Is Troy Melton untouchable? Should the Tigers upgrade their outfield? | Tiger Territory

Is Troy Melton untouchable? Should the Tigers upgrade their outfield? | Tiger Territory

[Music] and welcome in to another episode of Tiger Territory, part of the Foul Territory Network, a Detroit Tigers podcast. I am Kling. With me as always, a man who just recently turned down the Penn State head football coaching position to do this podcast. Really grateful for that. He is Cody Senhagen. How you doing? Believe it or not, I think I would take that job just for the buyout when I inevitably get fired, but I guess not everyone agrees. Yeah. Well, you know, it’s uh it’s it’s hard sledding over there in state college. So, anyway, let let’s kind of dive in. Cody, we’re on the cusp of of of winter meetings and we know there’s going to be a lot a lot of me on the bone and things are going to happen. That happens every year. We know this. So, we’re we’re still kind of, you know, right there. We’re almost there, Cody. We’re almost there. But there are a couple things that we can discuss that have happened uh since last we spoke. And one of them is that Ryan Hley, we know he agreed to a contract with the Baltimore uh Orioles and he actually kind of spoke because we speculate. It’s like, well, why did he not go with the Tigers? He not agree with the plan, you know, blah blah blah. Well, he put it out there for us so we don’t have to speculate. So, again, credit to Ryan for for being really transparent. I appreciate it, man. Uh and and and and I’m going to read the quote right now here, Cody. This was at his introductory press conference. Detroit was in on me heavy starting uh for starting, excuse me. Detroit was in on me heavy for starting. I weigh the options and the risk and they didn’t seem to line up with where I was at in my career and what we were really looking at as a team with Werman. Wiserman being uh his his agency. So uh in regards to the Orioles, you know, we had some good discussions. uh they didn’t lay out a full detailed plan in our meeting before I signed, but they had some ideas and they had the resource to help me get back to where I want to be and help me get to the feel on my fast ball and maybe add a pitch or two or refine something. So, it seems like looking at those words, Cody, that the Tigers put on maybe fullcourt press is a little uh is a little strong, but he did use the word heavy. So, you know, like I I I I believe him when he says that the Tigers tried here. They they tried with infrastructure. they tried with uh what I assume were dollars and cents. Uh but he just ultimately he he just did not want to do it and and and you can’t fault him for that and you can’t fault the Tigers here for this doesn’t feel like a missing out aspect, I guess, is what I’m getting at here. Um yeah, I don’t know. I still think it’s unfortunate Hley didn’t sign. I think it’s interesting he said it wasn’t worth the risk. I there is some degree of risk making a transition like that. Uh, but I think his future earning potential would be greater if he were able to successfully become a starter. And again, if it didn’t work in Detroit, I believe part of the plan was, okay, we’ll send you back to the bullpen. Now, it does sound like he’s kind of getting handed a ninth inning job in Baltimore and probably more of a traditional ninth inning role than anyone would ever have in Detroit. So, maybe that was part of it. He is sticking with the familiarity of what he’s always done. But as we talked about at length last week, it puts the Tigers in an interesting position. Fron Valdez is out there. Ranger Suarez is out there. Two pretty good lefties you could pay up for. But if you don’t get one of those two, where are you turning? Where are you pivoting? Michael King, he’s the name the Tigers have been linked to the most. There is some legit interest there. A lot of teams like Michael King because he has really good stuff. Um, and if you don’t get him, then you’re you’re shooting toward that middle part of the market, which I think can be pretty dangerous. Um, we’ll see what kind of year Helsley has. Maybe the Tigers will get someone who will end up better. Uh, but as it stands, you know, I I I just think it’s unfortunate that this didn’t come together. It was a good idea from the Tigers and other teams who were thinking along those lines. Yeah. And I would imagine that this is not probably one of the first and it won’t be the last kind of guy that they, you know, at least internally and and even get get to the point of of making that fullcourt press to try to do this because again, this is a this is a front office that is not afraid to think outside the box for better or or for worse. So, some some in the industry are pointing toward Brad Keller as another reliever who could starting. Had a really nice year with the Cubs last year. Um last offseason the Tigers had had some level of interest in Michael Sarroka who had somewhat been a swing man and convert converted to starting did not have a very good year but he could be another name to watch. Um if you’re looking for something like that be really