Pittsburgh Pirates About to Become CONTENDERS on the Free Agent Market

Pittsburgh Pirates About to Become CONTENDERS on the Free Agent Market

The Pittsburgh Pirates are about to do something they’ve never really done. Spend real money. I’ll tell you why I’m convinced and what it affects next on Locked on Pirates. [Music] You are Locked On Pirates, your daily Pittsburgh Pirates podcast, part of the Locked On Network. Your team every day. What’s up everybody? Welcome back to Locked On Pirates, part of the number one ranked Locked On podcast network, your team Everyday. Shout out to all my Everydayers. You’re the heartbeat of this show. And don’t forget, the Everydayer Club launches this December. More details are coming very soon, and it’s going to be a fun way to go deeper together. I’m Gary Morgan, former editor at steelcitypirates.com, covering the Bucks since 2019. I’m a lifelong fan who can recite way too many middle relievers from the nutting era. Thanks for making this show one of the most engaged Pirates pods out there. Thanks for making me your first listen every day. So today we’re going to go through why the Pirates are finally poised to break the mold and spend and why this year feels mandatory. uh why the changes um on Mitch Keller’s trade possibilities have come into play for me based on this spending revelation. And in segment three, we’ll do a couple of really good AMAs. One about how many MLB at bats does it take to know who a player is and the other about the Marlins. So, good stuff. Before we get into it though, today’s episode is brought to you by FanDuel. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit FanDuel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. Why will the Pirates spend? Let’s start with the headline. I’ve said I expect the Pirates team payroll to land around 95 to 100 million this season, and it could go a little bit higher, but only if they land a truly big fish. and those don’t come around often and when they do the price tag usually starts with a two and sometimes a three. Um the real meat of it here is that the Pirates have 30 to 35 million they can add and it’s not just available, they actually want to spend it. Uh they recognize they screwed up last year for one thing and roster construction and timing didn’t match their aspirations. uh league temperature matters. When the sport is talking floors, revenue sharing, the optics of effort, teams like Pittsburgh, the A’s, Miami, they don’t want to be the low water mark everyone points at next winter as you’re standing there shoulderto-shoulder with with Hal Stein Brener who has your back in this fight, wants to fight for the same thing you do. I I think it it stands to reason you don’t want to be the shining example that the players are constantly pointing to. And and while nobody’s going to forget the history here, it’s still best to be better positioned going into it. And and I do believe the Pirates have incentive to do that this time. Uh I think as a matter of fact, most of the small markets do. If there’s forward momentum towards a system with a floor, it helps the push if the small market cohort isn’t mailing it in. Perception becomes part of the negotiation. And frankly, optics really do matter. If you’re skeptical, look, I get it. Bob Nutting climbed the Clemeni wall and shouted a dollar amount. Yens wouldn’t trust it. I get it. Williams and Cherington aren’t exactly confidence factories either, but even liars tell the truth sometimes. And this is the rare year where we tried will be tough to sell if they come up empty. If it doesn’t happen, someone will be blamed. But I don’t think anybody wants to be. And I think they all know they’re going to wear shrapnel from whatever explodes. I’d be shocked if they don’t have at least one marketable name signed by Pirates Fest, maybe two, but the math just doesn’t work here for the Pirates. They they have to go out and take a couple bigger swings. You’re not going to have enough roster space to add six, seven, eight, five to$6 million players. There’s going to have to be some bigger dollar figures in there. I really am getting the impression that the Pirates have essentially carpet bombed the free agent market. They have bids in on almost everyone that makes any kind of level of sense at all. And I mean all the way from the biggest names out there to the most insignificant. They are talking to just about everyone. They’re no joke. They want to add payroll. doesn’t have to be through free agency. And I think we’ll find that it’s difficult to hit this number via free agency. I I really do believe they’re going to have to find a way to bring in salary via trade. That’s a lot harder to actually accomplish for the Pirates than than other teams because first they don’t shop like this. How often do we propose even as fans trades that have the Pirates sending