number one sports podcast network. You can listen to our show wherever you get your podcast. That includes Spotify. It is Spotify Rap Day. Also, Apple Music has something similar as well. So, if you listen on either one of those platforms and you’re getting those numbers today, how many minutes listen where the show might rank in your top five, if it is in your top five, send that along. We’d love to see that. And um if you’re in the text club, you could send it there as well. Twitter, uh thanks to everybody for listening throughout the year. Another great year even though we did not get a playoff birth. And uh eventually we will get one of those hopefully. So Spotify, Apple Podcast, Odyssey, wherever you may get your podcast. You could also watch the show on YouTube. Reminder there. Like and subscribe if you enjoy it there. And you can be a part of our locked sabers text club if you’re not already at joins subtext.com/lockedoners. Sneaky Joe Debbasi. Today’s episode is presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. If you want to be right in the middle of the action all season long, visit fanuel.com. Place your NFL live bets all season long. We are talking to you on a game day. We got a Sabres and Flyers matchup. The first of a bunch of road games in a row for the Buffalo Sabres. They will go out west following this game. You get one in the East against an Eastern Conference opponent that at the moment sits in the final spot in the playoffs by wildcard. The last wildcard spot. The Sabres are actually closer to two Atlantic Division spots and we’ll get to that coming up here. So, if you are listening before the game and you want a full preview on what Philadelphia is all about and my bet of the night coming up, you can stay tuned for the second and third segments of today’s show. Um, first segment though, try to make for, you know, everybody if you’re listening tomorrow morning as well. And tomorrow, of course, we will be talking to you about tonight’s game. So, all that coming your way in the next 24- 48 hours here on the Locked On Sabres podcast. This is a big game tonight and it’s a big game for Psyche and it’s a big game for Saber fans feeling like that their team is in the race because they really are one win away from I believe everybody being on the same page of okay yeah they’re in it. They’re in the race. I don’t know how many people would say that right now because you open up the standings and you look at where they sit. They’re 111 11-4. And at the moment, that is only better than one team in the conference. Florida is the only team that’s below the Sabres. They’ve lost three in a row. Now, by points percentage, Sabres and the Panthers are the same. 500 on the season. 500 points percentage, an 82 point pace. However, it can change in an instant. Now, they won’t climb over a lot of teams with a win over Philadelphia. They would only climb over Toronto tonight with a win. But more for me, more important tonight if they are to win and tomorrow if they are to win than the amount of teams that they will have to climb over because that number will still be five teams outside of the playoffs at the moment. But I’m not even paying attention to that. I at the moment, this is to make myself feel better, but also I think it is a better target for making the postseason. I at the moment am just looking at the division. I am I know the Sabres play a team in the Metro tonight that they can close to within three points of and that’s not nothing. That’s not nothing. But I have kind of closed off the Metropolitan Division. When I’m going to my standings pages at NHL.com or any other site you might be looking at it, I’m looking just at the division. I got eight teams that three of which will make it as the top three. And I’m not so sure that the Atlantic is going to get a wildcard position. I think the Metro is proving early to be the much stronger conference or much stronger division and I expect that to continue and I would imagine that the gap is going to widen between fourth and fifth in the Metro and fourth and fifth in the Atlantic. At the moment that’s only really a one two-point difference. I think that is going to grow. I think the better teams are in the Metropolitan Division which is really the first time that that has happened in years. It’s always been the Atlantic. The Atlantic has dominated both the regular season and the postseason in the Eastern Conference in the last decade, but I think this year is a lot different. Right now in the Metro, there is only one team with a negative point differential, and that is Columbus. Never negative goal differential. Meanwhile, in the Atlantic, there’s only one team with a positive goal differential, and that is the Tampa Bay Lightning. So, look at the division. I got eight teams and at the moment second place is sitting with 30 points. Last place Florida is sitting with 25. It is wide open. Wide open. Anybody’s ball game. Anybody can just