Drafting is HARD – Career fWAR of the Last 25 First Overall Picks in the MLB Draft
December 5, 2025
Drafting is HARD – Career fWAR of the Last 25 First Overall Picks in the MLB Draft
46 comments
In comparison to other leagues like the NBA or the NFL, where teams tank for first overall picks which routinely turn into franchise cornerstones, MLB top picks are never guaranteed superstars. For every cole, harper, and mauer, there’s bound to be a bush, beckham, or bullington.
Couple takeaways:
* Only a few first overall picks become legitimate superstars
* Among these 25, only Skenes, Correa, and Harper won ROY
* Pitchers show the largest variance in success – Of note, Cole has the highest WAR of any pitcher selected #1 overall in the history of the draft (price is #2).
* Prospect evaluation in the MLB is extremely unpredictable in comparison to other sports even among the most highly regarded prospects of each year
Imagine if those tanking Astros didn’t whiff in 2013 ~~and 2014~~, that team could have been even scarier than it was.
If only Royce Lewis didn’t get injured a million times
I feel like I’m pretty in tune with baseball…I’ve never heard of ‘Bryan Bullington’ in my life
Astros getting the first pick 3 years in a row is wild. All time tank job.
Imagine how much WAR Carlos Correa would’ve accumulated by now if he wasn’t always hurt.
Freaking Tim Beckham, what a bum
Damn Bryce is the earliest first overall left in the game, I know he came up young but it’s crazy how time goes
[deleted]
baseball* is hard
I really wanted Jackson Holliday to be better than he is
He’s such a cutie
Crazy how good Joe Mauer was
What a bum Willits. You too Bazzana.
I know a lot of Dbacks fans feel as if J-Up was a bust, but I think this helps contextualize R1P1 draft chances in baseball. There’s a long way between amateur baseball and MLB and he had a solid overall career. Baseball is just freaking hard.
I think if every team could guarantee the first overall pick had a career like Justin Upton they would take it like 99% of the time. Hard to pass up a bonafide everyday starter with ASG level talent upside
There should be an asterisk that Matt Bush was drafted as a SS and earned the WAR as a pitcher
Rick Ankiel went the other way and was in the other thread, his asterisk should be a paragraph lol
Something unique to baseball is teams selecting guys based on signability or trying to game the draft money pool.
These aren’t all necessarily the consensus best guys in the draft.
Can someone explain why Henry Davis was drafted so high and hasn’t produced?
Matt Bush had Ryan Leaf vibes for San Diego. Interesting ride for that guy. Talent wasted.
It’s fascinating how Bryce Harper is an upper percentile guy in terms of living up to the hype for a rookie and #1 draft pick, and a genuine face of a franchise… And yet he’s still nowhere close to being the Micheal Jordan of baseball, and has been totally surpassed by tonnes of far lower hype players.
I’d like to see a similar graphic of top fWAR in each draft year and their position in the draft.
Oh damn, I was about to correct Dansby Swanson’s draft team.
But I’ll be damned, he was drafted by the D’Backs, then traded to the Braves as a prospect.
Totally forgot that.
I had no idea how fresh to the scene David Price was during the Rays playoff run in ’08
As someone that very casually follows the draft, I remember the sure thing hype around Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Upton, Tim Beckham, Strasburg and Harper, and Appel
Rutschman was #1 over BWJ at #2. Going to be interesting to see if he bounces back from the last few years of regression.
Demon Young playing 10 years and having negative WAR is impressive.
How was Delmon Young negative? I remember him being a pretty solid player.
Retired in 2018, debuted in 2022 is a funny description.
1 HOFer, 1 going to be a HOFer, 3 Hall of very good, and 1 let’s see what happens and 1 asterisk, and Skenes.
Isn’t Ken Griffey Jr the first ever number one pick to make the Hall of Fame?
But is there a first pick in a different round with better results?
*Prays in Bazzana*
Correa’s asterisk also has another meaning
I’m surprised the Marlins haven’t had the first overall pick.
I have some hope for Micky Moniak
I wanna see a chart of which organizations has done the best at drafting overall
Have to remember that some guys are taken #1 due to cost, not because the evaulators failed to evaluate. Most of the actual #1/#1 talents have done well.
Moores balked at the Verlander price tag.
Buster Posey priced himself out of #1/#1 the night before at 12m to scare off the Rays.
Jesus Paul
Just read the wiki on Matt Bush holy cow he should never have gotten so many chances and yet kept getting them over and over again.
Wear your helmets Motorcyclists, can save your life!
Dbacks traded away our only 2 number 1 picks to the Braves for nothing lol
Mize still has time. Moniak was such a disappointment. I expected so much more from him
Here’s the complete list of #1 draft picks starting with the institution of the draft in 1965. First pick was Rick Monday.
Best player on the list is either Griffey Jr. or A-Rod (who would obviously be an HoFer except for the whole steroids thing). None of the first 15 years of picks yielded any major stars until 1980 (Darryl Strawberry).