out very little for somebody that actually is owed money? you know, like early on in the off season, I suggested this Anthony Santander trade and I don’t I didn’t think it 100% made sense, but because, you know, I figured like even though Toronto didn’t use him a lot last year, they did pay him a lot of money, they know they’re stuck with them. I’m sure they have some kind of a plan to utilize him, you know, but now I see like they’re talking to Kyle Tucker. They still want to bring back Bo Bashette. They’ve, you know, they they may not need Anthony Santandere. And the Pirates could be staring down the barrel at a really nice opportunity to to take on some salary, get yourself a power bat that can actually help you and, you know, potentially patch a hole with with a real player. Now, he didn’t play well last year. That would scare me off a little bit, I would think, if I’m a Pirates fan. You don’t want to bring in somebody that struggled, but he’s got a history of not struggling, right? He has a history of of hitting some home runs. Again, this is stuff this team needs. Nothing you’re going to do comes with no risk. And yeah, if you trade for for Santandere, it’s not just a well, if he sucks, we’re okay. If he stinks, you’re in a worse situation than you were in. No doubt. No doubt because you can’t afford to do what Toronto did. You can’t afford to sit him on your bench paying him that much money. I get it. I don’t think Toronto can afford it either, which is why I think that they’d be open to trading the guy like that. Those are the types of things this team’s going to have to hunt. They’re going to have to find teams that want to dump salary for prospects. That’s what the Pirates have for sale anyway. and they need to not be afraid to to see if they can squeak in some of their own borderline guys in return. You know, do what other teams that are doing this to you have traditionally done. Yeah, give them something that they actually wanted from your prospect pool, but give them something that you consider to be a coming problem child or, you know, something that isn’t gonna pan out for you. like toss in somebody like a Shang Sha Shang, clean yourself up a little bit. Like you just added him to the 40man probably a year early last year. It didn’t pan out last year. Now he’s blocked up and I don’t know how it pans out unless he really takes off and takes over the shortstop position this year for the Pirates, which defensively he’s more than capable of. But I think he’s got quite a few hurdles to jump to get there, right? So, it’s probably a guy that is just barreling towards eventually getting taken off your 40man. This is Leo Paggero three years ago, right? Without the power promise. So, use that guy. That’s that’s prospect capital. Someone else might want him. Someone else might like that. It’s somebody that you toss in instead of like somebody that they value perhaps in the lower levels. You know, if you can find a way to turn those guys into value and send them out, you’re answering a question for yourself like, “How am I going to deal with this guy?” Because I probably made a mistake adding him to my 40man. You’re making room and it’s not a player that you’re going to be crying about being expendable. And you’ve added payroll. All those things are difficult. Markets like this have a hard time getting guys to sign. I’ve been proposing recently, the Pirates really need an ambassador type signing. They need to sign a free agent. They probably need to overpay for it. They need to bring somebody in here that is willing to stand at the microphone and tell the league, “Hey, look, I know what you think about this place, but it’s different now, and here’s why, and I’m part of the reason, and I’m breaking the mold, and I’m the reason you can believe that they’re real now. Come over here and have a conversation. Let’s get this team where we want it to be.” Be part of it. Be part of it with me. Be part of the solution. They need an AJ Bernett. They need a Russell Martin. They need somebody that’s going to come in here and tell the league it’s okay to believe in this team again. Even if it’s fleeting, even if it’s this year, even if it’s an overall like plugging of the nose because you realize what above you isn’t isn’t great here in Pittsburgh, there’s enough on this team that you can look around the room even right now and see the the possibilities. So, if you’re a free agent that signs here, I would love it to be somebody that’s got that evangelist in them that can go out and preach that this is now a place to be. This is a destination. This is where you’re looking to be. They’re actually spending money. Come be part of the train. That sort of thing is important. And maybe maybe back to yesterday, somebody asked me again in AMA about not taking JT Riuto seriously enough. Well, JT Riuto might be that perfect kind of guy because if you’re trying to really spend money, wouldn’t it be great to get JT RiuTo in here and let him evangelize to Kyle Schwarber a little bit about how great it might be to come to Pittsburgh and finish what they tried to start in Philly? Maybe. I mean, like, that’s kind of the way it needs to go. All right, coming up, Mitch Keller. Why spending changes the calculus on trading him a bit and why I’m now leaning keep. First, a quick word from our sponsors. 