Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Prediction | PFF

Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Preview & Prediction | PFF

The PFF Plus holiday sale is going on right now. Use the promo code holiday30 to get yourself 30% off a PFF Plus subscription. That means that you get everything. The grades, the premium stats, all of the fantasy tools, all the betting tools, all the draft tools. It’s everything a football fan could want year round. Holiday 30. That’s what gets you 30% off that year-long PFF plus subscription at subscribe.pff.com. [Music] The Houston Texans traveling to Kansas City for Sunday Night Football against the Kansas City Chiefs. A lot of uncertainty on the offensive line for Kansas City, but it is still a back against the wall must-win type of a game. Will Anderson, if it weren’t for Miles Garrett, would maybe be having a defensive player of the year type of season, and he would be up there at the top of that conversation. But regardless of Miles Garrett, he’s having a hell of a year. So is the no Hunter. So, we got our guy Terron Armstead to help us understand what’s going to happen in the trenches in this matchup. Let’s hear from him. All right, Terron, we got a big one this week. Houston Texans, Kansas City Chiefs. Feel like we’ve said this basically each of the last three weeks. It’s like do or die for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this really feels like it now with that loss to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving where there’s there’s no room for error for the Chiefs. They have to win these games and they’re going up against a Houston Texans team that is trending in the right direction. Led of course by one of the best defenses in the NFL, if not the best defense in the NFL that’s spearheaded by their edge rushers, Denil Hunter and Will Anderson. We got some offensive tackle injuries, issues, guys who are in and out of the lineup for Kansas City. And so it’s going to be a tough one no matter what. Even if they were fully healthy, it was going to be tough. But Denel Hunter and Will Anderson, it doesn’t get much better than this duo this season. What have you seen from these guys and how good each of them are individually and then how good they are being on the same team on the opposite side of the line? Yeah, man. These these guys are they’re dominant. They’re relentless. They’re consistent. They play really well together, the entire defense. But talking about these two guys specifically, Denil Hunter has been that. And I feel like now he’s starting to get his notoriety and starting to get more attention, nationwide attention. But he was that in Minnesota. I’ve had my personal battles with the guy. I’m happily on this side of it because of guys like Denil Hunter. Have you ever seen this man in person? I’ve never seen him in person. I’ve never seen him in person, but I just see when they show him on the field, I got to know what the arm workout is. I mean, the arms alone are truly insane. We don’t even see need to see any other part of his body. Just showed me the arms and I was like, “All right, this is going to be a tough day at the office for these offensive D.” forever. When I say a specimen, this dude has zero% body fat. Like, it’s it’s crazy to to to watch this man and the way that he plays. And then you add Will Anderson on the other side and they’re they’re fire individually, but when you combine them, it’s it’s pick your poison because as an offensive line and protection, you can only slide one way, right? So, one of these two guys are getting a one-on-one almost every rep unless you’re bringing in your eligibles, your tight end, your running back, your receiver to try to help. And then that that eliminates the number of guys that’s getting out in the route. So, on a five to five verse four, one of these guys are getting one-on-one. And these guys are consistently winning one-on- ones. Speed to power, hand work, hand usage, quickness, they have everything. And that defense is incredible, man. And it’s they call they talk about the math equation, right, of okay, there’s 11 guys on the field for each side of things, but you’re always trying to swing the math in your favor, right? You got more pass rushers than they have blockers. You have more coverage defenders to one side of the field than they have eligible receivers. And so you’re always trying to change the math and when right off the bat in the trenches, you’re forced to, like you just said, bring in more guys to block and have less eligible receivers. Well, now all of a sudden you got Kamari Lassner and Dererick Stingley on the outside. You feel good matching those guys up against any wide receivers one-on-one. And then if you’ve got a one-on-one as a base, you got the safeties over the top. You got the linebackers trying to help them out if they’re going over the middleman. It it’s easy to see on paper and on execution when you watch the film why this Texans team is one of the best in the NFL. We have seen Patrick Mahomes sort of run for his life at times. over the last two years and this year specifically, it’s been a little less running for his life this year. But when you have these matchups where you know you’re going to be pressured, right? Like it’s kind of it’s kind of a not an if, but a when with the nil Hunter and Will Anderson, what’s the game plan like? Is it simply getting more tight ends and keeping the running back to to to block? or maybe do you like the idea