come in and grab it. And the Sabres might not deserve to be in a race right now, but they are because the Atlantic stinks. It’s a bad bad division. The Red Wings are collapsing. Montreal has been playing very poor as of late. The Bruins are coming right back down to earth the way that we all kind of thought that they would. Toronto has won a couple in a row, but they’re still not looking like a great team. The only team at the moment that looks like, oh yeah, they are shoeing. They’re going to make it. That’s a good hockey team. That’s Tampa. I’m not sure about anybody else being a good hockey team. I’m not sure about the Sabres being a good hockey team. Like, they’re a part of this, but they’re in the thick of it with all those other teams. I don’t know right now that I would confidently tell you that any other team in the metro in the Atlantic has to be a better hockey team than the Buffalo Sabres. Even Ottawa, who I picked to win the division, I like them going into the year. Lenus Almark, who I part of my reasoning on Ottawa has always been that’s a good hockey team. That’s a it’s got a lot of talent on it, but they have stabilized goal, which is something that not a lot of teams in the Atlantic can say for themselves. That had been true and it was true last year, but at the moment is dead last in goal saved above expected in the entire NHL. Backups, starters, everybody. Mark is dead last. So, I don’t know if he’s going to figure it out or flip the switch, but it is not happening for him early. It’s kind of amazing. This is why I think Ottawa is actually the most dangerous of the other teams because they’re in second place in the division with playing terribly. If he does figure it out, then Ottawa is going to jump up and they’ll grab a spot. Other than that, I don’t think Detroit’s good. I don’t think Boston’s good. Montreal, I’m open to them being good, but it hasn’t looked strong. I don’t think Toronto’s good, and I don’t think Florida is good when they have their injuries. So, Sabres are right in the mix. They are right in the thick of it. And I think that they can grab a spot. They really can. They got to get some wins together here, and they got to get some points on this road trip. In the last 10 games, looking at the standings this way, in the last 10 games, the amount of points that the Sabres have gained on each team in the Atlantic, keep in mind, they’ve been six and four in the last 10 games, it’s not great. It’s good, right? Six and four is fine. Good. In that stretch, they’ve gained five points on Montreal, four points on Boston, two points on both Detroit and Toronto and Florida, and they’ve gained one point on Ottawa. The only team they’ve lost ground to in the last 10 games is the Lightning, who have gained four on them just because they’ve been so hot. So, I’m not even worried about Tampa at the moment and winning the division. The Sabres have been one game above 500 in the last 10. They’ve gained ground on everybody in the division except the Lightning. you do that again next year, next week, you go six and four again. Like the bar is low. That’s a big part of my optimism at the moment. It’s not what they’re doing. I’m open to them being good, but it’s the bar isn’t high. 91 points is the current pace for second place in the Atlantic Division. That’s bad. 91 points. Now, had a little interaction with somebody on Twitter a little bit earlier on and we were actually together kind of figuring out and I was looking at the math of it as the Sabres are um again in uh pretty good shape. Third, second and third in the division, 91 points. That would be for the Sabres to get to 91 points. 65 points in 56 games. Okay. 65 points in 56 games. How much is that? Well, when you do the math of it, on the course of the entire year, how do I get to 91 points? That’d be a record of 30, 21, and five. 30, 21, and five. I think that is very doable. That is only four games above real 500. Really, 30 wins out of a remaining 56. You can do that and get some loser points along the way. that is manageable and you’re not automatically gonna make the playoffs if you just get to 91. Maybe there’s another team that’ll jump up higher than that. Uh but I’m not so sure. I think 91 could really do it and that’s a record that the Sabres I think are absolutely capable of. So we’ll see if they start that off tonight against Philadelphia. We really should have a countdown. I’m I’m going to do that. 30 wins from here to the end of the year. The 30 plan. It’s tough because there’s so many of these, right? We talked about this the other day on the show. Lindy’s55.com is one uh fan who had made a site that kind of made sense on Lindy’s thing. There was the the 10 games segment thing that happened at the end of last year. I said earlier last week that I just want to jump over a team a week. You could do that. There’s a lot of different games you could play. 30 wins from right now till the end of the year. Make it 29 