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This show’s engagement is right up at the top of this number one rated podcast network in all of the land locked on podcast network. That’s because of you. Thank you very much. Some of you have even taken to DMs to tell me the entire history of your story. My my one buddy Marshall out in Arizona sent me this long story about how his pirates fandoms evolved over the years. Really fun to read through things like that. the I love hearing things like that and learning about other people’s journeys into fandom. It’s good stuff. So, keep doing that and I really do appreciate it. Now, Mitch Keller, I’ve previously floated the idea of an old school baseball trade. Move color, bring back a bat with a similar salary, swap money and talent, keep the baseball or the payroll neutral while addressing needs. And I also entertained the idea of trading him just to add cash to the spendable pool turn 30 to 35 million into 45 to 50. But here’s where I’m at now. The only scenario where adding 15 to 20 million via a Keller trade truly matters is if you’re going after a $25 million per per year player. There just aren’t many of those. They’re usually stars. They come with a risk at bidd in bidding wars and might not get concluded until close to the end of the off season. If the organizational plan is to be over 90 million, and I truly do believe it is, they shouldn’t need to move Keller to spend smartly. Pitching stability matters, especially for a team trying to turn the page and get series. Keller gives you innings, competence, and the ability to build a rotation that won’t collapse in June. So instead of trading Keller to expand a war chest you might struggle to deploy efficiently, I think the better move is to retain him. Spend the 30 to 35 million across targeted upgrades, rotation depth, a bat with thump, bullpen certainty, and create a roster that makes sense. Like, do I still believe a marketable name or two lands by Pirates Fest? Absolutely. I just said that. And if we’re talking Impact without the $25 million AAV tier, that’s exactly the kind of shopping lane where you don’t need to move Keller to make it happen. I I really think it it would be foolish at this point. And and another big reason that I’ve been thinking about it is the math just doesn’t check out. Like if you trade Mitch Keller, you’re going to have to replace him. You are. They don’t have anybody that’s going to be capable of coming in here and and matching that innings amount. Don’t get me wrong, none of them are guarantee. Mitch could get hurt this year, right? I mean, and then he’s not an innings eater anymore, but they just don’t have a plan for it. You got a lot of kids that are stretching probably this year into territories they’ve never stretched before. Paul Skins is probably your reliable horse. When we talk about a 200 ining guy, he’s a 200 ining guy. He will be if he’s healthy. And I imagine he’ll get every bit of that 200, maybe even 220 innings this year. They might be willing to let him have. I mean, he if he had his brothers, he’d go 240, which I’m not sure he’s done the math actually on that because I think he’d have to go seven or eight innings just about every outing and not miss one. So, it’ be pretty tough to do in today’s game. Um, but I do believe that if you trade Mitch Keller, you got to go out and get another starter. And I don’t think you’re going to be able to get away with that being a cheapo. Like, there’s some guys I’d be interested in. My buddy Josh from Bridge to Bucktober actually just mentioned the other day um Jose Canana. I’ve been looking at him too. 5 million probably less maybe even that’s a lefty starter that you could you could work in. It it would be along the lines of what the Pirates have done before. That wouldn’t be an effort to spend money. But if you want to like make money on trading Mitch color like say you traded him for prospects just to clear up the capital to allocate funds. Well, you’re creating a hole. So, you got to fill the hole. If you fill the hole with somebody like Canana, okay, that’s again, I’m going to be I’m going to be nice and say $5 million. I’m not sure he’s worth that anymore. $5 million. Okay. Well, you you’ve really you’ve made what? $10 million on the deal as far as like spendable funds. And I’m not sure that you’ve made your rotation better. In