of, hey, more roll out stuff. Let’s get Patrick Mahomes away from the pocket. How do you really game plan as an offense for a defensive line that’s as good as this? Uh, yeah, Trevor. So, there’s two games that come to mind when I look at this matchup, and that’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Philadelphia Eagles. Both Super Bowl matchups for the Chiefs. And we saw Mahomes under constant duress. He was never able to get settled. this game can turn out that way because of the injuries to the O line, because of the the defense and these rushers, it can turn out that way. The one thing that could essentially save the Chiefs is the run game. I think anytime that they got to drop back and pass the ball, it it’s going to be a challenge. It’s going to be a challenge. This is what they This is what the Texans do. They present that challenge. Those guys on the outside, Stingley, Lasser, all those guys, the run game. A couple weeks ago, we seen Kareem Hunt with 30 carries and 100 plus yards. That’s that’s really the way. And I and I I trust Andy Reid and the offense and Patrick Mahomes to make plays. They’re going to make some plays for sure. But to make enough to win this game, it’s going to have to they’re going to have to lean on that run game and having efficient runs, three yards, four yards, that’s that’s great. That’s a great day’s work for them. Just keep chipping away for those three, four yard run games. when they have to pass the ball, it will be extra eligibles in tight ends will stay in the chip. Running back will stay in the chip. They have to. They just have to. Or this game will look like Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl, Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl last year. That’s a great reference because there’s just there’s not many teams that have rattled Patrick Mahomes over the last seven or eight years. But those are two that got the better of him. And obviously when you can get him out of the pocket, when you can get him uncomfortable, there’s not, again, there’s not many instances where Mahomes gets uncomfortable, but that’s how you do it. And they’ve got to be able to not let those guys pins their pin their ears back. Fantastic perspective, Terron. We appreciate it as always, my friend. Yes, sir. Appreciate you. So, we were talking with Tron earlier this morning, the we did the interview earlier this morning, and since then, Dalton Josh Simmons has been announced that he is going to go on IR with that wrist injury. So, he will not be in this game. You know, Trey Smith, Jawan Taylor, like those guys are still dealing with injuries as well. And so, it’s going to be a beat up Kansas City offensive line in this game going up against the best defense in the NFL, I think. So, so what’s Kansas City going to do on offense to try to make up for it here? Well, certainly they’re going to have to get rid of the football quickly with Will Anderson and Denil Hunter breathing out Patrick Mahomes neck. It would help if they could run the football, but we know that’s inconsistent. The one thing Mahomes has still had this year in his back pocket is that he’s been really good still at throwing the football down the middle of the field and you talk about against this Texans team, you have to throw it down the middle because you want to avoid Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lacier on the outside. But the Texans have gotten a lot better at covering the middle of the field since I believe it’s week five. They are the third best team, third highest coverage grade covering between the numbers. And I think a big reason for that is a development they have going on at safety with one of your favorite players, Trevor Kalin Bullock. Okay. 85.7 PFF grade since week seven. This is after the Texans by week. Second best in the NFL. 85.9 run defense grade. Might be the most shocking thing of all of them there considering what we saw from him at USC with the struggles in run defense and tackling. But four interceptions in that span is tied for the league lead. 80.3 coverage grade. what you’re seeing from these Texans safeties, Bullock as the deep free and uh Jaylen Petri flying around in the slot and in the box all over the place. They’re even better at covering the middle of the field. It was something they struggled with the first few weeks of the season. But Bool’s development as their free safety, a guy that they can just trust on the back end with his speed and his instincts, especially when they go to these cover three schemes that Demo Ryans really likes on that side of the ball. It’s this. We thought this Texans pass defense was arguably the best in football already. And then you’ve got a guy like this emerging at free safety that closes down space so fast and he’s such a better tackler than he was in college and he’s still only 22 years old and feels like he’s getting better every single week. This is as complete a pass defense as we have in football. and the vulnerabilities that they used to maybe have down the middle of the field where Patrick Mahomes has been so good throwing the ball this year that seems to be covered up now by the fact that Bullock and Jaylen Petri especially are playing so good at safety right now. Yeah, it’s it’s a great combination and and I think skill setwise like you mentioned it it’s it’s such a great combination of of what Bullock likes to be as a single high center fielding free safety with Jaylen Petri does best roaming around the