interested to see if they have another creative option up their sleeves as opposed to um the cash money option that it might take to get another guy of this caliber. Yeah. And I also like what you mentioned there about King and it’s like you know that that top of the market I just do I really do feel like that’s going to that’s going to slide down fast and you’re going to there’s we’ve talked about this before but there’s a very real possibility that you’re you know yeah at at the dance looking for a date you know because like everyone was asked pretty quickly you know so like I I do kind of have I have a little bit of anxiety about that you know as we get into winter meetings but I did I did want to Make note of this too, Cody, because sometime like this is something we know, but we don’t always kind of get it spoken that frankly. So, I like to kind of like emphasize it a little bit. And in the quote from uh from Helley, you know, what we were looking at for as a team with Waserman. So, like sometimes it’s worth it’s something like sometimes it’s worth remembering, but these guys like they’re not just agents that like negotiate contracts. And we talked about this with TKO a little bit last year and his relationship to to Boris Co. which is like these these agencies kind of operate as their own baseball information systems and then they dict and I don’t say dictate but they steer in, you know, as a part of their service for their clients. They steer in a direction that their it’s like their internal numbers match what the teams you know are saying and blah blah blah blah. It’s not just like, all right, uh, we offer you this many years and this many million dollars. Actually, here’s our counter offer. We want this many years, this many million dollars. It’s a lot more complex with that. And so, the fact that he mentioned that I it like it was like another light bulb moment. It’s like, oh yeah, duh. But we don’t like talk in those terms as much. Does that make sense? Yeah, absolutely. Worth pointing out something not a lot of people probably realize is agencies, particularly the big ones, have very robust, they have their own scouting departments. They have their own analytics departments. They are looking at very similar things teams are to make these markets happen to uh help develop their players and to ultimately play matchmaker in free agency. So maybe that played a role here. Ryan Hley’s agent is Nick Chanick of Wasserman that happens to be the same agent as one Javier Bayz. So there’s a lot of familiarity with the Tigers and Scott Harris and AJ Hinch and what they are all about. This is an agent they know well and he knows them well. I don’t think that means anything negative um about the Tigers or the relationship, but as Helley said, sounds like they were looking for something different. Sounds like they were most comfortable with him being a closer. Yeah, I agree. Sorry. I’m fighting off some spam calls right now. Don’t they know I’m recording a podcast? Anyway, uh let’s uh let let’s pivot to what uh what we talked about last week, Cody. We we I gave some trade ideas for uh for acquiring Catel Marte and and we our social media team put out a video of one of my proposals and and I got to say and I mean this as like a compliment. It was not popular like uh it it was not popular. I’m just going to kind of read some some comments. Uh not pumped about this when second base is in a position of need. Rather keep these guys for other options. That’s from Ron uh from Chelsea. There’s like eight A’s in there. Uh anyone trading for Melton for anyone trading Melton for a position like that is out of their freaking minds. So there you go. No thanks. Uh pitching his area need don’t want to give up a pitcher. Don’t need uh I don’t even want to say this because I don’t I don’t know if that’s true, but you know, accusations personally about Marte as a uh as as it comes to being a ball player. a couple Bugs Bunny gifts where he’s like yelling no, you know. Uh, let’s see. Some a couple people did it. Somebody said, “This was mean. Nobody wants Max.” I like Max. I I don’t I don’t want to disparage Max like that front of the podcast. I put him in there because I value him as a as a prospect. Um, every team is asking for Melton and Harris ain’t giving him up. Uh, we should be prepared for another mediocre off season. I wouldn’t give up on Melton either. This is from uh misunderstood mastermind. Uh so I tell you and uh some people wanted to get rid of green instead of uh instead of like Colt Keith, you know, but yeah, basically the consensus I got from the comments, Cody, is that the fan base is very high on Troy Melton. And again, I want to emphasize I I made him sort of the centerpiece of the trade to make it attractive. Not because I don’t think Melton is good, right? And uh and I wouldn’t claim to be a Melton truther. That’s a that’s a you thing. That’s uh that’s the the the guys at the Tigers minor league report, also friends of the podcast have been on for years. So like this is not like, oh yeah, let’s get rid of Melton. But again, you got to give value to get value. But I I