fact, I’m pretty sure you’ve weakened it. So, so to me, if you trade Mitch Keller, you’d probably have to spend almost what you spent on him just to get kind of back to where you were in the rotation. And I feel like you’re going to have to go out and get another starter. And I’m not sure that that’s where you want to be spending this money right now. I I think might be better off to just leave well enough alone. Mitch isn’t perfect, but there’s an awful lot there that there is to like, and I really think that the Pirates would be wise to kind of pull back here a little bit. First, I don’t think the matchups that they were hoping for are coming along. Um, a lot of the people that have been rumored as as potential targets for Mitch aren’t so much. Like, Boston is just not interested and Toronto clearly isn’t. They’ve they’ve done their job there already bringing in another starter. I I just don’t believe that that a lot of the teams we thought were going to be into it are. I don’t even think Baltimore really is. I I know they need pitching, but I think they’re looking for something younger, controllable, you know, for a lot more a lot less money and a lot longer. And and I think that’s going to be prospects that are they’d be more interested like we talked in the AMA yesterday. They might be more interested in a Bubba Chandler than than a Mitch Keller. You see what I’m saying? I just think that the market is not ideal for trading a Mitch Keller. The the valuation is difficult to work with. He’s owed a decent amount of money. I don’t think it’s a problem for a team like the Pirates. We signed him. But the problem is it’s a great value. It’s like if you if you have a car that you owe $4,000 on, but the car is only worth $4,000. You know, you’re at that break even point. I kind of feel like that’s where they are with Mitch Keller. He is what he is. He’s getting paid what he’s getting paid. It’s fair. It’s very fair. Any team would think it’s fair. So, it’s not going to be something that you can really escape easily and you don’t have that slightly uneven valuation that you can go out there and and kind of exceed the value with or or undercut the value with. Like, you have to kind of find something even there. I don’t think there’s an awful lot of those payroll pickup situations that make a lot of sense. There’s a couple like Luis Roberts one, but nobody wants Luis Robert. nobody. And I mean, he’s just signed for too much money and he’s not he’s he just hasn’t been consistent. Okay. Very talented player. Again, I I would call him a a right-handed O’Neal Cruz. Just wish he would pay more attention. Wish he would just use his talent better. Things like that. But Santan there comes up. I’m sure there’s some other pitchers that are in that kind of dead zone. Guys that you would be willing to move off of, they they tend to be people that have struggled a little bit or not done as well as you’d hope and you’re paying them more than you want. Like those are the targets you’re you’re literally intentionally going out there looking for bad value because that’s what you have to do and the pirates are trying to sell a break even value. The math just doesn’t quite work. again like I could easily convince the Padres’s to sell me Manny Machado for Mitch Keller and this year those those monies would offset a little bit. The problem is they don’t offset forever because Manny Machano is signed until he’s like literally in the nursing home making way too much for a long time. He’s he’s got a completely unmovable contract. Xavier Bogarts or Xander Bogarts. Same thing. If you want somebody from the Padres’s that actually makes sense, it’s somebody like Fernando Tatis. And and yes, I think there are teams that will try because the Padres’s are in real trouble. They need to move some money. So, if you were able to get somebody like a Fernando Tatis, well, he makes sense because he’s signed until he’s in the nursing home, too. But he’s got a lot longer to go until he’s in the wheelchair. So you you actually would get value. Problem is now you’re asking a team that never spends to spend and be willing to spend for the next 10 years, right? And by the way, don’t look at any red flags from the team you’re trading f, you know, from as to what they’re dealing with for having done exactly what you’re going to do. Right? So, I just don’t think that that that the stars are going to align here for this. I think Mitch Keller is going to remain a Pittsburgh Pirate. And if you do trade for bats, I think you’re trading prospect arms for bats. Or you could be doing a little bit of a reshuffle with some borderline guys. Like maybe you decide Nick Gonzalez is worth some money someplace and you really do want to upgrade second base. You could do that. Nick Gonzalez is getting relatively close to arbitration starting for him. He hasn’t taken