tonight against the Philadelphia Flyers. When we come back, we’ll get to Philadelphia. what challenges they present. It’s a team the Sabres could track down as well, but again, division is what I’m looking at at the moment. But let’s take a look at Philly when we return here on Locked On Sabres. Today’s episode of the Locked On Sabers podcast is presented by Drip Drop. So, when you’re hydrated, everything just works better. Your focus, your energy, your mood, even your skin. That’s why you got to use Drip Drop. It is doctordeveloped hydration that’ll keep you running at full power no matter what your day looks like. Drip Drop isn’t just your average sports drink. It delivers three times the electrolytes and half the sugar of leading brands using a sciencebacked formula trusted by medical professionals, firefighters, and over 90% of top college and pro teams. If Drip Drop is a part of your daily routine, you will notice a difference. You mix a pack in in the morning or maybe uh after a midday slump or during a midday slump, you throw a drink in. It tastes amazing. Your go-to flavor. Um I would say one of the berry flavors is always my favorite secret weapon that uh can keep you energized throughout the entire day. So right now, Drip Drop is offering listeners of our podcast 20% off your first order. Just go to dripdrop.com, use the promo code locked on NHL. It’s dripdrop.com. promo code locked on NHL for 20% off. Stock up now before we get rolling into the winner here. And keep your body and mind performing at their best with Drip Drop. Back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast, the Sabres and the Flyers. This is a TNT game tonight. A 7:30 puck drop in Philadelphia. And the Sabres are playing a team that has a new leader at the pack at the top of the heat and that is Trevor Zegris. Trevor Zegris on the season 25 points in 25 games. He is number one on Philadelphia by five points. This is a player that got traded in the offseason. Ryan Polling and a second round pick. Not a lot. Not a lot for Trevor Zagris who had been on the trade market seemingly for years. And although he’s playing really well, Anaheim doesn’t miss him. Anaheim is in first place in the Pacific Division after missing the playoffs a bunch of years in a row. Um, I bet they’re probably talking about right now the old addition by subtraction line of thinking, which is that we just needed to move on from this guy, open up a spot. I’m not really sure how they think about it. Um, it was clearly a needed change of scenery though for Zegris and the Ducks. He never really had a great relationship with the Ducks. There was always stuff about his contract and whether or not they were going to pay him and what he was worth. And then he was on the trade market and then we thought he was getting traded and then he wasn’t and then eventually he did. Like it was just a long drawn out situation between him and the Ducks. It seemed like it was always inevitably going to end. So they took not a lot. And part of that was as all of that was happening to Ziggress, he really declined as a player. I mean, in the 88 games he played in his final two seasons for the Anaheim Ducks, 47 points. He just didn’t do much. 18 goals in 47 points in 88 games those last two years. Um, again, kind of falling apart as a player. So, he gets the by low trade for Philly. Nice move by Danny Breier to take a shot on a really talented guy that has found a nice role here and a higher a higher role with the Philadelphia Flyers. Again, like on how long he’s been in the trade market, I looked the first time we did a podcast on Trevor Ziggress um and whether or not the Sabers should trade for him was in 2021. It was only his second year in the league and that was four years ago that we talked about it. So he’s the guy to watch out for for the uh Philadelphia Flyers tonight. Some of their other key pieces on the season, one of which they are going to be without. Um Ty Tyson Forester, he has six goals in his last seven games, but he has a um upper body injury and he’s out like long term. Like we’re talking months that he is going to be out. So, no Tyson Forester. So, that’s a bit of a a shot that they take in their top six. Also, old friend Rasmus Ralinan is also uh not playing um at the moment. So, we uh we’ll see. He got injured in the spring. How long he’s going to end up being out um I don’t believe. No. Yeah, he hasn’t played a game yet this year because it happened in the spring. Um, so otherwise what Philadelphia has got going on, Travis Kenkne is a good player. Owen Tippet has been a pretty good goal scorer in the last couple of years. They got some good guys. Mitchoff, that’s the guy to keep an eye on because he’s not off to the best start. Matt Vay Mitchkov last season 63 points, 26 goals in 80 games, fourth in the Calder race. Um, very strong rookie. He was a high pick, seventh overall just a couple of years ago. And this year he’s not off to the hottest of