did find that interesting. is almost like a mailbag where you see where the fans minds are at. The comments you could tell Melton, you might be in the running for Tiger of the Year. Like like everybody loves him and I like him too. I like him too. I I like him too. I wouldn’t move him unless it were, you know, some some sort of crazy deal. But to play devil’s advocate, I guess with myself, is it possible that we all fell too in love with Troy Melton based on a small sample in the major leagues? Melton had a 276 erra in 45 and twothirds innings. That’s pretty good. You look at some of his underlying stuff, stuff plus 107 that indicate he’s an he could be an all-star level pitcher. But again, 276 RA, his XRA 3.61. His FIP 4.60. His XIP 4.53. He only struck out about seven batters per nine in the major leagues. struggled to miss bats against uh against right-handed batters. It was a little bit of a problem. Uh the 198 babup against him. So, as good as he was, there was reason to believe luck was on Troy Melton’s side and his first taste of the majors. And we did talk a lot about his usage going from relief to starting and being kind of jerked around a little bit. Next year is going to be different for him. I think he has the arm talent and the type of robust arsenal that he could be really good. Um, but if you wanted to knock Troy Melton there, it’s not that hard to find a few reasons. Yeah, it look dude sometimes like I take general macro trends like seriously and I try to apply them to the to the to the micro situation. And the the list of young pitchers who show promise that you could have gotten some robust position player for like in theoretical trades or trades that uh you know made it to the 15 yard line is long, right? And there’s a recent example of that, you know, you know, uh, reportedly, uh, with the Tigers within the past like 10 years, right? And in, you know, involves a guy that, you know, they’re connected to right now in free agency. So, I’m just saying like it’s a little bit of a cautionary tale, but again, you’re talking about Michael Fulmer there. That would be a Fulmer reference. Yes. Fulmer. And Fulmer had won a Rookie of the Year. he had achieved a high level of success. Whereas it is easy to to fall in love with young pitchers. I mean five years ago if someone would have tried to trade for Casey Mai it would have been an instant hang up the phone. Casey Mai he’s been perfectly adequate. Um you know but yeah I I see your point here. It’s easy to fall in love with young pitchers and you don’t always know exactly what they are going to end up being. Yeah I will say this. I believe in the I mean obviously I believe in the stuff of of Melton like that’s apparent but like when I was at that Cleveland series uh you know he gets shellacked and then the next day I’m like I want to see what his body language is you know like how how is how is he and you you could not tell you know that he that in his postseason debut like he got tagged you know what I mean and I thought and I was actually really impressed by that just like not like you know he’s just walking from the dugout to the bullpen and just like you know like his demeanor and all that stuff. So, I came away really impressed with how he handles that and that is an asset in his favor in my mind that he’s going to be able to handle, you know, what will be Young Struggles being a firsttime fulltime starter in the major leagues as he’s a slider right now. So, I just want to make note of that. I like Melton just for the record. I do as well. Not sure there’s a lot more to say on it. I doubt he’s getting traded for Catel Marte. All right, it is time for our unsponsored so far, contractually obligated TKO update of the week and this comes from our friends at PTI, Michael Wilbon, Tony Cornheiser. There’s a video that is circulating on ESPN socials where it says the Tigers have to listen to trade offers for Terk Scubble and that is your update, your contractually obligated update on the Ter Scoo situation. I I I tend to agree. I guess you have to listen PTI for content now. You you don’t have to listen. You could say no, we’re not going to listen. And so I do, for as much as it it doesn’t seem like there’s any steam for Ter Scubble actually being traded, I come back to what I’ve said about this all along is that should the Tigers be picking Elaine? Seems like they’re closer toward keeping him than they are trading him, but listening to offers, all that, and if he’s going to stick around. So far, key word, so far, it doesn’t seem like there’s an indication that the Tigers are approaching this off season any differently than they have previous offseasons under Scott Harris. We have no idea what they’re doing on the position player side. There’s been very little chatter. Maybe they could go after a big name, but it doesn’t seem like they are hellbent on making that happen. And pitching wise, again, there’s no been no tangible connections to them at the top of the market for a bonafide number two like a Valdez or a Suarez. Um, it seems like they’re playing the middle ground a little bit, which does worry me. So, on