off. It’s been a while. There there’s a way that you could make some moves off of this roster, too. But the money and the math just don’t match up for Mitch Keller for me anymore. When we come back, I got a couple AMAs from you guys that came in late yesterday after the show. AMAs always spawn more AMAs. That’s the first role of podcasting. How many MLB at bats do we need to know a player using O’Neal Cruz as the example and then some Marlins trade fits that uh we’ll see about making sense or not. NFL Sundays move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different. That’s what makes live betting with FanDuel so exciting. You’re not just watching the game, you’re reacting to it in real time. With FanDuel, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. Live betting is best when the game starts to shift, a receiver gets hot, a defense tightens up, or the momentum flips after a turnover, FanDuel lets you jump into the moment. For instance, I think this weekend the Steelers and Ravens have an overunder set at like 43 and a half. And the way the Steelers have been scoring, that seems unlikely unless Baltimore scores all of those. So just hey, think about it. You can bet next touchdown scores, drive results, totals, and more. It keeps you locked in every snap. Live spreads and money lines adjust instantly. Player props update as guys heat up. So, if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fanuel.com and place your NFL bets all season long. FanDuel, the game moves fast, so you can too. Hey, welcome back to Locked On Pirates everybody. Before we jump into your questions, follow me on X at Gary Mo20007. Follow Locked on Pirates on YouTube, Apple, Spotify. Drop a comment with your offseason wish list. I want to feature a few in an upcoming episode. Um, AMA. First one here. Is there a specific number of MLB at bats that tells you what a player really is? Cruz has 1,384. What does that say? I love this question. Um, in general, my policy anyway, it’s once a hitter gets to around a thousand at bats, you have a solid sample for core outcomes, power, contact quality, swing decisions, some platoon tendencies. Developing splits takes a little longer. Leftyrighty performance can bounce year to year because of sample sizes and pitch mixes and health, but 1,384 at bats for O’Neal Cruz is substantial. At 27, players tend to be close to their true talent. But that doesn’t mean that development stops. For Cruz, the shape is pretty clear. It’s an 80g grade raw power. Legit damage on contact. Swing decisions and pitch recognition versus lefties and soft stuff are where gains need to happen. Improvement windows can come from approach tweaks, contact, point discipline, and selectively against lefty breaking balls, he can do a little bit better. So, do we know who he is? Well, broadly, yes. impact power with approach gaps. Can you raise the floor also? Yes. With targeted development and lineup protection. The important thing is to judge process as much as the results. If chase rates dip and he hunts damage zones, the production follows. You don’t need them to hit everything. You need him to stop swinging at nothing. And a lot of you are just misconstring my stance on O’Neal Cruz and I kind of don’t understand it. I feel like a lot of you have an answer in your head and and until you hear someone spit that exact answer at you about O’Neal Cruz, you’re just not going to accept it. I’m not telling you he’s a superstar. I’m not telling you he’s a generational talent. I’m not telling you he’s great. I’m not telling you he’s going to be great. I’m not telling you he’s better than someone else. I’m not telling I’m telling you the man hit 20 home runs in this league twice. This team has to have power. I can’t think of any other way to say it. And until they have more options in their lineup to provide said power, O’Neal Cruz stays. That doesn’t mean that I’m waiting for him to turn into the generational talent we all thought he was three years ago. That doesn’t mean I expect it to break out this year. That doesn’t mean that I expect anything from him this year that I didn’t see in his previous three, but I expect him to put some things together. He’s had some partial seasons. He’s had a big injury season. He’s had years where he hit lefties really well. He’s had years where he didn’t hit lefties really well. He’s had years where he hit power and then it fell off the table. He’s had years where he’s been better at contact and almost completely forgot that he could hit home runs. We’ve seen all this from him. This is normal. This is as raw as raw toolsy guys gets. That’s what O’Neal Cruz was when he was drafted or selected or signed internationally by the Dodgers. It’s what he’s been the entire time he came up with the Pirates. and we hungry ass Pirates fans labeled him a generational talent in the