starts. He hasn’t been horrible, but the minutes are down and there’s been talk about that in Philadelphia. He was a guy who played almost 17 minutes a night last year in a rookie season and this year he’s playing under 15 per night. Um, eight goals, six assists is what you’re looking at on the season. And when you look at tonight’s line combinations, at least from what we saw at the last Philadelphia practice, so we’ll see if these hold true. Um the top line Mitchkov isn’t playing on it. It’s D’vor Christian D’vorak, Travis Kenkne, and Trevor Zgress. Mitchkov’s online too with Shan Couturier and Owen Tippet. Um some other guys that you might know about on this team, Nick Deloreier still hanging around as a fighter and we’ll see if he ends up playing tonight. He was taking regular line rushes yet uh this morning, so I expect him to be in the lineup. And then in goal, goal could be a good story for tonight because Daniel Vadar has been their he’s been more of their starting goalie on the year and he’s played better better than what they’ve had otherwise. 16 games for Vladar, a .906 safe percentage. He’s not playing tonight. Sam Eerson is playing tonight against the Buffalo Sabres. Sam Erison in eight games this year has an 859 save percentage. And out of 76 goalenders this year in goals saved above expected, he ranks 57th. One spot lower than Eric Comry, who we just saw the Sabres light up the other night. So, you’re not getting a very good goalender for tonight’s game, which could be big for the Buffalo Sabres because their starter to their backup. There is a big difference, at least if you’re judging on the results so far this season. So, that’s what Philadelphia has to offer some of their advanced numbers on the year. Like, are they as good as their record? They’re in a playoff spot right now. And the Flyers, by the way, have not really been the model of success in the time between the last when they played the Sabres in the Sabres last playoff series and now. In fact, the Flyers won a playoff series the following year. So 1112, that’s the year after they beat Buffalo. They beat Pittsburgh in the first round. They have won only one playoff series since then and it was in the co year when they beat Montreal who was like the 24th ranked team at the time. So I really don’t even want to count that. Like they they have really not won a real playoff series since 2012. It’s been a long long time for them and they have missed the playoffs five years in a row. We’ll see if this year becomes a six. They’re right on the border at the moment. Are they as good as a being a playoff team? They are back and forth on some of the numbers. Five on five shoot uh cory force. Their shot attempt percentage on the season, how many shot attempts they have relative to their opponent. They rank 22nd in the National Hockey League. Um shots, they do get more through. They have been almost even though they have outshot teams by exactly one this year at five on five. 485 shots for the Flyers, 484 for their opponent. The goals are exactly the same, 49 to 49. Um, expected goals though are a little bit lower. They ranked 23rd in the NHL this season at 47.96%. So that’s what you got to look looking at some of their numbers at five on five. Um, in terms of their special teams power play percentage this season, they are 20th in the NHL. That is one spot below the Sabres. And um on the penalty kill they are 11th. So a little bit better there. So average hockey team to me. Everything the roster, the lineup, the the stats, whether it’s individual stats or whether it’s the team stats. Like everything screams average hockey team. However, I’m not sure that’s true when they have the backup in. When Harrison plays, I don’t know that you should treat them like a average hockey team. I think the Sabres could very well be favored in a game like this. They’re not. Um, but with that goalie playing tonight, I think the Sabres have a very strong chance. The Sabres will be playing Colton Ellis tonight, and I like that he played really well, I thought, in their last game against Minnesota, it sounded like he was going to get the game earlier in the week, but because of the plane stuff and the back spasms that he had been dealing with, um, he, uh, he did not end up playing. Actually, I was wrong. We’re gonna get to my bet of the night coming back. I said the Sabres could be favored and they’re not. Uh they are. I mixed that up. Uh the Sabres were on top usually. Um it doesn’t matter. Minus 132. Pretty solid favorite. Road favorite with Colton Ellis between the pipes. Um that was going to be a consideration for bet of the night, but I don’t I like the Sabres to win tonight, but I don’t like them at those odds. If they were an underdog, that would have been it. I got another one that I like. That’s when we come back. look at some of the odds for tonight’s game for Sabres and Flyers when we return here on Locked on Sabres. Today’s episode of Locked on