that’s funny. It’s a great setup here because uh ESPN put out their like pre-winter meetings rankings and the Tigers are about where you expect. They had them number uh number 10 and they’re 57% to make the playoffs, 4.2%. Obviously, this is meaningless, but 4.2% to to w to win the World Series. But this is from Bradford Doolittle, who basically just copied what you said right there. Here’s what the Tigers should do this offseason. That’s like the todo section. First, the Tigers need to not trade Terk Scooel. That’s easy enough to do. Signing him to a fat extension would also be nice. Otherwise, what are we doing here? So, so there you go. That’s a pickle lane. Uh that’s a that’s a pickle lane. Uh a couple sentences right there, Cody. Uh, and then I will I will mention, you know, they talk, you know, Tiger, he mentions that the Tigers are going to rely on young hitters to continue to progress. We know that. Uh, but in terms of adding somebody to the roster, he throws out the name Isaiah Ker Falefa, uh, excuse me, Isaiah Ker Falefa. And I did a little research on that. I can’t say I see a large amount of merit for bringing in IKF for this team right now. That’s like my initial gut. He does not strike out. That’s a good trait. We have, if you’re watching on YouTube, we have his uh his fan graphs page up and including with projections uh if you’re interested in those. But you doing a 0.5 war player, Karen? Uh, I mean, not really. Like like, no offense, bro, but like like that doesn’t like that’s like the definition of not moving the needle, is it not? So, and then you’re like, okay, he’s a right-handed bat. He’s a veteran. Like, all right, what’s he do against left-handed pitching? Well, let’s just go to last season. And I look through career arcs for guys that have been in the in in the league as long as he has. Last season against left-handed pitching, he had a 536 OPS. Against right-handed pitching is 668. So, I mean, he’s a veteran. He can play shortstop, but the Tigers have a veteran who can play shortstop. His name’s Jav Bias. and and and certainly would have higher, you know, I guess you would say like higher volatility, but the highs are higher, you know, so it it doesn’t it doesn’t really spark me as something like, oh, okay, that seems like a shrewd move bringing in IKF. But yeah, and I I’m actually glad Bradford Doolittle threw this out just because I’ve been kind of trying to think of if they don’t get Bregman or Bashette and they’re not going to trade away a member of their core, is there any move that makes sense? Is there a lesser move to bolster the roster a little bit? Let’s say they don’t like Hassan Kim, they don’t trust his arm, anything like that. And I’ve had a hard time coming up with names. Kind of like I’ve talked about maybe we should be looking more at shortstop. Oh, Kinder Fle is a shortstop. Plays above average defense there. But yeah, um the bat is pretty much non-existent. Uh career-high WRC plus is 93. That’s still 7% below league average. He does make contact, but he doesn’t walk at all. A 3% clip the last two years. And there’s no power. Um, Jav Bayz can a bad version of Jav Bayz can give you pretty similar offensive production. Um, the defense actually doesn’t grade out quite as well, but uh the the eye test with Jav is still certainly very good at shortstop. You’d be I I don’t know what in the world the upside of a player like Isaiah Kinder Fa is, especially when you have a bunch of infield prospects on the way. I would rather have Kevin McGonagle play shortstop all year, every day. I think than Isaiah kind of fluff. Yeah. Hard for me to to disagree with you there. Well, speaking of that, uh you know, I was looking at Jeff Passen’s and and Kylie contributed to this too, like their sort of like offseason prime or uh trade candidate like primer thing and obviously Scoo’s on there. Uh, but there’s a lot of outfielders that fit this category and almost every outfielder that that was in the top 12 or whatever. Like again, they’re not saying sources say they’re just saying best fits. So, it’s independent of any of anything that you know people they’re not like reporting interest or anything. So, I just want to make that clear. Uh but almost every out there in there from the Buckston to the Durans like you know gets mentioned with uh with the Tigers as a you know best fit team. So we agree that there’s like crowd crowdedness in the infield and we don’t talk about the outfield as much because they’re all young and you know kind of guys that at least some part of it you uh like kind of are banking on to kind of lead your team a little bit. But I guess I can’t rule out like bringing in an outfielder I can’t say is like a bad idea, right? Because you you had like you don’t know what you’re going to do with Parker Meadows. I’m not really sure what wa water finding its level is for Riley Green. And then how much can you trust the health and the defense of a Carrick Carpenter? So, like in a way it does make kind of sense to attack the outfield as a u as a point of improving your team unorthodoxily I guess in in somewhat of a way. But does that like does