What can we do with $50 Million?

On Thursday morning, Bruce Levine told 670 The Score that the Cubs are between $50 to $60 million removed from an estimated 2026 payroll. Leaving around $10 million as a buffer for any trade deadline acquisitions, Levine projects that the Cubs have room to spend around $45 million this offseason. Will they? I have hope that they’ll be invested enough into certain mid-to-high market guys to hand them a $20-$30 million AAV, and we’ve seen them come close. They reportedly were willing to go up to $200 million for Cease this offseason, along with reports from last offseason that they offered Alex Bregman a 4-year, $120 million deal. When the right guys come up, I think the Cubs will spend. After all, Kyle Tucker was supposed to be the “right guy” until his slumps killed the front office’s interest.

Before we bring up possible names in the free agent and trade markets, we have to understand what the Cubs are looking for. They’ve made it very clear that they would be comfortable with their offense as it stands, and view Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros as big parts of their future. If they really do want to keep both, this almost completely eliminates any chances that they’ll land a top-of-rotation starter in a trade. I do, however, see a situation where they trade one of them (more likely Caissie), but this comes with a lot of “ifs”.

I mean that’s if they trust Seiya in right field and move Ballesteros to DH full-time. They could instead trade Ballesteros to put Caissie in RF and keep Seiya at DH, but after reports last deadline of a MacKenzie Gore deal not going through because of the Cubs’ stubbornness to include Ballesteros in a trade, I can’t imagine that’ll happen. I don’t want to rule out a trade for someone like Edward Cabrera, but I highly doubt a package of Caissie and a Ben Brown-caliber pitcher would be that exciting for the Marlins to give up three years of control for.

So if we should focus on the remaining free agent pitchers for now, who’s available? With Cease off the board, the pitching market is headlined by the likes of Framber Valdez, Michael King, and Zac Gallen. In the days leading up to the Winter Meetings, there’s been a good amount of smoke around the Cubs and Michael King, so we should look at him first.

After a down-year in 2025 where he only pitched 73 innings, King is likely looking at a 3-5 year deal with an AAV around $20 million. More than the Taillon deal, but less than the Darvish contract from years ago. This fits very well into the $45 million room to play with, and despite his injury history, King feels much safer than a pitcher like Gallen. You should get an ERA in the mid-3s in 24-29 starts and a K/9 over 9 with Michael King. One thing to note too, is that King is a righty, which is a bonus when the Cubs’ rotation consists of mostly lefties.

Who would I want though? Man… Tatsuya Imai looks like he could be the best option out there. At a contract less than Cease or what Framber is projected at, I would imagine that a six-year, $160 million deal would get it done. That’s still pretty substantial, with it being a $26 million AAV for a guy who’s had some issues in the NPB with control. But hey, who in this class doesn’t have issues? He may not be as all-around perfect as Yamamoto, but he’s the next best thing.

So Imai would leave us with around $20 million left, as opposed to $25 million with King. Maybe we get a small bench piece if we don’t trade anyone, but I would imagine that the rest of the acquisitions would be bullpen-centered. If we want to spend a good amount on a closer to go with Palencia, I think spending a $12-$15 million AAV on Pete Fairbanks would be great. Add in some cheaper guys like Danny Coulombe or Gregory Soto, along with the recently-acquired Phil Maton, and I think we have a great bullpen.

So we solved practically all the pitching needs with our budget, but the offense has stayed the exact same. We would have to rely pretty heavily on guys like Suzuki, Busch, and Pete to retain, if not improve on, their 2025 selves. If we had a good owner, we could just go a little over the luxury tax and sign Bichette or Bregman, but we both know that’s not happening. If we do have a few million to add a cheap bat, I do think there’s an answer out there in the trade market.

I realize the .236 average and OBP under .300 is troubling, but I’ve seen a few people bring up OF/DH Jo Adell, and I can’t deny that he could be electric. A big argument is that Adell’s elite bat speed propels baseballs 460+ feet into the stands, bypassing the Wrigley winds. He’s a juiced up version of Patrick Wisdom, and he’ll only cost around $5 million in arbitration. His trade cost isn’t high either, as we could get away with giving the Angels a package like Jonathon Long and Jordan Wicks/Ben Brown. He wouldn’t cover every possible decline in offense that could happen to this team, but his power ceiling isn’t something this organization has seen since 2015 with Bryant and Schwarber.

I would be so satisfied with Imai and Fairbanks for our pitching needs, especially if Steele comes back around June. We don’t need to rely on over-performances, but I believe in Ballesteros and the rest of the young crew to take a step up in their first full seasons. Dare I say that a championship is incoming?