field. I just think that they’re they’re put together so well. It’s what I love so much about the Texans. It’s not just that they’re talented, it’s that they’re put together very very well. Now, if they get injured in in one of these key spots, yeah, sometimes it’s tough to get the guys to replace them to be able to fill right in, but man, when they are fully healthy, they’re fantastic. I I’m not going to call the Houston offensive line fantastic, but better as of late, absolutely. This past week, 77.1 overall blocking grade, 78.8 pass blocking grade. you will absolutely take that given the way that they were playing at the beginning of the season, how worried we were about this group going into the season. Now, Dalton, a a big concern I have for this game is it’s still do or die for the Chiefs. You know, they still believe, you know, they win out, maybe they they have a chance, right, to make the playoffs here. So, it’s still do or die for them. It is still at home. It’s in Arrowhead. And specifically, what do we talk about as the best defense against Patrick Mahomes? Over the last couple of years, it’s been a good run game on your side. Can you keep this guy on the field? He can’t hurt you if he’s if he’s not on the field. And so, being able to run the ball and control the ball, I think, is going to be key. Since week nine, so over the last month and a week, month and a half, Texans 26th in the NFL in EPA per rush, they’re 27th in third down percentage overall over the last three games. I get worried about this team being able to control the ball and control the game as much as you want to to keep Mahomes uh on the sideline there. And then of course when you look at Mahomes, yeah, the record’s not great with them sitting at six and six, but their losses by six, by three, by seven, by three. They win by three against the Colts and then they lose by three against the Cowboys. Like they’re just in these close matchups every single time. I I think that this is going to be a really close game. I can’t wait to watch this one. Anytime you get Patrick Mahomes in this situation, it’s so much fun to watch. But man, Houston’s playing the best defense in the NFL right now. I am still going to take the Chiefs. I’m going to take the Chiefs at home. They’re favored by three and a half in this game. And I’m going with about what that line is. I’m going to go Chiefs 24, Texans 21. I I do think there is an element of this game um where the Texans are going to need CJ Strad to play his best game of the year. I do think this Texans defense right now can absolutely match up with the Chiefs with the way they’re playing at all three levels. I don’t think the Chiefs are going to have a ton of success running the ball. This game could eventually come down to just CJ Strad versus Patrick Mahomes. And I thought Straoud played well in the playoff game against them last year. I’m going to take Houston to get it done on the road. And look, the two teams that I’ve struggled to pick games for all year long are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Carolina Panthers. Luckily, the Panthers aren’t playing this week, but I’m going to take the Texans 20 to 17. I think they go in there and get this defense gets it done. And I I think the one thing that you brought up was the desperation factor for the Chiefs here. Really does worry me when you consider could we really be entering week 15 and the Chiefs season? I I think if they lose this game, the season’s basically over. I think it’s over. I think their season is over if they lose this game. Yeah. if they go to if they go to six and seven because their schedule is somewhat favorable, but you have the Texans and if you lose this game, you go to six and seven. It’s then the Chargers, the Titans, the Broncos who might be still, you know, fighting for that number one overall seed at this point because they got to keep pace with the New England Patriots and then it’s the Raiders. So, you feel pretty good about the Titans and the Raiders. So, they’re at least getting two more wins there. But the problem, the real problem is 10 and seven get them in. That’s if they win four more. If they lose, if they’re going to go 10 and seven, they can’t lose this game. They need to lose because all of a sudden, think about it this way. They would have they will have lost a tiebreaker with the Bills. They’ll have lost a tiebreaker with Jacksonville. They’ll have lost a tiebreaker with Houston. They currently already have a loss to the Chargers. You think about all the teams ahead of them except the Colts. They’re losing that tiebreaker and the Colts may just drop out of the race alto together the way they’re playing right now. This is not a good look right now. If and especially you’re talking if they’re six and seven and you’ve got Texans, Bills, Colts, Chargers all at eight wins already and you have to catch them, you have to go 4-0 and beat them cleanly, right? I I I really think you would rather lose a game to Denver than Houston at this point if that’s going to be the case. But the way the tiebreers shake, they may have to get to 11. I I I think I really do think if they lose this game, the season could be over. Yeah. Yeah. So, I can’t I can’t bet against Mahomes in that regard, but this is going to be a very very fun game with a ton on the

PFF’s Dalton Wasserman and Trevor Sikkema preview the matchup between The Houston Texans and The Kansas City Chiefs.

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