that like make any sense to you? Do you see like as something that like the Tigers could do is like target like an outfield name be a trade or or you know even free agency. I guess we can’t rule out free agency either. Since you said unorthodoxily, I’ll I’ll use a double negative. It doesn’t not make sense. Like, if you could upgrade your outfield, why why not? The problem is it doesn’t leap out at you as their biggest need. Riley Green, love him or hate him, pretty talented young player in left field. Carrie Carpenter, imperfect as he is, pretty good player in right field with Wel Perez, who does a lot of good things. Parker Meadows, flat as he is, a lot of upside there. Matt Verling’s going to be back this year. um you have a pretty solid outfield as it stands. So, what is a clear upgrade and who’s going to play less as a result? I I would almost think it would have to mean somehow trading a Riley Green or a Carrie Carpenter, which I don’t really see happening. Um, if you were going to bring in some sort of upgrade, center field does loom as the one position where I could I could be talked into it and we’ve talked about Jiren Durant before and I think that could make some sense. I just don’t know what the price tag is. um or what it would take to to Exactly. So, not counting on that happening either, but I think center field is somewhat of a need. I just think there’s only a select few center fielders I would rather have than just rolling the dice on Parker Meadows with some Jav Bayas and Matt Verling to back it up. Um I don’t think the Tigers are going to pay Kyle Tucker, but uh if they wanted to, would they be better for it? At least next year they would. So, that’s kind of that’s kind of the argument. It’s kind of a team building philosophical view. Sure, they could be better in the outfield, but it doesn’t seem like the way uh Scott Harrison company have aimed to build this roster is by uh making something that’s good going out proactively spending or giving away assets to make it better. They’d rather let these guys continue to develop. There’s one name that you didn’t mention in there that, you know, I guess kind of figures to be somewhat of a factor and and certainly a factor in any decision making that would be involved with trading for an outfielder, specifically an up the middle outfielder. That’d be Max Clark. He’s he’s coming too. Always move to to right in a couple years if you have another plus center fielder or vice versa. But that’s part of the equation. Sure. Yeah. And I think with the McGonogal hype, like like it’s funny like the Clark hype is kind of trailing. It’s I mean clearly trailing the McGonogal hype, but I guarantee you come spring training like Clark’s going to steal some games like in terms of like attention and like you know he’s going to do some stuff and it’s going to be like oh man, you know, should they blah blah blah like and I don’t I think we’re aligned on this. I don’t think we anticipate him uh being like a serious candidate to like break camp with uh with the Tigers, you know, for many reasons and the same a lot of them the same as McGonogal, but McGonogal seems to have a cleaner path uh to playing time at least initially. But we’ll see. I guess you can you can’t rule anything out. You cannot rule anything out. All right, let’s uh let’s let’s wrap up with this. Cody, you had a an article that published in The Athletic that’s uh a great primer for what we’re about to experience as baseball fans and observers. Uh and that’s you you tallied some bad contracts. So, I I’m kind of curious. You you listed them worst contracts in baseball. You had some honorable mentions in there. Uh some of them are, you know, going down memory lane with like, oh, remember when you wanted that guy, you know, as a fan? So, I it’s a two-parter question. Number one, like you know, how did you kind of siphon all this out with uh with with the process? And then two, how much did Scott Harris pay you to write a cautionary tale for giving out uh expensive and multi-year contracts uh to free agents? Uh I received zero dollars for this, and that certainly was not the goal, but it was to point out, hey, there are a lot of bad contracts out there, and it’s just kind of fun to rank them. Now, there are also some good track contracts out there. sometimes these things hit where you get right. Um I think you know there there was a time when I was like yeah I don’t know if I’d sign any player for longer than seven years and it’s because so many of those deals end up on that list and there are becoming I think fewer of those when you’ve seen deals for Miguel Cabrera and Albert Puhol age so poorly. Um but sometimes that’s what it takes the extra years to get players. I’m all for players getting what they are worth. If you could sign everyone to fiveyear deals at a super high AAV, maybe that would be the solution. But then someone’s always going to come in and say, “Well, hey, I really want this player, so we’re going to tack on the extra years. Give this guy security.” That’s just how the economics of baseball work. And I don’t even think that part of it is messed up