46 comments
In comparison to other leagues like the NBA or the NFL, where teams tank for first overall picks which routinely turn into franchise cornerstones, MLB top picks are never guaranteed superstars. For every cole, harper, and mauer, there’s bound to be a bush, beckham, or bullington.
Couple takeaways:
* Only a few first overall picks become legitimate superstars
* Among these 25, only Skenes, Correa, and Harper won ROY
* Pitchers show the largest variance in success – Of note, Cole has the highest WAR of any pitcher selected #1 overall in the history of the draft (price is #2).
* Prospect evaluation in the MLB is extremely unpredictable in comparison to other sports even among the most highly regarded prospects of each year
Imagine if those tanking Astros didn’t whiff in 2013 ~~and 2014~~, that team could have been even scarier than it was.
If only Royce Lewis didn’t get injured a million times
I feel like I’m pretty in tune with baseball…I’ve never heard of ‘Bryan Bullington’ in my life
Astros getting the first pick 3 years in a row is wild. All time tank job.
Imagine how much WAR Carlos Correa would’ve accumulated by now if he wasn’t always hurt.
Freaking Tim Beckham, what a bum
Damn Bryce is the earliest first overall left in the game, I know he came up young but it’s crazy how time goes
[deleted]
baseball* is hard
I really wanted Jackson Holliday to be better than he is
He’s such a cutie
Crazy how good Joe Mauer was
What a bum Willits. You too Bazzana.
I know a lot of Dbacks fans feel as if J-Up was a bust, but I think this helps contextualize R1P1 draft chances in baseball. There’s a long way between amateur baseball and MLB and he had a solid overall career. Baseball is just freaking hard.
I think if every team could guarantee the first overall pick had a career like Justin Upton they would take it like 99% of the time. Hard to pass up a bonafide everyday starter with ASG level talent upside
There should be an asterisk that Matt Bush was drafted as a SS and earned the WAR as a pitcher
Rick Ankiel went the other way and was in the other thread, his asterisk should be a paragraph lol
Something unique to baseball is teams selecting guys based on signability or trying to game the draft money pool.
These aren’t all necessarily the consensus best guys in the draft.
Can someone explain why Henry Davis was drafted so high and hasn’t produced?
Matt Bush had Ryan Leaf vibes for San Diego. Interesting ride for that guy. Talent wasted.
It’s fascinating how Bryce Harper is an upper percentile guy in terms of living up to the hype for a rookie and #1 draft pick, and a genuine face of a franchise… And yet he’s still nowhere close to being the Micheal Jordan of baseball, and has been totally surpassed by tonnes of far lower hype players.
I’d like to see a similar graphic of top fWAR in each draft year and their position in the draft.
Oh damn, I was about to correct Dansby Swanson’s draft team.
But I’ll be damned, he was drafted by the D’Backs, then traded to the Braves as a prospect.
Totally forgot that.
I had no idea how fresh to the scene David Price was during the Rays playoff run in ’08
As someone that very casually follows the draft, I remember the sure thing hype around Delmon Young, Matt Bush, Upton, Tim Beckham, Strasburg and Harper, and Appel
Rutschman was #1 over BWJ at #2. Going to be interesting to see if he bounces back from the last few years of regression.
Demon Young playing 10 years and having negative WAR is impressive.
How was Delmon Young negative? I remember him being a pretty solid player.
Retired in 2018, debuted in 2022 is a funny description.
1 HOFer, 1 going to be a HOFer, 3 Hall of very good, and 1 let’s see what happens and 1 asterisk, and Skenes.
Isn’t Ken Griffey Jr the first ever number one pick to make the Hall of Fame?
But is there a first pick in a different round with better results?
*Prays in Bazzana*
Correa’s asterisk also has another meaning
I’m surprised the Marlins haven’t had the first overall pick.
I have some hope for Micky Moniak
I wanna see a chart of which organizations has done the best at drafting overall
Have to remember that some guys are taken #1 due to cost, not because the evaulators failed to evaluate. Most of the actual #1/#1 talents have done well.
Moores balked at the Verlander price tag.
Buster Posey priced himself out of #1/#1 the night before at 12m to scare off the Rays.
Jesus Paul
Just read the wiki on Matt Bush holy cow he should never have gotten so many chances and yet kept getting them over and over again.
Wear your helmets Motorcyclists, can save your life!
Dbacks traded away our only 2 number 1 picks to the Braves for nothing lol
Mize still has time. Moniak was such a disappointment. I expected so much more from him
Here’s the complete list of #1 draft picks starting with the institution of the draft in 1965. First pick was Rick Monday.
Best player on the list is either Griffey Jr. or A-Rod (who would obviously be an HoFer except for the whole steroids thing). None of the first 15 years of picks yielded any major stars until 1980 (Darryl Strawberry).
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_first_overall_Major_League_Baseball_draft_picks)
Imagine if Houston hits on those picks after Correa.
I will always be salty about the Nationals getting #1 pick with the 2 of the most sure things prospects ever.
And then in 2011 Rendon falling inexplicably to #6 lmaooo fuck em.
Tf are the pirates doing to #1 picks
TIL Delmon Young has negative WAR despite a 10 year career
Baseball is hard