Sabers is presented by FanDuel. When we get to my bet of the night and all the odds for this game, all everything is going to be courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook. It’s not just hockey, football, basketball, everything. NFL Sundays are moving fast. One big play that will suddenly change everything. And that’s what makes live betting with FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action is unfolding. Every drive, momentum swings, every highlight moment. Live betting is at its best when the game starts to shift. A receiver getting hot or a defense tightening up, momentum flipping after a turnover. FanDuel lets you jump into that moment. Player props will update as the game is going on. You can bet next touchdown score, drive results, totals, and uh plenty more. keeps you locked in on every snap, every drive, every possibility. So, if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast and so can you. All right, sneaky Joe Deviasi back here on the Lockdown Sabres podcast. All right, we’re back into the single digits. Plus 9 on the season, plus 9.0 0 units for our bet of the night. So, as I mentioned, the Sabres are favored in this game at -1 132 + 110 for the Philadelphia Flyers. The overunder in this game is 6 12 + 110 on the over, minus 134 on the under. We almost got that over last game, but didn’t get all the way there. Um, some of the anytime goal bats, Josh Norris really climbing in the odds, as you probably would expect, right? Like people are going to want to bet Josh Norris after the game he just had and excitement on that front. He is second in goal odds for tonight. It goes Tage Thompson number one at plus 140 and Josh Norris number two at plus 220 and then there’s a lot of guys right kind of bunched together. Travis Kenkne, Mitchov, Zegris, Tippet, Tuck, uh all pretty close together. I’m going to go in a different direction. I like the Sabres to score some goals tonight as we mentioned about the goalending and um kind of the the style that Philly plays. Um the Flyers on the year, I guess they actually play more of a low event style game. Um but it does that doesn’t matter to me. I’m going for I’m attacking that goalie. I think you get some goals and I want a piece of the Sabres top line. I don’t need Norris because I think the Norris odds are inflated from how good a performance he had on Monday night. So, I want a piece of that line, but I don’t want to necessarily go at Norris and TA’s odds are already so good. So, you know where I’m going with this. I’m going to go Zack Benson. I’m not sure I’ve had a Benson bet as one of my bets of the night so far this year. And I definitely do not want him to score a goal. Um, I think his goal odds are kind of nuts. They are. He is plus 370 to score a goal tonight. That’s about the same as Jack Quinn. It’s above Rasmus Stallene and Ryan Mloud. Like I just I don’t know. I I don’t know how many goals he’s going to score this year. He just doesn’t shoot the puck. And I think he’s smart to not shoot the puck. So I don’t really think you’re going to get many of those. I am going to go Zack Benson to record an assist tonight. That’s it. Just to record an assist. Now his assist odds are not low. Like you get them pretty high. plus 164 is only behind Tage and Dene, but he’s averaging almost an assist per game and you’re getting it at plus 164, which if you can get that odds every night and he scores, he gets an assist in 80% of the hockey games, you’re going to make out really well there. So, at the moment, until those odds start to shift a little bit more for him as he continues to rack up the points, especially the assist totals, um, I like that as a bet, especially again, I’m getting a piece of that line. If Norris scores, if scores, then I have a really, really good shot of cashing. So, Zack Benson assists tonight is where I’m rolling. Plus 164. That will do it for this edition of the Locked on Sabres podcast. If you want more hockey talk all across the league, be sure to check out Locked on NHL game night. They are available wherever you get your podcast, YouTube as well. You can watch the show there. And we will talk to you tomorrow. You’re on the Locked On Sabers podcast, following Sabres and Flyers, part of the Locked On Network, your number one sports podcast network.

The Buffalo Sabres are within shouting distance of both second place and third place in the Atlantic Division, despite winning just six of their last ten games. As the Sabres have picked up 12 of a possible 20 points, that has been good enough to gain ground on everyone in the division, except Tampa.

Sneaky Joe dives in on the standings, how bad the Bruins, Red Wings, and Canadiens have looked, and figures out that the Sabres likely need 30 wins from here until the end of the year to make the playoffs. Are they capable of that? Plus, a preview of the Sabres vs. Philadelphia Flyers matchup

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