despite all baseball’s other problems. It’s just that, hey, uh, the sport’s unpredictable. Just like you don’t always know how prospects are going to develop. You don’t always know how players in their prime are going to age. Some play at a very high level for a long time and some flame out very quickly. Some there are always red flags and some injuries just happen. Uh like with Mike Trout, you know, just got banged up a little bit. Just isn’t quite the same. He’s still more productive, I think, last year than people realize, but he’s very high on the worst contracts ranking. You guys can check that out on The Athletic. We only got one Tiger on there. It’s Jav Bayz. He actually went uh up the ranking, trended positively after a decent year that made his contract somewhat salvageable. So, I think he was ranked seventh on the final list. Yeah. And and again like it’s you look at the dollars and then you you know look at the whole you know the the entire the entirety of the contract and you realize how much you’ve had to change your opinion about guys like over the years just because of like you know what what has end up ended up happening. We’ve certainly had to do the the hobby reset on what’s reasonable expectations for him multiple times and that’s what made 2025 so uh remarkable in a way. So uh it’s it’s a tough game. One thing I did learn from that Kieran talking about the dangers of the middle of the market. I think teams are becoming a little bit less likely to just throw out eight, nine, 10 year deals. Um, you got to be really good to get that type of deal. But it seems like there’s been a lot of teams and maybe because of the executives who are afraid to make those deals instead of doing that. Some of them, not I’m not even talking about Scott Harris. Scott Harris so far likes his one-year deals maybe with a little player option, but a lot of teams go a tear down in free agency and you sign the the Jock Peterson or the Luis Severino or in the last couple years there have been some two or threeyear deals with a player in his 30s and it’s been underwater from day one that player has underperformed. There are a lot of those out there in just the last couple years and so that made this year’s list pretty hard. I kind of expanded the honorable mention section because there were so many three for 45, two for 40 deals um you know that that are just really bad right now. And maybe that could always change if a guy has a good season. But I think that’s a fear um when you’re shopping in the middle of the market, you can subject yourself to contracts like that. Um just like if you’re shopping at the top of the market, it can go against you. Yeah. Uh, I think I think the a lesson there is don’t get more expensive by being cheap. You know, I I think that’s a a fair that’s honestly a conclusion I had from doing this. Would you rather have four good years of a guy and six years on the back end that are really ugly or would you rather sign two guys and neither of them are that good? Like I neither one of those is great, but uh I think that’s a factor that that maybe some of these executives coming in who are do tend to be more riskadverse uh should look at and consider that the the middle of the market is a dangerous place. Now that’s also why teams um like homegrown players and the waiver wire and trying to optimize guys. This seems to be a little bit more where the Tigers have been in recent years. I I know they tried hard for Bregman and stuff last year. Um, but in terms of track record, that’s a little bit more where they lie. And so I guess that’s kind of trying to avoid both ends of those things. And then the risk there is like, well, are you ever going to get are you ever going to get elite talent? How do you know? So there’s not one right way to do it. That’s one of the beautiful things about this game. There are teams that have been built and succeeded in wildly different fashions in different markets. Um, it’s just unpredictable enough to keep everyone on their toes. Yep. And we’ll find out a lot more here in the next uh week with winter meetings. Cody will be there. We will be having podcasts obviously during the week to uh to react to everything that is going on, all the updates and and we might actually get a signer or two. We’ll see. We we shall see. But you can follow along at Cody savinghagen. I kieran_steckley pod page tiger territory YouTube Instagram. Follow, like, subscribe. We appreciate everybody for for doing so. Go to tiger territoryshop.com for all your Tiger Territory merch needs. So for Cody Steman Hagen, I’m Kley. Everybody have a great day.

The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen and cohost Kieran Steckley discuss the latest around the Detroit Tigers in the lead-up to Winter Meetings.

Hear what Ryan Helsley had to say about his courtship with the Tigers. Plus, get the reader reaction to mock trade proposals that involved Troy Melton. And could it behoove the Tigers to acquire an outfielder? Finally, Cody goes over his annual worst contracts list.

Tiger Territory is the official Detroit Tigers Podcast of the Foul Territory Network.