making. Well, you’re looking at the difference. O’Neal Cruz never did what Conor Griffin’s doing in the minors. That O’Neal Cruz Onal Cruz never really did what Henry Davis did in the minors. We overestimated what he was based on some skills he has. They can’t be taught. They’re physical gifts. You can’t teach an 80g grade power tool. He just has it. You can teach them how to use it and you could argue they failed. You could argue another team might have more success or not, but you don’t flush a player like that. And for simply saying that you want to keep a guy like that or continue to give him at bats does not mean that you don’t see the warts suddenly. It doesn’t mean that you’re saying, “Oh, all is good or he’s going to be great. I’m telling you, just hold on.” No, I’m telling you, you can’t afford to lose what he is, whether he’s what you want him to be or not. That’s the point. And it I’m flabbergasted by how many people are missing it. Flabbergasted by it. The Marlins. Are there any good trade matchups with the Marlins? They’re interested. Um, they’re interesting. They’ve got some players that I think the Pirates would want for sure. Kyle Sters will be wonderful, but the Marlins have a lot of guys that they kind of just onboarded last year, the year before. They’re they’re got a young core in their offensive unit. I don’t see them being all that willing to trade a lot of them. In fact, the only one I’ve really heard outside of some random relievers and whatnot is uh Sandy Alcantara. And would I like to have him in my rotation? Sure. Sure I would. Um, but I think the Marlins are in a lot of the same boat that the Pirates are in. I I think they’re looking to add payroll, too. They, in fact, they’ve had extension talks die with three of their players this this off season, which probably speaks to a more systemic problem going on in Miami, but I I know they would like to add. I’m just not sure how capable they are. And I’m not sure that a trade with the Pirates who are also looking to add is going to work out. Um the Pirates need to add salary. They really do. I’m not saying they have to spend a lot of money on every position. Like if you got a K a Kyle Sters back and you’re not paying him a ton of money and whatever, nobody here is going to like be whipping someone because it didn’t cost a ton. But if I’m the Pirates, the only reason I wouldn’t go and pursue something like that is if I planned on extending Kyle Sters myself. But since he turned down their $15 million a year offer and I don’t think he’s worth that, I don’t see the Pirates doing that. So, I I I think personally the Marlins are probably more of a competitor for the Pirates than a trade partner. I don’t see the matchup working well. Again, I can find guys that I think the Marlins would love to have from the Pirates. And I can find guys I think the Pirates would love to have from the Marlins. I can’t see a world in which those sets of players would be swapped for each other. And that’s why I just don’t think that there’s going to be a trade match there. I’d love to have Burger, for instance. Would have liked them to have taken a shot on Burger last year before the Marlins did, but no. Uh I I just don’t think so. I really don’t. All right, that’s going to do it for today. Thank you to all the Everydayers out there. You are the best part of doing this show. Keep an eye out for the Everyday Club launching this December. And remember, we’re serious about Pirates baseball because somebody has to be. Let’s go Bucks.

Pittsburgh Pirates gear up for a historic spending spree—could a payroll jump to $100 million finally change the club’s fate? With eyes on free agents like J.T. Realmuto and trade targets such as Anthony Santander, the team is carpet-bombing the market and aggressively seeking impact talent. Will Bob Nutting and Ben Cherington deliver a roster fans can believe in, or risk being left in the spotlight for all the wrong reasons?

Gary Morgan explores how league-wide pressure, a looming salary floor, and roster construction mistakes are forcing the Pirates to act. The episode analyzes Mitch Keller’s trade calculus, why keeping his innings matters, and examines prospects, including Oneil Cruz’s power and development trajectory. Plus, get insights on potential Marlins deals, the importance of a clubhouse “ambassador,” and why adding thump to the lineup is non-negotiable. Can the Pirates change the narrative at last?

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Pittsburgh Pirates, Pirates spending, Pirates news, Mitch Keller, O’Neill Cruz, JT Realmuto, Kyle Schwarber, Anthony Santander, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis, Paul Skenes, Nick Gonzalez, Luis Robert, Sandy Alcantara, Marlins trade, MLB rumors, MLB offseason, Pirates payroll, Locked On Pirates, Pirates podcast, MLB news, Pirates free agents, MLB trades